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Stark On Blue Jays, Victorino, Braves

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark asked five GMs how many teams have a shot at winning the World Series and each executive said 13-16 clubs could win it all. The Mets, Astros, Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Orioles, White Sox, Twins, Mariners and Athletics didn’t receive any nominations. Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors…

  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Stark he would take a look at a bat if one were to fall into the team’s lap. That is to say, he’d welcome players willing to accept minor league deals and hit their way onto the 25-man roster. “In terms of adding a free agent on a guaranteed contract, we won't be doing that," Anthopoulos said.
  • Stark had heard a rumor that the Blue Jays may have interest in right-handed bats such as Magglio Ordonez or Vladimir Guerrero.
  • Shane Victorino, who is on track to hit free agency after the 2012 season, told Stark he’d like to stay in Philadelphia, even if that means signing an extension that delays his arrival on the free agent market. Click here for the latest on extension talks around MLB.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told Stark he isn’t worried about locking Brian McCann up just yet, since he's under team control through 2013. “I think it's probably premature for those discussions,” Wren said. “But we love him. And we know he's a big part of our club.”

AL East Notes: Varitek, Ramirez, Hughes

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The AL East included four of the junior circuit's eight 80-win teams a year ago, and you could make the argument that the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays are just as strong entering the 2012 campaign. The latest links from the division…

  • As Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains, the Red Sox didn't realize they had obtained two future All-Stars when they sent reliever Heathcliff Slocumb to Seattle for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe in 1997. Speier passes along quotes from Dan Duquette, scout Gary Rajsich and Lowe in this look back at the franchise-altering deal. Rajsich considered Lowe a future above-average setup man at the time.  Even then, the scout thought Varitek could be a frontline starting catcher. 
  • Duquette explained to Speier that Manny Ramirez wasn't a fit for the Orioles this winter. "I thought since I was so generous with Manny last time around, he should have paid me this time around. He didn’t quite see it that way," Duquette quipped, making reference to the slugger's eight-year, $160MM contract with the Red Sox.
  • Duquette also discussed the Varitek-Lowe deal in detail.
  • The Yankees say there's a competition between Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia for the final spot in their rotation, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the competition is essentially rigged. Hughes will win if the competition is close, and Garcia will head to the bullpen unless a starter gets injured.

Examining Salvador Perez’s Extension

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The sixth-youngest player to appear in an MLB game in 2011 signed a multiyear deal yesterday. 21-year-old Salvador Perez is now the youngest player in the sport with a long-term contract (not counting amateur signing bonuses). The Royals made a historic investment by guaranteeing $7MM to someone with just a handful of games in the Major leagues. But if Perez turns into an MLB regular behind the plate, there’s an excellent chance this deal will save the club money long-term.

Let’s set aside the year-to-year breakdown of the five-year deal and determine how the sides are valuing Perez’s first two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He’ll earn $7MM for his first five MLB seasons — essentially the league minimum for three years plus a total of $5.5MM for two arb years. 

How much do catchers have to produce to earn $5.5MM for their first two seasons of arbitration eligibility? To give you an idea, John Buck, Carlos Ruiz, Rod Barajas, Mike Napoli and Yadier Molina earned $4.5-6MM for that chunk of their careers. If Perez produces like those catchers, adding value on offense while playing capable defense on a regular basis, he and the Royals will basically have broken even through five years.

If Perez breaks out and produces like Joe Mauer, Brian McCann or Geovany Soto, the Royals will save money, even for the guaranteed portion of the deal. If he struggles to produce or stay healthy, the deal will cost the Royals more through 2016 than going year to year would have.

The contract includes three team options which were presumably essential for the Royals. They can retain him for $3.75MM in 2017 and lock up two free agent years for a total of $11MM in 2018-19. In other words, the Royals will have the chance to lock Perez’s prime age 27-29 seasons up at a well-below-market rate.

He obtained significant security just 39 games into his MLB career, and there's no guarantee he'll establish himself as the long-term solution behind the plate, but $7MM isn’t the kind of commitment that sets a franchise back significantly. Like Perez himself, this deal offers a whole lot of upside.

