Trade Market For First Basemen
As we continue to look at positional availability around the game, let’s check in at the first base position. Several clubs could conceivably stand to make an acquisition. For instance: In the NL Central, the Cardinals are likely without Matt Adams for the season, while the Pirates could look to upgrade over or find a strong platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez. The Nationals are still without Ryan Zimmerman and could probably stand to add a left-handed bat (though Clint Robinson has been solid). The Tigers could have a need Miguel Cabrera is out longer than expected. And the Angels are not only in need of some offensive firepower at the DH slot, but probably would not mind finding a bat capable of manning first to give Albert Pujols some time off of his feet.
Starters
Joey Votto (Reds), Carlos Santana (Indians), Adam Lind (Brewers), Ryan Howard (Phillies), Mike Napoli (Red Sox), Adam LaRoche (White Sox), Logan Morrison & Mark Trumbo (Mariners), Ike Davis (Athletics), Mitch Moreland (Rangers), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Michael Morse (Marlins), Justin Morneau (Rockies)
- Votto is hitting well, though not as well as he has in the past, and plays for a Cincinnati team that profiles as a seller. But there has been little indication that the 31-year-old will be made available, let alone that other clubs will be interested in taking on the $199MM remaining on his massive extension from 2016 on.
- If there’s a premium, controllable option that could be pried loose, it may be Santana. He continues to reach base at a healthy clip while maintaining an excellent 16.9% walk rate, but his power is down (.367 slugging percentage, .153 ISO) and the BABIP gods have been unkind. Santana is under team control through 2017 — with a meager $6MM salary this year, a $8.25MM hit in 2016, and a $12MM option ($1.2MM buyout) for the final season of his deal — giving Cleveland little impetus to move him absent a big-time offer.
- Perhaps the most appealing short-term first baseman on this year’s market, Lind has put up a big .296/.378/.521 slash with 15 long balls in the season’s first half, though he has marked platoon splits and is best suited as a righty-masher. He’s owed only the remainder of a $7.5MM salary in 2015, and can be controlled with a $8MM club option ($500K buyout) next year.
- Howard has been completely baffled against lefties, but still puts up big power numbers against right-handed pitching (.241/.285/.469). At this stage, he probably only makes sense as a part-time player. To move him, Philly will need to eat a huge portion of the approximately $12.5MM he’s owed the rest of the way this year — to say nothing of the $35MM still left on his deal down the line (including a $10MM buyout for 2017). Howard also has full no-trade protection now that he’s achieved ten-and-five rights.
- The 33-year-old Napoli is playing on a $16MM salary this year and has hit at about 20% below league average. Boston is probably not in a position to move him as things stand, but he could profile as an August trade piece depending upon how things shake out.
- LaRoche has not thrived since signing a two-year, $25MM deal with the White Sox over the offseason, but is still maintaining league-average production and offers a steady glove at first. His strikeout rate has jumped to 28.9%, but he’s bounced back before and would hold appeal for teams in need of a sturdy all-around option at first.
- Both Morrison and Trumbo have hit beneath the league average line this year, though they’ve shown more in the past. Seattle has already performed quite a bit of roster juggling this year to maintain a contender, and seems fully committed to 2015, but could conceivably move either or both if it continues to fall short of expectations.
- The 28-year-old Davis has been steadily average at the plate, even with limited exposure to same-handed pitching. He’s owed just $3.8MM this year and can be kept through arbitration for 2016, so he could be a low-cost/low-risk option if the A’s decide to sell.
- Moreland profiled quite a bit like Davis coming into the year, but has raked in 2015 — in large part due to a lofty 21.2% HR/FB rate and a .324 BABIP that is a good bit higher than his career marks. Likewise, he’s cheap ($2.95MM salary) and has one more year of arb control. Texas has a whole host of left-handed power bats, including fellow first baseman Prince Fielder and top prospect Joey Gallo, so could entertain offers in a bid to sell high.
- The Pirates are firmly in contention, unlike the teams that control the players listed above. But Alvarez has dropped off somewhat at the plate (.236/.305/.436 with 12 home runs) and has remained a major drag in the field since moving over from the hot corner. There’s another year of team control left, but Alvarez will get a raise on his 2015 salary of $5.75MM. It’s plausible to imagine Pittsburgh adding one of the players noted elsewhere in this post while shipping Alvarez out to an AL club in need of a DH.
- Morse and Morneau are more or less unmovable at present, as both are in the midst of extended DL stays. Morse will return soon, but will need to show some improvement after an awful start to the year. Morneau, unfortunately, has much more serious health issues, as he is once again shelved with worrisome concussion issues.
