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Cora, Betts, Porcello Discuss Red Sox’ Outlook & Future

By Jeff Todd | July 23, 2019 at 8:20am CDT

As the Red Sox continue to hover just out of postseason position, but well shy of striking distance in the division, the organization’s outlook has been a topic of keen interest in Boston. Without the backstop of an August trade period, the upcoming trade deadline has taken on increased significance for the defending champs.

Skipper Alex Cora has continued to emphasize the need for urgency from the men in uniform. As MLB.com’s Ian Browne reports, Cora has now acknowledged the possibility that the club may not be in a strong buying position when it comes time to make a final call in one week’s time.

“The front office has a job to do,” says Cora. “Obviously our goals are set to win the World Series. If it doesn’t look that way and they go somewhere else and take another approach, you’ve got to respect that. At the end, we have to perform and we have to win games.”

There has been some chatter of a minor sell-off, though it seems quite difficult to imagine that taking place with the Boston club just two games out of postseason position and still laden with talent. But it remains to be seen how hard the front office will be able to push to improve, with a realistic assessment of the likelihood of a repeat crown necessarily weighing in the balance of how much young talent and/or future payroll capacity can be sacrificed to improve the present active roster.

Superstar Mookie Betts is emblematic of the frustrating Sox’ season to this point. He romped through 2018 but has been merely very good this year. As Christopher Smith of MassLive.com covers, Betts suggeests there’s nothing to do but keep grinding.

“Just like I may not be able to have that type of MVP season every year, well, how many teams have amazing seasons like that every year?” Betts queries. “So this year has new challenges that we have to go about and accept it.”

If the Sox elected to blow things up, Betts would be the club’s biggest trade chip. But that’s exceptionally unlikely. True, Betts has generally not seemed inclined to pursue an extension, which certainly weighs into the considerations from a team perspective. But it’s all but impossible to imagine a scenario where it makes sense for a thriving Sox franchise to part with such a talent when it controls him for one more season.

Plus, there are still scenarios where Betts ends up spending his entire career in Boston — even if it comes after a trip onto the open market. He emphasized in his comments how much he loves playing for the Sox.

“It’s been nothing but amazing here,” he says. “Just because you go to free agency doesn’t mean you don’t want to be somewhere. It’s just a part of the business.”

While Betts has declined persistent extension overtures, the opposite was true for righty Rick Porcello. As he approaches free agency, the thirty-year-old hurler is now mired in his worst season in the big leagues, with a 5.61 ERA through 110 2/3 innings. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, Porcello is choosing to focus on the things he can control right now rather than dwelling on what has gone wrong or what the future holds.

From a team perspective, Porcello says, “it’s not going to be the same journey every year and this is our path right now.” Rather than comparing to the club’s blessed 2018 path, he says, the club should “focus on the positives and focus on moving forward and what we can do with the remaining games we have left, that’s where all the energy should be.” Those words translate to Porcello’s personal situation as well, as the righty explains and Bradford explores in great detail. Porcello says he isn’t worried about future possibilities that aren’t even yet clear, emphasizing that he doesn’t “think about the contract stuff anymore.”

Porcello seemingly summed things up, for himself and the team: “You play enough baseball you start to realize it’s so much wasted energy thinking about if we’re going to get a player, am I going to get traded, what’s going to happen, are we still trying to win? I have one priority right now and that’s getting my [stuff] right to get guys out. That’s it.”

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Boston Red Sox Mookie Betts Rick Porcello

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Rockies Reportedly “Would Listen To Offers” For Charlie Blackmon

By Jeff Todd | July 23, 2019 at 6:22am CDT

With the Rockies’ fortunes sinking during a brutal stretch of play in the run-up to the trade deadline, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the organization “would listen to offers” for star outfielder Charlie Blackmon. It’s not clear at this point whether any such discussions have occurred.

At first glance, it seems rather unlikely that a deal will end up coming to fruition. The Rockies have positioned themselves as a win-now franchise in recent years by hammering out monster extensions with Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, inking a less-costly but still-significant deal with starter German Marquez, and drawing several free-agents (chiefly, Ian Desmond and a procession of relievers) with contracts that depreciated like new luxury cars rolling off the lot. The Colorado payroll sat at a record $145MM this season and already has hefty money on the books (before arb raises and other additions) for the next few years: $120MM+ for 2020, $82.8MM for 2021, and over $60MM for the ensuing two seasons. Dealing Blackmon would significantly harm the near-term outlook in the midst of a contention window that the team has already largely committed to.

