Anthopoulos On Blue Jays: Starters, Navarro, Second Base
The Blue Jays look increasingly likely to end the offseason without making much noise, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. Toronto seemed primed to make some decisive changes, but has given out just one guaranteed MLB deal through free agency. Here are some notes on the club, featuring plenty of comments directly from GM Alex Anthopoulos:
- As recent reports have indicated, Toronto is increasingly unlikely to add a new arm. "As we sit here today with what the current cost would be," Anthopoulos said today, "we feel better with what we have here internally."
- Anthopoulos had indicated that Toronto could be in the market for one or even two starters after a disappointing 2013. But, he said, the club gained confidence in the current slate of rotation options as time went on, reports MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. "As the offseason has progressed, we've felt better about the internal options, especially the young guys," explained Anthopoulos.
- Though he has consistently stated that overpaying for a pitcher is not preferable, Anthopoulos acknowledges he did just that in addressing the team's catching situation, reports John Lott of the National Post. The Jays inked Dioner Navarro to a two-year, $8MM deal to become the club's new backstop. "I would have preferred to do one year and lower dollars," Anthopolous said, explaining that the club felt change was necessary at that position. But the GM feels that the pitching scenario is different: "We wanted to add to the rotation depth, but again, with where some of the prices were, whether it was years or dollars, or some of the acquisition costs in some of the trades, I wouldn't have felt good doing a scrum, sitting here saying, 'well, we did it, we don't believe in the acquisition costs, we just did it because we felt we had to do it, but we don't feel good about it.' You need to feel good about those moves if you make them."
- Likewise, Anthopoulos said that the Jays are probably not going to make any moves at second, the other major area of apparent need, Chisholm reports on Twitter. "I would think it's unlikely that we add someone there," said the GM, "but I would say that we'll still continue to have some dialogue trade-wise."
Red Sox Likely To Sign Chris Capuano
The Red Sox are likely to sign free agent hurler Chris Capuano, with a deal potentially announced later today or tomorrow, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. GM Ben Cherington said today that the team "may be close to bringing another pitcher to camp," Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports on Twitter.
Reports of Boston's interest in the 35-year-old southpaw arose on Tuesday, after it was announced that Ryan Dempster would sit out the season. Capuano struggled with injuries late last year, and ultimately ended up finishing his tenure with the Dodgers spending time throwing from the pen. That probably suits the Sox just fine, however, as the team is said to be interested in adding a swingman who can contribute innings in either capacity.
Capuano has worked from the rotation over much of his career, making 209 starts out of 238 total appearances. Across the last two years with Los Angeles, he logged a cumulative 3.91 ERA in 304 innings, with 7.2 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9.
Braves Extend Andrelton Simmons
The Braves have agreed to a seven-year extension with shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the club announced today via press release. The Relativity Sports client receives a $58MM guarantee.
Simmons, 24, will now be under contract with Atlanta through the 2020 season. The deal covers all of his arb-eligible years and includes two seasons of free agent eligibility. With just 1.125 years of service heading into 2014, Simmons was a possible (but by no means certain) Super Two player for 2015.
Placing in the same service class as recent extension signees like Julio Teheran, Martin Perez, Jose Altuve, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt and Madison Bumgarner, Simmons' guaranteed money tops them all. Indeed, Simmons now sets the high mark for all extensions of players with between one and two years of service, topping Ryan Braun's eight-year, $45MM deal from back in 2008.
Last year, his first as a regular, Simmons sported a .248/.296/.396 line in 658 plate appearances, with 17 home runs and 6 stolen bases. While his hitting stats do not jump off the page, Simmons' defensive reputation is nearly unmatched. Baseball-Reference credited him with a remarkable 5.4 dWAR, resulting in an overall value of 6.8 wins above replacement. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Simmons would increase his value significantly moving forward, of course, if he can retain his power and get on base at a stronger clip.
Simmons gets a $1MM signing bonus. He will make the following annual salaries: $1MM (2014), $3MM (2015), $6MM (2016), $8MM (2017), $11MM (2018), $13MM (2019), and $15MM (2020).
It has surely been a stunning last few weeks for a Braves organization that entered the offseason with a host of talented young players and questions about whether they could all be retained. Added to the recent extensions for Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward (the latter of which did not extend control), Atlanta has now committed just over $280MM to its existing roster in just over two weeks' time.
