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Should Rockies Deal Holliday?

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The Denver Post has split opinions on whether or not the Rockies should deal Matt Holliday this season.  Columnist Troy E. Renck says the Rockies have been bad "from top to bottom."  He cites the rotation, situational hitting, leaky bullpen, and dealing with pressure as problem spots and that they would need to go "70-36 in their final 106 games" to be in contention.

As MLBTR has covered here, Woody Paige reports that the Rockies can’t tie up $40MM in three position players and that Scott Boras won’t accept a hometown discount.  Paige proposes:

Holliday would be a significant addition for Cleveland, and the Rockies also could send best friend Garrett Atkins or Brad Hawpe… [for] starting pitcher Cliff Lee (8-1, 1.88 ERA and four superb pitches), a middle reliever and an outfield prospect. The Rox, depending on the second player in the deal, play Ian Stewart at third or in left, and Ryan Spilborghs becomes a full-time starting outfielder who could be the next Holliday.

Alternatively, Mark Kiszla believes trading him would not bring enough back to justify not re-signing him and that trading him would send the wrong message to players and fans.  Instead, they should actively work to re-sign the slugger through negotiations.  Kiszla’s argument:

"When the Texas Rangers decided it could not pay to keep powerful young first baseman Mark Teixeira a year ago, the offer the Rangers finally accepted from Atlanta was for a rookie catcher and four minor-league prospects."

Interestingly, Jon Heyman thinks the Rockies won’t be able to get as good a deal as the Rangers got for Teixeira, a deal that’s not good enough for Mark Kiszla.

By Nat Boyle

No Santana, No Regrets for Red Sox

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Earlier this morning, MLBTR noted how Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think the Yankees have regrets over not landing Johan Santana despite their would-have-been trade pieces now struggling or injured.  Today’s Boston Globe discusses the Red Sox similar feelings.

Chad Finn not only brings us an amusing baseball card of a young Lou Pineilla, but also shares his relief that Boston did not give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and/or Jed Lowrie for Johan (consequently setting the record for a trade involving the most players with first names beginning with the letter "J").

Referencing Buster Olney’s blog, Finn concedes to Olney that this years version of Santana is still better than 95% of the starters in the bigs.  Still, he harkens back to this piece from November in which he suggested Santana was beginning to decline and should be dealt for a monstrous booty (as he was) and feels he may have been right with recent grumblings from scouts as reported by Olney:

"Sources say his shoulder showed some wear and tear, which is not unusual for a pitcher of Santana’s age. This is not to say Santana is not an effective pitcher now, but all of this information makes you wonder how effective he will remain during the course of his multiyear deal... Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: ’His stuff isn’t even close to what it was [with the Twins].’"

No hot stove news here, but it’s still a much-discussed topic in rumorland.  And as it stands, it seems all three teams (Mets included) have, so far, made good in this situation.  In his NL conquest Santana, known for stronger second halves, has a 3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, yet a 7.8 K/9 down from a career 9.4.

By Nat Boyle

Mark Ellis: Stay Or Leave?

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reiterates Mark Ellis’ desire to stay with the A’s beyond 2008 but notes, "Testing free-agent waters might be extremely lucrative for Ellis, who is an elite defensive player."

Tim recently sifted through the 2B market and thinks it would take something substantial to acquire Ellis. I don’t see the A’s, who are 27-23, making any sudden moves – at least not with lower profile quantities like Ellis.  Come the off-season Mark Ellis, who turns 31 next week, may be torn between signing for a lot less to stay or following Orlando Hudson who could nab more than 4 years/$30MM, if not extended by Arizona.  These guys are comparable talent-wise – boasting elite defense (edge to Hudson) and decent offense – and if either stays with their team the other could reap the rewards in free agency.

By Nat Boyle

Weaver Staying? Turnbow Not Going Anywhere.

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Tom Haudricout of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports Jeff Weaver has a 6.52 ERA in 29 innings in Triple-A Nashville and can ask for his release next Sunday if he doesn’t see an opportunity with the Brewers as realistic.  Weaver had no spring training, so he’s still in rough form.  Whether or not that form improves has yet to be determined.  The Brewers currently have two struggling starters in Dave Bush and Seth McClung who just replaced Carlos Villanueva in the rotation.

In that same piece, we find that Derrick Turnbow has "suffered a near-total command meltdown" in Nashville.  In 6 outings, he has pitched 4 1/3 innings, allowed five hits, seven earned runs, and a jaw-dropping 15 walks!  Still, there’s no plans for his release. Writes Haudricourt,

"’As long as we’re paying him what we’re paying him, there’s no sense in doing that,’ [Brewers GM Doug] Melvin said. "It’s not like he’s taking somebody’s job.’" 

Turnbow is owed $3.2MM.