Extension Updates: Garza, Kennedy, Gordon, Hamilton

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The Cardinals and Yadier Molina are closing in on a five-year deal in the $70-75MM range. Here are more updates on extension talks around the league…

Mets Unlikely To Sign Ivan Rodriguez

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6:47pm: ESPN New York's Adam Rubin hears that it is "very unlikely" the Mets will add Rodriguez because they think Rob Johnson or Mike Nickeas will hit enough as Josh Thole's backup (all Twitter links). A second source said definitively: "We are not bringing Ivan here."

5:48pm: The Mets haven’t ruled out signing free agent catcher Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. However, they want to be sure Johan Santana is healthy before spending the $2MM or so remaining in their budget. If the left-hander gets injured, the Mets would allocate their remaining funds toward a starting pitcher. 

A Mets official spoke with Rodriguez as recently as ten days ago, telling the veteran backstop to “stay in shape” in case anything happens. The 21-year veteran has fielded a few inquiries this offseason, including one from the Diamondbacks, but he says it’s been a tough market for veteran players such as himself. Rodriguez, 40, posted a .218/.281/.323 line in 137 plate appearances last year, preventing 13 of the 25 stolen base attempts against him.

Latest On Russell Martin

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The Yankees and Russell Martin have agreed to table extension talks until the season ends, agent Matt Colleran confirmed to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. By that point, Martin will be on the brink of free agency and the market for catchers will likely be better-established. 

Yadier Molina and the Cardinals are nearing a five-year contract in the $70-75MM range, and the near-deal “gives you something to point to now,” Colleran said. When the Yankees discussed a possible extension with Martin earlier in the offseason, they reportedly offered a three-year deal in the $20MM range. Though Martin figures to sign for less than $14-15MM per season, he will benefit from Molina’s deal (as will Mike Napoli and Miguel Montero). 

Martin would like to sign long-term with the Yankees, who were impressed with his performance in 2011. The Yankees are “obsessed” with lowering their payroll below $189MM by 2014 for luxury tax purposes, Sherman writes. He suggests Martin could sign for $40MM over four years next offseason.

Service Time Considerations For Top Prospects

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Timing the debuts of top prospects is essential for MLB teams. No club wants to expose a player to top competition before he's ready, but keeping a player in the minors when he could be contributing at the big league level is hardly appealing either. It's a balancing act.

Though a player's development generally determines his timeline to the Major Leagues, service time is undeniably a consideration. MLB teams can obtain an extra year of control from a player by delaying his debut and they can decrease his chances of qualifying for an additional year of arbitration with enough patience.

Heavily-hyped prospects often have carefully-timed debuts, and Baseball America's list of the game's top 100 prospects features those currently generating the most buzz. Of the 100 players on the list, 31 project to arrive in the Major Leagues in 2012. The chart below presents two key dates for each prospect who might make an impact this coming season.

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Quick Hits: Cabrera, Marlins, Dodgers

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The deadline for NHL teams to make trades in preparation for their playoff runs passed this afternoon. Baseball's deadline is five long months away, but we've got these links to keep you going in the meantime…

Mets Notes: Wilpon, Reyes, Wright, Tejada

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The Mets lowered payroll by approximately $50MM this offseason, while division rivals such as the Marlins and Nationals moved aggressively to acquire top talent. However, Mets principal owner Fred Wilpon said his club could surprise some people in 2012. The details…

  • Wilpon said the team's finances are "OK" and that he intends to own the franchise "for a very long time," Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com writes. 
  • Wilpon made it clear that he and GM Sandy Alderson have some misgivings about offering long-term deals. “Are we a little leery of six-year, seven-year, eight-year contracts? Yes. Is Sandy leery of it? You bet. I'm big-time leery of it,” Wilpon said, after suggesting the Mets offered Jose Reyes a deal in the $100MM range.
  • One person familiar with the Mets' financial situation told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that a lot of things will have to go right for Wilpon and Saul Katz to remain in place as owners.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post explains that David Wright could become a trade candidate this July or after the season if he rebounds in 2012. Sherman draws a comparison between Wright and Ryan Zimmerman, a childhood teammate of Wright's who just signed a long-term deal with the Nationals. 
  • In a separate piece, Sherman wonders if the Mets would exercise Wright's $16MM option for 2013 if he falters this coming season. 
  • Sherman says it's unfair of Mets manager Terry Collins to criticize Ruben Tejada for not showing up to camp early.

