Tigers Name Gary Jones First Base Coach
The Tigers announced Thursday that they’ve promoted Triple-A manager Gary Jones to the Major League staff, where he’ll serve as the team’s new first base coach. The promotion comes in the wake of the tragic death of Detroit first base coach Kimera Bartee, passed away at just 49 years of age earlier this offseason due to a brain tumor.
Jones, 61, assumes his new role under unenviable circumstances, but he’ll bring a wealth of prior coaching and managerial experience to the position. He’s spent more than three decades in professional baseball, serving as a minor league skipper with the A’s, Red Sox and Padres — where he also worked as a minor league coordinator for nearly a decade. Jones was also Oakland’s first base coach back in 1998. He also served as the Cubs’ third-base coach from 2014-17, meaning he’s no stranger to newly signed shortstop Javier Baez or to third baseman Jeimer Candelario — who debuted with the Cubs in 2016-17 before being traded to Detroit at the ’17 deadline.
Jones joins third base coach Ramon Santiago, bench coach George Lombard, hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh, assistant hitting coach Mike Hessman, pitching coach Chris Fetter, assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves and quality control coach Josh Paul in rounding out manager A.J. Hinch’s staff for the upcoming season.
Jones’ ascension to the Major League staff left a vacancy with the Triple-A Toledo MudHens, but they’ve also filled that role with a very familiar name: Lloyd McClendon. The 63-year-old McClendon managed the MudHens back in 2016, but he’s best known for his time as the big league manager with the Pirates (2001-05), Mariners (2014-15) and his stint as the Tigers’ interim manager late in the 2020 season, following Ron Gardenhire’s retirement.
McClendon also has 16 years of Major League coaching experience — most of it coming with the Tigers organization. He’s previously held the roles of bullpen coach, hitting coach and bench coach with the Tigers, working alongside managers Jim Leyland, Brad Ausmus and Gardenhire.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Wednesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Kenta Maeda Aiming For September Return From Tommy John Surgery
It’s been nearly five months since Twins righty Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, and while a September Tommy John procedure often wipes out the following season for a pitcher, Maeda recently told reporters in Japan that he’s aiming for a return this September (link via The Manichi). At present, his recovery appears to be on track, as Maeda revealed he’ll begin playing catch sometime in mid-February.
Maeda, 33, struggled through groin and elbow injuries last season before ultimately going under the knife on Sept. 1. He had an internal brace put into his elbow, which manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time of the surgery could help to expedite the righty’s recovery. There’s obviously a long way to go before it’s clear whether a 2022 return is an actual possibility, but Maeda says it’s “not a zero percent chance” that he can return late in the year.
Acquired in a 2019-20 offseason trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, Maeda was nothing short of brilliant in his first season with Minnesota. The 2020 campaign, of course, was shortened to a 60-game slate, but Maeda made 11 starts and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. That season saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (32.3%), walk percentage (4.0%), ground-ball rate (49.0%), swinging-strike rate (17.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (40.8%).
This past season was another story entirely. Maeda made 21 starts but tallied just 106 1/3 innings with solid but diminished strikeout and walk rates (24.9% and 7.1%, respectively). His fastball velocity dipped by about a mile per hour, and the elite hard-contact suppression he showed in 2020 trended back toward league-average levels. Along the way, Maeda had multiple IL stints and was the subject of some trade-deadline chatter before finally requiring surgery.
Even though Maeda wasn’t at his best in that injury-plagued 2021 campaign, his absence will nevertheless be felt by a Twins team that still has a dire need for starting pitching. It’s doubtful that Maeda’s surgery would’ve altered the decision to trade Jose Berrios to Toronto in return for a pair of highly touted prospects, but the Twins surely thought they’d have Maeda leading their 2022 staff at the time that deal was made.
