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AL Injury Notes: Anderson, Tigers, Odorizzi, Chapman

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As the injury bug continues to bite the White Sox, Tim Anderson is at least nearing a return.  Manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that Anderson is scheduled to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Anderson suffered a groin strain in Chicago’s May 29 game, and at the time, La Russa estimated the star shortstop would need about three weeks of recovery time.  This rehab assignment would seemingly put Anderson right on track to match or even beat that projection.

The South Side would love to have Anderson back as soon as possible, given how he was on pace for possibly the best season of his already-standout career.  Anderson hit .356/.393/.503 with five home runs over his first 173 plate appearances, plus a perfect 8-for-8 mark in stealing bases.  With Eloy Jimenez still on the IL and Yasmani Grandal now nursing a sore hamstring, Anderson’s return is a much-needed boost for a struggling White Sox lineup.

More injury updates from around the American League…

  • Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that Tyler Alexander (elbow sprain) could be activated from the 15-day IL as soon as Tuesday, though the team hasn’t yet decided on Alexander’s next step after the southpaw has seemingly completed his rehab work.  Eduardo Rodriguez (ribcage sprain) was tentatively slated to return from his own rehab assignment this week, but that timeline is now up in the air since Rodriguez is away on a personal matter.  Meanwhile, reliever Jose Cisnero (shoulder strain) was about to begin his own rehab assignment but has now been shut down for two weeks due to soreness in his right Achilles tendon.
  • For the first since suffering a lower-leg injury almost a month ago, Jake Odorizzi joined the Astros’ other pitchers in fielding drills today.  Manager Dusty Baker told FOX 26’s Mark Berman (Twitter links) and other reporters that Odorizzi’s return to these drills is “kind of like the final hurdle” in determining the right-hander’s readiness.  The next step is gradually bringing Odorizzi along, as the pitcher told Berman and company that he was going at around “50-60%” in his first workout, and he’ll continue to slowly ramp up.
  • Matt Chapman has missed the Blue Jays’ last two games due to a sore right wrist.  Manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Chapman “couldn’t even pinch-hit today,” though the third baseman is still considered day-to-day with the injury.  Imaging hasn’t yet been done on Chapman’s wrist, which Nicholson-Smith notes is an indication that the Jays believe the injury isn’t too serious.

Blue Jays, Matt Chapman Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays and newly acquired third baseman Matt Chapman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $25MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The deal will buy out Chapman’s final two arbitration seasons but does not extend Toronto’s club control over the two-time Platinum Glover. Chapman, a client of the Boras Corporation, will receive a $1MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $12MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Chapman to earn $9.5MM this coming season, and he would’ve earned one more raise in 2023 before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. Taking into account that $9.5MM projection, Chapman’s $25MM guarantee effectively puts a $14.5MM price on that third-time arbitration salary, which seems well within the realm of plausible outcomes.

The new contract doesn’t change much in terms of Chapman’s outlook, though it gives him some financial security in the event of a major injury or further downturn at the plate. The Jays, meanwhile, get some payroll certainty not only for this season but also in 2023 — and they also avoid a need to dedicate any time or resources to arbitration talks with Chapman next winter.

Acquired last week in a trade that sent prospects Gunnar Hoglund, Kevin Smith, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead to Oakland, Chapman heads to Toronto in search of a return to his 2018-19 MVP-caliber form at the plate. A hip injury in 2020 cut the season short for Chapman and ultimately required surgery. He returned to play a mostly full slate of 151 games in 2021, but while Chapman belted 27 home runs and played his usual brand of premium defense at the hot corner, his overall production at the plate dropped as his strikeout rate rose. It’s certainly possible that the 2019 All-Star simply wasn’t at 100% last season, and he’ll now set out to prove that was the case without needing to spend much time dwelling on his contractual status.

Chapman’s new $12MM salary bumps the Blue Jays’ projected payroll up to about $170MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and it gives them about $190MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. That’ll establish a new franchise-record mark in terms of actual payroll, though the Jays are still about $40MM shy of the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold.

Matt Chapman Rejected 10-Year, $150MM Offer After 2019 Season

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Before hip surgery knocked Matt Chapman out of the 2020 playoffs, the A’s had offered their superstar third baseman a 10-year extension worth $150MM, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. After the hip injury, rejecting that offer was a decision that caused some second-guessing on Chapman’s part. Some two years after Oakland attempted to extend Chapman, the offer exists only as a comparative tool.

