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17 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.

Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Dodgers

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Pirates

Rays

Red Sox

Yankees

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Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.

Reds Have Interest In Carlos Estevez

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The Reds are among the teams with interest in free agent reliever Carlos Estévez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Blue Jays and Yankees have also been tied to the All-Star righty this offseason.

Estévez is one of the better unsigned relievers. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. Estévez turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

The relief market has yet to get going in earnest. Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Estévez is arguably the #3 free agent reliever, while Kirby Yates and David Robertson will be available on short-term deals at a lofty salary.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top setup arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino.

A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll. The Reds have a few openings in the middle relief group, though. Adding another reliever is sensible, though it’s not clear if there’s room in the budget to make a legitimate push for Estévez. RosterResource calculates Cincinnati’s payroll around $106MM, about $6MM above where they finished last season. After acquiring Gavin Lux from the Dodgers this week, general manager Nick Krall said the front office has “a little bit (of flexibility), not a ton” from a payroll perspective (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Latest On Pete Alonso’s Market

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Approximately eight teams are involved in the market for Pete Alonso, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. However, Heyman suggests that most of those clubs are interested in a shorter-term, opt-out laden deal with the star slugger.

That aligns with recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that suggested that Alonso is likely to turn to a short-term contract. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote in a reader mailbag last week that contract length appeared to be the holdup in talks between Alonso and the Mets. Heyman frames things similarly, reporting that the Mets prefer a short-term deal.

According to Heyman, Alonso had been seeking a deal of at least six years with a guarantee in the $150-180MM range at points this offseason. It is unclear how far his camp at the Boras Corporation has moved off that ask. In any case, it doesn’t seem that any teams were willing to go those heights. That’s not especially surprising considering the way teams have devalued defensively-limited sluggers over the past decade. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson each got six-plus years and narrowly topped $160MM (albeit with deferrals in Freeman’s case), but they were each coming off superior platform seasons to Alonso.

Alonso turned 30 last month. He hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers across 695 trips to the plate. That was his lowest full-season home run total and slugging percentage. Paired with the defensive limitations as a middling defender at first base, it’s easy to understand teams’ hesitance to make a long-term commitment. At the same time, there’s clear value in a player who plays every game who hit 34 homers in what is a relative down year from a power perspective.

MLBTR predicted a five-year, $125MM contract for Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. As we noted from the beginning of the winter, though, it wasn’t difficult to foresee a situation where his market didn’t materialize as his camp envisioned. Alonso had previously declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer (albeit not while he was represented by Scott Boras). That covered his final arbitration season, in which he made $20.5MM. To come out ahead, he needed to beat $137.5MM over six free agent years. While that was evidently a goal, it looked like an uphill battle.

Alonso could end up taking the route traversed by Cody Bellinger last offseason. When his market didn’t materialize as hoped, Bellinger signed for three years and $80MM with opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. Alonso would probably expect to beat a $26.67MM average annual value if he’s going with a short-term contract. A return to the Mets still seems the best fit, especially if the team successfully waits him out into pivoting to a three-year guarantee. New York could keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season.

Teams like the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been loosely tied to Alonso in recent weeks. Los Angeles, Toronto and Boston all have in-house options at first base who could clutter the picture. San Francisco seemingly wanted to upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr., but Heyman reports that they’re reluctant to meet Alonso’s asking price.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have agreed to a $28.5MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. This does not prevent the sides from discussing a long-term deal in advance of Guerrero’s final year of club control.

Guerrero and the Jays went to a hearing last offseason. The star first baseman proved triumphant and secured a $19.9MM salary rather than the team’s filing figure of $18.05MM. They won’t go through that process this time around. Guerrero agrees to an $8.6MM raise for what’ll be his last trip through the process. That’s a hair below the $29.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He’ll nevertheless be the highest-paid player in this year’s arbitration group. Guerrero wasn’t far off joining Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto as the only players to eclipse the $30MM mark in arbitration.

