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Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

Athletics Re-Sign Edwin Jackson

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FRIDAY: The A’s have announced the signing.

WEDNESDAY, 6:52pm: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the two sides have indeed reached an agreement on a deal.

6:44pm: The A’s are closing in on a minor league contract with veteran righty Edwin Jackson, reports Julian McWilliams of The Athletic (via Twitter). Jackson spent the bulk of the 2018 campaign with the Oakland organization and played a key role in their rotation down the stretch last season.

The 35-year-old Jackson stepped into the record books the day he suited up for the Athletics last season, as they were the 13th Major League team for which he’d appeared, tying him with fellow well-traveled righty Octavio Dotel. While the new agreement with Oakland won’t give him a chance at staking sole possession to that oddball record, Jackson should have an opportunity to return to the big leagues for what would be a 17th season.

Jackson did far more than turn himself into a semi-obscure trivia answer during his time with Oakland. Though he may have initially been viewed as a stopgap option for the A’s, he quickly cemented his place on the team’s roster and made himself into a vital part of the pitching staff. As the Athletics’ rotation was ravaged by injuries, Jackson made 17 starts and provided the A’s with 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Always a hard thrower, Jackson saw his velocity hold up even into his mid-30s as he averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball with 6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate along the way.

The Oakland rotation currently consists of Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, Frankie Montas and Aaron Brooks, but once the veteran Jackson is up to speed, he’ll emerge as a candidate to step into the back of the starting five. Other healthy options on the 40-man roster for the A’s include Daniel Mengden, Paul Blackburn and Tanner Anderson, while righties Jharel Cotton, Chris Bassitt and Daniel Gossett are on the mend on the big league disabled list. Top starter Sean Manaea underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2018 season, and although he was initially expected to miss most — if not all — of the 2019 season, there’s now some hope that he could be back around the All-Star break.

Allen Craig Joins Padres’ Front Office

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Former big league first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig has joined the Padres’ front office as an advisor to the baseball operations department, reports MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). The move officially brings Craig’s playing career to a close.

Though Craig, 34, hasn’t been in the Major Leagues since 2015 with the Red Sox, he’d yet to hang up the spikes. He was in camp with the Padres on a minor league deal this spring and appeared in six games, and he spent the past three seasons with the Triple-A affiliates for Boston (2016-17) and San Diego (2018).

Craig’s peak in the Majors was brief but impactful. His 2010 rookie season didn’t stand out in any way, but he burst onto the scene in 2011 when he raked at a .315/.362/.555 clip and belted 26 extra-base hits (11 homers, 15 doubles) in just 219 plate appearances. Craig played a key role in the Cardinals’ postseason exploits that season as well and was rewarded with a World Series ring. He’d follow up that strong year with a highly productive .307/.354/.522 slash and 22 homers over an even larger sample of work (514 plate appearances) in 2012.

That sample was enough for the Cards to invest in Craig on a five-year extension back in Spring Training 2013. He made the move look like a bargain with another strong year in 2013, hitting .315/.373/.457 and landing his first (and only) All-Star nod.

Following that three-year peak in which he batted a combined .312/.364/.500 (136 OPS+), however, Craig’s bat completely evaporated. After suffering a Lisfranc injury late in 2013, he slumped through a woeful first half of the season in 2014 and found himself traded to the Red Sox alongside Joe Kelly in the deal that sent John Lackey to St. Louis.

Hitting .215/.279/.315 at the time of the trade, Craig saw his troubles grow even more pronounced with his new team. In 195 plate appearances with Boston from 2014-15, he mustered just a .139/.236/.197 line before being designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster. He’d finish out his extension in Triple-A before landing with the Padres in the 2017-18 offseason.

It’s not fully clear what Craig has in mind for the next phase of his career. As an advisor to the baseball ops department he could follow the path recently taken by former Rays right-hander Brandon Gomes, who is now an assistant general manager with the Dodgers. That’s but one of many roads to explore in retirement, though; current Astros manager A.J. Hinch worked in the San Diego front office, for instance, providing another potential blueprint for Craig’s post-playing days.

Whatever “The Wrench” has in store for him, he’ll embark on that journey with a career .276/.333/.435 batting line, 59 home runs, 107 doubles, three triples, 239 runs scored and 296 runs knocked in over the course of 534 big league games. Brief as his career was, he earned about $32MM as a player, made an All-Star team and captured a World Series ring — a successful slate of accomplishments if there ever was one. Best wishes to him in the next chapter of his baseball career.