Chapman will play out his remaining arbitration seasons in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform. The Jays maintain team control over Chapman for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, after which the Scott Boras client can head to free agency to test open waters. Rosenthal crunched the numbers and found that Chapman will need to essentially sign a six-year, $122MM deal when he reaches free agency to make his decision to reject the extension look like a wise one. That’s doable if he’s able to stay healthy.

On the field, Chapman was healthy again in 2021, and again a Gold Glove Award winner at the hot corner. He ranked tied for fourth among third baseman in defensive runs saved by The Fielding Bible awards in 2021.

His offense, however, didn’t quite return to its previous heights. With a .210/.314/.403 line across 622 plate appearances, Chapman’s 101 wRC+ was the lowest mark of his career, though certainly a respectable enough number when paired with first-rate glovework. Being another season away from hip surgery could help Chapman rebound further in 2022, and playing his home games away from the Coliseum won’t hurt either.

At least for the next two seasons, Toronto should have a productive regular on a short-term, relatively valuable deal. MLBTR’s projected arbitration figure for 2021 is $9.5MM, an exceedingly affordable price of admission to watch Chapman man the hot corner day-in-and-day-out.

He’ll essentially take over for Marcus Semien as the veteran superstar tasked with playing alongside young star Bo Bichette. Chapman’s addition has the additional effect of sliding Cavan Biggio back to the keystone. As good as Chapman has been in the past, he has big shoes to fill after Semien posted near-MVP numbers during his one year in Toronto.

And while Chapman’s personal narrative may, in part, be tied to the measure of team success this version of the Blue Jays is able to achieve, in reality, there are too many individual threads tied to this Toronto team to attribute much of their future success or failure to Chapman alone.

Chapman’s personal narrative – and his future contract negotiations – will tie much more directly to three factors: personal health, on-field performance, and, likely, the shape of the free agent landscape two offseasons from now. As of right now, it would appear likely that the Chapman-Toronto alliance will last for just two seasons before he hits free agency.

A long-term deal can’t be ruled out, of course, but odds are against it. For one, Boras prefers taking his clients to free agency. Second, the Blue Jays have other players (namely, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) who are going to require long-term commitments that will add to a payroll already weighted down with a chunky deals for Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and George Springer. Thirdly, top prospect Orelvis Martinez is quickly rising through the ranks, and he may be ready to take over sooner rather than later.

All that being said, if the feel-good Blue Jays continue to feel good, Chapman may like playing in Toronto. It’s worth wondering, as well, if Chapman’s injury and previous extension rejection will change his feelings about another such offer, should Toronto choose to make one. At worst, the Blue Jays and Chapman have two seasons to enjoy one another’s company. Then we can find out whether Chapman made the right financial decision in rejecting Oakland’s extension offer.

Athletics Trade Matt Chapman To Blue Jays

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Oakland’s rapid sell-off and the Blue Jays’ aggressive offseason both continued Wednesday, as the A’s announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been traded to Toronto in exchange for right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.

Matt Chapman | Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The acquisition of Chapman will give the Blue Jays not only one of the best defensive third basemen in the game but one of the top defensive players in baseball at any position. Since Chapman’s 2017 Major League debut, his 88 Defensive Runs Saved and his 47.3 Ultimate Zone rating both trail only Mookie Betts and Andrelton Simmons among all big leaguers. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric largely agrees, ranking him tenth among all big league players, regardless of position, since 2017. Indeed, Chapman has twice been recognized as the league’s best all-around defender by being named the league’s Platinum Glove winner.

Of course, Chapman is far from a glove-only player. From 2018-19, he was a legitimate MVP candidate on the strength of his combined offensive and defensive prowess. The former No. 25 overall draft pick posted a .263/.348/.507 slash with 60 home runs while playing his home games at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum during those two seasons, finishing Top 7 in American League MVP voting on both occasions.

Chapman’s offensive production has fallen sharply over the past two seasons, due in no small part to a major hip injury in 2020 that he tried to play through before succumbing to surgery. That procedure both repaired a labrum tear and “cleaned up” the head of his right femur bone. Even as his production has dipped, Chapman has still hit for power (37 home runs, .216 ISO) and drawn plenty of walks (11.4%), but his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line.