The far more intriguing question is whether this will be Guerrero’s final contract with the Blue Jays. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him an extension in the $340MM range. Guerrero indicated that was well below his asking price, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has suggested is at or above $450MM. The first baseman said he was willing to continue negotiations until the start of Spring Training. He indicated he would test free agency next offseason if no deal is in place once exhibition play begins.

Guerrero finished sixth in MVP balloting last season. He raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers and 44 doubles. His numbers weren’t too far off what he’d produced when he was runner-up behind Ohtani in MVP voting in 2021. He’s on track to get to free agency at age 27, where he and Kyle Tucker would headline the class.

Twins Plan To Keep Griffin Jax In Bullpen

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In November, Twins bench coach Jayce Tingler left the door open for a rotation move for Griffin Jax. With Spring Training approaching, the team no longer seems to be considering that move.

“Our plan is to keep Griff in the bullpen for 2025,” general manager Jeremy Zoll said on the team’s Inside Twins show. “Obviously he was tremendously valuable in 2024. We feel like he’s one of the best relievers in the game and feel really good about that role and plan for the upcoming year and know Griff is excited about that as well.” Zoll left open the possibility of Jax getting a rotation opportunity in future seasons, but that doesn’t seem to be on the table for this year.

Jax has been an excellent reliever for the past three seasons. He posted an ERA in the low 3.00s with plus strikeout and walk rates between 2022-23. The righty took a major step forward last year, working to a 2.03 earned run average over 71 innings. Jax’s 34.4% strikeout percentage ranked 10th among relievers with 50+ innings. His 18.4% swinging strike rate was even more impressive. Among that same group, only Josh Hader, Dylan Lee and Mason Miller missed more bats on a per-pitch basis.

Players like Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López and Garrett Crochet have made successful bullpen to rotation moves in recent years. There’s significant upside in such a move if a pitcher can maintain similar rate dominance over a heavier workload. At the same time, taking a player out of a role in which he has been dominant comes with some element of risk. There’s the potential for injury or simply waning effectiveness as a pitcher navigates an opposing lineup two or three times in a game.

Jax, who is entering his age-30 season, is in his first of three arbitration years. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that he and the team settled on a $2.365MM deal to avoid a hearing. Pitching in a setup role in front of Jhoan Duran comes with less earning power via arbitration than he’d have if he were a starter or had a crack at the ninth inning.

Duran and Jax form a potentially elite back-end duo for skipper Rocco Baldelli. Brock Stewart, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá and Cole Sands could also pitch their way into leverage innings. Minnesota is light on left-handers and could look for a low-cost southpaw this offseason. Kody Funderburk and depth starter Brent Headrick are the only left-handed pitchers on the 40-man roster.

Minnesota has a decent stockpile of rotation depth. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober project as the top three starters. Chris Paddack is lined up as the #4 arm, while Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews could compete for the final rotation spot. López and Paddack have each come up in trade rumors because the Minnesota front office is seemingly working without any kind of payroll flexibility. They’d require a massive haul to move López, their staff ace. Trading Paddack to offload his $7.5MM salary and create space for an offensive acquisition may be more likely.

On the position player side, Zoll confirmed that the Twins will give Royce Lewis reps at both second and third base in Spring Training. The former first overall pick has only started one major league game at the keystone. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported early in the offseason that the Twins were contemplating a full-time move to second base for the upcoming season. Zoll didn’t firmly commit to an infield alignment and spoke generally about the value of the defensive flexibility that Lewis, Willi Castro and Brooks Lee bring to the table.

What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?

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The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.

If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.

As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.

Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.

If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.

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Red Sox, Garrett Crochet Have Had Preliminary Extension Talks

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The Red Sox made one of the biggest trade acquisitions of the winter, landing Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. Boston apparently has interest in keeping their newly-acquired southpaw for the longer term.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox and Crochet’s camp at CAA have had at least preliminary discussions about a long-term deal. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures on salaries for the 2025 season. That doesn’t preclude the sides from continuing to negotiate, but it stands to reason they’ll attempt to hammer out a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing for this year.

Crochet is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. His early-career injuries and usage out of the White Sox’s bullpen limited his arbitration earnings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the southpaw for a $2.9MM salary. He’s controllable for one additional year and is on track to reach free agency after his age-27 season.