By Nat Boyle

Rosenthal’s Latest: Hunter, Santana, Quentin

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It’s Sunday again, so we’ve got some tidbits from Ken Rosenthal’s Full Count video:

  • Torii Hunter was courted by the White Sox and Rangers before signing with the Angels this past offseason; however, according to Hunter, he had a meeting scheduled with the Dodgers to discuss taking the spot that Andruw Jones would come to occupy. The Angels signed him, preventing the meeting.
  • As we enter June, the sky is falling in Seattle…
  • Rosenthal doesn’t think there’s a lot of regret in the Yankee organization for not acquiring Johan Santana.  One executive notes Santana’s throwing with increased effort this season yet without increased results.
  • In this piece, Rosenthal commends the White Sox for their deal for Carlos Quentin. Writes Rosenthal, "’I give Kenny credit — he was on Quentin for a while,’ Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said. ’He believed that the same Carlos Quentin would return now that his shoulder is fixed.’"

By Nat Boyle

Cafardo’s Latest: Boston Could Use Vizquel

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Last week I heard Peter Gammons on ESPN radio discussing Omar Vizquel as a possible replacement candidate for the struggling Julio Lugo.  In today’s Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo chimes in:

"Vizquel is quite fond of Boston but would be interested only if he were a starter. He has a close relationship with Manny Ramírez from their Cleveland days. Vizquel still has a terrific glove and can hit."

Lugo – who is just returning from a mild concussion – finds himself batting .284 but with a .331 OBP and only 7 extra base hits, all doubles.  He has a major league leading 11 errors, almost half of the Red Sox 23 errors.  Here’s a sampling of Red Sox fan frustration.

Playing in a hitters haven would be a good move for Vizquel, who wants to play in ’09, assuming he produces in the spotlight of Boston.  I see Vizquel as a band-aid (although a band-aid may be what they need).  He might be a better option than a Cora/Lugo platoon; however, the Red Sox are a team that can weather this problem even if Lugo’s contract becomes a sunk cost this year.  Jed Lowrie should be called back up this season and may progress well enough to be the solution, making Lugo the new Coco Crisp in ’09.

By Nat Boyle

Rosenthal’s Latest: Delgado, Sexson, Crisp, Byrd

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Ken Rosenthal has some items worth discussing in his latest Full Count video:

  • Trade Carlos Delgado for Richie Sexson? Rosenthal doesn’t see why not. They’re both in walk years, neither have a no-trade-clause, and they’re both making roughly the same amount. I’ll add to that by noting both have arguably met more success hitting in each other’s league.
  • The Indians may put Paul Byrd on the block in an effort to acquire pieces that could eventually lead to an upgrade at 2B or 3B later this season.  The Indians currently have 7 capable starters in Sabathia, Carmona, Lee, Byrd, Westbrook, Sowers, and Laffey.
  • Crisp’s Latest: It may be in the best interest of the Red Sox to wait to deal Coco Crisp in the offseason when the demand increases.  The Padres could use him now but the 2009 Free Agent class is thin at centerfield.  Coco could be maintained for $5.75MM in ’09 and a club option in 2010 for $8MM, or a $0.5MM buyout.
  • Two Byrds in one post! Marlon Byrd’s return from the DL could mean more time at DH for Josh Hamilton in an effort to keep him rested throughout the season.  Hamilton only played 90 games last year after missing about 4 years due to drug suspensions and injury.  If Byrd performs then this would take the Rangers out of the DH market.  So far, so good.

By Nat Boyle

Rosenthal’s Full Count: Bonds, Webb, Hanley

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Let’s hit up Ken Rosenthal’s latest Full Count video:

  • Rosenthal thinks the Tigers should sign Barry Bonds.  Sure, Detroit already has too many DHs, and Bonds wouldn’t help their need for improved defense and speed, but they absolutely need another lefthanded bat.  Rosenthal points out that the team is 11-20 in games started by RHP.  As for the fear of a clubhouse problem, Gary Sheffield – who has feuded with Bonds in the past – has no problem and I would presume that the other players, particularly veterans, on the Tigers would echo that sentiment.
  • The 3-year contract extension for Brandon Webb does not have "a lot of momentum."  Like Jake Peavy last year, Webb is looking for around 3 years, 52 million despite being 2 years older than Peavy.
  • KR loves the Hanley deal.  It keeps them from having to deal another player before his contract becomes too expensive and that there shouldn’t be any concern for Hanley’s production to drop off.

