Royals Will Attempt To Re-Sign James Shields
The Royals will make an effort to bring back top starter James Shields through free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Shields, 32, has given Kansas City 455 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball over the last two regular seasons, and is still pitching for the team in October.
While the club’s run to the ALCS has made that a return a more plausible scenario, Heyman says that the starting point for the decision came around the trade deadline. At that point in the middle of the summer, the club informed Shields’s agent, Page Odle, that it would be in touch after the season — a sign which seemingly indicated that a run at Shields was at least a possibility.
As I wrote back in March, landing Shields figures to be quite an expensive proposition, but perhaps will not be prohibitive even for the small-budget Royals. If past comps are any indication, even adjusted for inflation, Shields may not be able to exceed nine figures (if he gets five years at all) unless a true bidding war emerges. That could bode well for Kansas City’s chances.
Also helping the Royals’ cause is the qualifying offer that the team will make and Shields will surely decline. While he is an expensive enough player that the impact may not be too substantial, other clubs will need to weigh the cost of giving up a draft choice to sign him. (Of course, as a practical matter, so will Kansas City.)
As Heyman notes, the substantial revenue boost that the club should see from its postseason run will certainly play a role in determining whether the payroll space can be found for Shields. Not only will the team benefit from a playoff gate, merchandise sales, and the like, but should see increases in future streams through mechanisms such as season ticket sales.
All that being said, Shields will have plenty of suitors to choose from. After all, he is attractive to plenty of other clubs for largely the same reason he is to the Royals: in theory, he could represent a more achievable, less-risky investment on a shorter/smaller deal than other top free agent starters Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. Of course, if that kind of reasoning attracts enough bidders, it could drive Shields’s price tag up significantly.
Poll: Aramis Ramirez’s Next Contract
In his recent free agent profile of Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained that a variety of strategic moves could have significant bearing on both where he ends up and what kind of contract he might play under in 2015 and, potentially, beyond. As Tim explains, the veteran still holds plenty of appeal both in Milwaukee and the rest of the league, especially for clubs that prefer a shorter-term obligation from a consistently productive player. And the way things shake out with Ramirez could have widespread implications for player movement elsewhere.
So, let’s look at the decision tree that will have such an important role in determining Ramirez’s future. First, there is a $14MM mutual option ($4MM buyout) to consider. If Milwaukee decides it’s just too much money and pays the buyout, Ramirez would enter the market free and clear. If the club exercises its end, Ramirez could either take that payday or release that bird in hand and try the market.
In the latter scenario, the Brewers could still make him a qualifying offer, which would present another binary decision for Ramirez. Declining the QO, of course, would saddle him with draft compensation in free agency. If he goes that route, a new destination is possible, though, as we’ve seen in recent years, some players that test the market after declining a qualifying offer return to their prior teams.
Oh, and there’s one more possibility: Ramirez and the Brewers could essentially bypass this series of decisions entirely by agreeing to a multi-year extension at the outset (or at any point along the way).
This kind of situation is more or less what we live for here at MLBTR. Tim has already gone on record with his expectations, and it’s time that our readers did the same. (I won’t ask you to try to decide what Ramirez would do if he reaches free agency.)
How Will Aramis Ramirez's Offseason Turn Out?
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Ramirez and Brewers agree to extension 25% (1,291)
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Both sides exercise mutual option 21% (1,083)
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Ramirez declines qualifying offer and becomes free agent with draft compensation attached 19% (954)
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Brewers decline mutual option and pay buyout; Ramirez becomes free agent 13% (667)
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Ramirez accepts qualifying offer 11% (582)
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Ramirez declines mutual option and foregoes buyout; becomes free agent when Brewers do not make qualifying offer 10% (501)
Total votes: 5,078
Astros Payroll Could Rise By $20MM
Astros owner Jim Crane says that the club’s payroll could increase by about $20MM next year, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. Increased payroll availability does not mean that the team will use that cash, Crane cautioned, though he sounded willing to spend if it makes baseball sense.
