Draft Notes: Mock, Expert Draft, Mets, Phillies
It's draft week! On Thursday, the first 73 players will be chosen in MLB's first-year player draft. Draft order can be found here. The latest info:
- Need a refresher on MLB draft basics? Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca has you covered.
- How about a fresh mock draft from ESPN's Keith Law? Law is hearing high school righty Phil Bickford at #8 to the Royals, though he doesn't seem a fan of the idea. Law's mock draft requires a subscription, but is chock full of info and is well worth it.
- Baseball America editors John Manuel, Jim Callis, Conor Glassey, and Nathan Rode participated in an expert draft, taking turns making picks for teams.
- The Mets are targeting a college hitter in the draft, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. He suggests D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Austin Wilson, and Aaron Judge as possibilities. The Mets draft 11th, and Law went with high school first baseman Dominic Smith.
- The Phillies pick 16th, their earliest since Gavin Floyd was chosen fourth overall in '01. Assistant general manager of amateur scouting Marti Wolever told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, "One guy in particular I saw last year and I thought he was one of the best position players I saw last year. I think maybe there is a chance we can snag him this year. I hope so. I have my fingers crossed."
Weak-Hitting Positions For AL Contenders
Last week we looked at some areas of need for NL contenders. Using weighted on-base average, let's identify the weakest offensive production by position in the AL today. Since they're all within 6.5 games of the division lead, we're going to loosely call all AL Central clubs contenders.
- Catcher: White Sox (.275), Orioles (.277), Tigers (.278). The Orioles might prefer Matt Wieters get on base at better than a .297 clip, but most likely they're content with his production. The team's catcher production has been dragged down by backups Chris Snyder and Taylor Teagarden, who have soaked up about 14% of the ABs and have offered nothing. The Tigers have used Alex Avila and Brayan Pena, the latter of whom has actually been decent. It's looking like more of a timeshare at present. It doesn't seem like acquiring someone like John Buck or Nick Hundley would help the situation. Tyler Flowers hasn't done much as A.J. Pierzynski's replacement in Chicago, but giving Josh Phegley a look makes more sense than an acquisition.
- First base: White Sox (.284), Royals (.290), Twins (.305). The Royals have been suffering through another subpar season from Eric Hosmer. The White Sox are hoping for Paul Konerko to pull out of it, while the Twins have to hope Justin Morneau rediscovers his power stroke. Corey Hart and Carlos Pena could be available this summer, as first basemen go.
- Second base: White Sox (.235), Orioles (.237), Royals (.246). Jeff Keppinger has done much, but the White Sox reinstated Gordon Beckham from the DL today. The Orioles have used Ryan Flaherty, Alexi Casilla, Yamaico Navarro, and a few games of Brian Roberts before he suffered a hamstring injury. They might as well wait to see if Roberts really does return in mid-June, and then see if he can still hit. The Royals have mainly gone with Chris Getz and Elliot Johnson. Perhaps when Chase Utley returns from his oblique strain in mid-June, the Phillies' chances in 2013 will have tipped the scale one way or the other. The second base trade market offers little otherwise; perhaps Rickie Weeks or Darwin Barney.
- Shortstop: Yankees (.256), Royals (.263). Derek Jeter is recovering from an ankle injury, and it's unknown when he'll make his season debut. The Royals seem locked in with Alcides Escobar. The trade market appears barren anyway, unless perhaps the White Sox make Alexei Ramirez available.
- Third base: White Sox (.265), Royals (.268), Angels (.282), Yankees (.284). Have you noticed the Royals get no offensive production out of their infield? Mike Moustakas is the culprit here. Conor Gillaspie has been OK at third for the White Sox, and should eat into Keppinger's playing time. Alberto Callaspo and Luis Jimenez haven't given the Angels much production. The Yankees have Kevin Youkilis back, plus the possibility of Alex Rodriguez down the road. Aramis Ramirez, Chase Headley, Mark DeRosa, and Juan Uribe could be available.
