Dodgers Designate Amed Rosario For Assignment, Activate Mookie Betts
The Dodgers announced Monday that they’ve reinstated Mookie Betts from the 60-day injured list and created space in somewhat surprising fashion: infielder/outfielder and trade deadline acquisition Amed Rosario has been designated for assignment.
Rosario, 28, was acquired in a trade sending 28-year-old minor league reliever Michael Flynn back to the Rays. It wasn’t a steep price to pay necessarily, but it’s nevertheless unexpected to see Los Angeles move on in such quick fashion. The versatile Rosario received only 12 plate appearances in his second stint with Los Angeles — the Dodgers also acquired him at the 2023 deadline — and has hit well all season. In 287 plate appearances between Tampa Bay and L.A., he’s slashing .305/.331/.415 — about 14% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.
Dodgers brass was largely choosing among Rosario, Enrique Hernandez and Nick Ahmed when determining who would be the odd man out to clear way for Betts’ return. Hernandez has struggled badly in 2024 overall, but a well-timed hot streak has ostensibly saved his spot on the roster. He’s hitting .333/.405/.545 in 37 plate appearances this month. Ahmed has posted an empty .268 batting average in 42 plate appearances (.268/.286/.341, 77 wRC+), but he’s a high-end defender at shortstop. With Betts returning to right field, keeping an elite middle infield defender like Ahmed apparently won out over keeping a more productive but less valuable defensive piece in Rosario.
The veteran Rosario signed an eminently affordable one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Rays over the winter, looking to rebound from a career-worst showing with the Guardians and Dodgers last year. After spending years as the primary shortstop in Cleveland, he’s moved to a utility role that’s seen him log time at shortstop, second base, third base and in right field this season. He’s drawn poor defensive grades in general and has never been regarded as a high-quality glove at shortstop at the big league level. Rosario has been productive at the plate, however, and that’s particularly true against lefties, who he’s tagged for an impressive .327/.355/.462 line in 2024.
Between his light contract, offensive production and his growing experience at multiple positions, Rosario stands a far greater chance of being claimed by another team than most veterans who are designated for assignment this time of year. The trade deadline has passed, so the only option the Dodgers will have is to place Rosario on outright waivers or release waivers. It’d be another, more modest surprise if he passed through unclaimed.
With that in mind, it’s worth noting that outright waiver order is determined by the reverse order of the MLB-wide standings and is not league-specific. That’s a common misconception, but league-specific waivers pertained to the now-defunct August trade waiver process. (MLBTR has confirmed this with league sources on multiple occasions.) Since Rosario is a free agent at the end of the year, it’s likely that rebuilding clubs and others whose postseason hopes have faded will allow him to pass through.
At the moment, waiver priority among postseason hopefuls (using an admittedly arbitrary criteria of fewer than six games back in either a division race or Wild Card chase) would be ranked: Pirates, Reds, Cubs, Rays, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Braves, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Royals, Padres, D-backs, Twins, Brewers, Guardians, Phillies, Yankees and Orioles. As of this writing, Rosario is still owed $387K of this year’s salary. Any team that claims him would be on the hook for the full sum, whereas the Dodgers would be spared that sum plus the 110% tax as a third-time luxury payor. Overall, waiving Rosario could save the Dodgers about $813K — assuming he’s claimed.
As for Betts, he’ll return to his customary right field and add another former MVP to the top of the Dodgers’ lineup, slotting into between fellow former MVPs Shohei Ohtani (leadoff) and Freddie Freeman (No. 3 hitter). Betts gives manager Dave Roberts a right-handed bat to break up that pair of imposing lefties, and Betts of course is among the more feared hitters in the sport when healthy.
Prior to the fractured hand that cost him the past eight-plus weeks, Betts was hitting .304/.405/.488 with 10 homers, 16 doubles, three triples, nine steals (in 10 tries), a 14.2% walk rate and just a 10.3% strikeout rate. With Betts now back in right field, the Dodgers will play Miguel Rojas regularly at shortstop and Gavin Lux at second base, with the aforementioned Hernandez an option to back up Lux (especially against lefties) and Ahmed providing a glove-first backup at shortstop.