The Jays are surely betting that Chapman will bounce back to an extent at the plate now that he’ll be 18 months removed from that September 2020 surgery. However, even if he doesn’t return to his MVP-caliber levels from 2018-19, the new three-true-outcomes version of Chapman was still worth 3.5 wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs last season. He’s a pronounced upgrade for a Jays team hoping to make a deep postseason run on the strength of a dominant offense and a rotation that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons.

Chapman’s salary has not yet been settled, as he’s arbitration-eligible and did not settle on a price point with the A’s prior to the lockout. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM this coming season and will be owed one more raise for the 2023 campaign before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. While Jays fans may be looking to Matt Olson’s swift extension following a trade from Oakland to his hometown Braves, it should be pointed out that as a client of the Boras Corporation, Chapman seems less likely to follow that same trajectory. Still, he’ll be locked in as the Toronto third baseman for at least the next two seasons.

Adding Chapman firmly pushes Cavan Biggio to second base, where he’s better suited to play from a defensive standpoint. Chapman’s range will also play nicely alongside Bo Bichette, who has drawn mixed reviews for his glovework at shortstop. Statcast notes that Bichette is much stronger on balls hit to his left side than those hit to his right, so getting some extra range out of their third baseman will be particularly helpful.

It’s worth pointing out that Chapman isn’t an ideal fit for a Toronto lineup that skews almost entirely right-handed. He’d give them eight pure right-handed hitters in the starting lineup, with Biggio the lone lefty. That right-handed lean was part of the reason that a potential Freddie Freeman fit has seemed so tantalizing for the Jays. This acquisition technically doesn’t rule out a Freeman signing, but it does quash any speculation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving back to third base. That’s in the team’s best interest anyhow, as Guerrero was never a strong defensive option at the hot corner. A theoretical Freeman addition would push Guerrero into a primary designated hitter role earlier in his career than the Jays might’ve liked, but the sheer offensive firepower of that lineup would still make it worth considering. Toronto had been linked to Kyle Schwarber, but he’s now Philadelphia-bound after agreeing to a four-year deal with the Phillies.

Turning the Oakland’s return, they’ll acquire one high-end but far-off pitching prospect, Hoglund, and a trio of largely MLB-ready pieces in Smith, Logue and Snead. Hoglund was the No. 19 overall draft pick in 2021 and might well have gone in the Top 10 selections had he not required Tommy John surgery during last year’s NCAA season. The former Ole Miss ace was largely regarded as one of the top college arms in the draft after pitching to a 2.41 ERA with a sky-high 39% strikeout rate against a strong 6.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranked him fifth among Toronto farmhands, while FanGraphs pegged him No. 3 in the Toronto system. Much of Hoglund’s future depends on how he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he’d been described as an advanced college arm with mid-rotation upside and a potential quick path to the big leagues.

Smith, 25, ought to step right into the Athletics’ Opening Day lineup. He went just 3-for-32 in a brief big league cup of coffee late in the 2021 season, but that’s overshadowed by a big .285/.370/.561 batting line in Triple-A last year. Smith, ranked seventh among Jays prospects at BA and 16th at FanGraphs, smacked 21 home runs, 27 doubles and four triples while also going 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts in that outstanding Triple-A campaign. BA ranked him as the game’s No. 91 prospect in the 2018-19 offseason, and while a poor first showing in Triple-A dropped his stock, last year’s excellent rebound restored a good bit of faith in his abilities.

Kevin Smith | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Jays played Smith primarily at shortstop during his time in Triple-A, but he also has 651 professional innings at third base and 161 innings of work at second base. Scouting reports peg him as a capable but not-elite defender at short. Given the presence of all-world defensive prospect Nick Allen in the upper tiers of the Oakland system, it seems quite possible that Smith’s eventual home with the A’s will be either third base or second base.

As for the two pitchers, Logue has a chance to be in the Oakland rotation before long. The 25-year-old (26 in April) was Toronto’s ninth-round pick in 2017 and has greatly elevated his status, thanks in part to a nice showing between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. In 125 innings between the two levels, Logue notched a 3.67 ERA with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate, an even better 5.3% walk rate and a 38% ground-ball rate. That he’s a fly-ball pitcher moving to Oakland as opposed to Toronto’s more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre can only help his chances of becoming a quality big league contributor.