Though Atlanta reportedly suffers from one of the game's least favorable TV deals, it has signed on for a new ballpark (and surrounding development) deal that promises new revenue. Indeed, GM Frank Wren said recently that expected income from that new endeavor was critical in funding the team's extensions.
Samuel Whitmore tweeted last night that the Braves were set to agree to a seven-year deal with Simmons. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted the contract value. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported the annual breakdown via Twitter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Extending Mike Trout
Mike Trout's on-field excellence need not be repeated here, nor compared to that of other players. He is really young, and really good, and is those things combined in a manner unmatched by any other current player. Also, having not yet qualified for arbitration, he is really cheap.
Trout will remain youthful for some time, and every indication is that he'll continue to be outstanding. But he will not continue to play for a league minimum salary for much longer.
Set to hit arbitration next year with potentially unprecedented levels of performance, Trout could well shatter records if he is allowed to go year to year. Then, qualifying for free agency after the 2017 season at just 26 years of age, Trout could become the most sought-after open-market player in baseball history.
On the other hand, injury or decline could change things. And Trout's career earnings are relatively meager as things stand, in spite of his two monster years of performance, leaving him somewhat exposed entering his platform seasons.
So, both Trout and the Angels face risk, and both sides have incentives to talk about a new deal. Indeed, recent reports indicate that the parties are legitimately interested in making a serious run at reaching an extension at the start of the current year.
That makes this an opportune time to ask MLBTR's readers how they see things. The poll below comes with two questions, broken into two parts, both of which assume an extension scenario during the current offseason (or reasonably early during the 2014 campaign, when any contract is likely to be inked due to luxury tax considerations).
First, it asks you to opine as to the largest deal that the Angels should be willing to agree to with Trout (years and dollars). Second, it asks you to predict what deal Trout will ultimately land.
I have set fairly generous response parameters, designed to avoid patently absurd responses. The number of years must be between 3 and 15, while the amount (in $MMs) must fall between 50 and 500.
Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world's leading questionnaire tool.
Click below to view survey results.
NL Notes: Cashner, Rizzo, Drew, Mets, Dodgers, Pirates
With the trade that sent Andrew Cashner to the Padres and Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs now over two years distant, R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus takes a look at its background and how it has played out to date. While both players have proven that their talent plays at the big league level, each still comes with questions. Nevertheless, the trade appears to have been quite an equal swap at this point, he opines.
Here's more from the National League:
- The Mets hesitation with respect to shortstop Stephen Drew relates to the team's valuations of him and internal option Ruben Tejada, reports MLB.com's Anthony DiComo. "At the numbers he's looking for," a source told DiComo, "we don't think he's worth it compared to what we have." At this point, a trade of Ike Davis is a more likely outcome than the signing of Drew, says DiComo.
- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said today that a platoon was possible at second base, a prospect that Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times questions. Both Alexander Guerrero and Dee Gordon — the two likely platoon options — are converting from shortstop, and each brings lots of uncertainty to the table. Guerrero, the club's most expensive offseason acquisition, has reportedly had some struggles moving to the other side of the bag, but putting his right-handed bat in a platoon role would significantly limit his plate appearances.
- In spite of a resoundingly successful 2013 campaign, Pirates GM Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle will both go into the season without a contractual assurance that they'll be around for another. As Rob Biertempfel of the PIttsburgh Tribune-Review reports, Owner Bob Nutting said today that extensions for the two are not a major priority, though he indicated that he'd be amenable to talks at the right time. "What they've done for the organization in good and bad times really is tremendous," said Nutting, "and I hope they're with the organization for a long time. My expectation is they're going to be critically important pieces of this organization as we go forward."
- Nutting also indicated that the Pirates would still consider giving up a draft pick to sign a free agent, Biertempfel further reports. "Certainly nothing is off the table," he said. "But at the same time, we need to recognize that a first-round draft pick is a meaningful source of talent for a team like the Pirates. We want to be smart and cautious." The Bucs have spoken with first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales, Biertempfel notes, though the extent of the team's interest remains unknown.
Orioles Designate Liam Hendriks For Assignment
The Orioles have designated righty Liam Hendriks for assignment to clear a roster spot for Ubaldo Jimenez, the club announced. The 25-year-old Aussie has bounced around quite a bit already this offseason, moving from the Twins to the Cubs and then on to Baltimore.
