The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement brought about a November flurry of free agent signings well beyond anything we’ve seen before. We published our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list on November 8th, and at this point 20 players from that list remain unsigned. Let’s take a look at who will still be out there when the lockout ends.
1. Carlos Correa. The Rangers committed $500MM to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Tigers signed Javier Baez. The Tigers doubling up on one of the big five free agent shortstops should, in theory, be a good thing for Correa. As our top free agent of the winter, we still believe Correa’s agent will find a way to get his client paid. However, if teams like the Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Phillies truly won’t get near Correa’s assumed asking price (north of Seager’s $325MM), he lacks a contending big market team in need of a shortstop.
3. Freddie Freeman. Most observers still consider the Braves the favorite for Freeman. Last week, I ran through potential matches if the Braves can’t get it done. MLBTR readers saw the Yankees and Dodgers as clear favorites in that case. For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with that.
4. Kris Bryant. Hours prior to the expiration of the CBA, Jon Heyman mentioned that the Mets, Angels, and Padres had shown interest in Bryant, while the Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros are among the other teams who have “checked in.” Bryant’s expected market prior to the lockout remains mostly intact, but the Rangers have committed $561.2MM to free agents and the Mets are in for $254.5MM. That probably decreased the willingness of those teams to go big on Bryant.
8. Trevor Story. Story could serve as the more affordable alternative to Correa, with Baez’s six-year, $140MM deal likely serving as a benchmark. Story doesn’t have an obvious shortstop-needy team with $100MM+ burning a hole in its pocket, however.
10. Nick Castellanos. Castellanos was one of the top available bats at the opening of free agency, and he figures to be easier for a new team to sign than Freeman. Still, Castellanos is a player with some wide error bars on contract predictions. MLBTR said $115MM over five years, but outlets like ESPN and FanGraphs were at three years and $54-63MM.
15. Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber is a player who works against Castellanos, in that he’s a year younger and didn’t receive a qualifying offer. He had a similar 2021 season to Castellanos, albeit with less volume.
18. Carlos Rodon. We felt that second half health concerns would limit Rodon to one to three years, and we still feel that way. If that’s correct, his market could be robust given the increasing aversion among teams to long-term contracts. The chance to get a potential ace on a short-term deal is what made Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so appealing.
20. Seiya Suzuki. When the lockout ends, Suzuki will have 20 days left to sign with an MLB team. As Brad Lefton of the New York Times pointed out in late November, “Spring training in Japan starts Feb. 1, roughly three weeks earlier than the current MLB schedule. Beyond players with health issues, latecomers are almost unheard-of in Japan. If Suzuki has any thoughts of returning to the Carp, he would probably want to do that with the rest of the group on Feb. 1.” If we don’t see progress on the MLB lockout this month, it’s possible Suzuki will play another year in Japan rather than wait around in limbo.
21. Anthony Rizzo. It’s possible Rizzo would like to see what happens with Freeman to get clarity on his own market, but Rizzo will require a much more modest contract. He could find a home with a team that won’t be considering Freeman. Rizzo and his wife have moved out of their longtime Chicago apartment, but if he signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.
25. Jorge Soler. Soler’s market hasn’t been altered much by the signings that have taken place. He’ll be rooting for the National League designated hitter.
29. Kenley Jansen. Most of the top right-handed relievers are off the board, like Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Mark Melancon, and Corey Knebel. But contenders can almost always supplement the bullpen, so Jansen should be fine. The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres are the ten teams who have spent at least $7MM on a reliever so far.
32. Michael Conforto. We’ve only seen four major outfield signings so far in Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, Avisail Garcia, and Mark Canha. We generally didn’t expect Conforto to re-sign with the Mets anyway, so his market is largely unaffected.
33. Clayton Kershaw. In a recent MLBTR poll, 81.8% of readers predicted Kershaw would sign with the Dodgers or Rangers or retire. Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of the lefty, who turns 34 in March. Kershaw received a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon in October.
34. Yusei Kikuchi. One of four starting pitchers remaining from our Top 50 list, Kikuchi is only 30 years old and comes without health concerns. Despite a 4.41 ERA on the season, the lefty has upside and should be a popular post-lockout target.
40. Zack Greinke. Greinke, 38, seems in line for a one-year deal if he decides to continue playing.
41. Eddie Rosario. Rosario seemed like a decent match for the Marlins, who signed Avisail Garcia for $53MM. Otherwise, his market should be mostly intact.
