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Trade Targets With Control

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2013 at 10:41am CDT

Rentals such as Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Matt Garza, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco, Edinson Volquez, and Frank Francisco figure to have their names kicked around the trade market this summer, assuming decent performance from the players and a lack of playoff potential from their employers.  More appealing, however, are players who are under team control beyond this year.  Names to watch:

  • David Price, Rays.  Price owns a 6.25 ERA on the season, but his struggles with the longball and hits allowed shouldn't last.  However, his average fastball velocity is at a career-worst 93.3 miles per hour.  The Rays remain a legitimate contender, but if they fall back over the next few months and Price's numbers stabilize, there will be a feeding frenzy.  He's under team control through 2015, though only a few select teams could assemble the necessary package of premium young talent.
  • Chase Headley, Padres.  The Padres have talked about making a franchise-record offer to retain Headley, which doesn't mean much since their biggest contract was worth $52MM.  If Headley sticks to his word of not negotiating during the season, the Padres must choose between trading him this summer at peak value, or being forced to deal him during the offseason if talks break down.  The Padres could also look to move controllable players such as Carlos Quentin, Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, and Nick Hundley.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins.  The young slugger is under control through 2016.  He's currently on the DL with a hamstring strain, and the Marlins probably won't want to sell low on the biggest trade chip this summer.  The Marlins may weigh trading Kevin Slowey (under control through next year) or Steve Cishek (through 2017).
  • Josh Willingham, Twins.  The Twins are only a game under .500, but if they fall out contention, Willingham could command a premium since he is signed affordably through 2014.  The Twins also have appealing, under-contract relievers in Glen Perkins and Jared Burton.
  • Andre Ethier, Dodgers.  The Dodgers could look to unload Ethier's contract, which pays $52MM over 2014-17.
  • Jake Peavy, White Sox.  Assuming Peavy's back spasms turn out to be a minor issue, the Sox could market him as something close to an ace.  He's signed through next year but can trigger a player option for 2015 by meeting certain criteria.  Alex Rios and Matt Thornton could be popular as well.
  • Tommy Hanson, Angels.  If the Angels aren't contending and feel they might non-tender Hanson after the season, a trade makes sense.  Same goes for the Brewers' John Axford and the Padres' Clayton Richard.
  • Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Wesley Wright, Justin Maxwell, Chris Carter, Astros.  No one seems off-limits on the Astros, though Jose Altuve would be extremely difficult to pry loose.  Norris is under team control through 2015, Harrell through '17.
  • Cliff Lee, Phillies.  Lee is under contract through 2015, with a pricey club/vesting option for '16.  He can block trades to 21 teams each season.  If the Phillies decide to blow up the roster, getting a deal similar to Boston's purge of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett could work.  Lee could serve as the Gonzalez piece, with Ryan Howard tacked on to fill the Crawford role.
  • Ike Davis and Jon Niese, Mets.  I generally considered these two as building blocks for the Mets before this season, but if they're playing acceptably this summer I wonder if the team might be willing to discuss them.  Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell would hold appeal to other teams as well.
  • Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus, Cubs.  Owing Soriano $18MM for 2014 is generally not viewed as a plus, but he is technically controllable.  With a $6.5MM club option for '14, DeJesus is more appealing.  The Cubs could shop Carlos Villanueva, Scott Hairston, and Nate Schierholtz as well.  It's also worth noting that team ace Jeff Samardzija is under control only through 2015, so if the team can't lock him up and things look bleak for '14, they should entertain offers.
  • The Blue Jays are 11-21 on the season and appear likely to become deadline sellers.  While controllable players such as Brandon Morrow and Colby Rasmus would draw interest, it seems more likely to me that the Jays will re-tool and make another push for 2014.  If so, dealing controllable players might not make sense.  I feel similarly about the Brewers.
  • The most commonly traded controllable players are, of course, prospects.  We may see names like Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt (Rangers), Nick Castellanos (Tigers), Gregory Polanco (Pirates), Matt Davidson (Diamondbacks), and any number of Cardinals arms bandied about in the coming months.
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2014 Free Agents On The DL

