Michael Lorenzen Hoping For Rotation Opportunity In Free Agency
For seven seasons with the Reds, right-hander Michael Lorenzen was utilized in rather unique fashion. The 29-year-old former No. 38 overall pick started 21 games as a rookie before settling in as a reliever. He also spent 96 innings in the outfield, 81 of them in center, and even played a handful of complete games as a center fielder down the stretch in 2019. He’s not Shohei Ohtani, but Lorenzen’s .233/.282/.429 batting line and seven career home runs in 147 plate appearances make him one of the game’s most productive pitchers with a bat in his hands.
At various points in his career, Lorenzen was set to audition for another opportunity in the Cincinnati rotation, but Spring Training injuries intervened. Now, as he sets out into the free-agent market, the 29-year-old righty hopes to sign with a club that will give him the chance to compete for a spot in the starting rotation, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
The 2021 season was a rough one for Lorenzen, who sustained a shoulder strain in Spring Training at a time when the Reds were planning to give him another chance at starting. As the right-hander explains to Nightengale, he suffered a Grade 3 hamstring strain while fielding a bunt against the Pirates on Aug. 8 — not long after returning from the shoulder injury. Rather than go on the injured list, Lorenzen somehow found a way to pitch through the injury down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, it wasn’t a productive run, but with so many injuries elsewhere in the Cincinnati ‘pen, Lorenzen gutted things out.
A look at Lorenzen’s 2021 numbers won’t generate much excitement. The right-hander finished out the year with a 5.59 ERA, a 16.8 percent strikeout rate, an 11.2 percent walk rate and a 44.8 percent grounder rate. The ERA is rather heavily skewed by Lorenzen’s final two appearances of the season, during which he yielded a combined eight runs in just 1 2/3 frames. Prior to that, he’d worked to a solid 3.62 ERA with an 18.9 percent strikeout rate and a 9.0 percent walk rate. Given that he was never (or only briefly) at full strength, it was a rather impressive showing up until that final pair of games.
Lorenzen figures to draw interest in a variety of roles, and plenty of teams will surely be more keen on plugging him into the bullpen than giving him a legitimate chance to start. From 2016-20, Lorenzen racked up 331 innings out of the Cincinnati bullpen and pitched to a cumulative 3.48 ERA with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, nine percent walk rate and 44.8 percent ground-ball rate. He missed the first two and a half months of the ’16 season with an elbow strain and missed six weeks in ’18 with a shoulder strain, but Lorenzen still averaged 66 2/3 innings per season — and that’s including last year’s shortened schedule.
Given his track record in the ‘pen, one would imagine that Lorenzen’s most-lucrative offers will be to pitch in relief next season. The right-hander tells Nightengale, however, that he’s “willing to bet on [himself]” in free agency this winter if the right situation comes along. Presumably, any starting opportunities would be on a low-cost deal with a fair bit of incentives — perhaps some based both on starting and relieving.
This year’s injury-marred results notwithstanding, Lorenzen has a strong track record in the bullpen, as many as six different pitches (headlined by a heater that averaged 96.9 mph in 2021), an excellent bat relative to other pitchers, and strong defensive skills in the outfield. Statcast pegged him in the 95th percentile in terms of sprint speed in 2017, and his 28.8 ft/sec speed in 2019 tied him for 68th among 564 big league position players. Beyond the raw speed, Statcast pegs him at +2 Outs Above Average as an outfielder, while Defensive Runs Saved has him at +1 in those 96 career innings. A rough 2021 showing will probably keep the price down, but he’ll be one of the more interesting buy-low options on the offseason market, regardless of what role he lands.
Yusei Kikuchi Likely To Exercise Player Option For 2022
The Mariners’ original signing of Yusei Kikuchi provided the left-hander with one of the more unconventional option scenarios in recent memory. The team can exercise a four-year, $66MM extension option after the current season, and if the Mariners turn down that effective extension clause, he’ll have a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season.
It looked like an intriguing dilemma for the Mariners midway through the season, when Kikuchi had made the All-Star team and was in the midst of what looked like a breakout campaign. However, the left-hander faded down the stretch to the extent that it now looks likelier that the Mariners will decline their portion of the option. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that if the Mariners indeed decline to pick up the additional four years of Kikuchi, the pitcher plans to exercise his portion of the deal, setting him up for a fourth season in Seattle and a $13MM salary.
