Coonelly: Fewer Trades For Pirates This Summer
This July's trading deadline will be the third for the Pirates' current management regime, and team president Frank Coonelly predicts it will be the least active yet. Coonelly told Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he doesn't expect the team to trade away veterans this summer, the way they moved players like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady in 2008 and 2009.
One reason for such an approach is the fact that the Pirates just don't have that many appealing veteran players left on their roster. While the club probably wouldn't mind finding a taker for players like Akinori Iwamura (.178/.289/.258) or Octavio Dotel (5.40 ERA), their 2010 performances so far will make dealing them challenging, though Dotel has been more effective lately, as Tim pointed out earlier this week.
With no fire sale imminent, Coonelly even suggests it "could be the reverse" of the past two July 31st deadlines, hinting that the Pirates could be buyers rather than sellers. For a club currently sitting in the NL Central cellar, 15 games below .500 and 11.5 games out of first place, that would be a pretty shocking move.
The more likely scenario for the Pirates is letting young players like Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, and eventually Pedro Alvarez continue to gain major league experience for the rest of the season. If the team makes a couple low-cost acquisitions this winter that work out a little better than Iwamura and Dotel have so far, there should be some optimism for 2011.
2005 Draft Throwdown
While dreams are coming true for hundreds of high school and college players this week, let's compare the paths of some 2005 first round draft picks. Nothing is more interesting than seeing how teams did choosing players at the same position. In a draft, it is the closest teams come to the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Meanwhile, those lists haunt fans' memories for years to come.
- Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) vs. Ryan Braun (Brewers): This battle between Zimmerman, picked fourth, and Braun, picked fifth, was to be a test of hot corner prowess. But while Zimmerman has excelled at the position, winning a Gold Glove in 2009 and grading well under more advanced defensive metrics, Braun settled in left field after proving to be a disastrous fielder at third base. So far, Braun has a .931 to .836 edge in OPS, but with Zimmerman putting up an .888 in 2009 and at .986 so far in 2010, that gap may well have disappeared. Moving forward, the edge goes to Zimmerman, a terrific hitter, though a notch below Braun, but a far more valuable defensive player. Both teams won here, though.
- Cameron Maybin (Tigers) vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): These high school center fielders went back-to-back, with Maybin going tenth and McCutchen going 11th. The early returns suggest that the Tigers made a poor choice here, though they ultimately packaged Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, so they're not exactly complaining. McCutchen has hit since he arrived in Pittsburgh last season, and a 23-year-old with an .847 OPS in his first 733 major league plate appearances stands an awfully good chance of being an elite player for years to come. Maybin is still immensely talented, and could turn into a star- but McCutchen already is one. Pirates win- how often do you get to read that?
- Craig Hansen (Red Sox) vs. Joey Devine (Braves): This throwdown is a lesson in the perils of college pitchers. They seem like sure things, compared to high schoolers, and from the start, the Red Sox and Braves thought they had their ninth-innings mapped out for years to come. Hansen, drafted 26th out of St. John's, has yet to find command at the major league level, with 63 walks against 70 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. The right-hander was one of the moving parts in the three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles. Hansen's troubles were baffling, until the discovery of a degenerative nerve condition that has his career in doubt. Devine, chosen 27th, got traded to Oakland for Mark Kotsay, so Atlanta didn't benefit much from choosing him, either. The Athletics got a fantastic 2008 out of Devine- a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. Tommy John surgery kept him out for 2009, but he is currently on track to return to Oakland by the end of June. Winner here? Clearly, the Athletics.
Pirates Designate Jack Taschner For Assignment
The Pirates designated Jack Taschner for assignment, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The 32-year-old left-hander posted a 6.05 ERA in 17 appearances in the majors this year. The Pirates, who struck out 14 times against Stephen Strasburg tonight, also optioned Jeff Clement to the minors.
Taschner's strikeout (7.9 K/9) and walk (3.7 BB/9) numbers are better than they have been in recent years, but he is allowing lots of hits, as usual. Though he has struggled mightily against right-handed batters in his career, Taschner's rate stats have historically been better against lefties (8.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9).
Free Agent Stock Watch: Octavio Dotel
On April 26th, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told MLBTR he felt that Octavio Dotel could provide a similar performance for similar dollars and contractual control as Matt Capps. That was the reasoning behind non-tendering Capps and signing Dotel to a one-year, $3.5MM deal with a club option for 2011.
