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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Marlins will enter the offseason focused on trading some veterans and gathering up as much young talent as possible.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Miami Marlins Payroll Information]

The Marlins have already knocked out a key piece of offseason business, landing Cuba’s Mesa brothers off of the international market. Elder brother Victor Victor Mesa may not be too far from the majors, though surely the Miami organization will take care not to rush him.

After all, there are no expectations that the team will be competitive at the MLB level in the near future. The Marlins won 63 games in 2018 after an offseason chock full of change. Most of the veteran players that weren’t dealt over the winter, but could be moved over the summer, ended up heading out the door.

That’s not to say, of course, that there weren’t some exceptions. First and foremost is catcher J.T. Realmuto. While the organization insists it intends to pursue an extension with the 27-year-old, who emerged in 2018 as arguably the game’s best overall backstop, it’ll be hard pressed to convince him to sign on (at least, at a palatable rate of pay).

It seems quite likely, then, that the Marlins will at least entertain trade offers. Perhaps it’s likelier still that the club will once again act as auctioneer, asking rivals with interest in Realmuto to come forward with offers. With two more years of affordable control remaining, Realmuto has a rather appealing contractual situation to go along with his on-field excellence and a significant amount of demand at the position.

The Marlins will need to choose wisely from the offers they receive on Realmuto, assuming that’s the route they take, because he’s the last top shelf label behind the bar. That said, the club does have some other candidates to move.

Starter Dan Straily is arguably the next-most valuable veteran asset, though rough peripherals lurked behind his 4.12 ERA from the 2018 campaign. Left-handed-hitting utilityman Derek Dietrich has produced above the league average with the bat in each of the past four seasons, though his glovework isn’t much-loved by metrics. And though he hasn’t drawn much interest over the past year, second baseman Starlin Castro has turned in consecutive solid campaigns and would seemingly represent a useful piece for the right organization. Finally, it’s not too hard to imagine southpaw Adam Conley being moved; interest may not be all that great, but he has had his moments and is still affordable and controllable.

Other potential trade assets seem less likely. The Marlins would dearly love to free their payroll of some of what’s owed to Wei-Yin Chen and Martin Prado, but it’s hard to imagine either will be candidates to move unless and until they show some life in the first half of the 2019 campaign. Dealing more youthful players likely won’t make a ton of sense, though perhaps it’s not possible to rule that out. Drew Steckenrider has loads of cheap control remaining, but he’s a reliever and therefore arguably ought to be cashed in if the price is right. Starter Jose Urena, who is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, probably shouldn’t be taken off the shelf entirely. It’s always possible another team will come calling with an offer that’s too good to pass up, as the Marlins themselves did to acquire Straily.

If it seems as if this post has dwelled quite a bit on what the Marlins might part with, well, that’s because the time still doesn’t seem ripe for this club to begin building up in earnest. What does the MLB roster need, in particular? Talent, anywhere and everywhere.

Indeed, third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson is arguably the only youthful position player who has fully locked up a roster spot before camp opens. Otherwise, beyond the short-term veterans mentioned above — any one of whom could be traded — there’s immense uncertainty. After a nice 22-game run at the plate, long-time minor-league slugger Peter O’Brien arguably has the inside track at first base, which he could share in part with a healthy Garrett Cooper (who’s also a possibility in the corner outfield). JT Riddle could handle a chunk of the time at short. In the outfield, Lewis Brinson might be allowed to sink or swim in the bigs but could also end up back at Triple-A. Monte Harrison isn’t far from getting his first shot and Magneuris Sierra is also among the other near-term possibilities.

Given that state of affairs, there’s opportunity aplenty in Miami, which should make it a popular destination for young-ish castaways looking for a shot at the big leagues. The Marlins front office will no doubt look for ways to take advantage of the situation, including waiver claims, the Rule 5 draft, minor-league signings, and trades for players that don’t quite fit on other 40-man rosters. At the end of the day, there isn’t a single position on the diamond where existing options will cause the club to shy away from taking a low-risk chance on a player they really like. (Even Anderson, after all, isn’t locked into a single position.)

The state of affairs is a bit different on the pitching side, though there are quite a few openings there as well. The Fish hooked some interesting arms last year, with Caleb Smith and Trevor Richards emerging as cost-efficient starters with some promise. Since the Marlins will want to see if Chen can pitch his way back into a tradeable asset, the starting five cold be set with Urena and Straily.

