Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Poll: When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 11:40am CDT

The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs in his first 371 games, leading MLB in slugging percentage last year as a 22-year-old. He's under team control through 2016 and hasn't gotten expensive yet. The Marlins sliced payroll drastically in the November blockbuster with the Blue Jays, but Stanton won't even be arbitration eligible until after this season. If we look at the examples of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett, they were traded with three years of big league service time, a point Stanton will reach after this season.

The 2005 Marlins were trying to win, however, and that's probably why Beckett was dealt after the season rather than during it. Cabrera was not dealt as part of the team's fire sale during the 2005-06 offseason, but rather after the '07 season. So, Cabrera stayed with the club for two full post-fire sale seasons.

When star shortstop Hanley Ramirez had two years of big league service, the Marlins signed him to a record-setting six-year extension. He remained with the team for the first three-plus years of that deal, and was traded to the Dodgers after a notable decline in performance.

Your turn to weigh in: with nearly every team in baseball wanting to get their hands on Giancarlo Stanton, when will he be traded?

When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?

During the 2013 season 40.12% (5,433 votes)

During the 2013-14 offseason 30.46% (4,125 votes)

During the 2014 season 7.30% (988 votes)

During the 2014-15 offseason 6.76% (915 votes)

Stanton will walk as a free agent after '16 4.41% (597 votes)

Stanton will sign a long-term extension to stay in Miami 4.39% (595 votes)

During the 2015-16 offseason 2.67% (361 votes)

During the 2015 season 2.30% (312 votes)

During the 2016 season 1.60% (217 votes)

Total Votes: 13,543

The Future Of Barry Zito

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 10:26am CDT

Giants lefty Barry Zito has thrown 14 scoreless innings across two starts to begin his 2013 season. Why does this matter? As Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News notes, Zito will trigger an $18MM option for 2014 if he reaches 200 innings this season. Furthermore, Zito would have the option of taking a $3.5MM buyout and becoming a free agent instead.

When I mentioned this a week ago, I didn't give much thought to the idea of Zito reaching 200 innings — he hasn't done it since his 2006 contract year with the A's. But now, he has 14 innings in the books for his first two starts. Here are his innings pitched per start numbers as a Giant:

2007: 5.93
2008: 5.63
2009: 5.82
2010: 6.01
2011: 5.52
2012: 5.76

If we generously assume that Zito will make 33 starts this year, he needs 186 over his final 31, for an average of exactly six innings per start from here on out. Zito is capable of pulling this off, but I would not bet on it.

If Zito does reach 200 innings, Kawakami suggests the 2014 option triggering would be a good thing for the Giants. That's because the Giants would have to pay a hefty $7MM buyout if Zito does not reach the threshold, so it's really a marginal cost of $11MM. He makes a good point.

Kawakami also notes that Zito could choose $3.5MM and free agency, instead. If Zito could demand a two-year, $26.5MM deal (as Ryan Dempster did), plus the $3.5MM buyout, would that be better than just taking the $18MM for one year? Yes, unless Zito is relatively certain he could get more than $12MM for his age 37 season in 2015. If Zito does opt for free agency, I think the Giants would be unlikely to make a qualifying offer.

Zito's agent, Scott Boras, will be a big factor if he reaches 200 innings. Boras is likely to push for free agency, as he has so many times before in these situations.

Extension Candidate: Jason Heyward

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 9:30am CDT

Braves right fielder Jason Heyward is one of few star-caliber players currently going year-to-year. Just 23 years old, Heyward is under the Braves' control as an arbitration eligible player through 2015. What would a fair extension look like for the Excel Sports Management client?

One comparable could be the Orioles' Adam Jones. Jones signed a six-year, $85.5MM extension in May of last year, about three months after the salary for his second arbitration year was determined. A Heyward extension, if it were done during this season, would include that second arb year. Jones was closer to free agency than Heyward is, which generally gets the player more money. Since Heyward has less service time than Jones did, perhaps the Braves could replace the fifth guaranteed free agent year with a club option. That would put us around $75MM over six years (2014-19). Even if the 2020 club option is exercised, Heyward would be able to enter free agency at age 31 and get another big contract.

The Braves, perhaps, could point to an older but more evenly matched Orioles outfielder extension, the one Baltimore did with Nick Markakis prior to the 2009 season. At the three-year service point, Markakis compared favorably to Heyward in terms of OBP and SLG. Both players had exactly 59 career home runs, but Markakis had 33% more RBIs and a superior platform year, one in which he posted a .406 OBP. So even though that contract is four years old, the Braves could make a case against guaranteeing much more than the $63.1MM Markakis received covering his second arbitration year through his third free agent year (five years in total for that slice). The Orioles did not get a club option on Markakis or Jones, however, so that will be a tough sell for Heyward.

