It’s been a quiet day on the transactional front, so a poll seems in order. Looking ahead at free agency, one of the more interesting situations involves the Orioles’ crop of pending free agents. The club has several key pieces of the lineup set to reach the open market: Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz, and J.J. Hardy. But the question remains whether some or all will receive qualifying offers.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at Markakis as a possible free agent back in May, noting that the 30-year-old’s hot start could lead to a significant turnaround in value. While he has not maintained that pace, Markakis has put up a .278/.339/.387 slash that constitutes better-than league-average production. Defensive metrics are not in love with his glove, but credit him with improvements over recent seasons. Also aiding Markakis as he looks ahead to a new deal is the fact that the upcoming free agent market appears rather thin in the corner outfield, especially in younger options. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently suggested, the club could pay him a $2MM buyout on his $17.5MM mutual option but still make him the QO.
Cruz, meanwhile, has done nothing but rake since joining the O’s on a one-year, $8MM pact. That deal cost the club a compensation pick, but looks like a bargain in hindsight. Cruz leads the league with 39 long balls and has slashed a robust .262/.331/.532 triple-slash in 596 plate appearances. But looking forward, he is 34 years old and is a limited defensive player (though he has rated out as an approximately average corner outfielder in limited action this year). On the other hand, even if Baltimore would rather not pay Cruz $15MM next year, might the qualifying offer be worth it? Having missed his chance to cash in on a multi-year deal last year, Cruz could well be motivated to take another crack at a player’s market. And if he does take the offer, that seems an attractive-enough rate for a single season commitment.
Then there is Hardy, who is quite an interesting player in his own right. The shortstop continues to create immense value with the glove while delivering league-average offense. Though his power numbers have taken a big step back this year, Hardy has managed to compensate with a higher batting average and on-base percentage. (Though he has ridden a career-high .332 BABIP, Hardy has also raised his line-drive percentage this year.) All said, the 32-year-old is almost certainly the best shortstop on the upcoming market, if one views Hanley Ramirez as a third baseman at this point. Just look at these current season, three-year, and five-year comparisons to fellow soon-to-be free agents Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Stephen Drew. It still seems somewhat hard to imagine that Baltimore will let him reach the open market without restriction, especially given that the long-anticipated move of Manny Machado to shortstop could once again be delayed (and would, in any event, simply open a hole at the hot corner).
So, which players are likely to receive a qualifying offer from the O’s? (Select all that apply.)
Probably should add “none” as an option.
After what happened last season I think teams will be a little shy about extending the offer. Certainly, Drew, Morales, and Cruz would have all accepted if they knew how the off-season would turn out. Santana would have likely as well.
Gotta disagree with you. After what happened last season, teams would be crazy not to extend these offers to players they want to keep. One-year deals, even for too much money, are so nice for the teams. If the player performs, it was worth it. If he doesn’t, you cut bait after one year. It’s the players who will be thinking twice about turning the offers down, not the teams who will be thinking twice about extending them. And while I could see no good reason for Markakis to get one, Cruz will almost certainly get one, and Hardy probably should.
That’s exactly what the players would want, though. And with Morales, I think they knew he would decline it – he’s a Boras client. Santana got exactly the QO after toiling away in FA limbo for months, and Drew even scored a pro-rated portion of the QO despite his shortcomings and the lack of a need for him. Cruz obviously has outperformed the QO, even with the pick factored in, with his ~3 wins so far. Santana and Cruz have played well on their one-year deals and proved worth that investment. Drew and Morales were Boras clients and had no business declining in the first place. So on one hand you’re right: the lesson learned here would be for Boras clients to accept in spite of their agent’s advice unless they’re of the Ellsbury/Cano mold, since he overplays his hand.
Hard to say that Nelson was worth it. He’s been worth about $20M on a $14M deal. The average value for a pick at the end of the 1st round is approximately $10M in surplus value over their first 6 years (and this includes players that bust since it is an average).
All in all, the deal worked out about as well as anybody could have possibly imagined … and even then it’s probably going to shape up as a break-even deal from the club’s perspective (of course, that all changes if they win the WS).
Cruz signed for 8MM.
As the guy below me pointed out, Cruz signed a 1 year, 8 MM contract. And Cruz has been worth 20 MM in actual performance, with 20~ games left to go, and potential playoff performance as well. The Orioles clearly won this deal.
I disagree. There isn’t a ton of downside to it if you are the O’s. They have a pretty competitive team right now, so you aren’t completely against bringing everyone back for another run next year if you are the Front Office. But Cruz and Hardy are such mysteries in terms of what you can expect next year. When is Hardy’s age going to catch up with his defense? Is his power going to come back or was this year the new normal for him? With Cruz, can he perform at this level next year? If not, will playing in Camden still allow him to put up crazy numbers (he really hasn’t raked in such a hitter friendly ballpark like you would expect, so even if he comes back down to earth, you could almost see his numbers staying high next year in Camden).
