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Phillies “Gaining Momentum” In Pursuit Of J.T. Realmuto

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THURSDAY: The Phillies are “gaining momentum” in their pursuit of Realmuto, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Precisely what that means isn’t clear, but it seems the sides have reason to believe they could line up on a swap.

Mish tweets that he expects a deal to occur today, though he does not specify that Realmuto will necessarily be sent to the Phils.

WEDNESDAY, 4:00pm: Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Daily News also hears that the Marlins’ preference is to find a deal for Realmuto in the very near future (Twitter link). Like Frisaro, he notes that Sanchez is viewed by the Marlins as a key piece in the deal, adding that young catcher Jorge Alfaro would need to be included in the swap as well.

1:46pm: The Marlins will demand top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez in any deal with the Phils, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.

Frisaro notes that the Miami organization would like to wrap up a deal with one of the remaining suitors before the club holds its annual FanFest event this Saturday.

TUESDAY: The Phillies appear to be re-emerging as a candidate to land Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted earlier today that the clubs have been in contact of late, while Yahoo’s Tim Brown now notes on Twitter that “there could be some traction” between the clubs, suggesting it is a situation to monitor.

As ever, it’s worth taking this news with a grain of salt. The trade saga surrounding Realmuto has dragged on for the entirety of the offseason, with numerous reports suggesting that certain suitors were rising or falling in likelihood. With February upon us, Realmuto remains a Marlin.

That said, this match makes potential sense on paper and these particular journalists aren’t prone to dropping bread crumbs of information in a scattershot manner. On the Marlins’ side, it seems all but certain that the Miami club will end up shipping Realmuto elsewhere. Following an outstanding 2018 season, and with two seasons to go before he reaches free agency, his value will never be higher. There are plenty of interesting assets in the Phillies system that would hold appeal to the rebuilding Marlins.

The Phillies have been eyeing up major acquisitions all winter long, but haven’t yet pulled the trigger. While the focus has been elsewhere, it’s plenty arguable that the team could stand to improve behind the dish. Jorge Alfaro has promise, and has been rather productive thus far in the majors, but is far from a sure thing after striking out 138 times in 377 plate appearances last year. Meanwhile, Andrew Knapp struggled a fair bit in his first full effort at the game’s highest level.

This latest chatter may not lead to anything. We recently heard that the Reds were progressing in talks on Realmuto, only for that talk to fall off. Over the weekend, reports emerged and were then shot down that the Rays were back in the hunt. It has been suggested that negotiations were nearing a crescendo, but things remain unresolved.

Still, it’s certainly intriguing to imagine that the Phils are making a push here. The club could conceivably envision a strike for Realmuto as part of a broader late-market push to land multiple high-end players. Realmuto, after all, is earning only $5.9MM in 2019, so his salary won’t make much of a dent and surely won’t preclude much larger expenditures. Alfaro could in theory be a part of the return, as he’d be just the sort of controllable, reasonably high-upside MLB asset that would help the Marlins feel good about parting with their best player. And it may be coincidental, but it’s worth noting that the Phils just struck a deal with veteran Drew Butera, who might in theory make for a sensible reserve to pair with a heavily used regular such as Realmuto.

Investigation Finds No “Credible Evidence” Of Alleged Racist Statements By Mariners Employees

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An independent investigation “did not uncover any credible evidence” to support allegations by Dr. Lorena Martin that high-placed Mariners employees made racist comments and improperly fired certain Latino employees, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports.

Martin served as director of high performance for the Mariners until she was terminated last October. Thereafter, Martin publicly alleged that GM Jerry Dipoto, manager Scott Servais, and director of player development Andy McKay had used language labeling Latino players “lazy, dumb, and stupid” and had fired Dominican trainers “because of their color/race.” Major League Baseball launched an investigation into the allegations, hiring the law firm Epstein Becker Green to conduct it.

In light of the investigation’s findings, which were reached by the firm after it conducted seventeen interviews, it seems the commissioner’s office will not pursue any disciplinary action against the Mariners organization under the league’s workplace code of conduct. However, the conclusion of the league inquiry does not resolve the still-pending lawsuit that Martin brought against the organization regarding her termination.

