2013 Arbitration Eligibles Series
MLBTR’s series profiling each team’s group of arbitration eligible players is now complete. Here are links to the team-specific posts detailing arbitration cases around MLB.
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. Here’s a link to every player’s projected salary and you can also click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with the projections. Now for the team by team previews…
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Mets Sign Brian Bixler
The Mets announced that they signed utility player Brian Bixler to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training (Twitter link). Octagon represents Bixler, who spent the 2012 season with the Astros.
Bixler appeared in 36 games with Houston, playing second base, third base, shortstop and both corner outfield positions. The 30-year-old posted a .193/.253/.330 batting line in 96 plate appearances. Bixler, who also has MLB experience with the Nationals and Pirates, has a .279/.356/.401 batting line in six seasons at the Triple-A level.
Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Scott Atchison ($800K)
- Second time: Andrew Bailey ($3.9MM), Alfredo Aceves ($2.6MM), Daniel Bard ($1.6MM), Andrew Miller ($1.4MM), Franklin Morales ($1.4MM)
- Third time: Jacoby Ellsbury ($8.1MM), Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($3.9MM), Craig Breslow ($2.4MM), Ryan Sweeney ($1.8MM), Rich Hill ($1.1MM)
Jacoby Ellsbury and many of Boston's relievers will head to arbitration this coming offseason. The Red Sox have a large class of players that includes a number of non-tender candidates.
Relievers Atchison, Hill and Aceves could all be non-tendered. Hill and Atchison dealt with elbow injuries this past season. The health of Atchison's pitching elbow remains in question, and Hill might not be viewed as a $1MM player after spending so much of the 2012 season on the disabled list. Aceves projects to earn $2.6MM thanks to his lofty saves total, but he could also be non-tendered.
Sweeney made three trips to the disabled list last season and didn't hit particularly well when healthy. Depending on what the Red Sox do to address their outfield this month, he could also lose his roster spot.
The remainder of the team's arbitration class includes four relievers in line for modest raises or no raises at all. Bard spent much of the 2012 season in the minor leagues, so his projected salary sits at $1.6MM. Bailey also missed most of the season, which means he projects to earn $3.9MM again. Meanwhile, Breslow should jump from $1.8MM to $2.4MM and Miller should obtain a modest raise to $1.4MM or so.
Ellsbury, Boston's best-paid arbitration eligible player and one of the top earning arb eligible players in MLB, projects to obtain a token raise to $8.1MM. His arbitration case won't be nearly as interesting as it was a year ago, when he obtained a substantial raise. The question remains: will the Red Sox pursue an extension with Ellsbury, settle for a one-year deal, or trade him?
Finally, Saltalamacchia and Morales will see their salaries jump following productive seasons at the MLB level. It's possible another team will be responsible for Saltalamacchia's case, as he appears to be a trade candidate.
If the Red Sox tender contracts to everyone but Atchison, Hill, Aceves and Sweeney, they’ll have committed approximately $22.7MM to seven players for 2013.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
NL East Notes: Upton, Mets, Marlins
The Marlins made headlines this week, sending Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle to Toronto in a blockbuster trade that clears tens of millions in future payroll obligations for Miami. Here’s the latest from the NL East…
- The Phillies met with free agent outfielder B.J. Upton earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter link). Upton’s right-handed bat would look good in Philadelphia’s lineup, but he’s also a top target of one of the Phillies’ main rivals. The Braves met with Upton in Atlanta yesterday.
- Mets ownership should sell the team if they can't figure out a way to re-sign R.A. Dickey, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. The Mets play in the country's biggest market and should be able to take risks on top players such as Dickey, Olney argues. As readers of MLBTR's chats already know, I agree with Olney: the Mets should be able to spend to retain star players like Dickey and David Wright.
- Commissioner Bud Selig told Ken Davidoff of the New York Post he's confident in the direction the Mets are taking. "I know they’re very comfortable where they are, and they’re very optimistic,” Selig said. However, there's no guarantee Jeffrey Loria of the Marlins will get as much backing from the commissioner as the Mets have obtained.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will look for solutions at a number of positions this offseason, and they could trade pitching depth.