Backups/DH Candidates
Chris Carter (Astros), Billy Butler (Athletics), Nick Swisher (Indians), Garrett Jones (Yankees), Wilin Rosario (Rockies), Darin Ruf (Phillies), Tyler Moore (Nationals), Brett Wallace (Padres)
- The question, as always, with Carter is whether he can make enough contact for his prodigious power to outweigh his proclivity for strikeouts. It’s been no different this year, but his overall productivity has taken a step back with dips in his in-zone contact, line-drive and hard-contact rates, and BABIP. Houston has other options in the first base/DH arena — Evan Gattis and Jon Singleton, in particular — and the 28-year-old is already earning $4.18MM as a Super Two.
- Butler has not bounced back as the A’s hoped when they surprisingly promised him $30MM over three years. It’s unclear whether Oakland or any of the other teams in the league have much appetite for a deal, but he can’t be ruled out as a trade piece.
- Swisher continues to decline at the plate, with both declining walk and power numbers, and has struggled with a knee issue. That makes him an unlikely deadline mover, but a rebound might let the Indians offload a small piece of his salary (about $7.5MM more this year, plus $15MM for 2016) in an August deal.
- Jones, 34, has a well-established track record of fairly solid production against right-handed pitching. It’s certainly possible that he could find himself the odd man out on a Yankees club that has multiple DH candidates and is always a threat to make an unexpected splash at the deadline.
- Though Rosario is young, powerful, and affordable ($2.8MM this year with two more seasons of arb control), much of his value has dissipated with a move away from the catching position. His numbers are obviously inflated by playing at Coors Field, but he could make sense for a team in search of affordable power (and/or sees some hope in eventually plugging him back behind the dish).
- Ruf, Moore, and Wallace have all shown some promise at times, but have not done much at the MLB level this season and are limited as marginal corner outfielders who are probably best suited at first base or DH. There’s not a lot of value here, of course, but it’s not difficult to imagine any of the three changing hands (or hitting the waiver wire) if they lose their roster spots or a need arises elsewhere.
Currently in the Minors
Allen Craig (Red Sox), Jesus Montero (Mariners), Adam Duvall (Giants), Cody Decker (Padres), Brandon Allen (Mets), Nick Evans (Diamondbacks), Matt Hague (Blue Jays), Mike Hessman (Tigers)
It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on the massively disappointing Craig, who lost his 40-man spot earlier in the year. He’s continued to lack power during a 208-plate appearance run at Triple-A, but does own a generally productive .260/.375/.353 line. The Red Sox would surely consider a deal, if any other teams see enough upside to give value in return. Montero has hit like the top prospect he once was, but he’s been plying his trade at Triple-A all year (though he just earned a promotion). It’s unclear whether Seattle sees much of a future for him in the organization, but his value is held down by his well-documented off-field issues, to say nothing of a lack of big league production when he’s had the chance. Duvall, 26, has shown plenty of power in the minors, but is limited defensively and struggled in a brief first taste of the big leagues last year. The other players listed all have spent at least some time in the majors (excepting the 28-year-old Decker) and are hitting well at Triple-A, but profile as fill-in pieces at present.
Dodgers Claim Preston Guilmet, Designate Chris Reed
2:17pm: Los Angeles has announced that it designated lefty Chris Reed for assignment to create 40-man space for Guilmet.
Reed, 25, came into the year rated the organization’s 10th-best prospect, per Baseball America, which said he could develop into a back-end starter or late-inning relief option. The 2011 first-rounder has had some uneven results in recent seasons, and was shifted to a pen role this year. Thus far in 2015, Reed owns a 5.97 ERA over 34 2/3 frames in the upper minors, with more walks (5.7 BB/9) than strikeouts (5.5 K/9).
12:27pm: The Dodgers have claimed righty Preston Guilmet off waivers from the Rays, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. His roster spot had been needed in Tampa Bay for the activation of John Jaso.
Los Angeles has made a notable habit of bringing in a steady stream of relief arms, and Guilmet now joins the flow. The 27-year-old only tossed 5 1/3 big league innings this season, but has spent at least some time in the majors over each of the last three years. While he hasn’t found much success in just 21 innings at the game’s highest level, he does own a promising 2.47 ERA, with 9.8 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, in his Triple-A career.
Braves To Sign Vin Mazzaro To Minors Deal
The Braves have inked righty Vin Mazzaro to a minor-league deal, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on Twitter. He’ll head to Triple-A upon joining the Atlanta organization.
