This week's mailbag addresses a potential Mike Trout trade, valuing Luis Arraez, how the White Sox and Cubs move forward, what an Elly De La Cruz extension might look like, Brett Baty's future, MLB's popularity, and much more.

Fred asks:

With the ever increasing annual salaries MLB stars are receiving, $36M just isn't what it used to be. Assuming he is amenable to a trade, is this the offseason someone (here's looking at you, Dave Dombrowski) takes a chance on Mike Trout's still tremendous upside? His salary could be offset with a bad contract or two (hello Taijuan Walker). He is far less expensive than Juan Soto will be.

$36MM is still a very large salary in MLB, currently tied for seventh all-time.  The actual CBT hit for a new team on Trout's remaining six years and $212.7MM would be similar at $35.45MM.

As an aside, four players signed contracts with $35-36MM AAVs in 2019: Trout, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon.  Five years later, only five players have managed to push into the $40MM realm, moving the needle modestly in this regard.

Trout said before the season that asking for a trade would be the "easy way out," but he also didn't rule out a future change of heart.  The Angels are on pace to lose about 95 games this year, they haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and there's little reason to expect the team to be good next year.  Despite his longstanding loyalty, it's plausible Trout could change his mind at some point.

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Today's mailbag gets into possible offensive additions for the Rangers, Bo Bichette trade scenarios, the White Sox and the record books, requiring starters to go six innings, Jordan Walker's future, and much more.

Kevin asks:

Do you see the Rangers getting a DH/ outfielder that hits for power?

Evan Carter was the Rangers' starting left fielder entering the season, but he struggled to hit and his season ended in May with a back injury.  Carter is only 22 years old and went into this season as one of the game's best prospects.  He'll have to re-establish himself a bit but I assume the Rangers will generally keep a spot open for him.

Carter could play center field, which was manned by Leody Taveras this year.  Taveras fits better in a fourth outfielder role.  But making Carter your starting center fielder coming off a serious back injury and without having proven himself as a big league hitter would be a risky plan.

Carter is something of a question mark, but then there's Adolis Garcia.  Garcia, 32 in March, is under contract for $9.25MM in 2025 and then potentially under control for 2026 as an arbitration-eligible player.  Garcia was an All-Star from 2021-23 before a lost '24.  Garcia's 2024 season has gone like this: insane in April, basically unplayable from May through July, and then about league average since August.  Do you trade him at a low point?  The bounceback potential is lower for a guy who will be turning 32.

Much-hyped rookie Wyatt Langford has logged 25 games at DH plus 729 innings in the outfield (mostly left).  23 in November, Langford has held his own with a league average bat, flashing star potential in June as well as over the last 10 days or so.  His likely home is left field.

The '23 Rangers saw big power from Carter (briefly), Corey Seager, Garcia, Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien, and Josh Jung.  Seager and Jung have continued to show pretty good power, and Langford certainly could next year.  Carter and Garcia are unknowns, with Semien joining them and not necessarily expected to bounce back at age 34.  The Rangers also don't get much pop at first base in Nathaniel Lowe.

A center fielder who can hit would fit better than a corner guy, but good luck finding one.  Luis Robert should be available, but he's coming off a Garcia-like season himself.  Cody Bellinger could fit on the Rangers position-wise, but he's posted a 105 wRC+ this season.  Bellinger's contract makes him hard to trade, as he'll make $27.5MM in '25 with a $25MM player option and $5MM buyout for '26 (assuming he doesn't opt out this winter).

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In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.

Jason asks:

Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?

Bob asks:

I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.

I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?

No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.

I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago.  Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season.  I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has.  But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.

At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about.  After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction.  We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market.  We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.

Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age.  He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%.  So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.

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In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.

Kevin asks:

The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?

Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea.  A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago.  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered.  Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.

One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll.  I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.

As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources.  A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.

Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:

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