2014 Free Agent Power Rankings
Roughly nine percent of the regular season is in the books, and it's time for a new installment in our 2014 Free Agents Power Rankings series. Since our last update, top potential free agent starter Adam Wainwright was locked up by the Cardinals through 2018.
The full list of players who will be eligible for free agency can be found here.
1. Robinson Cano. Interesting news earlier this month, as Cano fired agent Scott Boras in favor of CAA and Jay-Z's Roc Nation Sports. Seasoned baseball agent Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA will take lead on contract negotiations, though the agent told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports Jay-Z will be "intimately involved." There's a general feeling that Cano's agency switch makes an extension more likely, but we haven't heard of any progress on that front lately. In an MLBTR poll a week ago of over 13,000 readers, 78% felt Cano would be extended by the Yankees.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is not off to a blazing start — he's got six extra-base hits in 67 plate appearances, but he's drawing fewer walks than ever. I'm willing to overlook that for now and focus on the fact that the 29-year-old appears fully healthy.
3. Shin-Soo Choo. The 30-year-old doesn't appear suited for center field, but he's off to a great start offensively. With good health, he could hit 15+ home runs and score 100 with his usual solid OBP, which should play quite well in free agency.
4. Josh Johnson. JJ looked good in his last start against the White Sox, a nice bounceback from a career-worst 1 1/3 inning stint against Detroit. In an MLBTR poll Monday of over 15,000 readers, Johnson was voted the best free agent starter of the upcoming class. However, he won that vote with about 19.6% of the total, and plenty of readers favored Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Matt Garza, or Paul Maholm.
5. Hunter Pence. He's shown some pop in the early going, but Pence's walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up. Pence's ranking here is tenuous.
6. Chase Utley. A new entrant to this list, Utley is finally healthy and is hitting for big power. His .566 slugging percentage ranks fourth among qualified second basemen. A healthy campaign should lead to a multiyear deal, though at age 35 in December it may be difficult to find a third guaranteed year.
7. Matt Garza. That Garza ranks as the second best free agent starter speaks to the huge question marks in this free agent class, since he hasn't pitched in the Majors since July 21st of last year due to injuries. Garza is slated for a minor league rehab appearance tomorrow, weather permitting, and Cubs manager Dale Sveum told reporters including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that the righty will make four rehab starts before the team decides whether to activate him.
8. Brian McCann. As he rehabbed from shoulder surgery, McCann encountered some tenderness in his right wrist. It's said to be a minor issue, and he should begin catching in extended spring training soon.
9. Tim Lincecum. There's been nothing positive about Lincecum's first three starts, as he leads MLB in walks allowed and has surrendered three home runs in 16 innings. It's much too early to declare him finished as a useful starting pitcher, but he is in danger of dropping out of the top ten free agents.
10. Roy Halladay. It hasn't been much better for Doc, who looked quite bad in his first two starts of the season. He did shut down the Giancarlo Stanton-less Marlins on Sunday, a team currently hitting .209/.272/.271. Tomorrow's start against the Cardinals will be a better test.
Four starting pitchers are nipping at the heels of Lincecum and Halladay: Paul Maholm, A.J. Burnett, Tim Hudson, and Hiroki Kuroda. Curtis Granderson does not yet have a timetable to resume swinging a bat after fracturing his right forearm, but perhaps he will return in May and make a run at the list.
The Agency Choice: Big Or Small?
Do you prefer the personal service of your local mom-and-pop hardware store, or do you lean toward the advantages offered by a big box corporate establishment? It's the type of choice we're faced with as consumers every day. Similarly, baseball players with Major League aspirations must choose their representation, and a major factor is whether they prefer a big or small agency.
Reds right fielder Jay Bruce, who left the Boras Corporation for Sosnick Cobbe Sports when he was still in high school, told me in February, "If you take the baseball part out of it and think about small companies vs. big corporations, there's more personal service at a small company." Rays righty Jake Odorizzi seems to agree, saying, "I think it's more personable, really, talking to the same guy about everything. You don't feel like a dollar amount when you're in a smaller firm. [At a big agency] I'm sure some of them get lost in translation a little bit."
Surely one gets better service at the local hardware store than at a chain, but is that really true of baseball agencies? Baseball's most powerful and well-known agent, Scott Boras, certainly doesn't think so. In a February conversation, he explained that having a 75-employee staff frees up more time for him to focus on what's important. "In my job, I have the ability to focus on certain parts of representing the player: talking with them, dealing with them at the Major League level, talking about their approach, taking care of their needs. All the administration, all the management of the company, all the things that have to do with the operation of the company are done by other staff members. Frankly by being a company of size, the top executives can focus on players while they can also afford to hire people to do a lot of the work that is needed to operate a company. When you have a small company and you have the jack of all trades doing all the things, buying the copy machines, renting the offices, paying the bills, doing all these administrative things, they lose focus that they have on the players."
