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Official Elias Rankings

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MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for this offseason. The list below includes all unsigned ranked free agents.

Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2010-11 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation.  If a Type A free agent turns down an arbitration offer and signs a Major League deal elsewhere the losing team gets two draft picks, one of them coming from the new team.  If a Type B free agent turns down an arbitration offer and signs a Major League deal elsewhere the losing team gets one draft pick in the supplemental round, and it doesn't come from the new team.  Keep in mind that an arbitration offer is necessary for draft pick compensation.

The numbers beside the players' names represent their rankings. If teams sign more than one Type A free agent, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.

Type A

  • Albert Pujols, Cardinals – 95.200
  • Prince Fielder, Brewers – 91.200
  • C.J. Wilson, Rangers – 90.988
  • David Ortiz, Red Sox – 86.000
  • Ryan Madson, Phillies – 82.948
  • Heath Bell, Padres – 81.437
  • Carlos Beltran, Giants – 80.879 (cannot be offered arbitration)
  • Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – 80.292
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds – 78.947
  • Roy Oswalt, Phillies – 78.350
  • Michael Cuddyer, Twins – 77.671
  • Josh Willingham, Athletics – 77.534
  • Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays – 74.725
  • Matt Capps, Twins – 73.788
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers – 72.880
  • Jose Reyes, Mets – 77.249
  • Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – 76.720
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers – 75.671
  • Octavio Dotel, Cardinals – 70.922
  • Takashi Saito, Brewers – 69.627
  • Francisco Cordero, Reds – 68.486

Type B

  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs – 71.978
  • Mark Ellis, Rockies – 71.429
  • Rod Barajas, Dodgers – 70.489
  • Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles – 70.000
  • Alex Gonzalez, Braves – 69.312
  • Mark Buehrle, White Sox – 68.508
  • Jason Kubel, Twins – 68.219
  • Frank Francisco, Blue Jays – 68.211
  • Raul Ibanez, Phillies – 68.022
  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates – 67.857
  • Bruce Chen, Royals – 67.248
  • Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers – 66.422
  • Chris Snyder, Pirates – 65.414
  • Brad Lidge, Phillies – 64.477
  • David DeJesus, Athletics – 64.384
  • Derrek Lee, Pirates – 64.000
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers – 63.288
  • Edwin Jackson, Cardinals – 63.154
  • Ryan Ludwick, Pirates – 62.637
  • Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks – 62.500
  • Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers – 61.905
  • Kerry Wood, Cubs – 61.764
  • Freddy Garcia, Yankees – 61.240
  • Juan Pierre, White Sox – 61.233
  • Jon Rauch, Blue Jays – 61.083
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox – 60.905
  • Cody Ross, Giants – 60.879
  • Aaron Harang, Padres – 60.294
  • Wilson Betemit, Tigers – 59.740
  • Jose Molina, Blue Jays – 59.586
  • Carlos Pena, Cubs – 59.200
  • Pat Burrell, Giants – 59.121
  • Arthur Rhodes, Cardinals – 59.019
  • Shawn Camp, Blue Jays – 57.680
  • Jason Varitek, Red Sox – 57.143
  • Rafael Furcal, Cardinals – 56.085
  • Clint Barmes, Astros – 55.556

Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Kelly Johnson and Joel Zumaya.

Indians Acquire Derek Lowe

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We have our first trade of the 2011-12 offseason!  The Indians acquired Derek Lowe from the Braves, tweets John Kreger.  The Braves will pay all but $5MM of Lowe's $15MM salary, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney says the Braves will receive 23-year-old High-A lefty reliever Chris Jones in return for Lowe.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein provides a quick scouting report.

Lowe

Lowe, 38, posted a 5.05 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, and 59% groundball rate in 187 innings this year for Atlanta.  Lowe's Braves career ended on a sour note, as his 8.75 September ERA contributed to their collapse.  Still, his groundball rate ranked second in all of baseball.  Lowe signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Braves in January of 2009.  

With Lowe, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona, the Indians' rotation now has three of MLB's top seven in 2011 groundball rate.  Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Tomlin are also penciled in, with Carlos Carrasco down for Tommy John surgery.

For the Braves, the benefit is $5MM in much-needed salary relief for a pitcher otherwise projected for middle relief on their 2012 club.  The Braves and Indians last matched up on a trade in July of 2006, when the Tribe sent reliever Bob Wickman to Atlanta for Max Ramirez.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Braves Exercise Option On Hinske, Decline On McLouth

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The Braves announced today they've exercised their option on first baseman/outfielder Eric Hinske and declined their option on center fielder Nate McLouth.

The Braves chose Hinske's $1.5MM club option over a $100K buyout.  The 34-year-old hit .233/.311/.403 in 264 plate appearances this year.

The decision on McLouth was obvious, as the Braves faced a $10.65MM club option and a $1.25MM buyout.  The 30-year-old outfielder hit .228/.344/.333 on the season.

Indians Exercise Option On Carmona, Decline On Sizemore

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The Indians announced today they've exercised their club option on Fausto Carmona and declined their option on Grady Sizemore.

