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The Opener: Blue Jays, Greene, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | July 8, 2025 at 8:27am CDT

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Blue Jays go for ten straight wins:

The Blue Jays have ridden a nine-game winning streak to a comfortable 3.5-game lead over the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East. Toronto is tied with Philadelphia for the fifth-best record in the majors. The Jays are set to go for their tenth consecutive victory today in a road date with the White Sox. Veteran righty Chris Bassitt (4.32 ERA) takes on right-hander Aaron Civale, whom the Sox acquired just under one month ago. Civale has a 4.60 ERA in nine starts this year but a 3.83 mark in 40 innings since returning from the injured list in late May.

2. Setback for Greene?

Reds ace Hunter Greene has been on the injured list since June 4 due to a groin strain — his second of the season — but has been expected to return to the majors not long after the All-Star break. That timeline is being thrown off course, however, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer noted yesterday that the righty has been scratched from his scheduled rehab start today after consulting with the team’s medical staff. Neither Greene nor manager Terry Francona provided much clarity on a timeline for the right-hander’s return, but Wittenmyer suggests that Greene’s timeline could be pushed back into August.

The Reds are just 46-45 this year despite going 15-11 in June without Greene, who has posted a 2.72 ERA in 11 starts this year. As the trade deadline looms, the Reds face an increasing deficit in both the NL Central (8.5 games) and the Wild Card race (3.5 games). Will they be able to stay afloat long enough for Greene to make an impact down the stretch? Will his murky outlook spur the front office to pursue additional help?

3. MLBTR Chat today:

We’re now into the second week of July, which means we’re just a few short weeks away from this year’s trade deadline. While it will be difficult for another in-season blockbuster to top the Rafael Devers deal from June, MLBTR recently published our Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline list with a number of intriguing names in the mix. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

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The Opener

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Giants’ Erik Miller Diagnosed With UCL Sprain

By Nick Deeds | July 7, 2025 at 9:57pm CDT

July 7: Miller tells Shayna Rubin of The San Francisco Chronicle that he was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain. He’ll miss at least five weeks, but there’s no indication that surgery is yet a possibility.

July 5: The Giants announced a pair of roster moves this evening after announcing the return of Matt Chapman earlier in the day. The club placed left-hander Erik Miller on the 15-day injured list due to a left elbow sprain and selected the contract of left-hander Scott Alexander to replace him on the active roster. A 40-man roster spot was already open after the club’s DFA of Sergio Alcantara earlier today.

The loss of Miller is a significant one, as he’s served as San Francisco’s primary late-inning lefty this season. The southpaw has been utterly dominant this season with a sterling 1.50 ERA across 36 appearances, though his 17.2% strikeout rate and 3.92 FIP both suggest there’s plenty of good luck baked into that run prevention number. A look under the hood reveals Miller has managed to strand 89.4% of the baserunners he’s allowed this year, has floated a 15.6% walk rate that would raise eyebrows even with a higher strikeout rate, and that he’s managed to go all season without allowing a home run. None of that feels especially sustainable, and the cracks have begun to show in recent weeks as he’s actually walked more batters than he’s struck out over his last 18 appearances.

Despite all those red flags, the run prevention Miller has provided has been undeniable and will be nearly impossible to replace. Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez, and Camilo Doval have formed a solid late-inning nucleus, but now the Giants will turn to Joey Lucchesi and Alexander as their lefty arms in the bullpen. Lucchesi has a 4.50 ERA in six innings of work, though his six strikeouts in that time are somewhat encouraging. As for Alexander, he pitched to a 6.06 ERA with a 7.01 FIP for the Rockies earlier this year but is now back in the Bay Area after spending two seasons with the Giants and one season in Oakland between 2022 and ’24.

He posted a 3.28 ERA and a 3.43 FIP in 117 appearances during that three-year stretch, and if he can unlock anything close to that production for the Giants this year he’ll be a worthy replacement for Miller in the bullpen who might even end up with more sustainable peripherals. Alexander’s production is carried primarily by high ground ball rates. His career rate entering this year stood at 67.4% and it’s never fallen below 60% in a season. That has changed this year, however, as he’s generated grounders on just 53.4% of batted balls. The Giants are surely hoping that pitching half of his games at Coors Field had an impact on his ability to keep the ball on the ground and that he’ll be able to rediscover his worm-burning ways now that he’s part of their relief corps again.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Erik Miller Scott Alexander

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Poll: Should The Marlins Still Trade Sandy Alcantara This Summer?

