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Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

By Tim Dierkes | September 19, 2011 at 7:34am CDT

The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Shawn Kelley
  • Second time: Jason Vargas    
  • Third time: David Aardsma, Luis Rodriguez
  • Fourth time: Brandon League

Aardsma and Rodriguez are the primary non-tender candidates.  Aardsma's salary in arbitration would remain close to $4.5MM and can't go below $3.6MM.  Since he had Tommy John surgery in July, that wouldn't be good value.  Rodriguez is a $700K type player, but he hasn't done anything noteworthy this year.  Kelley also projects for $700K.  Fully recovered from Tommy John, I think the Mariners will keep him around for 2012.

Vargas and League should each land in the $4.2-4.5MM range for 2012.  They're both trade candidates, especially League having saved 34 games and counting.

If Kelley, Vargas, and League are retained, that should add around $9.4MM to the team's commitments, bringing the total to about $69MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  That'd be about $26MM short of the 2011 payroll, so the team has flexibility.

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Arbitration Eligibles Seattle Mariners

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GM Candidate: John Coppolella

By Tim Dierkes | September 15, 2011 at 7:35am CDT

MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced the MLB executives who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces.

It's time to get acquainted with Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella.  John worked his way from the ground up in baseball, landing an unpaid internship with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in 1997.  By the time John graduated from Notre Dame he had an Angels internship in his pocket as well, and that led to a couple of positions with the Yankees.  John joined the Braves' front office five years ago and currently has a hand in player evaluations, acquisitions, and contracts.  

I recently exchanged emails with John covering a wide range of topics, many of which follow up on comments he made in a Baseball Prospectus chat last month.

Which people have served as mentors for you in baseball?

At the Yankees it was Brian Cashman, Mark Newman, Kim Ng, Damon Oppenheimer, Gordon Blakeley, and Billy Connors.  Damon taught me a lot about scouting and got me to spend less time on the computer and more time in the stands.  At the Braves it was and continues to be John Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Jim Fregosi, and Paul Snyder.  I consider John to be the best GM in the history of the game while Frank and Bruce are extremely bright and hard-working leaders who have helped me grow and provided me with opportunities.

How has your job description changed with the promotion to director of professional scouting?

Not at all.  Like Frank said it was more a case of having my title match my job description.  I still continue to lead our analytics department, statistical efforts, and arbitration research, but the most important work I do is with our scouts.  All of that work ties in with waivers, free agency signings, etc, and helps me assist Frank and Bruce in all facets of baseball operations.

You've called the current arbitration system "terrible."  Can you elaborate?

It’s a flawed system that leaves both parties unhappy.  I’ve done dozens of deals and don’t feel great about any of them, but I feel even worse about the process.  A couple of years ago Bruce and I were getting ready to pull two of our players out of big league spring training so we could fly them across the country to Phoenix in order for them to attend a hearing where they would hear us berate their performances in an effort to take money out of their pockets.  The cases got settled, but neither player is still in the Braves organization.

Assuming the current arbitration system stays in place, do you envision a day, perhaps five years from now, when advanced statistics will help one side win a hearing?

Arbitration is a complete crapshoot.  Either side – club or player – could make a compelling case and still lose based upon the whims of an arbitration panel that knows very little about baseball.

Do you have any ideas on changes that could eliminate the manuevering some teams do to prevent top prospects from getting Super Two status?

I don’t think a perfect system exists.  I would be lying if I said I didn’t think some clubs tried to prevent prospects from getting Super Two status, but I think it’s overstated.  Teams need to win games, otherwise the management team holding these players back will themselves be held accountable.  We all need to win and I know at the Braves we have never held somebody back because it might save us a few million dollars a few years down the line.

You recently mentioned Brooks Conrad, Jose Constanza, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristian Martinez as minor league signings/waiver claims of which you're most proud.  Can you elaborate?

