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Each Team’s Highest-Paid Player

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When calculating the amount of the Qualifying Offer, MLB and the players' union find the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players.  For each player on a 40-man roster or the 60-day DL on August 31st, they total his base salary, pro-rated signing bonus, pro-rated buyout on the first club or mutual option year, and earned bonuses at year's end.  The calculations are more complicated in some cases, but just by following the basics of that method I thought it'd be interesting to list each team's highest-paid player in 2013.

Dodgers Face Decision On Ted Lilly

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5:55pm: Lilly has agreed to make another minor league rehab start, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Presumably, this will buy the Dodgers a bit of time to make a decision, but the clock is still ticking.

7:44am: The Dodgers are at a standoff with lefty Ted Lilly after the 14-year veteran refused a minor league assignment Saturday, reported MLB.com's Ken Gurnick yesterday.  The team must activate him, designate him for assignment, release him, or trade him.

"We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn't want to be part of the plan. It's out of my hands. We didn't feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it's a baseball decision. It's nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We're giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team," manager Don Mattingly told Gurnick.

Mattingly did say using Lilly in relief is a possibility, though the team (and perhaps the pitcher) is not enamored of the idea.

Lilly began the 2012 season on the disabled list with a neck injury, and in May hit the DL again with shoulder inflammation.  That ended his season, and he had shoulder surgery in September.  Still recovering, he began this year on the DL as well.  He's made two minor league rehab starts, allowing five earned runs in six innings in each.  The Dodgers recently moved Chris Capuano to their rotation to replace the injured Zack Greinke.

The Dodgers created a rotation surplus this winter in signing Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but they received little for Aaron Harang earlier this month and Lilly has been similarly devalued.  Lilly is earning $12MM this year, so the Dodgers would again have to pick up a significant portion to move him.  They could certainly buy some time by sticking him in the bullpen, though doing so repeatedly with veteran starters is not a great way to do business.  In the long-term, this Harang/Capuano/Lilly situation could dissuade some mid-level players from signing with the Dodgers.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Central Notes: Cubs, Twins, Reds

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The Cubs held a press conference today to discuss their $500MM plan to "save Wrigley Field and invest in the city."  The deal has not been finalized, but an agreement has been reached with the city of Chicago.  "If this plan is approved, we will win the World Series for our fans and our city," said owner Tom Ricketts.  Elsewhere in baseball's central divisions:

  • The Twins recalled one of their best prospects today from Triple-A, promoting outfielder Oswaldo Arcia and placing Wilkin Ramirez on paternity leave.  Arcia, a 21-year-old from Venezuela, was ranked the 41st best prospect in the game by Baseball America and placed 59th on Keith Law's list for ESPN.  Arcia seems unlikely to stick, with Ramirez due back in three days.
  • Another top central division prospect may have his service clock started soon, as John Fay of Cincinnati Enquirer says the Reds "will likely call up left-hander Tony Cingrani from Triple-A to make [Johnny] Cueto's next scheduled start."  Cueto is on the DL with a strained right lat muscle, and the Reds limited to Cingrani to two innings in his Sunday Triple-A start.  Cueto will miss three or four starts, Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters today.
  • "I think he has a chance to be a true No. 1," a scout tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports regarding Twins prospect Alex Meyer.  The Twins acquired Meyer from the Nationals straight up for Denard Span in November.
  • Though Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and Rangers GM Jon Daniels have not discussed swapping Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar, ESPN's Jim Bowden continues to advocate this potential "challenge" trade.  Bowden admits that his first trade as Reds GM was a challenge trade in its own right, as he dealt Paul O'Neill and a minor leaguer to the Yankees for Roberto Kelly.  Concludes Bowden, "True, that O’Neill-for-Kelly deal will haunt me to my grave, but it was the gutsiest trade I’ve ever made."     

Blue Jays Designate Casper Wells For Assignment

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The Blue Jays designated outfielder Casper Wells for assignment, according to a team press release.  The Jays made the move upon purchasing the contract of pitcher Ramon Ortiz.  The Jays had claimed Wells off waivers from the Mariners last Wednesday, after the Ms designated him for assignment on March 31st.  Wells is out of options, so he'll need to clear waivers before being sent to the minors.

Wells, 28, hit .228/.302/.396 in 316 plate appearances for the Mariners last year, spending time at all three outfield positions.  He did not get into a game for the Blue Jays since last week's claim.  Wells owns a .264/.349/.489 career line against left-handed pitching.  He had joined the Mariners in July 2011 as part of the deal that sent Doug Fister to Detroit.  

Next Offseason’s Best Free Agent Starter

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With Adam Wainwright off the market due to a long-term extension, starting pitching will not be a strength of the 2013-14 free agent class.  Big names like Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum have struggled in the early going, while Matt Garza has yet to make his season debut.  There's an opening for a surprise candidate to end up being the most popular free agent starter.  Make your pick in our latest poll.