Back in early July, I took a lengthy look at the situation at what was perhaps the peak point of Kikuchi’s season. At the time, he carried a 3.18 ERA with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 53.8 percent grounder rate. Kikuchi’s average fastball jumped immensely from 2019 in his second and third big league seasons, and he was missing bats more than ever with career-best command. He’d held opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of 15 starts and rattled off a 2.33 ERA over his past 11 starts — averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing along the way.
Things almost immediately took a turn for the worse, as Kikuchi yielded a combined 12 runs over his next two starts and never fully regained his footing. There were still some strong starts mixed in along the way, including seven shutout frames against the Astros on Aug. 31, but Kikuchi pitched to a collective 6.22 ERA over his final 14 outings. His strikeout rate dipped slightly (23.3 percent), his walk rate rose (10.3 percent) and his ground-ball rate plummeted from that 53.8 percent mark all the way down to 41.7 percent. Unsurprisingly, the huge uptick on balls hit in the air against Kikuchi prompted his home-run rate to spike as well (1.70 HR/9 in those final 14 starts).
The end result doesn’t necessarily look that bad on paper. Kikuchi totaled 157 innings and notched a 4.41 ERA with a roughly average strikeout rate, a worse-than-average walk rate and an above-average ground-ball rate. Taken in its entirety, it was a respectable overall season. And if Kikuchi had flipped things around, starting with those ugly 14 starts before more or less dominating in his final 15, we’d be viewing the option decision quite differently even though the end results would look exactly the same.
There’s a case to be made that perhaps Kikuchi could exceed that $13MM he’s guaranteed on the player option by declining and seeking a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate. We’ve seen plenty of two-year contracts in the $16-20MM range for veteran arms with comparable bottom-line numbers and less-impressive combinations of strikeout rate and ground-ball tendencies. That said, he likely wouldn’t exceed that $13MM salary by much, so it’s not a huge surprise that on the heels of a dismal second half, he’d lock that salary in and hope to position himself for a stronger trip to the market in the 2022-23 offseason.
Looking to the Mariners’ payroll, they may not consider paying Kikuchi $13MM next year to be ideal, but it’s hardly a backbreaker. The only guaranteed contracts on the books are Marco Gonzales ($5.5MM), Ken Giles ($5MM in what will be his return season from 2020 Tommy John surgery), Chris Flexen ($2.75MM) and Evan White ($1.4MM). They hold a $20MM club option on Kyle Seager that Divish and others have suggested is likely to be bought out, and the Mariners will also pay $3.75MM to the Mets under the previous Robinson Cano trade. They’ll be looking at arbitration raises for Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo, among others, but Haniger’s $3.01MM salary from 2021 is the highest starting point for any of those raises. None should break the bank.
Seattle only opened the 2021 season with a payroll in the $74MM range, but from 2017-19 the M’s averaged an Opening Day payroll of roughly $152.9MM. Recently promoted president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already said that ownership has authorized him to increase payroll next year, and with such a light slate of commitments on the books, a returning Kikuchi at $13MM shouldn’t prove too much of a detriment.
Dodgers Set NLDS Roster
After toppling the Cardinals in walk-off fashion to advance beyond the Wild Card Game, the Dodgers on Friday announced their 26-man roster for their NLDS battle against the rival Giants. Both Walker Buehler and David Price, who were kept off the Wild Card roster, are on the NLDS roster in place of outfielder Luke Raley and utilityman Zach McKinstry.
Here’s a look at all 26 names…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Phil Bickford
- Walker Buehler (Game 1 starter)
- Tony Gonsolin
- Brusdar Graterol
- Kenley Jansen
- Joe Kelly
- Corey Knebel
- Max Scherzer
- Blake Treinen
Left-Handed Pitchers
- David Price
- Julio Urias (Game 2 starter)
- Alex Vesia
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
There’s not a whole lot of note with the Dodgers’ choices. Buehler started Los Angeles’ regular season finale and was only left off the Wild Card roster in anticipation of his potential Game 1 start tonight. The southpaw Price wasn’t active for the Dodgers’ game against a Cardinals team that leans heavily right-handed, but it was always expected he’d be back to offer some multi-inning relief depth over a longer series.
