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Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2022 at 11:57am CDT

The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains.  As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal.  The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s.  Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago.  Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

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Athletics Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Anthony Rizzo Anthony Volpe Freddie Freeman Matt Olson

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Giants Designate Caleb Baragar For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2022 at 11:17am CDT

The Giants designated lefty Caleb Baragar for assignment, according to MLB.com’s Maria Guardado among other reporters.  Baragar joins Hunter Harvey in DFA limbo as the Giants opened up 40-man roster spots for new signings Carlos Rodon and Jakob Junis.

Baragar, 28 in April, was drafted in the ninth round by the Giants back in 2016 out of Indiana University.  He’s tallied 45 1/3 innings across the 2020-21 seasons, posting a 2.78 ERA, 18.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, and 21.7 GB%.  He’s only faced 74 lefties in his brief big league career, but hasn’t handled them well with a 4.1 K-BB%.  Baragar had a particularly rough go of it in Triple-A in ’21, posting an 8.46 ERA while walking 17.6% of batters faced and allowing seven home runs in 22 1/3 innings.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Caleb Baragar

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Tigers Sign Drew Hutchison, Ramon Rosso To Minor League Deals

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2022 at 7:43am CDT

The Tigers have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with righty Drew Hutchison, announced the team.

Hutchison, 31, made nine appearances for the Tigers in 2021 in his first Major League action since 2018.  Hutchison had signed a minor league deal in February of last year.  He made a pair of starts for the Tigers in August and then spent September working in long relief.  Prior to that, Hutchison made 19 starts in Triple-A with a 23.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, and 41.2 GB%.

Hutchison made 32 starts in a solid sophomore season with the Blue Jays back in 2014, even garnering the club’s Opening Day start the following year.  He wasn’t able to stick in the Jays’ rotation in 2015, though, and was traded to the Pirates for Francisco Liriano at the 2016 deadline.  He was booted off the Pirates’ 40-man roster in September of ’17, electing free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Phillies the following February.  He made that team out of camp, but lost his 40-man spot by June.  He then moved to the Dodgers on a minor league deal, quickly opting out and signing with the Rangers.  Hutchison spent 2019 with the Yankees, Twins, and Angels’ Triple-A affiliates before resurfacing with the Tigers a year ago.

Detroit also signed reliever Ramon Rosso to a minors contract. The 25-year-old righty made seven appearances with the Phillies in each of the last two seasons. He owns a 6.11 ERA in 17 2/3 MLB innings but averaged 95.2 MPH on his fastball last year.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Drew Hutchison Ramon Rosso

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Nationals To Sign Sean Doolittle

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2022 at 7:40am CDT

The Nationals have reached an agreement with reliever Sean Doolittle, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post first reported the presence of Doolittle’s locker and contact between the two sides.  He notes the contract is a Major League deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (Twitter link) he’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM with an additional $2.1MM attainable in incentives.

Doolittle, 35, will return for a fifth season with the Nats after splitting the 2021 season between the Reds and the Mariners. The two-time All-Star saved 75 games and pitched to a 3.03 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 5.7% walk  rate with Washington through 142 2/3 innings after coming over from the A’s at the 2017 trade deadline.

The past two seasons haven’t been the best for Doolittle, who’s logged a combined 4.71 ERA through 57 1/3 innings during that time. However, after seeing his average fastball drop to a career-worst 90.9 mph in 2020, Doolittle rebounded to 93.3 mph in that regard in 2021 — including a 93.9 mph average late in the season after being claimed off waivers by the Mariners. Last year’s 12% swinging-strike rate and 33.6% opponents’ chase rate also marked bouncebacks, to an extent.

At his best, Doolittle has overpowered both left-handed and right-handed opponents, but he’s developed more of a platoon split in recent seasons. It was particularly pronounced in ’21, when lefties mustered just a .222/.276/.389 batting line but righties rocked him at a .288/.390/.510 pace. It’s unlikely he’ll bounce all the way back to his 2018 levels, when Doolittle was one of the best relievers on the planet, but even a return to his 2019 form would be a welcome addition to a threadbare Nationals bullpen that was lacking in stable contributors but has begun to add some veteran pieces.