By Tim Dierkes | May 6, 2013 at 8:29am CDT

Catcher Brian McCann will join the Braves tonight in Cincinnati to make his season debut against the Reds.  The 29-year-old missed the first month and change of the 2013 season following August shoulder surgery last year.  It's a big year for McCann, who will be eligible for free agency after the season.  Six other impending free agents project to make their season debuts this month: Corey Hart, Matt Garza, Curtis Granderson, Colby Lewis, Francisco Liriano, and Frank Francisco.  After beginning with all that positive news, here's a look at 2014 free agents currently on the shelf:

  • Roy Halladay is likely to hit the DL for a shoulder ailment that dates back to April 24th, which he says is different from last year's malady.  The Phillies' righty will fly to Los Angeles this week to be examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum.  Halladay, 36 this month, has an 8.65 ERA in 34 1/3 innings and seems likely to sign a one-year deal in the offseason.
  • The Blue Jays' Josh Johnson is on the DL with triceps soreness, and we haven't heard anything about his timetable.  JJ is headed further downward on our 2014 Free Agents Power Rankings, while Halladay is out of the top ten.
  • White Sox righty Gavin Floyd has an appointment this morning with orthopedic surgeon David Altcheck, notes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Tommy John surgery is a strong possibility for Floyd, who would then project to miss at least the first month of the 2014 season under his new contract.
  • Speaking of free agents signed coming off Tommy John surgery, the Cubs' Scott Baker resumed his throwing program a week ago.  Baker has had some setbacks after the April 2012 procedure.
  • Oakland's Coco Crisp had an amazing start to the season, but hasn't played 140 games in a season since '07.  He's on the DL with a strained hamstring.  That's the same injury affecting Baltimore's Brian Roberts.
  • Aside from Granderson, the Yankees have future free agents Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, and Joba Chamberlain on the DL.  Jeter, who fractured his ankle last year, will not reveal his target date for his season debut, but the team expects him out until after the All-Star break.  Jeter will face a $9.5MM player option after the season with a $3MM buyout.  Youkilis has a lumbar spine strain, while Chamberlain strained his right oblique.
  • The Mets' Johan Santana is out for the season with shoulder surgery, while the Cardinals can't count on Rafael Furcal (Tommy John) or Chris Carpenter (thoracic outlet syndrome) this year.  The Orioles' Tsuyoshi Wada signed a two-year, $8.14MM deal in December 2011, but had Tommy John surgery in May 2012 and has yet to make his big league debut. 
  • Dodgers starters Chris Capuano (strained left calf) and Ted Lilly (strained rib cage muscle) both reside on the DL, at a time when they actually had an opportunity to be in the rotation. 
  • The Indians' Brett Myers is weeks away from a return to action after suffering elbow inflammation.  Oakland's Chris Young is battling a strained left quad, while the Tigers' Octavio Dotel has elbow inflammation.
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Marlins Promote Marcell Ozuna

By Tim Dierkes | April 30, 2013 at 3:30pm CDT

The Marlins have promoted 22-year-old right fielder Marcell Ozuna, who will make his big league debut tonight against Jeremy Hefner and the Mets.  Ozuna, who was already on the team's 40-man roster, replaces slugger Giancarlo Stanton.  Stanton hit the DL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and will be out a few weeks in the best case scenario, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald among others.

Ozuna ranked 75th on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list, but failed to place on Keith Law's list for ESPN or the MLB.com list.  Prior to the season, BA wrote that Ozuna "oozes tools, particularly with his plus-plus raw power and a cannon arm."  He opened the season on the DL with a broken left wrist but showed no ill effects in ten Double-A games.  If Ozuna manages to stick in the Majors permanently, a tall order, he'll accumulate 153 days of big league service this year and qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2015 season.  He'd be under team control through 2019.

