Cubs Bedard/Roberts Talks Revived?
UPDATE, 1-21-08 at 6:39pm: According to Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald, "informed insiders say no renewed talks are underway" for a Cubs/Orioles blockbuster. Miles does believe Hendry is shopping Murton and interested in Byrd.
UPDATE, 1-21-08 at 4:37pm: John Hickey of the Seattle PI notes that the Mariners seem to "very much want Bedard" still. He sees the Mets as their main competition.
FROM 1-21-08 at 3:09pm:
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune insists that Orioles owner Peter Angelos did shoot down some kind of Erik Bedard/Brian Roberts to the Cubs blockbuster last week. Furthermore, Rogers’ source says the talks are now back on.
Rogers speculates that "frustration and gamesmanship" might be why Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry recently denied the blockbuster rumor. Hendry was quoted as saying "that certainly hasn’t been a path we’ve been on."
Rogers also has sources saying the Cubs may have to give up Matt Murton and one or two other players to get Marlon Byrd from Texas (perhaps Sean Gallagher). He speculates that a three-team deal with the Rangers and Orioles to net the Cubs Bedard, Roberts, and Byrd is a possibility. Felix Pie would have to be in that mix, and note that Roch Kubatko said yesterday that the Cubs "would be willing to part with Rich Hill" to get Bedard and Roberts.
Through all of this Rogers says it’s a "very highly placed source" and that he trusts the source. It’s hard for me to really evaluate this stuff until we get more clarity. But feel free to discuss.
Yukinaga Maeda To Throw For MLB Teams
Yukinaga Maeda is a 37 year-old southpaw reliever who was recently released by the Yomiuri Giants. He hasn’t been any good in Japan lately; Aaron and Jackson of East Windup Chronicle told us:
His ’07 season was marked by a series of call-ups and send-downs, and going on 38 years old, it’s hard to see this guy making a huge contribution.
Nonetheless, Maeda hopes to try his hand at Major League Baseball. This article (link in Japanese) says he’ll be throwing for multiple MLB teams in the coming days, the Rangers included. Loyal reader Patrick, who sent this along and translated, told me, "I go back and forth between thinking this guy has a slim chance of making it to an MLB team, and no chance." What can I say, it’s a slow rumor day for some reason.
Wittenmyer On Byrd, Roberts, Bedard
Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times gives his take on the odds of various rumored Cubs acquisitions:
For now, the Marlon Byrd move looks possible, if not probable, while snagging Brian Roberts — a speedy switch-hitter whose presence could mean a three- or four-level ripple effect of improvement through the lineup — looks at least doubtful. And forget about that would-be deal that would include Orioles ace Erik Bedard. Those discussions didn’t reach the level first believed, and the Cubs don’t have the players to land both.
This is pretty much what we figured. Byrd – sure, Hendry could figure out a way to get him. Roberts would take a lot and doesn’t seem likely, while Bedard is a huge long shot. Seems the 7-for-2 rumor from Saturday is officially dead, now that both GMs have dismissed it.
Roberts to me is a 1-2 win gain for the 2008 Cubs, with an accompanying loss of most of the team’s young MLB-ready pitching (plus a decent outfielder). The Cubs might be better off keeping the pitching depth.
Odds and Ends: Colon, Byrd, Sosa, Wilkerson
Some random links and whatnot for Saturday…
- Joe Cowley says the White Sox have backed off on Bartolo Colon because he wants a two-year deal. He believes the Royals are the frontrunner.
- Rangers guru Jamey Newberg doesn’t think Marlon Byrd would be enough to get Matt Murton from the Cubs.
- The Rangers might’ve entertained Sammy Sosa in a limited role, but he’s looking for 400-500 plate appearances. Good luck with that!
- Heard an unconfirmed whisper that the Red Sox may have some interest in Brad Wilkerson.
- RotoAuthority takes a fantasy baseball look at Yovani Gallardo and Tim Lincecum.