For her part, Martin issued a statement casting doubt on the process. As she notes, the lead attorney on the matter, Jennifer Gefsky, has deep ties to Major League Baseball and commissioner Rob Manfred. Per Martin, Gefsky and her firm focused mostly on speaking with current Mariners employees and did not contact “corroborative witnesses” that she identified during her own interview. Additionally, referring to her prior allegations, Martin says that Gefsky “chose not to speak with any of the Dominican trainers who were fired who could attest to the discriminatory conduct.”

8 Low-Cost Rotation Depth Options

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We ran through some of the remaining sources of offensive power yesterday. Today, we’ll do the same for rotation pieces. There are not all that many established starters left on the market, but there are still a handful who stand out as plausible candidates to gobble up some frames without costing much for an acquiring team. (Jeremy Hellickson would’ve been included here had he not agreed to terms with the Nats this morning.) As before, we’ll be ignoring those players who MLBTR predicted to secure multi-year deals entering the winter (e.g. Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez).

Presented in order of 2018 innings pitched…

James Shields: He topped 200 frames for the tenth time in 2018, so teams looking for volume will have to place Shields on the top of their value list. True, the results (4.53 ERA) and peripherals (6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9, 35.2% GB rate) weren’t exciting, but Shields is also a respected staff member who’d be valued for his positive influence on teammates. For the right organization, he’s a viable innings eater.

Bartolo Colon: Yep, he’s back — or at least he hopes to be. Home runs were a big problem last year for Big Sexy, but he still racked up 146 1/3 frames on the year for the Rangers. As with Shields, there won’t likely be much interest from contenders, but other teams that are thin on upper-level pitching depth could look to Colon as a cheap source of innings.

Clay Buchholz: It’s quite a different story for the 34-year-old Buchholz, who had a nice turnaround campaign before it was cut short by yet another injury. Organizations that are interested in building waves of talented arms, whether or not they come with health concerns, will certainly be intrigued by Buchholz, even if his peripherals (7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 42.6% GB rate) didn’t quite support the sparkling 2.01 ERA he carried through 98 1/3 innings last year in Arizona.

Yovani Gallardo: Though he made it through 94 1/3 innings, the outcomes weren’t pretty for Gallardo. Memories of his days as a sturdy mid-rotation starter are long faded, though perhaps there’s reason to believe in at least some amount of positive regression. Gallardo’s 6.39 ERA in 2018 was caused in some part by a low 64.5% strand rate. Of course, ERA estimators still valued his contributions in the low-5.00 realm, so there’s not a ton of room for optimism.

Edwin Jackson: Jackson ran up a productive ERA in about a half-season of work as a key member of Oakland’s patchwork rotation. But the spread in this case between his ERA (3.33) and ERA estimators (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA) is significant. Jackson is still averaging better than 93 mph on his heater, but he likely won’t benefit again from a .240 batting average on balls in play from opposing hitters.

Brett Anderson: Some will be surprised to learn that Anderson only celebrated his 31st birthday earlier this month. The lefty debuted as a 21-year-old and has had a tumultuous career, but he put forth a solid effort in 80 1/3 frames with the A’s in ’18. Anderson registered a 55.6 percent grounder rate and notched a career-best 1.46 BB/9. He doesn’t miss many bats and has a long injury history, but the southpaw’s knack for keeping the ball on the ground and his typically low walk rates could be appealing for a team seeking depth rather than a candidate to make 30 starts.

Doug Fister: A knee injury wrecked Fister’s 2018 season, but the righty displayed his typical penchant for keeping the ball on the ground (50.4 percent) and avoiding free passes (2.5 BB/9). Fister managed a 4.50 ERA in 66 innings — nearly half of which came at the launching pad that is Globe Life Park in Arlington. It’s an extraordinarily small sample, to be sure, but the righty did notch a 2.82 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 35 2/3 innings on the road. As far as depth options go, clubs could do far worse than the 35-year-old veteran.

Ervin Santana: Only 10 pitchers threw more innings than Santana between the 2016-17 seasons, but an injured tendon in his pitching hand that required surgery last offseason more or less wiped out his entire 2018 campaign. It’s perhaps heartening that the injury wasn’t specific to the his elbow or shoulder. Santana’s results in 24 2/3 innings were awful (22 runs on 31 hits and nine walks), though it’s unlikely that he was healthy when on the hill. He may be 36 now, but Santana posted a combined 3.52 ERA in 907 2/3 frames from 2013-17. If his hand is healed up, he could be the best bet for a productive season on this list.