The Oldest $100MM Players

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Kevin Brown signed the first nine-figure deal in baseball history after the 1998 season. 33 at the time, Brown had just logged 257 innings for the NL Champion Padres, striking out 257 and posting a 2.38 ERA (164 ERA+). Brown provided the Dodgers with some elite seasons before moving to New York, where he disappointed in pinstripes. 

In the decade-plus since Brown finalized his record deal, all of the 30-plus players to sign for $100MM or more have been younger than 33. Here's the complete list of $100MM players sorted by age, courtesy of MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker (the list includes free agent signings and extensions, but does not include posting fees for Japanese players):

  • Kevin Brown, 33, signed a seven-year, $105MM deal on 12/12/1998.
  • Alex Rodriguez, 32, signed a ten-year, $275MM deal on 12/13/2007.
  • Cliff Lee, 32, signed a five-year, $120MM deal on 12/13/2010.
  • Jayson Werth, 31, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/05/2010.
  • Albert Pujols, 31, signed a ten-year, $240MM deal on 12/08/2011.
  • Ken Griffey Jr., 30, signed a nine-year, $116.5MM deal on 2/11/2000.
  • Jason Giambi, 30, signed a seven-year, $120MM deal on 12/18/2001.
  • Alfonso Soriano, 30, signed an eight-year, $136MM deal on 11/20/2006.
  • Carlos Lee, 30, signed a six-year, $100MM deal on 11/24/2006.
  • Ryan Howard, 30, signed a five-year, $125MM extension on 4/26/2010.
  • Matt Holliday, 29, signed a seven-year, $120MM deal on 1/7/2010.
  • Carl Crawford, 29, signed a seven-year, $142MM deal on 12/8/2010.
  • Mike Hampton, 28, signed an eight-year, $121MM deal on 12/12/2000.
  • Manny Ramirez, 28, signed an eight-year, $160MM deal on 12/19/2000.
  • Vernon Wells, 28, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/20/2006.
  • Barry Zito, 28, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/29/2006.
  • Johan Santana, 28, signed a six-year, $137.5MM deal on 2/2/2008.
  • C.C. Sabathia, 28, signed a seven-year, $161MM deal on 12/20/2008 (revised as a 31-year-old on 10/31/2011). 
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 28, signed a seven-year, $154MM deal on 4/15/2011.
  • Jose Reyes, 28, signed a six-year, $106MM deal on 12/04/2011.
  • Mark Teixeira, 28, signed an eight-year, $180MM deal on 1/6/2009.
  • Todd Helton, 27, signed a nine-year, $141.5MM deal on 3/1/2001.
  • Carlos Beltran, 27, signed a seven-year, $119MM deal on 1/13/2005.
  • Ryan Braun, 27, signed a five-year, $105MM deal on 4/21/2011.
  • Matt Kemp, 27, signed an eight-year, $160MM deal on 11/14/2011.
  • Prince Fielder, 27, signed a nine-year, $214MM deal on 1/24/2012.
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 27, signed a six-year, $100MM deal on 2/26/2012.
  • Derek Jeter, 26, signed a ten-year, $189MM deal on 2/1/2001.
  • Joe Mauer, 26, signed an eight-year, $184MM deal on 3/21/2010.
  • Troy Tulowitzki, 26, signed a six-year, $119MM deal on 11/30/2010.
  • Alex Rodriguez, 25, signed a ten-year, $252MM deal on 12/1/2000.
  • Albert Pujols, 24, signed a seven-year, $100MM deal on 2/19/2004.
  • Miguel Cabrera, 24, signed an eight-year, $152.3MM deal on 3/24/2008.

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