Instead, Minnesota entered the offseason knowing that Maeda and Berrios were out of the picture — and also recognizing the possibility of free agent Michael Pineda signing elsewhere. Despite the glaring nature of that rotation deficiency, they’ve yet to really address the matter. Minnesota took a $5MM flier on right-hander Dylan Bundy, hoping they’ll be able to get something closer to the former Orioles/Angels hurler’s 2020 results than his 2021 output, but that’s the lone move the team has made to deepen the staff.
Bundy will join a rotation that should include towering right-hander Bailey Ober, who quietly posted a solid rookie season with a downtrodden Twins club in 2021. Rookie Joe Ryan, an Olympian with Team USA and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, had a strong September debut with the Twins and looks all but assured a spot as well. Baseball America rated him among the game’s Top 100 prospects just last week.
That said, the Twins sat out the free-agent market for virtually all of the top names — barring Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, who remain unsigned — and will now likely turn to the trade market and/or add another veteran from the lower tiers of the market. (There was some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion late in the season.) Getting Maeda back into the fold in September would be a boon, but for a team whose owner plainly stated the club would not rebuild after a disappointing 2021 season, the lack of activity to date has been rather surprising.
MLB, MLBPA Discuss Potential Bonus Pool For Pre-Arbitration Players, Changes To League-Minimum Salary
7:54 pm: According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the proposed pool system could allow players to increase their salaries by as much as 385% depending upon their WAR totals and placement in awards voting. He adds that under this system, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India would be in line for a $1.193MM salary despite not yet being arbitration eligible.
3:31 pm: After weeks of silence between the two parties, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association met today for a second straight day as they work toward a new collective bargaining agreement. While an agreement is not believed to be anywhere close, there’s at least been some semblance of headway in talks (though the extent of that progress is debatable).
For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the MLBPA had sought to raise the minimum salary from $570,500 to $775,000 — but MLB had countered with a proposal for a $600K minimum. (For context, the minimum salary has risen between $7-10K in each of the past several seasons anyhow.) The league today moved that offer forward a bit further, offering a $615K minimum salary for players with less than one year of Major League service time, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
Of course, the value of that “concession” is rather subjective. As Travis Sawchik of The Score observes, in order to keep up with inflation, the league would’ve needed to push the minimum salary to $650K just to match the minimum salary from the start of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Viewed through that lens, the league’s offer could actually be seen as a step back. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich adds that the minimum salary for players with one to two years of service would be $650K under the current proposal, while players with between two and three years would receive at least a $700K salary.
Interestingly, Sawchik reports that MLB proposed fixed salaries at those league minimum figures for players in each service bucket. While players would presumably still be free to sign early-career contract extensions, that would eliminate the system of teams renewing contracts for pre-arbitration players at amounts slightly higher than the league minimum. As one recent example, the Mets offered Pete Alonso a salary a bit north of $650K in 2020 (nearly $100K more than that year’s league minimum) as a reward for his Rookie of the Year-winning 2019 campaign. Under MLB’s proposal, that kind of deal would no longer be permitted.
Janes adds that the league has also dropped proposed scenarios that would alter the arbitration system and eliminate Super Two status — a designation that allows some players to reach arbitration a year early. Shrinking the number of players who can reach arbitration seems like something that would’ve been a non-starter for the MLBPA anyhow, so as with the incremental increases to the minimum salary, taking that component off the table doesn’t feel like much of a step back.
More interestingly, Major League Baseball agreed to the MLBPA’s proposal for a bonus pool, funded by central revenues, to reward pre-arbitration players (Twitter link via Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal). Pre-arb players would be in line for bonuses based both on Awards voting and on reaching certain Wins Above Replacement markers, Janes notes.
That figures to present its own levels of complication, as there are multiple versions of Wins Above Replacement. Beyond needing to agree on which form of WAR to set as the standard, the concept isn’t likely to sit well with the proprietors of those metrics. Baseball-Reference’s Sean Forman has already taken to Twitter to explain how uncomfortable he is with the notion of players being assigned millions of dollars based on a metric that is constantly undergoing slight tweaks to keep up with changes in the game (his Twitter thread on the matter is well worth a full read). Additionally, as Sports Illustrated’s Emma Baccellieri points out (Twitter link), there are some obvious potential conflicts of interest in tying pre-arb bonuses to awards voting that is conducted by the media members who cover those players.