Guardians To Activate Matthew Boyd
The Guardians will reinstate left-hander Matthew Boyd from the 15-day injured list prior to tomorrow’s game, reports Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll make his team debut when he starts for the Guards on Tuesday evening against the Cubs. Cleveland will only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction involving a pitcher, as Boyd is already on the 40-man roster.
Cleveland signed Boyd to a big league deal earlier this summer. He’s spent the season to date rehabbing from Tommy John surgery performed last June and is now ready to step back onto a big league mound. The longtime Tigers southpaw has been sensational during his minor league rehab stint. In 21 2/3 innings across three levels — Rookie ball, Double-A, Triple-A — he’s pitched to a 0.83 ERA with a mammoth 35.1% strikeout rate against a minuscule 2.6% walk rate. We’re looking at small samples against far, far less experienced competition, but Boyd certainly hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of rust.
Boyd’s appearance tomorrow will be his first major league outing since June 26 of last year. The elbow procedure ended what had been a return stint in Detroit. Boyd looked the part of a mid-rotation starter at times during his first run with the Tigers. The first stint also unfortunately concluded with an arm surgery, as Boyd required a flexor repair in September 2021. He was limited to 10 relief outings late in the ’22 campaign as a member of the Mariners. Boyd returned to the Motor City the ensuing winter, signing a $10MM free agent pact.
Even before the Tommy John surgery, Boyd didn’t get the results he wanted last season. He was tagged for a 5.45 ERA across 15 starts. An abnormally low 62% strand rate was the biggest culprit. Boyd had solid strikeout (24.1%) and walk (8.3%) numbers and induced swinging strikes on an excellent 14% of his pitches. He had a hard time keeping the ball in the yard, though, especially against right-handed opponents. That has been an issue throughout Boyd’s career. It’s perhaps the biggest reason he only has one full season with a sub-4.00 ERA despite a consistently strong strikeout and walk profile.
The Guardians signed Boyd in late June, one year to the day after Detroit announced he was headed for Tommy John surgery. The 33-year-old started a minor league rehab stint just after the All-Star Break. He built up to six innings and 63 pitches during his start with Triple-A Columbus last Wednesday. He’ll presumably be on a pitch count for his first couple appearances, but Cleveland will happily take whatever contribution they can get.
Cleveland took the final two games of their four-game weekend set with Minnesota, earning a split in the process. That pushed their division lead back to 3.5 games on the Twins and four up on the Royals. That’s despite their patchwork rotation. Tanner Bibee and, more surprisingly, Ben Lively have been their most reliable starters this season. Gavin Williams has made eight starts since returning from an extended IL stay to open the year. The Guardians welcomed deadline acquisition Alex Cobb back from injury for his team and season debut on Friday. Boyd can step into the rotation spot opened when Carlos Carrasco landed on the shelf that same day. Bibee, Williams and Cobb would probably line up as the top three in Cleveland’s ideal playoff rotation, but Boyd has a chance to push Cobb or Lively for a start in the middle of a series come October.
Cardinals Recall Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker is back in the big leagues. The Cardinals on Monday announced that they’ve recalled the former top prospect from Triple-A Memphis and placed Matt Carpenter on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain. Carpenter’s IL placement is retroactive to Aug. 9.
Walker made his big league debut as a 20-year-old in 2023 and did so to considerable fanfare. The 2020 first-rounder entered last season ranked as a consensus top-five prospect in the entire sport, due largely to the potency of his bat. He pounded eight extra-base hits (three homers, five doubles) in 67 spring plate appearances and landed on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder.
The learning curve for Walker proved fairly steep as he attempted to skip Triple-A entirely. He began his career on a 12-game hitting streak but soon fell into a slump at the plate. Given that he was already struggling to adapt to a shift to the outfield — his natural position, third base, is of course spoken for in St. Louis — the Cards optioned him near the end of April. He was sent down with a roughly average .274/.321/.397 batting line at the time.