43. Jonathan Villar. Leury Garcia signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal to stay with the White Sox as their jack-of-all-trades utility guy. Villar generally doesn’t play outfield, but he’s otherwise comparable and may still find a two-year deal.
45. Ryan Tepera. Tepera is a solid right-handed setup type. Hector Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal could be a comparable on the high end. Tepera may be easier to sign than Jansen, as Tepera doesn’t have any attachment to serving in a closer’s role.
47. Nelson Cruz. Like Soler, Cruz will be well-served by a universal DH.
48. Danny Duffy. Last month, Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he “plans to start a throwing program in March and intends to be ready to pitch by June.” The 33-year-old southpaw will make for an intriguing one or two-year addition.
Honorable mentions: Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Johnny Cueto, Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly, Andrew McCutchen, Collin McHugh, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Michael Pineda
I still think Bryant ends up in Texas.
Playing OF? I doubt they’ll block Josh Jung.
It’s crazy how much Castellanos is asking for. 8 years? He’s ranked 10th and he’s asking for more than Story is expected to get at 8th or even Bryant at 4th. He might be one of those guys who has to wait a long time to sign after scaring teams off with his demands.
I think Conforto is going to have to wait awhile, too. He should have just accepted the QO. After last season teams are going to be reluctant to give him a multi-year deal. At the same time I think they will be reluctant to give up the draft compensation to have him on a 1-year deal.
After he was so disappointing last season I’m surprised how eager he was to decline the QO. He was one of the first to decline. He turned down the QO about a week before Correa or Freeman turned theirs down. What was the point of that? It almost seems like he was trying to make a statement.
I think Castellanos will sign later than expected for much less. Conforto might be in the same situation as Keuchel and Kimbrel were a few years ago when they had to wait until mid-season so the Cubs and Braves didn’t have to give up any draft compensation to get them. Conforto didn’t look like he was worth $18 million last year at all. He should have been glad to accept the contract so he could prove himself and hit the market again next year.
Conforto will do just fine, way more than 1/$18.
I can’t find a single report of Castellanos asking for 10 years. MLBTR themselves reported him asking for 7 or 8 years.
mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-castellanos-rumors…
You have a link so I can see his insane request as well?
Agreed @ Castellanos. If you’re looking for a bat, Schwarber seems like much better value. But, you know, your agent is free to ask for any number, doesn’t mean you’ll get it though.
Conforto overpriced himself, especially coming off a subpar season. He should have taken the QO, then have a better year, then have more suitors next fall. I think his grandiose expectations are going to disappoint him.
@ Please, Hammer. Don’t hurt ’em.;
The Castellanos contract demands are a joke.
He ran up great offensive numbers playing in a bandbox park. Playing the small OF there hid (some) how terrible a defender he is – and how that hurts his team when playing games.
Franchises are getting smarter. All the analytics show that only the top 3-5% of players are worth the top 3-5% of salaries. Franchises are moving towards what the Rays, Brewers, Guardians and others do, not what the Yankees did.
Castellanos and his agents might find a desperate owner / FO – but the number of those people are dwindling each year as they learn their lesson. His most recent employer learned a big, big lesson.
–
Conforto is an nice guy. A better all around player than Castellanos. But hardly an impact player. Develop a decent corner OF from your farm system and pay him for 5 years while spotting him in situations he can produce well in. Cost you 25% less at most.
Look, I agree with much of what you’re saying but its not like the Reda suffered due to Castellanos. He hD a terrific offensive season, and with the DH coming to the NL, he will do just fine. 7-8 years? No, but I can easily see 4-5 @ 23MM per.
@ rememberthecoop;
I’m not saying the Reds suffered – what I am saying is that Mr. Castellanos is not among the top 3-5% of players in MLB.
Will he get multiple years at an AAV of ” 23MM per”? Yes. There’s surely a team out there that will do that. And in the later years of that contract they’ll eat some of it to trade him the the Rays, Brewers, Guardians, Giants or someone else that will use him productively (lots of players whose names we don’t know today will be floating about MLB then and playing better for less money).
Conforto’s “hardly an impact player”??? Dude has a 124 career wRC+. These are some of the players around that level in 2021: Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley, Justin Turner, Sal Perez. And that’s Conforto’s CAREER numbers. He’s one of the better, more consistent hitters in the game.
@juiced
Schwarber was non-tendered just one year ago. One good partial year and everyone forgets that bat you get could be the one from 2020. I am amazed as how he can be compared to some one who has been as solid a hitter as Castellanos. Their only similarity is both are bad fielders.