By Nick Deeds | July 7, 2025 at 12:15pm CDT

When we first polled MLBTR readers on the possibility of the Marlins trading Sandy Alcantara back in April, more than 87% of respondents said that Miami should try to trade Alcantara this year, before the trade deadline. There was certainly logic to that idea. After all, the Marlins were in a season where they had no hope of competing and Alcantara was widely expected to be the most sought-after player on the trade market. At the time, he had made three starts with a 4.70 ERA that appeared elevated, but he also had solid peripherals that suggested he was likely to be a surefire playoff starter for any team in need of rotation help.

Things have changed since then. Alcantara now sports a 7.01 ERA on the season as he’s struggled badly in his return from Tommy John surgery. His stretch of eight starts immediately following that poll saw him pitch to a shocking 10.09 ERA with a 16.1% strikeout rate, a 12.1% walk rate, and a FIP of 6.00. That stretch of brutal performances has evened out a bit since the calendar flipped to June, but even in six starts since then he’s posted a 4.89 ERA. That’s hardly an enticing figure for a team in need of a pitcher capable of fronting a playoff rotation, to say nothing of how concerning the season-long numbers are at this point.

Given Alcantara’s weak numbers, it’s easy to make the argument against parting ways with him at this point. His value is arguably at an all-time low, and the emergence of Edward Cabrera (3.33 ERA in 15 starts) this year means he isn’t even the Marlins’ best trade chip for the summer. Despite all of his struggles this year, Alcantara is still a former Cy Young award winner who is more than capable of turning things around. In fact, he’s already begun to show signs of improvement. While his last six starts have yielded that aforementioned unsightly 4.89 ERA, during that time his strikeout rate (18.2%) is trending in the right direction and his walk rate (4.1%) is actually better than ever. It’s not at all hard to imagine a strong second half putting the Marlins in position to get more for Alcantara this winter even in spite of the fact that he would be available for one less pennant race if traded after the season.

On the other hand, the possibility that Alcantara does not turn things around must be considered. It’s easy to forget in the glow of his dominant Cy Young season in 2022, but the right-hander’s 2023 was actually rather pedestrian as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.03 FIP. That’s certainly a useful pitcher, but hardly the sort of ace a World Series contender would feel confident starting Game 1 of a playoff series with. The farther Alcantara’s peak in 2022 fades from memory, the lower his value will go and the harder it will be to convince interested teams that they’re buying low on an ace-caliber arm, unless he’s able to recapture that form.

Additionally, the market conditions this summer are very seller-friendly. There are only a handful of clubs certain to sell, and even fewer who both have and are willing to part with quality, controllable pieces. That gives the Marlins a great deal of power on the trade market, as they hold two of the best controllable arms who are expected to be available in Cabrera and Alcantara. With so many contenders in need of starting pitching and limited options available, it’s at least conceivable that a desperate team would be willing to take the risk of paying something close to full value for Alcantara’s services despite his brutal performance this year. The risk in waiting to deal a talented player whose production has taken a nosedive can be seen with the White Sox, who have frequently declined to trade Luis Robert Jr. in recent years amid hopes that he would put up a healthy, dominant season to raise his value. That hasn’t happened and now the Sox might not be able to get anything of note in return.

How should the Marlins handle the Alcantara question this summer? Should they trade him for what they can get this summer, or hold him to see if he can bounce back? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara Before The Deadline?
Only trade him if someone is willing to pay a premium despite his performance. 45.03% (1,713 votes)
Yes, get what you can before his value sinks further. 40.62% (1,545 votes)
Don't entertain offers at all and bet on a rebound that will raise his value. 14.35% (546 votes)
Total Votes: 3,804
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara

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The Opener: Nationals, Tigers, Rays, Pitchers’ Duel

By Nick Deeds | July 7, 2025 at 8:21am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals leadership changes:

Yesterday, the Nationals made the decision to part ways with both GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez. The team has already named Mike DeBartolo as the team’s interim GM who will handle baseball operations for the remainder of the season. He’ll be thrown right into the thick of things, with the 2025 draft (where the Nationals have the first overall pick) just a week away and trade season already upon us. It seems one of his first tasks while in charge will be selecting an interim manager to help guide the club, as the Nationals did not initially announce a replacement for Martinez. That decision is expected sometime today, and whoever is selected will join Warren Schaeffer, Don Kelly, and Tony Mansolino as in-season managerial hires this year.