Mazzaro, 28, threw 12 frames earlier in the year for the Marlins, allowing five earned runs. Though that was good for a solid 3.75 ERA, he allowed 15 hits and six walks while retiring just six batters via strikeout. After being designated and outrighted by Miami, Mazzaro elected free agency.
Over parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, Mazzaro owns a 4.66 ERA while averaging 5.5 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. His best season came in 2013 with the Pirates, when he put up 73 2/3 frames of 2.81 ERA pitching.
Cubs Designate Donn Roach
The Cubs have designated righty Donn Roach for assignment, the club announced (via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, on Twitter). His 40-man spot was needed for the activation of Mike Olt from the DL. Olt was optioned to Triple-A.
Roach, 25, gave up four earned runs in a 3 1/3 inning appearance at the major league level. He has thrown 89 innings with a healthy 2.33 ERA at the Triple-A level on the year, striking out 3.3 and walking 1.6 batters per nine in the process.
Draft Signings: Rhett Wiseman, Miles Gordon
Here are the day’s notable draft signings, with slot values via Baseball America:
- The Nationals have signed third-rounder Rhett Wiseman with an at-slot bonus of $554.1K, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports on Twitter. An outfielder from Vanderbilt, Wiseman profiles as a quality all-around ballplayer rather than bringing any superior tools to the table. Baseball America rated Wiseman as the 88th overall draft-eligible player, his only top-100 ranking.
- Reds fourth-rounder Miles Gordon has signed with the club, Callis recently tweeted. The outfielder will receive a $475K bonus that lands $18,300 shy of the slot value for the 115th pick, Devan Fink tweets. The speedy Canadian product rated within BA’s top 200, based upon his athleticism and reasonably high ceiling. He had been slated to attend the University of San Francisco.
Mets, Brewers Have Recently Discussed Ramirez, Segura
The Mets and Brewers have recently had trade talks in which both third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura were discussed, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
It is unclear from the report how advanced discussions are, but certainly it does not sound as if any moves are imminent. Morosi tweeted in early June that the two sides had discussed position players, but this report appears to cover more recent exchanges.
New York is obviously in need of help on the left side of its infield. Third baseman David Wright remains a complete question mark for the rest of the year, while the club has moved Opening Day shortstop Wilmer Flores off of the position. In that regard, both Ramirez and Segura make some amount of sense. But the two players are obviously quite different sorts of trade targets, and it’s far from certain that they would represent much of an improvement.
Ramirez, 37, is a fairly expensive veteran ($14MM this year) at the tail end of his career. He’s had a rough first half at the plate, but has turned things around somewhat more recently. New York would obviously hope that he returns to hitting near his well-above-average career norms, but it’s hard to know how much he’ll contribute the rest of the way. It is also unclear what kind of alignment the Mets would utilize if they installed Ramirez at third. Presumably, Daniel Murphy would bounce over to second and Flores would slide back to short.
Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Segura comes with three more seasons of club control, all through arbitration. An approximately average shortstop, according to Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Segura has yet to repeat his stellar 2013 campaign at the plate. He has shown some upside and remains young enough to dream on somewhat. But with Milwaukee surely putting a steep price tag on Segura, it it is particularly hard to ignore his .253/.292/.332 slash since the start of 2014.
International Notes: July 2 Pools, 2016-17 Market, Cuba
In case you missed the recent action, be sure to catch up on the major July 2 signings. In the midst of teams agreeing to deals with young talent, they were also swapping quite a bit of bonus spending pools amongst themselves. Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an exceedingly useful chart showing the aggregate results (as of this morning) of all those exchanges.
- Now that the dust has largely settled, Baseball America’s Ben Badler breaks down at the clubs that have exceeded their total allotment. By Badler’s reckoning, fully one-third of the league will be restricted from spending more than $300K in next year’s July 2 market, with the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays joining the five teams that are set to serve the second year of their bans. (Toronto will only face one season of limitations, as their spending stands.) Badler also explains how all the bonus pool deals were put to use by the teams making them.
- In the same piece, Badler takes a stab at predicting which clubs are planning to blow their budgets next year. He says that the Braves “seem determined” to make a big splash, while the industry chatter is that they could be joined by the Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Padres.
- MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez looks at the challenges to Cuban baseball posed by changing diplomatic tides. The stream of ballplayers heading for major league organizations has obviously hurt Cuba’s domestic league and national team, as Sanchez explains.
- If you’re still confused by the way the international market works, check out this solid primer from Jonah Keri of Grantland. He uses a Q&A format to help simplify the often baffling series of rules, strategies, and factors weighing on this segment of the baseball transactional world.