Cubs Interested In Marlon Byrd
According to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, the Cubs asked the Rangers about Marlon Byrd. Sullivan says the Cubs may be willing to give up Matt Murton for Byrd. This swap could make sense given each team’s needs. Sullivan cautions that the discussions are only preliminary. The Byrd rumor first popped up via Bruce Levine about a week ago.
Byrd, 30, will make $1.8MM in ’08 in a newly agreed-to contract. He’s set to reach free agency after the 2009 season. He’s been with the Phillies, Nationals, and Rangers. He had decent years in ’03 and ’07. He’s not a guy you want to use in left field, but the Josh Hamilton acquisition would push him there unless he’s dealt.
Murton is under team control through 2011, if my calculations are correct. He’s a bit of a tweener in that his power is a bit light for a corner outfielder. Still, a career line of .296/.365/.455 in 289 games is interesting and there is room for growth if he’s left alone (he’s 26).
Rangers Sign Jason Jennings
UPDATE, 1-16-08 at 10:39pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Rangers have reached an agreement with Jennings for one year and $4MM. Another $4MM is possible in incentives. I like the price, and I wonder if this was one of those hometown discount situations.
FROM 1-11-08 at 12:09am:
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers "appear to be closing in on" a deal with Jason Jennings. Grant says the last hurdle before a deal is struck with the 29 year-old might be a physical. Terms are not yet known. The Dallas native earned $5.5MM in 2007.
Jennings had surgery in late August to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. He expects to be throwing by March 1st.
Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More
Time for this week’s mailbag. You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.
Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan
Funny you ask this. I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it." So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.
Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel
I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine. I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative? I don’t like the Livan idea. I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent. Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off. There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.
Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant
The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board. If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.
What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew
I’ll put it at a 10% chance. This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras. He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.
When, just when will this Santana situation be over?! It’s just killing me! – Dan
We all feel your pain Dan. Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this. I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now. Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.
Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin
C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you. If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships. Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy. So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer. Those reporters altered history.
What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus? Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler
We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May. There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training. I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.
Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew
Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season. The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense. If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.
Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve
Thankfully I did. I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites. Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.
What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks
At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been. Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.
Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005. That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.
Let’s start with the Fish. They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston. Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07. Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal. Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards. Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field. Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.
Moving on to the Rangers. Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise). Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs. Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira. In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels. Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club. And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell? Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs?
Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake. The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job. Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins. That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell. The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.
The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life. Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman. Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett? Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.
By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy. Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.
I’m dizzy. Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation? Any juicy consequences I missed?
Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos
Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today. I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards. You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.
- UmpBump explains why they expect Manny Ramirez to retire a Red Sox.
- Matthew Cerrone provides some new Johan Santana musings.
- RotoAuthority (which I write) ranks the 78 starting pitchers you should consider in your fantasy baseball mixed league.
- The A’s, admitting they need bodies, will bring Kirk Saarloos back on a minor league invite. He’ll be 29 in May; his claim to fame is winning ten games for the ’05 A’s.
- The Rangers will need to make roster space for Jason Jennings; could Jason Botts be DFA’d?
Odds and Ends: Stewart, Shelton, LaRoche
Today’s smattering of random rumors and links. Question for you readers: how do you feel about the Odds and Ends posts in general? Interesting? Lame? Do you skip them, or are they worthwhile?
- Friend of MLBTR Susan Slusser quotes Shannon Stewart as saying the A’s are one of several teams in the running for his services. If you browse the ol’ free agent list, you’ll see that the other available free agent left fielders include Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Kevin Mench, Reggie Sanders, and Brad Wilkerson.
- Chris Shelton, we hardly knew ye – the Rangers have already DFA’d him. Career OPS of .825, seems the guy deserves a decent shot somewhere. Other Rangers news, Jason Jennings seems like a lock at this point.
- The Pirates and Adam LaRoche agreed at $5MM for ’08. They could still work out an extension that starts with the ’09 season.
- Wondering which service to use for your fantasy league this March? I merely started the discussion at RotoAuthority, and then commenters weighed in with tons of excellent feedback.