Then again, perhaps there’s a shot here at a bit of a mulligan. The somewhat extended financial position is of obvious concern given the top-heavy state of the roster. Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl make up a nice group of position players to build around. Marquez and Jon Gray are a solid duo of young starters, with Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez looking like quality, controllable relief arms this year. But that’s less than a third of the roster. Seven Rockies players have produced at least 1.0 fWAR this year (including Oberg but not Estevez); no other man on the roster has exceeded 0.5. Even as several of the free-agent acquisitions have gone south, the club has seen a few hiccups from promising young players trying to figure out the majors. And then there was the collapse of starter Kyle Freeland.

The picture has changed quite a bit since the Rockies acted decisively to keep Blackmon from testing free agency at the end of the 2018 season, and then did the same with Arenado after a Wild Card campaign. That’s true both of the team and of the veteran outfielder, who is owed $21MM this season as well as in 2020 and 2021. The deal includes a $21MM player option for the 2022 season and a floating-value player option for the final contemplated campaign. From a starting point of $10MM, that final option can move up to $18MM depending upon plate-appearance and MVP-voting results over the other seasons of the deal.

The Rox are in a bind through no fault of Blackmon, who has been the team’s best hitter. Through 381 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .319/.365/.602 batting line with 23 home runs. That translates to a strong 132 wRC+. Blackmon has been an excellent hitter for past four seasons and obviously has maintained his ability to square up the baseball. That said, he has outperformed the expectations of Statcast based upon his batted-ball data, with a .403 wOBA but only a .347 xwOBA, though that has also been true in each of the three prior campaigns. It’s also notable that Blackmon’s never-exceptional walk rate is down to 5.5%. That matter links up to another possible concern: Blackmon has posted yawning home/road splits this year. While the numbers are less dramatic over the full course of his career, no small part of Blackmon’s overall success has come from a whopping lifetime .378 BABIP at Coors Field.

While the hitting output and outlook remain mostly positive, the cracks are beginning to show in the other areas of Blackmon’s game. He was already moved out of center field after grading terribly there last year. The UZR and DRS grading systems remain pessimistic about his work in the corners in 2019, with Statcast’s outs-above-average and outfielder jump measures also taking a dim view of Blackmon’s glovework. Likewise, Blackmon is no longer a stolen-base threat or even a positive-value performer on the basepaths by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR grade. Statcast identifies a clear drop in his foot speed and percentile rank among MLB runners. These developments may not directly implicate his eye, bat speed, and reflexes at the plate, but they’re also of note from a hitting perspective because Blackmon is so heavily dependent upon reaching base via contact to maintain his on-base numbers.

So, should we add Blackmon to the top of the list of available trade deadline targets? There’s some reason to think the Rockies could make him available, though it’d be awfully tough to deal such a popular player and it would hardly solve the team’s payroll predicament in one fell swoop. Presumably, the club would want any acquiring team to take on most or all of the remaining money owed to Blackmon while also coughing up young talent. There’d surely be interest, but given the above-noted concerns, it’s also easy to imagine some trepidation from the market. Morosi speculatively considers the Rangers, Reds, and Cardinals as organizations that might conceivably target Blackmon, but it’s not hard to come up with reasons to believe each of those organizations would be hesitant to meet the Rockies’ presumptive asking price. Ditto other potential trade matches. The veteran outfielder also has 15-team no-trade protection, which could complicate matters. All things considered, it’s interesting to contemplate the possibilities but it still feels rather unlikely that Blackmon will end up on the move.

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Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon

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Rich Hill On Outlook, Future Plans

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 8:14pm CDT

Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill is working his way back to the mound this year, with plans for more, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. The veteran hurler is presently on the 60-day injured list with a flexor strain but says he has now begun a throwing program.

Hill is still a month away from possible activation, but it’s encouraging to hear that he’s already beginning to move in a positive direction. There was initial concern that he had suffered a catastrophic injury, but Hill says those fears subsided rather quickly. Now, he’s “anxious to get started again.” It certainly seems as if the near-term outlook is rather optimistic.

Once he does get back going, Hill has no plans to stop. “I want to play as long as I can,” he says, though he acknowledges there’s always some uncertainty when it comes to health.

Hill’s contract expires after the present season. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer, which could well be a possibility given how well he has pitched when available. Hill has made between twenty and twenty-five starts annually since 2016 and won’t even reach that level this year, but he’s sporting a 2.93 ERA since the start of his stunning rebirth in late 2015.

So, how might the future look? “It could be one of those things where I go year to year,” says Hill, though he adds that he’s “not 100 percent sure” what form his next contract will take.

