Unfortunate Type A Free Agents
Teams want their star free agents to be classified as Type As. For example, the Mets know there is no chance of Jose Reyes accepting an arbitration offer, nor will the loss of a draft pick have a big effect on his market. So, they can definitely expect two draft picks of some kind if he leaves. But for other, lesser free agents, Type A status is a problem for the team. For these guys it's understood by both sides that the loss of a pick will hurt their market, making the player more likely to accept an arbitration offer from their old team. If the team wants the picks but has no interest in retaining the player, offering arbitration is dangerous.
Looking at our latest Elias Rankings projections, the following non-star impending free agents are currently classified as Type A:
- Nick Swisher, Yankees: There's a pretty good chance the Yankees choose Swisher's $10.25MM option over his $1MM buyout. But if they decline the option in the name of moving on, Swisher could potentially accept an arbitration offer.
- Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles: If Vlad is a Type B, the Orioles have the chance of working out a handshake agreement for him to decline an arbitration offer, getting them a draft pick without hurting anyone. If he remains a Type A, the chance for a pick is gone.
- Josh Willingham, Athletics: If the A's offer arbitration, there's a good chance Willingham accepts.
- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: If the Red Sox decide to go in a different direction at closer, perhaps to save some money, will they get draft picks from Papelbon? He'd probably prefer the security of a multiyear deal, but accepting arbitration and getting a raise from $12MM might have some appeal.
- Jose Valverde, Tigers: The Tigers will probably just pick up his $9MM option, but if not, they have to risk him accepting arbitration if they offer.
- Matt Capps, Twins: This situation resembles Vlad's.
- Darren Oliver, Rangers: Having Oliver around next year wouldn't be such a bad thing, so the Rangers could offer arbitration and be OK with either result.
- Ramon Hernandez, Reds: I think the Reds are safe here and Hernandez would decline an arbitration offer in search of multiyear security and a guaranteed deal.
- Brandon Phillips, Reds: If the Reds decide to decline Phillips' $12MM club option, snag some picks, and move on, they'd have to consider the possibility of Phillips accepting arbitration and actually getting more than $12MM. I think the risk of the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins accepting arbitration is lower.
- Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: He's a quality pitcher, but if the Cardinals decline his $15MM club option, they won't necessarily get draft picks if he leaves.
- Heath Bell, Padres: Bell has publicly stated he'll accept arbitration if the Padres offer. So much for the idea of hanging on to him at the trade deadline because the Padres preferred the value of two draft picks to the offers they received. Owner Jeff Moorad said Bell accepting arbitration is preferable for the Padres in some ways, a statement that invites skepticism.
- Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers: The Brewers worked out a deal to eliminate K-Rod's vesting option. But with his high salary an arbitration offer is not advised, so they probably won't get picks for him.
- Others who are not currently Type A but could get there include Jason Kubel, Marco Scutaro, Chris Snyder, Raul Ibanez, Lance Berkman, Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Francisco Cordero, Javier Lopez, and Octavio Dotel.
Draft Reactions
If the owners have their way, we won't see the heavy over slot spending we did in yesterday's draft for a long time: ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that a draft slotting system is the top priority of MLB in the current labor talks. However, Olney's colleague Keith Law notes that the majority of scouts and directors he's spoken to are opposed to hard slotting. That's a major issue for the near future, but for now let's focus on yesterday's signings…
- Baseball America's John Manuel provides a nice summary of the major events of yesterday's deadline. He praises the big-spending Pirates, Royals, and Nationals, but expressed surprise at the dollar amounts the Nats committed to Brian Goodwin and Matt Purke. Manuel notes that other clubs must be surprised the Pirates managed to sign Josh Bell for $5MM. Overall, Manuel opines that baseball's August 15th deadline is not suppressing bonuses as intended, and should be moved earlier. He also advocates dropping the idea of a slotting system, trusting teams to evaluate and price talent.
- Law looks at Tyler Beede's decision to turn down Toronto's offer, and also examines strong drafts from the Cubs, Pirates, Nationals, and Padres. Like Manuel, Law questions Washington's Purke deal.
- Beede was one of six players not to sign within the first three rounds; BA's Jim Callis has details on the compensation picks the Jays, Padres, Yankees, Mariners, Marlins, and Rockies will receive next year.
- Law wrote that he's "surprised by how little [Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley] got relative to their talent levels." It may have had no bearing on the contracts of those two players, but I confirmed today that their agency BBI Sports Group is dealing with some turmoil, having recently fired Jeff Frye and another agent.
- Speaking of agencies, I've updated our database to include pretty much all major draft picks from this year.
- ESPN's Jim Bowden has an interesting article showing how the D'Backs, Padres, Rays, and Nationals re-allocated money from unsigned draft picks, and also discusses his Jeremy Sowers situation from '01 with the Reds.
D’Backs Designate Kevin Mulvey For Assignment
The Diamondbacks designated righty Kevin Mulvey for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for southpaw Wade Miley, tweeted the team. Jason Marquis was placed on the 15-day disabled list to open an active roster spot.