The answer to all these questions could be yes or no, so if you are the O’s, it’s almost worth it to overpay for one year rather than get stuck in a longer contract.
Pretty sure Cruz has much better road splits than home splits this year so the theory of him only performing in hitter friendly ballparks last season has all but disappeared. Also, him staying healthy and hitting a career high in homers should help his case for at minimum a 3 year deal given how weak the free agent market for hitters is.
Look at what Granderson got for an abysmal 2013 season. One team will get desperate to improve their team and give Cruz a good deal.
Hardy at age 33 next year isn’t at an age where his defense would slip. Guys have won gold gloves at ages older than that. The bat though is another question. I’m inclined to think the power plateaus at average levels, but not reach his career highs, with his career median batting avg
The problem is Hardy has never been this great raw athlete that has a ton of range. Hardy gets by with a great feel for the game, and accurate arm, and hands like pillows. Those things aren’t going to matter as much when your range starts to go. So he’s 33, which is a time when you would expect range to start slipping. He doesn’t have a ton of range to begin with. And he has a history of battling injuries.
I could see him still providing you great defense at SS next year, but I could also see next year being a year where the defense starts to slip. Which is why a QO makes so much sense.
I beg to differ. Knowledge of the game, experience, and positioning. Those things are the only things that don’t disappear. Jeter’s raw range faded a while ago. And, Cal too saw his range degrade the second half of his career. There’s actually a very long list of strong defensive SS players who aged well. But even take the Os color commentator, Mike Bordick, who remained a pretty strong defensive artist until, I believe, age 40.
Yeah,I agree, I definitely should have. Structuring polls continues to be the biggest challenge of writing for MLBTR.
I don’t see why teams would be shy about it. Teams didn’t get burned by the QO process as much as the players did.
Teams aren’t trying to protect players’ interests. Having their name attched to draft picks hurt the players badly, while protecting the teams’ interests. Sure, it slowed down the market somewhat, but teams don’t care about that as long as they get their value.
They didn’t get burned at all this year. You are 100% correct. The market will correct though. All the guys listed above would have (I’m assuming) accepted the QO had they known how things would eventually play out.
With more teams willing to pay extra in exchange for a shorter contract players will be more inclined to accept the QO this year.
The issue is that in several cases teams offered because it was obvious the player would decline or the teams were very okay with the player accepting, and pretty sure they’d decline anyway. Morales and Drew were all but guaranteed to decline, and Texas/KC would’ve been okay with Cruz/Santana back but were fairly sure they’d decline it anyway.
Oh, I see what you’re saying.
You’re saying due to last year’s experience we might see a lot more players accept the QO. Therefore, teams who might just be offering QOs for the draft pick, might get burned. This is a very interesting point. It very well could happen.
That said, I think the calculus just gets tweaked. Like, say, maybe older players who are trying to get the last longterm contract of their careers (say, around 32-34 ish?) are safer bets to offer QOs. Guys like, say, Nelson Cruz.
I guess when you think about it, there’s still no real downside for a team of offering a QO to any player who is above-average or better. You’re either rewarded with an average 1-YR deal, draft pick. The only time it hurts is if you offer it to average or worse players.
I say QO for Cruz, but Hardy and especially Markakis avoid it. Hardy is questionable, but I don’t think Markakis even comes close to being worth 15 or 17 MM at this point. Orioles should just decline, pay the buyout and seek to re-sign him at a reduced rate, unless they have massive 2015 payroll space available I’m not aware of.
Cruz is a lock to get one. I would probably give one to Hardy. Markakis I would want to give one if I was the O’s only for the pick, but would probably be too scared that he would accept it to do it. He just isn’t an everyday RFer anymore, and they have too many difficult decisions coming up to invest that much into Markakis.
Yes to Cruz and Hardy, no to Markakis. Hardy definitely walks and one of Cruz and Markakis do.
If you make the QO’s you have to be willing to pay them. No to Markakis–too much money if he accepts. If he turns you down, you can still negotiate something (although he may have a hard time stomaching a reduction in AAV) Hardy I would pass on. If you want to retain him, negotiate. He’s not worth $15M, but might be worth $28-30 over three years. Cruz is tough, because a DH (other than Ortiz) probably isn’t worth $15M.
You’re underselling Hardy. He’s been about a 4 WAR almost every year for the O’s. Even if you believe he’s going to start declining, chances are he is worth more than 10 million a year over the next 3 years.
I’d say 3/35-40 is reasonable for Hardy, or something approaching 50 MM over 4 years.
about a 4 WAR almost every year?
In 4 seasons he has been a 4 war player once.
Looking him up on B-R, looks like he had a 4.1, 3.2, 3.9, and currently has a 3.7.