Guaranteed Contracts
- John Danks, SP: $57MM through 2016
- Adam Dunn, DH: $30MM through 2014
- Jake Peavy, SP: $29MM through 2014
- Alexei Ramirez, SS: $27.5MM through 2015
- Alex Rios, OF: $26MM through 2014
- Paul Konerko, 1B: $13.5MM through 2013
- Gavin Floyd, SP: $9.5MM through 2013
- Matt Thornton, RP: $6.5MM through 2013
- Jesse Crain, RP: $4.5MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Gordon Beckham, 2B: $3.1MM (first time eligible)
- Alejandro De Aza, OF: $1.7MM (first time eligible)
- Dan Johnson, 1B: $1.2MM (first time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Philip Humber, SP/RP: $1.1MM (first time eligible, non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
The White Sox weren't able to reach the playoffs in 2012, but they have enough above average players to project as contenders in the American League going forward. They have clear needs at third base and catcher in Rick Hahn’s first offseason as Chicago’s GM.
Longtime White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski has hit free agency, which means the White Sox need to address their catching depth. It's been reported that Pierzynski will likely sign elsewhere, and if he does leave the White Sox could pursue a free agent replacement. Russell Martin and Mike Napoli are the top backstops available, but Hahn won't necessarily be pursuing a starter. Tyler Flowers could become the team's everyday catcher, in which case Chicago could pursue a backup. The trade market could include players such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and J.P. Arencibia should Hahn wish to avoid free agency altogether.
The White Sox acquired Kevin Youkilis midseason, when his value was at a low point. He has since restored his value with 80 solid games in Chicago, hitting 15 home runs and posting a .771 OPS. Youkilis, the top free agent third baseman available this offseason, he has already drawn the interest of six teams. Even though he'll turn 34 before Opening Day, Youkilis could be a fit on next year's White Sox team. There's no clear alternative within the organization, and the trade market at third base doesn't seem strong.
It'd make sense for the White Sox to monitor extension talks between David Wright and the Mets and Chase Headley and the Padres just in case. If one of those players becomes available in a trade, it'd be an opportunity worth pursuing. Chicago's offense ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored this past season and it'd look even better with an All-Star at third base. Though the asking price would be high, the White Sox have pulled off many major trades before.
One player they acquired in a memorable trade recently re-signed with Chicago. The White Sox got their offseason started early, signing Jake Peavy to a two-year deal. Peavy would have been one of the top free agent starters available after his bounce-back season, so keeping him in place through 2014 makes sense. The White Sox didn't get a major discount, but expecting one wasn't realistic considering Peavy's 2012 numbers (3.37 ERA, 194 strikeouts, 219 innings).
Hahn has suggested the White Sox might actually have starting pitching to spare. The club exercised Gavin Floyd's option, which gives them a projected starting five of Peavy, Floyd, Chris Sale, John Danks and Jose Quintana. Non-tender candidate Philip Humber could be traded, or the club could part with a veteran such as Floyd and rely on a less experienced pitcher like Simon Castro or Nestor Molina. Floyd should have good value even though elbow injuries limited him to 168 innings this past season.
Hahn and Kenny Williams have expressed interest in bringing Brett Myers back as a free agent. Myers apparently prefers to start, so he could be a more realistic option if the White Sox complete a trade involving one of their starters. Francisco Liriano, another midseason acquisition, doesn't seem to be a fit for a relatively deep rotation that already includes three left-handers.
With the exception of Myers, the team's top relievers will return for another season. The White Sox won't need to spend on elite relievers, though, like every team, they should continue looking for pitching depth on low-risk deals. After all, that's how they added Quintana and Donnie Veal a year ago.
Chicago's class of arbitration eligible players consists entirely of first timers. Dan Johnson and Humber could be non-tendered given that they project to have salaries above $1MM. Gordon Beckham and Alejandro De Aza project as starters on next year’s team, yet they don’t seem like obvious extension candidates at this stage.
If the White Sox aren't convinced that De Aza will replicate his 2012 success, they could pursue outfield depth in free agency. There's been no indication that the White Sox have serious interest in high profile free agent outfielders so far. Perhaps Nate McLouth and Reed Johnson will be viewed as part-time players who could help the 2013 White Sox. A left-handed hitter such as McLouth could mask Dayan Viciedo's struggles against right-handers.
Obtaining help at third base and catcher won’t be easy in this market. If these needs have been addressed by Spring Training, the White Sox should again challenge the Tigers for the AL Central title.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers
The Rangers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Neftali Feliz ($3.1MM)
- Second time: Matt Harrison ($6.1MM)
- Third time: David Murphy ($5.6MM), Geovany Soto ($4.6MM)
The Rangers’ class of arbitration eligible players includes three major contributors and one player likely to be non-tendered.
Soto, the club’s lone non-tender candidate, struggled at the plate in Chicago then hit poorly after joining the Rangers. With a projected salary of $4.6MM, he’s expected to be cut loose by the end of the month. Back in August I looked at Soto’s case in detail, suggesting a non-tender was likely.