Doolittle joins sidearming veteran Steve Cishek as the second experienced addition for the Nats in the past day. That pair will join Kyle Finnegan, Tanner Rainey and Will Harris in the late innings. Rainey is in need of a rebound himself, however, after pitching to a grisly 7.39 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021. Harris, meanwhile, missed time with a series of blood clots early in 2021 before undergoing thoracic outlet surgery on Memorial Day weekend last year, making him something of a question mark himself.

It’s been an active few days for a Nationals club that has begun to add some short-term veterans. The Nats tore down much of the roster at the 2021 trade deadline, dealing Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison, Brad Hand and Jon Lester in rare fire sale for GM Mike Rizzo. However, Rizzo pushed back against the idea of a lengthy rebuild in the days after the deadline and early in the offseason. The recent signings of Doolittle, Cishek, and particularly Nelson Cruz suggest that Rizzo & Co. will continue to add some veteran pieces to round out the 2022 roster.

If things break right and they get strong rebounds from key starters like Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, the Nats could be more competitive than many onlookers expect. If not, a series of short-term veteran additions will help to mentor some younger Nats before becoming trade fodder for a second straight deadline season.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Sean Doolittle

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Nationals Sign Aaron Sanchez To Minor League Deal

By Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2022 at 9:30pm CDT

March 15: In a subsequent tweet, Dougherty clarifies that Sanchez will make a base salary of $2MM, with a chance make a total of $3MM through performance bonuses.

March 13: The Nationals have signed righty Aaron Sanchez to a minor league deal, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.  Sanchez is represented by the Boras Corporation.  Dougherty notes that if Sanchez makes the Majors, he has a $2MM base salary and another potential $4MM in incentives.

Sanchez, 29, was a first-round draft pick of the Blue Jays back in 2010.  He hit a high point in 2016 at the age of 23, when he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the AL Cy Young voting.  Sanchez would be limited to just eight starts in 2017 due to a blister/split fingernail that required four separate IL stints. Further finger issues held him to 20 starts in 2018, culminating in season-ending surgery. Sanchez battled through similar issues in 2019, making 27 starts on the season but averaging fewer than five innings per turn. Sanchez was not able to replicate his previous success, posting a 5.45 ERA, lackluster 18.6 K%, and unfortunate 11.7 BB% across 2018-19.

By the 2019 trade deadline, the Blue Jays had seen enough, trading Sanchez to the Astros.  While it was thought that the Astros might work magic with Sanchez’s curveball, the righty quickly went down for shoulder surgery and was non-tendered after the 2019 season.

After missing the shortened 2020 season recovering from surgery, Sanchez re-emerged to sign a $4MM deal with the Giants in February 2021.  He hit the IL in May with right biceps tendinitis, getting further derailed with a blister.  Upon his return in late July, Sanchez was used out of the bullpen.  After three appearances, he was designated for assignment and then released.  At this point, Sanchez has tallied only 35 1/3 innings in the last two years.

If he’s healthy now, Sanchez could hardly find a better opportunity than at the back end of the Nationals’ rotation.  They’ve got Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, and Paolo Espino slated for the top four spots, with Sanchez likely to battle with another of today’s non-roster additions, Anibal Sanchez, for the fifth starter job, among others.  Strasburg is said to be healthy after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery last July.  News on Joe Ross was less encouraging, as the righty will be out six to eight weeks due to elbow surgery.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Aaron Sanchez

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White Sox To Sign Joe Kelly

By Tim Dierkes and Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 7:57pm CDT

7:57pm: Kelly’s deal also contains a club option for 2024, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.  The total value of the deal is $17MM in guaranteed money.

6:19pm: The White Sox have signed right-hander Joe Kelly to a two-year deal, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).  The signing will become official when Kelly passes a physical.  Kelly is represented by the ACES agency.

The White Sox are a somewhat surprising suitor for Kelly, having inked Kendall Graveman to a three-year, $24MM deal prior to the lockout.  They’re also on the hook for a combined $29MM in 2022 for Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel.  Aaron Bummer is under contract as well, and Garrett Crochet may also work out of the bullpen.  MLB.com’s Scott Merkin notes that the Kelly signing “could indicate a Kimbrel trade on the horizon, but White Sox are not just giving away Kimbrel.”

