Red Sox Preparing For Major Free Agent Spending
Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said today in an appearance on WEEI’s Dennis & Callahan (via WEEI.com’s Jerry Spar) that his club is prepared to spend a significant amount of money on the upcoming free agent market. “[W]e are determined to get back to being in first next year,” said Werner.
Citing the “extreme flexibility” that the club was able to achieve in the famous 2012 August blockbuster with the Dodgers, Werner said that the organization is prepared to open the pocketbook this winter. “I wouldn’t say that we have limitless money, but we’ve got a lot of money to spend and we’re determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team.”
Indeed, after entering this year with about $156MM in MLB payroll, about $20MM off of the team’s 2012 high water mark, Boston has just under $106MM committed for 2015 and does not have any high-dollar arbitration cases to account for. But the team’s true flexibility is all the more evident looking further into the future: it has annual guarantees of no more than about $37MM on the books past next year.
So how will the team look to allocate its future resources? In part, it seems, the organization may have added motivation to invest in established players to ensure a quality product. (Werner called this season “a nightmare,” and noted that late-season games are “just not a good experience for the fans.”) Boston went into this season hoping to make another World Series run on the back of repeat performances from veterans and steps forward for younger players. “I know it’s always difficult to break a few rookies into your lineup,” acknowledged Werner. “… But I think we probably put too much stock in the replacements that we expected to come out and perform.” Nevertheless, Werner said that he and the rest of the organization remains confident that youthful contributors like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts will play an important role in the immediate future.
Immediate priorities will, of course, be dictated in part by the team’s recent actions. Dealing away free agent-to-be Jon Lester, rather than extending him, created space at the top of the rotation but also brought in Yoenis Cespedes for at least one full season at Fenway. Likewise, Allen Craig provides a veteran bounceback candidate in the outfield. And the recent signing of Cuban free agent Rusney Castillo also adds to the crowded mix of outfield options.
That leaves the obvious area of immediate focus on pitching. “We know we have to add some front-line talent,” said Werner. “We spent some time over the last few weeks talking about exactly what we can do to improve. I think that our trades at the end of July attacked the fact that we had a lack of offense. … But we know we need some front-line pitching talent.” It is worth noting that, in addition to parting with veteran starters Lester and John Lackey, the club will also need to replace (or bring back) key relievers such as Koji Uehara and Andrew Miller (among others).
East Notes: Sanchez, Rays, Smyly, Lee, Mets Lawsuit
Highly-regarded Blue Jays prospect Aaron Sanchez is proving that his stuff plays at the MLB level, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. His upper-90s fastball is generating swings and misses along with plenty of groundballs, and he’s also found success with his curve. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Sanchez has shown that the two-pitch combo can make him a force out of the pen, but the next step will be for him to incorporate his change as he looks to establish himself as a big league starter in the future. Sanchez is currently rated the game’s 37th-best overall prospect by MLB.com.
Here’s more from the east:
- The Rays expect their payroll to drop below this season’s franchise record of over $80MM, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Overall spending is “clearly going to be lower,” said owner Stuart Sternberg. That is hardly surprising, especially given that the team will not be paying David Price a big arbitration raise and has Heath Bell coming off the books. On the other hand, it would seem to indicate that Tampa does not expect to add significant salary via free agency or trade, as the team will be paying raises to players like James Loney and Grant Balfour (whose free agent deals were backloaded) as well as arbitration-eligibles such as Matt Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee, Desmond Jennings, and the recently-acquired Drew Smyly.
- Since going to the Rays in the Price trade, Smyly has increased his strikeout rate and improved his effectiveness against righties by elevating his fastball, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports originally explored and Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs further explains with the aid of many interesting statistics and GIFs. As Sullivan writes — and as Fangraphs has been discussing more generally of late — there is an increasing movement among some teams (including Tampa) and some pitchers to pursue the use of high heat as batters have adjusted to lower pitching.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that he expects Cliff Lee to deliver significant on-field value next year, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Lee is on track in his rehab plan, which currently means continued rest. As Gelb notes, Lee’s situation will likely not begin to clarify until he begins throwing this fall and begins to ramp up for the spring.