Pirates To Sign Tom Koehler

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6:35pm: Though the contract is a minor league pact, there’s a club option for the 2020 season attached to the deal, tweets Robert Murray of The Athletic. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the deal comes with an $850K base salary and $250K of incentives in 2019, while the 2020 option is for a guaranteed $1.25MM with another $1.25MM worth of incentives.

2:26pm: The Pirates have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty Tom Koehler, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It will not include an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

The lack of a spring invite isn’t really an indication of Koehler’s ability level so much as it is a reflection of his health status. As Biertempfel notes, the 32-year-old is still on a lengthy rehab timeline after undergoing shoulder surgery in July. There’s no clear timetable for his return at this point.

This time last year, Koehler looked to be an intriguing addition to the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Long a useful but underwhelming starter, Koehler had a nice run upon moving to the bullpen and altering his pitch mix late in the 2017 campaign. He ultimately turned in a 17-inning stretch over which he racked up an 18:6 K/BB ratio and permitted only five earned runs, which prompted Los Angeles to add him on a big league deal. However, a spring shoulder injury prevented him from logging a single inning during the 2018 season.

If Koehler can get back to full health, he could be a worthwhile asset for the Bucs — likely in the bullpen at this juncture. For the time being, the focus will simply be on rebuilding physical strength and putting the shoulder injury behind him to the extent possible.

Pirates Sign Nick Franklin

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The Pirates have signed utilityman Nick Franklin to a minors pact, per a club announcement. It comes with an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training, where Franklin will do battle with a number of other infield/utility candidates.

Franklin, a former first-round draft pick, has appeared all over the field at the MLB level, but the bulk of his time has come at second base. He has seen time in the corner outfield, at short, and at first as well (in addition to one frame a piece at third base and on the hill).

While he showed promise upon cracking the majors with the Mariners in 2013, and again ticked upward in 2016 with the Rays, Franklin has failed to establish himself at the game’s highest level. He has struggled in limited MLB action in the past two seasons with the Brewers and Angels. Through 923 total plate appearances in his six seasons in the majors, Franklin carries a .214/.285/.359 batting line with 24 home runs and 17 steals.

Giants Reportedly Enter Mix For Bryce Harper

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The Giants have reportedly entered the mix for star free agent Bryce Harper. Randy Miller of NJ.com tweeted the connection, with Jon Heyman of MLB Network adding on Twitter that the club has recently met with Harper.

It is not yet clear how serious the interest is on behalf of the San Francisco organization, which is already dealing with quite a few large contract entanglements and recently turned over its baseball operations to Farhan Zaidi. Still, it’s intriguing to hear the connection. Zaidi was joined by owner Larry Baer and skipper Bruce Bochy in the sit-down, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports notes in a tweet.

Harper was already known to have met recently with the NL West rival Padres. Heyman suggests that multiple new organizations have entered the picture of late, which certainly could suggest that agent Scott Boras has sought to expand the pool of possibilities. Just what that suggests about Harper’s market and asking price isn’t clear.

It had long seemed that the Giants would be a leading potential landing spot for Harper, due to the team’s obvious need for youthful stars — particularly in the outfield — and history of maintaining high payrolls. But with the organization engineering a baseball ops shake-up after a pair of disappointing seasons, the match became much less certain.

Zaidi made his name finding value for the A’s and then scaling that process up as GM of the Dodgers. Plunking down huge dollars over long terms has not been a signature tenet of his approach as an executive. And the Giants are already loaded with underperforming contracts, some worse than others, that have left the organization with relatively little wiggle room beneath the competitive balance tax threshold.

That’s not to say that the San Francisco organization doesn’t make any sense as a Harper suitor. Even if immediate contention isn’t completely reasonable, the club has plenty of high-quality veteran players. With some creativity, the luxury tax barrier could also be dealt with. Zaidi noted at the outset of his tenure that he expects the organization’s decisions on premium talent to be “driven more by baseball need and opportunity than kind of working backwards from a payroll.” He cast doubt then on pursuit of a star free agent, but did not rule out the concept entirely.

