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MLB Opposed To Near-Term Adoption Of Universal DH

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2019 at 3:15pm CDT

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said today at the owners’ meetings that the league is not interested in considering certain union-proposed changes in advance of the 2019 season, as Ronald Blum of the AP reports. In particular, Manfred indicated he is not open to the introduction of the designated hitter to the National League.

It emerged recently that MLB and the MLB Players Association were exchanging proposals on a variety of significant potential rules changes. Some of those, including the introduction of a twenty-second pitch clock and a rule requiring any pitcher that enters a game to face at least three hitters, were set forth by the league.

Manfred indicated that he was pleased the union responded to the league’s proposals, a fact which some observers have pointed to as a positive step given the chilly (if not altogether frozen) negotiation atmosphere between the sides of late. Despite the less-testy signals, though, it seems the league isn’t inclined to budge on any substantive matters.

It’s not at all surprising to hear that MLB doesn’t wish to pursue an immediate implementation of the DH in the NL. With a good bit of the offseason movement already in the books, it’d be an odd time to make such a move. That’s all the more true of some of the other union-backed proposals involving draft incentives and service time, which surely would require extensive analysis and negotiation.

It is notable, though, that Manfred suggested the league is also generally not receptive to considering the expansion of the DH until the conclusion of the present Collective Bargaining Agreement, at the end of the 2021 campaign. An unnamed official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that such a change is “not happening during this CBA.”

If that is indeed MLB’s committed stance, it seems to represent an intention to take a hard line on reopening the current rules regime before the deal is up. The issue of the universal DH seemed at least to offer a potential path to mutual benefit, as the league could market a bump in offense while veteran sluggers would find easier paths to roster spots and extra earnings.

Manfred, though, characterized that proposal (and others from the union) as presenting “significant economic issues” that are “different than the type of playing rule changes that we have out there.” That’s certainly true to an extent, but it’s also a bit of a partisan characterization of the league’s own suggestion that pitchers be required to face at least three batters. It’s debatable exactly how the ramifications of that rule would settle out in terms of player earnings, but it would certainly impact the way teams structure their rosters and invest in certain players (in that case, veteran LOOGYs) in much the same way as a universal DH.

It’ll be interesting to see where these discussions go from here. Manfred says the league “will engage on” the subjects raised by the union, so perhaps there’s still some room for an opening. It all takes place against the backdrop of a still-sluggish free agent market in which two young superstars and several other prominent players remain unsigned. Manfred acknowledged today that the hope is to see both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado under contract when Spring Training opens, though even if that occurs it’s hardly a guarantee of a reduction in tension. For the time being, both the league and union will presumably continue to trade words on these and other matters — cognizant all the while that these may be the preliminary skirmishes of a building public relations battle.

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Royals Sign Brad Boxberger To One-Year Contract

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 5:18pm CDT

Thursday: Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweets that Boxberger has passed his physical and officially signed with the Royals.

Wednesday: The Royals are “closing in” on a one-year contract with free-agent righty Brad Boxberger, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). A client of the Boras Corporation, he’ll receive a $2.2MM guarantee along with $1MM in potential incentives, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links).

The 30-year-old Boxberger was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility. He was projected to earn at a $4.9MM rate, owing in no small part to the fact that he racked up 32 saves last year.

At times, Boxberger has been quite an effective late-inning reliever. In his 284 1/3 total MLB innings, he carries a 3.42 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

As those numbers hint, opposing hitters have generally had a tough time making contact with Boxberger’s four-seam/change combo. On occasion, though, he has trouble inducing them to chase out of the zone and ends up doling out too many free passes. That’s what occurred in 2018, when he walked 32 in 53 1/3 innings and ended up with a 4.39 ERA on the year.

To be fair, Boxberger also racked up 12.0 K/9 in 2018, so he’s still capable of rather elite strikeout numbers. But his fastball velocity dropped below 92 mph for the first time in his career. With more time to react, opposing hitters only offered at 27.6% of the pitches that Boxberger left outside of the zone.

It’s not hard to imagine Boxberger competing for the closer’s job in Kansas City this spring. Wily Peralta took over that role last year, locking up saves in all of his 14 chances, but he doesn’t exactly have a longstanding history of success as a reliever and handed out 23 walks in his 34 1/3 innings on the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Kansas City Royals Newsstand Brad Boxberger

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Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | February 7, 2019 at 2:15pm CDT

2:15pm: The Phillies have announced the trade, acquiring Realmuto in exchange for Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and international funds. It seems, then, that the bonus money was the fourth component of the deal, rather than an additional minor league talent.