- Right field: Athletics (.252), Royals (.262), Yankees (.280), Angels (.282). The A's hope Josh Reddick, back from the DL on Friday, will start hitting. The Royals can't expect that from Jeff Francoeur. The Yankees have tried Ichiro Suzuki and Brennan Boesch, and now Lyle Overbay is getting a start in right field as the team waits for Curtis Granderson to return to their outfield. For the Angels, Josh Hamilton at least showed some power in May. Thinking about the trade market? Giancarlo Stanton, Andre Ethier, Nate Schierholtz, Alex Rios, and Mike Morse are the commonly speculated-upon names.
- Center field: Twins (.257), White Sox (.292), Tigers (.303). Rookie Aaron Hicks had six home runs for the Twins in May, so maybe things will continue getting better. The White Sox have been using Alejandro De Aza and Dewayne Wise, and perhaps should just use less of Wise. The Tigers await the return of Austin Jackson.
- Left field: White Sox (.293). Dayan Viciedo hit 25 home runs last year, but has just four so far this year. The team has also been using De Aza in left. Josh Willingham, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, and Melky Cabrera could be on the market, in a general sense.
- Designated hitter: Tigers (.263), White Sox (.284), Orioles (.308). Big commitments to Victor Martinez in Detroit and Adam Dunn and Konerko in Chicago hamstring this clubs at DH. The Orioles may want to see what Nolan Reimold can do when he returns later this month, but they should be flexible toward upgrades involving many of the aforementioned available hitters. As far as pure designated hitters, Kendrys Morales and Adam Lind might be out there.
Brewers Acquire Juan Francisco; Release Alex Gonzalez
The Brewers acquired third baseman Juan Francisco from the Braves for minor league lefty reliever Tom Keeling, announced the teams. Additionally, the Brewers announced they've asked for waivers for the unconditional release of infielder Alex Gonzalez, while recalling second baseman Scooter Gennett and optioning Mike Fiers.
The Braves designated Francisco for assignment last Thursday to open a roster spot for Alex Wood. Francisco, 25, hit .237/.281/.420 in 320 plate appearances spanning 2012-13 for Atlanta. They had acquired him in an April 2012 trade with the Reds for reliever J.J. Hoover. Signed out of the Dominican Republic by Cincinnati in 2004, Francisco hit the prospect radar a few years later. Baseball America praised his arm and big raw power, questioning his aggressive approach at the plate. Francisco has played only third base in the Majors, and has played a handful of minor league games at the outfield corners and at first. In the short-term, though, GM Doug Melvin indicated on WSSP SportsRadio 1250 that Francisco will play first for the Brewers. Looking ahead, Francisco could be a viable replacement at the hot corner if the Brewers trade Aramis Ramirez this summer.
Keeling, 25, was drafted out of Oklahoma State by the Brewers in the 18th round in 2010. In 17 relief frames at Double-A this year, he has a 3.18 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 5.3 BB/9, with one home run allowed. According to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, "Keeling is a future bullpen piece who could get to Atlanta in 2014. He's hit 93 on the gun and occasionally uses a sideam delivery." Baseball America's J.J. Cooper paints a less rosy picture, tweeting, "Keeling is a fringy potential left-handed reliever with a below average fastball, OK slider."
Gonzalez, 36, signed a Major League deal worth $1.45MM in February. His release came after a .177/.203/.230 line in 118 plate appearances. A shortstop by trade, Gonzalez spent more time this year at the infield corners due to injuries to Corey Hart and Ramirez. Gonzalez had ACL surgery on his knee a year ago and battled a hamstring injury about a month ago. He lost playing time to Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit six home runs in April. The Brewers will be on the hook for Gonzalez's salary this year, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum should he sign elsewhere.
