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Rosenthal On Beckett, Lee, Gardner

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports examines the Red Sox' negotiations with Josh Beckett and the Yankees' center field decision in a pair of new columns. Let's check out some noteworthy points:

  • Rosenthal points to the lack of top starting pitching talent available in the next two or three free agent classes, suggesting that this could make signing Beckett more important for the Red Sox.
  • Although the Sox generally don't like committing long-term contracts to pitchers, Rosenthal opines that keeping Beckett might be less risky than losing him, due to the lack of viable replacements.
  • The other top starting pitcher whose contract expires this season is Cliff Lee, who "most baseball people agree" will go to the highest bidder. That may end up being the Yankees, who could use Lee to replace Javier Vazquez.
  • At least four teams (the Royals, Reds, Padres, and White Sox) attempted to acquire Brett Gardner this winter, hoping to start him in center field.

Cafardo’s Latest: Mauer, Beckett, Wood, Sonnanstine

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The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo has his usual Sunday column up, kicking it off by entertaining the unlikely possibility of Joe Mauer playing in Boston. If the Twins and Mauer can't work out a long-term deal, Cafardo thinks the Red Sox would be one of a handful of teams that could afford the superstar backstop. Here are a few other highlights from Cafardo's piece:

  • One possible roadblock in the Josh Beckett negotiations is the Red Sox' desire to incorporate injury protection into the contract. If Beckett has a good year in 2010, he will likely have suitors that won't include health clauses in their offers, which could appeal to the right-hander.
  • The Cubs have some interest in Kerry Wood. Cafardo notes that the Indians closer would also be a good fit for the Twins, but that the Tribe would have to pick up a significant chunk of the $10.5MM Wood will earn this season.
  • The Rays may entertain trade offers for Andy Sonnanstine, who is having a solid spring.
  • Billy Wagner says that returning to Boston was "tempting" but that with Jonathan Papelbon firmly entrenched as the ninth-inning guy, the lefty went where he'd have a better chance to close.

Omar Vizquel Could Play Beyond This Season

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Even though he'll turn 43 in April, Omar Vizquel isn't assuming this will be his final season, according to MLB.com's Chris Haft. Haft reports that the veteran defensive specialist hopes to stick around for as long as his body lets him.

"My body's holding on good, I'm feeling good, I feel I have the passion for it, I consider that I had a good year last year (.266 in 62 games with Texas) and that's why I'm here, because my body's telling me that I can still be out there and compete with the other guys."

Vizquel signed a one-year, $1.375MM pact with the White Sox shortly after the 2009 season. While his 195 plate appearances with the Rangers last year were a career-low, he still provided solid value off the bench. In the admittedly limited sample size, his defense was as good as ever, according to UZR/150. Until those numbers slip, he should be able to find a role as a utility infielder and late-inning defensive replacement.

Adam Jones Wants Long-Term Stay With Orioles

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Adam Jones would like to play for the Orioles for as long as they want him, according to Peter Schmuck and Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Following his 2010 contract renewal, Jones expressed optimism about his future in Baltimore:

"If they want me to be here for a long time, I would love to be here for a long time…. They've expressed the same interest. You just let Andy [MacPhail] and Baltimore and my agents do their work."

Jones hit .277/.335/.457 in 519 plate appearances for the O's in 2009, his second full season as a starter. If the two sides were to discuss an extension for the outfielder, Franklin Gutierrez's four-year, $20.5MM contract with Seattle might be a suitable comparison. Jones has displayed a little more offensive pop than Gutierrez, but not the same superb level of defense.

With two years and 139 days of service time, Jones barely missed out on achieving Super Two status this season, losing a tiebreaker to Mike Fontenot. Like certain other players with less than three years of service time, Jones had his contract renewed by his club. A renewal, as opposed to a signing, can sometimes be a quiet way for a pre-arbitration player to protest the salary the club assigns him. Schmuck and Zrebiec discuss the renewal process in their article, and in a second piece by Schmuck, noting that Jones will make $465K in 2010.