B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management is one of three full-time employees at his agency, which represented Chipper Jones and currently has Brian McCann, Jonathan Broxton, Chris Sale, and top prospects like Zack Wheeler, Byron Buxton, and Mike Zunino. Despite running a small agency, Abbott doesn't feel bogged down by administrative tasks. "We have systems in place for the more administrative portions of our business and client representation. I would argue that these systems and how they are structured allow for a more substantial and meaningful representation of our clients. I would also tell you that I am completely informed and included in every decision for each of our clients, because I want to be. That does not distract me from the more critical parts of the representation process because we feel as if we maintain a manageable number of clients."
Abbott highlighted the importance of his relationships with his clients. He told me in an email, "The type of relationship I am talking about can ONLY come from spending time with a client and his family. You cannot make that up with more resources, contracts and clients."
The extra resources offered by large agencies matter to some players, however. Mets first baseman Ike Davis, an Octagon client, told me in March, "There's just more people reaching out trying to improve your brand, getting more opportunities and more business ventures. There's more connections and more hands that are working on stuff." Boras, who boasted of a $6 million computer system, a 20-man arbitration staff, a scouting system, a sports fitness institute, and psychologists on staff, said, "I think it's very difficult for a boutique agency to offer all the necessary resources an athlete needs. When you're talking about an agency that has less than ten employees, it would be very difficult for them to manage their Major Leaguers, manage their minor leaguers, and manage the people in the draft, mainly because if all the needs of all the players were to be taken care of – medical, psychological, growth, endorsement, contract, at all different levels."
Furthermore, Boras sees a conflict of interest in a small agency relying on a handful of players for its revenue. "When you have a small number of players you run into something that's very difficult. The teams know that one or two particular players are the revenue base, are the ability of existence of that company for the future, and thereby they can't afford to turn down contract proposals. They can't afford to turn down $60 or 70 million so that the player in six months can make $200 million."
The client's goals come first, countered Abbott, since the client ultimately calls the shots. "The bottom line with any agency, big or small, should always be that decisions should be driven by what the client is trying to achieve. Clients and their desires should always be at the forefront of that process, and those decisions are arrived at after considering all the information about a contract proposal and his/his family's future. I know we pride ourselves on giving complete information to each player and family so that they can make the best decision for themselves. That should be true of any agency, regardless of their size."
Both Abbott and Boras say they have intentionally limited the size of their agency. Abbott feels he offers the best of both worlds: "Complete full service and one stop shopping in an environment that thrives upon one on one contact, building relationships and providing extensive information to our clients and their families." Boras feels his agency could also be bigger, but he would rather be picky. "We represent players that have very high skill levels. We have our own scouting system and we're very selective." The numbers back that up, as the Boras Corporation ranks second in 2012 wins above replacement per Major League player.
The big versus small agency choice will always come down to personal preference. Big firms will tell prospective clients about their resources and experience, and small groups will highlight personal service. There seems to be plenty of room for both — by my count, 100 different agencies had at least one big leaguer contribute positive value in 2012.
Cubs Claim Ransom; Designate Takahashi, Lillibridge
The Cubs claimed infielder Cody Ransom off waivers from the Padres, GM Jed Hoyer told reporters including MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. The team also purchased the contract of Kevin Gregg. Sunday's waiver claim, Kameron Loe, is also joining the Cubs' bullpen, while reliever Hisanori Takahashi and infielder Brent Lillibridge were designated for assignment. Second baseman Darwin Barney has been reinstated from the DL, as expected.
Ransom had been designated for assignment by the Padres on Friday. The 37-year-old had the most exposure of his big league career last year, racking up a .220/.312/.411 line in 282 plate appearances for the Brewers and Diamondbacks. If Ransom somehow sticks on the Cubs' roster, he'll be arbitration eligible after the season.
Takahashi, 38, was scored upon in two of his three appearances for the Cubs this year. The lefty posted a 5.54 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, and 37.1% groundball rate in 50 1/3 innings for the Angels and Pirates in 2012. The Cubs' bullpen is already being retooled, with a 5.82 ERA in the early going.
Lillibridge, 29, had one hit in 24 plate appearances for the Cubs this year. He played second and third base. Lillibridge hit .195/.250/.274 in 209 plate appearances for the White Sox, Red Sox, and Indians last year. He was part of a "numbers crunch," Hoyer told reporters including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. With the recent additions of Ransom, Gregg, and Loe, the Cubs' 40-man roster remains full.