Logue ranked 24th among Jays prospects at BA, where he was labeled one of the system’s “most improved” players in 2021 and touted as a potential back-end starter. FanGraphs tabbed him 10th in the Toronto system, praising his plus changeup, plus command and above-average cutter. Scouting reports generally don’t peg Logue as more than a fourth starter, but if he’s able to realize that potential, there’s quite a bit of value in six-plus seasons of a No. 4 starter.

Snead, 27, gives the A’s an MLB-ready bullpen piece who made his big league debut late in the ’21 season. Snead allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through his first 7 2/3 big league innings last year. That marked the continuation of an excellent season in Triple-A, where he’d notched a 1.58 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and a massive 63.3% ground-ball rate.

Unlike many lefties, Snead has no issues containing right-handed opponents in 2021. While he was still better against left-handers, who posted an awful .141/.222/.203 against him (Majors and Triple-A combined), right-handers were similarly futile. Even when batters held the platoon advantage, they mustered only a .186/.278/.245 output against Snead. He’s been a pure reliever throughout his professional career, but that dominance against both righties and lefties mitigates any specialist concerns and gives him the chance to be a multi-inning option. Snead has pitched 236 1/3 innings through 186 minor league appearances, so he’s no stranger to working more than an inning at a time.

The trade of an All-Star third baseman to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of three largely MLB-ready pieces and one further-off but high-upside prospect will do little to quell comparisons to the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. That trade, which brought Franklin Barreto, Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin to Oakland, didn’t pan out as the front office hoped, but today’s swap is a separate deal, eerie similarities notwithstanding. The A’s have added a notable influx of talent to their system, and the Chapman return in particular features the largest crop of MLB-ready talent they’ve picked up thus far in their offseason dealings.

The Chapman trade marks the latest step in the dismantling of a roster that was largely foreseeable but is nevertheless disheartening for the fanbase. Chapman follows fan favorites Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, and it’s unlikely Oakland will stop its roster purge with those three. Lefty Sean Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, seems all but certain to be traded. Right-hander Frankie Montas, center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino all have multiple seasons of club control remaining but still could change hands. Montas, in particular, has been a target for pitching-hungry clubs. Looking ahead, it’s not really a question of whether any of those players will be traded — but rather one of who’ll be the next to go.

Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement was in place. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Oakland’s return for Chapman (Twitter link).

Rays Among Teams Interested In Matt Chapman, Seiya Suzuki

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The Rays are among the teams with interest in Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and they’re also one of the teams still bidding on star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears the same, adding that Tampa Bay has also spoken to Oakland about right-hander Frankie Montas.

Either of the two bats listed would represent large-scale expenditures, at least by the Rays’ generally modest standards. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9.5MM salary for Chapman this season, and he’d be eligible for arbitration one final time next offseason before reaching the open market upon conclusion of the 2023 season. Suzuki, meanwhile, is drawing interest from a wide field of teams and figures to command a weighty multi-year deal himself.

The 28-year-old Chapman’s offensive production has taken a nosedive in recent years after a pair of MVP-caliber seasons in 2018-19. Since Opening Day 2020, Chapman has managed a .215/.306/.431 batting line, still showing good power (.216 ISO, 37 homers in 774 plate appearances) but with an alarming jump from a 22.8% strikeout rate to a 33.1% mark. Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by hip surgery, though, and it’s possible that the injury which led to that operation and the lingering aftereffects have hampered him at the dish.

Where Chapman hasn’t missed a beat is with the glove. A two-time Platinum Glove winner and three-time Gold Glover at the hot corner, Chapman is widely regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport. His 78 Defensive Runs Saved since debuting in 2017 are the third-most in baseball, at any position, trailing only Mookie Betts (81) and Andrelton Simmons (79). Chapman ranks third in MLB in Ultimate Zone Rating during that time as well, trailing that same pair. Meanwhile, Statcast ranks him 10th among all big leaguers with 49 Outs Above Average in that same time.

As for Suzuki, he’s been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will head to the Majors in the midst of his prime, at age 27. Suzuki is generally regarded as one of the best players in Japan at the moment, if not the best overall. He turned in a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.

Rays fans may be a bit skeptical after seeing their team’s two-year, $12MM investment in Yoshi Tsutsugo quickly go south. However, Suzuki is younger and far more highly regarded as a player than Tsutsugo was at the time of his own free-agent foray. Even in NPB, Tsutsugo came with considerable strikeout concerns and minimal defensive value. The variance in opinions seems likely to be reflected in the size of contract Suzuki ultimately commands. Prior to Suzuki’s formal posting, multiple team evaluators told MLBTR that Suzuki could be an everyday corner outfielder in the big leagues. One particularly bullish evaluator called Suzuki the best player to come out of Japan since Shohei Ohtani (not a direct comparison between the two, to be clear).