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Miami Marlins Top Prospect Promotions

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Hardest-Throwing 2014 Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | April 30, 2013 at 11:27am CDT

Last offseason, the hardest-throwing free agent based on 2012 velocity data from FanGraphs was reliever Brandon League.  With an average fastball velocity of 95.2 miles per hour, League signed what most considered an above-market three-year, $22.5MM deal with the Dodgers that also has a vesting option for 2016 based on games finished.  League was followed by free agent relievers Matt Lindstrom (94.8), Jonathan Broxton (94.7), and Mark Lowe (93.9).  As you might expect, flame-throwing free agent starters were harder to come by.  Edwin Jackson (93.5), Francisco Liriano (93.0), and Jeremy Guthrie (92.8) led that group.  Which 2014 free agents can boast of the best velocity so far this season?

Relievers

  1. Joel Hanrahan – 96.9
  2. Fernando Rodney – 95.6
  3. Matt Lindstrom – 94.5 (club option)
  4. Jesse Crain – 94.3
  5. Joba Chamberlain – 94.0
  6. Matt Thornton – 93.8 (club option)
  7. Boone Logan – 93.3
  8. Matt Albers – 93.1
  9. Grant Balfour – 93.0
  10. Jose Valverde – 92.9

Starters

    1.  Josh Johnson – 92.6
    2.  A.J. Burnett – 92.4
    3.  Jason Hammel and Edinson Volquez – 92.3
    5.  Phil Hughes – 92.0
    6.  Ervin Santana – 91.7
    7.  Gavin Floyd – 91.5
    8.  Mike Pelfrey – 91.3
    9.  Scott Kazmir – 91.2
  10.  Ubaldo Jimenez – 91.2

Average velocity for all qualified starting pitchers this year is 90.4 miles per hour, exactly what you'll find from 2014 free agent Hiroki Kuroda.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rising Starting Pitchers

By Tim Dierkes | April 30, 2013 at 8:05am CDT

Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay were part of our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, but here's a look at starting pitchers who had good Aprils but didn't make the cut for that list.

  • Ervin Santana.  Santana, 30, is showing the best control of his career with the Royals so far.  He probably won't continue to strand 90% of his baserunners, but perhaps this will be his best season since his All-Star '08 campaign.
  • Hiroki Kuroda.  The 38-year-old elected to take a one-year, $15MM deal with the Yankees in lieu of multiyear offers.  After five starts, he's replicated last year's success but with a lower batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rate.  We don't know what Kuroda's next move will be, but he's shown a willingness to leave some money on the table for the right situation.
  • A.J. Burnett.  Burnett's Pirates success has continued, as he leads the NL in strikeout rate.  However, walks are up and groundballs down a bit.  The 36-year-old could retire after the season, but otherwise prefers staying in Pittsburgh.  
  • Jorge De La Rosa.  After having Tommy John surgery in June 2011 and making only three big league starts last year, De La Rosa exercised his $11MM player option.  His pre-surgery strikeout rate has yet to return, but he has managed a 2.86 ERA.
  • Paul Maholm.  With one ugly outing against the Tigers last time out, Maholm's ERA jumped from 1.03 to 3.30.  If strikeouts remain up he could still have his best season, as he's shown the ability to get groundballs and limit walks at various points.
  • Bartolo Colon.  Colon has walked one batter in 32 innings this year, the best rate in the American League.  The 39-year-old earned a 50-game suspension for testosterone last summer.
  • Jason Hammel.  Hammel's sub-4.00 ERA is nice, but last year's big strikeout and groundball rates have vanished.  If he maintains his current peripherals, Hammel projects as a 5.00 ERA guy, so something needs to change.
  • Ricky Nolasco.  It's a similar story for Nolasco, who at least for once has an ERA better than his peripherals would suggest.
  • Andy Pettitte.  The 40-year-old stumbled yesterday against the Astros, but he's doing a lot of things right and it should be another strong season if he stays healthy.  There's an assumption that Pettitte will either return to the Yankees or retire again.
  • Roberto Hernandez.  His 5.28 ERA isn't much to look at, but Hernandez's 3.41 SIERA is a better measure of his skills so far.  I don't think 24% of his flyballs will continue to leave the yard, and he's flashing a nice strikeout rate, so Hernandez is one to watch.
  • Phil Hughes.  Hughes' ERA still sits at 4.67, but he's made three consecutive quality starts and has the seventh-best K/BB ratio in the American League.  Home runs will remain a problem.  At just 27 in June, Hughes will be one of the younger free agents out there.  
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Free Agent Stock Watch