Gennett, 23, was added to the Brewers' 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The 5'9" second baseman was ranked eighth among Brewers prospects by Baseball America prior to the season. He's a free-swinging line drive hitter with some surprising doubles power, wrote BA. They added that he has some rough edges to smooth out defensively, with an average arm and range. Gennett was hitting .297/.342/.376 in 221 plate appearances at Triple-A, and MLB.com's Adam McCalvy suggests he will push Rickie Weeks for the team's starting job at second base. At the least, some kind of platoon situation is possible, since Gennett bats left-handed and Weeks right-handed.
Twins Designate Tyler Robertson For Assignment
The Twins announced today they've designated lefty Tyler Robertson for assignment, while selecting the contract of outfielder Clete Thomas. Thomas gives the Twins another center field option while Wilkin Ramirez recovers from a concussion, notes Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
Robertson, 25, made 40 appearances out of the Twins' bullpen last year as a rookie. This year he made a couple of April appearances before being optioned to Triple-A, where he compiled a 3.05 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 7.0 BB/9 with no home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings. It's the worst walk rate Robertson has posted at any level.
The Twins drafted Robertson out of high school in the third round in '06, a round notable for other big leaguers such as Joe Smith, Brennan Boesch, Jason Donald, and Zach McAllister. Prior to the '07 season, Baseball America wrote that Robertson's "stuff is already solid average, with a 90-91 mph fastball that touches 94 and good curveball with depth." Despite inconsistent velocity in the years that followed, the 6'5" lefty rose up the ranks of Twins prospects and was praised for his makeup before moving to relief in 2011. He currently works at 85-88 miles per hour, according to BrooksBaseball.net. Robertson's father, Jay, is employed as a scout for the Nationals.
Trade Candidate: Yovani Gallardo
The Brewers have a 21-34 record, and they play in a division with three teams playing .614 ball or better. Milwaukee is highly unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Their farm system is in the bottom third to put it kindly and the team lacks a first-round pick this Thursday, so it would seem they have a great opportunity to add prospects this summer. The problem: the team is lacking for strong trade candidates. Rickie Weeks has been terrible. Kyle Lohse has been OK, though teams don't typically trade players a few months into a three-year contract. Corey Hart is a free agent after the season, but he still hasn't made his season debut. Aramis Ramirez is a quality bat, though he's essentially owed $20MM next year. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez aren't going anywhere. But what about Yovani Gallardo?
When the Brewers signed Gallardo to a five-year, $30.1MM deal in April 2010, it was a commitment to build their rotation around him. He was 24 years old with minimal mileage on his arm, an average fastball velocity topping 92 miles per hour, and a strikeout rate of nearly ten per nine innings. He was a reliable producer in the three seasons that followed, even if walks and home runs kept him a bit short of an ace.
2013 has been a rough year, however. Gallardo was arrested for DUI in April, with a blood-alcohol level of 0.22. Things haven't been great on the field, either. His strikeout rate of 7.45 per nine innings is a career low. His home run rate is also a career worst, and he's allowed a whopping ten hits per nine. Those last two factors are likely to be better moving forward, but it is troublesome to see his average fastball velocity down to 90.5 miles per hour.
The velocity might be partially an early-season thing – Gallardo averaged 91.93 miles per hour on Friday, according to BrooksBaseball.net, compared to 92.89 one year prior. Despite Gallardo's 5.05 ERA, his skills suggest a 4.10 ERA moving forward. Still, this is a player who has never posted an ERA above 3.84 in his big league career. His lower walk rate in 2011 seems like a fluke, it's hard to say whether the strikeout rate will fully return, and he's always been homer-prone.
At the trade deadline, Gallardo will have about $2.58MM remaining in 2013 salary. He's owed a reasonable $11.25MM for 2014, and then his club can choose a $13MM club option or $600K buyout for '15. He can block deals to ten teams. On May 18th Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said the Brewers were "really reluctant to trade Gallardo," but Rosenthal seems to have softened his stance on Saturday in calling the pitcher an "intriguing name." I imagine a rocky start to the season won't be enough to torpedo Gallardo's trade value.
