AL Notes: Mariners, Rondon, Orioles, Hazen
New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto says that he believes the organization can win by building around its core, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. “Whether it be through the primary market of free-agent and trade acquisition or the secondary market of waivers, smaller trade [and] Minor League deals, you can come up with a very creative roster balance that will allow this team to contend now,” Dipoto said. “I believe that the quality of the core group screams for it. You’ve got too many good players to believe that you’re far away from winning.” Adding depth and athleticism while improving the pen are some of Dipoto’s priorities heading into the winter.
Here are some more notes out of the American League:
- The Tigers haven’t given up on powerful 24-year-old Bruce Rondon despite the fact that he hasn’t yet evolved into a reliable MLB presence, James Schmehl of MLive.com writes. We’ve heard this news item before, of course, but Schmehl provides a host of quotes from Detroit GM Al Avila which are interesting not only in regard to Rondon, but more generally. “I’ve had many conversations with him. He’s trying to figure it out,” Avila said. “You have to understand that we all come from different backgrounds, and we all have different experiences, and everybody learns at a different pace.” The veteran baseball man continued: “If he returns a mature young man, he’s got all the ability in the world. The ability’s there. It’s a matter of all the other intangibles that every other player at some point goes through. Some easier than others.”
- The Orioles‘ relief corps could be in for a makeover this winter, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Righty Dylan Bundy is perhaps the most intriguing possible addition. His progression is still hardly a sure thing, but the early returns are promising. The two surest things, suggests Kubatko, are closer Zach Britton and righty Brad Brach. Youngster Mychal Givens also seems likely to earn a spot. Otherwise, there are plenty of options but little in the way of certainty. At a minimum, says Kubatko, the club will be in the market for a lefty reliever.
- Just-promoted Red Sox GM Mike Hazen is humble and hard-working, the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes. And those attributes may just be the key to his success. The piece offers an interesting look at the 39-year-old executive and is well worth a read.
Poll: Should White Sox Pick Up Alexei Ramirez’s Option?
Option decisions are among the first important moves made by teams in the offseason. While many are fairly easy to call, there are plenty of borderline examples.
The White Sox face a tough decision regarding veteran shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Chicago can choose either to employ Ramirez for $10MM next year, or instead pay him a $1MM buyout and allow him to hit the free agent market. In other words, it will cost the team $9MM if it wants another year of Ramirez.
Looking just at last year, this is not a difficult decision for GM Rick Hahn. Ramirez slashed just .249/.285/.357, put up his worst-ever running mark (a rather stunning -5.0 BsR), and was viewed as a sub-par defender by both UZR (-6.4) and DRS (-6). Things ticked up in the second half, but the overall output wasn’t pretty.
Then again, Ramirez has for the most part been a model of consistency over his eight years with the club. He has made 4,999 plate appearances and played an average of 153 games per season over 2008-2015, providing a stabilizing roster presence. Ramirez hasn’t generally been spectacular, but has been an average or better overall regular in most of those seasons.
The 2014 season, in fact, was one of Ramirez’s best. While his defensive metrics dropped, he still rated well there in terms of UZR and continued to generate good ratings on the basepaths. And the light-hitting infielder posted his second-best career batting line, an unexciting but useful .273/.305/.408.
Even if you value the track record, Ramirez is 34 years old and was never an outstanding player. Reasonable-but-optimistic expectations would be for roughly league-average performance in 2016. There was a time where that kind of outlook would make this an easy buyout situation. But ten million bucks doesn’t buy what it used to in the game of baseball.
Ramirez wouldn’t top any teams’ priority lists if he hits free agency, but he’d still get paid. That’s due in large part to the lack of supply on the shortstop market. After Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera, clubs looking for a plug-and-play veteran will be choosing between Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins, who had every bit as rough a season and is even older.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes writes in his preview of the White Sox’ offseason, the $9MM that Chicago would need to commit to Ramirez is perhaps “only slightly above” his value in free agency. There are some teams that would love to have a potentially average performer to replace sub-par platoons, while others might want a veteran to help ease the transition of younger, long-term options. To an extent, the White Sox look to fit both situations: the idea of a year with Tyler Saladino isn’t too appealing for a club that hopes to win, but clogging the position wouldn’t maximize the value of top prospect Tim Anderson.
All said, the salary is probably close enough to market that the White Sox should pay it if they want Ramirez back. If nothing else, it may be tough to re-sign him after cutting ties, and the risk is limited on a one-year commitment.
The other options for finding production at shortstop are limited. But there are alternatives, and bringing back the incumbent could represent a slight overpay with a fairly low ceiling.