Yankees Place Gary Sanchez On Injured List

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The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve placed catcher Gary Sanchez on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 11, due to a left calf strain. Fellow backstop Kyle Higashioka has been recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in his place.

Sanchez becomes the 12th Yankees player to hit the injured list on the young season, joining key contributors Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton, among others. He’ll be out for at least the next nine days, given that the move is retroactive by one day, which is no small blow to the Yankees’ lineup given the excellent start Sanchez has enjoyed. To this point, he’s slashed .268/.333/.732 with six big flies through just 45 trips to the plate.

Higashioka, who’ll turn 29 during Sanchez’s absence, will team with Austin Romine to comprise the Yankees’ catching tandem while Sanchez is on the shelf. He’s seen sparse action at the MLB level with the Yankees over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .133/.212/.256 in 99 plate appearances.

Orioles Sign Jesmuel Valentin To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles signed infielder Jesmuel Valentin to a minor league contract, per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com (Twitter link). The Orioles’ Double-A affiliate in Bowie announced shortly thereafter that Valentin has been added to its roster.

Valentin, 24, made his big league debut with the Phillies in 2018 but received just 89 plate appearances. In that time, the switch-hitter managed only a .177/.258/.304 batting line with a homer, five doubles and a triple. Valentin, the No. 51 overall pick in the 2012 draft (by the Dodgers), is the son of former big leaguer Jose Valentin and the nephew of Javier Valentin.

The younger Valentin landed with the Phillies by way of the 2014 swap that sent right-hander Roberto Hernandez from Philadelphia to Los Angeles. He’s a versatile defender, with experience at second base, shortstop, third base and a brief look in both outfield corners, but he’s never established himself as much of an offensive threat. He’s a career .260/.345/.379 hitter in parts of seven minor league seasons, including a .239/.322/.339 output in 381 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

Braves Extend Ozzie Albies

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The Braves continued to lock up their core pieces Thursday, announcing a contract extension with second baseman Ozzie Albies that’ll guarantee the 22-year-old a total of $35MM from 2019-25. He’ll earn $1MM apiece in 2019 and 2020, $3MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, and $7MM annually from 2023 through 2025.

The contract includes a pair of club options reportedly valued at $7MM apiece; the first one comes with a $4MM buyout. If both are exercised, Albies will earn a mere $45MM over the next nine seasons — four of which would have been free-agent years.

Ozzie Albies | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY SportsAlbies was already under control through 2023 but will now join Ronald Acuna Jr. in comprising a core that the Braves can build around beyond that point in time. Acuna’s contract was deemed by many to be bargain, but the Albies deal runs nearly the same length while checking in at just under one third of the total maximum value.

In terms of overall guarantee, Albies topped fellow second baseman Ketel Marte, though he did so only by giving away additional years of control. Historically speaking, there’s little to no precedent for a player this young and of this caliber surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons for a maximum payout under $50MM. While there’s surely something to be said for accepting a first life-changing payday — particularly with arbitration still two years away — Albies was on track to become a free agent upon completion of his age-26 season. For comparison’s sake, Scooter Gennett earned $18MM over this three arb years despite not breaking out until he was in his first arbitration season. Jonathan Schoop, who was non-tendered after his second arbitration season, signed a one-year deal with the Twins and will earn $19.475MM across what would’ve been his three arb seasons.

Setting aside second basemen and merely looking at players who signed extensions with between one and two years of Major League service, Christian Yelich (seven years, $49.57MM), Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58MM) and Anthony Rizzo (seven years, $41MM) all topped the Albies guarantee handily — and did so more than four years ago. If Albies was dead-set on an extension, a $50MM baseline would have been at least commensurate with market trends — especially considering the multiple options over free-agent seasons. Instead, the deal checks in more along the lines of dated extensions signed by Starling Marte, Jedd Gyorko and Gregory Polanco.

Frankly, this seems like the type of deal that an agent would strongly advise his client not to take. Perhaps Albies simply wanted to take the largest guarantee the Braves were willing to offer; he received just a $350K signing bonus as a prospect, after all, and his career earnings to date may not even total seven figures. From a purely human standpoint, it’s hard for any 22-year-old player without much in the way of career earnings to rebuff $35MM under the guise that he’ll earn more on a year-to-year basis beginning 24 months down the line. Presumably, all of the points made here were spelled out to Albies before he made what amounts to a life-altering decision.