Who is the best starting pitcher of the upcoming free agent class?
Josh Johnson 19.58% (3,103 votes)
Tim Lincecum 13.47% (2,135 votes)
Roy Halladay 11.11% (1,761 votes)
Tim Hudson 11.07% (1,754 votes)
Matt Garza 10.59% (1,678 votes)
Paul Maholm 9.67% (1,532 votes)
Hiroki Kuroda 6.58% (1,043 votes)
Barry Zito 3.60% (570 votes)
Someone not listed 3.37% (534 votes)
Jason Hammel 3.04% (482 votes)
A.J. Burnett 2.69% (426 votes)
Andy Pettitte 1.80% (285 votes)
Dan Haren 1.72% (273 votes)
Ervin Santana 1.33% (210 votes)
Joe Saunders 0.37% (59 votes)
Total Votes: 15,845

Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Maholm

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Braves lefty Paul Maholm is off to an amazing start this season.  He's begun the season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 20 and walking five.  The 30-year-old has nice timing — he's eligible for free agency after the season.

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Maholm was a free agent once before, when the Pirates chose a $750K buyout over his $9.75MM club option after the 2011 season.  He was good that year, but his season ended in August due to a shoulder strain.  Not only did the Cubs get him on a one-year deal, but they were also able to tack on a club option.  That improved Maholm's trade value, and the Braves gave up a notable arm in Arodys Vizcaino to acquire him last July.  Maholm finished strong with Atlanta, improving his strikeout rate over his final 11 starts.  His $6.5MM club option was an easy decision to exercise last October.

Assuming the Braves do not extend Maholm during the season, they'll be faced with the question of whether to make a qualifying offer.  The qualifying offer process had its first run last offseason, and the Braves were one of seven teams to make one (to Michael Bourn).  That worked out well, and I think there's a good chance they'll make one to Maholm – even if the qualifying offer comes in near my projection of $14MM.  Maholm does not generally feel worthy of a one-year offer in the $14MM range, though Hiroki Kuroda did better than that last winter.  And while I don't know that Maholm's nice start in 2013 should change our perception of him, if he pitches at a 3.90 ERA from this point forward, his season ERA should come in below 3.50.  Plus, if some of the increased strikeout rate sticks, Maholm can shake the stigma of being a pitch-to-contact guy.

So if Maholm enters free agency at age 31, coming off a sub-3.50 ERA campaign, he'll be expecting a multiyear deal this time.  That means he should turn down the qualifying offer.  Kyle Lohse is the cautionary tale: he was coming off 399 1/3 innings of 3.11 ball over two seasons, and faced a slow market due in part to being attached to a draft pick.  But as many have pointed out, Lohse also entered the market with the standard Boras-inflated price tag, and teams shied away for that reason too.  Maholm and agent Bo McKinnis might consider Lohse's three-year, $33MM contract to be close to fair value.

Lohse's contract was the fourth-largest signed by a pitcher last offseason, and the biggest for one who received a qualifying offer.  Maholm will enter free agency as a 31-year-old, while Lohse was 34.  A fourth guaranteed year could prove elusive for Maholm if he turns down a qualifying offer.  Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez were able to get it, but both pitchers were under 30 and did not require forfeiture of a draft pick.  Perhaps Maholm could at least top Lohse's $11MM average annual value.

The "best free agent starter" label goes a long way, however.  Just ask C.J. Wilson, a good, 31-year-old pitcher who received a five-year, $77.5MM deal after the 2011 season, with draft pick compensation attached.  There is a lot of baseball left to be played — most of it, actually — but if Maholm keeps rolling while Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum remain inconsistent, the Braves lefty is a dark horse candidate for the title of best free agent starter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Future Chase Headley Suitors

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Padres third baseman Chase Headley aims to make his 2013 season debut this week after fracturing his thumb in March.  Headley, who turns 29 in May, has a lot of factors conspiring to make him a trade candidate this summer:

  • He's very good at baseball.  Headley's baseball card numbers last year were fantastic: 31 home runs and 115 RBIs.  He finished fifth in the NL MVP vote and snagged a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.  He was worth 7.2 wins above replacement, sixth among all position players last year.
  • To date, the Padres have not signed him to a long-term contract extension.  There's good reason for this.  As a player who came into his power later in his team-controlled career, Headley wasn't necessarily worth extending until this past offseason.  Now, with only one season of more than 12 home runs on his resume, it's likely difficult to pin down a fair offer for both sides.  Still, star-caliber non-Boras guys with four-plus years of big league service who are not locked up are a rarity.  2014 will be Headley's contract year, so he may prefer to just play it out and get a piece of that free agent pie.
  • Headley is more than a rental, since he's under control through 2014.  Teams strongly prefer that when giving up top prospects in trades.  The general logic is that the Padres can get more for Headley this summer than during the offseason (assuming he plays decently upon his return).  Plus, even though the Padres have not reached an extension agreement with Headley, that exclusive extension window is valuable to some teams.
  • Though only 7.4% of their season is in the books, the Padres are not looking like contenders, with a 2-10 record.  This can change, of course, but the team would need to play .580 ball from here on out to reach 89 wins.