2. Series Preview: Tigers vs Rays

A series between two of the AL’s top contenders begins today as the Rays head to Detroit for a three-game set against the Tigers. Tampa enters the series having recently pulled into a tie with the Yankees for second place in the AL East, just three games back of the division-leading Blue Jays. Detroit, meanwhile, has the best record in the majors and has won seven of their last ten games. The Rays, meanwhile, have gone just 4-6 in that time. The series kicks off later today with right-hander Shane Baz (4.33 ERA) on the mound for Tampa. The Tigers don’t have an announced starter for today’s game but could turn to Dietrich Enns (who has a 7.00 ERA in nine innings this year) for bulk innings if they opt for a bullpen game. The series will have more traditional pitching matchups the rest of the way, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot (3.34 ERA) taking on Jack Flaherty (4.84 ERA) tomorrow. The series wraps up Wednesday with right-hander Zack Littell (3.50 ERA) on the mound against righty Reese Olson (2.89 ERA in ten starts).

3. Pitchers’ Duel in Milwaukee:

Another series between two contending clubs is taking place today in Milwaukee, where the Dodgers will be taking on the Brewers in a series that will kick off with an exciting pitchers’ duel today between two hurlers who will represent the National League in this year’s All-Star game. Right-hander Freddy Peralta is on the mound for the Brewers against Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto has made just 17 starts this year as the Dodgers have monitored his workload closely, but those starts have been dominant with a 2.51 ERA and a 28.6% strikeout rate. Peralta has been no slouch either, as he’s posted a 2.91 ERA in 99 innings of work with a 25.5% strikeout rate. First pitch in this intriguing matchup is scheduled for 6:40pm local time.

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The Opener

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Diamondbacks Place Pavin Smith On IL, Select Tristin English

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 2:03pm CDT

The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves this afternoon headlined by their placement of first baseman Pavin Smith on the injured list with an oblique strain. Infielder Tristin English had his contract selected from Triple-A to replace Smith on the roster while left-hander Tommy Henry was recalled to the majors and placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot for English.

Smith, 29, has played just one of Arizona’s last four games and now heads to the shelf with an oblique strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, nor is it clear when Smith will be able to return, though he’ll be out until after the All-Star break at the very least. It’s a tough blow for a Diamondbacks roster that’s already been ravaged by injuries to key pieces like Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, and Gabriel Moreno this season.

The club’s first-round pick all the way back in 2017, Smith made his big league debut in 2020 but scuffled at the big league level for several years before finally breaking out during his age-28 season last year. Since then, Smith has been a key cog in the Diamondbacks’ lineup with a fantastic .265/.363/.485 slash line in 139 games, with 17 homers, 26 doubles, and a 13.7% walk rate. That sort of production is difficult to replace, and bench pieces like Randal Grichuk and Jake McCarthy will be called upon to help take up the load in the Arizona lineup.

One other potential contributor could be English, who is set to make his MLB debut should he make it into a game. The club’s third-rounder back in 2019, English has spent time in all four corners throughout his time in the minors can could be a major help for the club off the bench or against left-handed pitchers. The 28-year-old scuffled a bit at Triple-A last year but has hit incredibly well across 58 games at the level this season with a .338/.388/.549 slash line to go with nine home runs, 23 doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 14.2%. Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor have the infield corners locked down on a fairly regular basis for the Diamondbacks, though Smith’s departure leaves DH at-bats for the taking and English could contribute in the outfield as well. It’s also possible that Naylor, who has been playing through a neck injury in recent days, could benefit from extra time at DH that would allow English to step in at first base.