One thing to note about Heyward, of which the Braves are surely aware, is that last year he derived a lot of value through defense, and that generally doesn't pay in arbitration. Last year's high-water marks of 27 home runs and 82 RBIs are decent, but Heyward would have to take his offensive counting stats to another level to break the bank in arbitration. In February there was talk of the Braves trying to buy out Heyward's arbitration years, but I don't see much reason for the club to do a two-year deal. They haven't done a long arbitration year extension in general since Brian McCann in March 2007, according to our extension tracker, and Heyward has significantly more service time than McCann did. If the Braves want to secure some of Heyward's free agent years, now might be the ideal time. A five or six-year offer in the $63-75MM range would be fair.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Monitoring Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez

By Tim Dierkes | April 11, 2013 at 8:04am CDT

The Mets "retain an unfilled craving for a marquee outfielder," writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, and are monitoring superstars such as Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies. One Mets person told Martino "there is heat there," in regard to the team having a preliminary discussion with the Marlins about Stanton. Still, Martino is unsure whether GMs Sandy Alderson and Larry Beinfest have discussed the powerful right fielder.

To acquire four years of Stanton, the Mets would likely have to part with their two best prospects, pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis D'Arnaud. An associate of Alderson's told Martino the GM "did not have any extra attachment to those players, simply because he traded for them."

According to Martino, the Mets debated using Wheeler to get Justin Upton or Wil Myers, during the Winter Meetings. They also considered asking for the Dodgers' Andre Ethier in an R.A. Dickey deal, and this spring checked in on the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano. So, it appears the Mets' long-term interest in improving the outfield runs the gamut, from the game's best young stars to overpaid veterans. The Mets were willing to increase payroll to the $125MM range last winter for the right players, writes Martino.

Keep in mind that no deals are close, and the idea that Stanton or CarGo could become available this year is speculation.

Mariners Close To Acquiring Aaron Harang

By Tim Dierkes | April 10, 2013 at 1:36pm CDT

The Mariners are close to acquiring righty Aaron Harang from the Rockies, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says the teams are working through the final details, including approval from the commissioner's office, since the Rockies will be sending cash in the deal. Rosenthal adds that the Rockies will receive a minor league right-handed reliever from the Mariners in the trade.

The Rockies acquired Harang and $4.25MM from the Dodgers for catcher Ramon Hernandez last week, and then immediately designated Harang for assignment. Harang earns $7MM this year and has a $2MM buyout after the season, and the Rockies will send money to the Mariners to cover some of that. The Rockies will have saved close to $2.5MM in the series of trades, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio, implying they're sending around $5MM to the Mariners in this trade. That would leave Seattle paying about $4MM to Harang.

Harang, 35 next month, posted a 3.61 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 179 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year. His peripheral stats from 2012 suggest an ERA close to 5.00. This isn't the Harang of his Reds glory days, when he pitched 230 innings a year with around four strikeouts for every walk. Harang will likely replace Blake Beavan in Seattle's rotation.

The Mariners and Rockies last matched up on a trade in December 2010, when Colorado acquired Jose Lopez for Chaz Roe. More recently, a pitcher jumped from the Mariners to the Rockies when Jon Garland exercised his opt-out clause to leave the Mariners in March and signed with Colorado.

Originally published April 11th, 2013 at 12:38pm.

Jered Weaver To Miss 4-6 Weeks

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2013 at 1:10pm CDT

1:10pm: The Angels are not interested in Harang and will instead replace Weaver with Richards, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.

11:55am: Angels righty Jered Weaver is out four to six weeks with a broken left (non-pitching) elbow, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The injury was suffered Sunday night as Weaver dove away from a Mitch Moreland line drive. The Angels have since announced Weaver being placed on the DL, with righty reliever Dane De La Rosa being added and Andrew Taylor transferred to the 60-day DL.

There were already some concerns about the health of Weaver's right arm, noted Dave Cameron of FanGraphs yesterday, but losing him for a month or so will put their depth to the test.

The Angels could stretch Garrett Richards out to start, turn to Jerome Williams, or dip into Triple-A for someone like Barry Enright. Though April trades are rare, the Rockies' Aaron Harang is available and the Dodgers' Chris Capuano ought to be. The Dodgers' Ted Lilly, who has a rehab start tomorrow night, is not likely to join Capuano in the team's bullpen. He should also be on the market.

How Many Good Players Are Going Year-To-Year?

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2013 at 11:36am CDT

More than ever, baseball's best players are choosing the security of a multiyear deal as opposed to the higher risk and reward of going year-to-year. But exactly how many of the game's best players are currently on one-year deals?

In 2012, 115 players accumulated at least 3.0 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. 82 of them (71%) are on multi-year contracts. Some of these players have expiring multiyear deals, like Robinson Cano, and some are on short two-year deals covering just a pair of arbitration seasons, like Clayton Kershaw. But most of them are locked up, like Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, David Wright, Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, and Adrian Beltre. Of these 82 good players on multiyear deals, only 26 of them (32%) signed as free agents (counting Yu Darvish but excluding Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia). Of the 25 players worth at least five wins in 2012, only four of them (Beltre, Michael Bourn, Aramis Ramirez, and Torii Hunter) are signed to free agent contracts.

