Today's mailbag gets into Nolan Arenado's future with the Cardinals, offensive struggles for the Rangers and Red Sox, hot starts for the Angels and Giants, and much more.
Sam asks:
Arenado is off to a pretty good start with his surface level stats but his batted ball profile is still pretty bad. Barring an injury to a third baseman on a contender, is he going to be playing for the Cardinals for the next 3 years?
Arenado, 34 today, has an excellent 136 wRC+ through 74 plate appearances. His Statcast numbers have always been middling since he was traded to St. Louis four years ago. As you know, the Cardinals tried to move Arenado during the offseason, both to save money and open up playing time for younger players. Arenado wasn't willing to say yes when asked to approve a trade to the Astros in December, and no deal materialized with the four other teams on the third baseman's list.
In February, Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Cardinals "had conversations with at least nine organizations" about Arenado during the offseason. Woo said the other four teams on Arenado's list besides the Astros were the Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, and Yankees. The rigidity of Arenado's list is confusing. He said, "I don’t see myself changing that list ever. I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it." Arenado is clearly not bound entirely by geography, having chosen teams on both the East and West coast. But let's look at some playoff odds from when the season opened:
- Astros: 53.5%
- Dodgers: 97.6%
- Red Sox: 56.2%
- Padres: 35.1%
- Yankees: 62.3%
- Cardinals: 23.2%
- Tigers: 46.6%
- Royals: 41.8%
- Angels: 10.5%
Is it fair to say that for Arenado to leave the comfort of St. Louis he needs what he considers a strong chance at winning the World Series, but he might accept a lesser chance for a team near where he grew up, such as the Padres? What makes this tricky is that Arenado seems to have developed his own playoff odds. Playoff odds are not reliable in the best case, and Arenado is probably worse at this than FanGraphs.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Not sure why the rigidity of Arenado’s no-trade list is so confusing. What team are you thinking would make sense for him that didn’t make an effort, or that he should consider? Just the Astros?
The Tigers are a team that makes sense if he actually wanted to play there.
Cards – The Red Sox need Arenado a lot more, as their third baseman has an MLB-leading 4 errors and is on pace for 34 this season.
Rafaela for Arenado would be a win-win for both teams.
Do you also think Soderstrom is going to hit 80 home runs this year?
Tied with Lindor, JRam, Elly, Cruz, Shaw and Rocchio. Bregman will be fine.
Steve – Only JRam and Shaw are 3B.
Among all qualified 3B Bregman is also among the worst in DRS with zero, among the worst in OAA with -2, among the worst in DEF with -.4 and among the worst in Range with -1.
Let’s hope you’re right about him improving, for now we can blame it on his new baby ;O)
Bregman’s also played more than the guys he’s tied with. 165 defensive innings at 3rd. JRam and Shaw have 41 and 24 fewer respectively
Steve – I’m very glad you brought up the innings!
So many people here bashed Devers for his “MLB-leading errors” over the years, when in actuality he wasn’t even close to MLB-leading errors per inning.
In 2024 Devers had an error for every 95 innings, McMahon had an error for every 87 innings, Chapman had an error for every 89 innings, Paredes had an error for every 74 innings, Bohm had an error for every 78 innings. Garcia had an error for every 91 innings,
In 2023 Devers had an error for every 68 innings, Muncy had an error for every 66 innings, Sosa had an error for every 53 innings.
Look back at earlier years and you see the same exact thing. So are those people stupid, or just heavily biased against the Dominican Devers?
BTW – Bregman has the huge advantage of having an elite shortstop in Story covering most of the left side of the infield. Devers didn’t have that advantage with Story playing only 542 innings at SS combined from 2023-2024. He has had crap ever since Xander left.
It’s been 5 yrs since Story has been near elite defensively. You mention range for Bregman but fail to mention Story has also been negative in that regard.
Bottom line yes Bregman has made a few errors. He has also registered quite a few outs. He ll settle in at 3rd and he’s not going to finish the season with 44 errors.
The Tigers have Vierling at 3B once he returns from his injury. Arenado is way too expensive for his production. The money is better spent elsewhere
I agree, use the money for extensions or up grades at the deadline. Arenado isn’t that much better than what the Tigers have in house to go and spend the money AND give up any type of prospect capital!
@Lou On who exactly would that $ be better spent that is willing to come to DET? Tigers offered a deal to Bregman that he passed on. That $ was not spent elsewhere.
Next years free agent class is not going to be all that spectacular either.
Vierling should be a bench/utility player, not an everyday starting 3b. Tigers need to find someone.
Vierling put up a 3.0 WAR last year. He absolutely deserves an every day spot, just should not be at 3B.
1. Arenado’s contract burden.
2. Arenado is mediocre and declining
3. The acquiring team has to have a need, a want, and a budget for him. Unlikely.
4. The Cardinals are weird. They’re trying to get something back for him. Weird.
Maybe you’re the one that seems weird!!!
For thinking the Cardinals shouldn’t get anything for Arenado.
Arenado is winning games for the Cards this season!!! He’s valuable to the club!!!!
Cardinals Nation is glad he’s still with the club!!!!!
Cardinals have eon 6 of the last 17 games, they are scorching hot….
The Dodgers are who Arenado wants to play for. That’s his first choice and there is not a close 2nd. Muncy is off to a slow start i could see a deal getting done in July.