The case against moving Gallardo: the Brewers have Braun, Gomez, and Jean Segura for about $17.5MM total next year, far below their value. Even if we disregard everyone else on the roster, that's a lot of star-level, affordable talent to waste amid a full-blown rebuild. I don't think the Brewers will punt on 2014, which means they need Gallardo or at least a suitable replacement.
That might be the key. Gallardo's $11.25MM salary next year is steep for a team with a payroll under $100MM, and the Brewers could look to acquire a big league-ready pitcher earning the league minimum, plus other pieces. It would be best to target a pitcher who hasn't had much big league success to date, but could learn on the job for the last few months of 2013 and take a step forward in '14. Some potential examples, in my opinion, could be Nate Karns of the Nationals, Jesse Biddle of the Phillies, Allen Webster of the Red Sox, Zach Lee of the Dodgers, and Kyle Gibson of the Twins. Perhaps some or even all of those specific names are off-limits, but it's the type of pitcher I'd expect Brewers GM Doug Melvin to pursue if he entertains offers on Gallardo in the coming months. Melvin could add further value by including one of his veteran relievers in a deal. A trade within the NL Central would be tough, but otherwise, nearly any other contender could show interest, as you can never have enough pitching and Gallardo is more than a rental.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Moves: Lambin, Andino, Putnam, Bowden
Today's minor moves…
- The Royals signed third baseman Chase Lambin to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports (Twitter link). Lambin, 33, had been playing for the independent Sugar Land Skeeters, the latest stop in a 12-year minor league career that has seen him play in the Mets', Marlins', Nationals' and Twins' farm systems, plus a year in Japan with the Chiba Lotte Marines. Lambin is still looking for his first cup of coffee in the majors after posting a .270/.343/.437 line over 4475 minor league PA.
- Mariners infielder Robert Andino has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (via Twitter). Andrino was designated for assignment (in rather complicated fashion) by the M's last week. The Orioles considered making an offer for Andino, Connolly reports, but the club decided against bringing back their former utilityman.
- The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Zach Putnam and added him to the 40-man roster, the team announced. Kyuji Fujikawa was moved to the 60-day DL and Alex Burnett was sent to Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves. Putnam has a 3.26 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 in 19 1/3 relief innings in Triple-A this year and a 4.82 ERA in 9 1/3 career Major League innings with the Indians and Rockies.
- Reliever Michael Bowden cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A by the Cubs, according to the Pacific Coast League transactions page. He accepted the assignment, notes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Having been outrighted before, Bowden had the right to elect free agency, but then his contract would have been terminated. The 26-year-old posted a 3.78 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 35.3% groundball rate with no home runs allowed in 16 2/3 relief innings for the Cubs before being designated for assignment on Tuesday of last week to open a roster spot for Matt Garza. The Red Sox drafted Bowden 47th overall in 2005 as part of the compensation for the loss of free agent Derek Lowe. He was chosen five picks after Clay Buchholz, who was part of the compensation for the team's loss of Pedro Martinez.
- Eight players currently reside in DFA limbo: Ben Francisco and David Huff of the Yankees, Francisco Martinez of the Mariners, Edinson Rincon of the Padres, Ramon Ortiz and Clint Robinson of the Blue Jays, Nick Green of the Marlins, and Mark Lowe of the Angels.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post
Carl Pavano Out For The Season
Carl Pavano will not be physically able to play this season after January's snow shoveling accident required the removal of his spleen, agent Dave Pepe tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. "His hope is that he can give it a try next year," Pepe texted to Heyman.
Pavano's accident was no laughing matter – one of his lungs collapsed and doctors removed 6.5 liters of blood from his chest cavity before his spleen could be removed. "I was hours away from going into cardiac arrest and probably wouldn't even be here," Pavano told Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in February.