1:30pm: One of the winter’s biggest storylines has finally drawn to a close, as the Phillies and Marlins have agreed to a deal that will send star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter links). A four-player package will go to Miami in return, headlined by young backstop Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. Southpaw Will Stewart is one of the other pieces in the deal. The Marlins also acquire an international signing slot worth $250K, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links).

J.T. Realmuto | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The course of negotiations surrounding Realmuto took many twists and turns. At various times, it seemed he’d end up at a variety of different teams, with the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, Braves and Astros all rumored to be involved to varying extents. Ultimately, the Phillies emerged late as the winning suitor, with their willingness to include Sanchez, one of the game’s top-ranked pitching prospects, seemingly pushing things over the finish line.

With the move, the Phils will add two seasons of Realmuto, a player who has established himself as the game’s best backstop. He’s earning just $5.9MM in 2019 with one more season of arbitration eligibility still remaining. It’s certainly possible that the Phils will pursue extension talks with the 27-year-old, though there is no indication that the possibility of a long-term contract is an element of today’s transaction.

Some may wonder whether this represents an alternative to the Phils’ longstanding pursuit of top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Odds are, it only enhances the odds of such a major outlay. Parting with the years of cheap control over Alfaro and the upside of the two pitchers clearly positions the Phillies as a win-now club. And Realmuto is an affordable piece who won’t remotely clog the still-wide-open current and future Philadelphia balance sheets. His addition only further underscores the Phillies’ desire to win, which one would figure to be an appealing trait for either Machado or Harper. Of course, both are still expected to go to the highest bidder, but Philadelphia’s aggressive commitment to winning this offseason could be a tipping point in its favor should either top free agent be weighing similar offers from the Phillies and another suitor.

Future maneuverings aside, Realmuto himself provides a significant boost to the Phillies’ 2019 playoff chances. The 27-year-old missed the first few weeks of the 2018 campaign due to a minor back injury but came storming back with a terrific .277/.340/.484 batting line, 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto’s OPS+ (which is adjusted for home park and league) checked in at 139 — effectively indicating that he was 39 percent better than a league-average hitter. That’s all the more impressive when considering that catchers, on the whole, were about 10 to 15 percent less effective than a league-average bat. Put simply — there are few, if any catchers in baseball who could upgrade a lineup more than Realmuto.

Defensively speaking, Realmuto is solid across the board. He’s thrown out would-be base thieves at a 35 percent clip across the past three seasons and has turned in average or better pitch-blocking marks, per Baseball Prospectus, throughout his career. While Realmuto’s framing efforts graded out poorly early in his big league tenure, he drew above-average marks in 2017 and average marks last season, so the Phillies can likely expect at least average output in that regard. Realmuto isn’t the framer that Alfaro was in 2018, but he’s a better blocker, and it’s not unreasonable to think that he could be a three- or four-win upgrade over Alfaro on his own.

As one would expect for a player of Realmuto’s caliber, the cost of acquisition was hardly cheap. Alfaro will step directly into the Marlins’ lineup as the team’s primary new backstop. While his bat is a work in progress, his framing in 2018 was excellent, and scouting reports on him as a prospect often pegged him with an 80-grade arm (top of the 20-80 scale).

Jorge Alfaro | Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Alfaro hit .262/.324/.407 with 10 homers in 377 PAs last season, but there’s reason to doubt his ability to replicate that output. Specifically, Alfaro whiffed in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances and benefited from an eye-popping (and clearly unsustainable) .406 average on balls in play. The 25-year-old will need to improve on his contact skills if he’s to carve out a career as a regular, but the tools he possesses are undeniably enticing — particularly for a rebuilding club like Miami.

Sanchez, meanwhile, has rated among the game’s top pitching prospects for the past couple of seasons thanks to a triple-digit fastball and the potential for three average or better secondary offerings. The biggest question with him is health, as the righty was limited to 46 2/3 innings last season thanks to arm troubles (though none that required surgery). Sanchez reached the Class-A Advanced Florida State League as a 19-year-old last year — making him about four years younger than the average player in that league. Despite facing more advanced and experienced hitters, Sanchez pitched to a pristine 2.51 ERA with a terrific 45-to-11 K/BB ratio and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate in those 46 2/3 frames when healthy. He’s likely at least a year away from MLB readiness, but he’ll immediately become not just the most highly regarded pitcher in the Marlins organization but their clear-cut top prospect.