Walker returned in June and looked like a new hitter. From June 2 through season’s end, he effectively maintained the same batting average but did so with a notable bump in OBP and considerably more power. Over his final 387 plate appearances, he hit .277/.346/.455 with 14 homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples, an improved 8.8% walk rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate that sat lower than league average. For a player with minimal Triple-A experience who turned 21 in May, it was a highly encouraging finish to his rookie campaign.
Entering the current season, Walker had a lineup spot locked up. However, his ’24 campaign started out with a protracted swoon at the plate that saw him hit just .155/.239/.259 in 67 plate appearances before being optioned back to Memphis. He’s been there since, due primarily to the fact that his struggles have persisted since being sent back down. Through his first 252 plate appearances back in Memphis, Walker managed only a .234/.300/.357 batting line. His 8.3% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate were both solid, if unspectacular marks, but he’s had the same grounder-heavy approach that he’s shown in the major leagues. For a player with above-average but not elite speed — especially one whose calling card is 70- or 80-grade raw power — hitting nearly half your batted balls on the ground is a sub-optimal outcome.
Over the past few weeks, the now-22-year-old Walker has begun to turn things around in Memphis. He’s belted five homers and tallied a dozen extra-base hits over his past 16 games. It’s only a sample of 67 plate appearances, but Walker has sizzled with a .343/.400/.687 slash in that time — far and away his best stretch of the season at any level.
The Cardinals will be hoping to see more of that level of output from Walker as they push to get back into Wild Card position. Though St. Louis has spent a good portion of the summer in possession of a Wild Card spot in the National League, they’ve dropped a game and a half behind the Braves, who currently hold the third spot. The Mets are a game ahead of the Cardinals and are also vying for the final spot.
St. Louis has struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the season, currently ranking as one of the worst lineups in baseball versus southpaws. Their combined .233/.296/.359 slash against lefties translates to an 85 wRC+ (suggesting they’re 15% worse than league-average at the plate). Walker will give them another right-handed bat to help attack opposing lefties, but it’s worth pointing out that he’s struggled tremendously against lefties both in the majors last year and in Triple-A this season. Walker batted .231/.294/.389 against southpaws in ’23 and has a combined .234/.304/.378 slash against them between Memphis and St. Louis this season.
Matt Bowman Opts Out Of Twins Deal
The Twins released right-hander Matt Bowman, per an announcement from the St. Paul Saints, their Triple-A affiliate (hat tip: Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, on X). The 33-year-old Bowman had been pitching well with the Saints and exercised an opt-out clause over the weekend (as first reported by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman). Minnesota had until today to add him to the 40-man roster but have instead opted to let Bowman become a free agent.
Bowman was in his second stint with the Twins organization this season alone. He inked a minor league pact with Minnesota back in January, was selected to the big league roster in mid-April, and wound up pitching 7 2/3 solid innings out of the ‘pen. Bowman yielded only two runs in that first stretch, though his command was quite shaky. In addition to a pair of hits, he issued four walks and plunked a pair hitters while fanning six others. The Twins designated him for assignment and traded him to the D-backs for cash — the first in a lengthy series of transactions for Bowman in 2024.
Bowman spent about three weeks with the D-backs before being designated for assignment once again, this time clearing waivers and electing free agency. He inked a minor league deal with the Mariners and was selected back to the majors in mid-June, only to clear waivers and again elect free agency after just one appearance. Bowman quickly re-signed with Seattle on a new minor league deal, opted out before he got back to the big leagues, and then re-signed a new minor league deal back in Minnesota. He’s now a free agent once again.
It’s a fairly dizzying sequence that’s emblematic of the paths many journeyman of this ilk walk over the course of a given season. Bowman has pitched for six different teams in parts of six MLB seasons. He’s tossed 15 innings this season (5.40 ERA) and has a career 4.22 earned run average in 200 1/3 frames. The Princeton product was originally drafted by the Mets with their 13th-round pick back in 2012, and he’s fanned a below-average 18.8% of his big league opponents against a more solid 8.3% walk rate and a terrific 55.6% ground-ball rate.
