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Tanner Scott

Tanner Scott To Open Season As Dodgers’ Primary Closer

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The Dodgers signed arguably the two best closers available this winter when they landed both Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency last month. The pair of moves, along with their move to re-sign Blake Treinen earlier in the winter, bolstered an already excellent late-inning mix that included Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Alex Vesia. The moves raised the question, however, of who Los Angeles planned to lean on for the ninth inning. Manager Dave Roberts mostly put that question to bed when talking with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio this morning, however. In that conversation, Roberts said that Scott will receive the “brunt” of the club’s save opportunities to start the season.

That Scott would get the nod over Yates isn’t a complete surprise given the southpaw’s $72MM contract and his utterly dominant work over the past two seasons. The lefty has pitched to a 2.04 ERA in 150 innings of work with a 2.53 FIP over the past two seasons, picking up 34 saves in 40 chances along the way. He’s struck out 31.3% of his opponents in that time while walking 10%. Those dominant numbers should be good enough to close for just about any team, and that two-season track record can be argued to give Scott a leg up over Yates in terms of consistency, given that the right-hander pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.28 ERA with a lackluster 4.63 FIP in 61 appearances for the Braves in 2023.

With that being said, however, it’s fair to note that Yates has more experience in the closer role that Scott does. The soon to be 38-year-old veteran racked up nearly as many saves last year (33) as Scott did over the past two seasons, and led the majors in saves with the Padres back in 2019. While both pitchers have been used outside of the closer role throughout their careers, Yates is more entrenched in the ninth inning than Scott is. After all, Scott was moved out of the closer role in deference to San Diego’s hard-throwing righty Robert Suarez down the stretch just last summer, and was only used in the ninth inning or later for about a third of his total appearances with the Marlins in 2023. Yates also arguably had an even more dominant 2024 campaign than Scott did, as he pitched to an eye-popping 1.17 ERA with a 2.50 FIP and 35.9% strikeout rate for the Rangers last year.

Of course, that’s not to say Yates couldn’t get into some save situations at some point this year. Roberts stopped short of fully anointing Scott as the club’s closer, leaving room for Yates or other experienced late-inning arms like Treinen, Phillips, and Kopech to come in for a save opportunity should a situation call for it. The Dodgers have rarely stayed closely wedded to a full-time closer in the years since Kenley Jansen departed the club during the 2021-22 offseason, with ten or more players recording at least one save for the club in each of the last three seasons. Given that willingness to play matchups late in games rather than rely on a set bullpen hierarchy, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Dodgers continue with that approach to some degree even after investing significant dollars into Scott as their top closing option.

Dodgers Sign Tanner Scott

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Jan. 24: Scott’s deal also contains a conditional club option for the 2029 season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. That option, valued at $5MM plus incentives, would only be available if Scott suffers a “qualifying injury” and is not traded throughout the four-year term of his contract.

In essence, it’s likely a safety net for the Dodgers (and only the Dodgers) in the event of a major injury. Specifics regarding this option aren’t yet clear, though prior instances of conditional options such as this one typically revolve around UCL injuries. Scott does not have a no-trade clause, but he’d receive a $3MM assignment bonus if traded to another team, Ardaya adds.

Jan. 23: The Dodgers’ spending blitz formally continued Thursday, as they announced the signing of left-hander Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal. Scott, a client of the MVP Sports Group, reportedly receives a $20MM signing bonus on the contract, which contains $21MM of deferred money.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and the terms. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Robert Murray of FanSided added details about the signing bonus and deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Sign A.J. Minter

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The Mets announced that they have signed free agent reliever A.J. Minter. It’s reportedly a two-year, $22MM contract. The Bledsoe Agency client can opt out after the first season. The Mets had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.

It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.

Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.

The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.

The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.

All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league deal and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.

For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicated that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24 hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.

The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.

They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets had an agreement with Minter. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the two-year, $22MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the opt-out provision.

MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
  • What does parity mean? (5:25)
  • Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
  • How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
  • What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
  • How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
  • The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
  • The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs Interested In Carlos Estevez, Were Runners-Up For Tanner Scott

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7:15PM: The Cubs’ offer to Scott was a four-year deal worth $66MM, according to Jon Morosi.

5:43PM: Carlos Estevez ranked 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, making him the top reliever left available on the market now that Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Clay Holmes (who signed with the Mets as starter) have found new teams.  As one might expect, Estevez’s “market is intensifying,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports, with the Blue Jays and Cubs among the teams in on the 32-year-old righty.