@Salary Cap Myth: You misunderstood me. I said Castellanos was asking for 8 years not 10 years. I said he was 10th on the free agent list. I pointed out he was 10th on the list because Story is 8th and Bryant is 4th but they are both expected to get less than Castellanos is asking for. It’s likely to scare teams off of Castellanos and not even start negotiations if that’s what his starting point is going to be. They are just going to wait Castellanos market out until his demands lower. This has happened with some Boras clients before after the asked for really high demands.
@seamaholic 2: I think Conforto will make more than $18 million total but not that high of an AAV. He is coming off a season where he wasn’t an impact player at all. It’s going to hurt his market. If you are right and he turns it around next season, Conforto would have been better off taking the one year $18 million AAV and then hitting the market again after he actually had a good season. He would have made more money that way. Not only would he be coming off a better season but he wouldn’t have the draft compensation attached to his signing. Not many owners want to give up a ton of money and high draft picks to get a player who is coming off a bad season. If he repeats what he did last season the GM of that team would look really stupid for sacrificing payroll and future talent for a guy who already showed he wasn’t great anymore the season before. Conforto was the perfect candidate for a pillow contract. Now, if Conforto does well next season he will have left a lot of money on the table by signing his multi-year deal after a down season. If Conforto doesn’t do well the team will look stupid for giving him the type of money you expect plus draft picks. If Conforto really is going to bounce back like you say then he should wait one year so his bounce back happens before he hits the market. Conforto in 2021 just didn’t look like an $18 million player. Much less with draft compensation attached.
Schwarber isn’t nearly as bad of a fielder a Castellanos though.
It’s hard to believe any OF could play worse defense than Schwarber, who single-handedly convinced me that Joe Maddon was not a genius.
if he [Rizzo] signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.
Many in Chicago know that he turned down a 5/$70M extension because he thought it was an insult. So if he signs somewhere for 2/$30M, that’s on him. He made it clear that he didn’t want to stay with the Cubs. No love lost here as a Cubs fan,
I think there’s something to that. But if he were to sign with the Brewers for 2/30 and the Cubs never made an offer this winter, I think that would generally be poorly-received in Chicago.
Fair point. I appreciate what Rizzo has done for Chicago, especially in pediatric cancer area but not looking to have him back on the Cubs. Out of the three traded at deadline, I would only want Bryant back. Though I am hoping he signs with the M’s.
Are you sure it wasn’t an insult, at least at the time of the offer? After all, up until recently, Rizzo was one of baseballs three best 1B’s.
But he’s clearly in decline. May have more to do with his bad back than age. Still, 2020 & 2021 were not good offensive seasons for Riz, and even his defense has taken a hit.
You don’t offer him a 5 year contract for what he’s doing in the past or at that time, you are looking at what you think he’ll contribute over those years. With his bad back, it wasn’t terribly unlikely that he’d see some regression as he moves into his 30s. If he was insulted by that, that’s on him.
Can’t speak for all, but I know I wouldn’t care. As mentioned, they made him an offer, he didn’t like it. Time to move on. I’ll still root for Rizzo wherever he goes, but I don’t care if they bring him back at all.
He made his decision at a time when he thought he could get more. He bet on himself having a better year. That decision in the past has nothing to do with his decision in the future. If the Cubs want him back, it’s up to them to make an offer. If they don’t, that’s on them.
I could see Rizzo signing cheaper to go too a winning team. Should Atlanta loose on Freeman without a doubt Rizzo could be a possible fill with a team that should be a play off favorite
Yup, and I’d bet that’s exactly what will happen.
Rizzo is a 1B entering his age 32 season. He has limited power for that position, a chronic bad back and who is stymied by the shift. His numbers project to be the epitome of average for a starting 1B. If we expect salary dollars per unit of WAR in this market to be about $10 mill for sub2.0 WAR players, then he will be LUCKY to get 2 years at $30 million. A team might get a great deal if he reverses his decline of the past few seasons, but I wouldn’t sign him for anything near what he is asking.
C Murphy… I don’t get your hard feelings for Rizzo? He was a total pro on and off the field and the Cubs never get that ring without him. Yes, he turned down that extension, but never made any public statement dissing the Cubs about it. He may have been wanting to wait and see what the market might bring. Yes, in hindsight, that was an offer he may not beat, but man, Rizzo is a class act will always be a guy this Cub fan will root for.
I see Kris Bryant signing a one year deal with the Brewers. The Brewers will over pay similar to the deal they gave Grandall
The Brewers already project to have their highest payroll ever. I don’t think Bryant is in the cards for them.