Discussion: The Future Of The Rays

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In a piece for MLB.com, Hal Bodley discusses the challenge of maintaining competitive balance in baseball, using the potential payroll cut facing the Rays as an example. According to owner Stuart Sternberg, Tampa Bay may have to cut player salaries from over $70MM in 2010 to the $50MM range for 2011.

Bodley's article focuses more on revenue sharing and competitive balance around the league, but for our purposes, let's examine the Rays' specific case. In perhaps the scariest division in baseball, spending significantly less than the Red Sox and Yankees, will the Rays realistically be able to compete past this season?

A look at the 2011 free agent list reveals a few major contributors who could be entering their last year in Tampa, including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano. The club still has a strong young nucleus that includes Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, and David Price, among others, but losing a third of their starting lineup and their closer would sting.

Could the team bring back one or two of those major free agents? Crawford, Pena, Burrell, and Soriano alone will earn over $36.5MM in 2010, so even taking into account next year's arbitration raises and reduced payroll, the team could have some negotiating flexibility with that money off the books. Or they could let everyone walk, pile up a few compensation draft picks, and spend that extra money elsewhere.

So, if you're running the Rays, facing a significant payroll cut for 2011, what's your approach? If your team is slipping from contention by the trading deadline, do you shop Crawford and other players? Which potential free agents, if any, do you attempt to bring back next season?

Odds & Ends: Grudzielanek, Royals, Fielder, Calero

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Links for Sunday….

  • In his latest mailbag, MLB.com's Jim Street writes that he could see Chad Cordero hooking on with a major league club if he continues to stay healthy and perform well in Spring Training.  Cordero is in camp with the Mariners and competing for a job, but is unlikely to make the team as the bullpen is already stocked with quality right-handers.
  • Mark Grudzielanek is eager to hook on with the Indians, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.  The 39-year-old second baseman, who was absent from the majors in 2009, says he has his eye on the starting job.
  • MLB.com's Dick Kaegel reports that Royals shortstop prospect Jeff Bianchi will miss the 2010 season with elbow surgery. Danny Duffy, a left-handed pitcher and the organization's #8 prospect according to Baseball America, will be shut down as well for the time being due to elbow stiffness.
  • Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel talks to Brewers GM Doug Melvin about Prince Fielder's future. Melvin reiterates that the team hopes to keep Fielder around for many years, and revisits an instance during his stint as the Rangers' GM when he had to trade a heavy hitter.
  • Questions about Kiko Calero's health might have kept him on the market longer than expected this winter, but Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News says that the righty has been throwing off a mound and looks okay for now. "Conditioning-wise he's pretty good," pitching coach Dan Warthen said. "He just hasn't seen hitters."
  • Newly-acquired Melvin Mora could end up playing nearly every position on the diamond for the Rockies this year, writes Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post.
  • WEEI's Alex Speier reports that Brian Shouse's minor league contract will earn him $800K if he makes the Red Sox' major league roster.

Twins Sign Nick Blackburn To Extension

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The Minnesota Twins have signed Nick Blackburn to a four-year, $14MM contract that includes an $8MM club option for 2014, according to a team press release.  Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune says Blackburn will earn $750K this year, $3MM in 2011, $4.75MM in '12, and $5.5MM in '13.  The extension is very similar to Scott Baker's. 

Blackburn's first two full seasons in the Twins' rotation have been remarkably similar, with the right-hander posting an 11-11 record over 33 starts in both 2008 and 2009. His peripherals remained consistent as well, including a sparkling 1.8 BB/9 over the two seasons, along with a less impressive 4.4 K/9. The 28-year-old is one of many Twins pitchers who performed markedly better at home than on the road. He had a 3.57 career home ERA in the Metrodome era, and a 4.64 ERA in other stadiums.

The contract buys out all of Blackburn's arbitration-eligible seasons, with the Twins holding the $8MM option for his first potential season of free agency. Based on the righty's numbers to date, $14MM for the next four years looks like a reasonable price for the Twins. Blackburn's performance in those four seasons will dictate whether the Twins would be wise to invest another $8MM on him in 2014, at age 32.

