Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets
The Mets are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Manny Acosta
- Second time: Mike Pelfrey
- Third time: Ronny Paulino
- Fourth time: Angel Pagan, Taylor Buchholz
It appears likely that the Mets will tender Pelfrey a contract, perhaps for the value of providing innings and the possibility that he'll be a little better next year. We have his salary in the $5.9MM range. Pagan is another player on the bubble. He projects for $4.7MM and is an easy choice to tender if the Mets consider his 2011 UZR a fluke. Buchholz missed most of the season for a shoulder injury and depression; he projects around $1.2MM.
Acosta and Paulino will be affordable, at about $1MM and $1.5MM respectively. They figure to be tendered contracts.
The Mets have $66.83MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. If everyone but Buchholz remains, that puts them near $80MM plus Tim Byrdak's salary. Mets GM Sandy Alderson implied earlier this month that the team may cut payroll to the $100-110MM range. That'd leave enough money for Jose Reyes and a few other pieces, and that's assuming most arbitration eligible players are tendered and no one is traded.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
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Rosenthal On Moneyball
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday. Here are a few highlights.
- Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today. I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
- Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years. He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters."
- Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
- Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
- Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment. DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.
Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Zambrano, Quade, Hughes
The Cubs project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft, though it's a tight race. The latest on the club:
- Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez said yesterday that he'd probably played his last game as a Cub, noting that he's ready to move on and expects to hit the open market. Today, Ramirez told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that he doesn't think interim GM Randy Bush has the power to sign a big free agent, therefore nothing will come of today's meeting between Bush and his agent Paul Kinzer. Ramirez still prefers to stay with the Cubs, but he doesn't want to be part of a rebuilding process. If he hits the market, he'll easily be the best third baseman available.
- Kinzer also represents Starlin Castro, Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, and John Grabow, notes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat, so today's meeting probably won't just be about Ramirez.
- Manager Mike Quade answered a question about Carlos Zambrano from Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald, saying, "I'd like his arm back if he fit into the mix. But it would be tough for him to come back, for me." The Zambrano situation will be a tough assignment for the new GM.
- Quade expects to be back next year, he told Sullivan and other reporters.
- Longtime Cubs adviser Gary Hughes resigned yesterday, and ESPN's Buster Olney thinks he could land with the Marlins.
Nationals Scouting C.J. Wilson
The Nationals will have a scout at C.J. Wilson's start tonight in Oakland, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Ladson takes this as a sign that the Nationals will "more than likely" have interest in signing Wilson as a free agent after the season.
Wilson, 31 in November, is putting the finishing touches on a fantastic regular season. He has a 2.97 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and 49.5% groundball rate in 215 1/3 innings. The lefty has been tough to hit as well.
A 2012 rotation led by Wilson, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann could make the Natioanals contenders. They'll have to ante up, as Wilson has a strong case for a contract bigger than the five-year, $82.5MM deals given to John Lackey and A.J. Burnett.
Jocketty Says Phillips Will Be Back
Reds GM Walt Jocketty said second baseman Brandon Phillips will be back next year, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay takes that to mean the Reds will pick up Phillips' $12MM option in the least. The two sides have had preliminary talks on an extension, so it may not come to that.
Phillips is opposed to the idea of the Reds picking up the option. He told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon earlier this month, "If they just pick my option up and don't extend me, I feel like that's a slap in my face. If the team wants you, they will make room. They will show you they want you here, period. They did it for some of the other guys. If they're going to have me for just one year, I feel like they don't see me in the future."
The Reds probably would prefer some kind of backloaded extension, because simply exercising the option would give them limited payroll space for 2012. Phillips, 30, is hitting .294/.346/.452 with 18 home runs in 648 plate appearances this year with above-average defense at second base.
Arbitration Eligibles: Florida Marlins
The Marlins are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Chris Volstad, Emilio Bonifacio, Donnie Murphy, Brian Sanches, John Baker
- Second time: Clay Hensley, Edward Mujica, Burke Badenhop
- Third time: Anibal Sanchez
- Fourth time: Leo Nunez
Volstad is probably interesting enough where the Marlins won't want to cut him loose. His projected $2.6MM salary shouldn't scare anyone off, but perhaps the Fish will trade him if they don't envision him in next year's rotation. Even with a $600K projection, I think Murphy will be non-tendered. Sanches is looking at about $1MM, and there's a chance the team lets him go. Baker had Tommy John surgery a year ago, and the Marlins must decide whether he can catch next year and is worth $800K. The Hensley starting experiment failed, but at $1.8MM I think he still has value as a reliever.
Everyone else seems on firmer ground to be tendered contracts: Bonifacio ($1.9MM), Mujica ($1.6MM), Badenhop ($1.1MM), Sanchez ($5.9MM), and Nunez ($5.8MM). Sanchez could be an extension candidate. We heard in July that Nunez would be retained for 2012; I don't know if his shaky August changed that. He has performance bonuses for games finished, which could push next year's salary past $6MM.
