Hardest-Throwing 2014 Free Agents
Last offseason, the hardest-throwing free agent based on 2012 velocity data from FanGraphs was reliever Brandon League. With an average fastball velocity of 95.2 miles per hour, League signed what most considered an above-market three-year, $22.5MM deal with the Dodgers that also has a vesting option for 2016 based on games finished. League was followed by free agent relievers Matt Lindstrom (94.8), Jonathan Broxton (94.7), and Mark Lowe (93.9). As you might expect, flame-throwing free agent starters were harder to come by. Edwin Jackson (93.5), Francisco Liriano (93.0), and Jeremy Guthrie (92.8) led that group. Which 2014 free agents can boast of the best velocity so far this season?
Relievers
- Joel Hanrahan – 96.9
- Fernando Rodney – 95.6
- Matt Lindstrom – 94.5 (club option)
- Jesse Crain – 94.3
- Joba Chamberlain – 94.0
- Matt Thornton – 93.8 (club option)
- Boone Logan – 93.3
- Matt Albers – 93.1
- Grant Balfour – 93.0
- Jose Valverde – 92.9
Starters
1. Josh Johnson – 92.6
2. A.J. Burnett – 92.4
3. Jason Hammel and Edinson Volquez – 92.3
5. Phil Hughes – 92.0
6. Ervin Santana – 91.7
7. Gavin Floyd – 91.5
8. Mike Pelfrey – 91.3
9. Scott Kazmir – 91.2
10. Ubaldo Jimenez – 91.2
Average velocity for all qualified starting pitchers this year is 90.4 miles per hour, exactly what you'll find from 2014 free agent Hiroki Kuroda.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rising Starting Pitchers
Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay were part of our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, but here's a look at starting pitchers who had good Aprils but didn't make the cut for that list.
- Ervin Santana. Santana, 30, is showing the best control of his career with the Royals so far. He probably won't continue to strand 90% of his baserunners, but perhaps this will be his best season since his All-Star '08 campaign.
- Hiroki Kuroda. The 38-year-old elected to take a one-year, $15MM deal with the Yankees in lieu of multiyear offers. After five starts, he's replicated last year's success but with a lower batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rate. We don't know what Kuroda's next move will be, but he's shown a willingness to leave some money on the table for the right situation.
- A.J. Burnett. Burnett's Pirates success has continued, as he leads the NL in strikeout rate. However, walks are up and groundballs down a bit. The 36-year-old could retire after the season, but otherwise prefers staying in Pittsburgh.
- Jorge De La Rosa. After having Tommy John surgery in June 2011 and making only three big league starts last year, De La Rosa exercised his $11MM player option. His pre-surgery strikeout rate has yet to return, but he has managed a 2.86 ERA.
- Paul Maholm. With one ugly outing against the Tigers last time out, Maholm's ERA jumped from 1.03 to 3.30. If strikeouts remain up he could still have his best season, as he's shown the ability to get groundballs and limit walks at various points.
- Bartolo Colon. Colon has walked one batter in 32 innings this year, the best rate in the American League. The 39-year-old earned a 50-game suspension for testosterone last summer.
- Jason Hammel. Hammel's sub-4.00 ERA is nice, but last year's big strikeout and groundball rates have vanished. If he maintains his current peripherals, Hammel projects as a 5.00 ERA guy, so something needs to change.
- Ricky Nolasco. It's a similar story for Nolasco, who at least for once has an ERA better than his peripherals would suggest.
- Andy Pettitte. The 40-year-old stumbled yesterday against the Astros, but he's doing a lot of things right and it should be another strong season if he stays healthy. There's an assumption that Pettitte will either return to the Yankees or retire again.
- Roberto Hernandez. His 5.28 ERA isn't much to look at, but Hernandez's 3.41 SIERA is a better measure of his skills so far. I don't think 24% of his flyballs will continue to leave the yard, and he's flashing a nice strikeout rate, so Hernandez is one to watch.
- Phil Hughes. Hughes' ERA still sits at 4.67, but he's made three consecutive quality starts and has the seventh-best K/BB ratio in the American League. Home runs will remain a problem. At just 27 in June, Hughes will be one of the younger free agents out there.
Aaron Laffey Elects Free Agency
Southpaw Aaron Laffey has elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment from the Blue Jays, according to a team press release. The 28-year-old has been designated for assignment by the Mets and Jays this month, appearing in five big league games.
Laffey, whose 487 career innings rank 37th among those born in Maryland, tossed 100 2/3 Major League innings for Toronto last year while making 16 starts. He joins a free agent market for starting pitchers that also includes Dallas Braden, Dustin Moseley, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, and Carlos Zambrano.
Miguel Sano Joins Beverly Hills Sports Council
Twins prospect Miguel Sano has new representation, MLBTR has learned. The 19-year-old third baseman, currently playing at High-A, is now represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council. For all of MLBTR's agency information, please check out our database.
