Blue Jays Designate Casper Wells For Assignment
The Blue Jays designated outfielder Casper Wells for assignment, according to a team press release. The Jays made the move upon purchasing the contract of pitcher Ramon Ortiz. The Jays had claimed Wells off waivers from the Mariners last Wednesday, after the Ms designated him for assignment on March 31st. Wells is out of options, so he'll need to clear waivers before being sent to the minors.
Wells, 28, hit .228/.302/.396 in 316 plate appearances for the Mariners last year, spending time at all three outfield positions. He did not get into a game for the Blue Jays since last week's claim. Wells owns a .264/.349/.489 career line against left-handed pitching. He had joined the Mariners in July 2011 as part of the deal that sent Doug Fister to Detroit.
Next Offseason’s Best Free Agent Starter
With Adam Wainwright off the market due to a long-term extension, starting pitching will not be a strength of the 2013-14 free agent class. Big names like Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum have struggled in the early going, while Matt Garza has yet to make his season debut. There's an opening for a surprise candidate to end up being the most popular free agent starter. Make your pick in our latest poll.
Who is the best starting pitcher of the upcoming free agent class?
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Josh Johnson 20% (3,103)
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Tim Lincecum 13% (2,135)
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Roy Halladay 11% (1,761)
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Tim Hudson 11% (1,754)
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Matt Garza 11% (1,678)
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Paul Maholm 10% (1,532)
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Hiroki Kuroda 7% (1,043)
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Barry Zito 4% (570)
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Someone not listed 3% (534)
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Jason Hammel 3% (482)
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A.J. Burnett 3% (426)
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Andy Pettitte 2% (285)
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Dan Haren 2% (273)
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Ervin Santana 1% (210)
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Joe Saunders 0% (59)
Total votes: 15,845
Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Maholm
Braves lefty Paul Maholm is off to an amazing start this season. He's begun the season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 20 and walking five. The 30-year-old has nice timing — he's eligible for free agency after the season.
Maholm was a free agent once before, when the Pirates chose a $750K buyout over his $9.75MM club option after the 2011 season. He was good that year, but his season ended in August due to a shoulder strain. Not only did the Cubs get him on a one-year deal, but they were also able to tack on a club option. That improved Maholm's trade value, and the Braves gave up a notable arm in Arodys Vizcaino to acquire him last July. Maholm finished strong with Atlanta, improving his strikeout rate over his final 11 starts. His $6.5MM club option was an easy decision to exercise last October.
Assuming the Braves do not extend Maholm during the season, they'll be faced with the question of whether to make a qualifying offer. The qualifying offer process had its first run last offseason, and the Braves were one of seven teams to make one (to Michael Bourn). That worked out well, and I think there's a good chance they'll make one to Maholm – even if the qualifying offer comes in near my projection of $14MM. Maholm does not generally feel worthy of a one-year offer in the $14MM range, though Hiroki Kuroda did better than that last winter. And while I don't know that Maholm's nice start in 2013 should change our perception of him, if he pitches at a 3.90 ERA from this point forward, his season ERA should come in below 3.50. Plus, if some of the increased strikeout rate sticks, Maholm can shake the stigma of being a pitch-to-contact guy.
So if Maholm enters free agency at age 31, coming off a sub-3.50 ERA campaign, he'll be expecting a multiyear deal this time. That means he should turn down the qualifying offer. Kyle Lohse is the cautionary tale: he was coming off 399 1/3 innings of 3.11 ball over two seasons, and faced a slow market due in part to being attached to a draft pick. But as many have pointed out, Lohse also entered the market with the standard Boras-inflated price tag, and teams shied away for that reason too. Maholm and agent Bo McKinnis might consider Lohse's three-year, $33MM contract to be close to fair value.
Lohse's contract was the fourth-largest signed by a pitcher last offseason, and the biggest for one who received a qualifying offer. Maholm will enter free agency as a 31-year-old, while Lohse was 34. A fourth guaranteed year could prove elusive for Maholm if he turns down a qualifying offer. Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez were able to get it, but both pitchers were under 30 and did not require forfeiture of a draft pick. Perhaps Maholm could at least top Lohse's $11MM average annual value.