The contract serves as a reminder that the teams hold overwhelming leverage in instances such as this, and the Atlanta organization took full advantage of that reality. It’s nothing short of a coup for the Braves to land Albies for a maximum of $45MM over the next nine years just weeks after Eloy Jimenez signed a deal that can pay him as much as $75MM over eight years before he ever played a single MLB game.

Albies, meanwhile, entered his second full big league campaign in 2019 with a career .268/.317/.453 batting line to go along with 30 homers, 49 doubles, 10 triples and 22 stolen bases (in 26 attempts). He’s off to a fast start thus far, too, having posted a .929 OPS through the season’s first 11 games. Long one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, Albies earned what figures to be the first of multiple All-Star nods last year as part of a season that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs pegged at 3.8 wins above replacement. Given the output he’s already demonstrated to this point in his career, it seems unfathomable that Albies wouldn’t have taken home at least $10-15MM in arbitration, and the more realistic scenario (as evidenced by Schoop and Gennett) is that he’d have done quite a bit better.

The Braves may very well try to spin the Acuna and Albies extensions as big expenditures that’ll buy some good will with fans after a quiet offseason in which they did not spend at anywhere near the level they implied to fans several months ago. And Braves fans, to be clear, should be thrilled by both deals. However, these types of deals aren’t the type that a team can legitimately claim as alternatives to spending in free agency and in taking on salary via trades; rather, they’re the type of contracts that should empower a team to spend in those arenas, knowing full well that paying market rate for other talent is offset by the overwhelming bargains they’ve secured over a pair of homegrown assets.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported the terms (Twitter links), with Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeting the annual breakdown.

Nationals’ Potential Deal With Bud Norris Falls Through

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The Nationals’ potential agreement with free-agent righty Bud Norris has fallen through, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The organization felt that the 34-year-old veteran was as much as a month away from MLB readiness, and the team’s preference is to find bullpen help that is more immediately available.

Norris was in camp with the Blue Jays on a minor league contract and received a $100K retention bonus to remain in the organization’s minor league ranks beyond the end of Spring Training. However, the two side agreed to a release last week due to what appears to be similar circumstances; Norris reportedly felt ready to join the Jays’ big league club sooner rather than later, but the Toronto organization wanted him to continue building arm strength in extended Spring Training.

With his hopes of signing in D.C. dashed, Norris will remain on the free-agent market as he seeks a different opportunity. With two clubs deeming him unready for near-term MLB action, it seems likely that he’ll need to build up strength somewhere before he ultimately returns to a Major League mound. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported in early April that Norris, who averaged 94.6 mph on his fastball in 2018, was sitting in the 90-91 mph during workouts.

If and when Norris does work up to his previous velocity levels, he should be able to help out the majority of big league bullpens. While his career as a starter took a southward turn in 2016, he’s posted strong results over the past two seasons as a reliever. Dating back to Opening Day 2017, Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also posted a swinging-strike rate north of 12 percent over that two-year span — easily a career best — and last season also set a new highwater mark with a hefty 35.9 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

Orioles To Select Josh Lucas, Place Richard Bleier On Injured List

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The Orioles have lockers set up for right-hander Josh Lucas and lefty Tanner Scott this morning, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (all Twitter links), indicating that both have been brought up to the Major League roster. Lucas isn’t on the team’s 40-man roster, so his contract will be formally selected prior today’s 12:35 ET starting time. Baltimore already optioned Josh Rogers to Triple-A Norfolk following last night’s game, creating one vacancy on the 25-man roster, and the other will be created by placing lefty Richard Bleier on the injured list.

Lucas, 28, signed a minor league pact with the Orioles back in late November. His experience at the MLB level is limited, though he’s appeared in each of the past two big league seasons: with the Cardinals in 2017 and the Athletics in 2018. He’s tallied just 21 2/3 frames in that time, working to a 5.40 ERA with a 21-to-13 K/BB ratio and a promising 54.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Lucas doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting 91-92 mph with his fastball, but he’s induced a solid 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate and a strong 33.8 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. He’ll come to the O’s with a nice Triple-A track record, having logged a 3.32 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and above-average ground-ball tendencies.

Bleier, despite a lack of missed bats, was the Orioles’ most effective reliever from 2017-18. Through 4 1/3 innings this season, though, he’s already allowed as many runs (seven) as he did through 32 2/3 frames last year. Bleier’s 2019 season was cut short by a lat tear that required surgery, and it’s possible that he’s still dealing with some lingering effects from that procedure.