By Nat Boyle

Odds & Ends: Padres, Maddux, Anthony Reyes

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A few Odds & Ends with a San Diego focus:

  • Tom Krasovic of the Union Tribune notes that the Padres are close to completing a trade for a reliever with "good stuff" according to Kevin Towers.  It does not say who it is, but it should be someone better than LHPs Joe Thatcher, who would be sent down, and Glendon Rusch, who was just outrighted yesterday.  Rusch has 3 days to accept his assignment.  He most likely will as he signed a minor league deal after missing all of ’07.  Stay tuned to see who the Padres acquire.  Any guesses?
  • "If [Anthony] Reyes enjoys success as a major-league pitcher, it will likely occur elsewhere," writes Joe Stauss of the St. Louis Dispatch.  This is old news – two years old actually, if you go back to a March ’06 MLBTR post.  We’re just waiting for Cards GM John Mozeliak to lower his price…
  • Tim Sullivan brings us a quote from Jake Peavy, "He can help somebody. It sucks that this is probably the last year of his career and he’s got to sit here and be a part of this and have (this be) the last thing he remembers in baseball — if this thing doesn’t turn."  Sullivan seems to think he could net a couple prospects in a trade, which seems reasonable.  Maddux can certainly reel in some ticket sales, if nothing else – I would love to watch the Professor cap off his legend with my team.

By Nat Boyle

On The Hot Seat: Giambi, Hafner, Sexson, Timlin

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I love lists, and here’s one from Peter Abraham at The Journal News that details who he thinks is in the hot seat.  In other words, who might be traded or released if current trends continue.  There are a number of managers and GMs on the list, but we like to focus on players here.  I’m going to go through the list and take stabs-in-the-dark whether a player is likely to be dealt or if they’re just fluff for Mr. Abraham’s article – and then we can discuss in the comments.

Jason Giambi – An announcer this year said that Giambi’s defensive range extended from his right knee to his left knee.  As a fielder, he’s decent with no range; however, as a hitter Giambi has never been considered a slow starter, as Abraham notes he is a career .281 hitter in April.  Still, like Carlos Delgado, Giambi has shown some recent spurts of life in his bat, and he does have 7 HR (one shy of the league leading 8) and 20 RBI.  PECOTA projects .230-24-73 with a .362 OBP.  If he can bring his average up, he’ll be roughly on target for that projection.  If he can’t, Abraham thinks the Yankees "might as well give someone else a chance."  So far, Joe Girardi’s been supportive and patient calling the slump a product of bad luck.  Prediction: Staying put.

Travis Hafner – Abraham sees .256 with 27 HR in almost 700 ABs and wonders if the Indians would rather trade him to a team who believes he can turn it around than risk eating the remaining $56MM on Hafner’s contract.  At 31, Hafner is an oddity.  Last year the slumping behemoth of a man saw his power drop by almost 20 HR.  He’s currently continuing that trend with his OPS at a mere 640 and w/o a homerun since April 17 (!).  During an ESPN game, they were discussing how his timing – particularly with his front foot-plant – is off making it hard for him to get ahead of pitches.  So his problem seems both perceptual and mechanical – but why can’t Pronk seem to correct this?  I’d be worried because his contract is slowly going from bothersome to disastrous.  PECOTA is not a believer, projecting .275-28-98 – hardly a rebound.  He’s making $6.3MM this year and is on the books for another $70MM until 2013 (with a $2.75MM buyout in his last year).  Is there a batting coach out there on a big-market team that can fix this?  Wouldn’t count on it.  Prediction: Staying put.

Richie Sexson – In the Year of the Slumping First Basemen, Richie Sexson is not at all unlike Giambi or Delgado.  Abraham pulls no punches with Richie, calling him "one of the worst hitters in baseball during the last two seasons and shows no signs of coming around."  He’s making $14MM this year, owed approx. $11.2MM more, and then he’s surely done in Seattle.  I agree with Abraham that $11.2MM will "buy him another month or two" but the Mariners have options and I’d expect them to explore them by trading Sexson and eating some of the contract – maybe sooner rather than later as cutting your losses is (almost) acceptable practice this season.  Sexson has never been the hitter Delgado, Giambi, or Hafner have been and has been intolerably bad for just too long.  Prediction: Shipping off.

Mike Timlin – Making $3MM this year, Abraham notes Timlin has allowed 9 runs in 7 1/3 IP and with a small contract would be an easy piece to move.  But I ask why?  Relief pitching is a commodity, and Timlin – known to the Red Sox as the captain of the bullpen – brings to the team a fair deal of intangible value, particularly as they integrate Craig Hansen and Justin Masterson into their relief corps.  7.1 IP is hardly a sample worth examining as he’s basically still in spring-training-form.  Last year he had a 3.42 ERA in 50 IP and while he’s not the 2.24 ERA Timlin that saved 13 games when Keith Foulke went down, he’s serviceable.  If he fails to progress and becomes a liability then maybe the Red Sox will move him from mop up duty to another team.  Still, I doubt it.  Prediction: Staying put.

Let’s hear your thoughts.  Who did Abraham forget?  Who disagrees?

By Nat Boyle

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