Though Hendricks has been seen as a solid prospect in the past, and has a strong minor league track record to back that up, he has struggled in his early-career MLB action. Over 156 total innings pitched, he sports a 6.06 ERA, with 5.8 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 and a 40.4% ground-ball rate. Last year was particularly ugly, as he surrendered a disconcerting 1.9 HR/9 en route to a 6.46 ERA in 47 1/3 innings for Minnesota.
Blue Jays Unlikely To Sign Free Agent Starter
The Blue Jays are unlikely to sign a free agent starting pitcher, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Of greatest consequence, perhaps, Stark says that the team is not likely to land top remaining hurler Ervin Santana.
Though Toronto has long been seen as one of the strongest buyers in the remaining market, Stark explains that the club is steadfastly refusing to increase its offers to meet players' demands, as the Orioles did to sign Ubaldo Jimenez. One source said that the Jays would not sign Santana unless he "fall[s] in their lap."
Instead, GM Alex Anthopoulos is expected to allow several of the organization's young arms to compete for a rotation slot. The top Toronto baseball man said that, while the team would "love to add a starter to maintain [the team's] depth," it remained "comfortable with what we have." Anthopoulos continued: "If the right guy were to come along at the right price, we're definitely open-minded to the idea of adding one more starting pitcher."
Quick Hits: Angels, Alderson, Dodgers, Ruiz, White Sox
In a must-read piece for ESPN The Magazine, Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus provides a riveting look into the Angels' efforts to turn around the organization's languishing farm system. Focusing on the philosophies of assistant GM (and former big leaguer) Scott Servais, Miller explores how the Halos hope to emulate the shockingly simple methods of the Cardinals while infusing deep, data-driven analysis into their player-development efforts.
Here are more links from around the game to finish the day:
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson hopes to stay in his role for two or three more years, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. The 66-year-old, who took the helm in October of 2010, is currently under contract for the following season with a club option for 2015.
- New Dodgers TV network SportsNet LA has yet to reach agreement with many local pay-TV distributors, reports Joe Flint of the Los Angeles Times, which means that a majority of Los Angeles viewers would be without Dodgers games if the season started today. Though the network expressed confidence that deals will be in place by the onset of the 2014 campaign, Flint explains that negotiations promise to be tense.
- In an interesting profile of Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz, Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer notes that little notice was given to the fact that Ruiz has been cleared by MLB to use Adderall in the coming season. That is the very substance for which Ruiz was suspended at the start of last season. Brookover paints a picture of a genuinely passionate backstop who is ready to earn his new three-year, $26MM contract.
- A major factor in the White Sox' rebuilding plans is number-two starter Jose Quintana. As MLB.com's Scott Merkin writes, the work of scouts Daraka Shaheed and Joe Siers was responsible for bringing Quintana into the Chicago organization as a minor league free agent from the Yankees, and for setting him on the trajectory to serve as a starter. The 25-year-old, who notched a 3.51 ERA in an even 200 innings last year, is likely to become arbitration-eligible next season as a Super Two. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently looked at the excellent work of Shaheed and Siers in examining the increasing number of Major League deals for minor league free agents.
- Busy as the Sox were this off-season, no single addition carries as much risk (and, perhaps, upside) as 27-year-old first baseman Jose Abreu. As Merkin reports, the big Cuban — who inked a six-year, $68MM deal in late October — has drawn rave early reviews for his professionalism both at the plate and in terms of effort.
Giants Avoid Arbitration With Brandon Belt
The Giants have avoided arbitration with first baseman Brandon Belt, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The sides have agreed upon a one-year deal for $2.9MM, tweets Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com, just eight hours before Belt's hearing was set to begin.
Belt, who hits and throws from the left side, is coming off of an outstanding season in which he put up a .289/.360/.481 line in 509 plate appearances, establishing himself as one of the league's best young hitters. The 25-year-old knocked 17 home runs and upped his overall power production while continuing to get on base at a solid clip.
Belt had filed at $3.6MM, while the Giants countered at $2.05MM, meaning that Belt lands just above the mid-point. That left the sides further apart than all but two other arbitration cases (in relative terms) on filing day. Belt was projected to earn $2.4MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but beats that figure by a substantial margin. While his $2.9MM baseline falls shy of the $3.6MM figure landed by Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, the fellow Super Two-eligibles are closer than Swartz had expected, as he had pegged Hosmer at $4.1MM.