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Aaron Laffey Elects Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 2:56pm CDT

Southpaw Aaron Laffey has elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment from the Blue Jays, according to a team press release.  The 28-year-old has been designated for assignment by the Mets and Jays this month, appearing in five big league games.

Laffey, whose 487 career innings rank 37th among those born in Maryland, tossed 100 2/3 Major League innings for Toronto last year while making 16 starts.  He joins a free agent market for starting pitchers that also includes Dallas Braden, Dustin Moseley, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, and Carlos Zambrano.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Aaron Laffey

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Miguel Sano Joins Beverly Hills Sports Council

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 2:33pm CDT

Twins prospect Miguel Sano has new representation, MLBTR has learned.  The 19-year-old third baseman, currently playing at High-A, is now represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.  For all of MLBTR's agency information, please check out our database.

Sano is one of the best prospects in baseball, ranking 11th on Keith Law's top 100 list for ESPN, ninth on Baseball America's list, and 12th on MLB.com's list.  One of the subjects of the documentary "Pelotero," Sano "has some of the easiest power in the minors," according to Law.

Beverly Hills Sports Council can be followed on Twitter here, and Sano can be followed here.

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Minnesota Twins Miguel Sano

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AL East Notes: Sox, Jays, Rays, O’s, Yanks

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 1:30pm CDT

In a poll of over 13,000 MLBTR readers, 9.72% ranked the Rays' Andrew Friedman as the best GM in baseball (technically his title is executive vice president of baseball operations).  Friedman ranked behind only the Athletics' Billy Beane, who received 13.65% of the vote.  Other notes from all five AL East clubs:  

  • Aside from the obvious factor of money, a chance to win is what compelled free agents to sign with the Red Sox during the offseason, writes WEEI's Rob Bradford.  Left fielder/designated hitter Jonny Gomes relished the fact that the team's core players had something to prove, saying, "The opportunity to play in Boston with these guys having a chip on their shoulder was what I signed up for."  At 18-7, the Red Sox have the best record in baseball with about 85% of their season remaining.
  • The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are 9.5 games behind the Red Sox with a 9-17 record.  Dave Cameron of FanGraphs finds it unlikely the Jays will be one of the expected handful of clubs to play around .600 ball from here on out, which is what they'd reasonably need to do for a shot at a wild card.  Furthermore, Cameron notes, "The mid-season trade deadline gives teams with slow starts less time to fully realize their natural regression, since they have to make a buy-or-sell decision when April represents 25-30% of their season, not 16% as it will at season’s end."
  • "I'm not sure if the Rays feel like he's polished enough to join the club just yet," writes MLB.com's Bill Chastain in reference to top prospect Wil Myers, while noting the right fielder's solid .309/.402/.457 line in 97 Triple-A plate appearances to date.
  • Veteran righty Freddy Garcia has been named the International League pitcher of the week, notes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.  Having made five starts, Garcia now has the ability to opt out of his minor league contract with the Orioles.  Rather than Garcia, 25-year-old Zach Britton is getting tonight's start in Seattle.
  • "Plans are in the works" for Hideki Matsui to sign a one-day contract to ceremoniously retire a Yankee, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.  Matsui spent his first seven MLB seasons with the Yankees, compiling a .292/.370/.482 batting line with 140 home runs.
  • 26-year-old Yankees righty Phil Hughes posted his third consecutive quality start yesterday against the Blue Jays.  Hughes, who turns 27 in June, projects to be the youngest established free agent starter after this season.  One alternative for teams that prefer young starting pitchers is South Korea's Suk-min Yoon, a Scott Boras client who was born a month after Hughes and will be eligible for free agency after the season.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Hideki Matsui