Kelly, 33, typically rates as one of the game’s hardest-throwing relievers, though every year more relievers are able to average 98 miles per hour as he does.  In his three years with the Dodgers, Kelly boosted his strikeout rate, hitting 27.5% in 44 innings in 2021.  In recent years, his control has generally fallen into the acceptable range of issuing free passes to 8% of batters.  Kelly also posted a healthy 58.9% groundball rate last year, helping him allow only three home runs on the season.

Kelly played a key role for the Red Sox in the 2018 postseason, allowing one earned run in 11 1/3 frames.  Kelly switched sides after helping the Red Sox beat the Dodgers in the World Series, as Los Angeles signed him to a three-year, $25MM deal with a club option for 2022.

Kelly put up an unspectacular 2019 season for the Dodgers.  He memorably earned a five-game suspension in the shortened 2020 season, also spending time on the shelf with shoulder inflammation before again helping his club win the World Series, though with not the same impact as he had for Boston.  Kelly quietly underwent shoulder surgery that offseason, leading to a May 7 season debut in ’21.  Kelly went on the COVID-IL in August of ’21, and later saw his season come to a close as he exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness.

Faced with a $12MM club option or a $4MM buyout, the Dodgers chose the buyout.  Though Kelly suggested mutual interest in a Dodgers reunion last month, he’ll instead join the White Sox bullpen.  Kelly ranked seventh in the Dodgers’ bullpen in leverage index in 2021.  Among those ranked ahead of him (used in more crucial situations), Kenley Jansen remains a free agent and Corey Knebel has signed with the Phillies.  Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, and Brusdar Graterol are holdovers, with Daniel Hudson joining as a free agent prior to the lockout.  Tommy Kahnle is expected to pay some dividends after signing a two-year deal in December 2020 less than five months after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Kelly told 570 LA Sports at that time that he would “definitely be ready for the start of the season” after his NLCS biceps injury.  The White Sox, widely expected to trade Kimbrel, have thus far only added a pair of right-handed relievers to their bullpen.  Right around the same time tonight, the White Sox also bolstered their infield with the signing of Josh Harrison.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Transactions Joe Kelly

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Rockies Sign Jose Iglesias

By Tim Dierkes and Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 6:19pm CDT

The Rockies have signed shortstop Jose Iglesias to a one-year contract, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  Univision’s Mike Rodriguez tweeted earlier tonight that Iglesias and the Rox were close to reaching a deal, and later noted that Iglesias will earn $5MM.  Iglesias is represented by MVP Sports Group.

As Nick Groke of The Athletic notes, the Rockies signing Iglesias to play shortstop means “the door is shut on the Trevor Story era.”  Story picked up the mantle as Colorado’s regular shortstop from Troy Tulowitzki in 2016, finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting and garnering MVP votes in each of the 2018-20 seasons.  The Rockies extended the $18.4MM qualifying offer to Story in November, and he remains a free agent.  The Iglesias signing also solidifies former third overall draft pick Brendan Rodgers as the team’s second baseman.

Iglesias, 32, has played for the Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, Orioles, and Angels in his 10-year MLB career.  Iglesias signed with the Red Sox as a slick-fielding shortstop out of Cuba back in 2009.  On his way to a second place Rookie of the Year finish in 2013, Iglesias was traded to the Tigers in a three-team deal at the July deadline.  Stress fractures in both of his legs kept him out for the entire 2014 season, but Iglesias went on to make his lone All-Star Game in 2015 and served as the Tigers’ shortstop for four seasons.

Iglesias joined the Reds on a surprising minor league deal in late February of 2019, ultimately serving as the club’s starter at shortstop.   He joined the Orioles as a free agent in January 2020, posting an uncharacteristic 160 wRC+ in 150 plate appearances.  That led Baltimore to pick up Iglesias’ $3.5MM club option for 2021, though they traded him to the Angels for a pair of minor leaguers a month later.  Iglesias took the bulk of the Angels’ innings at shortstop in 2021, yet was released in September.  He came home to the Red Sox on a big league deal and hit well in his brief time there, though he was ineligible for the club’s postseason roster.