Carmona would have earned more than the $7MM option price as an arbitration eligible player, and the Indians made the expected choice to retain him.

Sizemore spent his entire career with the Indians, peaking in 2008 with a tenth-place finish in the MVP voting.  Due to Sizemore's health concerns, the Indians chose a $500K buyout over a $9MM option for 2012.  Sizemore has had several surgeries in recent years but expects to be ready for Spring Training, so he'll be appealing on a one-year deal to many teams.

Pirates Decline Options On Maholm, Snyder, Doumit, Cedeno

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The Pirates announced today they've declined club options on Paul Maholm, Chris Snyder, Ryan Doumit, and Ronny Cedeno.

The decision on Cedeno was the Pirates' one unknown.  Though a case could be made that the value of Cedeno's ability to play shortstop exceeded the $2.8MM net price of his option, the Pirates will aim higher than his .249/.297/.339 batting line.

For Maholm, the Pirates chose a $750K buyout over his $9.75MM club option.  The lefty told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, "The day I was put on the DL, I realized my time in Pittsburgh was done."  Prior to that season-ending stint for a shoulder injury, the 29-year-old posted a 3.66 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, and 49.9% groundball rate in 162 1/3 innings.  As one of the ten best starters on the free agent market this winter, he's in line for a multiyear deal.

The Pirates' decisions to pay Snyder a $750K buyout over a $6.75MM option and Doumit a $500K buyout over a $7.25MM option were well-known.  Both players have offensive ability, and should be relatively popular on the free agent market.  Doumit's defense and durability questions will likely prevent a team from offering a full-time catching job, while Snyder will have to compete for one after missing most of 2011 with a back injury.

Rockies Decline Option On Aaron Cook

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The Rockies declined their 2012 option on righty Aaron Cook, tweets Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post.  The Rockies will pay Cook a $500K buyout as opposed to the $11MM option.  GM Dan O'Dowd says the door is open for Cook to return on a new contract.

With 72 wins, Cook is 14 ahead of Jason Jennings on the team's franchise leaderboard.  Cook posted a 6.03 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, and 55.1% groundball rate in 97 innings this year.  He signed his extension after the '07 season.  Cook battled shoulder, toe, and finger injuries in the following seasons, his innings totals declining each year.

Nationals Exercise Option On Davey Johnson

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The Nationals announced today they've exercised Davey Johnson's managerial option for 2012.  GM Mike Rizzo said in a statement:

After a series of discussions, it became obvious that the Nationals would be best served if Davey Johnson would continue as manager.  Davey’s remarkable connection to the clubhouse and D.C. community during the season’s final three months was well received. His baseball acumen coupled with a proper off-season of planning, including a full regiment of Spring Training, should put our players in a position to succeed in 2012.

Johnson assumed the Nationals' manager job on June 27th, shortly after Jim Riggleman resigned.  Johnson, a former infielder, has managed 15 years in the Majors for the Mets, Reds, Orioles, Dodgers, and Nationals.  He won the World Series in 1986 and Manager of the Year in '97.

Tony La Russa Retires

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Tony La Russa is retiring after 33 seasons as a manager, and he's going out on top.  He told reporters his decision today at a press conference, three days after his Cardinals won the World Series.  La Russa captured three World Championships in his career and won Manager of the Year four times.  He managed the White Sox, Athletics, and Cardinals in a career that began in 1979.  Prior to that, La Russa played six seasons in the Majors as a middle infielder.

Free Agent And Trade Market For Center Fielders

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The Athletics, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, and Giants are the key teams likely to seek center field help this offseason, and they'll be best served by the trade market.

Starting Center Fielders Available In Free Agency

Coco Crisp is likely to sign a multiyear deal, as he's the one viable everyday center fielder on the free agent market.  This was his healthiest year since '07, but if his on-base percentage doesn't bounce back he's not an asset at the top of a batting order.  

MLB.com's Jordan Bastian tweets that the Indians are expected to choose a $500K buyout over Grady Sizemore's $9MM club option Monday.  That implies that Sizemore has little trade value on a one-year, $8.5MM deal.  If nothing else, Sizemore showed some pop in 71 games this year, but his health is a huge concern.  Since 2009 Sizemore has missed time due to injuries to his elbow, abdominal wall, and left knee, the last of which required microfracture surgery in June of 2010.  He had surgery for a sports hernia this year, and a right knee injury culminated in an October arthroscopy.  He's expected to be ready for Spring Training, and a one-year, incentive-laden deal with a base salary around $5MM makes for an intriguing gamble.

Thinking Outside The Box

With so few everyday center fielders available in free agency most years, teams with openings will have to be creative.  One option would be to try Endy Chavez as a center field regular; he hasn't filled that role since 2003-04 with the Expos.  His career was sidelined by a torn ACL operated on over two years ago, but his half-season with the Rangers this year was promising.

Agent Scott Boras said in March that Carlos Beltran could play center field effectively, but teams looking to invest in the 34-year-old probably won't count on that.  David DeJesus hasn't played 500 innings in center since '08, but Cody Ross tallied over 700 just last year.