Of course, the Marlins could choose to be aggressive and find a way to put top prospect Sandy Alcantara back in the rotation despite his walk problems in a six-game stint in 2018. There are also quite a few other young starters on the 40-man — most notably, out-of-nowhere righty Pablo Lopez — which perhaps provides added impetus to the notion of dealing away one or more of the veterans.

There are pitching options, to be sure, but that doesn’t mean the Marlins will hesitate to pick up intriguing rotation pieces should they see a way to do so at a nice value. If that creates any 25-man and/or 40-man roster pressures, then the leftover arms can slide into a bullpen that is quite light on sure things. Having already traded away Kyle Barraclough, the Marlins’ most experienced relievers are now pitchers like Conley, Nick Wittgren, and Jarlin Garcia. While existing players can fill out the relief corps, it’s another area that’s fully susceptible of improvement.

In this situation, it’s hard to imagine the Marlins really even having much preference at all other than to get the most talented possible players into the organization. There’s little sense in resolving would-be logjams before they exist. While that makes for a rather boring offseason preview piece, it also leaves the door wide open for a creative and fruitful winter.

Brewers Announce Changes To Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced today that they will be seeking two new coaches, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report (Twitter link). Hitting coach Darnell Coles decided to leave the organization, while bullpen coach Lee Tunell and head athletic trainer Dan Wright will not be asked back.

Unsurprisingly, manager Craig Counsell will be back for his third full season in the dugout. He’ll be looking for a pair of new lieutenants for the 2019 season and will also be working with a new head trainer, as the club has decided to move on from Dan Wright.

Coles, a long-time major-leaguer, had served as hitting coach since the 2015 season. The 56-year-old had previously worked in the Milwaukee farm system before joining the Tigers as assistant hitting coach. Current Brewers hitting coach Jason Lane is said to be a possible candidate to take over for Coles but will also be allowed to pursue jobs with other clubs.

As for Tunnell, he’ll move on after a long run as the club’s bullpen coach. A former big league hurler, he had stepped into the position in the middle of the 2012 season and held onto the job when Counsell took over for Ron Roenicke.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Starting Pitchers

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This is the final installment in our Market Snapshot series. Let’s check in on the array of possibilities for teams looking at rotation improvements.

Teams In Need

There are few teams that won’t at least consider some kind of tweaks to their rotation mix in any given offseason. Some, though, stand out as worthy of particular attention.

A variety of contenders will be looking to get better and perhaps also boost depth. The Astros, Angels, Athletics, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves all have needs. It’s possible the Phillies, Cardinals, and Red Sox could look to improve, even if they could also might largely hold pat. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions that the Padres and Reds are serious about getting new rotation pieces in place.

The Brewers held off on any major improvements last winter but tried to add Yu Darvish, so could again seek arms. Similarly, the creative Rays have some money to spend and surely wouldn’t mind adding productive starters at a good value despite the successes of their non-traditional staff management. Though their anticipated competitiveness may be somewhat in doubt, it’d be unwise to count out clubs such as the Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Even clubs like the White Sox and Royals could at least go looking for depth, while serving as wild cards to do more.

Free Agents

Frontline: Clayton Kershaw is still the big name to watch, assuming he opts out as expected. While he won’t take home the kind of whopping deal that once seemed possible, he’ll still draw plenty of attention — if he doesn’t work something out with the Dodgers in advance. Patrick Corbin is coming off of a huge season at relatively youthful age and figures to be of keen interest. The somewhat older and generally more accomplished Dallas Keuchel is also in line for a big contract, but perhaps doesn’t have the earning upside of Corbin. Charlie Morton could ring up a big payday, though his own geographical and competitive preferences may lead him to feature as a nice value.

Mid-rotation: Nathan Eovaldi is arguably the most fascinating pitcher to watch, given his age, loud stuff, and recent success after a run of health issues. Another wild card could be coming from Japan in the form of southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who may well be posted.

As they did on the trade market, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels (if his option isn’t exercised), and Gio Gonzalez can offer quality veteran frames. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had major injury issues but has also been excellent when healthy. You could probably debate how to categorize Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Derek Holland, but we’ll keep them here since all have solid cases for multi-year commitments.

CC Sabathia can still get the job done, though he’ll likely go for another single-year pact. It’ll be interesting to see how the market treats Anibal Sanchez after his stunning bounceback year in Atlanta, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.

