The defending American League champions have had a difficult first few weeks. Their 10-14 record has them in fourth place in the AL East. The relief group is a big part of that, as the Jays rank 23rd with a 4.81 bullpen ERA. They’ve blown seven leads, tied with the White Sox for third most in MLB (behind the A’s and Nationals at eight apiece).
The problems have extended to the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been charged with three blown saves, which is tied for the MLB high. That doesn’t include Tuesday’s rough outing against the Angels.
Hoffman entered with a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. After striking out Zach Neto, he allowed four consecutive batters to reach. Skipper John Schneider turned to Louis Varland with the bases loaded and a 4-2 lead. Varland promptly got Nolan Schanuel to bounce into a game-ending double play. That technically went down as a hold for Hoffman because he recorded an out and left the game with the lead, but it obviously wasn’t what the Jays wanted from their closer.
After the game, Schneider was noncommittal on sticking with the righty in the ninth. “We’ll reevaluate everything, talk with him, see how he’s doing. He’s going through it obviously a little bit,” Schneider told reporters on Wednesday (links via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Jared Greenspan of MLB.com). “We’ll see (about his role).” The skipper noted they’d take advantage of Thursday’s scheduled day off to discuss things with the pitcher.
Hoffman has made 12 appearances on the season. He has allowed at least one run in six of them. The 33-year-old righty has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) over his first 10 2/3 innings. Hoffman has given up 16 hits, walked six batters, and hit a pair on Tuesday. He has successfully locked down a trio of saves.
The bottom line results have been terrible, but Hoffman ranks near the top of the league in strikeouts. He has fanned 24 of 57 opponents, a monster 42.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, only Mason Miller has a superior strikeout rate. Hoffman’s 21.2% swinging strike percentage is also second behind Miller’s unbelievable 30.3% mark. All four of Hoffman’s pitches have missed bats and his velocity is at usual levels.
There’s clearly some amount of bad luck in Hoffman’s early results. Opponents have hit above .600 when they’ve put the ball in play. If he were coming off a dominant 2025 season, the Jays would surely give him more rope to allow the batted ball variance to even out.
However, his first year in Toronto was up and down. Hoffman recorded 33 saves but ranked second among relievers with 15 home runs allowed. He had a 4.37 earned run average across 68 regular season innings. Hoffman was excellent for the majority of the postseason until allowing the famous Miguel Rojas home run in the ninth inning of World Series Game 7 — his only homer and blown save of the playoffs.
If the Jays move Hoffman out of the ninth, Varland would be the obvious choice to replace him as the closer. Last year’s deadline pickup has begun his ’26 campaign without allowing an earned run through 13 innings. He has fanned 19 hitters against three walks. Varland has been an excellent setup man but has no closing experience. Tuesday’s one-pitch outing was the first save of his MLB career.
Varland has clearly outperformed Hoffman through a few weeks, but naming him the closer would limit Schneider’s flexibility to use him earlier in games. No Toronto pitcher has entered in higher-leverage situations on average than Varland, as the biggest at-bats aren’t always in the ninth inning. Hoffman is third in that regard, also behind the already optioned Brendon Little. The Jays also have Tyler Rogers and Braydon Fisher in key late-game roles.
How should the Jays proceed?
How should the Blue Jays approach the ninth inning?
Hoffman has got to have one of the weirdest lines you’ll see:
10.2 IP, 16 h, 24 k’s
He’s the Murakami of pitching.
2.063 WHIP, 7.59 ERA.
But has a 3.33 FIP?
I felt more at ease when Romero was closing. The FO should have replaced him in the offseason.
Some RP are not closers. Jeff Hoffman is one such pitcher.
In CLE we are finding out that Cade Smith is another pitcher who fits that description. Watching Hoffman and Smith’s machinations in the 9th this year calls to mind Craig Kimbrel’s drunken baby on a high wire act of the past 4-5 years.
Every time that he comes in with a lead that’s less than 10 runs my heart sinks. Varland has earned his shot to take his run at the closer’s job. Hoffman for now could use some extended time in low leverage situations to work things out.
Agreed. The results are the results and Varland is the guy. If not forever, definitely for now.