Sano is one of the best prospects in baseball, ranking 11th on Keith Law's top 100 list for ESPN, ninth on Baseball America's list, and 12th on MLB.com's list. One of the subjects of the documentary "Pelotero," Sano "has some of the easiest power in the minors," according to Law.
Beverly Hills Sports Council can be followed on Twitter here, and Sano can be followed here.
AL East Notes: Sox, Jays, Rays, O’s, Yanks
In a poll of over 13,000 MLBTR readers, 9.72% ranked the Rays' Andrew Friedman as the best GM in baseball (technically his title is executive vice president of baseball operations). Friedman ranked behind only the Athletics' Billy Beane, who received 13.65% of the vote. Other notes from all five AL East clubs:
- Aside from the obvious factor of money, a chance to win is what compelled free agents to sign with the Red Sox during the offseason, writes WEEI's Rob Bradford. Left fielder/designated hitter Jonny Gomes relished the fact that the team's core players had something to prove, saying, "The opportunity to play in Boston with these guys having a chip on their shoulder was what I signed up for." At 18-7, the Red Sox have the best record in baseball with about 85% of their season remaining.
- The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are 9.5 games behind the Red Sox with a 9-17 record. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs finds it unlikely the Jays will be one of the expected handful of clubs to play around .600 ball from here on out, which is what they'd reasonably need to do for a shot at a wild card. Furthermore, Cameron notes, "The mid-season trade deadline gives teams with slow starts less time to fully realize their natural regression, since they have to make a buy-or-sell decision when April represents 25-30% of their season, not 16% as it will at season’s end."
- "I'm not sure if the Rays feel like he's polished enough to join the club just yet," writes MLB.com's Bill Chastain in reference to top prospect Wil Myers, while noting the right fielder's solid .309/.402/.457 line in 97 Triple-A plate appearances to date.
- Veteran righty Freddy Garcia has been named the International League pitcher of the week, notes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Having made five starts, Garcia now has the ability to opt out of his minor league contract with the Orioles. Rather than Garcia, 25-year-old Zach Britton is getting tonight's start in Seattle.
- "Plans are in the works" for Hideki Matsui to sign a one-day contract to ceremoniously retire a Yankee, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. Matsui spent his first seven MLB seasons with the Yankees, compiling a .292/.370/.482 batting line with 140 home runs.
- 26-year-old Yankees righty Phil Hughes posted his third consecutive quality start yesterday against the Blue Jays. Hughes, who turns 27 in June, projects to be the youngest established free agent starter after this season. One alternative for teams that prefer young starting pitchers is South Korea's Suk-min Yoon, a Scott Boras client who was born a month after Hughes and will be eligible for free agency after the season.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rising Position Players
Our 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings only go to ten, so many quality players miss the cut. Here are some position players in contract years who are on the rise as the season's first month draws to a close:
- John Buck, C. The Mets' backstop has eight home runs on the season, but a .279 OBP as well. If his power has returned, perhaps he can ultimately compile a line similar to his .281/.314/.489 performance in 2010, which led to the three-year, $18MM contract with the Marlins.
- A.J. Pierzynski, C. Pierzynski is slugging .474 on the young season, a potential hint that last year's power surge wasn't a fluke. Or at least that he's taking better advantage of his home parks.
- Mike Napoli, 1B. Now a full-time first baseman, Napoli's 108 plate appearances are more than a quarter of what he averaged the past two seasons. If avoiding catching allows Napoli to reach 600 plate appearances (and 100 RBI) for the first time, perhaps he can reinvent himself as an everyday player, silence concerns about his hip, and snag his first multiyear deal.
- Mark Reynolds, 1B. Will Reynolds return to 35 home run heights this year with the Indians? The former strikeout king has quietly pushed his K rate down under 25%, which would be a career first if it holds up.
- Omar Infante, 2B. Infante's bat has come alive for perhaps the first time since he joined the Tigers.
- Michael Young, 3B. Young has never walked in 8% of his plate appearances in a season, but so far this year he's at 10.2%. Another season above .300 wouldn't hurt, either.
- Nate McLouth, LF. 100+ runs seem possible for the Orioles' leadoff hitter, especially if his career-best 15.7% walk and 9% strikeout rates hold up to some degree. McLouth currently leads the American League with a .455 OBP.
- Nelson Cruz, RF. If Cruz reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2009, he'll be popular in a free agent class light on proven sluggers.
- Travis Hafner, DH. A month into the season, Pronk has a line reminiscent of his 2004-06 heyday with the Tribe. As always, it will be a question of health.
The Worst Extensions From Two Offseasons Ago
More than $1.1 billion across 117 contract years was committed to 32 players with less than six years of Major League service time during the 2010-11 offseason extension period, spanning October 2010 through April 2011. Ryan Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki each signed extensions worth more than $100MM. Two years removed from this extension period, which contracts now appear the most regrettable?