The press release notes that the Twins also renewed the contracts of 20 other players, locking up each of the 40 players on their current roster for the coming season.

Discussion: Jacoby Ellsbury

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Alex Speier of WEEI confirms today what we heard reported last week by CSNNE.com's Joe Haggerty: neither Jacoby Ellsbury or his agent, Scott Boras, have discussed a long-term extension for the outfielder with the Boston Red Sox.

Speier points out that other core Red Sox players, such as Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia, had about the same amount of Major League service time as Ellsbury when they signed extensions that bought out their arbitration-eligible seasons and their first year of free-agent eligibility. Ellsbury, however, says that there have been no conversations on the subject to date:

“I’m going to play this year. When the Red Sox talk with my agent, I guess that’s when that ball starts rolling…. I think it’s fine [that there have been no long-term talks]. I’d like to get one more year under my belt, but if they come with something tomorrow, then it’s a totally different ballgame."

Ellsbury is still only 26, and it's possible we haven't yet seen his ceiling. If he develops double-digit home run power and increases his 2009 OBP of .355, he could potentially make himself even more valuable in a year than he is right now. On the other hand, he's coming off a season in which he hit .300+ and stole 70 bases, two numbers it will be a challenge to improve upon in 2010.

So with Ellsbury's arbitration years approaching, who should be exercising more patience when it comes to negotiating a possible long-term contract for the speedster: Boras and Ellsbury, or the Red Sox? And if you're a Sox fan, what sort of price would you feel comfortable with?

Cafardo On Hamilton, Beckett, Jackson, Green

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Roy Halladay hopes and expects to pitch in the postseason with the Philadelphia Phillies, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo also notes that the Red Sox made a fair trade proposal for the ex-Jay, but that Toronto needed to be blown away to deal their ace within the division. Here are some of Cafardo's other hot stove notes:

  • One National League scout had this to say about the possibility of the Rangers trading Josh Hamilton: "Everybody in Texas denies it, and I don’t know what to base it on, but there’s a feeling the Rangers may do something, and teams want to be ready." A handful of scouts are keeping an eye on the slugger, just in case.
  • The Red Sox' extension talks with Josh Beckett have at least been "amicable, if not productive." Like they did with the J.D. Drew and John Lackey contracts, the Sox could attempt to include medical language in their offer to Beckett.
  • After being traded out of New York this winter, Austin Jackson feels more comfortable with Detroit, no longer weighed down by comparisons to legendary Yankee outfielders of the past.
  • The Red Sox offered Nick Green a minor league contract before he signed with the Dodgers, and now he represents the type of player they need: a backup shortstop. The team is hoping that Bill Hall proves capable of handling the role so that Jed Lowrie can play every day in Triple-A.

Discussion: Joe Beimel And Ron Mahay

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A look at the remaining 2010 free agents reveals only a handful of left-handed relievers still available. Of the small group, two names stand out as more reliable options than the rest: Joe Beimel and Ron Mahay.

The 32-year-old Beimel has been one of the more consistent lefties in the majors over the last few seasons, posting a 3.17 ERA in 287 relief appearances since 2006. Mahay, 38, has been nearly as effective, compiling a 3.50 ERA in 234 games over the same period. Both pitchers, however, showed warning signs in 2009: Beimel was tough on left-handed hitters, but walked more righties than he struck out, while batters hit nearly .300 against Mahay.

So where might these veteran relievers land? The Mets have been connected to both recently and seem like favorites to sign at least one of the two, but they've yet to compromise on a price with either pitcher. The Phillies had some interest in Mahay earlier in the offseason, and could still use another left-handed arm in their bullpen, but there haven't been any reports linking the two sides since January.

Do you see Beimel and Mahay exercising a little more patience, perhaps in hopes that a few spring injuries force a team to meet their demands? Or will they have to lower their expectations and sign cheap ($1MM or less) one-year deals, or even minor league contracts?

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