Varland is best as a multi inning Dellin Betwnces style imo. Rogers has earned a closer opportunity too but is also really good in his role. I say give Hoffman a few more chances then try the committee approach
What you’re talking about is a best-case scenario where the blue jays have a good closer. Which they do not. Hoffman is going to blow it, I think it’s fair to say we all know this.
Imo a closer isn’t needed if your bullpen can’t hold a lead in the first place
Yes
It absolutely must be “Cliser by committee”…
Looking at the upcoming lineup, either Rogers or Varland should be facing the toughest part if the lineup. Where possible and necessary, Varland should be handed the ball with the game on the line!!! FACT!!
Believe at the letters podcast said that it’s gonna be Varland and Fisher closing based on where they are in the lineup in the 9th
The problem is when the Jays signed him it was with the intent to start. $12.6 million is a lot of money to pay a middle reliever, they probably need to make a change but will likely stick with him hoping for better results
And as Morgan Freeman said in the Shawshank Redemption, hope is a dangerous thing.
I am not especially fussed about who the official closer is, but I do think that Jeff Hoffman has been kicking around the majors for quite some time now and, outside of those two good seasons in Philly, he’s ranged from terrible to nondescript and I don’t really think he’s a great bet to be very good in any given year. Though relievers are sufficiently random number generators that he could, I suppose.
It’s important to remember that, while TOR use him as a closer, his years in COL, CIN and PHL were not as a closer accept for a little bit. Which means, he’s not a closer. This is very much how TOR does things: a 3-time GG 2B is playing SS, a career SS is in RF, a terrible 2B is in LF. Just because you put them out there does not mean you should. I say give it to Rogers because Varland is too valuable at other parts of the game. He would be wasted at closer.
But what about my fantasy team, Deckard?
That’s a problem all across the game currently. Too many organizations moving toward most players being super utility to some degree. All that results in is functional mediocrity when it comes to defense. Front Offices and managers need to let go of the maxim that if a player is drafted as a shortstop, he can play anywhere on the diamond. The Mets are just as guilty as TOR when it comes to players out of position.
@solaris602
It’s a tale as old as baseball. SS’s that lose their arm but keep their range move to 2B. SS’s that lose their range but keep their arm move to third. I don’t like moving IF’s to the OF personally.
I vote they demote him to AAA to work things out. The guy cost them a world series, come September they’re gonna be wishing they’d done something sooner and won more games.
@Neverbe51
The FO just can’t send him down. Since he has no options they would have to designate him. I believe he has enough service time to refuse the assignment and choose free agency.
The only way to get him to AAA is make up an injury, put him on the 15 day DL then more time doing a rehab assignment. Just hope the FO doesn’t get found out.
Rogers value comes from his side arm delivery. He is better as the setup as a change of look between starters and closer. He’s best for setup between normal arm slots. Varland is the best reliever and proven trust from postseason and high ceiling. Hoffman needs to figure out the control before getting high leverage. Otherwise, Hoffman has been dominating with K rate, but needs to move away from 9th inning role.
I’d keep Hoffman there longer, but I will move him if I feel like I must
Alotta preseason favorites are off to slow starts
Jays, m’s, phils, muts
redsox are last in divison (thanks for ruining devers career boston! Hope you’re happy on pace for 100L)
Reds, braves in 1s
Sacramento tied for 1st
Rays over 500
Long season but good to see small markets doing well
Watching Hoffman try to close out a game is one of baseball’s most entertaining moments. It would be a shame losing it.
So Varland has been the best performer and has faced the highest leverage. And people want to demote him to an inning role usage? Maybe you keep him in your back pocket more often in case your closer makes a mess, but if the leverage is high and the heart of the order is due up in the 7th or 8th, why not stop the other team in their tracks right there with your best guy? Why play matchups in every inning except the ninth?
Because Hoffman has been just SO bad, and it’s what he – and the team needs; it is a tough situation
Louis can do no wrong right now, and yeah it hurts to lose him in that role – but we’ve got to see what happens! call it a committee, and try to rest Louis, but, he is the guy
How can you stick with Hoffman?
Yesavage they should.
they’re going with a committee