This season, Bowman has been outstanding when pitching at the Triple-A level. He’s tallied 30 2/3 innings between Tacoma and St. Paul, logging a sparkling 2.05 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. Between that performance and his respectable track record in the majors, Bowman should get a look from another club seeking some bullpen help in the season’s final six-plus weeks.
Pirates Outright Edward Olivares
Pirates outfielder Edward Olivares went unclaimed on waivers after last week’s DFA and was assigned outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, per the Pirates’ transaction log at MLB.com. As a player with more than three years of big league service, he has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency but will likely accept so as not to forfeit the remainder of his guaranteed $1.35MM salary. (A player needs five-plus years of service to reject an outright assignment and retain his salary.)
Pittsburgh acquired Olivares in a small trade with the Royals back in December, hoping he could continue or build upon the slightly above-average production he turned in with Kansas City over the past couple seasons. From 2022-23, Olivares — whom the Royals picked up from the Padres in exchange for Trevor Rosenthal back in 2020 — batted .270/.322/.439 with 16 homers in 559 trips to the plate. He’s never walked much but also offered lower-than-average strikeout numbers and some value on the basepaths as well.
Olivares has seen his walk rate increase to a nearly average 8.2%, but he’s hitting for far less power and has only attempted one steal this season (which was successful). He batted .224/.291/.333 in 196 plate appearances with the Bucs — about 26% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. Olivares has plus arm strength — 93rd percentile, per Statcast — but has regularly graded as a poor defender in the outfield corners due to poor reads and poor range (despite slightly above-average sprint speed).
The Pirates’ deadline acquisition of Bryan De La Cruz helped push Olivares out of the picture (despite De La Cruz having a generally similar skill set). De La Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Michael A. Taylor figure to get the bulk of the outfield playing time down the stretch in Pittsburgh, though an injury or two could always push Olivares right back into the mix.
As a player with three-plus seasons of big league service who’s now been outrighted off his team’s 40-man roster, Olivares will have the opportunity to become a free agent at season’s end unless he’s added back to the 40-man roster between now and then.
Twins To Promote Zebby Matthews
The Twins are calling up top pitching prospect Zebby Matthews, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll join an injury-plagued rotation and make his MLB debut the first time he takes the mound. Matthews isn’t yet on the 40-man roster, so Minnesota will need to make a corresponding move to formally select his contract.
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey acknowledged last week that Matthews was very much in the mix for a call to the big leagues in the wake of Joe Ryan‘s Grade 2 teres major strain — an injury that puts the remainder of Ryan’s season in jeopardy. The Twins currently have Tuesday’s starter listed as TBD.
Matthews, the Twins’ eighth-round pick in 2022, posted sub-2.00 ERAs in both High-A and Double-A before his recent promotion to Triple-A. He’s had two solid starts and two rough starts at the top minor league level. Collectively, the 24-year-old has logged a 2.60 ERA with an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and a staggering 1.8% walk rate across those three minor league levels. He’s fanned a hefty 114 opponents and issued just seven walks in 97 innings this season.
Though he boasts elite command, Matthews is hardly the type of soft-tossing finesse pitcher one would expect for someone with that type of location. His heater sits in the mid-90s and tops out around 97 mph. Matthews is listed at 6’5″ and 225 pounds, though Baseball America’s scouting report notes that the “massive” righty “seems to be larger” than his listed height and weight. Matthews works with a five-pitch arsenal, complementing his four-seamer with a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. Both BA and The Athletic’s Keith Law write that none of the five pitches are true plus offerings, but they each play up because of his precision.
Matthews has ridden his breakout season all the way to the No. 61 spot on Baseball America’s recent update to their top 100 prospects, where they note that he has perhaps the best command in minor league baseball. Law ranks Matthews 60th in the sport, and MLB.com has him as their No. 100 prospect.
With Ryan shelved perhaps for the duration of the season — manager Rocco Baldelli said his injury would take “weeks or months” to heal — Minnesota will lean on a rookie-heavy starting staff down the stretch. Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober give Minnesota some healthy veterans atop the staff, but they’ll need righties Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and now Matthews to step onto the staff. Right-hander Louie Varland, who opened the season as the No. 5 starter, could also factor in down the stretch, although he’s had a rough showing both in the big leagues and the minors this year.
