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Orioles To Acquire Trevor Rogers

By Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2024 at 1:15pm CDT

The Orioles are acquiring southpaw starting pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  The Marlins will receive second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby in the deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.  Miami also gets outfielder Kyle Stowers, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Rogers marks the Orioles’ second recent rotation addition, after they acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays four days ago.  Rogers, 27 in November, owns a 4.53 ERA, 18.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, and 46.9% groundball rate in 105 1/3 innings this year.  Rogers has a 3.17 ERA over his last nine starts, but with no apparent improvement in his skills.

Rogers was at his best three years ago, when he made the All-Star team and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting by posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings.  He averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball that year, and looked like one of the game’s best young starters.  The lefty had a strong pedigree, as well, having been drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2017.

Things took a turn in 2022, as Rogers’ strikeout rate plummeted and he missed a month with lower back spasms.  That season also ended a bit early due to a lat strain.  2023 was worse, as Rogers’ season ended in April after four starts due to a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right lat.

Rogers then entered the arbitration system, and is earning $1.53MM this year.  He remains under team control through 2026.  Rogers has avoided the IL thus far this year, but it’ll be up to Orioles pitching coach Drew French and the rest of the staff to attempt to help him regain his 2021 form.  Rogers’ average fastball velocity is down to 92.2 miles per hour this year, a notable 2.4 mile per hour drop from his one stellar season.

Having lost Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to Tommy John surgery, the first-place Orioles have a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Rogers.  Burnes and Means are eligible for free agency after the season, leaving Rodriguez, Kremer, and new additions Eflin and Rogers for 2025.

The Orioles had been connected to Garrett Crochet and Blake Snell, and could theoretically add one of them in the next three-plus hours, but are likely done with their rotation at this point.  Aside from Eflin and Rogers, Orioles executive vice president and GM Mike Elias also bolstered his bullpen by acquiring Seranthony Dominguez last week.

Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix did quite well in adding a pair of Major League-ready position players for two-plus years of Rogers.

Norby, 24, ranked 93rd on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season.  Prior to this season, BA gave Norby a 50 grade, calling him a “bat-first second baseman” who can also handle left field.  The former 2021 second-rounder has spent most of the season repeating Triple-A, and has shown quite well with a 134 wRC+ in 80 games.  He’s gotten a few brief looks with the Orioles due to Jorge Mateo’s injuries, but has only played in nine big league games so far.  Norby is under the Marlins’ control through 2030 and will likely receive regular playing time at second base for the rest of the season.

Stowers, 26, was drafted by the Orioles in the second round out of Stanford in 2019.  Known for his big raw power from the left side, Stowers has been unable to secure regular playing time on the stacked Orioles since his 2022 debut.  Stowers, who is best-suited for right field, will get that chance with the Marlins.  Like Norby, Stowers has spent most of the season at Triple-A, posting a decent 115 wRC+.

If the Marlins did indeed come up with a pair of controllable regulars for a back-end starter in Rogers, it’ll be quite the win as Bendix makes his mark on the team.

At the time of this writing, Bendix still has three-plus hours remaining to further remake the Marlins, likely by dismantling his bullpen and possibly trading outfielder Bryan De La Cruz.  The team’s 2024 rotation is particularly bare with the departure of Rogers, leaving Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, and Kyle Tyler.  Jesus Luzardo is working his way back from a lumbar stress reaction, Ryan Weathers is recovering from an index finger strain, and Braxton Garrett is on the IL for a forearm strain.  Next year, the team will get Sandy Alcantara and eventually Eury Perez back from Tommy John surgery.

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Baltimore Orioles Miami Marlins Newsstand Transactions Connor Norby Trevor Rogers

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Marlins Could Trade Multiple Relievers

By Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2024 at 9:28am CDT

With a 97 mile per hour fastball and a 29% strikeout rate, Marlins lefty Tanner Scott is one of the better relievers likely to be dealt today – especially since he’s eligible for free agency after the season.  But it’s also worth considering several lower-profile members of the Marlins’ bullpen, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic naming Huascar Brazoban, Anthony Bender, and Declan Cronin as trade candidates in an article today.

The Marlins already traded their setup man, A.J. Puk, to the Diamondbacks five days ago.  Third in leverage index for manager Skip Schumaker over the last month after Scott and Puk: Brazoban.  Brazoban, 35 in October, broke into the Majors with the Fish as a 32-year-old.  His fastball sits around 96 miles per hour, and this year he’s improved both his strikeout and walk rates to reach 27.2% and 8.8%, respectively.  He also has a healthy 50% groundball rate.  Team control is perhaps less exciting for a player soon to turn 35, but Brazoban will not be eligible for arbitration until 2026, and would reach free agency after 2028.