So, we’ll put it to a vote (app users click here):
Should The White Sox Pick Up Alexei Ramirez's Option?
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No 61% (2,263)
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Yes 39% (1,473)
Total votes: 3,736
Marlins Outright Five Players
Here are the day’s outright assignments:
- The Marlins have announced that five players were outrighted off of the 40-man roster. Preston Claiborne, Erik Cordier, Chris Narveson, Chris Reed, and Donovan Solano each lost their slots. With three 60-man DL placements, Miami says it has five open roster 40-man positions as things stand. Claiborne missed the entire season with a shoulder injury. Cordier, a 29-year-old righty, was strong at Triple-A. but allowed eight earned and posted a 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work in the majors. The 33-year-old Narveson marked his most extensive big league usage since 2011, but posted only a 4.45 ERA in 30 1/3 frames. Reed, meanwhile, made just two big league appearances after coming from the Dodgers in a minor mid-season swap. He scuffled at the Triple-A level in his first season of exclusive bullpen work. Solano is a 27-year-old utility infielder. He had seen extensive action in each of the three prior campaigns, but earned only 94 plate appearances this year. All told, he owns a .257/.307/.328 slash in his big league career.
MLBTR Mailbag: Indians, Phils, Giants, Pads, Tigers, Braves
Time for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. As always, apologies if we couldn’t get to your questions and thanks for sending them in!
Here are this week’s questions, with a reminder that you can submit questions for the mailbag at any time throughout the week via email (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com) …
With Cleveland unloading contracts of Swisher and Bourn, will they have the resources to go after the high-profile middle of the order bat that they desperately need? — Eric C.
They’ll have some increased flexibility, but they paid $15MM in that trade and also took on Chris Johnson‘s salary, so they’re not likely to add a significant amount of money. We took a look at their upcoming offseason last week and suggested that trades were the likelier route. Names like Marcell Ozuna and, more improbably, Todd Frazier, make plenty of sense in theory. Going the free-agent route, they’re not going to afford the Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes caliber players, but some under-the-radar adds like John Jaso, Mike Napoli or Justin Morneau could pay dividends.
On their current trajectory, the Phillies are looking at 2018 or 2019 (at the earliest) before they are back in contention. Given the tremendous drop in attendance over the last 3 years, do you think that ownership may attempt to hurry things along by plugging some of their larger holes (RF, LF, SP, bullpen) with high to midrange priced free agents starting this off-season? They certainly have the money to spend, and can’t be very happy with all the empty seats (and lost merchandise sales) at Citizens Bank Park. — Rod S.
It’s probably wise not to expect the Phils to be in the playoff hunt before 2018, but that may not end up being the case. Sure, the organization’s current “trajectory” is one of shedding obligations and adding young, unproven talent. But it won’t be long before a new GM will be looking to plug in MLB pieces that have current and future use, whether to speculate on upside or in the way that the Astros signed Scott Feldman and the Cubs inked Edwin Jackson in recent years.
In this case, an earlier turn back toward contention could make sense. Win-now moves obviously aren’t to be expected, but there’s no reason not to begin looking at quality big league additions with more than fill-in capacity in mind — so long as the club isn’t sacrificing its future flexibility or giving up young talent to do so. That wouldn’t necessarily be an attempt to “hurry things along” so much as to best leverage this particular team’s resources (i.e., its ample payroll space). Possible targets include players who have age and upside, whose market has failed to match their ability, or who offer high-risk/high-reward profiles.
Clearly the Giants must get at least one top of the rotation starter to pair with Madison Bumgarner. But who makes the most sense? And what other #2 or #3 starter might be available to also join the rotation given the Giants’ payroll? The assumption is that Jake Peavy and either Matt Cain or Chris Heston would fill out the #4 and #5 spots. — Peter L.
Adding two starters of that ability level — without breaking the bank, at least — is never easy. We’ve heard plenty about their interest in a reunion with Mike Leake, and he would presumably fit as the second type of arm that you mention. Presumably, the club could look at him as a solid mid-rotation piece who would eventually slot toward the back of the rotation as other pitchers age and depart the organization. That might not happen, of course, but we know the Giants like him.
So, would they need to add an even better pitcher, as well, to contend with the Dodgers? That’s not entirely clear, but GM Bobby Evans did say recently that he wants his club’s staff to surpass that of their rivals to the south. Leake won’t be cheap, though, so it might be too much to ask to add him and a guy like David Price or Zack Greinke. If you want two high-end arms, maybe they could look to get better value from Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann, given that both failed to maximize their market positions heading into the winter. Or, San Francisco could roll the dice on someone like Scott Kazmir (long-term health) or Jeff Samardzija (recent performance).