Pavano, 37, has a 4.39 career ERA in 1788 2/3 innings for the Expos, Marlins, Yankees, Indians, and Twins spanning 14 seasons. His 108 career wins rank fifth among those born in Connecticut, with Charles Nagy the modern leader at 129.
Braves Designate Juan Francisco For Assignment
The Braves announced they have designated third baseman Juan Francisco to open a roster spot for southpaw Alex Wood, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Francisco began the season in a third base platoon with Chris Johnson, and even started three of the last five games at the hot corner.
Francisco, 25, hit .237/.281/.420 in 320 plate appearances spanning 2012-13 for the Braves. They had acquired him in an April 2012 trade with the Reds, for reliever J.J. Hoover. Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Reds in 2004, Francisco hit the prospect radar a few years later. Baseball America praised his arm and big raw power, questioning his aggressive approach at the plate. The Braves are talking multiple clubs about potential Francisco trades, notes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, which was later confirmed by manager Fredi Gonzalez.
Wood, 22, was the Braves' second round pick last year. He'll be the fifth player from the 2012 draft to reach the Majors, along with pitchers Michael Wacha of the Cardinals (who debuts tonight), Kevin Gausman of the Orioles, Paco Rodriguez of the Dodgers, and Michael Roth of the Angels. Wood, ranked seventh among Braves prospects by Baseball America prior to the season, made ten strong starts at Double-A but will work out of the big club's bullpen on what Danny Knobler of CBS Sports calls the "Chris Sale plan." If Wood succeeds in the relief role, it may lessen the Braves' need for outside relief help in the wake of the loss of lefty relievers Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters to Tommy John surgery. Before the season, BA wrote of Wood, "With a better breaking ball, he could become a solid No. 3 starter."
AL Notes: Royals, Hideki Matsui, Trout
The big news out of the American League today comes from the Royals, who announced Hall of Famer George Brett will take over as interim hitting coach in place of Jack Maloof, while Pedro Grifol will take the major league special assignment coach role from Andre David. Brett has worked with the club since retiring in '93, but this marks his first in-season coaching job. He'll have his work cut out for him, as the Royals rank 12th in the AL with 3.98 runs scored per game, tenth with a .314 on-base percentage, and 14th with a .375 slugging percentage. The team's entire infield has failed to hit, right fielder Jeff Francoeur has been terrible as well, and even Billy Butler is slugging just .404. Losers of their last eight, the Royals still have a 6.3% shot at the playoffs, according to Clay Davenport's calculations.
Elsewhere around the American League…
- Hideki Matsui will sign a one-day minor league contract with the Yankees on July 28th to announce his official retirement that day as a Yankee, according to a team press release. After playing ten seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, Matsui compiled a .292/.370/.482 line with 140 home runs in seven seasons with the Yankees.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post revisits the Yankees' failed attempt to acquire Cliff Lee from the Mariners in 2010, noting that the players GM Brian Cashman refused to include aren't looking so great these days for the most part.
- As the Angels' best player, Mike Trout merits the respect of someone with four or five years of big league service, argues Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who feels Trout should stay in his preferred center field even when Peter Bourjos returns from the disabled list. Rosenthal notes that Trout "never once complained about playing left." I should point out that Trout's agent Craig Landis did bring up that "disappointment" in his March statement expressing displeasure with Trout's contract renewal.
Weak-Hitting Positions For NL Contenders
Even contenders have their flaws. Defining contenders as any team Clay Davenport gives at least a five percent chance of reaching the playoffs and using weighted on-base average, let's identify the weakest offensive production by position in the NL.
- Catcher: Reds (.263), Diamondbacks (.265). For the Reds, giving Devin Mesoraco the clear starting catcher role over Ryan Hanigan would boost their offensive production out of the position, but of course this position is about a lot more than hitting. The D'Backs are in a tough spot. They have a major commitment to Miguel Montero, and he's been brutal so far this season. They probably just have to hope he pulls out of it.