The addition of Stewart, 21, isn’t a throwaway note for the Marlins, either. A 20th-round pick back in 2015, the lefty has elevated his status with a strong showing to this point in his pro career and was ranked 18th among Phillies farmhands by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs just last month. Stewart was two years younger than his average opponent in Class-A last season but nonetheless worked to a 2.06 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a sensational 62.9 percent ground-ball rate in 113 2/3 innings as a starter. His sinker is complemented by a trio of potentially average offerings, and his significantly improved walk rate in ’18 is reason for further encouragement. The ceiling on Stewart is certainly lower than on Sanchez, but as ground-ball oriented pitcher with solid control, he could function as a nice back-of-the-rotation piece in the Marlins’ spacious home park if all pans out well.

In all, the Marlins have certainly positioned themselves to come away from the trade with a fair bit of value. While there’s certainly risk to the assets which they acquired — as is the case when trading any star player for unproven talent — Alfaro was long one of the game’s top catching prospects before debuting, and the most optimistic scouting reports on Sanchez peg him as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible that by mid-to-late 2020, both could be on the Marlins’ big league roster, and the addition of a solid arm such as Stewart, even if he’s more “high floor” than “high ceiling,” deepens the farm and presents another potential rotation piece.

The Phillies traded a pair of high-upside players, Alfaro and Sanchez, who could prove to be dynamic pieces for a division rival down the line but did so at a time when the NL East could legitimately be seized by any of the division’s top four teams. Realmuto will join new additions Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen alongside holdover Rhys Hoskins in the top portion of the Phillies’ lineup, and with the potential addition of Harper or Machado looming, his presence should be a key element in a dramatically improved lineup. The Phillies are aggressively looking to atone for last season’s late collapse, and the moves they’ve made, to date, seem quite likely to help the organization achieve that goal.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions J.T. Realmuto Jorge Alfaro Sixto Sanchez

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Realmuto, Harper, More

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 2:10pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

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MLBTR Chats

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Frank Robinson Passes Away

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 2:02pm CDT

Word emerged today that legendary former ballplayer and manager Frank Robinson has passed away at 83 years of age. MLBTR extends its condolences to the Hall of Famer’s family, friends, and many acquaintances around the game.

On the field, Robinson was one of the game’s most-feared sluggers for a nearly unfathomable stretch, with his first All-Star nod coming in his Rookie of the Year season of 1956 and his final one occurring in 1974, his final full campaign. In between, Robinson made a dozen additional All-Star appearances and won Most Valuable Player awards in both the National League (with the Reds in 1961) and American League (in 1966, his first season with the Orioles).

A paragon of consistency, Robinson’s worst seasons were the stuff of dreams for most MLB players. He ultimately appeared in 21 campaigns, compiling an eye-popping .294/.389/.537 lifetime batting line in 11,742 trips to the plate. Robinson not only racked up 586 career home runs — still tenth-most in history — but struck out only 789 times while drawing 698 walks.

Robinson’s legendary run as a player only tells part of his story. He finished out his time on the field as a player-manager of the Indians, making him the first African American manager in the history of baseball. Even while breaking barriers, Robinson’s supreme talent and determination showed through. In his first season leading the dugout, which was also his age-39 campaign as a player, he posted a 153 OPS+ and drew 29 walks against 15 strikeouts in 149 trips to the plate.

Robinson went on to run the dugouts of the Giants (becoming the first black manager in the National League), Orioles, and Expos/Nationals. Though he did not have a standout run of success in that job, with a 1065-1176 lifetime record as a skipper, Robinson later went on to take a prominent role in MLB operations and remained a highly respected member of the baseball community throughout. All told, his ongoing service cemented his legacy as one of baseball’s all-time lifers.

Robinson was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1982. He has had his number 20 retired by the Reds, Orioles, and Indians. And he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2005.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand

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Indians Sign Ryan Flaherty, Dioner Navarro

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 1:03pm CDT

The Indians have inked minors deals with infielder Ryan Flaherty and catcher Dioner Navarro, according to a club announcement. (H/t MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.) Both receive MLB camp invites.

Many Braves fans were encourage by a hot start to the 2018 season from Flaherty, though his early heroics never appeared sustainable and were largely a function of a .450 average on balls in play through his first 60 trips to the plate. Following that hot streak, Flaherty crumbled and hit .147/.223/.193 through season’s end. Flaherty, a career .216/.286/.347 hitter through parts of seven MLB seasons (1452 PAs) will give the Indians some depth at second base, shortstop and third base.