Do you think the Padres have a realistic chance of signing Ian Desmond and acquiring a big, left-handed power bat in order to make waves in the west? — Ryan D.
Sure, that could make sense. The team needs to add a shortstop of some kind and A.J. Preller (along with ownership) aren’t afraid to make bold moves. Desmond offers quite a bit of upside even after a rough season. He still won’t be cheap, of course, but he’s probably the only long-term shortstop available via free agency and ought to be affordable for San Diego. (That might not have been the case if he had returned to his 2012 levels of output.)
But wait, you want a lefty slugger, too? This market really has just one of those — Chris Davis — and it’s questionable whether the Friars can squeeze in both him and Desmond into their payroll. They were at about $108MM to start 2015, and have around $75MM promised already for each of the next two seasons — before accounting for arbitration raises and options. Your plan might have to involve a trade for a left-handed bat to be financially viable, but that then raises the concern of giving up yet more young talent.
What route do you think Al Avila will go. Will he go for the really expensive, name-oriented closer, a la Nathan, or maybe someone under the radar like Darren O’Day? — William S.
Avila said recently that he doesn’t see any ace closers on the market, and he’s right. O’Day is probably the best reliever available, with Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria among the others in that mix. So, no, a free agent signing of even a Joe Nathan-type does not seem terribly likely, and the club could look to add one or more quality set-up men instead. There could also be some buy-low arms with closing experience; a guy like Addison Reed might hold some appeal if he’s non-tendered.
Of course, two of the very best arms in all of baseball — Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel — could well be had. Detroit would have to at least start a conversation if either of those names hits the trade market.
I’m wondering what type of starting pitcher you think the Braves will go after? Do you think a Jordan Zimmermann is too much too soon? Is maybe Doug Fister more likely? — Tristan W.
It’s not too soon for Atlanta to pursue a guy like Zimmermann, in large part because next year’s free agent pitching market is nowhere near as deep as this one. To an extent, you need to get your shopping done early.
But I’m not sure that the Braves will see a need for that, this year or next. It’s more likely that the Braves look for value than chase a top-end player. Now, if Zimmermann or another excellent pitcher languishes due to excess supply, Atlanta could jump. After all, they’ve shown a predilection to act opportunistically. That being said, if the Braves decide to go after a guy and pay a market rate, it might be more likely to occur on the position player side.
Atlanta has compiled quite a few interesting arms, and may be content allowing them to develop while filling in with veterans of Fister’s ilk. But as the acquisition of Hector Olivera and the earlier signing of Nick Markakis show, the club realizes that it has more work to do in assembling a group of capable position players.
Predictions would be foolish, but there are actually a fair number of buy-low type candidates among position players on this year’s free agent market. Likewise, some teams are going to cash in on starting pitching, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Atlanta look to deepen its staff on the cheap while also opening more flexibility to pursue the creative trades that have become the organization’s calling card in recent years.
East Notes: Braves, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox
The Braves have pulled the trigger on a number of painful trades in recent months, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that some hurt more than others. It’s still an open question whether dealing the controllable Evan Gattis made sense, and the timing of Craig Kimbrel‘s departure was tough to bear for fans. But the swaps that still carry the most uncertainty in terms of their baseball wisdom, says O’Brien, are the two deadline deals. Parting with Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson for a relatively unexciting return left the club badly exposed down the stretch. And the risky swap that brought in Hector Olivera could end up looking really bad (or really good) in retrospect. But just-minted GM John Coppolella says that he likes the players that came over from the Mets quite a bit, and adds that the organization still believes Olivera delivers “really good value for what we think he will be.”
- Meanwhile, Mets skipper Terry Collins says that he sees the team’s acquisition of Uribe and Johnson as a key spark to the season, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. “I believe that was the trade that set things where we started to go,” Collins said. “They provided two professional bats in that lineup and [experience] in that clubhouse. All of a sudden guys are looking at their jobs saying, ‘Oh my gosh, I’ve got to step up here’, and they did. I think that to me is when we started turning things around.”
- The Yankees were not able to add that kind of impact at the deadline, as it turned out, but the club doesn’t regret its summer trade activity, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. Manager Joe Girardi said that he feels “the organization made the right decision not giving up … your top prospects, your blue-chip prospects just for a two-month rental.” As he noted, the team got big contributions from young players who might theoretically have been trade chips: in particular, first baseman Greg Bird, starter Luis Severino, and second baseman Rob Refsnyder. GM Brian Cashman made clear that he feels the same way. “No, I don’t have any regrets.”