Marlins Taking Offers On Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Others
The Marlins are telling teams that they are prepared to field offers for a variety of short-term assets, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Specifically, Miami is prepared to find deals for pitchers Mat Latos, Dan Haren, and Brad Hand as well as utilityman Jeff Baker.
Each of the players listed above, with the exception of Hand, is set to hit the open market after the season. With the Marlins sitting behind every team in baseball except for the woeful Phillies, Spencer says the organization has “reached the jumping-off point” for acting as a seller.
Latos and Haren obviously have the most potential appeal of the players listed. The starters have had rather different seasons thus far, Latos underperforming generally promising peripherals (4.90 ERA, 3.84 SIERA) and Haren doing just the opposite (3.34 ERA, 4.11 SIERA). The 27-year-old Latos is said to have shown a promising velocity uptick in recent starts, though he’s owed the balance of a $9.4 salary this year and has an unsettling injury history. Haren, 34, continues to see his average fastball drop towards the mid-80s and has benefited from a low BABIP and high strand rate, but he still doesn’t walk anyone and the Dodgers are on the hook for all of his salary.
While Miami might hope to achieve some real value for those pitchers, it is not clear that there’s much to get back for Hand or Baker. Working mostly as a reliever, the out-of-options Hand has scuffled to a 5.80 ERA over 40 1/3 innings, though he has suffered from the exact opposite BABIP/LOB rates that have aided Haren. As for Baker, the 34-year-old rates at or below replacement level for the last several years. He’s not very highly regarded for his glove, and is mostly useful against lefties, but has not really even hit them all that well this year.
One other player that Spencer notes could be moved is former closer Steve Cishek. He’s been much better since returning to the big leagues, but still looks like a non-tender candidate after the season and is hardly the most certain relief asset a contender could find on the market. Cishek is playing on a $6.65MM salary this year, so Miami will likely need to pay a good chunk of that to find a taker.
Neftali Feliz Elects Free Agency
9:48pm: Feliz has elected free agency, Cotillo tweets. There will obviously be interest in his services, particularly as he has maintained his mid-90s velocity, though it remains to be seen whether Feliz will receive any immediate opportunities at the major league level.
1:39pm: Rangers righty Neftali Feliz has cleared outright waivers, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Feliz was designated for assignment last Friday.
The 27-year-old Feliz is playing on a $4.13MM arbitration deal this year and remains controllable for a final year in 2016. That obligation, combined with the sub-par performances that led to the DFA, likely ensured that he would not be claimed.
Because Feliz has topped five years of service at this point, after entering the year with 4.151 to his credit, he can choose to elect free agency without giving up his remaining salary. Per the report, Feliz is still deciding whether or not to take an assignment with Texas.
One one of the game’s more exciting young pen arms, Feliz has scuffled this season to a 5.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. Though he’s had much better results in recent seasons, it has been some time since Feliz rated well in the eyes of ERA estimators. He has not dipped below the 4.00 mark by measure of SIERA since the 2011 season, after which the Rangers unsuccessfully sought to move him into the rotation.
[RELATED: Rangers To Sign Cuban Free Agent Andy Ibanez]
Phillies Sign Jhailyn Ortiz
JULY 9: The Phillies have officially announced the signing. They also announced the singings of Venezuelan catcher Rafael Marchan and Dominican infielder Kuedy Bocio and lefty Manuel Silva. As Baseball America’s Ben Badler notes (on Twitter), Ortiz’s bonus is actually $4MM, which will help the Phillies to stay within their international bonus pool, which now stands at $5.28MM.
JULY 2: The Phillies have an agreement with Dominican first base prospect Jhailyn Ortiz, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports on Twitter. Agreement is still being “finalized,” per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, who tweets that the bonus is for an estimated $4.2MM.
Ortiz ranked sixth on Sanchez’s list of top international prospects, with Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel ranking him 14th and Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranking him 18th. Already listed at 6’2″ and 260 pounds, raw power is Ortiz’s best tool. He’s currently a left fielder, but most expect him to move to first base. Ortiz as the type of power “that does not come around very often,” per Sanchez. McDaniel gives Ortiz 70-grade raw power and notes that he’s surprisingly fleet of foot at the time being, though he figures to eventually slow down some. Badler notes (subscription required and recommended) that Ortiz showed a lot of swing-and-miss at events in February and March, leading to some concerns among scouts. There’s a lot of risk, per Badler, but there’s 25-plus homer upside if Ortiz can make similar adjustments to the ones Nomar Mazara made after signing with the Rangers.