Prior to Opening Day, he’s totaled 119 innings in the Majors between the Yankees and O’s, pitching to an immaculate 1.97 ERA despite averaging 4.1 K/9. Bleier’s pristine control (1.6 BB/9) and knack for avoiding hard contact have helped him thrive to this point in his big league career. If he can get back on track between now and July, he’d stand out as a possible trade candidate; the late-blooming Bleier will turn 32 next week but has three years of team control remaining beyond 2019.

The 24-year-old Scott, meanwhile, is already on the 40-man roster after spending the bulk of the 2018 season with the Orioles. Last year, he logged a lackluster 5.40 ERA but did punched out 76 batters in just 53 1/3 innings of Major League relief. The flamethrower has averaged better than 97 mph on his heater at the MLB level with a gaudy 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate and 36.6 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches. If Scott can rein in his control (4.7 BB/9), he has the makings of a quality late-inning reliever; fielding-independent pitching metrics are already quite bullish on him as it is (3.40 FIP, 2.96 xFIP, 3.18 SIERA in 2018).

AL West Notes: Bregman, Mariners, Chirinos

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There’s no defined timetable for when Alex Bregman will return to the Astros’ lineup, though the star third baseman tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) that an MRI of his ailing right hamstring didn’t reveal anything similar to the 2016 issue that cost him a few weeks of the season. For the time being, Bregman is simply considered day to day, and there’s yet to be any indication that a trip to the injured list is a particular concern for him or the team.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Mariners’ analytics department identified the revamped changeup of right-hander Brandon Brennan as a pitch worth taking a chance on in the Rule 5 Draft, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com, and to this point the team’s investment has paid off nicely. Brennan has been unscored upon in 8 2/3 innings with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and a terrific 63.2 percent ground-ball rate. Brennan, who’ll turn 28 this summer, is older than most Rule 5 selections and spoke all the more appreciatively of the opportunity in his interview with Johns. Not only does he relish any big league opportunity as a 27-year-old rookie, but Brennan received the surreal experience of making his MLB debut in the same half-inning that Ichiro Suzuki was pulled from his final game to an uproarious standing ovation in his native Japan. The Mariners will have to carry Brennan all season or else expose him to waivers and, if he clears, offer him back to the White Sox for $50K. So far, he’s given Seattle no reason to do so.
  • Jake Kaplan of The Athletic takes a look at the changes Robinson Chirinos has made to his game since signing with the Astros (subscription required). Chirinos details the drills he worked on throughout Spring Training to change his setup behind the plate as well as the slight alteration to his throwing motion — made at the behest of pitching coach Brent Strom after noticing a mechanical flaw. The season is still extraordinarily young, but Chirinos has drawn slightly positive marks in pitch framing, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, after ranking as one of the game’s worst in that regard for much of his career. He’s also halted two of the seven stolen-base attempts against him thus far after catching just 10 percent of thieves in 2018. Only time will tell if the changes yield quantifiable improvements, but that’ll be an interesting thread for both Astros and Rangers fans to follow over the course of the season.

Orioles Return Rule 5 Pick Drew Jackson To Dodgers

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that Rule 5 pick Drew Jackson has cleared outright waivers and been returned to the Dodgers organization. He’ll be assigned to a minor league affiliate but won’t require placement on Los Angeles’ 40-man roster. He’d been designated for assignment when the Orioles signed Dan Straily.

Jackson, 25, appeared in three games with the O’s before being designated for assignment but received just four plate appearances. He’s still looking for his first big league hit but will now have to bide his time in the minors as he awaits a fresh opportunity for that milestone.

Jackson has more than 1,000 innings of minor league experience at second base and north of 2100 innings at shortstop, though the O’s deployed him as an outfielder in his brief time with the organization. He spent the ’18 campaign with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate, where he hit .251/.356/.447 with 15 homers and 22 steals (in 29 attempts). He’s one of two Rule 5 picks who broke camp with the Orioles, joining shortstop (and No. 1 pick in last December’s draft) Richie Martin. Rostering multiple Rule 5 selections is difficult even for a rebuilding organization like the Orioles, though, and the O’s felt it prudent to evaluate other options both in the middle infield and in the outfield rather than dedicate the necessary playing time to do so with Jackson.

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