Back-end: Wade Miley and Lance Lynn also had interesting seasons. The former had great results that aren’t fully backed by peripherals (at least, if you don’t believe he can sustain his home run suppression), while the latter was dinged for nearly 5 earned per nine on the year but put up some impressive peripherals after being traded to the Yankees.

Other pitchers that had at least reasonably productive 2018 seasons, but otherwise come with some less desirable features, include Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Edwin Jackson, Tyson Ross, and James Shields. Bounceback candidates include Drew Pomeranz, Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez, while Garrett Richards seems situated to ink a two-year deal while he finishes his Tommy John rehab.

Depth: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Drew Hutchison, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin

Trade Candidates

Top targets: Contenders will see how a new Mets front office feels about Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler, with a feeding frenzy sure to ensue if they’re made available. It’s perhaps equally unlikely that the Giants will put Madison Bumgarner up for option, but he’d be a fascinating player to see the market value given his outstanding track record and more recent warning signs. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Diamondbacks will market Zack Greinke, who’s awfully pricey but is now playing on a three-year term and is still very good.

Mid-rotation targets: We’ve already seen clear indication that the Yankees will try to find a taker for Sonny Gray after a rough campaign. Andrew Cashner (Orioles), Ivan Nova (Pirates) and Tanner Roark (Nationals) are other potential trade candidates who have of innings. None of these pitchers is cheap, but all are available on one-year commitments.

The Blue Jays would get plenty of interest if they decided to move on from Marcus Stroman, though it’s not clear that’ll happen. Likewise, Arizona hurlers Robbie Ray and Zach Godley would be of  interest elsewhere. Other talented pitchers who have struggled recently include Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and Danny Duffy of the Royals.

Other pitchers could come available if teams like the Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies seek upgrades, though it’s hard to guess at the possibilities at this point.

Contract dumps: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Tyler Chatwood (Cubs), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Cobb (Orioles), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Homer Bailey (Reds)

Twins Interviewing Finalists For Managerial Opening

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We previously tracked the early stages of the Twins’ managerial search in an earlier post. Now, the Twins have pared the field down to a handful (or less) of candidates, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. It’s not yet entirely clear which names are still under consideration, but at least three are known to be finalists.

With second-round interviews now underway, we’ll use this post to keep tabs on further developments:

Finalists

  • Current Twins bench coach Derek Shelton remains under consideration after impressing in his first-round chat with the front office brass, Miller adds. Though he served for only one season as the top lieutenant to recently dismissed skipper Paul Molitor, it’s worth remembering that Shelton was brought into the fold in Minnesota under the guidance of current top baseball ops executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
  • Rays field coordinator Rocco Baldelli was in Minneapolis for another interview on Monday, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Wolfson notes that Minnesota could hire Baldelli and retain Shelton as his bench coach. Baldelli and Shelton know each other well from their time working together in the Rays organization.
  • Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde is also viewed as a finalist and will get a second interview, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). Like Shelton, Hyde has limited experience as a bench coach but otherwise has plenty of other relevant experience. In addition to his time as a MLB coach, Hyde has served several seasons as a minor-league skipper.

Status Unknown

  • La Velle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune noted recently that retired catcher David Ross could yet remain in the mix. But Patrick Mooney of The Athletic tweets that Ross has not yet interviewed, which may suggest he’s not under consideration at this time.

No Longer Under Consideration

  • Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Giants bench coach Hensley Meulens are believed to be out of the running, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Both had received initial interviews.

Rays Reportedly Nearing Deal With Sandy Gaston

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The Rays appear to be closing in on a deal with Cuban right-hander Sandy Gaston that will pay him a $2.6MM bonus. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (Spanish-language link) reports that the sides are already in agreement, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times hears (Twitter link) they are still working toward a finalized deal. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweeted last night that the sides were nearing agreement on a deal.

If the contract hits the books, the 17-year-old Gaston will absorb the bulk of Tampa Bay’s remaining international spending pool, which had stood at $3.5MM. It is not entirely clear to what extent the organization’s proximity to Gaston’s homeland played into the decision, but it surely did not hurt their odds.

For their money, the Rays will get a player who was rated as the 24th overall international prospect by Ben Badler of Baseball America. Gaston is best known for his big velocity, which he showed off in a recent showcase for MLB clubs. That’s a loud tool for a young hurler, but Badler also notes that Gaston otherwise lacks polish. His offspeed offerings and ability to consistently command the baseball remain in question, though certainly he has plenty of time to iron things out.