With a career 87 wRC+ at the plate, defense is Iglesias’ calling card.  His Statcast Outs Above Average metrics dating back to 2016 have generally been above average.  Iglesias’ Defensive Runs Saved metrics have been erratic, and he struggled in Ultimate Zone Rating in ’21.

Iglesias has endured what you might call a lack of respect from the game in the most recent years of his solid career, from the minor league deal with the Reds to the release by the Angels.  Nonetheless, he’s served as his team’s primary shortstop in every season dating back to 2015, and just signed the largest contract of his big league career since coming over from Cuba.  The post-lockout free agent market has quickly provided homes for the few non-star free agent players who tallied 500+ innings at shortstop in 2021, with the Cubs signing Andrelton Simmons to a $4MM deal yesterday and the Astros adding Niko Goodrum on a $2.1MM pact today.  Story and Carlos Correa, with much higher expected price tags and qualifying offers attached, have yet to sign.

For the Rockies, Iglesias will help bridge the gap to their top shortstop prospect, 20-year-old Ezequiel Tovar.  Baseball America ranked the Venezuelan ninth among Rockies prospects, explaining, “Tovar still has several years of growth ahead of him, but he’s talented enough defensively to eventually be the Rockies’ starting shortstop.”  Having gone with an affordable light-hitting veteran option for 2022 in Iglesias, the Rockies figure to fill their stated goal of adding offense via the outfield.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Jose Iglesias

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Rockies Sign Scott Schebler To Minors Deal

By Tim Dierkes and Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 6:12pm CDT

The Rockies have signed outfielder Scott Schebler to a minor league deal, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  Schebler will receive an invitation to Colorado’s big league spring camp.

Schebler, 31, has seen his MLB time dwindle since popping 30 home runs for the 2017 Reds.  He remained a solid contributor in the club’s 2018 outfield despite battling through multiple IL stints.  Schebler opened 2019 as the Reds’ starting center fielder, but was optioned to Triple-A by May.  He didn’t end up returning to the show that year, and was eventually designated for assignment in July 2020.  He was shipped to the Braves in a trade, but quickly bumped off Atlanta’s 40-man roster as well.

After signing an offseason minor league deal with the Angels, Schebler had his contract selected in mid-April of 2021.  He spent the season going on and off the Angels’ 40-man roster, picking up only 34 big league plate appearances.  In 285 Triple-A plate appearances, Schebler posted a 70 wRC+.

A 26th round pick by the Dodgers back in 2010 out of Des Moines Area Community College in Boone, Iowa, nothing has been handed to Schebler in his seven-year Major League career.  He showed legitimate pop in his time with the Reds before injuries hit, and he’ll look to earn playing time in a currently-unsettled Rockies outfield where Connor Joe, Sam Hilliard, and Raimel Tapia are projected as starters.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Scott Schebler

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MLB Owners Ratify CBA; Transactions Officially Unfrozen

By Tim Dierkes | March 10, 2022 at 5:28pm CDT

5:28pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the owners unanimously voted to ratify the new CBA. After 99 days, the lockout and accompanying transactions freeze have officially been lifted.

3:47pm: MLB owners are expected to ratify the new collective bargaining agreement at 6:00pm eastern/5:00pm central time tonight, according to Andy Martino of SNY.  Transactions are set to unfreeze immediately thereafter, meaning teams will again be able to sign free agents and make trades.  Upon locking out the players on December 2, MLB also instituted a transaction freeze, which ended up lasting 99 excruciating days.

We’re expecting an unprecedented level of MLB hot stove action crammed into a 28-day period, with Opening Day set for April 7.  Hundreds of free agents are still without jobs, including 20 of MLBTR’s top 50 of the offseason.  Click here to review the best remaining free agents, led by Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki.  Check out the full free agent list here.  To review which free agents signed prior to the lockout, click here.  My ballpark estimate is that around 60 free agents will sign MLB deals between now and Opening Day.  Old qualifying offer rules remain in place for this group of free agents, meaning that if new teams sign Correa, Freeman, Story, Castellanos, and Conforto, they’ll be subject to draft pick forfeiture.