Looking to Montas, he’d give the Rays a big-time arm to plug into a rotation that looks heavily reliant on younger talent. Tampa Bay is hoping for a bounceback from Ryan Yarbrough and better health from offseason signee Corey Kluber, but the group beyond that pairing consists of Yonny Chirinos (returning from Tommy John surgery), Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. It’s an undeniably talented collection of starters, but Montas would provide some more stability and arguably more upside than some of those current options.

The 28-year-old (29 next week) just wrapped up a 2021 season that saw him post a career-high 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. Projected by Swartz to earn $5.8MM next season, Montas is controlled through 2023 and is one of many players the rebuilding A’s are open to moving. He missed the second half of the 2019 season while serving an 80-game PED suspension and struggled in his 2020 return, but last year’s standout showing netted Montas a sixth-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. Unlike Chapman and Suzuki, his current salary is a bit more in the Rays’ general wheelhouse.

Ultimately, though, the payroll is going to be pivotal in determining just how big the Rays can go. Tampa Bay is currently projected for an $85.4MM Opening Day mark that would represent a new franchise record. That said, there have also been reports about possible trades of Kevin Kiermaier ($12MM salary), Austin Meadows (projected $4.3MM) and/or Tyler Glasnow (projected $5.8MM — any of which could alter the team’s immediate and 2023 financial outlooks. Glasnow, notably, is expected to miss most of the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Phillies Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Phillies have shown interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but unsurprisingly, the Athletics have put a big price tag on the Gold Glover.  In exchange for Chapman, Oakland is asking for one of the Phillies’ top prospects as the centerpiece of a trade package, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, with such names as shortstop Bryson Stott or right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter mentioned as the caliber of prospect the Athletics would have in mind.

Since Philadelphia’s farm system is short on premium talent, naturally the “Phillies have been reluctant to” part with any of their best youngsters in a Chapman deal, Coffey writes.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a long history of trading quality minor league talent for proven big leaguers, however, and it is possible that giving up another blue-chip prospect would simply be the necessary cost to pry Chapman away from the A’s.

While the Athletics’ payroll-cutting endeavors have already begun with tonight’s Chris Bassitt trade with the Mets (a Phillies NL East rival, no less), Billy Beane’s front office isn’t going to move Chapman for pure salary-dump purposes.  At his best, Chapman has shown he is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining consistently superb third base defense with some big offensive numbers, particularly in 2018 and 2019.  Over the last two years, however, Chapman’s average and OBP totals have dropped off, while his strikeouts have ballooned — Chapman’s 33.1% strikeout rate is the third-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season.

The Phillies and other trade suitors (the Yankees and Mariners have been linked to Chapman earlier this winter) could use this downturn to try and negotiate a lesser trade return for the third baseman, yet that tactic might not work given the amount of interest in his services.  Chapman is projected for a $9.5MM salary in 2022 and also has another arbitration year remaining in 2023, with that extra control only adding to the Athletics’ high asking price.

Alec Bohm (himself a former top prospect) is penciled into Philadelphia’s third base role for Opening Day, though Bohm’s defensive struggles have already led to speculation that a position change could be in his future.  Bohm’s lack of production at the plate in 2021 also didn’t help his cause, even if countless players have dealt with the so-called sophomore slump.  Theoretically, the Phillies could acquire Chapman and then move Bohm across the diamond into a first base/DH split with Rhys Hoskins, though such a move would then lock up the Phils’ DH spot.

Stott is also a factor in the team’s infield plans, as the 14th overall pick of the 2019 draft has been viewed as a candidate to both make his MLB debut in 2022, and also immediately step into a regular role.  This could be as a shortstop if Didi Gregorius is traded, perhaps at second base if the Phillies opted to instead deal Jean Segura, or maybe even at the hot corner, if the Phillies decide to switch Bohm’s position even without acquiring a proven veteran like Chapman.  While the Phillies surely also prize Abel and Painter, it would seem on paper that Stott might be the most untouchable of the trio, given Stott’s importance to Philadelphia’s infield plans.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Mariners Rumors: Chapman, Marte, Trammell, Rotation

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The Mariners’ interest in division-rival third baseman (and noted trade candidate) Matt Chapman isn’t exactly a new revelation, but even as the Athletics prepare for what looks to be a significant sell-off/payroll reduction, they’re still aiming high in trade talks. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times cites multiple sources who believe the A’s would ask that the Mariners include top infield prospect Noelvi Marte as a headline piece in any deal involving Chapman, who is controlled another two years via arbitration.