Gaston will join several other highly-regarded players to round out the Tampa Bay recruiting class. Per Badler’s signing tracker, the Rays have also landed 13th overall prospect Alejando Pie as well as four other top-fifty talents and a variety of additional players.

With the news, the Orioles have now missed out on the three top prospects left on the international market — at least, by general reputation. The Marlins recently wrapped up deals with Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr., fellow Cuban players who had held a showcase with Gaston.

It’s a rather curious situation, as the Baltimore organization had prioritized the aggregation of bonus pool availability of late and has a hefty $6.5MM still left to spend, by far the largest sum in baseball. At last look, the club was said still to be chasing Gaston, even as it seeks a new leader for its baseball operations department. Ebro notes that there was close competition for the intriguing young hurler. The Orioles’ back-up plans remain unclear.

AL Notes: Eovaldi, Gaston, Castellanos, Astros

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As he prepares for the World Series, Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi says he has yet to have any talks with the club regarding a deal that would keep him off of the open market, John Tomase of WEEI.com reports. The hurler says he’d “love to be back,” though unsurprisingly it looks as if he’ll test the open market first. It’s certainly possible to imagine a fit with Boston, though the same could be said of quite a few other organizations as well.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • There’s some belief that the Rays will land Cuban righty Sandy Gaston, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (Twitter links). Two other top players, the Mesa brothers, landed with the Marlins today. The Orioles had been seen as a chief competitor for these and other top young players who are eligible to sign rather than entering the draft. To date, though, the club has largely kept its war chest intact. Frisaro says it’s believed that it would cost Tampa Bay around $2MM to secure the amateur.
  • The lack of a suitable defensive position has long been the primary concern with Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes, GM Al Avila says the current plan remains to keep Castellanos in right field, where he has “made some strides.” As Fenech writes, though, there are some good practical reasons to consider utilizing Castellanos at first base, where he’d be less of a concern defensively and wouldn’t clog up a spot in the outfield for other other players the club would like to get a look at. Of course, the first base position is spoken for, at least for part of the time, by Miguel Cabrera.
  • Despite a disappointing end to the 2018 season, the Astros enter the winter with a great deal of confidence in their existing roster, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. Unsurprisingly, though, GM Jeff Luhnow identified starting pitching and catching as two areas that will need to be addressed. In other Astros news, the organization is expected to retain all of skipper A.J. Hinch’s coaches, Luhnow tells Rome (via Twitter). All are already under contract, per the GM. Of course, bench coach Joe Espada has received strong interest from other organizations as a managerial candidate, so it’s still possible the club will need to make a new hire.

Rockies Expect Seunghwan Oh To Remain In Colorado For 2019

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Recent comments from right-handed reliever Seunghwan Oh seemingly indicated he was contemplating a return to his native Korea for the 2019 season, despite being under contract with the Rockies after his option vested. The Colorado organization, though, anticipates that Oh will remain with the club, general manager Jeff Bridich tells reporters including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“Our understanding is that he has every intention of honoring his contract,” said Bridich. He explains that Oh’s camp informed him that the righty’s “comments to the Korean media were not specifically about 2019,” so much as a general preference to pitch again in the KBO before wrapping up his playing career.

Certainly, that news comes as a relief for the Rox, who stand to control Oh for a reasonable $2.5MM salary. The 36-year-old thrived both before and after a mid-season trade sent him to Colorado from the Blue Jays. He ended the season with a 2.63 ERA over 68 1/3 innings, with a healthy combination of 79 strikeouts and 17 walks.

Despite exhibiting a velocity loss of a full tick on his average fastball, Oh managed to post a strong 14.7% swinging-strike rate. He increased the usage of a fourth pitch (a curve) that he used at the expense of his somewhat diminished heater.

Obviously, it’s always a good thing to have a useful ballplayer under contract at a price that lags his value. And there’s little question that Oh would earn more in free agency were he to return to the open market this fall.

But the need is even more acute for a Rockies organization that has poured money into its bullpen without achieving the desired results. Since the 2015-16 winter, the club has signed Wade Davis ($52MM total guarantee), Jake McGee ($27MM), Bryan Shaw ($27MM), Mike Dunn ($19MM), Greg Holland ($7MM guarantee, $14MM ultimate salary owing to incentives), Jason Motte ($10MM), and Chad Qualls ($6MM).