Woods Richardson has emerged as a solid mid-rotation arm this year, logging 3.78 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate in 102 1/3 innings (20 starts). Festa, a fellow top-100 prospect alongside Matthews, was hit hard in his first two big league starts (12 runs in 10 innings) but has a 2.04 ERA in 17 2/3 innings since. He’s yet to work more than five innings in a big league game, however. Matthews will be the next man up. The Twins remain hopeful that Ryan will return this season, and righty Chris Paddack is also expected to rejoin the rotation at some point, but he’s still on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain.
Matthews won’t be able to pick up enough big league service time to get a full year in 2024, meaning he’ll still be under club control for an additional six seasons — even if he’s never sent back down from this point on. He’d currently be on track to reach arbitration eligibility in the 2027-28 offseason, although future optional assignments to the minors could impact both his arbitration and free-agent timelines. He’ll join a growing pitching pipeline in the Twins organization, where Lopez, Ryan and Ober are signed/controlled through 2027 and each of Woods Richardson, Festa and Varland are (like Matthews) controllable through at least 2030.
Eddie Rosario Elects Free Agency
TODAY: Rosario has turned down the outright assignment and elected to become a free agent, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes (X link).
AUGUST 10: Rosario has passed through waivers, and the Braves have outrighted him to the Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It is unclear if Rosario has accepted the assignment; the veteran outfielder has more than enough MLB service time to reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any salary.
AUGUST 8: The Braves announced Thursday that outfielder Eddie Rosario has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to right-hander Parker Dunshee, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta also optioned lefty Dylan Dodd to Gwinnett and recalled outfielder Eli White.
The 2024 season has been the worst of the 32-year-old Rosario’s decade-long big league career. He’s split the season between the Nats and Braves, tallying 319 plate appearances in spite of a disastrous .175/.215/.316 batting line — including a .154/.181/.282 slash in 84 plate appearances since being released in Washington and signing in Atlanta.
Rosario, the 2021 NLCS MVP has been in a free-fall at the plate for the bulk of the past four seasons. While a well-timed surge following a trade from Cleveland to Atlanta in ’21 helped fuel the Braves’ World Series win that year and set the stage for a two-year deal to return to Atlanta, that contract didn’t pan out as hoped.
Rosario spent the 2022-23 seasons drawing regular playing time when healthy, but he managed only a .240/.289/.408 output at the plate in those two seasons. The Braves declined a $9MM club option over his 2024 season, and Rosario lingered on the free-agent market into March before signing a minor league deal with the Nationals. He returned to Atlanta on another minor league contract after being cut loose in D.C., but he hasn’t been able to recapture any of that late-’21 magic. With the trade deadline now passed, Rosario will be released within the next couple days.
As for the 29-year-old Dunshee, he’ll be making his big league debut after grinding through eight minor league seasons and twice becoming a minor league free agent. Originally selected with the Athletics’ seventh-round pick back in 2017, the Wake Forest product spent six-plus years in the A’s system before being released last April and signing a minor league deal with the Giants for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. He latched on with the Braves on another minor league pact this past January.
Dunshee will now get his first crack in the majors, and he’s more than earned it. Splitting the season between Double-A (14 2/3 innings) and Triple-A (32 1/3 innings), he’s worked to a combined 2.30 earned run average with a massive 33.7% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate. Dunshee is a fly-ball pitcher who’s been fortunate this season in the sense that he hasn’t allowed any home runs. That level of home run suppression isn’t sustainable for any pitcher, but Dunshee’s strikeout and walk rates create plenty of intrigue on their own, even with some regression due on the home run front.
Padres Outright Jackson Wolf
Today: Wolf has cleared waivers, and the Padres have sent him outright to Triple-A El Paso, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. Given his very limited MLB service time and the fact that this is his first career outright, he has no choice but to accept the assignment and remain at Triple-A.