The "best free agent starter" label goes a long way, however. Just ask C.J. Wilson, a good, 31-year-old pitcher who received a five-year, $77.5MM deal after the 2011 season, with draft pick compensation attached. There is a lot of baseball left to be played — most of it, actually — but if Maholm keeps rolling while Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum remain inconsistent, the Braves lefty is a dark horse candidate for the title of best free agent starter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Future Chase Headley Suitors
Padres third baseman Chase Headley aims to make his 2013 season debut this week after fracturing his thumb in March. Headley, who turns 29 in May, has a lot of factors conspiring to make him a trade candidate this summer:
- He's very good at baseball. Headley's baseball card numbers last year were fantastic: 31 home runs and 115 RBIs. He finished fifth in the NL MVP vote and snagged a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. He was worth 7.2 wins above replacement, sixth among all position players last year.
- To date, the Padres have not signed him to a long-term contract extension. There's good reason for this. As a player who came into his power later in his team-controlled career, Headley wasn't necessarily worth extending until this past offseason. Now, with only one season of more than 12 home runs on his resume, it's likely difficult to pin down a fair offer for both sides. Still, star-caliber non-Boras guys with four-plus years of big league service who are not locked up are a rarity. 2014 will be Headley's contract year, so he may prefer to just play it out and get a piece of that free agent pie.
- Headley is more than a rental, since he's under control through 2014. Teams strongly prefer that when giving up top prospects in trades. The general logic is that the Padres can get more for Headley this summer than during the offseason (assuming he plays decently upon his return). Plus, even though the Padres have not reached an extension agreement with Headley, that exclusive extension window is valuable to some teams.
- Though only 7.4% of their season is in the books, the Padres are not looking like contenders, with a 2-10 record. This can change, of course, but the team would need to play .580 ball from here on out to reach 89 wins.
This raises the question: which contenders could use a middle of the order third baseman?
- The Yankees have Kevin Youkilis under contract, though Headley would be a better option at the hot corner. Youk can also play first base, but Mark Teixeira will be back manning that position by the time trading season rolls around. Travis Hafner seems a nice fit as the semi-regular designated hitter. With his recovery from hip surgery and the Biogenesis situation, the Yankees shouldn't count on Alex Rodriguez for anything, but if he is able to play this year it will further clog up the third base and DH spots. So while Headley would be nice to have, it'd be complicated, unless the Yankees suffer new injuries.
- The Blue Jays are all-in this year, and if they gain some comfort with the idea of Brett Lawrie at second base, they could add Headley and keep Jose Bautista in right field.
- The Royals appear set at third base with Mike Moustakas, but they could upgrade to Headley and include Moustakas in the trade. This is another team that has invested a lot in winning now.
- It's a similar situation for the Indians and Lonnie Chisenhall — it seems like he'd have to be part of the deal for them to make sense.
- Jeff Keppinger has been pressed into second base duty for the White Sox following Gordon Beckham's injury. But either player could shift to a utility role with a Headley acquisition, or Beckham could be part of the deal.
- The Athletics have Josh Donaldson at third base, but Headley would be an upgrade. Same goes for the Angels and Alberto Callaspo.
- The National League is light on good trade partners for Headley at present, but the Braves are an obvious match. He'd be a huge addition for a team that is looking great in the early going.
- I won't completely rule out the Orioles, Cardinals, Pirates, Rockies, or Dodgers. But whether due to third base incumbents or the reduced chances of an intra-division trade, these teams seem unlikely.
Quick Hits: Josh Johnson, DH, Trade Candidates
Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson, ranked as our top free agent starter after this season, had the shortest start of his career today in Detroit. Johnson recorded only four outs, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks. With struggling starters Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum and the injured Matt Garza also on that list, the 2013-14 free agent market could be light on starting pitching. Only three contract year hurlers have thrown well in each of their first two starts: Andy Pettitte, Paul Maholm, and A.J. Burnett. On to today's links:
- "If I go out and do my job and do what I'm supposed to do, things will take care of themselves. That's all I can worry about," Johnson told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick regarding his upcoming free agency.
