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Heyman’s Latest: Mets, D-Backs, Indians

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Jon Heyman takes a look at three teams that underachieved this season and how each might approach the off-season…

New York Mets

  • Heyman thinks the payroll will be about the same next season, noting that any attempt to lower the payroll would be a tough sell to the fans.
  • Needs include left fielder, first baseman, catcher, starting pitcher and overall depth.
  • Mets are looking at Matt Holliday and Jason Bay and could target Adrian Gonzalez and Bengie Molina.
  • Starting pitchers the Mets may pursue include Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Jason Marquis as well as Roy Halladay if he's available.
  • Mets may try to move Luis Castillo and replace him with Orlando Hudson.

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Heyman hears the D-Backs will try to sign Brandon Webb to a new deal at slightly less than the $8.5MM option they have for next season.
  • The D-Backs may try to re-sign Doug Davis, but that will still leave a couple of holes in the rotation.
  • Arizona may try to fill the second base job via trade. Heyman suggests that Eric Byrnes and Chris Snyder could be trade bait and feels Byrnes could be moved for Castillo.

Cleveland Indians

  • Heyman says the Indians need to replace Carl Pavano's ability to eat innings. 
  • The Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee deals saved the Indians $21MM, some of which could be used in free agency.

Other notes…

  • It looks like Andy Pettitte will reach most of the incentives in his contract, nearly doubling his base salary of $5.5MM.
  • Dan Uggla feels he will be traded this off-season and Heyman says the Marlins won't want to pay his arbitration figure.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Zambrano, Johnson, Fielder, Felix, Braves

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On this date 39 years ago, the Mets purchased the contract of Dean Chance from the Indians. At the time, the Mets were 1.5 games back in the NL East. The former Cy Young winner would make only three relief appearances down the stretch and the Mets finished six games back in third place. Chance would subsequently be traded in the off-season and play just one more season. With only two weeks remaining before the start of most team's off-season, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Goat Riders of the Apocalypse feels the reports that Carlos Zambrano is largely responsible for the Cubs' failures this season are just PR by the Cubs to make it easier to move Zambrano this off-season.
  • Fangraphs makes a case that Nick Johnson's injury history could increase the number of teams that are interested in his services this off-season.
  • Dodgers Rumors wonders if Ned Colletti will be back next season as the Dodgers' GM and whether he deserves to be.
  • MLB Notebook breaks down the possibility of Prince Fielder being traded this off-season.
  • Jorge Says No! writes about the Mariners' inability to sign Felix Hernandez to an extension.
  • DC Sports Plus looks at some free agent starting pitchers that could help the Nationals next season, with John Lackey, Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro at the top of the wishlist.
  • The Ghost of Midnight Graham suggests that teams avoid Pineiro this winter.
  • UmpBump takes a look at who might be playing first base for the Braves next season.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Did Soriano Contract Help Phillies Win World Series?

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Following the '06 season, the Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year, $136MM contract. Among the teams interested in Soriano at the time were the Phillies.

Paul Hagan of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks back at that off-season and suggests that the non-signing allowed the Phillies to build the team that ultimately won the World Series.

The rumor was that the Phillies might be willing to consider a deal in the $100 million range…While there's no way of knowing exactly how the script might have played out had Soriano chosen red pinstripes, one thing can be said with absolute certainty: The money that would have been funneled to him would not have been available to spend elsewhere…Since then, they've tied up Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels with multiyear deals. They made midseason trades that added significant contracts for Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and Kyle Lohse. They increased the payroll when they acquired Brad Lidge…They've signed free agents (Raul Ibanez, Pedro Feliz, Chan Ho Park) to plug holes. They've been able to keep virtually every potential free agent and arbitration-eligible player they've wanted to.

Hagan makes a strong case. However, it should be noted that the best offer the Phillies reportedly made to Soriano was for only $73MM.

Odds And Ends: Knapp, Crow, Mets

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A few tidbits to start the day…

  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the key prospect in the Cliff Lee deal, Jason Knapp, had surgery yesterday to remove loose bodies from his throwing shoulder. The Indians do not believe the Phillies "pulled a fast one," but do feel that the Phillies misdiagnosed Knapp's original injury (Knapp was on the DL at the time of the trade).
  • Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star is reporting that Aaron Crow's contract ($3MM guaranteed) could be worth as much as $4.5MM depending on how much time he spends in the big leagues the next three seasons. 
  • Sam Mellinger also writes in his blog, that the Royals came out the victors in the negotiations based on MLB slot recommendations and what Crow turned down last year.
  • MetsBlog take a look at the Mets off-season and how the team may approach free agency.

Royals Sign Aaron Crow

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8:54pm: Now Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star is reporting (via Twitter) that the deal is only for $3MM guaranteed including a $1.5MM signing bonus.