This raises the question: which contenders could use a middle of the order third baseman?  

  • The Yankees have Kevin Youkilis under contract, though Headley would be a better option at the hot corner.  Youk can also play first base, but Mark Teixeira will be back manning that position by the time trading season rolls around.  Travis Hafner seems a nice fit as the semi-regular designated hitter.  With his recovery from hip surgery and the Biogenesis situation, the Yankees shouldn't count on Alex Rodriguez for anything, but if he is able to play this year it will further clog up the third base and DH spots.  So while Headley would be nice to have, it'd be complicated, unless the Yankees suffer new injuries.
  • The Blue Jays are all-in this year, and if they gain some comfort with the idea of Brett Lawrie at second base, they could add Headley and keep Jose Bautista in right field.
  • The Royals appear set at third base with Mike Moustakas, but they could upgrade to Headley and include Moustakas in the trade.  This is another team that has invested a lot in winning now.
  • It's a similar situation for the Indians and Lonnie Chisenhall — it seems like he'd have to be part of the deal for them to make sense.  
  • Jeff Keppinger has been pressed into second base duty for the White Sox following Gordon Beckham's injury.  But either player could shift to a utility role with a Headley acquisition, or Beckham could be part of the deal.
  • The Athletics have Josh Donaldson at third base, but Headley would be an upgrade.  Same goes for the Angels and Alberto Callaspo.  
  • The National League is light on good trade partners for Headley at present, but the Braves are an obvious match.  He'd be a huge addition for a team that is looking great in the early going.
  • I won't completely rule out the Orioles, Cardinals, Pirates, Rockies, or Dodgers.  But whether due to third base incumbents or the reduced chances of an intra-division trade, these teams seem unlikely.

Quick Hits: Josh Johnson, DH, Trade Candidates

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Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson, ranked as our top free agent starter after this season, had the shortest start of his career today in Detroit.  Johnson recorded only four outs, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks.  With struggling starters Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum and the injured Matt Garza also on that list, the 2013-14 free agent market could be light on starting pitching.  Only three contract year hurlers have thrown well in each of their first two starts: Andy Pettitte, Paul Maholm, and A.J. Burnett.  On to today's links:

  • "If I go out and do my job and do what I'm supposed to do, things will take care of themselves. That's all I can worry about," Johnson told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick regarding his upcoming free agency.
  • American League teams have an advantage in signing free agent sluggers because of the designated hitter, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told ESPN's Jayson Stark.  Melvin thinks the NL will eventually adopt the DH, but before that can happen, at least six NL owners will need to be on board and there would have to be an agreement with the players' union.  One of Stark's sources suggests this change will not happen until after Commissioner Bud Selig retires.
  • One more from ESPN: Jim Bowden named the ten players he finds most likely to be dealt by the deadline, beginning with the Padres' Chase Headley.  Check out MLBTR's midseason trade candidates post here.
  • International bonus pool money can be traded this summer!  Ben Badler of Baseball America explains the rules.

Mariners Acquire Aaron Harang; Designate Loe

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The Mariners added rotation depth today, offically acquiring veteran Aaron Harang and cash from the Rockies for minor league reliever Steven Hensley.  The Mariners also announced they've designated Kameron Loe for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Harang.

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The Rockies acquired Harang and $4.25MM from the Dodgers for catcher Ramon Hernandez last week, and then immediately designated Harang for assignment.  Harang earns $7MM this year and has a $2MM buyout after the season, and the Rockies will send money to the Mariners to cover most of that.  The Rockies will save more than $2MM with the series of trades, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Harang, 35 next month, posted a 3.61 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 179 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year.  His peripheral stats from 2012 suggest an ERA close to 5.00.  This isn't the Harang of his Reds glory days, when he pitched 230 innings a year with around four strikeouts for every walk.  Harang will likely replace Blake Beavan in Seattle's rotation.  Hensley, 26, posted a 6.27 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 1.21 HR/9 in 37 1/3 Triple-A innings last year.

Loe, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in February but allowed six home runs in 6 2/3 innings to start his season.

The Mariners and Rockies last matched up on a trade in December 2010, when Colorado acquired Jose Lopez for Chaz Roe.  More recently, a pitcher jumped from the Mariners to the Rockies when Jon Garland exercised his opt-out clause to leave the Mariners in March and signed with Colorado.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the trade was close.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Kicking Tires On Julio Borbon

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The Twins are kicking the tires on Rangers center fielder Julio Borbon, a team official tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN.  Wolfson senses the Twins won't trade for Borbon, but could claim him off waivers if he's available to them.  Wolfson notes that struggling rookie center fielder Aaron Hicks is a factor for the Twins.

Borbon, 27, was designated for assignment by the Rangers yesterday.  During the first month of the season, last season's records are used to determine waiver order, so the Astros, Cubs, and Rockies will have a crack at Borbon before the Twins if he does hit waivers next week.  Borbon hit .304/.349/.433 in 584 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

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