- First base: Rockies (.289), Phillies (.317). The Rockies have used Jordan Pacheco, Todd Helton, and a little bit of Michael Cuddyer at first base this year. In theory, the Rockies could go with Cuddyer at first and someone like Tyler Colvin in right field. The trade market is bleak at the position, as Justin Morneau and Carlos Pena would not be clear upgrades for Colorado. Corey Hart could be an interesting option, once he comes off the DL. The Phillies owe Ryan Howard roughly $98MM through 2016, so they'll just have to hope he can start drawing some more walks and begin to add positive value.
- Second base: Nationals (.227), Diamondbacks (.284). Second base has been a black hole for the Nats, with Danny Espinosa and Steve Lombardozzi struggling. Fans are calling for the return of 2011 first-round pick Anthony Rendon, but he probably needs to gain more experience at second base first. The D'Backs have used Martin Prado at second baes a decent amount in Aaron Hill's absence. Should Hill require surgery on his hand fracture, perhaps the D'Backs will look into an acquisition. Maybe third base prospect Matt Davidson, hitting .311/.342/.544 at Triple-A this month, could help the situation.
- Shortstop: Dodgers (.219), Pirates (.248). Hanley Ramirez should return from a hamstring injury next week, providing a lift to the Dodgers' abysmal offensive production at shortstop. The Pirates signed Clint Barmes in the 2011-12 offseason for his defense, but it barely makes up for the automatic outs at the plate. Jordy Mercer, John McDonald, and Chase D'Arnaud aren't much better, and highly regarded prospect Alen Hanson is still at High A. Good luck finding a decent-hitting shortstop on the trade market, though. The White Sox, should they drop out of contention, could offer up Alexei Ramirez at a premium.
- Third base: Pirates (.259), Rockies (.280), Dodgers (.288). It's been a power-only show for the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez at the hot corner, as he's striking out a ton and owns the fifth-worst qualified OBP in the NL (.257). Aramis Ramirez would be a fun pick-up, though intra-divisional trades can be tricky. Chase Headley would be a huge addition, but only if the Padres are willing to listen. The Rockies will give rookie Nolan Arenado some time to find his footing. Less Luis Cruz should be enough to give the Dodgers a lift.
- Left field: Diamondbacks (.300), Reds (.300), Giants (.302). The D'Backs have used six different left fielders, and figure to stick with Jason Kubel and Cody Ross. With Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey on the DL, the Reds have been employing Xavier Paul of late, and he's been solid overall. The Giants' combo of Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres was never meant to be offense-first, and Torres has heated up in May anyway. Should one of these teams turn to the trade market, Josh Willingham, Carlos Quentin, Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Melky Cabrera, and Alfonso Soriano are some candidates. Several of those players don't work for the Giants, however.
- Center field: Dodgers (.278), Braves (.278), Phillies (.288). Center field is not an offense-first position, but in general these teams just need to get more out of their incumbents. Matt Kemp might miss some time with a hamstring strain, which could allow for Joc Pederson to get a look with the Dodgers. It seems crazy for the Braves to push B.J. Upton into a full-blown platoon with Jordan Schafer months after committing $75.25MM over five years, but that could be an option at some point. The Phillies were looking mostly for defense from Ben Revere, but .263/.302/.294 is still tough to stomach. John Mayberry Jr. can pitch in a bit. As for the trade market, Peter Bourjos, and Franklin Gutierrez could become available when healthy. David DeJesus, Chris Coghlan, and Alejandro De Aza could also be options.
- Right field: Phillies (.294), Braves (.313). Delmon Young hasn't done much for the Phillies in right so far. The Braves' Jason Heyward has been terrible, and we'll see how long they can wait that slump out. Trade options could include Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Rios, Andre Ethier, Nate Schierholtz, Chris Denorfia, Morse, and Hart.