Max Muncy remains inactive as he recovers from the elbow dislocation he suffered in the regular season finale. Muncy will not require surgery, but his elbow will remain immobilized for the next couple weeks, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). That timeline would seem to make his return at any point in a potential postseason run a longshot, but neither Muncy nor the Dodgers have ruled out that possibility as of yet. The 30-year-old figures to appear on some MVP ballots after popping 36 home runs and walking at an elite 14% clip this season, leading to a .249/.368/.527 slash line that checks in 40 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.
Brandon Belt, Johnny Cueto Not On Giants’ NLDS Roster
The Giants announced their National League Division Series roster this morning, with first baseman Brandon Belt and right-hander Johnny Cueto representing the most notable omissions. Belt’s absence was entirely expected, as he sustained a fracture in his thumb less than two weeks ago — an injury that initially came with a roughly four-week recovery period. He’s hoping to be able to return if the Giants advance to the NLCS, though there’s no certainty he’ll be able to do so. Cueto’s omission is not injury-related, but he wasn’t slated to make a start in a best-of-five series so the Giants will instead opt for 14 position players and 12 pitchers.
Here’s the roster they’ll carry into their date with their archrival Dodgers…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Kervin Castro
- Anthony DeSclafani
- Camilo Doval
- Kevin Gausman (Game 2 starter)
- Dominic Leone
- Zack Littell
- Tyler Rogers
- Logan Webb (Game 1 starter)
Left-Handed Pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
There’s no sugar-coating what a tough loss it is for the Giants to be without Belt, who has not only enjoyed a resurgence but has produced at previously unforeseen levels during his age-33 and age-34 seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Belt has been the third-best hitter in all of baseball, by measure of wRC+ (163), trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in that time (min. 500 plate appearances). In his past 560 trips to the plate, Belt has turned in an outrageous .285/.393/.595 batting line and connected on 38 home runs and 27 doubles. Each of Flores, Ruf and Wade has seen time at first base for the Giants this season, and Bryant is certainly capable of slotting in at the position as well.
It’s possible that Cueto could be added back to the NLCS roster — a best-of-seven set that could include games on three consecutive days and thus increase the importance of adding some length to the pitching staff. While it hasn’t been one of Cueto’s best seasons, the 35-year-old posted solid results in 22 appearances (21 of them starts). The two-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up tallied 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with an even 20 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 6.1 percent walk rate. He’s in the final season of a six-year, $130MM contract that contains a $22MM club option with a $5MM buyout.
Richard Rodriguez, Chris Martin Not On Braves’ NLDS Roster
The Braves announced their 26-man roster for a National League Division Series faceoff with the Brewers, notably omitting right-handers Richard Rodriguez and Chris Martin from the group. They’ll carry some extra speed in the form of Terrance Gore, and rookie left-hander Dylan Lee is a somewhat surprising choice for an southpaw in the bullpen. Here’s how the roster breaks down…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Ian Anderson
- Jesse Chavez
- Luke Jackson
- Charlie Morton (Game 1 starter)
- Jacob Webb
- Huascar Ynoa
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Max Fried (Game 2 starter)
- Dylan Lee
- Tyler Matzek
- A.J. Minter
- Will Smith
- Drew Smyly
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Rodriguez was one of the Braves’ most notable acquisitions prior to the trade deadline, and he posted a strong 3.12 ERA in 26 innings with Atlanta. However, he’s also surrendered five home runs in his past 10 appearances and, more concerning, has seen his strikeout rate absolutely crater with the Braves. Rodriguez had a 22.8 percent strikeout rate and 10.7 percent swinging-strike rate in Pittsburgh, but he’s fanned just 8.5 percent of his opponents and posted a diminished 8.2 percent swinging-strike rate since the trade. He’s still managed a solid ERA due to a .200 average on balls in play and a 97.1 percent strand rate, but neither of those is sustainable in the long run and the Braves apparently didn’t want to chance it in a short postseason series.