Baseball America ranked Marte as the sport’s No. 18 prospect earlier this week, and it’s not hard to see why; Marte played the 2021 season as a 19-year-old against much older competition but nevertheless slashed a combined .273/.366/.460 with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases between two Class-A levels. Drawing praise for his blend of raw power and speed, Marte has played exclusively at shortstop thus far in his pro career, though he’s been error-prone (6o in 1402 innings) and some scouting reports question whether he might eventually move to third base. The Athletics and other clubs would surely target him in a number of trade scenarios, but it seems unlikely Marte would actually change hands.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already gone on record this offseason to indicate there’s “no scenario” where he’d move the very top names in his farm system. Marte trails uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez on most rankings, he certainly falls under the umbrella alluded to by Dipoto. The A’s could, of course, try to work out a deal centering on another headliner, but if Dipoto was being earnest in his reluctance to trade his system’s very best, an agreement could be hard to piece together.

Some more Mariners notes…

  • In a second piece, Divish looks at three Mariners whose long-term positions with the team aren’t assured: outfielder Taylor Trammell, catcher Luis Torrens and outfielder Jake Fraley. Despite Trammell’s status as a former high draft pick and top prospect, last season’s poor big league debut has dimmed his stock in the eyes of rival scouts. Divish cites one “optimistic” scout from another club who believes Trammell can still be more than a fourth outfielder — but others are more bearish based on his approach at the plate and some poor defensive reads. Similarly, while the Mariners believe Torrens can be a passable or better defender behind the plate, other teams are more skeptical of his glovework. Any of the trio would still have some value on the trade market, but probably not as headline pieces for notable upgrades. Mariners fans, in particular, will want to check out both Divish columns for some scouting quotes and opinions of several of Seattle’s young players.
  • In his latest mailbag column, The Athletic’s Corey Brock tackles a number of pertinent Mariners topics — including the team’s rotation. Brock suggests that Seattle, needing pitchers who can make an impact out of the gate, was never going to come close to matching the $10MM offer James Paxton received from the Red Sox. Still, the Mariners appear likely to target another arm to add to the rotation — ideally someone who’s more than just a fifth starter to round out the group. The free-agent market has, of course, been largely picked over by this point — with Seattle playing a key part in the pre-lockout signing rush (Robbie Ray). Carlos Rodon stands out as one potential difference-maker who remains in play, though he has not been prominently linked to the Mariners. The trade market figures to have plenty of options, with Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle) and Oakland (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) standing as the two most obvious partners for any team seeking rotation help on the trade market.

Quick Hits: Camden Yards, Blue Jays, Nationals, A’s, Valentine

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The Orioles have called Oriole Park at Camden Yards home for the last 30 seasons, and the team continues to negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority about the ballpark’s future and a lease extension.  “The good news is both the Orioles and the stadium authority feel very strongly that we want to renew this partnership and that it’s been beneficial for all parties — the state, the city, the team,” Orioles senior VP of administration and experience Greg Bader told The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker.  The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards is up in December 2023, though the club can decide by February 1, 2023 whether or not it wants to exercise a one-time, five-year extension that would run through 2028.