Only 33 players who were worth three wins or more in 2012 are currently going year-to-year, including the two such free agents who signed one-year deals (Hiroki Kuroda and A.J. Pierzynski). Taking out the two free agents (but including Aroldis Chapman since he can opt for arbitration when he has the service time), we're left with 31 young, good players who are currently going year-to-year. The top 15 by 2012 WAR:

Why aren't these 31 players under multiyear contracts yet? Nine of them have less than two years of big league service. While players at that service level do sign multiyear deals, teams don't have a ton of urgency since arbitration is not looming. Also, nine of the 31 players (and five of the top 14) are clients of the Boras Corporation. Boras is playing a major role in advising top young players against signing multiyear deals before free agency. Arbitration and free agency are on the decline, but not if Boras can help it.

Ranking Agencies By 2012 WAR

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2013 at 10:35am CDT

Which agency's players have the most MLB talent? One way of answering that question is to rank the agencies by 2012 wins above replacement (from FanGraphs). Here are the results for total 2012 WAR (please note that players with negative WAR were omitted):

Boras Corporation: 104.4
CAA Sports: 102.1.
ACES: 78.8.
SFX: 72.6.
Wasserman Media Group: 66.5.
Excel Sports Management: 62.4.
The Legacy Agency: 56.0.
Octagon: 52.1.
MVP Sports Group: 34.3.
LSW Baseball: 25.9.
Beverly Hills Sports Council: 26.1.
Frontline: 20.6.
Reynolds Sports Management: 18.4.
Sosnick/Cobbe: 18.1.
Hendricks Sports: 17.4.

Some interesting information arises when we rank agencies by WAR per big league player, filtering to those with at least ten players. WAR per player:

Excel Sports Management: 2.40.
Boras Corporation: 2.09.
Frontline: 2.06.
CAA Sports: 2.04.
LSW Baseball: 1.99.
MVP Sports Group: 1.81.
Octagon: 1.80.
The Legacy Agency: 1.75.
Moye Sports Associates: 1.68.
Reynolds Sports Management: 1.67.
Sosnick/Cobbe: 1.65.
Hendricks Sports: 1.58.
SFX: 1.51.
ACES: 1.49.
Wasserman Media Group: 1.41.

Beverly Hills Sports Council ranks outside the top 15, with 1.04. They had only two players who exceeded 2.0 WAR, Jason Kipnis and Ryan Ludwick. But perhaps in some cases WAR per player is deceiving, because a large agency like Boras gets dinged for having small contributions from players like Jacob Turner or Zach Britton. So, here's a listing of the number of four-win players by agency:

Boras Corporation: 8 (Adrian Beltre, Michael Bourn, Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg).
CAA Sports: 7 (Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Jake Peavy, Adam Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, David Freese). You'll note that CAA is credited for having Cano now, even though Boras had him in 2012.
ACES, Excel Sports Management, The Legacy Agency: tied at 5.

Octagon and Wasserman Media Group had three each.

What have we learned? Boras still reigns supreme, in terms of depth of MLB talent and star power. CAA is very close on both fronts with the addition of Cano, though the second baseman's association with Roc Nation Sports muddies the waters a bit. ACES remains strong — in terms of three-win players, they rank behind only Boras and CAA, with nine.

MLBTR's agency database was used for this post; please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com with any corrections or omissions.

Extensions Down This Offseason

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2013 at 8:48am CDT

From the end of the 2012 season until present, 25 players with less than six years of Major League service time signed multiyear extensions. However, from the end of the 2011 season through April 30th, 2012, 37 such deals were signed. So, we've seen a notable decrease in extensions this offseason. During both offseasons, the average value of these arbitration year extensions has been around $28-29MM.

This offseason, arbitration eligible players signed deals later in their careers. The average service time of an extended player this offseason was right around four years, as opposed to three years and 126 days the previous winter. One notable difference is in the number of players extended with less than two years of big league service. So far this offseason we've had only one such player, Paul Goldschmidt, and he received $32MM. The previous offseason, six players signed with less than two years service: Jonathan Lucroy, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Santana, Cory Luebke, Salvador Perez, and Matt Moore. Only Bumgarner topped $21MM. Some of those deals are among the most team-friendly in baseball, so perhaps agents have begun to dissuade these players from signing so quickly for $15MM or less.

One possible reason for the apparent decline in extensions: maybe we're not done this month. Santana, Bumgarner, and Erick Aybar signed after April 9th, back in 2012. Guys will certainly sign later during the season as well, but I thought it made sense to consider April 30th to be the end of the offseason, for the purposes of this post.

MLBTR's Extension Tracker was used for this post; please check it out.

MLBTR Agency Database

By Tim Dierkes | April 8, 2013 at 8:41pm CDT

Behind every multi-million dollar MLB contract, there's an agent. Ever wonder who represents your favorite players? Just check out MLBTR's agency database, which lists agencies for over 1,700 players. Agents: if you notice any errors or omissions, please email me at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com. And if you'd really like to help, click below to see a list of 86 players for whom I still need agency information.

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