- The Mets have issued a statement denying the allegations of former executive Leigh Castergine, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. “We have received and reviewed the complaint,” the statement reads. “The claims are without merit. Our organization maintains strong policies against any and all forms of discrimination.” In a rather scathing assessment, meanwhile, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues that MLB should investigate immediately and act firmly in the wake of Castergine’s troubling allegations. As Passan notes, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon — whose alleged statements and actions form the basis for much of the lawsuit — not only occupies a key position with the team, but also sits on the boards of MLB Enterprises and MLB Network.
Mets Notes: Payroll, Roster, Fences, Lawsuit
While the Mets look to have primed themselves for a potential run next year, the organization’s expectation is that payroll will remain in the low-to-mid-$80MM range, reports ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link). A major portion of that (just over $54MM) is already promised to veterans David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Niese. And several players — including Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee, and Lucas Duda — will be in line for sizeable salaries through arbitration. GM Sandy Alderson said recently that the team will “have some flexibility,” Olney says it seems likely that the front office will need to look for buy-low options to fill its various areas of need.
Here’s more from New York:
- The Mets face a fairly significant upcoming roster crunch, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Players like Wilmer Flores, Jenrry Mejia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Andrew Brown, and Cesar Puello will be out of options for the first time. And the 40-man will remain full heading into the fall since the team has only two free agents (Daisuke Matsuzaka and Bobby Abreu) and needs to accomodate returns from the 60-day DL (Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell). Creating roster space for new additions and Rule 5 protection will require some tough, early choices for New York.
- With no indication from the Mets that a large payroll expansion is coming, the club may hope for a production boost from a combination of internal improvements and shortened fences, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig. Though bringing in the fences again would obviously impact opponents as well — and has been in the works for some time — Carig notes that there could be some home-team benefits. In particular, reeling in a spacious right-centerfield might result in some additional home runs, given that several of the club’s best hitters thrive hitting to that alley. And if the team’s own rotation can reach its potential, the corresponding benefit to the opposition may not match the Mets’ own yield. For his part, Alderson emphasizes that the changes to dimension are designed solely to enhance the fan experience at Citi Field.
- As it looks to transition back into contention, the club is facing a potentially difficult and embarrassing legal situation, as Selim Algar of the New York Post reports. Former head of marketing and ticket sales Leigh Castergine — the organization’s first-ever female senior vice president, per the report — has sued the club and COO Jeff Wilpon (son of owner Fred Wilpon) for allegedly firing her based on moral opposition to her becoming pregnant without being married. The suit apparently includes numerous specific details that, if proven, could conceivably have important implications for the team’s front office structure.
AL East Notes: Rookies, Pedroia, Cabrera, Rodriguez
In a piece for Sports on Earth, MLB.com’s Jim Callis ranks the top dozen players from this year’s crop of rookies by their anticipated future production. In spite of his questionable elbow situation, Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees leads the way, with shortstop Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox occupying the second slot.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is “probably likely” to sit out the remainder of the year and could be headed for another hand procedure, manager John Farrell said today in an appearance on WEEI (Twitter link). News of the increasing difficulty with Pedroia’s left hand and wrist emerged last night, with MLB.com’s Quinn Roberts among those reporting that a surgical option was on the table. “Surgery is one of [the options],” said Pedroia. “I could rest or continue to play or surgery. There’s three things we could do. We’ll come up with a plan the best we can that’s best for the team.” It is incumbent upon the team to act decisively to resolve Pedroia’s impairments, writes WEEI.com’s Alex Speier, especially since he is already entering the tail end of typical peak years of production. The star 31-year-old is mired in his worst season at the plate since becoming a regular (.278/.337/.376). On the other hand, he is still an elite defensive player and has racked up over 4 wins above replacement. Pedroia is owed $97.5MM (some of it deferred) over the next seven seasons under the extension he signed just over a year ago.
- Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera once again presents quite an interesting free agent case, as Mike Petriello of Fangraphs explores. Heading into his age-30 season, Cabrera is very well-placed in the upcoming free agent market, and Petriello thinks that a three or four-year deal makes sense in spite of Cabrera’s baggage. Some clubs will be willing to forgive his previous PED issues, and Petriello notes that a qualifying offer may not be a major impediment if teams with a protected first-round pick — he suggests the Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Padres, and potentially the Reds and Mets — make a run at Cabrera. Ultimately, his value could settle somewhere in the range of three years and ~$40MM up to Curtis Granderson‘s four-year, $60MM deal.