Martin, 35, is in the second season of a two-year, $14MM contract, making his omission something of a surprise as well. He’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA in 43 1/3 innings, but the right-hander has also seen his strikeout rate fall from 30.1 percent in 2019-20 to 18.2 percent this season. Martin has done well to keep runs off the board despite becoming more hittable, but he’s yielded a .312/.347/.447 batting line since June 1.
The 27-year-old Lee only made his Major League debut a week ago, but he’ll now be penciled in as a part of manager Brian Snitker’s relief corps for at least this round of play. Lee allowed a pair of runs in two innings at the end of the regular season, but he dominated in 46 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2021: 1.54 ERA, 30.9 percent strikeout rate, 3.4 percent walk rate. The Braves signed Lee to a minor league contract after he was released by the Marlins late in Spring Training, and his rapid ascension to the Majors with a division-rival undoubtedly stings for Miami. Fellow rookie Spencer Strider was surely considered for a spot as well, but the Braves ultimately opted for an additional lefty.
Gore finds himself in a familiar role as a postseason pinch-running/defensive specialist. He won’t find himself in the starting lineup for any of the upcoming games, but he’ll give Snitker and the Braves one of the game’s fastest baserunners if they need some speed later in a game. Some fans may have preferred to see longtime top prospect Cristian Pache in this role, but Gore was more prolific and more efficient in terms of stolen bases this season.
Both Arcia and Johan Camargo had big seasons in Triple-A this year, but it’ll be Arcia who gets the nod for the Division Series as a versatile infield option off the bench. That seemed like the more probable outcome after Arcia received a September call-up, while Camargo remained in Gwinnett. Arcia, acquired from the Brewers early in the season, only received three starts in September but will provide some insurance at shortstop, second base and third base. The Braves also gave him a look in left field down the stretch.
Brewers Announce NLDS Roster; Brent Suter Out With Oblique Injury
The Brewers announced the 26-man roster they’ll carry for an NLDS showdown against the Braves this morning. Left-hander Brent Suter at first appeared to be a surprising omission, but the Brewers announced that Suter is out for at least this series due to a “minor” right oblique strain. Rather than swap Suter out for another lefty, such as Hoby Milner or deadline acquisition Daniel Norris, they’ll instead go with three catchers. Here’s how the roster breaks down…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Brad Boxberger
- Corbin Burnes (Game 1 starter)
- Jake Cousins
- Jandel Gustave
- Adrian Houser
- Freddy Peralta
- Hunter Strickland
- Brandon Woodruff (Game 2 starter)
Left-Handed Pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
The loss of Suter is a notable one. While he’s far from the household name that teammate Josh Hader is, Suter has quietly been brilliant for the Brewers since his 2019 return from Tommy John surgery. In 123 1/3 innings since being reinstated from the injured list that season, Suter carries a 2.70 ERA with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate, an outstanding 5.9 percent walk rate and a similarly strong 52.2 percent grounder rate. He’s no stranger to working multiple innings, and he has no discernible platoon splits of which to speak. Since 2019, lefties have batted .227/.280/.393 against Suter, while righties have slashed .241/.288/.365. That the team specified the injury as “minor” in nature gives some hope that he could return for a potential NLCS or World Series run, but no timetable for his recovery has been formally announced.
Milwaukee surely had higher hopes for Norris when acquiring him from the Tigers just prior to the trade deadline. Looking past the 5.54 ERA he posted in Detroit this season, Norris had posted strong strikeout, ground-ball, home-run and swinging-strike rates prior to the swap. Every one of those rates trended in the wrong direction following his acquisition, however, and his walk rate jumped by nearly seven percent: from 9.6 to 16.5.
Jackie Bradley Jr.’s inclusion on the roster serves as a testament to his brilliant glovework, which could factor late into any close games for the Brew Crew. After hitting just .163/.236/.261 in his first season with Milwaukee, there was certainly a case to make different use of that roster spot, but Bradley still posted nine Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a 7.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 722 innings in center field.
Twins Outright Six Players
The Twins have outrighted six players off their 40-man roster after they went unclaimed on waivers, as first noted on the transactions page at MLB.com. Right-handers Kyle Barraclough, Nick Vincent, Ian Gibaut and Luke Farrell were all removed from the roster, as were lefty Andrew Albers and infielder Drew Maggi.