Navarro, meanwhile, didn’t appear in the big leagues or even in affiliated ball in either of the past two seasons. He’s a career .250/.309/.370 hitter in part of 13 MLB campaigns but will need to reestablish himself — be it in Spring Training or in Triple-A — after an underwhelming showing with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League in 2018. With the Ducks, Navarro batted .268/.299/.437 — albeit it in just 20 games.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Dioner Navarro Ryan Flaherty

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Mets Re-Sign Devin Mesoraco

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 12:43pm CDT

The Mets have announced the re-signing of catcher Devin Mesoraco. He’ll receive a minor-league pact with an invitation to Spring Training. The deal includes a $1.75MM salary at the MLB level, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets.

Mesoraco, 30, represents an important addition for the Mets. Wilson Ramos and Travis d’Arnaud presently sit atop the depth chart, but the latter (who has a non-guaranteed, $3,515,000 arbitration salary) remains a candidate to be traded or cut loose if the club sees an opportunity or prefers to save some cash.

Returning to the Mets makes sense for Mesoraco, though it’s surely a disappointment to do so without a roster spot. He suited up for 66 games with the club last year after coming over from the Reds in exchange for Matt Harvey — a swap that came together after both players ran out of chances with their original organizations.

Mesoraco turned things around at the plate upon landing in New York, though he didn’t sustain a hot start. Ultimately, he provided the Mets with 229 plate appearances of .222/.306/.409 hitting and swatted ten home runs. He turned in middling framing numbers and isn’t generally regarded as a standout defender, though Mesoraco did strike up a rapport with Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.

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New York Mets Transactions Devin Mesoraco

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Orioles To Sign Nate Karns

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 11:44am CDT

The Orioles have struck a deal with righty Nate Karns, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (Twitter link). He’ll earn $800K on a one-year term, with up to $200K in incentives.

This signing, the first of new GM Mike Elias’s tenure, looks to be a nice match for all involved. Karns will help fill out the O’s rotation, which had some questions at the back end. He’ll have a chance to show he can finally move past the health issues that have plagued him in recent years.

There’s upside here as well for the Baltimore organization. If Karns is at all successful, he ought to represent an appealing arbitration asset next fall. That’s not too great a concern for Karns, since he only would have one season of arb eligibility remaining. Effectively, the O’s pick up a club option the value of which will float with Karns’s on-field contributions. That contract situation also boosts the potential trade appeal if things go well.

Karns had hoped to get back on track last year after thoracic outlet surgery cut short his 2017 campaign. He agreed to a $1.375MM deal with the Royals for his first arb-eligible season. As it turned out, though, elbow issues arose that cost him all of 2018.

Previously, Karns had established himself as a talented, if somewhat inconsistent, MLB starter. He has thrown 310 2/3 total innings at the game’s highest level, carrying a 4.37 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.

Karns relies primarily on a four-seamer that sits just below 94 mph and a curve that he has historically spun on about one of every three pitches, with a change and sinker also rounding out his arsenal. That combination showed particular promise early in the ’17 campaign, with Karns carrying a personal-high 12.5% swinging-strike rate before going down.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Nate Karns

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Phillies, Marlins Working Out Details Of Prospective J.T. Realmuto Swap

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 11:19am CDT

Reports emerged this morning that momentum was growing between the Phillies and Marlins on a deal to send star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia. Now, it seems, the sides have made yet further strides, to the point that they appear to be on the cusp of a completed transaction.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post cites multiple sources (Twitter link) for the proposition that the negotiations are “down to physical reviews” and the supplemental prospect pieces in the swap. He reports that top Phillies pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez would join young backstop Jorge Alfaro as the two key pieces of the package.

That report builds upon prior indications of a nearing agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that two of the other organizations that had been pursuing Realmuto now believe he’s destined to land with the Phils. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM tweeted that he expects a deal to occur today, while MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the growing momentum with the Philadelphia organization specifically.

In terms of the final details of the package, it seems that’s still open to discussion. (One wonders whether other Marlins players or third teams could also be involved.) Sherman reports (Twitter links) that players under consideration including top-ten organizational prospects Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley, and Adonis Medina, with Jon Heyman of MLB Network reporting (Twitter links) that Alec Bohm, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Howard all also being talked about.