Brazoban has shined over his last ten appearances, with no runs allowed and a 34.5 K%.  He could be just as effective as some of the household names changing teams this month, and he’s earning a mere $753K.

Rosenthal also mentioned Bender, a 29-year-old righty who missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.  Bender has bounced back from the procedure to post a 3.83 ERA, 24.4 K%, and 7.0 BB%, and 49.1% groundball rate on the season.  However, Bender’s velocity has not returned, as he was at 98.1 prior to surgery and sits at 95.5 this year.  His usage suggests he’s mostly been outside Schumaker’s circle of trust this year, but in allowing one run over his last 14 appearances, that’s changing.  Bender is earning $770K this year as a Super Two player, and he’s under team control through 2027.

Cronin, 27 in September, was a February waiver claim from the Astros, who had claimed him from the White Sox.  The righty has worked to a solid 25 K%, 7.9 BB%, and 54.2% groundball rate this year, racking up 50 1/3 innings.  More than half of his appearances have been more than one inning, and he’s been going two-plus often of late.  He’s potentially under team control through 2029.

Earlier this month, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald named Scott, Calvin Faucher, and Cronin as potential Marlins bullpen trade candidates, and wouldn’t rule out Andrew Nardi.  It’s safe to assume Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix will be listening today on his entire bullpen, and there’s a good chance of more trades.  And while this post focused on some new relief names, Rosenthal reminds us that starting pitcher Trevor Rogers and left fielder Bryan De La Cruz are candidates to move as well.

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Miami Marlins Uncategorized Anthony Bender Declan Cronin Huascar Brazoban

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Cubs Have Not Approached Jameson Taillon About Potential Deals

By Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2024 at 8:40am CDT

When the Cubs signed righty Jameson Taillon to a four-year, $68MM deal in December 2022, that contract included a 10-team no-trade clause.  According to Taillon last night (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic), “I haven’t had to say yes or no to anything.”

Taillon, who professed his love for Chicago, coughed up six runs in four and a third innings to the Reds in Cincinnati last night.  He’ll turn 33 in November.  Taillon’s average fastball velocity is down a full tick this year, with his strikeout rate falling to 19.1%.  Though his ERA was 4.84 last year and currently sits at 3.35, there hasn’t been a skill change in these 18 starts.

Given that Taillon is owed $18MM in each of the 2025 and ’26 seasons, it’s possible the Cubs could look to get out of that commitment.  In the best case scenario, they could also extract some useful players from a market that saw the Astros provide a strong return for lefty Yusei Kikuchi.  Though the Cubs’ acquisition of Isaac Paredes from the Rays signaled an intention to retool and compete next year, trading Taillon before today’s 5pm central deadline could still make sense.

As Mooney notes, the Astros were one of the teams that had been connected to Taillon.  The Padres, Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox have also been linked, though Baltimore picked up Zach Eflin.  We’ve also seen the Brewers, Cardinals, Royals, and Red Sox add starting pitching this month.  If he is to trade Taillon today, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has to contend with several better options being available on the market like Jack Flaherty, Garrett Crochet, and Blake Snell, plus similar ones in Nestor Cortes and Tyler Anderson.

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Chicago Cubs Jameson Taillon

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Yankees Discussing Jack Flaherty Trade, Planning To Deal Nestor Cortes If Completed

By Tim Dierkes | July 29, 2024 at 3:41pm CDT

The Yankees are in “extensive trade talks” for Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  The Yankees plan to trade starter Nestor Cortes if they land Flaherty, adds Nightengale.  Earlier today, we learned that Flaherty has been scratched from tonight’s start against the Guardians, with a trade expected soon.

Flaherty, who will be a free agent after the season, has experienced a resurgence this season and is sporting a career-best 27.5 K-BB% through 18 starts.  The Tigers are 5.5 games out in the wild card and are a long shot to reach the playoffs, so Flaherty seems very likely to be dealt before tomorrow’s 5pm central time trade deadline.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are one game back of the Orioles in the AL East and currently hold a wild card spot.  The Yanks have limped to an 8-13 record in July, though they won their last two at Boston.  Senior vice president and GM Brian Cashman added Jazz Chisholm Jr. via trade yesterday, and is known to be seeking reinforcements for the pitching staff.

The New York Post’s Joel Sherman connected the Yankees to Flaherty on Saturday, and Sherman’s colleague Jon Heyman reported Cortes’ availability earlier today.  Flaherty would form a dynamic 1-2 punch with ace Gerrit Cole.  Even sans Cortes, the club could be adequately covered for the rest of the regular season with Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Luis Gil, with Clarke Schmidt on the mend from a lat strain.  It’s also worth noting that Gil will surpass his professional career-high in innings (108 2/3) if he records five or more outs tonight in Philadelphia, so the Yankees may need to back off to keep him fresh for October.