As for Henry, the southpaw underwent elbow surgery late last month. Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Alex Weiner of AZ Sports) today that Henry’s procedure repaired his UCL with an internal brace rather than a full replacement (Tommy John) surgery. That could improve Henry’s odds of pitching at some point during the 2026 season, but the decision to move him to the 60-day IL remains largely procedural as he won’t pitch again in 2025 regardless. With that being said, the move does afford Henry the opportunity to collect an MLB salary and earn big league service time while he rehabs his surgically repaired elbow.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Pavin Smith Tommy Henry Tristin English

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Details On Bryan Reynolds’ Limited No-Trade Protection

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 1:44pm CDT

The Pirates appear to be open for business regarding trade talks for most of their roster (sans Paul Skenes) this summer. In a trade market without many quality bats available, that could make two-time All-Star Bryan Reynolds a particularly intriguing commodity for some teams. One potential wrinkle in Reynolds’s availability is his partial no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to a list of six teams. A report from Noah Hiles from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette yesterday revealed those teams are the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres.

All six of those teams are in playoff contention and stand out as likely to not only buy this season, but do so fairly aggressively. It’s not unheard of for a player to waive their no-trade clause, and some players with limited no-trade protection even specifically prioritize putting likely contenders on their no-trade lists to maximize the amount of leverage they have in determining their destination should their team decide to trade them. With that being said, the news of Reynolds’ no-trade list certainly makes a deal sending him to any of those six clubs far less likely.

Many of the clubs Reynolds can block a trade to appear to be imperfect fits on paper. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets all have deep corner outfield mixes and seem very unlikely to prioritize adding a bat like Reynolds when they have larger needs elsewhere. The Giants likely made their big splash of trade season already when they acquired Rafael Devers from the Red Sox, although Mike Yastrzemski is in the final year of his contract and would be unlikely to stop San Francisco from adding an impact bat. Addison Barger’s breakout and George Springer’s resurgence have more or less locked down the right field and DH spots for the Blue Jays, and while there’s an opening in left field for the moment that figures to change as soon as Anthony Santander returns from the injured list.

Perhaps the clearest fit for Reynolds on his no-trade list is the Padres, who have long appeared to be a bat short in the lineup as they’ve cycled through options like Jason Heyward, Trenton Brooks, and Oscar Mercado with little success this year. There’s a clear opening in left field for Reynolds to theoretically step into, as well. With that being said, San Diego has operated under some extremely tight financial constraints in recent years that would make it difficult to see them deal a player like Reynolds, who is due more than $77MM after this season on his extension with the Pirates. It should also be noted that, despite Reynolds’s long track record of success in the majors, he’s in the midst of the worst full season of his career as he’s slashed just .232/.298/.384 with a wRC+ of 87 this season.

That combination of a hefty contract, a tough 2025 campaign so far, and now a list of six contenders who likely will not be in the market for Reynolds’s services could mean the Pirates won’t get as much interest in their star outfielder as they may have hoped. Even if that proves to be the case, however, Reynolds is sure to get at least some interest around the league. The Royals have already been connected to Reynolds just this past week, and there will surely be more outfield-needy teams who at least give the Pirates a call to see if there’s a match. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies and Cardinals stand out as clubs that could theoretically stand to make a substantial upgrade to their outfield who might have the resources necessary to take on Reynolds’s contract.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Bryan Reynolds

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Tigers Select PJ Poulin

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 11:03am CDT

The Tigers announced a pair of roster moves this morning. They’ve selected the contract of left-hander PJ Poulin to the 40-man roster and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. Left-hander Sean Guenther was recalled from Triple-A and placed on the 60-day injured list to make room for Poulin on the 40-man roster. According to Evan Woodbery of MLive, Poulin had an upward mobility clause in his contract and the Tigers opted to add him to their 40-man roster in order to keep him in their organization.

Poulin, 29 later this month, was an 11th-round pick by the Rockies back in 2018. A two-way player in college, Poulin committed to pitching upon his move to affiliated ball. He looked quite good in the lower minors as a reliever in his first two years as a professional, but the canceled minor league season in 2020 lost him a year of development and he generally struggled with his effectiveness in the upper minors during his time with the Rockies organization.

He was dealt to the Tigers prior to the 2024 season and has looked quite good since then, as he posted a 2.10 ERA in 60 innings between Double- and Triple-A last year before posting a 3.72 ERA in 36 1/3 frames at Triple-A this season. That solid but unspectacular ERA comes with a much more impressive 33.8% strikeout rate, and that kind of strikeout stuff from the left side makes it easy to see why the Tigers decided it was worth it to add the lefty to their 40-man roster rather than risk losing him to another organization.