Mulvey, 26, posted a 6.98 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 80 innings for Arizona's Triple-A affiliate this year. He was acquired from the Twins in August of '09 for Jon Rauch. Mulvey came to the Twins from the Mets in February of '08 as part of the Johan Santana trade.
Blue Jays Designate Trever Miller For Assignment
The Blue Jays designated lefty Trever Miller for assignment, according to a team press release. The Jays placed Jon Rauch on the DL and purchased the contracts of Wil Ledezma and Rommie Lewis in the series of moves, leaving their 40-man roster at 39. Dan Mennella examined the fantasy consequences of the Jays' roster moves at CloserNews earlier today.
Miller, 38, tossed only 3 2/3 innings since coming over from the Cardinals in the Colby Rasmus trade. On the season he has a 4.19 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, and 38.8% groundball rate in 19 1/3 innings. He hasn't been able to shut down lefties since '09.
Twins Acquire Oliveros To Complete Young Trade
The Twins acquired righty reliever Lester Oliveros from the Tigers to complete yesterday's Delmon Young trade, announced the team. The Twins had until October 15th to choose the player to be named later, but they needed less than 24 hours. They also received lefty Cole Nelson in the deal.
Oliveros, 23, dominated at Double-A this year, earning a promotion to Triple-A in May and to the bigs in July. He was sent back to Triple-A later that month, but was demoted back to Double-A on Saturday. Baseball America ranked Oliveros 17th among Tigers prospects prior to the season, noting that he profiles as a middle reliever.
Young got off to a fine start for the Tigers yesterday, homering in his first plate appearance.
Unloading Carlos Zambrano
I would say the Cubs have no chance of unloading combustible righty Carlos Zambrano this offseason, but the Vernon Wells trade showed that even the game's worst contracts can be moved. The big difference there: Wells was coming off a solid 31 home run season and doesn't come with clubhouse baggage.
Cubs GM Jim Hendry has been through this once before, ditching a little bit of Milton Bradley's contract and actually getting some value out of Carlos Silva in 2010. There was no way the Cubs weren't going to dump Bradley that offseason, and it's possible their thinking is the same regarding Zambrano.
We don't need to run through Zambrano's history; suffice it to say that he has big-time negative trade value. Contract and attitude aside, Zambrano the 30-year-old pitcher still has some use at the back end of a rotation. He's consistently posted SIERAs in the 4.30 range, something for which plenty of teams pay around $4MM. However, teams signing the Kevin Correias of the world are hoping for innings, which Zambrano has not provided lately. And unlike most back-end starters signed on the free agent market, Zambrano has the potential to be a clubhouse distraction.
That's why Zambrano cleared waivers even before his latest incident: he has major negative trade value. He could only be dealt for a player the other team wants nothing to do with, and the Cubs would have to send money or take a bad contract to match up with his $18MM salary for 2012. Here are 11 trade ideas, assuming Z is willing to waive his no-trade clause without compensation.
- Zambrano and $12.5MM to Astros for Brandon Lyon. The reliever had bicep surgery in June and is out for the season. If the Astros are unsure about his 2012 outlook and would prefer to add Zambrano to the back end of their rotation without paying any additional money, this could work.
- Zambrano and $12.5MM to Blue Jays for Mark Teahen. The Cubs could attempt to use Teahen as a supersub next year. But to Toronto, does Zambrano offer any advantage to Teahen?
- Zambrano and $2MM to the Dodgers for Juan Uribe. If the Dodgers are having buyer's remorse on Uribe, this could be a way to wash their hands of the deal after 2012 instead of '13. But since Uribe still has some positive value, the Cubs would have to add a player or additional money.
- Zambrano to Giants for Barry Zito and $46MM. I'm putting this here because the idea is a favorite of many Cubs fans and was even tossed out there by ESPN's Buster Olney today. Let's think this through though, because it makes little sense for either side given the huge contract difference. The Cubs would exchange one year of a problem veteran pitcher for three? Releasing Zambrano would be simpler. From their point of view the Giants would have to send even more money to compensate for having to have Zito through '13. And on the Giants' side, would they really want to be free of Zito so badly that they'd send another team over $40MM to make him go away?
- Zambrano and $6MM to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. This, I can see, because the Giants might like to keep the money a wash and at least have the chance of getting some back-end innings out of Zambrano next year. If not, they could release him as they might Rowand. Plus, the years match up.
- Zambrano and $1MM to the Mariners for Chone Figgins. I can also picture this trade, as the money is very similar and Hendry and Jack Zduriencik swapped problems before. Figgins is under contract for an extra year, but the Cubs could release him if things don't work out.
- Zambrano to Orioles for Brian Roberts. Roberts is owed $2MM more than Z, but he may still have value if his concussion symptons go away. Plus, he was once a target of Hendry's. However, former Cubs exec Andy MacPhail isn't expected to be in charge of the O's this offseason, and in general Zambrano is just a headache compared to whatever Roberts might give them.