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rising Position Players

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 11:30am CDT

Our 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings only go to ten, so many quality players miss the cut.  Here are some position players in contract years who are on the rise as the season's first month draws to a close:

  • John Buck, C.  The Mets' backstop has eight home runs on the season, but a .279 OBP as well.  If his power has returned, perhaps he can ultimately compile a line similar to his .281/.314/.489 performance in 2010, which led to the three-year, $18MM contract with the Marlins.
  • A.J. Pierzynski, C.  Pierzynski is slugging .474 on the young season, a potential hint that last year's power surge wasn't a fluke.  Or at least that he's taking better advantage of his home parks.
  • Mike Napoli, 1B.  Now a full-time first baseman, Napoli's 108 plate appearances are more than a quarter of what he averaged the past two seasons.  If avoiding catching allows Napoli to reach 600 plate appearances (and 100 RBI) for the first time, perhaps he can reinvent himself as an everyday player, silence concerns about his hip, and snag his first multiyear deal.
  • Mark Reynolds, 1B.  Will Reynolds return to 35 home run heights this year with the Indians?  The former strikeout king has quietly pushed his K rate down under 25%, which would be a career first if it holds up.
  • Omar Infante, 2B.  Infante's bat has come alive for perhaps the first time since he joined the Tigers.
  • Michael Young, 3B.  Young has never walked in 8% of his plate appearances in a season, but so far this year he's at 10.2%.  Another season above .300 wouldn't hurt, either.
  • Nate McLouth, LF.  100+ runs seem possible for the Orioles' leadoff hitter, especially if his career-best 15.7% walk and 9% strikeout rates hold up to some degree.  McLouth currently leads the American League with a .455 OBP.
  • Nelson Cruz, RF.  If Cruz reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2009, he'll be popular in a free agent class light on proven sluggers.
  • Travis Hafner, DH.  A month into the season, Pronk has a line reminiscent of his 2004-06 heyday with the Tribe.  As always, it will be a question of health.
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Free Agent Stock Watch

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The Worst Extensions From Two Offseasons Ago

By Tim Dierkes | April 29, 2013 at 9:54am CDT

More than $1.1 billion across 117 contract years was committed to 32 players with less than six years of Major League service time during the 2010-11 offseason extension period, spanning October 2010 through April 2011.  Ryan Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki each signed extensions worth more than $100MM.  Two years removed from this extension period, which contracts now appear the most regrettable?

  • Dan Uggla has provided some value over the past two seasons, hitting 36 home runs in 2011 and drawing a good amount of walks last year.  Still, at .223/.326/.416 since the contract was signed, the Braves' second baseman has fallen short of the level of production that compelled the team to commit five years and $62MM.
  • Chad Billingsley's three-year, $35MM extension didn't look bad when it was signed in March 2011, but it covers 2012-14 and Tommy John surgery will take a big bite out of the righty's innings for the Dodgers.
  • The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.83 against an ERA of 4.47, so he is probably overvalued by a FIP-based method.  Nolasco is finishing out a three-year, $26.5MM extension, and the Marlins are expected to have to eat money or take back salary in order to move him.
  • Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol signed a three-year, $20MM extension.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry guaranteed Marmol's final two arbitration years and also bought a year of free agency for $9.8MM.  Perhaps Marmol was an unhittable strikeout machine in 2010, but he'd also shown a penchant for walking six or seven batters per nine innings.  Once Marmol became just a bit more hittable, the wheels fell off.  
  • With the player coming off a .254/.324/.350 season, was it really necessary to buy out one of Jason Bartlett's free agent years?  Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer did so at a cost of $5.5MM for 2012, only to release the shortstop in August of that year.
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