Blue Jays Outright Jeffress To Minors
Today's minor moves…
- The Blue Jays outrighted 25-year-old righty Jeremy Jeffress, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Jeffress had been designated for assignment on April 6th to open a 40-man roster spot for David Bush. The Jays had acquired him from the Royals for cash considerations in November. Jeffress, a former first-round pick of the Brewers, had joined Kansas City in the December 2010 Zack Greinke trade. Jeffress has a big fastball, though he's dealt with a pair of suspensions for marijuana. He posted a 4.97 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 0.62 HR/9 in 58 Triple-A innings last year.
Rays Acquire Jeff Beliveau
The Rays acquired lefty Jeff Beliveau from the Rangers for cash considerations, according to a team press release. Jeff Niemann was placed on the 60-day DL to create a 40-man roster spot for Beliveau, noted Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Beliveau had been designated for assignment by the Rangers on April 8th, upon their acquisition of catcher Robinson Chirinos from Tampa Bay. Beliveau is not the player to be named later that the Rangers owe the Rays for Chirinos, tweets Topkin.
Beliveau, 26, posted a 3.89 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 0.82 HR/9 in 44 relief innings for the Cubs' Triple-A affiliate last year, making his big league debut in July.
Bobby Abreu Aiming For 2014 Comeback
39-year-old on-base artist Bobby Abreu plans to "play winter ball for the Leones del Caracas starting in October as a prelude to a comeback attempt in 2014," writes ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. A few teams kicked the tires on Abreu during the offseason, but after coming up empty he plans to take this season off.
"Bobby still thinks he has something left to offer. He still thinks he can help somebody, and he has some personal milestones that would probably be nice to cross," agent Peter Greenberg told Crasnick. While Abreu's power seems all but gone, and he's more of a pinch-hitter or part-time designated hitter, it does appear he can still get on base at a .350 clip. Those 13 home runs needed to reach 300 will be hard to come by, however.
Marlins Notes: Stanton, Fernandez, Aardsma
Though the Marlins are baseball's worst team at 2-11, their rotation has hung in pretty well with a collective 3.52 ERA. Kevin Slowey, Ricky Nolasco, and rookie Jose Fernandez have led the way. Tonight, they have Alex Sanabia facing the Nationals at Marlins Park. The latest on Miami's team:
- Giancarlo Stanton probably has more trade value than the Rays' David Price currently, ESPN's Buster Olney writes based on conversations with about a half-dozen team officials. That seems a given, with Stanton under team control for an extra year. Olney's early "educated guess" at the front-runners for Stanton: the Rangers, Mariners, Tigers, and Cardinals. Stanton, 23, has missed several games with a bruised shoulder, which he will test today with a few swings according to Craig Davis of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. As of Sunday, the Marlins were not interested in trading Stanton, tweeted Peter Gammons of MLB Network. In a poll of over 13,000 MLBTR readers last Thursday, 40% felt Stanton would be traded during this season, while about 31% expected the Marlins to wait until the offseason.
- "There's more downside than upside" in the Marlins' decision to promote Fernandez to the big league club to start the season, writes Jim Callis of Baseball America (subscription required). Callis feels Fernandez is subject to increased injury risk, and finds the team's failure to wait 12 days before promoting him to be short-sighted. Fernandez only made one start prior to April 12th, at which point the Marlins could have purchased his contract and controlled him through 2019 instead of 2018. Even if you feel the Marlins will just trade Fernandez once he gets expensive, he would've had more trade value with an extra year of control.
- "The Marlins made a strong financial offer, and more important, they had a plan for me," reliever David Aardsma told Daniel Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal, adding, "They made that clear to me, that if I pitch well, I have an opportunity to claim a role." Barbarisi's article is a good read, as he followed Aardsma through the process of being released by the Yankees and landing with Miami. The Marlins' bullpen has been one of the league's worst, with five relievers sporting ERAs over 5.00.
Each Team’s Highest-Paid Player
When calculating the amount of the Qualifying Offer, MLB and the players' union find the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players. For each player on a 40-man roster or the 60-day DL on August 31st, they total his base salary, pro-rated signing bonus, pro-rated buyout on the first club or mutual option year, and earned bonuses at year's end. The calculations are more complicated in some cases, but just by following the basics of that method I thought it'd be interesting to list each team's highest-paid player in 2013.
- Angels: Josh Hamilton, $17MM.
- Astros: Bud Norris, $3MM.
- Athletics: Chris Young, $9MM.
- Blue Jays: Jose Bautista, $14.2MM.
- Braves: Dan Uggla, $13.2MM.
- Brewers: Rickie Weeks: $11MM.
- Cardinals: Matt Holliday: $17.1MM (does not account for deferred money).
- Cubs: Alfonso Soriano: $19MM.
- Diamondbacks: Miguel Montero, $10MM.