August 8: The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve designated left-hander Jackson Wolf for assignment. He’d been pitching for their Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, and his 40-man spot will go to veteran righty Carl Edwards Jr., whose contract has been selected. San Diego optioned righty Alek Jacob to El Paso in a corresponding move.
Wolf, 25, was in his second stint with the Padres organization. Originally their fourth-round pick in 2021, he went to the Pirates at the 2023 trade deadline as part of the return for lefty Rich Hill and first baseman Jiman Choi. The Bucs designated Wolf for assignment earlier this year, however, and wound up trading him back to the Padres in exchange for minor league infielder Kervin Pichardo.
Wolf made his big league debut with the ’23 Padres, allowing three runs over five innings in his lone start. He’s spent the season with their El Paso club but struggled to a 7.21 ERA over 83 2/3 innings. He’s made 23 appearances, 18 of them starts. Wolf has unquestionably had some tough luck, yielding a .353 average on balls in play that should be due for some regression, but his 17.5% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate are both considerably worse than league average as well. Wolf’s 9.8% swinging-strike rate and 24.3% opponents’ chase rate are both sub-par marks, too. In general, he hasn’t induced whiffs or limited free passes enough to compensate for the amount of extra-base damage he’s yielded: 12 homers, 16 doubles, five triples.
This past offseason, Wolf ranked 21st among Pirates prospects, per Baseball America, whose scouting report tabbed him as a potential fifth starter or bulk reliever. His rough results in 2024 haven’t done any favors for his prospect stock, but Wolf is a 25-year-old who posted solid Double-A numbers in 2023 and is still in just the second of three minor league option years. A rebuilding club looking to stock up on pitching depth (e.g. Marlins, White Sox) could have some interest in an optionable lefty of this nature. The trade deadline has passed, so the Padres’ only course of action with Wolf will be to place him on waivers.
Edwards, 33 next month, will be in his second stint with the Padres as well. He briefly pitched 1 2/3 innings for San Diego back in 2019. He’s one of many former Rangers prospects who’ve found their way onto the Padres roster since the hiring of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM.
Edwards spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Nationals and pitched well out of manager Davey Martinez’s bullpen, tallying 93 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball — albeit with shaky rate stats (20% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate). A stress fracture in Edwards’ right shoulder ended his 2023 campaign prematurely and limited him to a minor league deal this past offseason. That deal came with the Cubs, but Edwards triggered a June opt-out in that contract after he hadn’t been added to the big league roster and signed a minor league deal with the Padres.
It’s been a decent year for the lanky right-hander down in Triple-A. Between the Cubs and Padres organizations, he sports a combined 3.30 ERA but with similar strikeout and walk issues that existed during his Nats run. He’s set down a respectable 22.2% of opponents on strikes but also issued walks at a grim 14.3% rate. Edwards has been a reliever for the bulk of his career but was working out of the rotation in El Paso. He’s ticketed for the relief corps now that he’s back in the majors, but that recent work as a starter means he’s stretched out for multiple innings if needed.
Giants Interested In Longer-Term Deal With Matt Chapman
The Giants’ late offseason dealings saw them sign two of the four prominent free agents who lingered on the market late into the offseason, inking Blake Snell on a two-year, $62MM deal and Matt Chapman on a three-year, $54MM pact. Both contracts came with opt-out opportunities this offseason — Chapman’s also has an opt-out opportunity post-2025 — and despite an early slate of injuries for Snell, both are looking like shrewd pickups now.
Snell has garnered more attention recently, which is understandable on the heels of a 15-strikeout performance that was immediately followed by a no-hitter in Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But while Snell draws headlines, Chapman continues to more quietly post excellent numbers. Both players look like locks to opt out at season’s end right now, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants have interest in signing Chapman to a long-term deal that’d keep him in San Francisco.
For the 31-year-old Chapman, the 2024 season has played out in almost inverse fashion to his 2023 campaign. Last year, Chapman roared out of the gates with a Ruthian start to his season, hitting .384/.465/.687 through the end of April. He was never going to sustain that level of production, but the extent to which his bat cratered was nonetheless alarming. The two-time Platinum Glove winner hit just .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. A hand injury suffered in August likely contributed to a truly dismal finish, but even leading up to that injury, Chapman had been a below-average hitter for a stretch of more than three months.