As for location, there are also some notable hints. “[H]opefully I can stay in L.A.,” says Hill, who says he relishes the competitive success the Dodgers have had in his time there. The club has made good use of Hill, with an approach that embraces his occasional absences and even views them as a means of keeping him at top form when he is active.

Of course, there’s also a strong pull to Boston. Not only did he launch his comeback with the Red Sox, but Hill’s family still resides there. He cited a desire to keep his son around the professional game as part of his plan for continuing to pitch, while also bemoaning the lack of time with his family once school starts. Boston “has always been home,” says Hill, who otherwise cites “a chance to compete” as the “biggest” draw in his future.

It certainly seems that his current and former organizations hold plenty of allure to the 39-year-old Hill, who may well be set up for a remarkable (and lucrative) run past forty years of age. “I feel like I have a lot of good pitching left in me,” he says.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Rich Hill

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Rangers Place Shawn Kelley On IL, Select Rafael Montero, Designate Carlos Tocci

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 5:18pm CDT

The Rangers announced an interesting trio of roster moves today. Veteran hurler Shawn Kelley has been moved to the 10-day injured list with what is described as biceps soreness.

The organization has selected the contract of righty Rafael Montero to fill the open active roster spot. To clear 40-man space, outfielder and former Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci was designated for assignment.

Kelley, who has served as the Rangers’ closer, had increasingly seemed to be a trade candidate. The club adds that an “MRI showed no acute injury,” which seemingly suggests that Kelley isn’t facing a significant malady. But he’ll be sidelined through to the trade deadline, which will make it quite a bit more difficult for the Texas org to obtain a return sufficient to prompt a deal.

While he has had his ups and downs in recent years, Kelley has mostly been effective since the start of the 2018 campaign. He’s through 33 innings of 3.00 ERA ball this year, with 8.7 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. With a $2.5MM salary this year and $2.5MM club option for 2020, Kelley’s contract is a fairly appealing one. The option also gives the Rangers an alternative to a trade.

The other moves are intriguing as well. Montero, 28, was once a prized hurler in the Mets organization but his fortunes were sinking even before he missed the ’18 season for Tommy John surgery. It remains to be seen whether he can resurrect his career, but the Rangers will be glad to have a look after watching Montero rack up a shiny 31:2 K/BB ratio in 18 1/3 minor-league innings.

As for Tocci, the 23-year-old was bumped from the 40-man after the organization put in a big effort to acquire him. The club carried him for all of the 2018 season to secure his rights through the Rule 5 draft, with Tocci struggling badly in limited playing time. Long considered a project with the bat, he’s slashing .246/.317/.312 in 360 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Carlos Tocci Rafael Montero Shawn Kelley

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Padres Designate Jose Pirela, Reinstate & Option Travis Jankowski

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 4:34pm CDT

The Padres have designated utilityman Jose Pirela for assignment, per a club announcement. His 40-man spot was needed for outfielder Travis Jankowski, who was activated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A.

Pirela, 29, has not seen much MLB action this season despite the fact that he has posted loud offensive numbers. Through 242 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .353/.401/.674 with 18 long balls.

It seems the Friars had already seen enough to know how they felt about Pirela. He had received a long look in 2018 after a strong 2017 showing, but proved unable to capitalize on the opportunity. Through nearly a thousand total trips to the plate at the game’s highest level, Pirela is a .258/.307/.390 hitter (88 wRC+).

The story isn’t altogether different for Jankowski, who has run through 953 plate appearances in the majors with marginal results (.242/.319/.321; 79 wRC+). He is a year-and-a-half younger than Pirela and arguably offers a slightly higher floor with highly-graded glovework and baserunning. Jankowski hasn’t been overly impressive with the bat during his rehab assignment — his plate discipline hasn’t quite made up for a total power outage (.254/.371/.271) — but will get another chance to show he deserves a big-league job in San Diego.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Jose Pirela Travis Jankowski

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Nationals Place Ryan Zimmerman On 10-Day IL, Select Michael Blazek

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 4:19pm CDT

The Nationals have placed first baseman Ryan Zimmerman on the 10-day injured list. He’s dealing with an ongoing bout of plantar fasciitis.

As anticipated, the D.C. organization has also selected the contract of righty Michael Blazek. To create a 40-man opening, reliever Justin Miller was shifted to the 60-day injured list.

In other roster tweaks, the Nats have recalled outfielder Andrew Stevenson. To open the additional active roster spot, right-hander Kyle McGowin was optioned down.