- Dodgers: Adrian Gonzalez, $21.9MM. Carl Crawford, $20.9MM. Matt Kemp, $20.25MM. The Dodgers are receiving $3.9MM this year from the Red Sox, so if you attribute some of that toward Gonzalez and Crawford, perhaps Kemp is their highest-paid player this year.
- Giants: Tim Lincecum, $22.125MM.
- Indians: Nick Swisher, $11MM.
- Mariners: Felix Hernandez, $19.9MM.
- Marlins: Ricky Nolasco, $11.5MM.
- Mets: Johan Santana: $26.4MM.
- Nationals: Jayson Werth, $16.6MM.
- Orioles: Nick Markakis, $15.7MM.
- Padres: Carlos Quentin, $10.5MM.
- Phillies: Cliff Lee, $27.5MM.
- Pirates: A.J. Burnett, $16.5MM. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are tied as the team's highest-paid player at $8MM, if you account for money received from their old teams.
- Rangers: Adrian Beltre, $16MM.
- Rays: David Price, $10.1MM.
- Red Sox: John Lackey, $16.0MM.
- Reds: Joey Votto, $19MM.
- Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa and Michael Cuddyer, $10.5MM.
- Royals: Ervin Santana, $12.75MM. He's still their highest-paid player if you subtract money received from the Angels.
- Tigers: Prince Fielder, $23MM.
- Twins: Joe Mauer, $23MM.
- White Sox: John Danks, $15.75MM.
- Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, $29MM.
Dodgers Face Decision On Ted Lilly
5:55pm: Lilly has agreed to make another minor league rehab start, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Presumably, this will buy the Dodgers a bit of time to make a decision, but the clock is still ticking.
7:44am: The Dodgers are at a standoff with lefty Ted Lilly after the 14-year veteran refused a minor league assignment Saturday, reported MLB.com's Ken Gurnick yesterday. The team must activate him, designate him for assignment, release him, or trade him.
"We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn't want to be part of the plan. It's out of my hands. We didn't feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it's a baseball decision. It's nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We're giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team," manager Don Mattingly told Gurnick.
Mattingly did say using Lilly in relief is a possibility, though the team (and perhaps the pitcher) is not enamored of the idea.
Lilly began the 2012 season on the disabled list with a neck injury, and in May hit the DL again with shoulder inflammation. That ended his season, and he had shoulder surgery in September. Still recovering, he began this year on the DL as well. He's made two minor league rehab starts, allowing five earned runs in six innings in each. The Dodgers recently moved Chris Capuano to their rotation to replace the injured Zack Greinke.
The Dodgers created a rotation surplus this winter in signing Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but they received little for Aaron Harang earlier this month and Lilly has been similarly devalued. Lilly is earning $12MM this year, so the Dodgers would again have to pick up a significant portion to move him. They could certainly buy some time by sticking him in the bullpen, though doing so repeatedly with veteran starters is not a great way to do business. In the long-term, this Harang/Capuano/Lilly situation could dissuade some mid-level players from signing with the Dodgers.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Central Notes: Cubs, Twins, Reds
The Cubs held a press conference today to discuss their $500MM plan to "save Wrigley Field and invest in the city." The deal has not been finalized, but an agreement has been reached with the city of Chicago. "If this plan is approved, we will win the World Series for our fans and our city," said owner Tom Ricketts. Elsewhere in baseball's central divisions:
- The Twins recalled one of their best prospects today from Triple-A, promoting outfielder Oswaldo Arcia and placing Wilkin Ramirez on paternity leave. Arcia, a 21-year-old from Venezuela, was ranked the 41st best prospect in the game by Baseball America and placed 59th on Keith Law's list for ESPN. Arcia seems unlikely to stick, with Ramirez due back in three days.
- Another top central division prospect may have his service clock started soon, as John Fay of Cincinnati Enquirer says the Reds "will likely call up left-hander Tony Cingrani from Triple-A to make [Johnny] Cueto's next scheduled start." Cueto is on the DL with a strained right lat muscle, and the Reds limited to Cingrani to two innings in his Sunday Triple-A start. Cueto will miss three or four starts, Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters today.
- "I think he has a chance to be a true No. 1," a scout tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports regarding Twins prospect Alex Meyer. The Twins acquired Meyer from the Nationals straight up for Denard Span in November.
- Though Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and Rangers GM Jon Daniels have not discussed swapping Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar, ESPN's Jim Bowden continues to advocate this potential "challenge" trade. Bowden admits that his first trade as Reds GM was a challenge trade in its own right, as he dealt Paul O'Neill and a minor leaguer to the Yankees for Roberto Kelly. Concludes Bowden, "True, that O’Neill-for-Kelly deal will haunt me to my grave, but it was the gutsiest trade I’ve ever made."