For this bonus structure to work, the two sides would need to agree on the particulars of the bonus pool — and it does not appear as though they’re remotely close to doing so. While it’s promising, to an extent, that MLB was at least amenable to the union’s proposed framework, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that the MLBPA proposed a $105MM pool from which to reward those players. Not surprisingly, the league balked at that figure and countered with a $10MM pool — a figure at which players surely scoffed. Large as that gap may be, the mere fact that MLB is open to the concept clears the admittedly low bar set to declare progress in these talks.
It bears repeating that elements such as the minimum salary, arbitration and this newly conceptualized bonus pool for pre-arbitration players are all merely pieces of what is a much larger puzzle. The league’s larger priorities still include, perhaps most notably, the expansion of the playoff field — an endgame that would dramatically increase television and gate revenues at the most lucrative point in the MLB schedule. Players, meanwhile, have sought changes to a service-time structure that incentivizes teams to keep prospects in the minors longer than would otherwise be the case, a marked increase in the competitive balance (luxury) tax threshold, and measures to eliminate the incentives for teams to tank — among many other elements.
Suffice it to say, while it’s refreshing to hear of any progress, however slight, between the league and the union — it remains abundantly clear that major headway still needs to be made if Spring Training is to begin in mid-February, as currently scheduled. Most have suggested that a deal would need to be reached by Feb. 1 in order for that outcome.
The greatest concern is that any lack of accord between league and union will ultimately result in some portion of regular-season games being wiped out. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Drellich both suggested last night that Major League Baseball on Monday expressed a willingness to go down that road, if necessary, though the loss of regular-season games still figures to be a last resort and a worst-case scenario on all sides. There’s certainly a middle ground, where Spring Training could perhaps begin in late February or early March, paving the way for a truncated exhibition season and a full 162-game slate.
Whenever an agreement is reached, the league will also need to lift the current transaction freeze, sending front offices and player representatives alike into a frenzy to get the remaining group of unsigned free agents into Spring Training camps as quickly as possible and to resolve any outstanding arbitration cases. Front offices will need to work with fervor to complete any trades or other offseason dealings in an expedited fashion. The longer it takes for the league and union to strike a deal, the more hectic the aftermath of that agreement will be.
Cubs, Eric Yardley Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league pact with free-agent right-hander Eric Yardley, per the team’s official transactions log. The former Padres and Brewers hurler, a client of CAA Baseball, was placed on outright waivers in late October and opted to become a minor league free agent after going unclaimed.
Yardley, 31, is a submariner with a massive ground-ball rate. He had some success in fairly brief stints with the Padres and Brewers in 2019-20 before being roughed up with Milwaukee this past season. In 35 innings from 2019-20, Yardley notched a 1.80 ERA (with a much larger 4.13 SIERA) and a sky-high 62.3% grounder rate. His 17.4% strikeout rate in that stretch was well below the league average, however, and Yardley’s 8.7% walk rate was solid but unspectacular.
In 2021, however, Yardley’s 87 mph sinker and 73 mph slider weren’t fooling opponents. His 3.8% swinging-strike rate was the lowest mark of any pitcher in MLB with at least 10 innings thrown, as was his 5.6% strikeout rate. Yardley still recorded a huge 58.6% ground-ball rate in 18 2/3 innings, but he also allowed three homers (1.45 HR/9) and allowed more free bases (ten walks, three hit batters) than strikeouts recorded (five).