Bryant has no reason to sign a 1 year deal anywhere. He had a good bounce back season and will capitalize on that and the no qualifying offer to land a 6+ year deal.
26 HR, .850 OPS, 5+ WAR for a catcher was worth $16M/1Yr. imo. Grandal’s HR off Scherzer in the 2019 WC was big time (until the crew blew it in the 8th)
Tepera back to White Sox.
Can never have too much pitching.
“can never have too much pitching” so that means the Sox will attempt to sign Matt Harvey???
He didn’t even make Honorable Mention!
There’s just no way you have Kikuchi one spot below Kershaw.
I’d imagine it is a reflection of Kershaw’s health at the end of the season. His elbow might be in pretty bad shape. There’s probably also something to be said for his limited market, nobody seems to think he’ll sign with anybody other than the Dodgers or the Rangers.
There’s a sneaking suspicion Kershaw will likely need Tommy John surgery, like Verlander. That and his chronic back issues, don’t make him a prime signing IMO.
If he pitched in the Koufax Era, he’d probably be done.
A sneaking suspicion from who, exactly? And what’s the point of talking about him as if he was playing in the game sixty years ago? I don’t get that reference at all, since he, like, isn’t.
We predicted one year and $20MM for Kershaw and two years/$20MM for Kikuchi. I actually think now that Kikuchi will do better than that. I don’t know what to think with Kershaw, a lot depends on his health and what he wants.
I’m forever seeing diagnoses from our resident sports medicine experts about how Kershaw really needs TJ, despite the obvious fact that if he actually required surgery on his elbow, putting it off makes no sense. So the logic of the situation tells us what the Dodgers have been saying about his condition is actually true. As for what he wants, it’s difficult to imagine one of the most storied players in Dodger history wants to end his time with the Dodgers in the way his last appearance ended. He’s got a lot more pride in his work than that, and the Dodgers by not extending him a QO haven’t actually made it easier for him to go elsewhere. Add it all up, and the mystery is a lot less deep than is being advertised.
What’s your source on those sports medicine experts because I am not find any of that about Kershaw.
dodgerblue.com/dodgers-injuries-clayton-kershaw-no…
Resident. Meaning, here.
If Cohen still wants to spend $$, they can sign Bryant, let him play 3b this year than RF next year and beyond, with Canha becoming the 4th OF next year and Baty or Vientos taken over 3b next year. Than sign Kikuchi as the Mets Lefty SP deGrom,Scherzer,Kikuchi,Carrasco and Walker with Megill and Peterson as backup SP’s until needed they go in the bullpen and sign Chafin and maybe Kelly for the bullpen.
Or instead of signing Bryant and Kikuchi make a trade with the A’s for Chapman and Manaea for maybe Smith,Davis,Lee,Szapucki and a lower prospect, this gives the Mets a 3b this year with power and a lefty SP, it gives the A’s an inexpensive 1b,3b or DH, a CF, a lefty SP or reliever plus $$ relief from Chapman and Manaea’s contracts.
No way the A’s do that trade
Just in $$ relief they should , plus Dom Smith is a very good 1b, Davis playing FT DH or 3b will give them 25-30 hrs and they get a cheap CF and pitcher.
We discussed this yesterday. A team shouldn’t be allowed to downgrade itself without a goal in gaining future assets just to save money. Yes, this trade saves them money but it makes them worse without any real prospect return. MLB would be right to void such a trade, it’s a downgrade in every way. Well, at least it is better than what you proposed yesterday in that it doesn’t also include Olsen. Shedding salary is one thing but a trade has to somehow seek to improve a team either now or later.
Owners making the max money in the here and now, isn’t that their goal??
Probably not.
Agreed, but I wonder if the Commish has the gonads to do a void like you’re suggesting.
Without getting in to anyone needing to void anything…some team will offer the A’s more than that for those players.
Yea that’s true. I was just posing a hypothetical to a hypothetical.
no
That trade IS NOT happening, exactly! It would need to be like the RedSox offering Casas to the A’s for Olson, plus including some other players.
I like the idea of the Mets getting Manaea. More upside than Kikuchi in my opinion, but I think it’s a good idea to have a lefty in the rotation no matter what. I like what Chapman offers but I love Bryant’s versatility
I don’t really get the fascination with Bryant’s supposed versatility. He loses a good bit of value if he’s not an everyday third baseman and corner outfielders/first baseman aren’t really hard to come by. As a third baseman he’s a star. As a right fielder he’s merely very good and would likely be overpaid. Does his ability as a third baseman to back up the corners really add that much value to him?
