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Who Could Be Released This Year?

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Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Carlos Silva suffered the indignity a year ago of being paid to go away, as the three were released with $31.5MM remaining on their contracts in total.  Here are some big money players who stand a chance of being cut at some point in 2012.

  • Vernon Wells, Angels: three years, $63MM.  The contract gives Wells first crack as the Angels' starting left fielder.  With Mike Trout waiting in the wings, Wells needs to produce in the first half.  Bobby Abreu, owed $9MM this year, seems more likely to be traded than released.
  • Alfonso Soriano, Cubs: three years, $54MM.  There is plenty of positive talk about Soriano this spring, but the Cubs' new management team might not let him finish the season if his on-base percentage remains around .290.
  • Barry Zito, Giants: two years, $46MM.  Zito is penciled in as the Giants' fifth starter, but he's probably on a short leash.  
  • Alex Rios, White Sox: three years, $38MM.  Adam Dunn, White Sox: three years, $44MM.  The Sox might as well see if Rios and/or Dunn can bounce back to some extent, but if either has an awful first half, the team could move on.
  • Jason Bay, Mets: two years, $35MM.  Those looking for signs of life from Bay can point to his final month last year.  But if his performance matches the other five months (.234/.318/.342) the Mets could pull the plug.
  • Carlos Zambrano, Marlins: one year, $18MM.  The Cubs picked up most of the tab on Zambrano, so if he becomes a disruption despite the chance of scenery, the Marlins could let him go.
  • Chone Figgins, Mariners: two years, $17MM.  The Mariners aim to rejuvenate Figgins by giving him a shot to bat leadoff in 2012.  If that fails, he could be released.
  • Juan Uribe, Dodgers: two years, $16MM.  Uribe is hoping to wipe the slate clean and stick as the team's starting third baseman.
  • Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins: two years, $6.25MM.  Nishioka is competing for a utility infielder job, and if he doesn't make the cut the next step would be Triple-A.
  • Brandon Inge, Tigers: one year, $6MM. Inge is currently in the mix for second base and will probably be needed to back up Miguel Cabrera at third.  The Tigers removed Inge from the 40-man roster last July, but re-added him a few weeks later.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles: one year, $5.8MM.  Though the Orioles don't seem to project Gregg for a key role in 2012, releasing him now would be harsh.
  • Brandon Lyon, Astros: one year, $5.5MM.  There's plenty of room in Houston's bullpen for Lyon to reclaim a late-inning role.  That's the best case scenario.

White Sox Considering Mike Gonzalez, Arthur Rhodes

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The White Sox have shown interest in lefty relievers Mike Gonzalez and Arthur Rhodes, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  

Gonzalez, a Scott Boras client, remains unsigned with the season a few weeks away.  Boras told me on Friday his client is "in play with a lot of teams right now," and "sometimes late doesn't mean demand, it just means choice."  At this point, however, Gonzalez's ability to secure a Major League deal is in jeopardy.  Last week, he turned down a minor league offer to return to the Rangers.  The White Sox currently have 37 players on their 40-man roster, so they could add Gonzalez without losing anyone.  Rhodes, 42, is more likely to settle for a minor league deal, in my opinion.  He aims to pitch one more season before retiring.

With Will Ohman and Matt Thornton, the Sox already have a pair of southpaws in their bullpen.  In theory, adding someone like Gonzalez could make a Thornton trade more palatable.

Heyman also notes that the White Sox were the other team in on third baseman Eric Chavez at the end.  Chavez ultimately re-upped with the Yankees.

Mariano Rivera May Announce Decision Before All-Star Break

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"I think maybe it will be before the All-Star break," legendary Yankees closer Mariano Rivera told Kevin Kernan of the New York Post regarding an announcement of whether he will pitch in 2013.  Rivera wants to be certain of his decision, which he seems to have already made privately.  Rivera said that when he does retire, "It would be nice that you tell the fans, so every stadium you go to, the fans will be there to show their appreciation and you appreciate the fans."

If Rivera retires, the Yankees will have determine a new closer for the first time in many years.  David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, and Joba Chamberlain could be candidates.

The Biggest Surprise Of The Offseason

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The 2011-12 offseason was one for the ages, with five $100MM+ commitments and plenty of big trades.  Please vote below on the biggest surprise of the offseason. 

What was the biggest surprise of the 2011-12 offseason?
Angels sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson 36.47% (8,617 votes)
Tigers sign Prince Fielder 20.41% (4,823 votes)
Yankees acquire Michael Pineda 9.80% (2,315 votes)
Athletics sign Yoenis Cespedes 6.98% (1,650 votes)
Roy Oswalt does not sign 6.27% (1,482 votes)
Marlins sign Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell 5.75% (1,359 votes)
Reds acquire Mat Latos 2.91% (688 votes)
Athletics sign Manny Ramirez 2.80% (662 votes)
Pirates acquire A.J. Burnett 2.75% (650 votes)
Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos 1.85% (436 votes)
Ryan Madson receives one-year deal 1.74% (411 votes)
Marlins acquire Carlos Zambrano 0.67% (159 votes)
White Sox extend John Danks 0.55% (131 votes)
Rays extend Matt Moore 0.37% (88 votes)
Edwin Jackson receives one-year deal 0.36% (85 votes)
David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson accept arbitration 0.30% (71 votes)
Total Votes: 23,627

Latest On Cole Hamels

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3:15pm: The sides aren't close to a deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

1:41pm: Negotiations between the Phillies and lefty Cole Hamels are heating up, in the opinion of Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.  Hamels' agent John Boggs is spending the week in the Clearwater area and has been talking to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.  Boggs finds a deal unlikely before he leaves, but he's not setting a deadline.