- It remains to be seen how the Red Sox will attack the offseason under new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, but Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe explains that the club has plenty of trade chips if it opts to pursue that route. That creates a situation where we should expect the unexpected, in the estimation of the veteran scribe. He ticks through the trade value and status of many of the organization’s assets, focusing on those who reside on the 40-man.
Evans: Giants Still In Hunt For Eddy Julio Martinez
Despite multiple reports suggesting that free agent outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez had agreed to terms with the Cubs, Giants GM Bobby Evans indicated today that his team remains in the chase for the young Cuban. Evans made those comments in a podcast interview with Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News.
Martinez, of course, had initially been set to join the San Francisco organization — as Evans himself acknowledged — before that deal reportedly fell through. Reports suggested that Martinez was seeking a $3MM bonus, a $500K increase over what he had been said to be getting from the Giants. Just one day later, Martinez was said to have reached a contract with the Cubs at the higher amount.
“That’s probably going to be a great story here in the near future,” Evans said of the Martinez situation. He noted that he is still holding talks with the youngster’s agents at BHSC. When asked whether San Francisco still had a shot at landing Martinez, Evans responded: “I want to be careful not to be too presumptuous, but yeah, I think there’s still that chance.”
Needless to say, there’s an immense amount of uncertainty and a general lack of clarity regarding Martinez’s status. It remains unclear what kinds of motivations and factors are driving the unusual situation.
Angels Designate Jo-Jo Reyes
The Angels have designated lefty Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot was needed for the claim of outfielder Todd Cunningham.
Reyes returned to the big leagues this year for the Halos, but faced just one batter. That went well, at least: he recorded the out and managed to line himself up for a win in the process. Over his 150 innings at Triple-A, Reyes put up a 4.32 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
Qualifying Offer Value Set At $15.8MM
The 2015-16 free agent season’s qualifying offer value has been set at $15.8MM, according to a tweet from Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Journal. That represents an increase, of course, but the rise isn’t nearly as great as it has been in the past.
The QO system used a $13.3MM number in its first year, which increased to $14.1MM and then to $15.3MM last fall. The qualifying offer value is determined by averaging the 125 contracts leaguewide that have the highest average annual values.
Here’s a quick refresher on how the qualifying offer system works: Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.
There are plenty of other elements of the system, of course, and you can check out this old-but-good overview for more. For an understanding of why the qualifying offer matters so much, read this great explanation of why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.
Players traded in mid-season are not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. So, for example, the Royals can make a qualifying offer to Alex Gordon but cannot extend one to Johnny Cueto or Ben Zobrist.
And remember: we still have yet to see a player accept a qualifying offer. While several QO-declining players have seemingly experienced market impacts after being saddled with draft compensation, the opportunity to test the open market in search of a multi-year pact has thus far proved compelling.
Angels Claim Todd Cunningham
The Angels have claimed outfielder Todd Cunningham off waivers from the Braves, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. The move represents the first acquisition of the tenure of new GM Billy Eppler.
Cunningham is a 26-year-old switch-hitter who saw his first real taste of big league action this past season. Over 93 plate appearances, the former second-round pick slashed just .221/.280/.267. As poorly as he fared with the bat in that short sample, though, Cunningham impressed advanced defensive metrics. Playing mostly in left field, UZR rated him at +18.4 runs-per-150 innings and he racked up six Defensive Runs Saved.
Cunningham was Atlanta’s 23rd-rated prospect coming into the year in the estimation of Baseball America. He has spent most of his time in center field during his minor league career, but BA said — and the metrics suggest — that Cunningham is a plus defender in left. Offensively, he is known as a contact hitter with good speed. But Cunningham hit just .261/.325/.337 in 375 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
It’s possible that the out-of-options Cunningham could find himself back on the waiver wire soon, as MLB.com’s Aldez Gonzalez tweets that the Angels will try to “slip him [through] waivers.”
Brett Cecil Suffers “Pretty Significant” Calf Tear
Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said that left-handed reliever Brett Cecil suffered a “pretty significant” calf tear during today’s post-season action, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca tweets.
Cecil appeared to suffer the injury while participating in a run-down to record the third out of the eighth inning. While the team described the injury as calf tightness, an MRI apparently revealed the more significant issue.
It’s obviously too soon to know the prognosis, but Gibbons’ description did not seem optimistic in the short term. The 29-year-old would be a fairly significant loss for a Toronto club that needs to dig itself out of a huge hole in the American League Division Series.
Looking ahead, MLBTR’s arbitration projections like Cecil to take home a $3.4MM salary in his final season of eligibility. He was certainly worth that and more this year, as he recovered from an uneven start to finish with a 2.48 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over 54 1/3 innings.