Eddie Schmid | MLB Trade Rumors

Nationals Make Offer To Strasburg

By Eddie Schmid | August 15, 2009 at 10:45am CDT

According to Thomas Boswell at the Washington Post, the Nationals have formally made their offer to no. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg, and it's been on the table for some time. As expected, the offer is "record-setting" in that it surpasses Mark Prior's $10.5MM bonus from 2001, and a source seems to indicate to Boswell that the offer is at least "twice as much" as the top bonus awarded last year, which was $6MM.

This is the first official word that the Nationals have a contract on the table, but it's all but certain negotiations will still last until the final minutes of the August 17 deadline. After examining the pattern of offers that the Nationals made to top free agent Mark Teixeira last year, Boswell projects that the current figures are somewhere between $14MM and $16MM. It's likely going to take much more to sway Strasburg and Scott Boras. Stay tuned to MLBTR as the saga continues to unfold before Monday.

Pirates DFA Jeff Salazar

By Eddie Schmid | August 15, 2009 at 10:21am CDT

According to Jen Langosch at MLB.com (via Twitter), the Pirates have designated outfielder Jeff Salazar for assignment. Salazar, 28, hasn't been able to put it together at the plate this year, managing just one hit in 26 plate appearances for the Bucs.

Odds & Ends: Yankees, Orioles, Scheppers

By Eddie Schmid | August 15, 2009 at 9:41am CDT

A buffet brunch of links–come get your fill:

Ken Davidoff at Newsday reports that the Yankees are confident first-round pick/secret agent from the future Slade Heathcott will sign, likely for a bonus around $2MM.
Jeff Zrebiec at the Baltimore Sun talked to Orioles president Andy MacPhail, who assures that manager Dave Trembley's job is safe through this season. Trembley has a club option for 2010.
Yahoo Sports' Gordon Edes believes that we will see draft picks as commodities to be traded in the near future, as it "makes too much sense."
Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker discusses the possibility that Tanner Scheppers pitches in Japan, and concludes that most international free agent signings in NPB are "low-risk, low-reward."
Lane Meyer at NoMaas talked to Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer about the draft and potential signings.

Red Sox DFA Chris Woodward

By Eddie Schmid | August 15, 2009 at 9:13am CDT

As expected, the Red Sox have designated IF Chris Woodward for assignment, says Adam Kilgore at the Boston Globe. He'll leave to make room for the newly acquired Alex Gonzalez. The 33-year-old Woodward played in five games for the Sox after being claimed from the Mariners, going without a hit in seven plate appearances.

Odds & Ends: Cubs, Strasburg, O’s

By Eddie Schmid | August 13, 2009 at 9:42pm CDT

Some more links on a slow night in Rumorville:

A reader points us to a report out of Korea that says two amateurs have been signed out of Korea. CF Kyung-min Na was signed by the Cubs for 725k and is called "the fastest player in Korean high school baseball," while IF Chan-jong Moon was signed by the Astros for 350k.
According to MASN Sports' Steve Melewski, Orioles head of scouting Joe Jordan sees recent 22nd-round signee Cameron Coffey as "top two rounds" talent and expects him to pitch next season despite recent surgery.
Count in Ryan Zimmerman as a fan of Stephen Strasburg. He hopes the Nationals sign the fireballer, says Bill Ladson at MLB.com.
Roch Kubatko at MASN Sports says that Orioles president Andy MacPhail doesn't have much interest in the recently DFA'd Bill Hall.
Kubatko also reports that the Orioles are set to determine the player to be named from the Rays in the Gregg Zaun deal this coming Monday.

High-Priced Closers

By Eddie Schmid | August 13, 2009 at 9:06pm CDT

There was a user here that stated roughly "If the closer is the highest-paid player on your team, you're not destined for great things." With that in mind, let's take a look at the highest-priced relievers in the game who were signed to specifically be closers.