“I think somewhere around [$20MM],” said Crane. “We’re not going to spend it to spend it. We’re going to try to spend it effectively and you know if we need to stretch a little, we’ll stretch a little. If there’s not a good reason to do that, we won’t do that. But you know we’ll continue to move up.”
Houston started 2014 with about $50MM in payroll on the books, meaning that the team could move into the $70MM range next year. The club has less than $18MM guaranteed heading into the offseason, but will need to pay arbitration raises to several players, including Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro, and Chris Carter.
Crane added that the club’s television rights fee situation will have a major role in setting future spending. “A couple of years ago we only got paid half of our rights fees,” he explained. “This year we didn’t get paid anything and this year hopefully we go back and get something paid for our coverage and it’ll have a big impact on what we’ll be able to spend on the team.” Specifically, Crane indicated that a nine-figure budget could be in the cards depending upon how the TV situation shakes out.
In terms of where that money might be allocated, Crane said that GM Jeff Luhnow would look to “add some more cornerstones.” As the team continues to work to add talent to its developing young core, Crane indicated that it might be expected to sign two or three major league free agents this year.
Bridich Named Rockies GM; O’Dowd, Geivett Resign
The Rockies have announced an unexpected front office shakeup, but will apparently not be making any upper-level additions from outside the organization for the time being. General manager Dan O’Dowd and senior VP of major league operations Bill Geivett — long the team’s brain trust — have resigned from their posts, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported on Twitter.
In their place, Jeff Bridich has been promoted to the general manager seat after previously serving as senior director of player development, as initially reported by MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter). While a young, fresh voice at the highest tier of baseball operations offers the hope of jumpstarting an idling franchise, it remains to be seen whether new operating philosophies and improved results will follow.
Colorado now becomes the third NL West organization in recent months to find a new GM, though both of their division rivals underwent broad external searches to find their new leadership. The Padres replaced Josh Byrnes with former Rangers executive A.J. Preller, while the Diamondbacks displaced Kevin Towers in favor of player agent Dave Stewart.
O’Dowd had been ensconced atop Colorado’s baseball decisionmaking structure since the fall of 1999, when he was hired as the club’s general manager. Many of the team’s highs and lows have come under his watch. The failed signings of Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton were early mistakes, but O’Dowd put together the talent that led the Rockies to deep postseason runs in 2007 and 2009. Ultimately, though, the club posted winning seasons in only four out of fifteen seasons under O’Dowd.
That less-than-inspiring track record provided the impetus for a front office restructuring in 2012. Though O’Dowd retain his general manager title and position atop the authority structure, he ceded some authority to Geivett, who had joined the Rockies in 2000. As his title reflects, Geivett was placed in charge of running the club at the major league level. Indeed, he made his office in a room adjoining the clubhouse, a situation which seemingly led to some tension. Though it is somewhat difficult to know where to assign credit and blame, the club had a hit-or-miss record on recent trades and signings. The Justin Morneau deal, for example, has already been a clear win, while the Boone Logan signing looks worse now than it did when inked.
Ultimately, the move represents a shift from a recent report from Harding (and many others before it) that made significant change seem unlikely. Both Geivett and O’Dowd reported to owner Dick Monfort, who has an extremely active role in the organization, which operates without a president. Monfort did say over the summer that he held Geivett responsible for the team’s performance. But as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported recently, internal discord has arisen over (among other things) the level of Monfort’s involvement in baseball decisionmaking.
It remains to be seen what decisionmaking structure and processes the Rockies will employ with Bridich now in the GM seat. He becomes just the third general manager in the club’s history. His predecessor, O’Dowd, had been the fourth-longest-tenured GM in the game.