- American League teams have an advantage in signing free agent sluggers because of the designated hitter, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told ESPN's Jayson Stark. Melvin thinks the NL will eventually adopt the DH, but before that can happen, at least six NL owners will need to be on board and there would have to be an agreement with the players' union. One of Stark's sources suggests this change will not happen until after Commissioner Bud Selig retires.
- One more from ESPN: Jim Bowden named the ten players he finds most likely to be dealt by the deadline, beginning with the Padres' Chase Headley. Check out MLBTR's midseason trade candidates post here.
- International bonus pool money can be traded this summer! Ben Badler of Baseball America explains the rules.
Mariners Acquire Aaron Harang; Designate Loe
The Mariners added rotation depth today, offically acquiring veteran Aaron Harang and cash from the Rockies for minor league reliever Steven Hensley. The Mariners also announced they've designated Kameron Loe for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Harang.
The Rockies acquired Harang and $4.25MM from the Dodgers for catcher Ramon Hernandez last week, and then immediately designated Harang for assignment. Harang earns $7MM this year and has a $2MM buyout after the season, and the Rockies will send money to the Mariners to cover most of that. The Rockies will save more than $2MM with the series of trades, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Harang, 35 next month, posted a 3.61 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 179 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year. His peripheral stats from 2012 suggest an ERA close to 5.00. This isn't the Harang of his Reds glory days, when he pitched 230 innings a year with around four strikeouts for every walk. Harang will likely replace Blake Beavan in Seattle's rotation. Hensley, 26, posted a 6.27 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 1.21 HR/9 in 37 1/3 Triple-A innings last year.
Loe, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in February but allowed six home runs in 6 2/3 innings to start his season.
The Mariners and Rockies last matched up on a trade in December 2010, when Colorado acquired Jose Lopez for Chaz Roe. More recently, a pitcher jumped from the Mariners to the Rockies when Jon Garland exercised his opt-out clause to leave the Mariners in March and signed with Colorado.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the trade was close. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Kicking Tires On Julio Borbon
The Twins are kicking the tires on Rangers center fielder Julio Borbon, a team official tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Wolfson senses the Twins won't trade for Borbon, but could claim him off waivers if he's available to them. Wolfson notes that struggling rookie center fielder Aaron Hicks is a factor for the Twins.
Borbon, 27, was designated for assignment by the Rangers yesterday. During the first month of the season, last season's records are used to determine waiver order, so the Astros, Cubs, and Rockies will have a crack at Borbon before the Twins if he does hit waivers next week. Borbon hit .304/.349/.433 in 584 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
Poll: When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?
The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs in his first 371 games, leading MLB in slugging percentage last year as a 22-year-old. He's under team control through 2016 and hasn't gotten expensive yet. The Marlins sliced payroll drastically in the November blockbuster with the Blue Jays, but Stanton won't even be arbitration eligible until after this season. If we look at the examples of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett, they were traded with three years of big league service time, a point Stanton will reach after this season.
The 2005 Marlins were trying to win, however, and that's probably why Beckett was dealt after the season rather than during it. Cabrera was not dealt as part of the team's fire sale during the 2005-06 offseason, but rather after the '07 season. So, Cabrera stayed with the club for two full post-fire sale seasons.
When star shortstop Hanley Ramirez had two years of big league service, the Marlins signed him to a record-setting six-year extension. He remained with the team for the first three-plus years of that deal, and was traded to the Dodgers after a notable decline in performance.
Your turn to weigh in: with nearly every team in baseball wanting to get their hands on Giancarlo Stanton, when will he be traded?
When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?