Toronto’s interest in Estevez was first reported last month, and the Reds, Yankees, and Red Sox have also been linked to Estevez at various points this winter.  The Cubs are a new team in the hunt, adding to the perception that Chicago is willing to be much more aggressive than usual in pursuing relief pitching.

After the Dodgers signed Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (multiple links) reported that the Cubs were second in the bidding, with an offer thought to be “in the ballpark” of what Scott received from Los Angeles.  This tracks with the Friday report from Morosi suggesting that the Cubs were one of Scott’s “top remaining suitors,” which was the first time the Cubs had been linked to the southpaw all winter.

Coming even close to a four-year, $72MM offer for a reliever represents a huge sea change in how Chicago usually approaches its bullpen.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has never signed a reliever to a multi-year contract during his four-plus years in charge of the Cubs’ front office, and Hector Neris’ one-year, $9MM pact from a year ago represents the most money Hoyer has given to a relief pitcher.

Improving the relief corps was a stated goal for Hoyer heading into the offseason, and just earlier this week, the PBO stated that the team was still looking to add more to its bullpen.  Chicago’s biggest bullpen acquisitions of the winter have thus far fit Hoyer’s preferred lower-cost models — a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Caleb Thielbar, and trading for Eli Morgan, who will make $950K in 2025 and is arbitration-controlled through 20227.

Porter Hodge looked tremendous in his rookie season, to the point that he took over as the Cubs’ closer down the stretch when the team’s bullpen ranks were reduced by injury.  Hodge will certainly be in the high-leverage mix next year, though having him as a full-time closer could be a lot to ask of a second-year pitcher with just 43 big league innings on his resume.  Adding a veteran reliever with closing experience like Estevez makes a lot of sense for Chicago, even if Estevez might ultimately end up as a setup man if Hodge can handle being the primary ninth-inning option.

MLBTR projected Estevez for a three-year, $27MM contract, though it is unclear what exactly Estevez and his reps at Premier Talent are looking to land in second foray into the open market.  It is safe to say Estevez’s price tag will be much less than Scott’s contract, so if the Cubs were willing to venture into that spending area, Estevez should be well within their price range.  Signing Estevez to something in the range of MLBTR’s projection would also match the $9MM average annual value of the Neris contract, which could be more palatable for Hoyer.

It was two offseasons ago that Estevez signed a two-year, $13.5MM guarantee from the Angels, but it is safe to say his asking price has risen considerably after he established himself as a viable closing candidate.  Estevez has a 3.22 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies over the last two seasons, and the 2024 campaign saw him reduce both his walk rate and (more troublingly) his strikeout rate.  Philadelphia is seemingly taking a less-costly approach to its own bullpen, so there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a reunion between Estevez and the Phillies, plus Hoffman already signed with the Blue Jays.

Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays Had Interest In Tanner Scott

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Tanner Scott is headed to Chavez Ravine, as he became the Dodgers’ latest big-ticket acquisition when he signed a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today.  The Cubs, Braves, Mets, and Yankees had all been linked to Scott’s market earlier this winter, but various reports from this afternoon indicated that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox also had interest in the left-hander’s services.

The willingness of the Dodgers and other teams to give Scott four guaranteed years seemed to be the dealbreaker for at least a couple of teams.  The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo wrote that the Orioles and Red Sox, respectively, each had misgivings about that long of a commitment.  In particular, Cotillo poured cold water on speculation that Boston offered Scott a longer deal with a larger average annual value, as a source tells Cotillo that such reports of a bigger offer were “very inaccurate.”

The O’s still at least “remained engaged” on Scott “as of a few days ago,” Kostka wrote, which could speak to the team’s familiarity with the reliever.  Of course, Scott began his career as a Baltimore draft pick and spent his first five MLB seasons in an Orioles uniform, posting a 4.73 ERA over his 156 innings out of the team’s bullpen.  The big strikeout numbers and potential was clearly already present for Scott during his time in Baltimore, though it wasn’t until the 2023 season (when Scott was with the Marlins) that he finally seemed to solve his longstanding control problems.

Baltimore’s one-year, $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge from earlier this week also seems to generally line up with Kostka’s timeline, so it isn’t surprising that the O’s moved away from Scott after landing another high-leverage reliever at a much lower price tag.  Kittredge projects as the Orioles’ top setup man in front of closer Felix Bautista, who is returning after a year recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Kittredge is the highest-profile reliever the O’s have acquired this winter, while the Red Sox brought in Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson on guaranteed contracts, and a few other veterans on minor league deals.  As Cotillo notes, the Red Sox had talks with Scott, Kittredge, and several other relievers who have since signed contracts, as Boston continues to look for help at the back end of its bullpen.  Liam Hendriks is penciled into the closer’s role, though some depth is a necessity since Hendriks (like Bautista) also missed 2024 while rehabbing from a TJ procedure.