As Harding explains, the 37-year-old had been in charge of the club’s player development system since the fall of 2011 — a role that made him, in the words of Saunders (Twitter link), “O’Dowd’s right-hand man.” Per Harding, Bridich came to Colorado in 2004 as manager of minor league operations. He became senior director of baseball ops in 2006, a role that involved transactional and contractual matters including arbitration. Prior to joining the Rockies, Bridich had a stint in the commissioner’s office after graduating from Harvard, where he played baseball as an undergraduate. Click here for an interesting recent interview with Bridich, regarding his work in player development, from Brian VanderBeek of the Modesto Bee (h/t to Saunders).
Photo courtesy of Brian VanderBeek/The Modesto Bee.
Minor Moves: Arencibia, Kouzmanoff
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Catcher J.P. Arencibia and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff have elected free agency rather than accepting outright assignments with the Rangers, Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest reports on Twitter. The pair was set to reach free agency anyway, but will be eligible to test the market now rather than waiting until after the World Series.
Josh Beckett To Retire
Dodgers righty Josh Beckett said today that he will retire from the game, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. The 34-year-old was slated for surgery on his torn left hip labrum, but will not attempt to work back from the injury.
Beckett was having an excellent season before he was stricken with another significant injury. He owned a 2.88 ERA through 115 2/3 frames, striking out 8.3 and walking 3.0 batters per nine. Though his numbers were propped up somewhat by a .257 BABIP and 85.2% strand rate, Beckett’s stuff was good enough that he managed to record the first and only no-hitter of his career.
It has been a memorable career for Beckett, who won the 2003 World Series MVP with the Marlins at just 23 years of age. By that time, he had already established himself as one of the best young starters in baseball. But by the winter of 2005, he was headed to the Red Sox (along with Mike Lowell) in exchange for a package including future stars Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez.
Beckett had an up-and-down tenure in Boston. Over 2006-11, he averaged 185 innings a year with a 4.04 ERA and 8.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. But he mixed in three All-Star campaigns, including a 2007 effort (3.27 ERA over 204 2/3) in which he was the Cy Young runner-up.
Beckett ultimately signed two extensions with Boston: a three-year, $30MM deal that included a $12MM vesting option and a four-year, $68MM pact that ran through 2014. Of course, the latter contract did not end as might have been hoped at the time. After playing a central role in the public’s dissection of Boston’s 2011 meltdown, Beckett was off to a rough start in 2012 when his contract became part of the massive Red Sox-Dodgers mid-season trade.
Though he may have delivered more value back to Los Angeles than seemed likely at the time of that swap, Beckett continued to be inconsistent. He threw well down the stretch in 2012 before scuffling through an injury-plagued 2013.
Things ended on a high note, of course, and Beckett will leave the game having contributed 35.3 rWAR and 39.0 fWAR to his clubs. For that production, he earned over $116MM. MLBTR wishes Beckett the best of luck in whatever endeavors he chooses to pursue now that his playing days are over.
Minor Moves: O’Sullivan, Jackson, Paterson, Wilson, Bianchi
As outrights pick up pace across the league, here are the latest minor moves:
- After outrighting him yesterday, the Phillies have released righty Sean O’Sullivan, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. O’Sullivan was set to become a minor league free agent anyway, so this just moves up his appearance on the open market.
- After seeing three players fail to clear waivers today, the Diamondbacks did manage to get another trio through. Per the PCL transactions page, outfielder Brett Jackson, lefty Joe Paterson, and catcher Bobby Wilson have all cleared and been outrighted to Triple-A. Jackson, a 26-year-old former top prospect, had another disappointing season at Triple-A, posting a .208/.299/.350 line in 271 plate appearances. Paterson, 28, again posted solid numbers in Triple-A (2.95 ERA over 42 2/3 frames) but failed to return to the regular MLB pen role that he had in 2011. And Wilson, 31, saw his first MLB action since 2012 with the Angels, but spent most of his time putting together a .267/.324/.341 slash over 299 trips to the plate at Triple-A.
- Also clearing waivers and being outrighted was Jeff Bianchi of the Brewers. Bianchi, who turned 28 on Sunday, struggled in limited MLB action this year. The utility infielder owns a lifetime .534 OPS through 402 plate appearances in the bigs. Over three seasons at Triple-A, he has posted a more attractive .299/.349/.428 line.