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During the 2013 season 40% (5,433)
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During the 2013-14 offseason 30% (4,125)
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During the 2014 season 7% (988)
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During the 2014-15 offseason 7% (915)
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Stanton will walk as a free agent after '16 4% (597)
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Stanton will sign a long-term extension to stay in Miami 4% (595)
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During the 2015-16 offseason 3% (361)
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During the 2015 season 2% (312)
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During the 2016 season 2% (217)
Total votes: 13,543
The Future Of Barry Zito
Giants lefty Barry Zito has thrown 14 scoreless innings across two starts to begin his 2013 season. Why does this matter? As Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News notes, Zito will trigger an $18MM option for 2014 if he reaches 200 innings this season. Furthermore, Zito would have the option of taking a $3.5MM buyout and becoming a free agent instead.
When I mentioned this a week ago, I didn't give much thought to the idea of Zito reaching 200 innings — he hasn't done it since his 2006 contract year with the A's. But now, he has 14 innings in the books for his first two starts. Here are his innings pitched per start numbers as a Giant:
- 2007: 5.93
- 2008: 5.63
- 2009: 5.82
- 2010: 6.01
- 2011: 5.52
- 2012: 5.76
If we generously assume that Zito will make 33 starts this year, he needs 186 over his final 31, for an average of exactly six innings per start from here on out. Zito is capable of pulling this off, but I would not bet on it.
If Zito does reach 200 innings, Kawakami suggests the 2014 option triggering would be a good thing for the Giants. That's because the Giants would have to pay a hefty $7MM buyout if Zito does not reach the threshold, so it's really a marginal cost of $11MM. He makes a good point.
Kawakami also notes that Zito could choose $3.5MM and free agency, instead. If Zito could demand a two-year, $26.5MM deal (as Ryan Dempster did), plus the $3.5MM buyout, would that be better than just taking the $18MM for one year? Yes, unless Zito is relatively certain he could get more than $12MM for his age 37 season in 2015. If Zito does opt for free agency, I think the Giants would be unlikely to make a qualifying offer.
Zito's agent, Scott Boras, will be a big factor if he reaches 200 innings. Boras is likely to push for free agency, as he has so many times before in these situations.
Extension Candidate: Jason Heyward
Braves right fielder Jason Heyward is one of few star-caliber players currently going year-to-year. Just 23 years old, Heyward is under the Braves' control as an arbitration eligible player through 2015. What would a fair extension look like for the Excel Sports Management client?
One comparable could be the Orioles' Adam Jones. Jones signed a six-year, $85.5MM extension in May of last year, about three months after the salary for his second arbitration year was determined. A Heyward extension, if it were done during this season, would include that second arb year. Jones was closer to free agency than Heyward is, which generally gets the player more money. Since Heyward has less service time than Jones did, perhaps the Braves could replace the fifth guaranteed free agent year with a club option. That would put us around $75MM over six years (2014-19). Even if the 2020 club option is exercised, Heyward would be able to enter free agency at age 31 and get another big contract.
The Braves, perhaps, could point to an older but more evenly matched Orioles outfielder extension, the one Baltimore did with Nick Markakis prior to the 2009 season. At the three-year service point, Markakis compared favorably to Heyward in terms of OBP and SLG. Both players had exactly 59 career home runs, but Markakis had 33% more RBIs and a superior platform year, one in which he posted a .406 OBP. So even though that contract is four years old, the Braves could make a case against guaranteeing much more than the $63.1MM Markakis received covering his second arbitration year through his third free agent year (five years in total for that slice). The Orioles did not get a club option on Markakis or Jones, however, so that will be a tough sell for Heyward.
One thing to note about Heyward, of which the Braves are surely aware, is that last year he derived a lot of value through defense, and that generally doesn't pay in arbitration. Last year's high-water marks of 27 home runs and 82 RBIs are decent, but Heyward would have to take his offensive counting stats to another level to break the bank in arbitration. In February there was talk of the Braves trying to buy out Heyward's arbitration years, but I don't see much reason for the club to do a two-year deal. They haven't done a long arbitration year extension in general since Brian McCann in March 2007, according to our extension tracker, and Heyward has significantly more service time than McCann did. If the Braves want to secure some of Heyward's free agent years, now might be the ideal time. A five or six-year offer in the $63-75MM range would be fair.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.