That bunch of names covers most of the top portion of the Phillies farm, so there’ still a good bit of variability in the outcome here. Sherman says the outlook for the deal still looks good — indeed, Sanchez’s medicals are already under review in Miami — but there’s haggling left to go. The Marlins want four total players and are unsurprisingly trying to pry loose some of the Phils’ best remaining farm assets.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies J.T. Realmuto Jorge Alfaro Mickey Moniak Sixto Sanchez

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10 Low-Cost Right-Handed Relief Options

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2019 at 10:43am CDT

As we wait for the final market moves to be revealed, we have been breaking out the remaining free agents in different ways to see just what is left to address various teams’ needs. Yesterday we looked at innings-fillers from the rotation and before that we ran through the power bats. Today, we’ll check in on the right-handed relief market.

As before, we’ll be skipping over those players who MLBTR predicted to secure multi-year deals entering the winter (in this case, Craig Kimbrel and Bud Norris). The most intriguing remaining righty pen arms, in order of innings pitched:

Tyler Clippard: While he did not make it back to his once-excellent levels of performance, Clippard showed in 2018 that he can still be a useful MLB reliever. He posted 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 through a hefty workload of 68 2/3 frames. Home runs were a problem — one that likely won’t fully go away given Clippard’s incredibly flyball-heavy approach — but didn’t prevent him from carrying a 3.67 ERA.

Sergio Romo: Rumored to be nearing a deal, Romo’s chief appeal lies in the fact that he’s still capable of getting swings and misses at will. He was dinged by the longball last year but managed an appealing combination of 10.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in his 67 1/3 frames with the Rays.

Jim Johnson: His days as a late-inning arm are likely over, but the veteran hurler still draws grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. Last year, he worked t a 3.84 ERA in 63 1/3 innings despite producing only 6.4 K/9 to go with 3.1 BB/9.

Alex Wilson: It’s a similar story for Wilson, who was a somewhat surprising non-tender victim this fall. He just topped Johnson in 2018 groundball rate (49.2%), helping him to post a 3.36 ERA in 61 2/3 innings despite a tepid combination of 6.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

Nick Vincent: Here’s another established hurler who lost his roster spot due in part to anticipated arbitration costs ($3.5MM). Vincent has yet to finish a season having allowed four or more earned runs per nine, with a cumulative 3.17 ERA in 332 innings as a major leaguer. He did allow a career-high 3.99 ERA in his 56 1/3 innings last year, but ERA estimators generally viewed him as a solid contributor (3.75 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA).

John Axford: The veteran hurler still brings plenty of velocity and gets lots of groundballs with a fair number of whiffs. He also wrapped up the 2018 season with less walks than usual (3.6 BB/9). Despite generally positive ERA estimator grades (3.98 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA), Axford managed only a 5.27 ERA in his 54 2/3 innings.

Ryan Madson: Replace the grounders with a more appealing K/BB ratio and it’s the same story for the hard-throwing Madson, who suffered from a .340 BABIP-against and like Axford failed to turn things around after a mid-season acquisition by the Dodgers. Madson finished 2018 with a 5.47 ERA but scored a 3.98 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, and 3.54 SIERA. His outstanding 2017 campaign is also a factor to consider.

Adam Warren: He’s coming off of a campaign in which he spun 51 2/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball, his second-straight season with excellent bottom-line results. The 31-year-old hasn’t quite supported the outcomes with his peripherals, though his combination of 9.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 37.6% groundball rate would nevertheless leave Warren looking like a solid relief asset.

Daniel Hudson: The outcomes still haven’t quite come around for Hudson, who has been targeted by teams that like the upside in his 96 mph heat. Last year with the Dodgers, he carried a 4.11 ERA in 46 frames despite benefiting from a .256 BABIP-against, with ERA estimators suggesting the results were largely deserved. Still, it’s hard not to like the velo and the 12.8% swinging-strike rate.

Erik Goeddel: Yet another recent Dodgers reliever rounds out our list. Goeddel had a nice bounceback in 2018, spinning 36 2/3 frames of 2.95 ERA ball, yet nevertheless was dropped at the end of the season. The problem? With his 10.8 K/9 came 4.9 BB/9. Walk issues have cropped up for Goeddel before, though never to an extreme degree. Other teams surely took note of the fact that Goeddel conned opposing hitters into offering at 37.4% of his pitches outside of the zone in 2018, leading them to make hard contact at a meager 23.3% rate while swinging and missing at 15.8% of his pitches.

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