On May 1st, Huntington's statement appeared silly. Dotel had a 10.61 ERA and three saves, while Capps boasted a 0.68 ERA and ten saves. However, the relievers' fortunes have reversed, as Dotel has a 1.93 ERA since May 1st and Capps is at 6.43. It's too early to make a final judgment on Huntington's decision, but Dotel is the same pitcher he's been for years. He'll rack up tons of strikeouts, too many walks, and too many home runs.
Dotel's club option is for $4.5MM with a $500K buyout. A $4MM net price isn't a bargain for another year of his services, but it's something the Pirates or perhaps another team will have to consider. But here's the catch, and it makes Dotel's contractual control different from that of Capps. Dotel's club option becomes a mutual option if traded. If Dotel continues pitching well, he could be dealt and decline his side of the option. He might do so in pursuit of a contract similar to the one he had with the White Sox – two years and $11MM. Another possibility: Dotel could be traded to a team that has the closer spot locked up, and then decline the option in pursuit of save chances in 2011.
Discussion: Jeff Suppan
Jeff Suppan is a free agent now, after being released by the Brewers with over $10MM remaining on his contract. Suppan's new team would be on the hook for only the pro-rated league minimum. The righty is projected by ZiPS to post a 5.40 ERA from here on out. That's not appealing, but maybe a 4.75 ERA can be coaxed out of Suppan over a half-season.
A Cardinals reunion has been bandied about by some analysts, as the team could use a rotation arm given the injuries to Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny. However, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch would be stunned if the Cardinals show interest.
How about another former team of Suppan's, the Pirates? Back at the '03 trade deadline, the Bucs sent Suppan, Brandon Lyon, and Anastacio Martinez to the Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash. The Pirates currently have Jeff Karstens and Dana Eveland at the back end of their rotation, though Brad Lincoln is on the way and Charlie Morton is on the DL. What's the point in a rebuilding team letting Suppan soak up innings at an ERA over 5.00?
The Brewers would not commit a rotation spot to Suppan, and their starters have a collective 4.82 ERA. The reality is that he is not going to jump into anyone's starting five. Suppan could instead sign a minor league deal with a club like the Astros, and hope to get the call if Brett Myers and/or Roy Oswalt are traded a month from now.
Pirates Expected To Draft Jameson Taillon
The Pirates have the second pick in today's draft, and ESPN's Buster Olney reports that they are expected to take high school pitcher Jameson Taillon. This matches predictions made this morning by Baseball America's Jim Callis and ESPN's Keith Law, though an earlier note by Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggested they were leaning toward Manny Machado. Talking to Finder, Bucs GM Neal Huntington explained that "we passed on some high school pitchers last year because, quite candidly, we didn't think they had the stuff that allowed [some] to be the exceptions."
For more on Taillon, check out Mike Axisa's post from May 29th.
Draft Links: Machado, Blue Jays, Dodgers
The first round of the MLB draft kicks off at 6pm CST today. Links to start you off, with new ones being added to the bottom of the post:
- MLB.com's Mark Newman prepares you for the festivities by outlining MLB's many facets of draft coverage. Here's a reminder of the draft order.
- The Pirates pick second, and Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes they're leaning toward shortstop Manny Machado over pitcher Jameson Taillon. GM Neal Huntington explained that they will have no problem selecting a Scott Boras client. Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun says the Orioles would then take Taillon, who they favor anyway. Jim Callis of Baseball America has a different point of view, saying the Pirates lean toward Taillon.
- The Blue Jays have the #11 pick. Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun suggests they have a big draft budget and an eye on Delino DeShields, Jr., Josh Sale, and Deck McGuire as potential first-round picks. Scouting director Andrew Tinnish is emphasizing athleticism and upside, as well as up-the-middle positions.
- Dodgers assistant GM Logan White hinted that they could again take a high school pitcher, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers have the #28 pick in the first round.
- The Tigers start at #44, having given #19 to the Astros for Jose Valverde. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press quotes scouting director David Chadd: "We have a history of being aggressive. I don't see that changing."
- Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever told Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the team will take the best available player early and will lean toward catching, lefthanded pitching, and middle infielders later. The Phils' first pick is #27.
- The Rockies are at #26, and Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says they've scouted Aaron Sanchez, Nick Castellanos, and Kevin Gausman heavily. Links on player names in this post go to MLB.com scouting reports.