Feliz's salary is fairly difficult to project because of his recent role change and injury. The 24-year-old right-hander spent most of his career as a reliever, and MLBTR projects a $3.1MM salary based mostly on his relief work. Feliz, who underwent Tommy John surgery in August, will certainly be tendered a contract even though he’s expected to miss most of next season.
Harrison and Murphy both project to earn salaries in the $6MM range. Perhaps the Rangers will explore a possible extension with Harrison in order prolong his stay in Texas beyond 2014. Murphy could also be an extension candidate following a particularly productive season.
Assuming the Rangers tender contracts to Feliz, Harrison and Murphy, they’ll have committed roughly $14.8MM to three players in 2013.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Doug Fister ($3.8MM), Austin Jackson ($3.1MM), Alex Avila ($2.5MM), Brennan Boesch ($2.1MM)
- Second time: Max Scherzer ($7.5MM), Rick Porcello ($4.7MM), Phil Coke ($1.7MM)
- Third time: Ryan Raburn ($2.1MM)
Many of the Tigers’ top players are headed to arbitration this offseason. The team has a large, expensive class that could shrink if a pair of players are non-tendered.
Three fifths of the Tigers’ rotation heads to arbitration this offseason, and while Fister and Scherzer are extension candidates, Porcello could be traded if the Tigers sign a free agent starter. Fister trails Scherzer by one year in the arbitration process and will end up earning about as much in 2013 as Scherzer did in 2012. Despite their different styles of pitching they’re actually reasonable comps in terms of innings, starts, wins and ERA. If the Tigers extend Fister he’d figure to obtain a deal of at least four years and $30MM.
It might be more challenging to extend Scherzer. Not only is he a Scott Boras client, he’s one year closer to free agency, and impact starters are always in high demand. Jackson, another Boras client, might also appeal to the Tigers as a long-term answer in center field.
The circumstances surrounding Detroit’s final extension candidate are unique. Alex Avila’s father, Al Avila, works in the Detroit front office as the team’s assistant GM. As MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, most recent extensions for catchers with three-plus years of service end up in the $8-16MM range.
Coke rounds out the Tigers’ arbitration class along with two non-tender candidates. Both Raburn and Boesch struggled at the plate this past season after showing offensive promise earlier in their careers. They could both be non-tendered given their projected salaries in the $2MM range.
If the Tigers tender contracts to Fister, Jackson, Avila, Scherzer, Porcello and Coke, they'll be facing an estimated total of $23.3MM for six players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
2013 MLB Free Agent Tracker
To keep track of all details related to free agent signings throughout the offseason, be sure to bookmark MLBTR's 2013 MLB Free Agent Tracker. The tracker allows you to filter free agents by many criteria: team, position, signing status, years, and dollars. Plus, we recently made it possible to filter free agents according to whether they obtained, accepted and declined qualifying offers.
You can also link to your search results, which makes them easy to share. For example, if you're looking to know which unsigned outfielders declined qualifying offers, you're just a few clicks away from discovering the answer.
For the most part, our cutoff for a player's inclusion on the tracker is 50 MLB plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in 2012. We also have a basic list that shows which free agents remain available at each position.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
The Giants need to obtain an outfielder and find an answer at second base.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Matt Cain, SP: $107.5MM through 2017
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: $34MM through 2017
- Barry Zito, SP: $27MM through 2013
- Tim Lincecum, SP: $22MM through 2013
- Jeremy Affeldt, RP: $18MM through 2015
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $13.95MM through 2014
- Ryan Vogelsong, SP: $5.3MM through 2013
- Javier Lopez, RP: $4.25MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Hunter Pence, OF: $13.8MM (fourth time eligible)
- Santiago Casilla, RP: $5.4MM (third time eligible)
- Brian Wilson, RP: $8.5MM (third time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Clay Hensley, RP: $1.3MM (third time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Sergio Romo, RP: $3.6MM (second time eligible)
- Jose Mijares, RP: $1.6MM (second time eligible)
- Buster Posey, C: $5.9MM (first time eligible)
- Gregor Blanco, OF: $1.3MM (first time eligible)
- Joaquin Arias, UT: $800K (first time eligible)
Free Agents
- Aubrey Huff, Melky Cabrera, Freddy Sanchez, Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan, Ryan Theriot, Guillermo Mota, Xavier Nady, Brad Penny
Every team has offseason needs — even the defending World Champions. But the Giants will project as a contender again in 2013, assuming Brian Sabean addresses center field and second base this winter.