Zimmerman already missed a lengthy stretch owing to the nagging foot issue. The 34-year-old has endured a rough campaign when he has been available, though he had been on a nice run this month. It seems Zimmerman will look to let the flare-up die down and return to action once he’s able to tolerate the pain, as Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets. It stands to reason that Matt Adams will pick up the bulk of the playing time while Zimmerman is down, with Howie Kendrick likely stepping in against lefties.

As for Blazek, he’s now formally back in the bigs for the first time since 2017. He has a solid 28:10 K/BB ratio in 26 Triple-A innings, but has also coughed up 16 earned runs in that span. With the Nats continuing to search far and wide for passable relief pitching, they’ll give the 30-year-old a shot to get his career back on track. Blazek owns a 4.39 ERA through 123 career MLB innings.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Andrew Stevenson Justin Miller Kyle McGowin Michael Blazek Ryan Zimmerman

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Twins Select Cody Stashak, Place C.J. Cron On IL

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 3:31pm CDT

The Twins have selected the contract of righty Cody Stashak and recalled fellow reliever Lewis Thorpe, per a club announcement. They’ll take the active roster places of first baseman C.J. Cron, who’s headed to the injured list with a thumb malady, and righty Zack Littell, who was optioned down.

Stashak, 25, earned his way to the big leagues with a strikeout laden showing in the upper minors to open the year. He has been particularly impressive since moving up to Triple-A, turning in 22 1/3 frames of 1.61 ERA ball with a sterling 31:4 K/BB ratio. While he has functioned primarily as a reliever in recent seasons, Stashak did get two starts at Rochester and has been tasked with multi-inning work at times.

It’s not promising to see Cron headed back to the IL so soon after his reinstatement. It seems his thumb troubles have reared up again, meaning the team will go without a hitter who has turned in 350 plate appearances of ..263/.320/.494 work at the plate this season. The Twins will go with a three-man bench for at least a stretch.

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Minnesota Twins C.J. Cron Cody Stashak Lewis Thorpe Zack Littell

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Rays Have Looked Into Availability Of Hunter Pence

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 3:13pm CDT

The Rays have checked in with the Rangers about the availability of outfielder/DH Hunter Pence, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The possibility of a match was first noted by MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette.

It’s not known how serious the talks are, but it does seem reasonable at this point to presume that Pence can be had. The Rangers had dabbled with pursuit of a postseason spot, but a slide has left the club staring up at an all-but-insurmountable 6.5-game gap from the second Wild Card spot. Given the circumstances, the Texas club is likely to dangle its pending free agents — if not a few other assets.

On the Rays’ side, the organization has seen its own postseason position erode steadily over the course of the season. It’s hard to imagine them catching the division-leading Yankees. It’ll take a big effort even to win a Wild Card spot. The two positions are held presently by the Indians and Athletics, with the Rays one game back and the Red Sox also posing a serious threat.

While the Tampa Bay team is obviously going to attempt to improve, it doesn’t have sufficient incentive to truly go for broke. That makes it hard to imagine the Rays giving up too much future value for rental assets. In the case of Pence, however, the acquisition cost will likely be rather manageable.

Pence has had a heck of a bounceback season at 36 years of age. He’s through 232 plate appearances of .290/.349/.581 hitting with 15 home runs. Statcast credits the veteran with a strong 43.1% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velo, along with a 10.5 degree launch angle that’s about double his numbers in recent seasons. Pence has outperformed his contact quality, but not by a huge amount (.387 wOBA vs. .365 xwOBA).

That said, it’s still worth wondering whether Pence will be able to sustain this kind of outburst. And he hasn’t been trusted with many innings in the outfield after several seasons of somewhat poorly reviewed glovework. His contract is quite affordable — $2MM with $1.25MM in incentives — but there probably isn’t an abundance of demand. Unless National League teams see Pence as an option to slide back out to the field rather than functioning mostly as a DH, as he has in Texas, the primary pursuers would seem to come from the American League ranks. Yet most of the AL contenders have accounted for their bat-only plate appearances.

The fit with the Rays isn’t flawless, either, but it’s possible to imagine how Pence would fit on the roster. In terms of existing DH possibilities, the club has a rotating cast of possibilities on the right side but no clear bat-only piece. In terms of left-handed hitters, Ji-Man Choi has been increasingly crowded out by Nate Lowe at first base. Choi is a strong option when facing right-handed pitching but has struggled mightily in limited opportunities against southpaws. Pence, who has long maintained limited platoon splits and thrived both with and without the platoon advantage this year, could share time with Choi or replace him entirely as a primary DH.