- Dan Uggla has provided some value over the past two seasons, hitting 36 home runs in 2011 and drawing a good amount of walks last year. Still, at .223/.326/.416 since the contract was signed, the Braves' second baseman has fallen short of the level of production that compelled the team to commit five years and $62MM.
- Chad Billingsley's three-year, $35MM extension didn't look bad when it was signed in March 2011, but it covers 2012-14 and Tommy John surgery will take a big bite out of the righty's innings for the Dodgers.
- The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.83 against an ERA of 4.47, so he is probably overvalued by a FIP-based method. Nolasco is finishing out a three-year, $26.5MM extension, and the Marlins are expected to have to eat money or take back salary in order to move him.
- Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol signed a three-year, $20MM extension. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry guaranteed Marmol's final two arbitration years and also bought a year of free agency for $9.8MM. Perhaps Marmol was an unhittable strikeout machine in 2010, but he'd also shown a penchant for walking six or seven batters per nine innings. Once Marmol became just a bit more hittable, the wheels fell off.
- With the player coming off a .254/.324/.350 season, was it really necessary to buy out one of Jason Bartlett's free agent years? Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer did so at a cost of $5.5MM for 2012, only to release the shortstop in August of that year.
Who’s The Best GM In Baseball?
The job of a Major League general manager is an extremely demanding one. Player acquisitions are complicated, from trading with other teams to negotiating with agents. Beyond working with the rest of the baseball operations staff on transactions and contract issues, the GM must communicate with scouts, coaches, medical staff, and the media, and prepare for the draft. Our question today: who's the best? Please note that while some of these people do not technically have the title of GM, they seem to be the team's closest approximation.
Who's the best GM in baseball?
-
Billy Beane 14% (4,178)
-
Andrew Friedman 8% (2,485)
-
John Mozeliak 8% (2,369)
-
Brian Cashman 7% (1,922)
-
Brian Sabean 6% (1,868)
-
Dave Dombrowski 5% (1,567)
-
Frank Wren 5% (1,524)
-
Ben Cherington 5% (1,406)
-
Alex Anthopoulos 5% (1,366)
-
Jon Daniels 5% (1,338)
-
Walt Jocketty 4% (1,266)
-
Dan Duquette 3% (950)
-
Mike Rizzo 3% (943)
-
Jed Hoyer 3% (778)
-
Sandy Alderson 2% (717)
-
Doug Melvin 2% (560)
-
Terry Ryan 2% (480)
-
Ned Colletti 2% (479)
-
Neal Huntington 2% (453)
-
Ruben Amaro Jr. 1% (435)
-
Jack Zduriencik 1% (416)
-
Jerry Dipoto 1% (378)
-
Jeff Luhnow 1% (327)
-
Kevin Towers 1% (321)
-
Dayton Moore 1% (262)
-
Rick Hahn 1% (215)
-
Chris Antonetti 1% (168)
-
Josh Byrnes 0% (94)
-
Larry Beinfest 0% (81)
-
Bill Geivett 0% (47)
Total votes: 29,393
Nationals Exercise Mike Rizzo’s 2014 Option
The Nationals have exercised their 2014 contract option for GM Mike Rizzo, tweets MLB.com's Bill Ladson, as they continue to work on an extension beyond next season. Rizzo's current contract also has a club option for 2015.
Rizzo was named the Nationals' interim GM in March 2009, and was hired full-time in August of that year. In 2012, Rizzo's fourth season at the helm, the team won an MLB-best 98 games.
For the Nats, Rizzo has drafted Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Drew Storen, and Anthony Rendon among others. Rizzo's major trades include Mike Morse, Sean Burnett, Wilson Ramos, Gio Gonzalez, and Denard Span. He's signed free agents such as Jayson Werth, Rafael Soriano, Adam LaRoche, Jason Marquis, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson and done significant extensions with Ryan Zimmerman and Gonzalez.
Stark On Shields, Stanton, Masterson, Fowler
Jayson Stark leads his latest column for ESPN with a discussion of the ten managers currently in the last year of their contracts, noting that teams these days are more willing to allow skippers' contracts to expire. Also from Stark's column:
- One American League executive would rather give a $100MM contract to James Shields than Zack Greinke, because Greinke sometimes "seems a little disinterested" while Shields is regarded as more of a competitor. Shields is on track for free agency after the 2014 season, assuming the Royals exercise a club option for about $13.5MM after this season.
- An NL exec wouldn't give up Travis D'Arnaud or Zack Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton.
- A Justin Masterson–Dexter Fowler trade between the Indians and Rockies "was talked about extensively early in the offseason," according to Stark. Masterson is under the Indians' control through 2014, while the Rockies control Fowler through 2015.
- In regard to shortstop Jean Segura, Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented, "I see people talk about the [Jurickson] Profars and even the Dee Gordons. But they never talk about him. He's an exciting player." Melvin acquired Segura, John Hellweg, and Ariel Pena from the Angels for Greinke last summer.