Nationals To Re-Sign Jeremy Hellickson

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The Nationals have reportedly agreed to re-sign righty Jeremy Hellickson to a one-year, MLB contract. Hellickson, a client of the Boras Corporation, will earn a $1.3MM base rate and could achieve up to $4MM in incentive pay.

The extra cash is tied to the number of starts Hellickson makes. He can take home $200K bonuses upon reaching his 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 18th, 21st, and 23rd start and another $300K apiece for numbers 25 through 30.

Hellickson commands a big league roster spot after a productive 2018 season in D.C. Otherwise, the deal is rather similar to the one he took last year, a minor-league arrangement with a $2MM MLB salary and $4MM incentive package that ultimately paid dividends for both player and team.

Hellickson ultimately threw 91 1/3 innings over 19 starts, producing a 3.45 ERA for the Nats. The club rarely allowed him to face an opposing order for a third time. And understandably so: Hellickson was tagged for a .419/.500/.721 slash by the fifty opposing hitters that stepped into the box against him after two prior looks.

Even with that judicious deployment accounted for, ERA estimators weren’t totally sold on the outcome. Odds are, the Nats also would anticipate Hellickson regressing toward the levels of productivity that the metrics support. Still, for a fifth rotation/long-man candidate, those numbers — FIP (4.22), xFIP (4.27) and SIERA (4.33) — were rather promising.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Nationals approach their roster this spring. The club invested heavily to add Patrick Corbin at the top of the staff and committed to veteran Anibal Sanchez as a number-four starter. With Hellickson back in the fold, younger hurlers Joe Ross and Erick Fedde may be on the outside looking in. Those pitchers could end up winning a rotation job in camp, checking down to a bullpen job, or starting the season on optional assignment.

Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM reported (Twitter links) that the sides were in discussions and later detailed the incentives. MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reported (Twitter link) the sides were “progressing.” Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported a deal was in place and provided financial details, while Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweeted that it was a MLB contract. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Sign Ty Kelly

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The Angels have added utilityman Ty Kelly on a minors deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter .The agreement does not come with a spring invite, Robert Murray of The Athletic adds on Twitter.

Kelly, 30, has found his way to the majors in each of the past three seasons, though he has yet to command a lengthy shot at the game’s highest level. Through 188 total plate appearances, he carries a .203/.288/.323 slash.

While he’s capable of lining up in the corner outfield, Kelly has spent most of his time in the minors at second and third base. He has some experience at short, but hasn’t been trusted there in the majors, which significantly limits his utility.

Still, Kelly is a worthwhile depth piece to have on hand. Through parts of seven seasons at Triple-A, he’s a .272/.375/.392 hitter with nearly as many walks (281) as strikeouts (329).

Tommy Pham Wins Arbitration Case Against Rays

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Outfilder Tommy Pham won his arbitration case against the Rays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The GSE client will earn $4.1MM rather than the $3.5MM figure that the team had submitted.

This victory may not make for a particularly massive increase in Pham’s 2019 earnings, but it’s a substantial sum that will also be reflected in both of his two ensuing arb paydays. Arbitration salaries are critical to any player, but are perhaps of particular importance to Pham, given that he’ll reach his 31st birthday before the start of the 2019 season.

The Tampa Bay organization happily took a chance on the late-blooming Pham over the summer and will still enjoy his services at an appealing rate of pay. Pham raked upon joining the Rays, slashing .343/.448/.623 down the stretch. All told, he’s now a .279/.375/.482 hitter through 1,458 MLB plate appearances.

This decision is now reflected in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Carlos Correa Wins Arbitration Case Against Astros

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Shortstop Carlos Correa won his arbitration case against the Astros, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The GSE client will earn $5MM rather than the $4.25MM figure that the team had submitted.

One of the game’s brightest young stars, Correa picked a poor time for his first misstep in the majors. After turning in monster offensive numbers in an injury-limited 2017 season, the former Rookie of the Year again missed time in 2018 and wasn’t quite himself at the plate. He ended up posting a .239/.323/.405 slash over 468 plate appearances.

So long as Correa can put his back issues behind him, his outlook remains quite bright. He’ll still open his arb earning period with a strong $5MM base rate, though that’s about half of what he might have taken home with a platform season that better matched his prior offensive output. (Fellow youthful star shortstop Francisco Lindor earned $10.55MM after posting his best offensive season in his final pre-arb year.)

This decision is now reflected in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

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