All of these waiver claims and minor league signings make me proud because it shows the great work our scouts are doing for the Braves.  A week ago we closed out a doubleheader sweep of the Mets in New York with Cristhian Martinez, Eric O’Flaherty, and Anthony Varvaro, all three of whom were claimed off waivers.  Dom Chiti and Jeff Wren pushed hard for Martinez.  Fregosi and Dick Balderson pushed hard for O’Flaherty and Varvaro.  Tim Conroy pushed hard for Constanza.  All of us talk about these players and Frank makes the final decision, but we are all part of the process, and I feel like we have had more success in these markets than any other team in baseball.

You've mentioned how the next Cubs GM will be entering a challenging situation.  What would be your approach to fixing the club?  Do you think the Cubs should use 2012 as a rebuilding year, despite the size of their fan base?

I don’t feel comfortable commenting on how other clubs should approach the construction of their club.  Our focus at the Braves is on getting into the playoffs, advancing as far as possible, and putting together another great club for 2012.

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2011 GM Candidates Atlanta Braves

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Minor Moves: Buente, Hendrickson, Ward

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 1:58pm CDT

As I showed earlier today in my 10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year post, minor moves sometimes have a major impact.  Today's latest:

  • The Rays released right-handed reliever Jay Buente, tweets Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.  The move created a 40-man roster spot for Dan Johnson, whose contract was purchased.  Buente, who'd been claimed off waivers from the Marlins in May, found himself literally twice as hittable for the Rays' Triple-A affiliate as compared to his work in the Marlins' organization this year.  Topkin adds that recently designated pitchers Rob Delaney and Mike Ekstrom cleared waivers and the Rays are waiting to hear if they'll accept outright assignments.
  • The Orioles released lefty reliever Mark Hendrickson on Monday, according to the team's transactions page.  He'd been designated for assignment last Tuesday.   
  • The Diamondbacks released first baseman Daryle Ward, tweets Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.  The 36-year-old hit .318/.445/.471 in 110 plate appearances.  He last played in the Majors in '08 with the Cubs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Daryle Ward Jay Buente Mark Hendrickson

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10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 12:50pm CDT

Minor league deals are low-risk propositions for teams; the player must earn every inning or plate appearance.  Here are MLBTR's ten best minor league deals of 2011.

  1. Bartolo Colon, Yankees.  He didn't pitch at all in the Majors in 2010, but this year Colon has a 3.33 SIERA in 152 innings.  He's been a major cog in the Yankees' rotation.  Some of his success may be owed to offseason stem cell treatments, which Yankees GM Brian Cashman was not aware of at the time of the signing.
  2. Casey Kotchman, Rays.  Kotchman has positioned himself nicely for a Major League deal by hitting .313/.381/.432 in 506 plate appearances and assuming the Rays' regular first base job.  His OBP ranks eighth in the American League.
  3. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants.  The least likely All-Star of 2011, Vogelsong ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA in 162 1/3 innings.
  4. Freddy Garcia, Yankees.  Colon and Garcia have provided the Yankees 280 innings of 3.63 ball.  Baseball's biggest spenders got a ton of bang for their buck on minor league deals this year.
  5. Jesus Guzman, Padres.  Playing mostly first base for San Diego, Guzman has mashed to a .320/.377/.493 line, knocking in 42 runs in 247 plate appearances.
  6. Endy Chavez, Rangers.  Chavez hadn't appeared in the Majors since tearing his ACL in June of '09, but he's given the Rangers almost 500 innings in center field and a .291/.317/.430 line.
  7. Guillermo Mota, Giants.  Mota has provided the Giants 73 1/3 innings with a 3.12 SIERA.  He ranks seventh in baseball in relief innings.
  8. Jose Veras, Pirates.  With 67 2/3 innings and a 3.10 SIERA, Veras has been a great find for the Pirates' bullpen.  Plus, he's arbitration eligible.
  9. Reed Johnson, Cubs.  Johnson has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and hasn't shown much of a platoon split in crafting a .325/.361/.496 line in 246 plate appearances. 
  10. Jack Hannahan, Indians.  Hannahan's ability to play a capable third base and post a .330 OBP for the Tribe created a lot of value.