- John Maffei of the North County Times deduced that the Padres might take a center fielder like Michael Choice or Kolbrin Vitek, but MLB.com's Corey Brock tweets his opinion that they will take a pitcher such as Karsten Whitson. The Padres have the #9 pick.
Draft Links: Pirates, Brewers, Red Sox
More draft news from around the web..
- The Pirates will take either shortstop Manny Machado or righthander Jameson Taillon with the second overall pick, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. Earlier today, it was reported that the Bucs were looking at Machado, or Taillon but were also considering a "college pitcher".
- The Brewers' have had countless "what if" moments in the draft in recent years, including almost nabbing Wade Davis in 2004, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
- Several Red Sox shared their memories of draft day with Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal.
- A pair of Illinois prospects should go in the early rounds of the draft, writes Mike Helfgot for the Chicago Tribune. Mike Foltynewicz, a Texas commit ranked amongst the top 50 prospects in this class by Baseball America, will likely be the first.
Odds & Ends: Fielder, Lincoln, Gorzelanny, Lee, Haren
Links for Sunday..
- The Phillies demoted Phillippe Aumont from Double-A back to High-A after a disastrous start to the season, tweets Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner. Aumont was part of the Roy Halladay–Cliff Lee blockbuster.
- Peter Barzilai of USA Today explains why the Brewers should hold on to Prince Fielder.
- This week's Pirates/Nationals matchup may end up being the most interesting series between sub-.500 teams this season. Not only will Stephen Strasburg make his major league debut on Tuesday, but Pirates GM Neal Huntington says former first-round pick Brad Lincoln could make his first big league start on Wednesday, tweets Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says the Cubs received some calls about Tom Gorzelanny's availability a few weeks ago, but that they have no immediate plans to move him.
- The newest Cardinal, Randy Winn, was a player Tony La Russa wanted the team to pursue this past winter, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- Larry Brooks of the New York Post would like to see the Mets aggressively attempt to trade for Cliff Lee.
- The Denver Post's Troy Renck hopes the Rockies will inquire on Lee, as well as Dan Haren, if only to see what would it cost to acquire another ace.
- If you play fantasy baseball, be sure to stay on top of the saves category by following our @closernews account on Twitter and tracking the latest news on late-inning relievers around the league.
Draft Links: Cox, Nats, Tigers, White Sox, Mets
As Mike Rizzo recently suggested, for baseball's general managers and scouting directors, the Super Bowl isn't eight months away — it's tomorrow. Here are a few more links in anticipation of the 2010 draft….
- Zack Cox is looking for "[Pedro] Alvarez money" which could cause him to slip in the draft, multiple sources tell Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter). Alvarez, taken second overall by the Pirates in 2008, signed a four-year deal worth $6.355MM. On top of that, Cox is said to be seeking a major league deal, tweets ESPN's Keith Law.
- The Nats will take Bryce Harper No. 1, barring any drastic changes, GM Mike Rizzo told MASN's Debbi Taylor. If they do take Harper, Washington will move him to the outfield, according to a baseball source who spoke to Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
- Despite not having a first round pick, the Tigers are confident they can find talent in the later rounds, writes MLive.com's Steve Kornacki.
- The Pirates have narrowed their choices to include Manny Machado, Jameson Taillon, or a college pitcher, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com.
- Don't be surprised to see the White Sox draft a college pitcher with the 13th pick, writes MLB.com's Scott Merkin.
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson spoke with Rizzo, who once again said that they know who they'll select first overall. Rizzo says the player doesn't know he'll be selected, though it's tough to see them passing up consensus top pick Bryce Harper. Rizzo says the second through fifteenth rounds will determine the strength of a draft, and the Nats are "fired up" about it.
- The latest updates from Fanhouse's Frankie Piliere include the Mets' and Yankees' first-round targets, and more details on the deal the Royals are working toward with Yasmani Grandal. Industry sources tell Piliere it'll be worth "upwards of" $3MM.
- The Rangers own four of the top 50 picks in the draft, but they'll be on a budget, says Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
- With the sixth pick, the Diamondbacks could be the wild card of the draft, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (Insider-only). Their top two choices appear to be Barrett Loux and Chris Sale, who MLBTR's Mike Axisa profiled last week.
- A potential first-round pick could have already been a Phillie, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
- Karen Smith of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review conducts a brief Q&A with Pirates director of scouting Greg Smith.