Several factors will affect exactly how aggressive teams are in pursuing free agents.  One is how many executives bent the rules and communicated with agents during the lockout, potentially laying groundwork for instant agreements.

Another is the new competitive balance tax thresholds.  The base tax threshold will rise from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM this year, a 9.5% increase.  By 2026, the base tax threshold will reach $244MM.  There are three additional tax tiers beyond the base threshold at $20MM increments, the last of which is a new addition with this CBA.  In 2021, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded the base tax threshold, but five other teams came within $3.4MM of it.  The teams that prefer to treat the base tax threshold as a soft salary cap now have an additional $20MM to play with in 2022.

It’s also worth considering the new anti-tanking measures agreed to by MLB and the players.  They’ll be instituting a draft lottery for the first six picks, and also penalties for landing near the bottom of the standings multiple years in a row (we’ll explore that fully later).  In theory, rebuilding clubs could become a little more active in the market.

An additional major CBA change that may affect free agency is the move from 10 to 12-team playoffs.  The bar for entry into the playoffs has been lowered.  That could push a fringe contender to acquire players.  On the flip side, a team projecting itself for 90+ wins may feel certain additions are now unnecessary with fewer wins required to make the playoffs.

The universal DH is also part of the mix, with bat-first free agents like Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, and Jorge Soler now becoming more palatable for National League teams.

Trading was minimal prior to the lockout, so expect a burst of activity in that area as well.  MLBTR covered the 14 likeliest trade candidates, impact players with a chance to move, and 27 more regulars with a plausible chance of being traded.  The Athletics, Reds, and Mets figure to be in the thick of many trade discussions.  Again, it’s possible executives were conducting covert trade talks during the lockout, but we don’t know for sure.  What we do know: we’re excited to switch from lockout coverage to free agency and trades.  Thanks for hanging in there with us.

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MLBTR Originals

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Latest Collective Bargaining Positions For MLB, Players Association

By Tim Dierkes | March 10, 2022 at 10:00am CDT

Updated 3-10-22

With proposals going back and forth, it can be difficult to keep track of where each side stands in collective bargaining between MLB and the Players Association.  We’ll keep this post updated so you can use it as a reference.

Last Proposal From MLB: 3-10-22

Last Proposal From MLBPA: 3-9-22

Next Up: MLBPA reviewing counteroffer from MLB.  MLB included 3pm EST deadline

Here’s where each side stands on the key issues, as far as we know.

Minimum Salary

  • MLB: $700K in 2022 / $715K in 2023 / $730K in 2024 / $750K in 2025 / $780K in 2026
  • MLBPA: $710K in 2022 increasing to $780K in 2026
  • Current gap: $10K in 2022, dropping to zero gap in 2026

Competitive Balance Tax

  • MLB: Base tax thresholds at $230MM in 2022 / $232MM in 2023 / $236MM in 2024 / $240MM in 2025 / $244MM in 2026.  Pre-arbitration pool of $1.66MM per team would presumably count against the CBT.  Also seeking to add a new, fourth surcharge level to the CBT, with an unknown tax rate.  For example, MLB’s tiers for 2022 would be at $230MM, $250MM, $270MM, and $290MM with tax rates on the overages presumably increasing at each level.  Unclear whether tax rates increase for repeat offenders, as in the previous CBA.
  • MLBPA: $232MM in 2022 / $235MM in 2023 / $240MM in 2024 / $245MM in 2025 / $250MM in 2026.
  • Current gap: $2MM in 2022, growing to $6MM in 2026.  There also may be debate over what forms of spending count toward the CBT.

Draft Pick Compensation

The two sides have agreed that if an international draft agreement is reached by 7-25-22, the qualifying offer system and the associated draft-pick compensation will be eliminated. If the two sides do not reach a deal on the international draft by the deadline, the qualifying offer system will remain in place.

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

  • MLB: $50MM pool with no increases throughout the CBA
  • MLBPA: $65MM pool, assumed to include $5MM annual increases throughout the CBA
  • Current gap: $15MM in 2022, growing to $35MM by 2026

Arbitration Eligibility

Super Two is expected to remain at the top 22% of 2+ players.