All but three of Yardley’s 507 professional appearances have come in relief, so he’ll give the Cubs some bullpen depth to stash in Triple-A Iowa if he doesn’t win a roster spot this spring. He’s spent parts of five prior seasons at the Triple-A level, pitching to a 3.17 ERA in 184 1/3 innings with a 17.8% strikeout rate, a 5.7% walk rate and an excellent 60% ground-ball rate. Yardley has a pair of minor league options remaining, so if the Cubs add him to the big league roster at any point, they’ll be able to shuttle him between Iowa and Chicago without needing to pass him through waivers.
Angels, Daniel Ponce De Leon Agree To Minor League Deal
The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, per the team’s official transactions log. Because the former Cardinals swingman was released in September and did not return to a big league roster before season’s end, he qualified as a minor league free agent who can sign during the lockout. Ponce de Leon is repped by Paragon Sports.
Now 30 years old, Ponce de Leon had a promising start to his big league career, turning in a 3.31 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 11.6% walk rate and 40.7% ground-ball rate through his first 81 2/3 frames with the Cards from 2018-19. The free passes were a bit too frequent, but Ponce de Leon combated that trend with a penchant for inducing weak contact (87.2 mph exit velocity and 27.6% hard-hit rate, via Statcast).
Things took a turn for the worse in 2020, however. Ponce de Leon saw a big uptick in strikeouts (31.5%) but also saw his walk rate balloon to 14%. He was also torched for eight home runs in 32 2/3 innings that season — the same combined number he’d yielded through his first 81 2/3 career innings. He was unable to right the ship in 2021, as the pronounced increase in hard-hit balls by his opponents continued — all while his strikeout rate plummeted to a career-worst 15.4%.
All told, Ponce de Leon has followed up that promising 2018-19 showing with 66 innings of 5.59 ERA ball. He’s fanned 22.9% of opponents against a 14% walk rate and allowed 1.77 homers per nine innings pitched across the past two seasons. The right-hander’s average fastball still clocks in at 93.4 mph — the same mark at which it’s landed in each of his four MLB seasons — and he has a sterling track record in Triple-A. Through 218 2/3 innings at that level, Ponce de Leon carries a 2.39 ERA with a 230-to-114 K/BB ratio. Free passes have always been something of an issue, but he’ll give the Angels some depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
With the Angels, Ponce de Leon won’t be considered a candidate to crack the rotation unless there are multiple injuries that decimate the team’s depth. He’s behind Shohei Ohtani, Noah Syndergaard, Patrick Sandoval, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and several other starting candidates on the depth chart. That said, it’s certainly possible that with a strong showing this spring, he could crack the roster as a long reliever/swingman — similar to the role he held for the past four seasons in St. Louis. He’s out of minor league options, so if Ponce de Leon is added to the 40-man roster at any point, he’d need to be exposed to waivers before he could potentially be sent back to Triple-A.
Mariners Rumors: Chapman, Marte, Trammell, Rotation
The Mariners’ interest in division-rival third baseman (and noted trade candidate) Matt Chapman isn’t exactly a new revelation, but even as the Athletics prepare for what looks to be a significant sell-off/payroll reduction, they’re still aiming high in trade talks. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times cites multiple sources who believe the A’s would ask that the Mariners include top infield prospect Noelvi Marte as a headline piece in any deal involving Chapman, who is controlled another two years via arbitration.
Baseball America ranked Marte as the sport’s No. 18 prospect earlier this week, and it’s not hard to see why; Marte played the 2021 season as a 19-year-old against much older competition but nevertheless slashed a combined .273/.366/.460 with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases between two Class-A levels. Drawing praise for his blend of raw power and speed, Marte has played exclusively at shortstop thus far in his pro career, though he’s been error-prone (6o in 1402 innings) and some scouting reports question whether he might eventually move to third base. The Athletics and other clubs would surely target him in a number of trade scenarios, but it seems unlikely Marte would actually change hands.
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already gone on record this offseason to indicate there’s “no scenario” where he’d move the very top names in his farm system. Marte trails uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez on most rankings, he certainly falls under the umbrella alluded to by Dipoto. The A’s could, of course, try to work out a deal centering on another headliner, but if Dipoto was being earnest in his reluctance to trade his system’s very best, an agreement could be hard to piece together.