- Zambrano and $8MM to Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka. In the best case, Dice-K might be able to provide a couple of months of post-Tommy John innings next year, so maybe Boston would prefer to try Zambrano in some capacity instead.
- Zambrano to White Sox for Alex Rios and $20MM. The White Sox would reduce the years of their burden if not the money, while the Cubs could pray Rios bounces back next year or else cut him loose.
- Zambrano to White Sox for Adam Dunn and $26MM. The problem with both White Sox scenarios is that it's hard to see them sending so much money across town. Whereas from the Cubs' point of view, they'd probably just release Zambrano rather than increase the commitment. That said, Dunn makes sense for the Cubs at first base next year if the money is a wash.
- Zambrano to Yankees for A.J. Burnett and $15MM. $15MM would even out the money, but since Burnett probably has more value as a pitcher than Zambrano, the Yanks would probably either want to send a lot less or just keep the better pitcher. We could play this game with Rafael Soriano too, but the Yankees would need a bigger gain than just Zambrano and a financial wash.
- Bottom line: a few of these scenarios are feasible, with the best ones involving the least amount of money being sent and the Cubs getting a truly low-value player in return.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Orioles Designate Luis Lebron For Assignment
The Orioles designated minor league reliever Luis Lebron for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for newly-signed Dylan Bundy, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. As an advanced high school pitcher, Bundy signed a Major League deal yesterday and therefore required a 40-man spot.
Lebron, 26, missed the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery and returned to action in late July this year. Baseball America ranked him 21st among Orioles prospects prior to the season, as he's a "legitimate power arm out of the bullpen" if healthy.
Revisiting The Mike Napoli Trades
Typically when you take on most of one of the worst contracts in baseball, you don't have to give up anything of value. However, the Angels did just that by including catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli in their January trade with Toronto for outfielder Vernon Wells.
The Halos probably weren't keen on paying Napoli $5.8MM in 2011. They were never big on his work behind the plate, and at the time of the trade probably expected first baseman Kendrys Morales to be ready for Spring Training. The Angels were committed to Bobby Abreu and understandably wanted to move him to DH, another role Napoli can fill. Still, even at the time, it seemed plausible that the Angels would have found Napoli 400 plate appearances at his various spots. He'd hit 20+ home runs for three consecutive years, and it's surprising the Angels felt they could spare the power bat. Even if the Angels were dead set on acquiring Wells, I doubt Napoli was a requirement for the Blue Jays.
The Angels failed to get value for Napoli, but the Jays didn't consider him an ideal fit either. In theory, Napoli could have complemented Adam Lind at first base, backed up J.P. Arencibia behind the plate, and filled in at DH for Edwin Encarnacion or Juan Rivera when needed. Perhaps if the Blue Jays had found an immediate taker for Rivera, they would have kept Napoli.
Instead, Napoli was quickly sent to the Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco and less than $1MM in cash. The Rangers were perhaps the worst fit for Napoli of the three teams, as they had Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Treanor behind the plate, Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis as first base options, and Michael Young to DH and rove around the infield. Acquired as a bench player in January, Napoli has started all but nine of his 77 games to date with Texas (he missed almost a month with an oblique strain).
It's only been 285 plate appearances, but Napoli has flourished with the Rangers, hitting .290/.386/.592 with 19 home runs. His chance of being tendered a contract after the '11 season was once in doubt, but now seems like a lock. Depending on how many plate appearances he ends up with, a salary approaching $8MM for 2012 is possible for Napoli. Unlike the Angels and Blue Jays, the Rangers are happy to have him.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Pirates Break Draft Records
The Pirates spent $30.6MM on the 2008-10 drafts, more than any other team. This year they upped the ante, spending over $17MM on 24 players – the largest draft expenditure in baseball history. Yesterday, the Bucs inked first overall pick Gerrit Cole for a record $8MM bonus, and then surprised the industry by succeeding in signing second round pick/first round talent Josh Bell for $5MM. Bell, who had a strong commitment to the University of Texas, more than doubled the record for a player drafted outside of the first round. Both players are represented by Scott Boras, as our agency database shows. Today's Pirates draft links…
- Talking to Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, GM Neal Huntington explained the team's pursuit of Bell: "His family is obviously strong, they're intelligent and hard-working people, and we had nothing but respect for their perspective. We wanted the opportunity to explain who we were, how we do things, and we were hoping Josh was ready to take the step to professional baseball if we were to find a common financial ground, and we were able to do that."
- Cole can make more than $9MM in guaranteed money if he reaches the Majors by 2013, reports MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. Price has Huntington explaining that Cole's record minor league deal was the way to go: "There are times where a pure minor league contract and minor league signing bonus, paid out over nine months, is better than a major league contract paid out over five-plus years, depending on how the deals are structured."
- Just for good measure, the Pirates also set a ninth-round record by signing high school righty Clay Holmes for $1.2MM, according to Baseball America's Jim Callis. Holmes was one of many over slot deals for the Pirates.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through August 14th, 2011. Click here to view the rankings directly if you do not see them below.