Earlier in the decade, a free-agent closer earning $10MM per year looked fairly implausible, but it seems the dominance of players like Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne made teams salivate at the thought of an unhittable late-game fireman. Since then, closers have become increasingly expensive and the results have been mixed. Let's look at what the top contracts have produced for teams, whether they're the highest contracts on the team or not:

B.J. Ryan – Signed a five-year, $47MM contract in 2005. One brilliant season (2006), one good one (2008), one completely missed season (2007) and now out of a job with another year to go on his contract. The Blue Jays didn't make the playoffs.
Joe Nathan – Signed a four-year, $47MM contract in 2008. He's been fantastic, putting up sub-2 ERAs and saving 68 games while blowing nine. But the Twins are five games back and look like they'll miss the playoffs this year, as they did last.
Mariano Rivera – Signed a four-year, $40MM deal in 2001, a two-year, $21MM deal with vesting option in 2005 and a three-year, $45MM contract in 2008. Rivera has been exceptionally brilliant since he was given his big deal in '01, putting up five seasons of sub-2 ERA and 30-save seasons in all but one. Perhaps it's semi-notable that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since they first broke the bank on Rivera.
Billy Wagner – Signed a four-year, $43MM deal in late 2005. Pitched magnificently for two and a half seasons until he was forced to have elbow surgery last season. Mets made NLCS in 2006.
Francisco Rodriguez – Signed a three-year, $37MM deal w/$17.5MM option in 2008. Has been good but not great for the Mets this year, putting up a 3.35 ERA and 53/30 K/BB ratio in 51 IP. Mets aren't going to make the playoffs this year, but it can't really be traced to his performance.
Francisco Cordero – Signed a four-year, $46MM deal in 2007. Cordero was good in 2008 and has been pretty great this season, posting a 1.79 ERA and 37/19 K/BB ratio. He's saved 59 games and blown only seven since last year, but the Reds continue to scuffle.
Brian Fuentes – Signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal in 2008 with a vesting option for 2011. He's had a bumpy ride this season, but he's saved 32 games in 36 chances. Angels could be set for the playoffs.
Brad Lidge – Signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal in 2008 w/Phillies. Has been erratic this year, posting a 7.29 ERA and 44/25 K/BB ratio and saving 21 of 28 games after a nearly flawless campaign last season. Phillies look committed to forge on with him, but will it cost them late in the season? We'll see.
Kerry Wood – Signed a two-year, $20.5MM deal with vesting option for 2011 w/ Indians. Wood has been a frustrating sign, posting a 4.72 ERA and 45/19 K/BB ratio while saving 15 games and blowing five saves. Pretty big disappointment for the Indians, who were looking to contend this year and have now blown up their team.

So what can we learn from these? One prevailing trend is that the small-market teams (Blue Jays, Reds, Indians, Twins) have paid astronomical contracts to closers with few good results. While a closer may put up solid numbers here or there, the middling teams haven't seen their overall performance improve significantly, if at all, by the season's end. When a larger-market team invests, the player has usually rounded out an already robust squad–one with enough depth and cash to recover.

This conclusion has probably been made a few times, but there seems to be a correlation that shouldn't be ignored: Signing a high-priced closer long-term is likely to be an unwise move for a small-market team, as the risk of injury or sudden ineffectiveness is high. A closer isn't likely to be the piece to make a middling team a great one, and money would be well-spent on other resources.

Special thanks to Cot's Contracts.

Odds & Ends: Rays, Royals, Free Agents

By Eddie Schmid | August 13, 2009 at 6:20pm CDT

Did somebody order these links? No? Oh, well here, you can have them anyway:

ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider link) gives a rundown of the coming offseason's most attractive starting pitching options and the caveats that come with them.
The owners of the Rays have purchased a franchise, the Florida Tuskers, in the United Football League, says Joe Smith at the St. Petersburg Times. They'll play in Tropicana Field.
Sam Mellinger at the Kansas City Star says that fourth-rounder Chris Dwyer and third-rounder Wil Myers have yet to sign with the Royals, despite reports and bonus figures that indicated they had. Regardless, talks are "close."
Marc Topkin at the St. Petersburg Times says that the Rays are close to signing their third-, fourth-, fifth- and ninth-round picks. No word on the terms just yet.
According to Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times, Mariners assistant GM Jim Na is resigning.