Toronto fans won’t be pleased to hear the Blue Jays lost another target to the Dodgers, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman indeed reports that the Jays “were among [the] teams in on Scott.”  The depth of the Blue Jays’ interest isn’t known, and since the Jays landed Jeff Hoffman last week, it seems possible that the Hoffman signing was a pivot away from Scott’s escalating market.

That said, the Blue Jays have already been more aggressive than usual in adding relief pitching, which isn’t a surprise given the dire performance of their 2024 bullpen.  Toronto has already added Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, and old friend Yimi Garcia as part of the bullpen overhaul, and depending on whether or not the Jays acquire another starting pitcher, Yariel Rodriguez might be part of the relief mix as well if he isn’t used as the fifth starter.

Tanner Scott Weighing Multiple Offers, Could Sign This Weekend

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The market may be heating up for free agency’s top reliever. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that Tanner Scott is weighing multiple multi-year offers and may choose his team by this weekend.

Morosi suggests that the Cubs are among Scott’s top suitors. Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this week that the bullpen is “probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency.” There’d be no bigger upgrade than Scott, though that’d be an out-of-character move for Hoyer’s front office. The Cubs have not signed a free agent reliever to a multi-year deal or a guarantee above $9MM in more than five years.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes that while the Cubs do indeed like Scott, they may be reluctant to meet the asking price. Previous reporting has suggested that Scott’s annual salary could approach $20MM on what’d presumably be a three- or four-year contract. Even if the money doesn’t quite get to that level, this would be a major investment. Scott should easily land the top reliever deal of the winter.

The Dodgers have been tied to Scott for months. After landing Roki Sasaki, a back-end reliever is the last box on L.A.’s offseason checklist. The Braves have also shown interest, while the Mets were more recently reported as a suitor. That no longer seems to be the case. New York agreed to terms with A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22MM guarantee this afternoon. Mike Puma of The New York Post reports that the Minter deal means the Mets are expected to drop their run at Scott.

Scott has been one of the best relievers in baseball for two seasons. He fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball for the Marlins in 2023. The 30-year-old southpaw was even better last year. Scott earned his first All-Star nod and combined for a sterling 1.75 earned run average through 72 frames between Miami and the Padres. He averages nearly 97 MPH on his fastball and has punched out at least 28% of opposing hitters in three straight seasons.

Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?

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After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.

Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.

That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).

Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.

Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ’pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.

The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.

The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.

The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.

Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.

There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.

So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:

Mets Interested In Tanner Scott

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The Mets are looking to add a reliever or two, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic, with left-hander Tanner Scott identified as one specific name they have interest in. Scott is one of the top free agent relievers and has also been connected to Atlanta, the Yankees and Dodgers this winter. Sammon adds that the Mets have already met with Scott, likely over phone or video.

Scott’s appeal is obvious in the numbers. Over the past two years, he has tossed 150 relief innings, allowing 2.04 earned runs per nine. His 10% walk rate over those years was a tad high, but he struck out 31.3% of batters faced and got grounders on 50.4% of balls in play. He also added 5 1/3 innings of scoreless postseason work over those seasons, which included four strikeouts of Shohei Ohtani in last year’s NLDS.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Scott to land a four-year deal worth $56MM, but it’s possible that will prove to be light. Essentially every starting pitcher has surpassed expectations this winter and that could spill over into the bullpen market as well. It was reported this week that Scott has enough interest that a deal with a $20MM average annual value is a possibility.

For the Mets, this represents a different tack to their rotation-building strategy, something that Sammon notes in his report. While owner Steve Cohen has seemingly unlimited financial resources, president of baseball operations David Stearns hasn’t gone for the top free agent pitchers.

Last year, he gave short-term deals to starters like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, but the Mets were entering something of a reset year in 2024. After they outperformed expectations and made the playoffs, it was speculated that Stearns could get more aggressive and go after arms like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell or Max Fried. Instead, he has re-signed Manaea, is trying to convert Clay Holmes from the bullpen to the rotation, and has taken buy-low fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning.