For the next two seasons, Crochet should offer immense surplus value. He turned in top-of-the-rotation numbers on a rate basis last year. Crochet worked to a 3.58 earned run average with a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage. Chicago limited his workload within starts down the stretch. He finished the season with 146 innings despite taking all 32 turns through the rotation. Boston presumably won’t have any qualms about fully unleashing Crochet in his second season as a starter.

Crochet’s contract status was a key issue heading into last summer’s deadline. The southpaw seemed an obvious candidate to move as the ace of a team that was headed to the worst season in modern history. Chicago held onto him instead, in large part because his camp indicated he wanted an extension to pitch into October. To be clear, there’s no indication that Crochet would take that stance again now that he has a full season under his belt. At the time, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that the asking price would’ve been above nine figures. Passan noted that Crochet’s camp could compare him to Tyler Glasnow, who signed for four years and $110MM in new money on his extension with the Dodgers.

It’s not a perfect comparison. Glasnow was one year from free agency and had banked significantly greater earnings. Crochet is an extra season away. However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. He finished the year healthy and is a few months closer to free agency. Even last year’s capped innings tally is above Glasnow’s career high of 134 frames in an MLB season.

Jacob deGrom holds the record for the largest extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time. deGrom secured $120.5MM from the Mets covering his age 32-35 seasons. That was an anomaly, as deGrom was a late bloomer but was coming off a Cy Young season. Crochet would certainly look to top more recent precedents like Pablo López’s $73.5MM deal with the Twins and the $71.5575MM in new money which Mitch Keller got from Pittsburgh last spring. A four- or five-year term would seem the most likely midpoint if the sides can reach an agreement. That’d allow the Sox to buy out two or three free agent seasons while Crochet would still have an opportunity to cash in as a free agent at 30 or 31.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays have been surprisingly quiet in free agency thus far. Toronto has been tied to essentially every player of note, but their only signing was a two-year deal for middle reliever Yimi García. The Jays have pulled off one major trade acquisition, taking on the final five years and nearly $100MM on the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Based on the lack of free agent activity, the Jays seem to be one of the likeliest teams to land one of the few remaining stars on the open market. However, a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet casts some doubt on that possibility. Davidi writes that the Jays “are believed to be on the periphery” of the markets for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. Toronto has reportedly made an offer to Anthony Santander, yet Davidi indicates that the Jays do not look like the current favorite to land the former Orioles slugger.

Bregman, Alonso and Santander are the remaining unsigned star-caliber hitters. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are viable regulars but clearly below the preceding trio in terms of offensive impact and earning potential. Giménez stabilizes second base but isn’t a huge threat at the plate. If the Jays come up empty on each of Bregman, Santander and Alonso, they’d be left with trade possibilities to spark a middling offense. Davidi writes that Toronto is actively exploring the trade market but does not identify any specific targets for the team.

[Related: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?]

The Jays were linked to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried before they inked significant deals earlier in the winter. They lost the bidding to the Mets on Soto. Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks, at least partially because of geographic ties to Arizona. Davidi writes that the Jays were simply not comfortable with the eventual eight-year, $218MM deal that Fried secured from the Yankees. He indicates that Toronto never made an offer once they realized that the bidding was well beyond where they were willing to go.

Toronto narrowly dipped below the luxury tax threshold late last season. They have around $228MM in luxury tax commitments for this year, according to RosterResource. That puts them $13MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Any kind of free agent splash would push them into tax territory. Davidi indicates that while the Jays aren’t opposed to going into CBT range, they could decide to keep their tax number below $241MM if they don’t land any marquee targets.

An uncertain direction for the organization has hung over the offseason. Toronto has resisted a rebuild, but they’ve only made a few additions to a team that went 74-88. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are one season from free agency. There has never been much of an indication that they’ll extend Bichette. They’ve made an effort to keep Guerrero but seem far apart with the star first baseman.