We've heard quite a bit about the Marlins' willingness to spend money this offseason, but these arbitration decisions are not as much about whether the team can afford the players but rather whether the players are worth their projected salaries. I think we're looking at $12.3MM if only Bonifacio, Hensley, Mujica, Badenhop, and Sanchez stay and the others are traded or non-tendered. That'd push the team's commitments to about $58MM before accounting for arbitration eligible players, but you can add as much as $9MM more if you see Nunez and Volstad on next year's team.
MLB.com's Joe Frisaro has estimated a significant bump to an $80MM payroll, which in my estimation means anywhere from $13-22MM to spend depending on Nunez and Volstad. Say it's $22MM. The team has potential needs at center field, third base, second base, the bullpen, and especially the rotation, so if the Marlins sign just one player with an eight-figure salary they'd have to skimp on other needs. Someone like C.J. Wilson makes more sense to me if the team is willing to jump to a $90MM payroll as they head into their new stadium.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Epstein, Ozzie, Beltran
Links for Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Braves try to fend off several wild card challengers…
- Red Sox GM Theo Epstein failed to accumulate the necessary pitching depth, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Epstein has become a popular target this month, but the criticism holds more water for me if the author was pointing out the team's depth issues before the season or in July. Morosi, to his credit, questioned Boston's rotation in April.
- On a similar note, the John Lackey contract looks ugly right now. But it wasn't regarded that way when Lackey signed in December of 2009. In fact, ESPN's Jayson Stark did a poll of "20 wise baseball men" prior to the 2010 season, and Lackey's contract was voted the best signing of the offseason (right before Chone Figgins).
- White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen hopes to learn about his future before leaving for a trip to Spain in early October, he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Guillen has a year left on his contract, so the White Sox don't necessarily have to follow that timeline.
- Scott Boras will have lunch with the Giants' Carlos Beltran today to determine the right fielder's free agency goals, he told the Associated Press yesterday at the Moneyball premiere.
- ESPN's Buster Olney tells stories of how Padres GM Randy Smith came to acquire Trevor Hoffman from the Marlins, and how the Yankees considered trading Mariano Rivera before they realized what they had.
Mets Rumors: Closer, Reyes, Wright
The Mets currently project for the 13th overall draft pick next June, same as this year. The latest on the club:
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson talked at length about closers yesterday, as usual leaving the door open for most possibilities. He explained to ESPN's Adam Rubin that the closer position "needs to be a point of concentration for us," and wouldn't rule out signing one of the big-name free agent closers. He added, "There are no concessions from me," implying he's not interested in signing a stopgap closer. On the other hand, a "cheap, proven veteran" is exactly the route Mike Puma of the New York Post expects Alderson to take after listening to the GM make the same comments. No matter what the Mets decide to do, it'll all be covered in detail at our @CloserNews Twitter feed and CloserNews.com.
- Alderson expects to know early on which direction the Jose Reyes situation is headed, he told Rubin. He won't count on an early resolution, but he admitted "everything will be contingent on how that turns out." Ruben Tejada appears to be Plan B for the Mets at shortstop, writes David Lennon of Newsday.
- Third baseman David Wright is showing greatly diminished range, a rival scout tells Andrew Keh of the New York Times.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Cuddyer
The Twins are all Michael Cuddyer has ever known. They drafted him ninth overall as a high school shortstop in 1997, and he reached the Majors in 2001. Cuddyer's Twins career has spanned 11 seasons and 1,130 games (plus 22 in the postseason) to date. He's mostly played right field, but has also logged innings at the infield corners and second base. Cuddyer's career batting line is .271/.343/.451, which is similar to his work this year.
Cuddyer has earned about $29MM in his career, most of which comes from a multiyear contract he signed in January of 2008. That became a four-year deal when the Twins exercised his $10.5MM option for 2011. 33 years old in March, Cuddyer is closer than he's ever been to free agency. The Twins held on to him at both trade deadlines this year, despite interest from the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Red Sox, and Angels. Cuddyer wants to stay, and the Twins reportedly floated a two-year, $16MM deal in August. Joe Christensen said talks didn't get beyond that trial balloon, and the player prefers to resume talks after the season. Cuddyer is represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, as our agency database shows.
In our latest Elias Rankings projections, Cuddyer profiles as a Type A free agent. The Twins clearly want him back, but offering arbitration would result in a salary north of this year's $10.75MM salary. My guess is that the Twins won't consider the draft picks worth the risk and will not offer arbitration if it gets to that point. Cuddyer figures to be a popular free agent target in a market light on offensive depth, and his value will only increase if he doesn't cost a draft pick. I think Cuddyer could find three years and $30MM on the open market, so the Twins might have to improve their offer to something in the three-year, $27MM range to get a deal done. He "might need some convincing" to re-sign, tweeted ESPN 1500's Phil Mackey yesterday. If talks with the Twins fall through, teams like the Red Sox, Athletics, Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants are speculative suitors.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.