All of the players dropped from the roster today will be eligible to become free agents. The 30-year-old Farrell spent more time in the big leagues than any of the bunch this season, tossing 24 2/3 innings with a 4.74 ERA, a 22.1 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate. It was the fifth straight season with some Major League action for Farrell, although the Twins are already his fifth big league team as well. In 87 2/3 innings at the MLB level, Farrell carries a 4.93 ERA.
Vincent, 35, is the most experienced of the group, having accrued more than seven full years of Major League service time across the past 10 seasons. He held opponents to just one run in 12 2/3 innings, albeit with a tepid 19.1 percent strikeout rate, a higher-than-average 10.6 percent walk rate and a fastball that averaged just 89.3 mph. Vincent was set to become a free agent anyway, based purely on service time, so his outright is largely a formality.
The 31-year-old Barraclough worked in a setup role for the Marlins from 2015-18, logging 218 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball with a hefty 29.8 percent strikeout rate but also a bloated 14.3 percent walk rate. He’s bounced around the league a good bit since that time, and in 13 frames with Minnesota this season allowed eight runs on 12 hits and eight walks with 18 strikeouts — a 5.54 ERA on the whole.
Albers, 36, returned for a third stint with the Twins and was tagged for 16 runs in 19 innings (7.58 ERA) in a late-season call back to the big leagues. He had a solid year in the rotation for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate, logging a 3.88 ERA in 102 innings. Albers had spent the three prior seasons pitching with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, logging a 4.02 ERA in 266 1/3 innings.
Gibaut, 27, only pitched 6 2/3 big league innings with the Twins. He held opponents to a pair of runs in that time but spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A St. Paul, where he posted an unsightly 6.80 ERA with a solid 26 percent strikeout rate against a 10.1 percent walk rate. He’s now seen MLB time with the Rays, Rangers and Twins but only managed a 5.40 ERA in 33 1/3 innings.
Maggi, 32, had his contract selected to the Majors late in the season, but the Twins somewhat surprisingly didn’t get the veteran minor leaguer into what would’ve been the first big league game of his career. He’s spent two seasons in their system and turned in a .252/.354/.456 batting line with a career-best 16 home runs and a dozen stolen bases while playing shortstop, second base, third base and left field in Triple-A this year.
Today’s slate of subtractions will help to open roster space for a Twins club that finished the year with eight players needing to be reinstated from the 60-day injured list. They’ll still need to open a couple more spots to accommodate a 60-day IL group that includes Kenta Maeda, Taylor Rogers, Alex Kirilloff, Cody Stashak, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Kyle Garlick and Lewis Thorpe.
Rays Announce ALDS Roster
The Rays on Thursday announced their roster for their ALDS showdown against the division-rival Red Sox. Notable omissions include outfielder and 2020 postseason hero Brett Phillips as well as left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who led the Rays with 155 innings pitched this season (and leads the team in innings by a mile dating back to his 2018 debut).
Keeping Phillips off the roster deprives the Rays of a premium defender in the outfield and ample speed on the bases, but Phillips’ .110/.207/.164 slash against lefties could be easily exploited by a Red Sox roster that has no shortage of southpaws. Conversely, his omission allows the Rays to carry the right-handed-hitting Jordan Luplow, who has hit lefties at a .245/.360/.539 clip in his career. Luplow’s production against lefties in 2021 has dissipated, but his overall body of work against them is formidable.
As for Yarbrough, it was no doubt a difficult decision on a personal level to keep him off the roster. However, the lefty had a tumultuous season, yielding five or more earned runs in 10 of his 30 appearances (21 starts, nine appearances as a bulk reliever behind an opener). While Yarbrough had his share of excellent outings, the end-of-year results were a career-worst 5.11 ERA and a career-low 17.9 percent strikeout rate. He can still be added to the ALCS or World Series roster, should the Rays advance that far — although it should be noted with regard to a potential ALCS showing that the Astros and White Sox were two of the four best-hitting lineups against lefties in all of baseball.