Honorable mentions: Dontrelle Willis (extra credit for offense), Jason Giambi, Laynce Nix, Greg Dobbs, Jose Constanza, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Miles, Eric Chavez, Kevin Millwood, Jerome Williams, Cory Wade, Tim Byrdak, Luis Ayala, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, Jason Isringhausen.

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Uncategorized

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Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 10:29am CDT

The Angels are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Jerome Williams
  • Second time: Kendrys Morales, Alberto Callaspo, Jeff Mathis
  • Third time: Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar

Mathis is a non-tender candidate, though the Angels retained him last year and his performance hasn't changed much.  His salary would be virtually the same, around $1.8MM.  Though it's only been 30 innings, Williams has done a nice job and would cost only $700K or so to retain.

The Angels' entire projected infield (aside from Mark Trumbo) is arbitration eligible.  Having missed all of 2011, Morales projects to stay at the same salary, $2.975MM.  We've got Kendrick for $5.1MM, Aybar for $4.5MM, and Callaspo for $3MM.  The middle infield tandem of Kendrick and Aybar will be entering their walk years.

If Mathis is cut loose, the Angels' five arbitration eligible players could cost $16.275MM.  Adding in players under contract for 2012, the team's commitments could total about $118MM not including minimum salary players.  The Angels' Opening Day payroll in 2011 was about $23MM above that point, so GM Tony Reagins should have flexibility this winter.   

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Arbitration Eligibles Los Angeles Angels

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Possible Type A Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 9:44am CDT

Our latest Elias Rankings projections are up, and 26 free agents are in line for Type A status:

Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Prince Fielder
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Madson
Yadier Molina
Darren Oliver
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Jonathan Papelbon
Brandon Phillips
Albert Pujols
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Rafael Soriano
Nick Swisher
Jose Valverde
Josh Willingham

In addition, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Infante, Adam Wainwright, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are near the Type A/B borderline.

The current list of 26 should shrink quite a bit. Options for Cano, Dempster, Farnsworth, Molina, Phillips, Soriano, Swisher, and Valverde are likely to take them off the free agent market.

Of the 18 remaining, not everyone will get an arbitration offer.  Beltran contractually can't be offered, and there's a chance players such as Bell and Hernandez won't receive offers.  It's likely that Capps, Cordero, Oswalt, and Rodriguez will not receive offers either.  That drops the pool to about 11 free agents who would carry the cost of a draft pick.  To sign a star like Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, or Sabathia, that's typically a minor factor.  For the others, it reduces their bargaining power a bit.

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Elias Rankings Update

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 8:32am CDT

After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Nearly all of the data is in; here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through September 11th, 2011.  Click here to view the rankings directly if you can't see them below.

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Uncategorized Elias Rankings

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Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Jocketty, LaHair

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2011 at 7:42am CDT

The Cubs currently project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft.  Once that is determined, things should get interesting on the North Side.  The latest:

  • The Reds will discuss the idea of signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez if he reaches free agency, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  I think signing Ramirez would really push the Reds' payroll to the limit, assuming they also pick up Brandon Phillips' club option.  The Cubs must decide between Ramirez's $16MM club option and a $2MM buyout within five days of the end of the World Series, so the team's new GM may not yet be in place.  After the Cubs decide, Ramirez has five days to make his choice on the option (declining would mean forfeiting the buyout).  Ramirez wants to stay, but he recently told ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine he desires a two or three-year deal. 
  • One scenario raised during informal discussions (presumably ones including owner Tom Ricketts) has the Cubs hiring current Reds GM Walt Jocketty, which could then lead to the team snaring Tony La Russa to manage and Albert Pujols to play first base, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Jocketty declined to comment, saying that he's happy in Cincinnati, but also lavished praise on the Cubs job and noted that the team extending farm director Oneri Fleita "shouldn't be" a hindrance.  Wittenmyer says the Cubs are gathering information on Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, Dan Evans, and Ned Colletti so far.  Ricketts has yet to ask permission to speak to any GM under contract, writes Levine.  In a chat conducted yesterday, Levine guessed Rick Hahn would be the next Cubs' GM.
  • Also in that chat, Levine wrote that Ricketts has identified the Cubs' primary need to be two or three starting pitchers.  The beat writer does not think the team will spend their money this offseason on position players.  He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range.
  • Numerous Japanese teams have been scouting and are prepared to make offers to Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair, reports Levine.  LaHair is intrigued but hopes to remain in the Majors.  The 28-year-old snagged Pacific Coast League MVP honors by hitting .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 plate appearances, and he's carried that success to the bigs in an eight-game stint.  Former Cubs first baseman Micah Hoffpauir went the Japan route a year ago, but is hitting .245/.325/.429 for the Nippon Ham Fighters this year.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Albert Pujols Aramis Ramirez Bryan LaHair Walt Jocketty

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Indians Designate Jason Rice For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 2:05pm CDT

The Indians announced today on Twitter that they've designated minor league reliever Jason Rice for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for reliever Zach Putnam.

Rice began the year in Boston's system and was traded to the Athletics for Conor Jackson on August 31st.  Then one week ago the Indians claimed him off waivers from the A's, and now he's been bumped off the Tribe's 40-man roster.

Rice, 25, posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.  He sits in the mid-90s with a hammer curveball, according to Red Sox vice president of player development and amateur scouting Mike Hazen. 

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions

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Quick Hits: McCutchen, Upton, Cameron

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 1:01pm CDT

15 years ago today, the Mariners' acquisition of third baseman Dave Hollins was completed when they sent a 20-year-old first baseman named David Ortiz Arias to the Twins.  Arias had just hit .322/.390/.511 for the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.  By the following year Ortiz had dropped the Arias in his name and earned a September call-up.  Ortiz posted a .266/.348/.461 line in 455 games spanning 1997-2002 with Minnesota, battling wrist and knee injuries.  After the '02 season the Blue Jays reportedly expressed interest in Ortiz, but ultimately the Twins non-tendered him in lieu of a raise from his $950K salary.  New Red Sox GM Theo Epstein signed Big Papi for $1.25MM, and the rest is history.  Today's links…

  • The Pirates are far apart in contract talks with Andrew McCutchen, reports ESPN's Jim Bowden.  Bowden feels that a six-year deal in the $47-49MM range, plus a club option, would be a fair compromise.  In my opinion, there's a good case to be made for a McCutchen contract to exceed the $51.25MM Justin Upton received over six years in March of 2010.  McCutchen has played in over 100 more games than Upton had at that point, their offensive lines are very similar, and McCutchen plays center field.
  • ESPN's Keith Law discusses MLB's European presence and what must be done for further growth.
  • Answering a question from Craig Heist of WTOP about playing in Washington, Rays center fielder B.J. Upton said he'd love to remain in Tampa Bay but otherwise would like to play for the Nationals with old friend Ryan Zimmerman.  You can follow Craig on Twitter here; MLB.com's Bill Ladson transcribed the discussion.  Upton is heading into his last arbitration year and projects for a $7MM salary.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo names 20 young, next generation GM candidates.  To check out MLBTR's top 20 plus honorable mentions, click here.
  • Mike Cameron was consistently one of the best players in baseball when he was on the field, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.
  • The Orioles will try Chris Davis at third base for the rest of the season, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  The 25-year-old was a key piece of the July 30th Koji Uehara trade with Texas.  With Mark Reynolds getting comfortable at first base, it's conceivable that the Orioles will sit out the corner infielder bidding this winter.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports chronicles how Joey Gathright went from being managed by Jose Canseco as a member of the independent league Yuma Scorpions to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Pittsburgh Pirates Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Andrew McCutchen B.J. Upton Chris Davis Joey Gathright

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