Quality Backups

Assuming he doesn't retire, Mike Cameron's batting line with Florida suggests teams will have interest.  Rick Ankiel and Nate McLouth are also candidates to get Major League deals to serve as part-time players.

Non-Tender Candidates

The list of center field non-tender candidates is strong.  The Mets' Angel Pagan may be deemed unworthy of a $4.7MM arbitration salary, but there's an argument he was worth almost five times that amount in 2010.  The Giants' Andres Torres is an even more extreme example; he projects at $2.5MM through arbitration and was arguably worth over ten times that amount last year.  If teams have faith in the 2010 seasons of Pagan and Torres, they'll be popular trade targets prior to December 12th.  There's also a chance the Dodgers' Tony Gwynn Jr. is cut loose, though he projects to make only $1.1MM through arbitration.

Other Trade Candidates

Extending Matt Kemp is a top priority for Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, and Kemp doesn't want to talk contract during the season.  With Kemp entering his walk year, trade rumors will pick up if the extension talks fail.  Interest would be immense around the game for the MVP candidate.

Melky Cabrera projects at $4.4MM next year, and a multiyear deal with the Royals looks unlikely.  He's a trade candidate this winter coming off a fine offensive season.  The Rays' B.J. Upton is a fit for the more defensively-minded club, and he projects at $7.6MM in his last year before free agency.  Marlon Byrd, set to earn $6.5MM this year, may be expendable for the Cubs.  Denard Span, signed potentially through 2015, was often linked to the Nationals during the summer.  Hopefully the dizziness and vertigo he suffered this year are behind him.  Mitch Maier, Carlos Gomez, Chris Coghlan, Rajai Davis, and Alex Rios are other names to watch on the center field trade market.

Check out the full free agent list, as well as our articles on the markets at catcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants want to determine the long-term futures of their top starting pitchers, and support them in 2012 with improved offense at shortstop or in the outfield. 

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Giants won a World Series in 2010 based on great pitching, despite a middling offense.  The following offseason GM Brian Sabean was not aggressive in pursuing upgrades, and the Giants' offense had little margin for error heading into the 2011 season.  Huff and Torres declined markedly this year, while Sandoval and Buster Posey suffered critical injuries.  The result was the worst offense in the National League, despite solid midseason additions of Beltran and Keppinger.

It's natural to think Sabean adds a couple of offensive-minded position players this winter, but payroll constraints could get in the way.  The team's payroll is expected to remain around $125MM, and the Giants have an expensive and large arbitration class.  Lincecum, Sanchez, and Sandoval could total nearly $30MM.  Non-tendering or trading other arbitration eligibles like Torres and Fontenot won't make a big difference.  Sabean spoke in September about Jonathan Sanchez as a viable candidate for the fifth starter job, but trading him could create much-needed payroll flexibility.  Keppinger is another movable piece, if the Giants feel Freddy Sanchez will be healthy for 2012.  Declining Affeldt's option or exercising it and trading the lefty could clear some payroll space, but Sabean expects the reliever back next year.  Lopez may depart for greener pastures, but he's worthy of an arbitration offer, enabling the Giants to acquire a supplemental draft pick.

Sabean's initial offseason focus is clear, as he told reporters, "Our pitching’s going to get expensive, that’s the punch line and we have to take care of that first."  Cain is locked in at $15MM next year, but it's clear Sabean views extending him as a pressing concern.  Any years added beyond 2012 will surely be north of $15MM, so Cain's situation affects the Giants' ability to sign big multiyear free agent deals. 

Lincecum's salary is an unknown, but with a historic arbitration case on the horizon, the Giants can expect $18-20MM for 2012.  Lincecum's 2013 salary projects as even more, and knocking a few million off per year with a multiyear deal would create cost certainty.  If Lincecum drives a hard bargain, his two arbitration years might cost the team $40MM as part of a multiyear deal.  Adding another six free agent years at $22MM per season would result in a contract worth more than $170MM, the largest ever for a pitcher.  I'm not sure the Giants should take that plunge. 

The Giants are interested in re-signing Beltran, and you have to wonder if there is an element of saving face since they surrendered top prospect Zack Wheeler for a couple months of Beltran in the July trade.  Sabean's comments imply a greater focus on a leadoff hitter/center fielder.  Coco Crisp would probably require a two-year deal, and he posted just a .314 on-base percentage this year.  Grady Sizemore and David DeJesus are one-year deal options, though their ability to play center field every day is in question.  The best free agent fit might be Jimmy Rollins, an Oakland native who could fill the team's shortstop and leadoff void while also improving the defense.  The idea of signing Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols seems silly, having discussed the Giants' payroll and priorities.

The Giants project to have at least one more year of elite pitching, so it's up to the game's longest-tenured GM to assemble a passable offense.  Sabean appears to be up against budget limitations, though he has mentioned the possibility of asking ownership for additional money toward adding a specific player.  That request makes sense, with the window on Cain and Lincecum potentially closing.

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