Cortes, who leads the Yankees with 124 1/3 innings this year, owns a 4.13 ERA at present.  With a 17.4 K-BB%, he’s an entirely capable big league pitcher, though he lacks the strikeout stuff Flaherty has shown this year.  Cortes is under team control through 2025 as an arbitration eligible player, and will earn a raise on this year’s $3.95MM salary.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Yankees’ competitive balance tax payroll currently sits around $315MM.  The club pays a 110% tax on anything above $297MM.  A Cortes-Flaherty contract swap-out would increase the team’s CBT hit by around $3.3MM for the remainder of the season, which would carry a tax of about $3.6MM.  But given that the Yankees are considering all sorts of different scenarios, we won’t know where the dust settles until about 24 hours from now.

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Detroit Tigers New York Yankees Jack Flaherty Nestor Cortes

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Lucas Erceg “Drawing Significant Interest”

By Tim Dierkes | July 29, 2024 at 2:46pm CDT

Hard-throwing Athletics righty reliever Lucas Erceg is “drawing significant interest,” according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  Erceg, 29, is controllable for five seasons beyond this one.

Erceg, a second round pick by the Brewers back in 2016, had served as a two-way player in college but didn’t get serious about pitching until 2021.  This year, his second for the A’s, Erceg has cut his formerly worrisome walk rate down to 8.3%.  That’s paired with a healthy 26.3 K% and a 98.8 average fastball velocity that ranks 13th in MLB.  Erceg also has a strong 50.5% groundball rate and excellent barrel and hard-hit rates, so the ingredients are in place for an ERA lower than his current 3.68 mark.

Erceg spent a couple weeks on the IL for forearm tightness earlier this season.  He’s shown no ill effects with his fastball velocity, but did struggle for a couple of weeks upon his return.  Erceg’s past three outings have been scoreless, however, including a save Friday in Los Angeles.

Erceg’s bullpen-mate Mason Miller, one of the few relievers in baseball who throws harder, fractured his left pinkie a few days ago.  That moves Erceg up in the pecking order for A’s manager Mark Kotsay, along with fellow trade candidate Scott Alexander.  According to Rosenthal, the A’s have also “exchanged names” with teams on Alexander, a veteran lefty who bears little resemblance to Erceg as a pitcher.

Michael Kopech, who sits just above Erceg on the velocity rankings, landed with the Dodgers in a three-team deal Monday afternoon.  ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel connected the Phillies to both relievers earlier today, though he was unsure how the Phillies’ acquisition of Carlos Estevez affects their interest. Erceg, who will not be arbitration-eligible 2026 at the earliest, could be of particular appeal to teams with competitive balance tax concerns.

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Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Lucas Erceg Scott Alexander

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Jack Flaherty Scratched From Start Tonight; Trade Expected Soon

By Tim Dierkes | July 29, 2024 at 1:16pm CDT

Tigers righty Jack Flaherty is being scratched from tonight’s start in Detroit against the Guardians, according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Heyman says a trade “should be expected soon,” so the Tigers aren’t taking any chances.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press isn’t aware of a deal in place, but agrees the Tigers “still plan to trade him.”

Flaherty, 29 in October, has a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts this year.  Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, his 32 K% ranks fifth in all of MLB.  Flaherty will be a rental, given the one-year, $14MM deal he signed with the Tigers back in December.  The Tigers enter play tonight 5.5 games out in the wild card race, but their estimated 5.2% chance at the playoffs evidently is not enough to convince president of baseball operations Scott Harris to hang on to his co-ace and just issue a qualifying offer after the season.

Flaherty, a first-round pick by the Cardinals a decade ago, finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2019.  An oblique strain cost him more than two months in 2021, after which he strained his shoulder and had to work out of the bullpen.  Shoulder issues persisted into 2022, a season in which Flaherty tallied only 36 innings.  Amid an unimpressive ’23 season, the Cardinals shipped their former ace to the Orioles in an uneventful deal.  Just shy of a year later, the old Jack Flaherty is back, to the great benefit of the Tigers and his likely new team.  Flaherty missed a few starts in June due to a back injury, but he avoided the IL and has taken his last three turns with excellent results.

If a Flaherty trade is prospect-focused, it will represent a nail in the coffin on the Tigers’ 2024 season.  The club’s rotation depth is perilously thin behind Tarik Skubal and Flaherty, featuring veteran Kenta Maeda and rookie Keider Montero.  Reese Olson is on the IL with an apparently mild shoulder injury, while Casey Mize is working his way back from a hamstring injury.