- The Yankees are not far off from facing yet another round of questions with regard to embattled third baseman Alex Rodriguez, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Though simply cutting him loose surely has some appeal, given the uncertainty of his ability to perform (to say nothing of off-field considerations), Sherman notes that doing so would prevent any chance of recovering some portion of the remaining $61MM owed Rodriguez if his hip issues ultimately trigger an insurance payout. Sherman argues that the club should have Rodriguez report for training in October, ready to learn first base. The Yankees could then begin to see what he has left to offer, opening the possibility of using him on either side of the diamond and recouping what value there is left to be had from his ill-fated contract.
Yasmani Tomas Cleared By OFAC, Still Awaiting Free Agency
24-year-old outfielder Yasmani Tomas has been cleared to sign by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. Tomas, who is aiming to be the latest high-dollar Cuban ballplayer, still requires a grant of free agency from MLB before he can agree to a contract.
Ranking Tomas seventh among prospective free agents, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote recently that the intriguing talent could draw wide and varied interest around the game. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explained in reporting his defection, Tomas projects as a power-hitting corner outfielder with below-average speed. Though he may not be quite ready to appear immediately in an MLB lineup, the consensus seems to be that he is at least very nearly big league-ready.
Ultimately, Tomas offers the promise of a unique combination of power and age for a market in which both are treasured commodities. Given his age and experience, Tomas will not be subject to international spending limits, meaning that he will be a true free agent when he receives his designation from the league.
Two of Tomas’s countrymen — Rusney Castillo and Jose Abreu — recently landed deals guaranteeing better than $10MM a year over seven and six years, respectively, though both players were considered slightly more polished while also being older. Earlier Cuban ballplayer signings included younger, high-upside outfielders like Yasiel Puig (seven years, $42MM) and Jorge Soler (nine years, $30MM).
Tomas, of course, is a different player, with an overall profile that shares some attributes with each of those rough comparables. If nothing else, though, the steady rise in spending on Cuban emigres — related, in some part, to the remarkable MLB success of the above-listed and other Cuban players — shows that clubs are not hesitating to plunk down big dollars for international talent.
2015 Vesting Options Update
The state of next year’s free agent class will be impacted by whether or not players with vesting options in their contracts achieve the necessary playing time to trigger those conditional options. As we near the end of the season, here’s a rundown of these players and their progress toward triggering their options …
- Nick Punto, Athletics: Punto has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he spends fewer than 30 days on the disabled list, assistant GM David Forst told reporters at the time of the signing. Though Forst did add that there are other ways for Punto’s option to vest, the health route is no longer available. Punto was only activated yesterday — ten days into the September active roster expansion — after going on the DL on August 3rd. If the option doesn’t vest, the A’s have the choice of picking him up at $2.75MM or buying him out for $250K.
- Rickie Weeks, Brewers: Weeks has an $11.5MM option that won’t be vesting, as he would have needed to total 600 PA in 2014 or 1,200 PA in 2013-14 and finish the season healthy. He has just 255 PAs on the season, so he’ll fall well shy of that mark. Weeks will also fall shy of reaching 400 PAs, which would have entitled him to a $1MM buyout of his option.
- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: Rollins’ option vested earlier this year when he reached 1,100 plate appearances over 2013-14. (He has also made 600 trips to bat in 2014, an independent basis for triggering the provision.) That clause, however, also required that he not finish the year on the disabled list, and Rollins left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. Word is that Rollins should be able to return, but with just three weeks left even a minor setback could well end his season. Nevertheless, Philadelphia would need to go out of its way to place him on the DL at this point, with active rosters expanded. And, in any event, the option would still vest if a mutually agreed-upon doctor deemed Rollins ready to start the 2015 season.
- Dan Haren, Dodgers: Haren needs 180 innings to trigger a $10MM player option for the 2015 season. Heading into his scheduled outing this evening, he has already notched 162 frames. Haren should be in line for at least three more starts (including tonight’s) before the end of the month, and maybe another depending upon how the club approaches the last few games of the year. Having averaged 5.79 innings per start on the year, it will be incumbent on Haren to pitch his way to the option — especially in the midst of a playoff race and backed by a well-stocked bullpen.