Sabean has stayed in contact with Marco Scutaro about a possible deal since the season ended, and it does seem as though there's a potential match here. Scutaro thrived after arriving in San Francisco and the Giants need someone to play second base. Scutaro, who turned 37 last month, has a strong case for a multiyear deal. Three years ago, after a comparable offensive season, the contact hitter obtained a multiyear deal that guaranteed him slightly more than $6MM per season. A two-year deal has the potential to work for both sides again this year.
If the Giants don't re-sign Scutaro they won't find much in free agency. One option, Jeff Keppinger, is a Scutaro-like player in that he makes lots of contact, hits for limited power and plays multiple positions. It's possible Keppinger could appeal to Sabean and his fellow Giants executives. If the Giants look to the trade market they won't necessarily find more appealing options. Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals would be one affordable trade candidate worth considering (by the way, I know I've mentioned Schumaker repeatedly as a target for teams in need of second base help, but he's a useful, affordable player who's not a major part of the Cardinals' plans — why not check in on him?).
The Giants will need at least one outfielder, since Angel Pagan has hit free agency. Sabean elected not to extend a qualifying offer to Pagan, a move that was debatable though not surprising. One year and $13.3MM for a center fielder who contributes on offense seems reasonable, especially since Pagan will generate interest on multiyear contracts. Pagan has said he'd like to return to San Francisco, and the sides have had some preliminary talks about possible contracts.
While the free agent market features few starting second basemen, there's lots of outfield depth in free agency this year. Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and B.J. Upton join Pagan in center field. The corner outfield market seems just as intriguing with Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher and Cody Ross available. The Giants could pursue some of these players, depending on their talks with Pagan and ownership's willingness to boost payroll.
Some see Hamilton as a potential fit in San Francisco. He'd add left-handed power to the middle of a lineup built around two right-handed hitters (Buster Posey and Hunter Pence) and a switch hitter (Pablo Sandoval). He'd also cost a ton of money, and though the Giants have steadily increased payroll in each of the past four seasons, they might not want to spend on Hamilton. After all, many questions surround the 31-year-old and there are a number of quality alternatives in free agency.
Pence won't be non-tendered despite some speculation about the possibility. His history of production (.285/.339/.475 career line) and age (29) outweigh his expected salary ($13.8MM) and relatively ordinary 2012 numbers. In fact, you could make the case that the Giants should offer Pence a two or three year deal worth $10MM or so per season to see if he's interested in staying in San Francisco.
Brian Wilson, however, should probably be non-tendered given his projected salary of $8.5MM — that's too much for a reliever coming off of Tommy John surgery. Clay Hensley could also be non-tendered at the end of November.
San Francisco's formidable pitching staff will be back for another year. The complete rotation will return in 2013: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito. The group started all but two of the team's regular season games in 2012, and counting on that kind of health again would be unreasonable, so it'd make sense to pursue rotation help if possible. Few free agent starters would want to sign in San Francisco, which means Sabean's search may be limited to trades and minor league free agency.
Jeremy Affeldt already agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $18MM contract that will keep him in San Francisco through 2015. The Giants are spending at the top of the market for Affeldt, who had lots of leverage after another season of strong relief pitching. The Giants now have three capable left-handers in their bullpen, so it won't be surprising if teams inquire about possible trades. Most teams in baseball let Jose Mijares go through waivers this past summer, yet he’d be a fit in many bullpens.
The Giants are expected to discuss the possibility of a long-term deal with Posey. By January, when extension talks of this nature typically start unfolding, Posey could have an MVP trophy on his resume. Whether he wins the award or not, he’s going to be expensive. Back in August, Mark Polishuk explained Posey’s case for a deal in the $85MM range, and in the three months since then his leverage has grown considerably. He's an elite player about to be paid as such. From a team perspective I wouldn’t endorse any deal that doesn’t extend the Giants’ control of Posey beyond his four years of arbitration eligibility.
The Giants’ best players will return in 2013, so, health permitting, they already have the makings of a strong team. They can remain one of the National League’s elite clubs if Sabean supplements his roster with a pair of position players this offseason.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Orioles Notes: Gomes, McClellan
The Orioles improved their win total by 24 this past season, finishing with a 93-69 record. Here's the latest on the team’s offseason plans…
- The Orioles maintain interest in Jonny Gomes, but would prefer to sign him on a one-year deal, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports (on Twitter). Gomes seeks a multiyear deal, according to Encina.
- It doesn't appear that Kyle McClellan's name has come up in the Orioles' internal discussions, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. McClellan, who was released by the Cardinals yesterday, has intrigued the Orioles in the past. However, he hasn't pitched since May because of a shoulder injury.