Service Time Manipulation

  • MLB: Offering three draft picks within the player’s first three years if he finishes well in awards voting.  A player finishing first or second in Rookie of the Year voting would receive a full year of service time.
  • MLBPA: Players receive a full year of service time in their rookie season if infielders, catchers, and designated hitters finish among the top five for their position in WAR in each league, with outfielders, relief pitchers and starting pitchers finishing among the top 15, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.  “The union also said it would accept a modification of MLB’s proposal that would reward draft pick compensation to teams whose players finish among the top three in the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young voting.” (per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale on 2-1-22)

Anti-Tanking Measures

  • MLB: Lottery for top six picks.  According to Evan Drellich, “Small markets can pick in draft lottery for two straight years before sliding to 10th pick. Large markets can pick only one year in lottery before going to 10th.”
  • MLBPA: Lottery for top six picks.  All teams that did not qualify for the postseason in the preceding season would be part of this lottery.  So in a 12-team playoff field, 18 teams would have a chance at the #1 pick.  In the MLBPA’s proposal, the odds for the #1 overall pick would be as follows:
    • Team 1: 15% (the team with the worst record in baseball)
    • Team 2: 15% (the team with the second-worst record in baseball)
    • Team 3: 15%
    • Team 4: 12.5%
    • Team 5: 10%
    • Team 6: 8%
    • Team 7: 6.5%
    • Team 8: 5%
    • Team 9: 3.25%
    • Team 10: 2.25%
    • Team 11: 1.5%
    • Team 12: 1.25%
    • Team 13: 1.12%
    • Team 14: 1%
    • Team 15: 0.88%
    • Team 16: 0.75%
    • Team 17: 0.625%
    • Team 18: 0.375%

These odds would be adjusted as each of the first seven picks are given out via this lottery system.  After those seven lottery picks are assigned, the remaining non-playoff teams would be assigned picks in the reverse order of winning percentage.

The MLBPA is also proposing competitiveness adjustments.  Revenue sharing payors that finish in the bottom eight in winning percentage in each of the two previous seasons or in the bottom 12 in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th.  Additionally, any team that does not receive revenue sharing that finishes in the bottom 12 in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.

Also, beginning with the 2024 draft, any revenue sharing recipient finishing in the bottom eight in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th.  Any such club in the bottom eight in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.

Revenue Sharing

The two sides have agreed to move the Oakland Athletics back to a revenue sharing recipient.  It seems the MLBPA still has requests with regard to revenue sharing.

Expanded Playoffs

  • MLB: 12-team playoffs
  • MLBPA: 12-team playoffs

On-Uniform Advertising

The two sides have agreed to uniform patches and helmet decals.

International Draft

The two parties have set a July 25 deadline to determine the specifics of an international draft that would go into effect beginning in 2024. If a deal on the draft is reached by that point, the qualifying offer system and the associated draft-pick compensation will be eliminated. If the two sides do not reach a deal on the draft, the qualifying offer system will remain in place and the current international amateur free-agent structure will remain in place.  Possible details of MLB’s international draft plan can be found here and here, but specifics will remain subject to negotiation up until the deadline.

Amateur Draft

The size of the amateur draft pools remains unsettled, among other related issues.

Minor League Options

The two sides have agreed to limit the number of times a player can be optioned to the minors in one season to five.

Rule Changes

  • MLB: Seeking ability to implement any on-field rule changes 45 days after formally proposing them to players.  MLB seeks a pitch clock, bigger bases, and the elimination of the shift for the 2023 season.
  • MLBPA:  “Would grant MLB ability to implement 3 specific on-field changes w/45-day notice, starting w/2023 season: pitch clock, larger bases, shift restriction,” according to Evan Drellich.

Universal Designated Hitter

This seems to be generally agreed upon by both sides.

MLBPA’s 2018 Grievance

In February 2018, the MLBPA filed a grievance against the A’s, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays for failing to comply with the rules for spending revenue sharing money.  MLB wants this grievance dropped.

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Collective Bargaining Agreement

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