Some more Mariners notes…
- In a second piece, Divish looks at three Mariners whose long-term positions with the team aren’t assured: outfielder Taylor Trammell, catcher Luis Torrens and outfielder Jake Fraley. Despite Trammell’s status as a former high draft pick and top prospect, last season’s poor big league debut has dimmed his stock in the eyes of rival scouts. Divish cites one “optimistic” scout from another club who believes Trammell can still be more than a fourth outfielder — but others are more bearish based on his approach at the plate and some poor defensive reads. Similarly, while the Mariners believe Torrens can be a passable or better defender behind the plate, other teams are more skeptical of his glovework. Any of the trio would still have some value on the trade market, but probably not as headline pieces for notable upgrades. Mariners fans, in particular, will want to check out both Divish columns for some scouting quotes and opinions of several of Seattle’s young players.
- In his latest mailbag column, The Athletic’s Corey Brock tackles a number of pertinent Mariners topics — including the team’s rotation. Brock suggests that Seattle, needing pitchers who can make an impact out of the gate, was never going to come close to matching the $10MM offer James Paxton received from the Red Sox. Still, the Mariners appear likely to target another arm to add to the rotation — ideally someone who’s more than just a fifth starter to round out the group. The free-agent market has, of course, been largely picked over by this point — with Seattle playing a key part in the pre-lockout signing rush (Robbie Ray). Carlos Rodon stands out as one potential difference-maker who remains in play, though he has not been prominently linked to the Mariners. The trade market figures to have plenty of options, with Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle) and Oakland (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) standing as the two most obvious partners for any team seeking rotation help on the trade market.
Diamondbacks Sign Juan Centeno To Minor League Deal
The D-backs have signed veteran catcher Juan Centeno to a minor league contract for the 2022 season, per an announcement from their Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces (Twitter link). The MAS+ client will give Arizona some additional depth in the upper minors this season. Centeno spent the 2021 season with the Tigers’ Triple-A club but was never added to the big league roster, making him a minor league free agent who is eligible to sign during the ongoing lockout.
Centeno, 32, has played in parts of seven Major League seasons, most recently logging time with the 2019 Red Sox. He’s a career .223/.278/.323 hitter in 373 trips to the plate at the big league level, although the only time he’s seen much in the way of significant MLB exposure was with the Twins back in 2016. That season saw Centeno log 192 plate appearances while slashing a respectable .261/.312/.392 as the most oft-used backup to Kurt Suzuki. In addition to his time with the Twins and Red Sox, Centeno has seen brief stints with the Mets, Brewers, Astros and Rangers.
While Centeno’s MLB experience is fairly limited, he’s no stranger to Triple-A ball, where he’s spent parts of eight seasons since being selected by the Mets in the 32nd round of the 2007 draft. A career .278/.328/.353 hitter at that level, he’ll give the D-backs some experience to draw upon if a need arises. Centeno also possesses a career 35% caught-stealing rate (big leagues and minors combined), though it’s just 13% in his relatively tiny sample of MLB work.
Even before adding Centeno, the D-backs already had a fair bit of catching depth on the roster and slated to head to camp on non-roster deals. Carson Kelly figures to again shoulder the bulk of the workload behind the plate, while Daulton Varsho could split time between center field and catcher again in 2022. The Snakes also have 24-year-old Jose Herrera (25 in February) on the cusp of the big leagues after he delivered a .258/.364/.422 slash between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. Additionally, the club inked Juan Graterol — another journeyman in the Centeno mold — to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite back in November.
The Rangers Shouldn’t Ease Up After The Lockout
Many teams effectively sat out the free-agent market prior to the lockout, and the Rangers took full advantage of the lack of activity from some of the sport’s top spenders. Led by longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, second-year GM Chris Young and an ownership group that clearly isn’t interested in a protracted rebuild, the Rangers doled out more than half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. For most clubs, spending more than $500MM in free agency would seem a defensible point at which to call it a day, but if the Rangers are serious about returning to contention sooner than later, they’re not likely to be satisfied with, ahem, “just” Seager, Semien, Gray, etc.