8:30pm: Jim Callis of Baseball America is reporting that Crow will make just under $4.5MM and that the deal will be finalized in time for Crow to attend the Royals' instructional league program beginning Saturday. Callis adds that Crow could debut in the Arizona Fall League.

7:47pm: Via a press release, the Royals have signed their first-round pick Aaron Crow to a three-year Major League contract that will begin in 2010. Crow was the 12th overall pick in this year's draft and was not subject to the August 17th signing deadline.

No further details are available at this time. However, earlier today, Buster Olney reported that the deal would be worth $3-4.5MM. Crow reportedly turned down a $3.5MM offer from the Nationals as the ninth overall selection in 2008.

Odds & Ends: Abraham, Mariners, Free Agency

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A few tasty nuggets to fill the gap…

Discussion: Crawford Or Upton?

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When the Rays traded Scott Kazmir, their projected '10 payroll dropped to about $70MM. Prior to the season, owner Stuart Sternberg indicated that next season's payroll would be similar to this year's opening day payroll of $63MM. Declining Akinori Iwamura's $4.25MM option would get the payroll in that neighborhood. However, there is still a chance the Rays could try to move Carl Crawford, who will be entering the final year of his deal, or B.J. Upton, who will be arbitration-eligible this offseason for the first time. Moving one the outfielders could open up a spot for Desmond Jennings, who hit a combined .318/.401/.487 with 52 stolen bases between double-A and triple-A.

So, if you were the Rays, which outfielder would you move and if you were the GM of another club, which player would you rather have?

Tale of the tape…

Carl Crawford

  • Will be 28 next season
  • Currently hitting .302/.357/.445 with 57 steals
  • Next year will be the final year of his contract. He will make $10-11.5MM based on escalators.
  • Ken Rosenthal thinks Rays may prefer to move Crawford with Upton's value currently low.
  • Jayson Stark wrote that the Rays may be able to keep Crawford after moving Kazmir's contract.

B.J. Upton

  • Will be 25 next season
  • Currently hitting .233/.304/.363 with 10 home runs and 37 steals.
  • Will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this off-season.
  • Buster Olney heard that the Rays will listen to offers for Upton.
  • Several teams contacted the Rays last off-season about acquiring Upton.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Papelbon, Jeter, Jurrjens, Braves, Nats

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On this date 11 years ago, the Dodgers hired Kevin Malone to be their General Manager, replacing Tommy Lasorda. Three months later, the "new sheriff in town" signed Kevin Brown to a 7-year/$105MM contract, making Brown the first $100MM player in baseball history. The deal would cover Brown's age 34-40 seasons. Malone also avoided salary arbitration with Carlos Perez that off-season, giving him a 3-year/$15.5MM deal. Perez would spend the final year of the deal in Triple-A and never signed another big league contract. As most teams start looking to the off-season, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Jorge Says No! revisits the worst contract extensions from the past off-season.
  • Fire Brand of the American League takes a look at what it would mean to the Red Sox if they traded Jonathan Papelbon.
  • River Ave. Blues takes a look at what it will take to re-sign Derek Jeter.
  • MLB Notebook can see Jason Bay signing with the Mariners this off-season, but suggests it is not a good fit.
  • Talking Chop argues that trading Jair Jurrjens this off-season would be more beneficial for the Braves than trading Javier Vazquez or Tim Hudson.
  • Capitol Ave. Club previews the Braves' free agent class.
  • DC Sports Plus projects the Nationals' roster for next season, including the addition of Aki Iwamura.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Scott Kazmir

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On this date 34 years ago, Rod Barajas was born. Barajas has played 11 seasons with four different franchises, hitting .241/.286/.411. This year, he is in the final year of a two-year deal that pays him $2.5MM this season. With less than a month remaining in the season, many others will see their contracts expire and look forward to free agency. Let's take a look at what is being written in the blogosphere…

  • The Hardball Times says Scott Kazmir may be injury-prone moving forward, but he still has the arm to be an Ace.
  • Rays Revolutionary has no problem with trades that help the Rays budget, but are upset at the timing of the Kazmir deal.
  • The Rays Party looks at what the Kazmir deal means for the Rays now and down the road.
  • Jorge Says No! is not a fan of the timing of the Kazmir trade, but says the Rays got a good package, and in the end, it is Pat Burrell's fault.
  • The Bottom Linewonders why the Red Sox did not claim Kazmir and block his move to the Angels, a potential playoff opponent.
  • UmpBump says the Kazmir deal makes sense, but maybe the Rays should have waited until the off-season.
  • The Baseball Opinion likes the Kazmir deal for the Rays noting they dumped the salary and that there is likely more wrong with his arm than we know.
  • Around the Majors loves the Kazmir deal for the Rays, noting that Kazmir no longer has a fastball to live up to his reputation.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

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