Extension Notes: Bailey, Masterson, Samardzija, Segura, Simmons, Sandoval, Belt
Homer Bailey and the Reds were said earlier today to be close to a new deal, but nothing had materialized as of this evening. In the latest update, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports that details are still being worked out. GM Walt Jocketty echoed his star hurler's comments, saying that progress had been made. "There are still some outstanding issues," said Jocketty. "Hopefully they get resolved in the next 24 hours or else people are going to have to suit it up and go east." Jocketty was referring, of course, to donning not baseball uniforms but rather the business attire necessary for an arbitration hearing. "It's a lot of little things," Jocketty continued. "The structure of the contract, how it's paid and things like that."
Here's a look at some other potential extension situations shaping up around baseball …
- Though the threat of an arbitration hearing has been avoided between Justin Masterson and the Indians, those parties could be operating on something of a deadline of their own. Masterson, a comparable pitcher to Bailey in many ways, is also entering his final season of arb-eligibility before hitting the open market. Though Masterson has said he'd be willing to continue discussions into the season, club GM Chris Antonetti says that he would rather keep talks to the spring, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
- Another power pitcher, Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, currently stands to qualify for free agency after 2015. As ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers reported today, team president Theo Epstein still hopes a deal can be worked out. On the other hand, his comments echoed some of the sentiment recently expressed by Samardzija, who indicated that the sides had reached something of a stalemate in negotiations. "Sometimes there is going to be a natural gap where a player values himself for what he can do and the team has to factor in a little bit more what he has done," Epstein explained. "It doesn't mean we're tremendously far apart, but if you are apart you kind of table it for another day and we'll see what happens."
- The Brewers previously explored extension talks with young shortstop Jean Segura, but those discussions did not lead anywhere. The club remains interested, but as MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports, nothing has occurred in the interim. "We're always open to [extension talks]," said GM Doug Melvin. "We've locked up some, some we didn't. We didn't get Prince [Fielder]. We offered him a deal earlier on to buy into free agency, but it just depends what players want. Not a lot of them want long-term deals that will take away free agency, and we like to get deals that have at least a year of free agency if we can."
- Another promising young shortstop, the Braves' Andrelton Simmons, has watched as three youthful teammates inked long-term deals in recent deays. As David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes (link behind paywall), Simmons is keeping his eye on the field but would be interested in a new contract. "I'm just focused on playing," said Simmons. "If it happens, great. I love Atlanta. So hopefully something gets done. But you never know." As O'Brien points out, uncertainty remains in Simmons' arbitration value. Not only does it remain unclear whether he will qualify as a Super Two (he has 1.125 years of service time), but his immense defensive value may not translate into commensurate arbitration earnings. Of course, another defense-first shortstop — Elvis Andrus of the Rangers — was able to ink a shorter-term, early-career deal (at three years of service) and then land another, much greater extension just a year later.
- The Giants have at least two worthy extension candidates. The first and more pressing, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, is entering his final season before hitting the open market at age 28. But the sides are currently not engaged in talks, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Cotillo notes that today's physical could have a bearing on how things play out. Sandoval, who at times has seen his conditioning questioned, has made some waves by slimming down entering camp this year.
- A different sort of urgency is shaping up with regard to Giants first baseman Brandon Belt, who is scheduled for an arbitration hearing bright and early tomorrow. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, though discussions are presently focused on Belt's 2014 salary (the sides stand far apart at $3.6MM and $2.05MM), GM Brian Sabean says he remains interested in exploring a longer-term deal. "We like the player," said Sabean. "We think he's one of the up-and-coming players in the National League and we want to hold onto him. But first things first." What Sabean seems to mean is that Belt's future earning capacity through arbitration is very much tied to the divergent filing figures submitted by each side.
- Indeed, Belt would stand at the same starting point as fellow Super Two first baseman Eric Hosmer (who agreed to a $3.6MM price with the Royals) if he wins his hearing. That would set both players on a potentially higher arbitration trajectory than that of another young first bagger, Atlanta's Freddie Freeman, who just inked a monster extension to avoid arbitration in his first of just three seasons of eligibility. Freeman had filed at $5.75MM, with the Braves countering at $4.5MM; both Belt and Hosmer could easily land in that realm with another big year. As I recently explained in discussing the impact of the Freeman deal, Belt and Hosmer could potentially look to Freeman's eight-year, $135MM contract as a target — though it remains to be seen, of course, whether their employers would go to that level.