Here’s how Tampa Bay’s roster breaks down…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Shane Baz (Game 2 starter)
- JT Chargois
- Pete Fairbanks
- J.P. Feyereisen
- Andrew Kittredge
- Collin McHugh
- Luis Patino
- Drew Rasmussen
- David Robertson
- Michael Wacha
- Matt Wisler
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Josh Fleming
- Shane McClanahan (Game 1 starter)
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Designated Hitter
One year after making his Major League debut during the postseason, the 24-year-old McClanahan will now get the ball as the Game 1 starter for the Rays. The former first-rounder and top prospect enjoyed a very strong rookie campaign, working to a 3.43 ERA with 27.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate in 123 1/3 innings (25 starts). The Rays were cautious with McClanahan’s workload early in the season (hence the rather brief average start length), regularly capping him at four or five frames. They generally kept him on a short leash throughout the year to keep his innings down after scarcely pitching in 2020 (when there was no minor league season), but McClanahan tossed six-plus innings in six of his final 16 starts.
Baz, just 22, will be making only his fourth big league start when he takes the mound in Game 2. The big stage didn’t seem to impact him at all upon making his debut in September, as he pitched to a 2.03 ERA with an 18-to-3 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 innings over three starts to begin his MLB career. Acquired alongside Meadows and Tyler Glasnow in the lopsided deal that sent Chris Archer to the Pirates, Baz is widely regarded as one of the game’s top overall pitching prospects. He demonstrated precisely why that’s the case with a dominant minor league season, working to a combined 2.06 ERA with a 37.9 percent strikeout rate and a 4.4 percent walk rate in 78 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. While neither Shane is necessarily a household name right now, that could change quickly depending on how the postseason plays out — and both are vital long-term pieces for the Rays.
J.D. Martinez Returns To Red Sox’ ALDS Roster; Matt Barnes Left Off
The Red Sox announced their roster for their American League Division Series showdown against the Rays this morning, revealing that they’ll have slugger J.D. Martinez available to them for the best-of-five set. Martinez was omitted from Boston’s Wild Card roster after he tripped over second base and sprained his ankle in the final game of the regular season, but he’s apparently healthy enough to return to DH duties after a few days of downtime.
Of greater surprise, however, is that the Red Sox opted to leave right-hander Matt Barnes off the roster for this particular series. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension in July after a dominant three-month start to the season, wilted down the stretch and lost his grip on the team’s closer role.
It was a true tale of two seasons for the 31-year-old Barnes, who posted a 2.25 ERA and a massive 42 percent strikeout rate through his first 44 innings this season before collapsing with a 10.13 ERA in his final 10 2/3 innings (over a span of 16 appearances). Barnes saw his strikeout rate plummet to 26.7 percent as his 6.8 walk rate jumped to 15 percent in that time. After allowing only four homers through his first 44 innings, he yielded four more in those final 10 2/3 innings. Given that context, it’s understandable that Barnes would miss the cut, but such a scenario never would’ve seemed fathomable less than two months ago, when he put pen to paper on a two-year, $18.75MM extension.
Here’s how Boston’s roster breaks down…
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Ryan Brasier
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Tanner Houck
- Adam Ottavino
- Nick Pivetta
- Garrett Richards
- Hansel Robles
- Garrett Whitlock
Left-Handed Pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
- J.D. Martinez
- Hunter Renfroe
- Kyle Schwarber
- Alex Verdugo
Infielder/Outfielder
It’s also of note that Santana has been added to the roster. The switch-hitting speedster has been on the Covid-related injured list since Sept. 10, but the Red Sox opened a roster spot for him yesterday by outrighting shortstop Jose Iglesias (who wasn’t postseason-eligible because he signed mid-September). Santana will give the Sox some speed, a bit of pop and plenty of defensive versatility — but it wasn’t a productive 2021 season for him overall. In 127 plate appearances, Santana batted just .181/.252/.345 with five homers and four stolen bases.
Also dropped from the roster for this round were center fielder Jarren Duran, catcher Connor Wong and infielder Jonathan Arauz. Those subtractions help to pave the way for the addition of Chris Sale and Martin Perez, who weren’t on the Wild Card roster. Sale pitched in the season finale and wouldn’t have been an option in the Wild Card game, but he’ll be expected to start during the Division Series. That said, it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez getting the ball for Game 1 against the Rays and lefty Shane McClanahan.