That cold snap carried over into the 2024 season, as Chapman hit just .222/.266/.385 through the end of April. Since then, however, he’s turned his season around. In 367 plate appearances since May 1, Chapman is touting a .257/.360/.473 batting line. He’s homered 15 times, walked at an impressive 13.1% clip and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s 28.4% down to 24.3% in that stretch. (If you truly want to cherry-pick, Chapman is slashing .275/.382/.519 since May 17.)
It’s been an odd stretch for Chapman, who from May 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024 looked the part of a hitter very much on the decline. He’s now spent more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances distancing himself from that slump, however — and he’s done so while playing his customary brand of standout defense. Between his renaissance at the plate and his always excellent glovework, Chapman has been worth 5.3 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) and 3.8 WAR, per FanGraphs. The discrepancy stems primarily from bWAR using Defensive Runs Saved in its equation (which credits Chapman as an elite defender), whereas fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (which feel he’s been “merely” above-average). Regardless of one’s preferred version of the stat, Chapman has graded out as a star-caliber player this season. If he continues this pace, he’ll likely garner some down-ballot MVP votes.
Given the manner in which his season has played out, it’s not all that surprising to hear the Giants have interest in keeping him around. It can’t hurt that San Francisco brass was quite familiar with Chapman even before he signed there. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was an assistant general manager with the A’s in 2014 when they selected Chapman with the 25th overall pick in the draft. Skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman in Oakland from 2017-21.
Many of the roadblocks that prevented Chapman from landing the nine-figure deal most anticipated last year still persist. He’s 31 years old and will turn 32 next April. There’s minimal precedent for position players at that age signing for $100MM+. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado are the only hitters in the past decade to sign contracts of that magnitude beginning in their age-32 season (or later). Of course, rare precedent doesn’t rule out the possibility — and there’s also nothing yet suggesting that Chapman is dead set on a nine-figure deal (though given the strength of his season it certainly seems like a likely goal for Chapman and agent Scott Boras).
The Giants have just under $85MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season (not counting the buyout on Chapman’s $18MM option). That’d jump to more than $135MM if each of Snell ($30MM), Chapman ($18MM) and Wilmer Flores ($3.5MM) picked up their player options. Flores seems likely to do so, but he could be the only one if Snell and Chapman stay healthy. Arbitration raises will be owed to Mike Yastrzemski (earning $7.9MM this year), LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3.5MM in ’24), Tyler Rogers ($3.2MM), Thairo Estrada ($4.7MM) and first-time-eligible closer Camilo Doval, regardless of the fact he was optioned to the minors tonight. No one from that group is going to push the Giants into uncharted payroll territory, and Estrada’s not guaranteed to be tendered a contract in light of his injuries and offensive struggles.
Looking further down the road, the only players on the books beyond the 2025 season are Robbie Ray (signed through 2026), Jordan Hicks (through 2027), Logan Webb (through 2028) and Jung Hoo Lee (through 2029). Ray can opt out after the current season (unlikely at the moment), while Lee can opt out after 2027 (although it’s far too soon to tell whether that’s realistic). Regardless of how those opt-outs play out, the Giants are just over $80MM in terms of guaranteed payroll in each of the next two seasons and around $60MM in 2026 and $45MM in 2027. There’s ample room on the payroll to factor in a long-term arrangement for Chapman, if the two sides can come to terms on a price point that’s agreeable for all parties.
Twins Showing Interest In Rich Hill
The Twins have been in contact with veteran left-hander Rich Hill, who hosted a showcase for big league scouts earlier today, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The Red Sox were also in attendance for Hill’s showcase, WEEI’s Rob Bradford tweets, though it’s not clear whether they’ve spoken to Hill about a potential reunion. The Yankees and Dodgers were previously connected to Hill and thus presumably also in attendance this morning.