Doug Davis Claimed By Brewers; Deal Unlikely

By Eddie Schmid | August 13, 2009 at 1:35pm CDT

1:35pm: Doug Melvin tells Haudricourt that there are no talks between the Brewers and D'Backs right now, though they did speak yesterday.

11:59am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Brewers aren't confident they can trade for Davis. Rosenthal hears that they have until 12pm CST tomorrow to strike a deal.

THURSDAY, 8:27am: Davis likes the idea of returning to Milwaukee, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. However, after talking with Brewers GM Doug Melvin, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel finds a reunion unlikely. Davis' projected Type B status is apparently driving Arizona's asking price.

At 63.4 points as of August 9th, Davis is in good shape for Type B classification. But is that potential supplemental draft pick worth more than $2.5MM in salary relief? And would the D'Backs really offer Davis arbitration, risking paying him more than $9MM in 2010? They do have the payroll room, and face question marks in the rotation next year after Dan Haren and Max Scherzer.

WEDNESDAY, 9:57pm: Nick Piecoro at the Arizona Republic also gets confirmation that the Brewers claimed Davis, and says that a deal is not likely but cannot be ruled out. He hears the claim was made because the Brewers hold real interest in Davis, not as a tactic to block other teams.

9:25pm: Heyman's sources confirm that it was the Brewers who claimed Davis. The Diamondbacks now can choose to either talk a trade, allow the Brewers to claim Davis or pull him back.

8:50pm: According to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter), Diamondbacks lefty Doug Davis has been claimed by an unknown team.

Davis has been named quite often in the recent past as a candidate to be moved. Heyman speculates that the claiming team could be the Brewers, as they've been having a "pro-active day." Tom Haudricourt at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel thinks that's a good guess, as the Brewers already made a run at Davis before the deadline. Davis made comments earlier today saying that he doubted the D'backs were planning to negotiate on an extension and called a trade to a contender a "win-win" situation for him.

Tim Dierkes also contributed to this post.

Odds & Ends: Reds, Mariners, Yankees

By Eddie Schmid | August 12, 2009 at 9:55pm CDT

A few more links to peruse this evening:

Hal McCoy at the Dayton Daily News says that the Reds won't deal Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang, but it's likely that the Reds unload Francisco Cordero to anyone who will take him. It's not clear if Cordero has been placed on waivers just yet.
Larry LaRue at the Tacoma News-Tribune reports that Mariners' top signee last year, Scott Boras client Josh Fields, has had his development stunted because of a contract holdout.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman doesn't have interest in bringing in FA Mark Mulder, says Peter Abraham at the Journal News.
The Rangers have signed their fifth-round pick Nicholas McBride, a HS righty, reports T.R. Sullivan at MLB.com.
According to Dan Barbarisi at the Providence Journal, John Smoltz refused a bullpen assignment to the Sox. This could mean he's only interested in joining another team as a starter, if at all.

Orioles Won’t Sign Second-Rounder

By Eddie Schmid | August 12, 2009 at 7:50pm CDT

According to Steve Melewski at MASN Sports, the Orioles have decided not to offer a contract to no. 54 overall pick Mychal Givens. Givens, a high school SS, had apparently increased his asking price on draft day and the Orioles selected him anyway. But now scouting director Joe Jordan decided didn't "feel good" about the figures demanded.

Jordan indicates that the money will be allocated toward players he considers second-round talent, though he does not identify whom. The O's will now have two second-round picks in next year's draft.

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