The 2021 Rangers, to put things charitably, were a disaster. Texas lost 102 games and batted a combined .232/.294/.375. The resulting 84 wRC+ (indicating that their collective offense was 16 percent below league average) tied for the third-worst mark in MLB. Rangers hitters ranked 28th in total runs scored, 26th in home runs, 29th in walk percentage and dead last in on-base percentage.
If the Rangers boasted a deep and talented pitching staff, perhaps the additions of Seager and Semien alone would be enough to foster hope, but we know that’s not the case. Texas starters ranked 28th in the Majors in ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19) alike — and that’s including the contributions of the since-traded Kyle Gibson, who provided 113 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.76 FIP ball.
The signing of Gray gives the Rangers a big arm on which they can dream, but Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn are the only pitchers on the roster who reached 100 innings and posted even passable results. It’s questionable to even include Hearn in that trio, as nearly all of his success came out of the bullpen (5.82 ERA in the rotation versus 3.54 out of the ‘pen in near-identical samples of innings). The only pitcher currently on the roster who posted an ERA better than Dunning’s 4.55 out of the rotation last season is right-hander A.J. Alexy, who logged a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings but also walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out (13 walks, 14 punchouts).
Things are a bit rosier in the bullpen, where Texas will welcome back injured closer Jose Leclerc, who missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Impressive young righty Jonathan Hernandez is likely to return at some point in 2022 as well after missing this past season following his own Tommy John procedure. The Rangers can also look forward to full seasons from standout rookie Joe Barlow and NPB returnee Spencer Patton, who began the 2021 season in Triple-A but pitched effectively following his June call to the bigs.
Suffice it to say, even with the big splashes they’ve made to date, the Rangers don’t yet look like a contender. That’s not news to the Texas front office, which made these moves despite surely being aware that even if everything breaks right in ’22, they’re at best a long-shot to vie for a playoff berth.
That said, there’s already indication that the Rangers aren’t planning to take their foot off the gas when transactions resume. Texas has been linked to star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who has been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will sign with an MLB club once the transaction freeze lifts. The Rangers were also reportedly looking into the asking price on division-rival star Matt Olson, and they chatted with the Reds about Cincinnati’s collection of available starting pitchers. Manager Chris Woodward even went so far as to acknowledge that the team has been in contact with free agent Clayton Kershaw — a Dallas-area resident who is a first-time free agent this winter.
Onlookers may question how the Rangers can afford this level of spending spree. However, Texas has gone to great lengths to pare its payr0ll in recent years, and rather than “rebuild” through three to five dismal seasons of tanking and cultivating draft picks, it seems the Rangers plan to instead use their fiscal might in conjunction with a pair of lofty draft statuses (2021 and 2022) in hopes of an accelerated retooling.
In terms of club payroll, the Rangers only have about $127MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure will drop to around $80MM in 2023. For a club that has previously run payrolls as lofty as $165MM (in 2017), there’s a good bit of financial leeway for further additions — particularly those that could impact the roster beyond the 2022 season.
A multi-year deal for the 27-year-old Suzuki, for instance, makes good sense for a Texas club that currently figures to shuffle Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun and Eli White through left field and DH at-bats. Texas is also among the more reasonable fits for 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best pitchers on the planet in 2021 but ended the year with some troubling shoulder concerns. Agent Scott Boras — who also represents both Seager and Semien — has said Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal. We’ve seen the Rangers issue some surprising three-year deals in the past (e.g. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Gibson) — albeit in the $30MM range, which is likely a good ways south of where Rodon is aiming. Trade candidates like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez and other starters with multiple years of control should also be squarely in the Rangers’ sights, particularly if any are amenable to extensions.