- Mike Adams, Phillies: Adams’ $6MM club option for 2015 would have vested with 60 innings pitched in 2014, but he’s obviously not going to get there with just 17 2/3 innings in the tank. Adams has thrown just 42 2/3 innings in his season-and-a-half with the Phils, and it seems highly unlikely that the team will pick him up at $6MM given his injury troubles. He should, however, be an attractive buy-low candidate given his general success when on the field.
- Rafael Soriano, Nationals: Soriano’s $14MM club option vests with 120 games finished over 2013-14. While that always seemed a longshot, any realistic hope was snuffed out when Soriano lost his closing gig to Drew Storen, the man he replaced when he signed on with Washington. Whether or not Soriano makes it back into the 9th inning role over the next few weeks, he now sits at 104 games finished over the last two seasons, making it all but impossible for him to trigger the vesting provision. With the Nationals all but certain to decline their club option on Soriano, he should make for an interesting free agent to watch.
- Kyuji Fujikawa, Cubs: The Cubs hoped that Fujikawa, one of the best relievers in Japanese history, would help to fortify their bullpen when they signed him to a two-year, $9.5MM contract in the 2012-13 offseason. Instead, both player and team received a hefty dose of bad luck when Fujikawa needed Tommy John surgery after just 12 innings last season. He has a vesting option based on games finished, but the 33-year-old has made it back for only 10 1/3 innings in 2014 and surely won’t be crossing that (unreported) threshold.
- Sean Burnett, Angels: Burnett’s $4.5MM club option vests if he appears in a total of 110 games between 2013-14, but like Fujikawa, he’s been plagued by injury and has no chance of that happening. Burnett has appeared in just 16 games total over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. The Halos will certainly be paying the $500K buyout on his club option.
- Scott Downs, White Sox: Downs had a $4MM vesting option that would have vested with 55 appearances, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported in June (via Twitter). Though he appeared to be headed in that direction earlier in the year, the White Sox cut bait with Downs and his then-6.08 ERA. He owns a 3.55 mark over 12 2/3 innings with the Royals — who signed him to a separate, minor-league deal — and has now thrown in 53 games, but the vesting clause is now a moot point.
West Notes: Astros, Ziegler, Stewart, Towers
The defensive shift has drawn plenty of attention around the game, and a study from Steve Moyer of Inside Edge (written up for the Wall Street Journal) shows that it has, in fact, been effective overall. The most impactful efforts, according to the study, have come from the Astros, whose shifts have saved the club an estimated 44 hits on the year.
More from out west:
- That statistic serves as an interesting backdrop for the Astros‘ newly-launched managerial search, given that former skipper Bo Porter played a role in implementing the club’s analytically-driven shifts. GM Jeff Luhnow — who is ultimately responsible both for driving the team’s defensive approach and for hiring and firing Porter — says that the team is inclined to add a skipper with an established track record, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. “We want major league experience as manager or major league experience as the bench coach,” said Luhnow. At present, the team has yet to conduct interviews or even request for permission to do so (for outside candidates). The hiring may extend into the offseason, he said.
- Diamondbacks reliever Brad Ziegler has undergone microfracture surgery on his left knee, which is a more significant procedure than had been expected, as Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Nevertheless, the veteran set-up ace is expected to be ready for the spring. The out-of-contention D’backs drew some criticism for not dealing Ziegler at the trade deadline, as his remaining contract ($5MM in 2015 and a $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout) seemed a solid asset.
- As the Diamondbacks begin their GM search in earnest, candidate (and current agent) Dave Stewart has yet to decide whether he’ll take an interview, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports, though it certainly sounds as if he will. But the longtime big league hurler says that he is definitely intrigued by the possibility of taking the helm, especially given the chance to partner with Tony LaRussa. “I’m very, very interested in it,” he said. “I love the idea of having the opportunity to build and build a successful team, and by successful I mean building a team to win a championship.”
- Outgoing Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers seems to be seriously considering staying on in a senior scouting role, though he tells Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com (Twitter link) that he is waiting to see who will take over in his former role. “We have to be simpatico,” said Towers.