Overall, there’s little question that the club has not received the output it hoped for from this group. Several players — Davis, McGee, Shaw, and Dunn — remain under contract. While a bounceback or two may still not be too much to ask for, it’s critical that the organization get some cost-efficient, quality pieces in the mix. That’s particularly true given that the organization is already sitting with nearly as much cash on the books (around $130MM with arbitration eligibles included at their projected value) as it did to start the 2018 season (a club record of about $136MM).

Giants Outright Five Players

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The Giants have outrighted five players off of their 40-man roster, the club announced and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to cover (Twitter links). The moves opened space for a handful of players to be moved back onto the roster from the 60-day DL.

Four of the players to be bumped — infielder Chase d’Arnaud, righty Casey Kelly, utilityman Kelby Tomlinson, and infielder Miguel Gomez — are now free agents. The former two had the right to reject an assignment, while the latter pair became eligible for minor-league free agency upon departing the MLB roster.

A fifth player, right-hander Tyler Herb, was also outrighted. In his case, though, he’ll remain in the San Francisco organization. He has been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento, which is where he spent most of the 2018 campaign.

Tomlinson, 28, had the lengthiest and most notable tenure with the Giants of the players outrighted today. He never quite matched his promising debut effort, however, ending his time in San Francisco with a .265/.331/.332 slash line over 687 plate appearances.

As for d’Arnaud, a light-hitting journeyman infielder, he’ll look for another opportunity to function as a depth piece. The 29-year-old Kelly, once a prospect of some note, allowed just eight earned runs in his 23 2/3 innings with the Giants but surrendered a 4.76 ERA over 24 Triple-A starts. Gomez has received scant MLB opportunity. He played mostly at the two highest levels of the minors in 2018, drawing just nine walks in 437 plate appearances while posting a .291/.304/.418 slash line.

D-Backs Announce Three-Year Deal With Eduardo Escobar

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The Diamondbacks have announced a new contract with infielder Eduardo Escobar, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported (Twitter links). It’s said to be a three-year, $21MM pact. Escobar is a client of DJ Rengifo Y Associates LLC.

This news represents a fascinating turn of events just before the official onset of free agency. The 29-year-old, who was picked up in a mid-season swap with the Twins, had been slated to reach the open market for the first time.

Opting to wait for free agency would surely have given Escobar a shot at a somewhat bigger payday. After all, the switch-hitter just wrapped up a career year in which he slashed .272/.334/.489 with 23 home runs while thriving defensively at third base. MLBTR has yet to release its free agent predictions, but had initially contemplated a contract of three years and $30MM.

That said, things don’t always work out as hoped on the open market. There are several strong competitors in the third base market, and teams that like Escobar’s versatility will also be intrigued by Marwin Gonzalez.

For Escobar, his broader history is rather less enticing than his 2018 output standing alone. Over the past five seasons, he carries a .261/.312/.433 slash — good for an exactly league-average 100 OPS+. And though he has played all over the diamond, including at shortstop, he hasn’t always graded as a stellar defender up the middle and so may not be seen as much of an option there as he ages.

Doing this deal now, then, avoids some risks for both parties. Clearly, both sides liked the fit after only a few months together. And it’s not hard to see how the contract can suit team and player moving forward.

Really, the most interesting element of this decision is what it means for the Arizona organization. With the offseason approaching, it had seemed quite likely that the club would embark upon a rebuilding effort. While it’s certainly still possible that he Snakes will look to shift some assets with the future in mind, promising Escobar three years certainly isn’t something that a team would do before a full-blown teardown.

With Escobar on hand, it’s also fair to wonder just what the D-Backs plan to do with some other infielders. Jake Lamb will be looking to bounce back from a miserable and injury-riddled campaign, but keeping him will mean ponying up a projected $4.7MM. It remains to be seen what the club will do with Lamb, as well as fellow infielders Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM projection) and Chris Owings ($3.6MM). Ketel Marte is already under contract on a five-year, $24MM extension.

Today’s move leaves the Diamondbacks with plenty of options, particularly given Escobar’s versatility, so it’s hardly a fully committing decision. It also means that the organization has over $130MM in estimated payroll on the books, including its robust slate of arb-eligible players. This year, the Snakes opened with a club-record $131.5MM tab.

If the signing hints that the D-Backs will not blow things up entirely, it remains hard to imagine that the club will fully press down on the gas pedal. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored, the organization could attempt to shave some salary obligations, hold onto its pre-MLB talent base, and try to remain as competitive as possible by overseeing a value-oriented winter. Getting Escobar at an appealing rate certainly seems to fit that mold, though the club’s precise course from this point forward remains to be seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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