Making room for Poulin on the 40-man roster is Guenther, who has a 2.30 ERA and 2.73 FIP across 31 1/3 innings of work with the Tigers over the past two seasons. Guenther was on the shelf in the minors after undergoing hip surgery last week, meaning that the move to place him on the 60-day IL is largely a procedural one. With that being said, it does come with the side effect of allowing him to collect a big league salary and earn MLB service time until he’s activated and optioned back to the minor leagues.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions PJ Poulin Sean Guenther

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Blue Jays Place Andres Gimenez On 10-Day Injured List

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 10:16am CDT

The Blue Jays announced a flurry of roster moves this morning, headlined by their move to place second baseman Andres Gimenez on the 10-day injured list with an ankle sprain. Outfielder Joey Loperfido was recalled to the big league roster to replace Gimenez. In a second set of moves, right-hander Ryan Burr was activated from the 60-day injured list. Right-hander Lazaro Estrada was optioned to Triple-A and outfielder Will Robertson was designated for assignment to make room for Burr on the active and 40-man rosters respectively.

Gimenez suffered an ankle injury on Wednesday, and aggravated the issue further on Friday after initially attempting to play through it. He was viewed as day-to-day initially, but Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet noted yesterday that Gimenez was being sent for an MRI. That MRI revealed a sprain, and the Blue Jays evidently felt the issue was severe enough to warrant a trip to the injured list. Gimenez’s exact timeline for return is not yet known, but the timing of the injury means he won’t be back until after the All-Star break at the very earliest.

It’s a tough blow for the division-leading Blue Jays, as while Gimenez is batting just .218/.300/.322 on the year he’s offered his trademark strong glove at second base and has heated up considerably since returning from a quad strain at the start of June. In 25 games since returning, Gimenez had slashed .253/.340/.349 with a wRC+ of 101. A combination of league average offense and Gimenez’s stellar defense is enough to make him an extremely valuable player, as seen in 2023 when he posted 3.8 fWAR for the Guardians despite a 97 wRC+.

While Gimenez is on the shelf, the Jays appear likely to rely on some combination of Will Wagner, Leo Jimenez, and Davis Schneider at the keystone. Loperfido is replacing Gimenez on the roster after posting a 111 wRC+ at the Triple-A level throughout this season, but he hit just .214/.264/.350 in 81 games for the Jays last year and seems unlikely to be much more than a depth option for the club during this return to the majors. Acquired from the Astros as part of the Yusei Kikuchi trade, Loperfido does actually have some experience at second base in the minors but has been limited to the outfield and first base at the big league level.

As for Burr, the right-hander is now poised to make his season debut after being sidelined by a bout of right shoulder inflammation during Spring Training. Burr posted a 4.08 ERA in 75 innings with the White Sox between 2018 and 2022 before spending the 2023 campaign in the Rays’ minor league system. He joined the Blue Jays for the 2024 season and posted a 4.13 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work with an impressive 33.6% strikeout rate. Toronto is surely hoping Burr can leverage that high strikeout rate into stronger results going forward, and if he can it wouldn’t be hard to see him become a late-inning option for the Jays to help set up Jeff Hoffman.

Making room for Burr on the 40-man roster is Robertson, who crushed the ball at Triple-A this year to the tune of a .288/.410/.582 slash line (159 wRC+) in 51 games to break down the door to the majors and force himself onto the big league roster for the first time in his career. He ultimately appeared in just three games at the big league level, however, and struck out in seven of his 12 plate appearances in the majors. He did notch his first big league hit before getting sent back down, however, and since then he’s continued to hit at a high level in the minors. The Blue Jays will now have one week to either trade Robertson or attempt to pass him through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, he can be outrighted to the minor leagues as a non-roster depth option for the remainder of the season.

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Toronto Blue Jays Winter League Andres Gimenez Joey Loperfido Lazaro Estrada Ryan Burr Will Robertson

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Yankees Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Major League Deal

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 10:10am CDT

The Yankees announced this morning that they’ve signed right-hander Geoff Hartlieb to a major league deal and selected him to the roster. Left-hander Jayvien Sandridge has been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Hartlieb on the active roster.