While that pivot to more aggressive spending didn’t happen with the rotation, perhaps it will come to pass with the bullpen. Stearns has never made huge financial investments in relievers, neither for the Mets nor the Brewers, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The deals for Holmes and Manaea top the list, followed by an early-career extension for Freddy Peralta, who eventually emerged as a viable big league starter in Milwaukee. No other reliever has received more than a $5.4MM guarantee from Stearns.

Last winter, as mentioned, the Mets were going into a year of uncertainty. Stearns gave modest deals to a number of relievers like Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Jorge López and others, none of them even getting a $5MM guarantee. The interest in Scott suggests that the Mets might have some willingness to pivot from that trend in the coming weeks, though time will tell if they actually follow through.

If they do, Scott would be a great fit for the bullpen. The Mets have Edwin Díaz as their closer but things are fairly open apart from that. José Buttó, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez project as some of the top options beyond Díaz but none of those three have even two years of big league service time. Danny Young is the only lefty reliever currently on the 40-man roster and he still has less than a year of service time. Slotting in Scott would bolster the group in terms of talent, experience and left-right balance.

According to RosterResource, the Mets are projected for a payroll of $280MM this year. That’s about $50MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll, so there could be lots of room to add bullpen help, even if they end up re-signing first baseman Pete Alonso. RR has the competitive balance tax number at $277MM, which means the club is already within striking distance of the third threshold of $281MM. However, they have blown way past the fourth and final tier in previous seasons, so that isn’t likely to be an obstacle for them. As a third-time payor, the Mets will face a 95% tax rate for spending beyond the third tier and a 110% rate for anything above the fourth.

Latest On Tanner Scott’s Market

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Tanner Scott remains unsigned as the top reliever in a slow-moving free agent class. The hard-throwing southpaw and right-hander Jeff Hoffman have been the best bullpen arms available all winter.

There hasn’t been much recent chatter on Scott, though that doesn’t appear to reflect a quiet market. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the All-Star closer is expected to receive interest from multiple big-market teams. Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam indicates that Scott could receive something like $20MM annually on what would surely be a multi-year contract.

The Dodgers have been most frequently linked to Scott. He was reportedly on the Yankees’ radar before they orchestrated the Devin Williams trade. The Athletic’s David O’Brien adds another team to the mix, reporting that the Braves have done background work on Scott. Cotillo indicates that the Red Sox are exploring the top of the reliever market generally, though that report doesn’t firmly link them to Scott in particular.

If Scott were to hit the $20MM AAV marker, he’d join rare company. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there are only two relievers who have signed for that amount — and those each come with asterisks. Nick Martinez accepted a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Reds this offseason. That’s a one-year commitment and Martinez is capable of starting. The only reliever to land $20MM+ on a long-term deal is Edwin Díaz. He signed a five-year, $102MM extension with the Mets two seasons ago. That came with upwards of $26MM in deferred money, though, dropping the net present value closer to $93MM. By that measure, Díaz’s true average annual value could be in the $18-19MM range.

By measure of NPV, Josh Hader set a new standard for reliever contracts with his five-year, $95MM term last winter. Hader has a longer track record than Scott, so it’d be a surprise if the latter got five years and an AAV around $20MM. A four-year deal should be in play, though. MLBTR predicted Scott for a four-year, $56MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. McAdam’s report may indicate that the bidding has pushed beyond that number.

Scott brings rare velocity from the left side. He averaged 97 MPH on his four-seamer and sat in the 88-89 range with his slider. Scott has topped 70 innings with an earned run average below 2.50 in consecutive seasons. He fired 72 innings of 1.75 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate between the Marlins and Padres last year. Scott added 4 1/3 scoreless frames with seven strikeouts in October, including a handful of punchouts of Shohei Ohtani during their Division Series matchup with the Dodgers.

The price tag complicates the Braves’ pursuit but doesn’t necessarily rule them out. Atlanta’s only free agent activity this offseason has been a trio of low-cost split contracts. They’ve rearranged the Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López contracts and offloaded the final two years of the Jorge Soler deal. Whether that’s to reallocate payroll space to a major acquisition or a reflection that they’re simply working with a tight budget remains to be seen.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves weren’t wedded to staying below the luxury tax threshold. Atlanta has paid the tax in consecutive seasons. RosterResource estimates their CBT number for next season around $218MM. That puts them $25MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They could sign Scott and remain narrowly below the tax line. Atlanta could lose A.J. Minter to free agency. They’ll be without Joe Jiménez for most or all of next season. Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee project as the top setup arms in front of closer Raisel Iglesias.

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