Guerrero said last month that the team had offered him around $340MM. The four-time All-Star said that wasn’t close to his asking price and indicated that he’d end extension talks if there’s no deal in place by the beginning of Spring Training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported this week that Guerrero was looking for a deal of at least $450MM. Needless to say, that’s a big gap to bridge. That’d be particularly true if Guerrero holds firm to the Spring Training cutoff, though it’s not uncommon for players to continue negotiations past self-imposed deadlines if they feel progress is being made.

Davidi writes that the $340MM offer which the Jays made is believed to have predated Soto’s eye-popping $765MM contract. That may simply be an outlier, but it’s natural that Guerrero — arguably the top free agent in next year’s class — would aim high after Soto shattered all contractual precedents. Guerrero is set for what’ll be the highest salary for any arbitration-eligible player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at $29.6MM. Teams and players will exchange filing figures tomorrow afternoon. That could spur the Jays and Guerrero to work on a one-year settlement to avoid going to a hearing. That would not prevent them from continuing discussions on a long-term deal at a later date.

Astros, Angels Have Shown Interest In Alex Verdugo

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The Mets, Astros, Blue Jays and Angels are among the teams that have checked in on free agent outfielder Alex Verdugo this offseason, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported earlier this week that the Pirates were also interested in the lefty-hitting outfielder.

Verdugo is looking to bounce back after a disappointing year in the Bronx. He hit just .233/.291/.356 over 621 plate appearances as a Yankee. Most of the positives came in the season’s first few weeks. Verdugo hit .267/.358/.446 through the end of April. He turned in a .225/.275/.336 slash in more than 500 trips to the plate the rest of the way. He continued to struggle in the postseason, hitting .208/.303/.313 with one homer in 14 games.

It certainly wasn’t an ideal time for the worst year of Verdugo’s career. He’d been a capable regular for a few seasons in Boston before that. Verdugo had a .281/.338/.424 slash over parts of four seasons as a member of the Red Sox. While he never developed into the All-Star caliber player some prospect evaluators expected, he was a solid regular.

Verdugo turns 29 in May. He’s likely available on a one-year pillow contract. He’ll presumably look for a deal that’s not far off the $10MM which Max Kepler received from the Phillies last month. That makes him an option for a low-payroll team like the Pirates. He could fit for any club looking for left-handed outfield help.

That’s a specific need for the Astros. General manager Dana Brown has acknowledged they’d like a lefty-hitting outfielder following the Kyle Tucker trade. Houston doesn’t have an obvious answer in left field, while they’re relying on Chas McCormick to bounce back in right field. Verdugo is one of the most straightforward targets. The Astros project a few million dollars above the luxury tax threshold. It’d be difficult to get back under the tax line unless they trade Ryan Pressly and limit their spending for the remainder of the offseason.

The Angels have Taylor Ward as the expected starter in left field. His name has been floated in trade speculation, albeit without indications that the Halos are actively shopping him. Even if they keep Ward, they’d benefit from an upgrade over the Jo Adell/Mickey Moniak pairing in the opposite corner.

Toronto is very likely to add an everyday outfielder in the coming weeks. They’ll probably take a bigger swing than Verdugo. The Jays have been one of the top suitors for Anthony Santander, to whom they’ve reportedly made an offer. The Mets may be the toughest fit. It stands to reason Verdugo will prioritize a team that can afford him everyday playing time. New York has Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield corners, while Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri are center field options. Starling Marte remains on hand as a depth outfielder.

Angels, Brock Burke Avoid Arbitration

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The Angels avoided arbitration with lefty reliever Brock Burke on a $1.15MM deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Burke had been projected at $1.2MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Los Angeles grabbed the 28-year-old southpaw off waivers from Texas in August. Burke pitched well down the stretch, working to a 3.54 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents across 20 1/3 innings. It was a dramatic turnaround. Burke had allowed more than a run per inning over 13 appearances with the Rangers earlier in the year.

The terrible early-season production left Burke with a middling 5.82 earned run average on the year. He showed enough in his six weeks with the Angels to get another opportunity. Burke is arguably the top lefty in a bullpen that should also include José Quijada and potentially Rule 5 pick Garrett McDaniels. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next offseason.

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