Minnesota’s interest comes at a time when Joe Ryan was just diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder that puts the remainder of his season in jeopardy. Ryan joined righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day IL earlier today, leaving Minnesota with an inexperienced group of options — Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Louie Varland — behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober in the starting rotation.
Hill, 44, has said since last year that his plan for the 2024 season was to pitch — but only in the season’s second half. The southpaw signed a one-year deal with the Pirates in the 2022-23 offseason and pitched well early before beginning to show signs of fatigue. He still managed to eat up 146 1/3 innings between Pittsburgh and San Diego (who acquired him at last year’s trade deadline), but it was generally a tale of two seasons for Hill. The lefty notched a respectable 4.34 ERA and matching FIP through his first 15 starts, punching out 21.1% of his opponents against an 8.6% walk rate. In his final 63 1/3 innings, he was torched for a 6.82 ERA with a 17.7% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9.
Waiting until later in the season affords MLB’s elder statesmen some perks beyond potentially keeping him fresh. Most importantly, Hill has spoken on record before about the additional time he was able to spend with his family, coaching his son’s team (link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Signing in August also ensures that he’s able to land with a club that has a good shot at making the postseason.
Minnesota would fit that bill. The Twins have been in second place in the AL Central and holding onto an AL Wild Card spot for most of the season. At 63-50, the Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the division, but they’re also hosting the Guardians for a four-game set this weekend that would shake up the top of the division if Minnesota can manage a sweep. (They’re currently leading the Guards in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader.)
Hill is no stranger to the Twins organization, having pitched there during the shortened 2020 season. Injuries limited him to eight starts, but he posted a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 innings as a Twin and reached the postseason that year. Bradford spoke to a scout who was at Hill’s showcase this morning, noting that the lefty threw more than 100 pitches and looked “impressive” (X link). Hill himself tells Bradford that he believes he’s built up to the point where he’s ready to go throw five or six innings in a start right now (video link).
Hill isn’t the only reinforcement the Twins are pondering, though second alternative is nearly half Hill’s age. Top prospect Zebby Matthews has skyrocketed up prospect rankings this season on the back of a dominant showing in High-A and Double-A. He was recently bumped up to Triple-A St. Paul, and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey confirmed to the Twins beat that Matthews is under consideration for a promotion to the majors.
“I think Zebby’s definitely in the conversation,” Falvey said this afternoon (X link via KSTP’s Darren Wolfson). “Obviously, he’s pitched exceptionally well for the whole year all the way through levels he’s been at. He’s now at Triple-A and knocking on the door. With the injuries we have, he’s certainly in the conversation. As we think about the needs for next week, he’s certainly a name that we’re talking about.”
Matthews, the Twins’ eighth-round pick in 2022, already looks like a nice find for the organization. The right-hander posted sub-2.00 ERAs in both High-A and Double-A before his recent promotion to Triple-A. He’s had two solid starts and two rough starts at the top minor league level. Collectively, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA with an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and a staggering 1.8% walk rate. Matthews has fanned a hefty 114 opponents and issued just seven walks all season.
Matthews has ridden that breakout season all the way to the No. 61 spot on Baseball America’s recent update to their top 100 prospects, where they note that Matthews has perhaps the best command in minor league baseball. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranks Matthews 60th in the sport, and MLB.com has him as their No. 100 prospect.
Falvey also added that the aforementioned Paddack is still expected back this season. He’s “tracking really well,” per the Twins’ baseball ops leader (X link via The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) and could begin a throwing program in the near future. Paddack has had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, at times looking dominant and others looking fatigued in his first full season back from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He’s twice punched out 10 hitters in a game and allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 17 starts. However, he’s also had starts where he’s been rocked for seven runs and nine runs, leading to a 4.99 ERA on the season.
Paddack’s 88 1/3 innings this season are already more than his combined total from 2022-23 while he underwent and rehabbed from that Tommy John procedure. Nevertheless, the Twins plan to use him as a starter when he’s ready to return, per Falvey. There’s no clear timetable for that yet, but if he can begin a throwing progression soon, a return sometime next month seems feasible. Paddack last pitched on July 14 and has been out since with a forearm strain.