So yeah, that would be “about” a 4 WAR “almost” every year with the team. Only year he didn’t come close was 2012.
Hardy will get a big offer from the Bronx. There’s a lot of signals they’ll be chasing after Hardy if he reaches the market to replace Jeter. You’re really underselling Hardy, and underestimating how hard it is to find a good MLB SS. The market isn’t just thin. The free agent market has been thin for several years. Bonafide quality SSs just don’t come available much.
I said yes to Hardy and Cruz. Cruz is playing great this season and the Orioles would be foolish if they let him walk and get nothing in return for it. I said yes to Hardy because I feel like someone will pay him, I’m looking at the Yankees and they will get a pick in return. I feel like Cruz will decline the offer and sign something in the range of 4 years 48 million. Hardy will decline the offer and sign 4 years 40 million with the Yankees overpaying again.
“I feel like Cruz will decline the offer and sign something in the range of 4 years 48 million. ”
Something that all of us thought would happen last offseason. Same for Steven Drew (not 4 year/$48 but probably a 3 year deal somewhere).
Maybe it would be wise for Cruz to accept it now.
Cruz didn’t lead the league in homers last year.
He’s also a year older with declining defense. $16 mil/year isn’t chump change. I’m not saying he won’t get a QO (I voted he would) Just saying it would be wise to accept it.
He has played basically the same this year as he did last year. But now he is one year older.
He’s obviously way better this year, but who’s giving a long term contract to a 35 year old? This risk is too high, he’d best just accept the QO. I wonder if he had a handshake agreement with the O’s to sign for that cheap to guarantee no QO though.
He wasn’t a player that could stay healthy an entire season last year and the big question was if he could perform outside of the hitter friendly Texas ballpark, his splits actually favor him outside of Camden this year if you can believe it.
PEDs not injury. Wasn’t really a question when you are going to a ballpark like Camden, it’s not exactly spacious. He has upped his slugging like 20 points, which is pretty minimal. Aside from that he is pretty much the same. Seeing as he is a year older and is already 34 I have a hard time seeing him having anything but a worse market.
Top Free Agents hitters next year are whom? Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera and Nelson Cruz, after that you get guys who are above average hitters like Pablo Sandoval and Russell Martin. Then you get the Hanley Ramirez/ Aramis Ramirez injury prone type players who would be lucky to get a long term deal.
PEDS don’t scare off teams like they should and Jhonny Peralta would largely agree that if you’re a proven hitter someone will pay for you.
Look at what Granderson got for prior years of 40 home runs even though he provided abysmal production in 2013. Look for Cruz to get something close to what he got.
Also no, If you look up the previous 2013 articles on this site about Cruz, nobody knew how he’d perform outside of Texas given that his OPS on the road was .720 for his career up until this year and many baseball experts were slapping “caution” on anyone who looks to sign Cruz for that reason since guys like Hamilton have gone to pitcher friendly ballparks and struggled to do anything.
But Cruz is not like Hamilton. He went to Camden Yards, not Angel Stadium. If there was ever “caution” on Cruz, it still should be there
I agree with LazerTown. Last year was a PED issue, not an injury issue. Also, his injury history didn’t necessarily disappear, he just became a DH and it became less of a concern. I really don’t think his market changes significantly. He was posting similar numbers in a smaller sample last year
Preciously, he’s the same player he was last year. People had no clue if he’d be able to replicate those numbers since it was likely tainted. Also like I’ve said, he’s performing much better on the road this year than at home. PEDS or not, teams don’t seem to care once you’ve proven yourself, look at Jhonny Peralta. Why should Cruz be any different when he’s proven two years in a row to be a legitimate home run threat?
2014 Home Splits: .236/.311/.461
2014 Road Splits: .286/.349/.598
When you list players in the 2nd tier you neglect to mention that they are a catcher and 3rd baseman. Then you list a SS and another 3rd baseman. If we are talking about just the offensive component then Cruz might be the best player. However, Cruz is a DH masquerading as a poor corner outfielder. Russell Martin is a tremendous defensive asset.
Aside from that, Cruz has had a very solid 1.5 years now. But he is also turning 35, and $15M/year is not chump change to pay a DH. If Cruz can repeat this last year then it probably makes sense to extend the offer. Of course, he could turn in a 2011/2012/2013 season where he was worth on average maybe half that $15M annually.
Pretty sure teams look at where that guy is going to bat in their lineup before handing out each contract. A guy can be a 6WAR player but when half of that worth is defense, nobody is going to bother writing up a juicy contract for $20M+ a year. JJ Hardy is worth around that in WAR terms, however no GM in baseball pays someone off of WAR terms and if they did they wouldn’t be able to sign anyone because everyone gets overpaid in FA after a strong offensive season and not a strong defensive season.