Hartlieb, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Yankees during the offseason and made his lone big league appearance of the season this past week against the Blue Jays. He was lit up for three runs on two hits and three walks while striking out three in one inning of work and was promptly designated for assignment. He ultimately cleared waivers and elected free agency but is now back in the majors with New York on a fresh MLB contract.

Prior to playing for the Yankees, Hartlieb had played in five MLB seasons across four organizations. He got his start with the Pirates in 2019 and struggled to a 9.00 ERA in 35 innings during his debut season but settled in and provided some solid middle relief help for Pittsburgh during the shortened 2020 campaign with a 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 frames. Since then he’s made only sparing MLB appearances, with an ugly 8.59 ERA in 22 innings of work between 2021 and 2024 for the Pirates, Mets, Marlins, and Rockies.

Going forward, Hartlieb figures to offer the Yankees another depth option capable of going multiple innings. That could be a useful stopgap addition as they try to sort out a pitching staff that recent lost Clarke Schmidt to what will likely end up being season-ending Tommy John surgery. Schmidt’s injury leaves the Yankees very short on starting depth with Ryan Yarbrough, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Gil all already on the shelf. That could leave the Yankees relying on bullpen games every fifth day for the time being unless they’re willing to dedicate a rotation spot to right-hander Allan Winans. As for Sandridge, the lefty recently made his MLB debut and two runs on two walks, a hit batsman, and a homer while recording two strikeouts in 2/3 of an inning. He’ll head back to Triple-A and serve as optionable lefty depth for the Yankees going forward.

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New York Yankees Transactions Geoff Hartlieb

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Nationals Recall Shinnosuke Ogasawara For MLB Debut

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2025 at 10:07am CDT

The Nationals announced this morning that they’ve recalled left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Ryan Loutos was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Ogasawara, who is slated to make his MLB debut when he starts against the Red Sox later today, on the active roster. Ogasawara’s impending debut was first reported by the Japanese outlet Sponichi Annex.

Ogasawara, 27, signed a two-year deal worth $3.5MM during the offseason. He did not make the club’s starting rotation out of Spring Training and was optioned to the minor leagues, where he made just three starts before being sidelined by an oblique injury. Ogasawara spent two months on the shelf before beginning a rehab assignment in rookie ball last month. Since then, he’s advanced to the High-A level where he struck out five in four innings of work while surrendering two runs. Despite his most recent start coming in the lower minors, the Nationals clearly feel he’s ready to step into the club’s rotation to help fill in for the injured Trevor Williams, who was sidelined by an elbow sprain on Friday.

Prior to joining the Nationals, Ogasawara had spent nine seasons pitching for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons. His rookie season as an 18-year-old in 2016 was impressive as he posted a 3.36 ERA across 15 starts in Japan’s Central League, but he struggled at the highest level of NPB play over the next few seasons. He started to turn things back around in 2021, however, and from then on he posted ERAs of 3.64, 2.72, 3.59, and 3.12 across his final four years in NPB.

Impressive as that run prevention in recent years may be, there are some concerns. Ogasawara has struck out just 18.9% of batters faced during his time in NPB, and that’s dropped even lower in recent years as he posted a strikeout rate of just 13.6% for the Dragons last season. Among qualified starters this year in MLB, Ogasawara’s career figure in NPB would place him in the bottom 20 in terms of strikeout rate while his 2024 figure would place him second from the bottom ahead of only Padres righty Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has a 3.79 ERA this year in 18 starts despite shoddy peripherals, so it’s certainly not impossible to find success at the big league level with a low strikeout rate. With that said, it’s clearly an uphill battle to be a quality big league starter with that lack of strikeout stuff. The lefty’s 3.6% walk rate in 2024 should help matters, though, and it’s at least worth nothing that Ogasawara has actually struck out 24% of his opponents in the minor leagues this year.

Making room for Ogasawara on the active roster is Loutos, who was plucked off waivers from the Dodgers earlier this year but has surrendered ten runs (eight earned) in 7 1/3 innings of work for the Nationals across eight appearances where he’s walked (eight) more batters than he’s struck out (six). Loutos will return to Triple-A and continue serving as an optionable depth piece for the Nationals to call on when they need an extra arm for the bullpen.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Ryan Loutos Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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