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Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Hunter Pence

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Latest On Max Scherzer

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2019 at 12:28am CDT

TODAY:  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that he is “reasonably confident” Scherzer will come off the injured list this week.  As Dougherty notes, this projection carries some extra weight coming from Rizzo, who “is usually resistant to putting even loose timelines on injuries.”

FRIDAY: The Nats’ mid-season revival has been driven by exceptional starting pitching — particularly from the ever-dependable Max Scherzer. His unholy tear through the rest of the league was halted only by an unfortunate back issue that has cropped up, forcing a recent injured-list placement.

Scherzer provided an update today to reporters including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). What had been believed to be a mid-back strain is in fact an inflamed bursa sac in his back/shoulder area (formally, “scapulothoracic bursitis”). He’s throwing off flat ground while waiting for a cortisone shot to take effect.

It’s clear at this point that Scherzer will not pitch before the weekend is out. But he suggests that he ought to be ready to go in relatively short order thereafter. It’ll all depend upon the efficacy and speed of the treatment. Much as the Nats would love to have him back on the bump right away, they’ll need to be cautious of avoiding a larger problem.

It’s more or less impossible to overstate just how good Scherzer has been of late. Since the start of June, he has made seven starts, over which he has allowed just five earned runs on 29 hits in 52 innings. Scherzer has compiled an absurd 79:6 K/BB ratio in that span.

Even if he never threw another pitch in D.C., Scherzer’s blockbuster free agent contract would go down as a huge success. He has already thrown over one thousand innings of 2.65 ERA ball for the Nats, racking up over thirty wins above replacement in less than five full seasons. That he remains an outstanding pitcher with appealing (albeit not inexpensive) remaining guaranteed seasons is testimony to how unusually well that deal has turned out for the team.

As talented and driven as Scherzer is, no small portion of his value is connected to his ability to stay in good health. That has allowed him not only to fill up innings, but to do so at top speed. If the Nats are to chase down the Braves, or otherwise make noise in the postseason by entering through the Wild Card, they’ll need their ace in all his furious glory.

It goes without saying that Scherzer is irreplaceable. But the Nats may need to find another rotation piece over the next twelve days, particularly if there’s any concern that they may need to go a stretch without Scherzer. At present, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde account for the fifth rotation spot. Relying on those hurlers, with scant 40-man depth otherwise (Kyle McGowin, Joe Ross), would be dangerous. There’s no indication that Jeremy Hellickson is going to be an option at any point in the near future.

We already know the Nats will be looking for bullpen arms. But it’ll be interesting to see whether and how they approach the starting pitching market. Perhaps a swingman type would make sense as a partial hedge against a rotation need, without putting too many resources into a spot that may not need to be fully addressed.

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Washington Nationals Max Scherzer

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West Notes: D-backs, Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners

By Jeff Todd and Connor Byrne | July 20, 2019 at 1:05am CDT

Diamondbacks righty Jon Duplantier is back from the injured list, but he’s not heading onto the MLB roster. He’ll be optioned back to Triple-A, as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweets. It’s good to see that he’s ready to get back to action already. When Duplantier hit the shelf in mid-June with shoulder inflammation, there was at least some fear of a reasonably significant injury. In his first 25 frames of MLB action, the now-25-year-old worked to a 4.32 ERA with 24 strikeouts and nine walks.

  • After a brief run in their rotation, righty Jesse Chavez has returned to the Rangers’ bullpen, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. The club will recall lefty Joe Palumbo from Triple-A Nashville to start Monday in Seattle. Chavez is coming off three straight starts in which he yielded at least four earned runs, and his outing against Arizona on Wednesday was especially grisly. Chavez coughed up seven earned runs on five hits and a walk in two-thirds of an inning.
  • The Dodgers announced Friday that reliever Dylan Floro has been placed on the 10-day injured list with neck inflammation. He’s replaced by fellow righty Casey Sadler. Injury aside, Floro has been one of several Dodgers relievers to take steps back since last season. Floro combined for a 2.25 ERA and a 55.1 percent groundball rate in 64 innings between LA and Cincinnati in 2018, but he’s at 4.11 and 51.9 in those categories across 35 frames this year. While Floro has walked fewer hitters, his strikeout and home run rates have gone in the wrong direction.
  • Mariners reliever Hunter Strickland is on track for potential activation next weekend, per MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer (via Twitter). He’ll first need to make it through three rehab appearances at Triple-A, but it’s good news for the 30-year-old reliever, who has been sidelined for a long stretch with a lat injury. Strickland had been slated to serve as the Seattle closer until going on the IL on March 30 with a right lat strain.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers Notes Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Dylan Floro Hunter Strickland Jesse Chavez Jon Duplantier

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