Hoyer: Pitching Will Be Cubs’ Top Priority
As the Cubs (and most other teams around the game) shift their focus to the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week that improving and deepening his pitching staff will be his “No. 1 priority” this winter (links via Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). That said, Hoyer also preached the importance of utilizing the team’s considerable financial flexibility “in an intelligent way” and pointed to Rays and Giants as examples of teams who made under-the-radar moves to bring themselves into the postseason.
As one would expect, Hoyer didn’t expressly rule out the addition of any marquee free agents. However, he also pushed back against the notion of “winning” the offseason — noting that such aggressive pushes can often “be a real negative” — and instead spoke of acting in a more “opportunistic” manner. While pitching may be the primary focus of the Cubs’ offseason dealings, then, it doesn’t sound as though Hoyer is embarking on an all-out pursuit for top-of-the-market additions.
That the Cubs would prioritize pitching — particularly starting pitching — is to be expected after their starters were among the worst in baseball in nearly every category in 2021. Last offseason saw Hoyer & Co. downgrade from Yu Darvish to Zach Davies in salary-dump deal with the Padres, following that up with one-year signings of Trevor Williams and Jake Arrieta. Davies didn’t pitch well enough to garner trade interest at the deadline. Arrieta was eventually released. Williams went to the Mets alongside Javier Baez. None of the three will be back in 2022 (unless the club re-signs Davies).
The result was a rotation that ranked 23rd in the Majors in innings pitched (781 2/3), 27th in ERA (5.27), 29th in FIP (5.21) and tied for 28th in SIERA (4.74). Cubs starters had the third-lowest strikeout rate of any team in MLB and the eighth-highest walk rate — a decidedly suboptimal combination. Things were better in the bullpen, although not overwhelmingly so, and the deadline trades of Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin leave plenty of work to be done on the relief side of the equation as well.
Looking to the 2022 campaign, the Cubs’ rotation currently projects to include right-handers Kyle Hendricks, Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay. Lefty Justin Steele struggled for much of his nine-start audition down the stretch, but he closed out the year on a high note with seven shutout frames (albeit against a thin Pirates lineup). Right-hander Adrian Sampson has minor league options remaining and could get a look after making five starts. Broadly speaking, there’s ample room to add to the rotation — even if the Cubs indeed sit out the market for Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and other top starters.
The looming offseason will present Major League teams with a deep collection of free-agent starting pitchers to pursue — even beyond the aforementioned top names. The market also features established mid-rotation arms, relatively young arms in need of a bounceback, and solid but older veterans who’ll likely command relatively short-term deals. Free agency will be clouded by the ongoing collective bargaining talks between the league and the MLBPA, but whenever teams do begin to make additions, the Cubs will have no shortage of options.
It’s also plenty plausible that the Cubs could further dip into the trade market to acquire some younger arms in either the rotation or the ‘pen. Willson Contreras is a year from free agency and ought to again command interest from teams in search of a short-term option behind the plate. Outfielder Ian Happ only has two years of club control remaining and closed out the season with a huge second half. Hendricks struggled through the worst season of his career in 2021 but from 2017-20 tossed 597 innings of 3.27 ERA ball. He’s signed through 2023.
Whatever route the Cubs wish to take, there’s really no target who should be out of their price range. The team has one of the game’s deepest revenue streams and only has the contracts of Hendricks ($14MM), Jason Heyward ($22MM) and David Bote ($2.5MM) on next year’s books. Contreras and Happ are the only players set to receive notable arbitration raises, and again, neither should be viewed as a lock to return. We’re only two years removed from the Cubs trotting out an Opening Day payroll north of $200MM, meaning it’d be a tough sell to the fans to both trade away the core of the last championship roster and follow it up with another offseason punctuated by modest one-year deals.
Hoyer has emphasized on multiple occasions that despite the Cubs’ recent trades and lack of spending, this reshaping of the roster won’t mirror the aggressive tanking process of their last rebuild. The extent to which that is or is not actually the case will start to become clear over the next several months.