For Hamels' vague thoughts on his next contract from a few weeks ago, click here.  Hamels, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, and Brandon McCarthy are the best starters eligible for free agency after the 2012 season.

Angels Seek Lefty Reliever

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The Angels are looking around for a left-handed reliever, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.  Having committed $23MM to Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi during the 2010-11 offseason, left-handed relief is a surprising target.

During this offseason, the Angels signed righty relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen.  If they focus on a southpaw, Mike Gonzalez and Arthur Rhodes are still on the free agent market.  Matt Thornton, Will Ohman, and Sean Burnett are a few that might be available in trade, in my estimation.

Some people who talk with the Angels are convinced they'll trade designated hitter Bobby Abreu this spring, adds Knobler, and perhaps they can kill two birds with one stone.  Abreu, 38 this month, hit .253/.353/.365 last year and is owed $9MM in 2012.

Carlos Guillen Retires

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Infielder Carlos Guillen announced his retirement today, according to the Mariners on Twitter.  He'd returned to his old team this offseason on a minor league deal.

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Guillen, 36, has spent an increasing amount of time on the disabled list in the last four seasons.  In a 14-year career for the Mariners and Tigers, he hit .285/.355/.443 with 124 home runs in 1,305 games.  He was a three-time All-Star with the Tigers, garnering MVP votes in '04 and '06.  The Venezuelan spent the bulk of his career at shortstop, but also logged innings at the other infield positions and left field.  Baseball-Reference indicates he earned about $69MM in his career, which included a four-year, $48MM contract with Detroit.  Guillen came up through the Astros' farm system, but was traded with Freddy Garcia and (eventually) John Halama to the Mariners for Randy Johnson at the July 1998 deadline.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

2013 Vesting Options

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Which players can lock in 2013 contract options based on their 2012 performance?  Let's take a look.

  • Jason Bartlett, Padres: $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances.
  • Alex Gonzalez, Brewers: $4MM option vests with 525 plate appearances.
  • Chipper Jones, Braves: $9MM+ option vests with 123 games.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles: $6MM option vests with 50 games finished.
  • Brett Myers, Astros: $10MM option vests based on unknown starting or relieving milestones.

Trade Candidate: John Lannan

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John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang are currently battling for the Nationals' fifth starter job, a competition created by the team's Edwin Jackson signing last month.  Since Wang was re-signed as a free agent in November, Lannan seems more likely to be traded this spring.

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Lannan, a 27-year-old southpaw, posted a 3.70 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, and 54.1% groundball rate in 184 2/3 innings last year.  Though his career ERA sits at an even 4.00, Lannan's recent SIERA figures suggest he's more of a 4.50-type pitcher.  He's pitched 182 or more innings in each of the last four seasons, including a minor league stint in 2010.  Lannan takes the ball every fifth day, and his groundball rate ranked sixth in the National League in 2011.

With a $5MM salary, Lannan provides a modest amount of surplus value.  He's technically under team control through 2013, but if another typical season pushes him to the $7.5MM salary range for that season, he might be non-tendered this December.  So, Lannan's trade value lies mostly with the 2012 season.

It's difficult to find a team with a big need for $5MM innings guy right now.  The Brewers may have mild concerns over Shaun Marcum's shoulder, but Marco Estrada would be a suitable fill-in.  A.J. Burnett's Pirates debut may be delayed until June due to a broken orbital bone beneath his eye, but would the team be inclined to spend an additional $5MM because of that half-season injury?  The Giants' Ryan Vogelsong is dealing with back pain, but he'll miss less time than Burnett.  The Angels have standard fifth starter uncertainty given Jerome Williams' hamstring injury, but not enough to necessitate an acquisition.

The Orioles' rotation has its share of aches and pains, but plenty of candidates as well.  The Red Sox and Blue Jays could use some depth, but their current candidates are more interesting than Lannan, if less reliable.  The Indians have four pitchers vying for their fifth starter job.

The Tigers seem a bit more open than most to adding a starting pitcher, though presumably not at the cost of $5MM and/or a useful young player.  There's also a case for the Athletics to add someone like Lannan.  Overall, though, it's clearly a buyer's market if the Nationals look to trade the lefty.  Though GM Mike Rizzo has said he's always open-minded to any deal that positively impacts the club, I don't think it'll happen with Lannan this spring unless another club suffers a major loss in its rotation.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Latest On Matt Cain

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The Giants and Matt Cain appear to have positive momentum in contract extension talks, based on this passage from Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com:

From what I’ve been told, the two sides have reached greater common ground in recent weeks. Cain wants to stay and the Giants have the wherewithal to keep him. Those tend to be the most important factors. It’ll be a surprise to many, both in the organization and out, if Cain’s deal doesn’t get done before the season starts.

The Giants open the season in Arizona one month from today.  Cain, a CAA Sports client, has signed extensions with the Giants twice before.  The second contract bought out one free agent year, giving Cain a $15MM salary in 2012 before he's eligible for free agency.  As a 27-year-old in his prime, Cain should become the seventh pitcher in baseball history to sign for more than $100MM.  There's "no shot" he signs for less, a person familiar with the situation told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

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