I would add another point… a DH in the NL makes Bryant’s versatility less valuable.
KB is not a “star” even as a 3rd baseman because his defense @ the hot corner is below average. His offense is ok but even that is not quite star level IMO. Of course, terms like that are subjective.
Yea, I think that’s a fair assessment. He’s a bit over-hyped, for sure.
Yeah I agree. I still want him for the Jays but not at the salary listed. Maybe 5 years and 120 Mil.
I would pass at anything more than that.
Cosmo’s right. They simply aren’t going to make this trade PURELY to save money. Imagine if this actually worked, don’t you think every team would offer something like this? Every team has these kinds of players they can trade. Besides, there’s 29 other teams if this really was the Mets offer. They could get real future talent AND save money by simply getting prospects.
The Athletics also would rather get younger rather than acquire another teams aging veterans. Lastly, Cohen has already said he doesn’t want to trade from his farm because of how shallow it is, right now. Honestly, him saying that should make every Mets fan excited. He knows the farm needs development and so he’s working to take care of that.
@jvent
So you believe that 1) Oakland will package Chapman and Manaea, but won’t be retooling/rebuilding. Or 2) players like Smith and Davis are exactly what rebuilding teams are looking for, or 3) while players like Smith, Davis and McNeil aren’t good enough for the Mets, any team should be willing to give up top talent for them. If you want to trade one of Smith or Davis to Oakland to be their Dh, I’m sure they might part with Treveno for the bullpen, maybe.
Interesting conundrum for Suzuki.
Not really. 20 days to sign a contract is not a big deal. When the right team and right offer comes along those things can be done in a few hours. In fact he probably already has a few in his back pocket so he knows he won’t be left high and dry.
If they’re not looking to break the bank, I think Greinke makes sense for the back end of the Giants rotation. Seems like they get the most out of their SPs
Yep. I got Greinke/Giants and I’m determined I’ve got that one right at least. Makes so much sense on so many levels.
Tim, if you don’t agree with LAD/NYY being the non-ATL faves for Freeman – who is/are your pick(s)?
Like a lot of commentators, he probably believes there’s no chance Freddie goes anywhere but Atlanta. I think he’s’ wrong on that. Braves are famous for refusing to exceed their internal cost-benefit analysis, corporate-style, and for hating long contracts for guys in their 30’s because of an aggressive take on aging curves. It looks like they aren’t going past a certain line with him.
Yeah it would be hard for AA to go past 5 years after working with Beeston in TO. There doesn’t seem to be a fit in Atlanta for Freeman under those circumstances. You have to think with your head not your heart. Especially for a team with a smaller room for error. Never say never I guess.
I like the Mariners, Rangers, Padres, and Giants more, and possibly the Rockies as well.
I just have a hard time seeing the Dodgers or Yankees doing a 6/180 deal with Freeman through age 37.
I do consider the Braves the favorite, but I am not a “no chance he goes anywhere else” person. I’m like 60% Braves, 40% the field.
I don’t see the Rockies as possibility as I don’t think freeman would want go there. The padres would be over the luxury tax and still have Hosmer.
I believe the real chances of places to go are either Atlanta; Angels; blue jays or dodgers
With my pick being the dodgers as they will need to show a big signing to sell tickets etc
Rockies just signed their 1B. Not that you let CJ Cron block Freddie Freeman, but CJ’s not chopped liver (he was their best hitter last year) and the team has other way more serious needs.
I can’t see LAD feeling the pressure to add marquee players going past where they’re comfortable – especially guys outside the organization and not extending guys like Seager (though the contract differences are large). Even without Kershaw/Seager, they should still be considered the favorites to be in the NLCS, until they aren’t there.
I could see LAA, more so, ante up for a marquee name, though that’s still a stretch, imho. I’d love to see Freeman play for the Canadian team – if not with ATL, but not sure at the expense of moving Vlad Jr. around.
@ben. This is still Freddie Freeman’s team (Braves). If the Braves let him walk I see them losing lots of paying fans. I still think a deal gets done and if he was really going elsewhere it would’ve happened pre lockout. I definitely don’t see Freeman going to a team like the Rockies that will probably struggle to be .500 team even with Freddie. Freddie will probably go with the Braves and a chance to repeat.
Serious fans always overestimate how much casual fans care who’s on their teams. Losing Freeman won’t cost them a dime in attendance.