Relatively youthful free agent pitchers and trade targets with multiple years of club control (and/or an openness to an extension) will be paramount, given the lack of high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door in Arlington. This past season’s No. 2 overall draft pick, Jack Leiter, could be a fast mover but has yet to throw a professional pitch. Righty Cole Winn, a 2019 first-rounder, briefly reached Triple-A last season and could eventually give the team a mid-rotation arm. That’s about the extent of the team’s high-upside pitching prospects who are at least within striking distance of the big leagues, so pairing some veterans with Gray and Dunning will be crucial if Texas hopes to turn things around come 2023.
Around the diamond, things are a bit more steady. Adding Seager and Semien gives the team a pair of lineup linchpins, and top prospect Josh Jung should debut in 2022, pushing slick-fielding Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a utility role in which he could thrive. There’s room for a bat like Suzuki in left field, as previously alluded to, and the team’s interest in Olson suggests a willingness to upgrade over Nate Lowe at first base (or at least to push Lowe to a DH role). Catcher Jonah Heim has a brutal season at the dish in 2021, but the Rangers are hoping prospect Sam Huff can eventually seize that spot.
By 2023, the Rangers will be free of the dead-money commitments owed to Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The only arbitration raise of any note slated for the 2023 payroll (and for the 2022 payroll, for that matter), is that of Kiner-Falefa. Semien, Seager and Gray are the only three players whose ’23 salaries are guaranteed. You can argue that it’s wiser to wait until next offseason, but if that were the plan, the team wouldn’t have already spent to the extent it has. To give their aggressive mindset the best chance to succeed, the Rangers should add at least one more arm and one more bat to the mix. They certainly have the payroll capacity to do just that.
Braves, A’s Discussed Matt Olson Prior To Lockout
When — or whether — the Braves will re-sign Freddie Freeman has been one of the most pressing issues on the minds of the Atlanta fan base for the better part of a year, but the 2020 NL MVP entered the current MLB lockout as a free agent with no real indication of progress toward a return to Truist Park on the horizon. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes this morning that there’s obvious incentive for either Freeman or the Braves to act quickly, one way or another, once the lockout finally ends. Most notably, Rosenthal reports that the Braves indeed spoke to the A’s about a potential Matt Olson deal prior to the lockout (as had been previously suggested), adding that the talks should not be written off as simple due diligence.
An early strike by the Braves to acquire Olson would register as nothing short of a stunner. The longstanding belief has been that despite the ostensible lack of traction in talks, Freeman will eventually reach a deal to return to the same team for which he’s played the first dozen seasons of a potential Hall-of-Fame career. It’s been even more widely expected that the A’s will trade Olson, particularly in the wake of comments from GM David Forst that the team will listen to offers on all of its top players (in preparation for a payroll reduction). However, Freeman’s legacy in Atlanta has made the Braves feel like a long shot, at best.
The 27-year-old Olson (28 in March) has been most prominently linked to the Yankees thus far in the offseason, though a good portion of the ink dedicated to that fit has been speculative in nature. The Rangers are among the other clubs to have been tied to Olson on the heels of a career year in Oakland.
Olson, the No. 47 overall draft pick back in 2012, dramatically reduced his strikeout rate this past season without conceding anything in terms of power or walk rate. He’d fanned in 26.1% of his career plate appearances heading into 2021, including a career-worst 31.4% clip in 2020, but slashed that mark to 16.8% this past season. Meanwhile, he walked at a 13.1% clip and slugged a career-best 39 home runs and 35 doubles — all while playing standout defense at first base. He’s controlled for another two seasons before free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming year in the first of those two campaigns.
If the Braves were to make the unpopular decision to move on from Freeman, Olson would represent the best option — at least among plausibly available targets in free agency and on the trade market. Alternatives such as free agent Anthony Rizzo or trade candidate Luke Voit would be less impactful. That said, the $12MM projection on Olson’s 2021 salary is more than twice as much as this past season’s $5MM salary, and he’d be in line for a similarly massive raise for the 2023 campaign before hitting free agency in arguably an even better position than Freeman currently occupies.