Given the mutual interest between the two sides, there doesn’t appear to be any concern that the Orioles would actually leave Baltimore, despite the uncertainty that often surrounds discussions of ballpark leases or renovations.  Bader said the team is looking to upgrade OPACY to match “what a lot of newer or renovated ballparks have in terms of those social spaces, those areas for people to engage with baseball the way that people do today.”  This could include loge seating, outdoor seating or concession areas, or a sportsbook, as “the Orioles are quite interested in finding the right sports gaming partner.”  That said, Bader also stressed that old-school experience of watching a game at Camden Yards (the modern stadium that started the trend towards more retro, baseball-only venues) wouldn’t be significantly altered.  “We’re not looking to upend the traditional side of a baseball park.  We’re very confident that what makes Camden Yards so special would be able to be retained with whatever we do,” Bader said.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Yimi Garcia’s two-year contract represents the Blue Jays’ biggest investment in their bullpen this offseason, and The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm thinks the club might not spend big on any further new relievers.  While relief pitching was a big weakness for much of the Jays’ 2021 campaign, the in-season acquisitions of Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards helped shore up a core group that also includes incumbent closer Jordan Romano and southpaw Tim Mayza.  With other needs yet to be addressed, Chisholm figure the Blue Jays will spend bigger on the lineup and rotation: “keeping the stakes low [in the bullpen] is a logical approach so the larger bets can be saved for other areas.”
  • In the latest edition of the Rates & Barrels podcast, The Athletic’s Derek VanRiper, Britt Ghiroli, and Eno Sarris discuss a variety of topics, including the Nationals’ struggles in player development, some hypothetical trade fits involving the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Mets, and the concept of Matt Chapman moving from third base to shortstop.
  • Former Mets manager Bobby Valentine has received some consideration as a special assistant within the front office, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma.  It isn’t known whether Valentine is himself interested in such a role, as Valentine hasn’t been officially involved with a big league club since the Red Sox fired him as manager following the 2012 season.  Valentine both played with the Mets in 1977-78 and then posted a 536-467 record while managing the club from 1996-2002, leading the Mets to the National League pennant in 2000.

Yankees Have Reportedly Considered Matt Chapman As Part Of Shortstop Search

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There are still various paths the Yankees’ search for shortstop help could take, and the organization has at least given some thought to a potential out-of-the-box solution. In an appearance on the Michael Kay Show this week, Buster Olney of ESPN said the Yankees “have talked a little bit…internally” about the possibility of acquiring A’s third baseman Matt Chapman with an eye towards moving him to shortstop.

All teams kick around outside-the-box possibilities to address areas of the roster, of course. That the front office has considered Chapman as a shortstop option doesn’t inherently mean they’re preparing for an all-out run at the Oakland third bagger coming out of the transactions freeze. Yet the idea sheds some light on the Bronx Bombers’ potential willingness to bolster the position in an atypical manner.

Chapman has played ten innings at shortstop as a big leaguer, starting one game there in 2020. Otherwise, he’s played exclusively at the hot corner, where he’s among the game’s top defenders. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have both given Chapman glowing reviews for his glovework throughout his career. Since Chapman made his big league debut in 2017, no third baseman has topped his +78 run mark from DRS. Only Nolan Arenado, at +71, is even in the same stratosphere; no one else is above +28. By measure of OAA, Chapman’s second at the position at +48 plays, with only Arenado rated more highly.

There’d be some risk in switching Chapman off a position at which he’s been so excellent. Yet it’s also easy to see why a team may give the idea some thought, since essentially no other third baseman can match Chapman’s glove and elite arm strength. Moves up the defensive spectrum are infrequent but not completely unheard of. The Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa, another reported player of interest to the Yankees, slid from third base to shortstop last season after a couple years of plus glovework at third. His defensive ratings at shortstop were mixed; DRS thought Kiner-Falefa was well above-average, while Statcast panned his work there.

The A’s are generally expected to make a few key players available in trade coming out of the lockout. Oakland is reportedly looking to trim payroll, and Chapman — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.5MM salary in his penultimate season of arbitration — is among the costlier players on the roster. The A’s would be able to bring in a strong return for the 28-year-old based on the quality of his glove alone, but potential acquiring teams will also have to determine whether they believe he can regain his best form at the plate.

After combining for a .263/.348/.507 line between 2018-19, Chapman owns a .215/.306/.431 mark since the start of 2020. He’s seen a spike in swing-and-miss over the past couple seasons, striking out at the sixth-highest rate (33.1%) among players with 500+ plate appearances in that time. A right hip injury that necessitated September 2020 surgery could partially explain those struggles, but Chapman continued to whiff at an alarming rate throughout the 2021 campaign even as he’s gotten further removed from that procedure.

Of course, the Yankees could consider more traditional solutions to address their shortstop need. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain available on the free agent market, but reports have suggested New York may not want to make that kind of long-term investment with prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe nearing big league readiness. New York could turn to other stopgap options via free agency or trade. Players like Kiner-Falefa or Nick Ahmed may be available and would cost less prospect capital than Chapman would, albeit without comparable on-field upside. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would likely be the top shortstop option in the Bronx but he could kick back over to third base if the Yankees address the position externally.

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