Richards, Shoemaker, Castro, Furbush, And Morrison Change Agencies
Relativity Sports has added an even handful of new clients, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). In addition to Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker of the Angels, Relativity has taken on Jason Castro of the Astros along with Charlie Furbush and Logan Morrison of the Mariners as clients. Each of those players had been with Octagon, but it appears that they followed agent Fred Wray to his new agency.
Among this group of players, only Shoemaker has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He and fellow breakout Angels starter Richards (who will be entering his first arb year as a Super Two) could well become extension candidates if they maintain their form. Meanwhile, Castro could be a somewhat difficult-to-peg arbitration case, as he looks to improve on his $2.45MM salary after a rough year.
Morrison, too, could require some effort from his new firm. He managed to bridge a large gap in filing figures last year, settling on a $1.75MM deal. But Morrison’s future remains unclear after putting up a solid, if unspectacular, .262/.315/.420 slash over 365 plate appearances. He could be ready to go through another (relatively) high-stakes round of arbitration negotiations, find himself dealt to a new club, or even be set loose to find a new club on the open market.
Be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database for the most up-to-date information on player representation.
Angels Claim Alfredo Marte, Roger Kieschnick; Designate John Buck, Brennan Boesch
The Angels have claimed outfielders Alfredo Marte and Roger Kieschnick off waivers from the Diamondbacks, the club announced. In a corresponding move, the team has designated catcher John Buck and outfielder Brennan Boesch for assignment.
Marte and Kieschnick have each seen fairly minimal time at the MLB level over the last two years, and neither has been productive in those short samples. But the 25-year-old Marte is fresh off of a .319/.407/.519 campaign at the Triple-A level, his best line as a professional. And while Kieschnick, 27, was less impressive in his first season in the D’backs organization (.260/.317/.461), he put up two productive Triple-A campaigns in the Giants system in the years prior.
Meanwhile, Buck was slated to become a free agent after the season. He signed on with the Halos after losing his backup job with the Mariners, with whom he signed a one-year, $1MM deal before the season. On the year, Buck slashed a meager .225/.289/.281 in his 97 big league plate appearances. Boesch, who could have been controlled through arbitration, will also get a slight head start on free agency. After joining the Angels on a minor league deal, Boesch struggled in 79 plate appearances with the big club but did tune up the PCL with a .332/.381/.636 slash over 407 plate appearances.
Qualifying Offers To Be Worth $15.3MM This Offseason
Teams wishing to make one-year qualifying players to pending free agents will have to be willing to pay them $15.3MM, the Associated Press reports (via Sportsnet.ca; h/t to Ben Nicholson-Smith). That represents an 8.5% increase over least year’s $14.1MM price tag.
The qualifying offer value is arrived at by averaging the salaries of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. Teams may extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents-to-be within five days after the end of the World Series. Players have seven days to weigh the offer. When a player rejects the offer, his former team becomes eligible to receive an additional “sandwich” round pick in the next amateur draft, while a new signing team must forfeit their highest non-protected pick. (No draft pick movement occurs if a player re-signs with his original team.)
In order for a player to be eligible to receive a qualifying offer, the CBA states that he must have spent the entire regular season on that team’s roster. For example, Brandon McCarthy is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after beginning the season with the Diamondbacks and being traded to the Yankees. Click here for more details on how the qualifying offer system works.
Every player made a qualifying offer to date has declined it. In the 2012-13 offseason, the first year that the QO system was in effect, nine players were made a qualifying offer and seven ultimately signed with different clubs. Last year, thirteen players turned down qualifying offers and ten went to new clubs in free agency.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained before the 2013 season, avoiding the qualifying offer can have a major impact on a free agent’s earning capacity. That became all the more clear during the latest round of free agency, when both Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales declined qualifying offers but were unable to find multi-year offers to their liking. The pair of veterans ultimately waited months into the season before signing, settling for one-year deals before struggling badly over the rest of the year.