While Freeman, of course, has the lengthier track record, Olson stands to reach the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Freeman will play the bulk of the upcoming season at 32 before turning 33 in September. Should Olson continue at his 2021 pace — or anything close to it — he could viably seek a contract of even greater length and/or greater total value than Freeman is currently seeking; an extension for Olson wouldn’t figure to be much cheaper, given his blend of youth, recent track record and relative proximity to the open market.
Also vital to consider is the enormous asking price that’s sure to be placed on Olson. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted a couple months back that the Athletics were “shooting for the moon” in any talks regarding Olson — understandably so. It’s increasingly rare in MLB to see a player of this caliber, with this much club control remaining, actually change hands on the trade market. Using FanGraphs’ wins above replacement as a loose barometer, Olson would be the third-best player (based on 2019-21 WAR) with multiple years of control remaining to be traded over the past three years. One of the two names ahead of him, Nolan Arenado, isn’t really a comparable given that he’d already been signed to a massive extension that impacted the nature of trade talks between the Rockies and Cardinals.
The other name ahead of Olson in those WAR rankings is perhaps the best and most direct recent comparable: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phils surrendered one of baseball’s 15 best overall prospects (Sixto Sanchez), plus an immediate MLB-ready replacement (Jorge Alfaro, who’d recently ranked as a top prospect himself) and a solid mid-tier organizational arm in lefty Will Stewart. Starling Marte was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona when he had two years remaining on his contract, netting the Bucs now-top-100 prospect Liover Peguero and pitching prospect Brennan Malone. However, Marte was 31 at the time of that trade and wasn’t coming off nearly as strong a season as Olson’s 2021 showing.
Simply put, a package to acquire Olson should considerably outpace what the Bucs received for Marte, and he arguably ought to fetch more than Realmuto did. That’s not to suggest that an Olson package would be a direct, apples-to-apples comparison with the Realmuto swap — but rather to illustrate the sizable value that a player of this caliber carries when he has multiple years of control remaining. Certainly, the packages would differ. For instance, Atlanta doesn’t have a prospect who’s currently as well-regarded as Sanchez was at the time that deal. The A’s could well have different priorities than the Marlins did, too; they’d surely require a premium headliner but have also been known to pursue volume-based approaches of MLB-ready talent rather than packages strictly composed of far-off, but high-upside minor leaguers. (See their return packages for Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Rich Hill/Josh Reddick, Ryan Madson/Sean Doolittle and more.)
If the Braves’ primary trepidation regarding a Freeman deal is the length of the contract, as has been oft-suggested, then an Olson acquisition may only be a slightly more palatable road to traverse — unless the front office is content to ship out heaps of young talent in exchange for a two-year rental and a subsequent draft pick (if the qualifying offer system even remains in place following the collective bargaining talks). Broadly speaking, the sorts of contracts currently being sought by Freeman and likely to be sought by Olson in the near future are the very types that Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has eschewed since being hired in Nov. 2017.
While the Braves slightly broke from their aversion to long-term commitments in last winter’s ill-fated re-signing of Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM), even that contract only materialized after Ozuna was unable to secure the fifth year he originally sought. Outside of that four-year pact, the Braves have shown a strong preference for shorter-term deals, often at premium annual values — a similar philosophy to that of the Dodgers, where Anthopoulos served as senior vice president of baseball ops prior to being hired in Atlanta. Will Smith‘s three-year, $39MM deal is the next-largest free agent deal given out under Anthopoulos in Atlanta. The only times he’s gone to five years or more have been on wildly team-friendly deals for young stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.
Whether the Braves are willing to break that mold for Freeman can’t be known, but it’s nevertheless notable that they’ve had talks with the A’s about a potential replacement. It’s perhaps even more telling that, as Rosenthal suggests, either Freeman or the Braves could move quickly in a new direction post-lockout after spending the past 12 months in a staring contest.