When Cruz get’s the qualifying offer and turns it down then doesn’t sign with one of the 12 teams looking for a DH for 2-3 years and $13-$17M a season I can come back on here and tell you that you were right.
But you also have it limited to teams looking for a DH. I could easily see a team like the Phillies making a play for Cruz.
True. I just can’t see his market being significantly higher than last year. Obviously he would get better than 1/$8, but I don’t think by much, and probably not enough to justify turning down a QO
No, I agree completely but I believe he would’ve gotten at least a 2 year deal at the worst and it should’ve out earned that $8M slapper that he got by Baltimore.
I just don’t think he can get enough (if given a QO) to justify not taking the QO. He’s in a situation similar to Ortiz a few years ago. He may just be a year to year basis, but on the bright side he will have a higher AAV if he does it that way
Is declining 1/15 and taking on the risk of becoming this year’s Cruz/Drew/Kendrys really worth the risk if the upside is 1/15+3/25?
Is 4/40 an overpay for Hardy? He’s got good defense and would hit well in Yankee stadium. 3-4 WAR per season over the last four. Power numbers are down this year, but he still hits well.
$10M a season is about what Hardy is worth, the real question is if he can find a team who’s willing to give up a draft pick to actually sign him.
How much do you have a one win being worth on the open market?
You have to look at the lack of power Hardy has playing in the A.L East this season with the fact that defensive range should be the first thing to go as he ages.
I personally believe o-WAR should be ranked in dollar terms as lots of teams don’t overpay on defensive merits alone and d-WAR has too much impact on WAR overall. I think 1.0 o-WAR should be $4.0M.
I think it depends on the position. But I think there are lots of teams that primarily go on defensive metrics when it comes to SS. There are still plenty of teams out there, like the O’s, that won’t even tough you if you aren’t a good defender at SS, regardless of what your offensive metrics are. They aren’t paying for that part of your game at SS.
Well most teams pay on offensive production, I see you read my previous comment and it speaks truth to the market inefficiency in Free Agency.
“A guy can be a 6WAR player but when half of that worth is defense, nobody is going to bother writing up a juicy contract for $20M+ a year. JJ Hardy is worth around that in WAR terms, however no GM in baseball pays someone off of WAR terms and if they did they wouldn’t be able to sign anyone because everyone gets overpaid in FA after a strong offensive season and not a strong defensive season.”
Can you even give markakis a QO with a option left on his contract?
Yes, decline the option then make the offer
Yes to all three.
What are the odds that the Orioles had a gentleman’s agreement with Cruz, thus making it so that they won’t offer him a QO regardless. I’m not sure if you are allowed to put this in a contract. That is why I ask. I have to think that that would be a big negotiating point for Cruz
No one but Cruz and the O’s will know. However, it does violate the CBA. I assume that both the team and Cruz would face penalties if such an agreement were made and it was leaked.
Are you sure that violates the CBA? I recall a few years ago that the Yankees and Javier Vazquez made an agreement that the Yankees would offer him a QO but he’d agree to turn it down. This was back when there were Type A and Type B FA but if what you said is a violation, I don’t see how what I said wouldn’t be.
It does violate the CBA, the type A and B free agents were under the rules of the previous CBA. Pretty sure when they did away with Type A and B’s and switched to the QO system there was a stipulation explicitly stating that teams and players cannot agree to a contract where the team agrees not to offer the QO.
Right, but I have to assume it was a huge talking point for Cruz. I’m not saying it happened, but I would’t rule it out
Zero %.
If the Orioles can renew Markakis at $17 million with a $2 million buyout, why follow the qualifying offer route? It would cost the same as merely renewing him for another year.
If he declines and leaves they get a draft pick out of it. That’s the only strategy I can see if considering offering one to Markakis.
Offering him $15 million in a qualifying offer means they are willing to pay him $15 million. Unless they really want to get rid of him (I don’t think they do), declining the option and offering a qualifying offer makes no sense.
I don’t think he’s likely to get a $15 million per year offer from anyone else…
But he might get a bigger contract with more years from someone else, especially with the lack of options on the market this year. And I don’t think DD wants to lock Markakis into that kind of year. A one year deal is probably ideal if you’re the O’s, but I think you’re also willing to let him walk, especially if it comes with a pick. So the QO is the better route to take compared to just picking up the option.
But… then they’d have to find another rightfielder. Do they have one in the pipeline? Maybe Alvarez? Urrutia? It’s a tough call because, well, he ain’t worth $17 million… not even $15 million…
Markakis has hovered around a 1 WAR player this year, and was a negative WAR player last year. I don’t think the Orioles should be too worried about replacing that level of production. A cheap AAAA player could give you that.
The poll mechanics are messed up. The “total votes” (and, by extension, percentages) are a measure of every checked box. So, for instance, more than 46.75% of people think Cruz will get a QO.