NL Notes: Stanton, Wright, Braun, Lester
The Marlins plan to offer Giancarlo Stanton a deal that would make him the highest-paid player in team history, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported back in August that Miami would try to lock up its 24-year-old star for the long term, though the team was not necessarily optimistic of reaching agreement. For his part, Stanton tells Nightengale that he is willing to hear offers, but still wants to see “some progression moving forward.” “It will be interesting to hear what they have to say when the time comes,” he said, “but right now, I’m not worrying about it. I mean, we’re still in this season. When this season is over, then we can start thinking about 2015.”
Here’s more from the National League:
- Mets third baseman David Wright will be shut down for the rest of the year but is not expected to require surgery on his left shoulder, Adam Rubin of ESPN.com reported (via Twitter) on in advance of a team announcement. The club says that Wright has experienced persistent inflammation in his left shoulder, which may go some way to explaining his uncharacteristically average .269/.324/.374 slash this year. The star 31-year-old is owed $107MM over 2015-2020.
- Ryan Braun of the Brewers has seen his ongoing thumb issues expand to become a broader problem with his right hand, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Though surgical options have been explored, it was determined that none seemed sure enough to warrant the risk. Since a hot start, Braun has seen his numbers dwindle and then fall off a cliff of late. He is still owed $12MM on an earlier extension next year before his five-year, $105MM pact kicks in starting in 2016.
- Left-handed starter Jon Lester makes sense as a free agent target for the Cubs, argues Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. He is young and sturdy enough to warrant a significant investment, says Rogers, though Chicago can also choose to forego an overpay given the number of solid arms that could be had on the open market in 2016.
AL East Notes: Hague, Morrow, Castillo, Orioles
The Blue Jays are set to place corner infielder Matt Hague on waivers, tweets MLBTR’s Zach Links. Hague, who just turned 29, was recently designated as part of Toronto’s roster-clearing for September call-ups.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Blue Jays righty Brandon Morrow has shown recently that his stuff can play up in a bullpen role, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. While his $10MM club option for next year is still unlikely to be exercised, the 30-year-old could revive his career by returning to the pen, where he spent some time previously. Of course, as Davidi notes, Morrow still may be intriguing enough as a starter that he could look for an opportunity to stay in that role, where he thrived in 2012 (2.96 ERA in 124 2/3 frames). Saying that he still hopes Toronto will exercise the option, Morrow said he will otherwise “see what offers come in” and choose “which option you feel like is your best opportunity.” Morrow emphasized that he still thinks he can bring more value as a starter.
- Recent Red Sox signee Rusney Castillo is now just one step removed from the majors, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. The big dollar Cuban free agent is expected to play in a playoff series for Triple-A Pawtucket and then debut with the big club sometime next week.
- Yesterday, I asked MLBTR’s readers to weigh in on the Orioles‘ slate of possible qualifying offer candidates. With over 12,000 votes recorded, outfielder/DH Nelson Cruz proved the most popular option as a potential recipient, followed by shortstop J.J. Hardy and outfielder Nick Markakis. It will be interesting to see how executive VP Dan Duquette handles the trio, especially with rising arbitration salaries for position players like Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Alejandro De Aza, and Steve Pearce. Given Cruz’s big season and Hardy’s consistent production, it would seem quite enticing for both to turn down a QO if it is made. Given their respective ages, however — Cruz recently turned 34, while Hardy just turned 32 — draft compensation could prove a significant hindrance to their markets.
Wily Mo Pena Seeks MLB Return For 2015
Slugger Wily Mo Pena is hoping to land an MLB contract for the 2015 season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Soon to turn 33, Pena — who last saw MLB action in 2011 — has received interest from at least three clubs to date.
Since leaving North American baseball behind before the 2012 season, Pena has become one of the better power hitters in Japan. After a strong performance in his first season, he struggled in limited action last year. But Pena has rebounded to post a .260/.360/.514 slash with 28 home runs over 472 plate appearances in 2014. More impressively, perhaps, he has brought his strikeout-to-walk ratio (98 K against 56 BB) down to career-best levels.
Pena was said to have had options for playing in the states over the offseason, but chose instead to join Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes. (His first two years in Japan were spent with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.) Despite his impressive power, Pena never firmly established himself as an everyday player at the MLB level. He has seen action in eight campaigns, swatting 84 long balls and slashing .250/.303/.445 across 1,845 turns at the plate.