Flaherty is a top target for many contenders, given his excellence, past success, and availability.  The Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros have been linked to him, and even the Orioles haven’t been ruled out despite the pitcher’s struggles with that club last year.  That’s likely not a complete list of suitors for Flaherty.

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Detroit Tigers Jack Flaherty

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | July 29, 2024 at 9:55am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Sponsored: Rapsodo Athletes Shine At 2024 MLB Draft

By Tim Dierkes | July 25, 2024 at 10:48am CDT

The following is a paid advertisement from Rapsodo. Rapsodo is the leading provider of baseball analytics technology, offering simulators that combines high-speed cameras and radar to capture and analyze athlete performance metrics. From pitch velocity and spin rate to launch angle and exit velocity, Rapsodo’s products provide comprehensive data to help pitchers refine their mechanics, hitters improve their swings, and coaches make data-driven decisions to enhance team performance.

The 2024 MLB Draft has officially wrapped up. It featured an exciting first round live from Cowtown Coliseum in Fort Worth, which included Travis Bazzana going first overall. MLB clubs then flew through 19 more rounds, picking the future faces of their franchise.

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Burns was the first of Rapsodo’s NIL athletes to be drafted in the 2024 MLB Draft and it didn’t take long. The Wake Forest pitcher was picked up by the Cincinnati Reds with the second overall pick of the draft.

Chase was originally projected as the sixth best prospect by MLB Pipeline, so the jump to No. 2 was a pleasant surprise. The 6’4” right-handed pitcher led all of D1 Baseball with 191 strikeouts, 30 K’s more than the next closest pitcher.

With his signature fastball that tops out at 101 MPH and a spin rate of 2,700 RPMs, he also mixes in a slider, curveball, and circle changeup into his pitch arsenal.

Jac Caglianone – TWP (1st Round, 6th Pick)

Drawing comparisons to Shohei Ohtani as the next great two-way player, Jac Caglianone was the sixth overall pick of the draft, getting picked by the Kansas City Royals.

The LHP/1B combo can touch 100 MPH on the mound and 115+ MPH off the bat. He hit 68 home runs over his last two seasons at Florida which included a stretch of hitting a home run in nine straight games, tying an NCAA record.

As a pitcher the lefty struck out 170 through 34 appearances (148 1/3 innings) across his three years in Gainesville.

The Royals will allow him to start his MLB career as a two-way player.

Vance Honeycutt – OF (1st Round, 22nd Pick)

Honeycutt is a five-tool player out of North Carolina and was taken by the Baltimore Orioles with their first round selection.

As one of the best defensive outfielders in this year’s draft, the former Tar Heel helped lead his team to the College World Series, including a walk-off hit in the opening game against Virginia.

Vance finished his career in Chapel Hill with 65 HRs and 76 stolen bases. Honeycutt slashed .318/.410/.714 this season with 28 HRs and 28 stolen bases, ranking 1st and 3rd in the ACC.

Blake Burke – 1B (CB-A, 34th Pick)

The biggest jump made by a Rapsodo athlete in the MLB Draft was Blake Burke. The first baseman, originally projected 66th by MLB, was taken with the 34th overall pick by the Milwaukee Brewers.

The power hitter was part of the College World Series champions Tennessee Volunteers, hitting 50 home runs in his time at Knoxville, which ranks second all-time.

Burke made a huge contribution to the Volunteers championship season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. He batted .379 with 108 hits, 20 home runs and 61 RBIs – all of which were career bests.

Brody Brecht – RHP (CB-A, 36th Pick)

As a two-sport athlete playing for Iowa baseball and football, Brecht decided to focus on baseball this season. The decision paid off for the Ankeny native, as he was picked by the Colorado Rockies.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Rooker, Orioles, Padres

By Tim Dierkes | July 24, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

Today's mailbag marks the last one before the trade deadline, and covers the likelihood of Tarik Skubal and Brent Rooker trades, what the Orioles, Padres, Tigers, and other teams might do, and much more.   For further discussion of many of these topics, check out the MLBTR podcast as well.

Paul asks:

How aggressive do you see Detroit being in moving Tarik Skubal? As an O's fan I am wondering if a package centered around Basallo and some lesser guys like Norby and Stowers could get it done.

I do not expect the Tigers to trade Skubal.  They've got the AL Cy Young favorite under control through 2026 at well below-market arbitration prices.  In a couple of months, president of baseball operations Scott Harris will reach his two-year anniversary with the team.  Trading Skubal right now seems like a bit of a surrender for 2025-26, at a point in his tenure where it seems like Harris should increasingly be pushing chips in.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | July 22, 2024 at 10:05am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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