First, I’m not sure the Dodgers would give up on Muncy so quickly. Second, lots of players get off to slow starts before turning their seasons around.
Third, the Cardinals would only trade Arenado in-season if they fall out of contention by the trade deadline, which is looking less likely than it was at the start of the season. The one exception is if they can get an MLB player of similar value in return who fills a bigger need (such as Rasmus for assorted parts in 2011, Bader for Montgomery in 2022, or Edman for Fedde last year).
Cardinals don’t look like a contender to me. Obviously time will tell. And again Muncy is off to a slow start. If he bounces back they would be less interested but right now 3b is a weakness for the Dodgers. And Muncy could play 3b for the Cardinals and they could hope for a bounce back.
the Cards are .500 having lost 4/4 extra inning coin flips. They have been better than their record suggests. Sure, they still have to play the juggernaut teams, but they really ought to be 11-7 right now, and the offence seems to have really stepped up from last year.
All of which is a long way of saying the Cards look like a borderline playoff team atm, and it woukd need to he a sure thing for Arenado to bother with moving.
The Cardinals are 500 having played 12 of their 18 games at home. They are 1-5 on the road. They look like a 500 team at best.
They look like a .500 team.
Sometimes .500 teams win 87 games, so.etimes they win 75
If it goes like last year the team probably won’t sell. But it’s a fine line between that and being a sub 500 team. If the Cardinals are below 500 in July and the Dodgers are still the Dodgers I could see a deal getting done, especially if Muncy is still playing poorly.
K of C; and/or Muncy gets injured,,,,again.
I also still think Arenado will end up on the Dodgers.
Muncy is terrible and so is his defense. It’s been time to move on from him for awhile.
He can take Chris Taylor with him too.
👎🏻
I miss reading the exclusive content, but when I subscribed it kept logging me out every time I left the site, subjecting me to the ads I thought I paid to avoid. Fix that and I’m back in.
I’ll let Tim Dierkes know about your preferential treatment that you direly need help from the ads, racosun.
I would definitely help you with that. You’d just need to contact us so we can look into it.
I had the same issues getting kicked off. For me it was where I was at in my house. Moved WiFi and everyone has better access to internet. Just a thought
The salary cap questions are getting so old, and this one’s debate that “it works for other leagues” was the worst argument yet. Do people not realize that if given the choice every player in the NFL, NBA and NHL would drop the cap in a heart beat, because it pushes down player salaries. Players don’t want it and the big market team fans should not have to suffer a year without baseball because billionaires in Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh don’t want to spend money on good teams.
With all disrespect acting like spending a billion dollars on a team in la has the potential for the same return in Pittsburgh is disingenuous
Well, he is Uncle Steve’s lover. Love is blind.
No one needs to spend a billion on a team, it would be nice if your Owners were not pocketing both ur revenue and ur revenue sharing money and then crying poor that they can’t afford players. Also it doesn’t require the same return in order for it to still be a massively profitable investment, which all baseball teams are.
I love Ceddone but Boston’s position player depth is too strong for him to stay in the lineup with the kind of offense he’s been putting up.
Youk – I like your intentional misspelling of Rafaela’s first name, well played!!
Personally I don’t believe he’s “done” but the team can no longer justify him starting nearly every game. He really needs to be sent down or used as a bench player.
Timely comment on Robbie Ray.
That was an excruciating 100 pitches. Dude can fight though.
The Cards can afford to eat a good portion of the cheese still owed to Arenado. The Yankees would be the perfect fit for both Arenado, the Cards and the Bombers. Boston would be my second guess. Arenado would have a field day there putting dents in the Green Monster. But it appears the West Coast would whet Arenado’s appetite more than those two. Only problem is neither the Dodgers nor Padres appear to really need him. Even if Muncy is done the Dodgers have a bunch of players who could man 3B. They could move Tommy Edman there and call up Hye Seng Kim to play 2B. Like it or not, IMHO, no deal gets done with any team unless the Cards eat a whole lot of his remaining contract. With his recent production, he’s a luxury for most teams. To wit, I don’t think any team is clamoring to acquire him unless the price in $$ and prospects is low, very low.
Yup, and the Cardinals are not going to pay him to play for someone else.
Why wouldn’t they? A contract is an asset to traded just like anything else.
The asset is the player, the contract is only a benefit if u lock up a good player for cheap. Arenado is a declining asset saddled with a contract worth way more than he is at this point in his career. If the cardinals want to move him so they can play younger guys they will need to pay down a good portion of it or they will be stuck with him and his whole contract.
Arenado currently has the second best OPS+ of his career. He’s playing well. And perhaps you didn’t know this but his salary goes down in both 2026 and 2027.
At this exact moment I think he has positive trade value. To say the Cardinals would have to pay a good portion of the contract is simply not true.
Redsox need nothing.Will be in first by allstar break.
Rick – Haha …. thank you for the laugh, you never disappoint ;O)
While you’re at it, how about the winner for the Derby?
FPG: a horse with a silly name wins it this year.
What does Sam mean about batted ball is bad? His BABIP, according to Savant, is pretty close to his career average and his BA/OBP are higher than his career average. It’s just the SLG and OPS that are slightly lower.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nolan-arenado…