@Tim. Why are you picking the Rockies over the Dodgers? That seems looney. The Dodgers haven’t been shy about big contracts. Kershaw is off the books, for the moment anyway.
Also, what you may not know is that Freeman expresses considerable relief to not be rebuilding anymore. I doubt he is eager to go right back into one. Even more so, perhaps you aren’t considering the negative impact the Rockies recent behavior with players like Arenado might have been on Freeman. Maybe also with Story. I could see a player like Freeman who won’t have a shortage of options preferring not to go to the Rockies because of all the internal conflict.
While I agree that he probably doesn’t sign with Denver, I don’t think it has anything to do with Arenado. Sure, he was clearly pissed that they weren’t trying hard enough to win; but keep in mind that they did sign him to a huge payday. In the end, money talks. I still believe the Braves will re-sign Freeman, but if not, money & terms will matter most. As they almost always do.
And they traded him, on request, to a team he wanted to play on, which features one of his best friends in baseball (Goldschmidt). I don’t think players look at the Arenado situation as being a big slap in the face to Arenado. I think they see it more as Arenado being a prima donna.
Don’t sleep on the Rockies’ “checking in” on Bryant. They have loads of payroll space, needs at both COF and 3B (if they trade McMahon, which I think they might), a long-standing interest in KB dating from his draft when they were one slot behind the Cubs, and both KB and his wife are mountain west types, born and raised in Vegas. They also have a history of overpaying for guys when their owner really wants them.
Rodon 1yr/$18 million Angels. Book it.
The Angels need a big arm, and it makes total sense, but when do the Angels ever do the smart thing???
I think he signs with the Tigers. 2/$40 (second-year player option).
I don’t think Avila will sign any pitcher with the history of injuries that Rodon has. He has already paid many an IL pitcher in FA. Urena mostly stayed off the IL, but that’s been it. ERod is risky enough. Greinke is a safer bet and could be influential to their young arms.
Rodon 1yr 25 Mil Jays. Book it! ( in pencil)
Jonathan Villar IS NOT Leury Garcia.
Well that seems fairly obvious.
Besides the top free agents, there’s still a lot of offensive pop out there. Between Castellanos, Schwarber, Cruz, Rizzo, Soler, and Conforto, some teams will be adding nicely to their run production.
Castellanos and Schwarber will be more expensive, but the others (with obvious risk factors, of course) will all probably sign short contracts and/or not demand that high of an AAV.
Perhaps Anthony Rizzo will land in Seattle, which is unlikely to agree to the long, six-figure contracts Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman will command.
Rizzo and the retired Kyle Seager have nearly idential WAR totals over their 11-year MLB careers. The lefthanded bat of Rizzo, who is 21 months younger than Seager, could provide the Mariners needed help in on-base percetage.
A Rizzo signing would require that Ty France move to third base despite his stellar defense at first the past season. Rizzo, a four-time Gold Glover, would be a more-than-adequate defensive replacement.
Rizzo, is not Freddie Freeman. I cannot see them moving Ty France to 3B for Rizzo after the public commitments Dipoto made to have Ty play 1B next season. For Freeman I think people would understand. I think the M’s would hand the job to Toro instead.
Indeed Anthony Rizzo is not Freddie Freeman.
Hence the difference between the projected three-year, $45 million and six-year, $180 million contracts for lefthand-hitting first basemen born 35 days apart.
Rizzo has posted 36.8 bWAR and 31.8 fWAR in 1,406 career games while Freeman has posted 43.1 bWAR and 42.2 fWAR in 1,565 games.
And let’s not forget that Rizzo struck out Freeman last April:
youtube.com/watch?v=paaFLpJg79o
😉
@ muskie73;
Most team FO’s are not thinking of paying those 2 players based on what they did, but (and I know this is borders on the absurd) I would guess that most FO’s are looking at what those 2 gentlemen will do in the years they’re being paid for……and not just the next year or so.
I’m with the Rays, Brewers, Guardians, Giants and others – they can get multiple players over the course of the contracts those 2 will receive; and with the help from their coaching staffs those players will outperform Rizzo and Freeman for less than half the money.
😉
But Rizzo is trending in the wrong direction. It seems the shift and his back have limited his offensive production. And as I mentioned before, even his normally plus defense at 1B wasn’t there in 2021. He could be a rebound candidate but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The trends are reflected in the projected contracts for Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.
Each carries risks whether buying high on Freeman or buying low on Rizzo.
Schwarber, Joe Kelly and Greinke to the Lou.
Seiya Suzuki is 100% going to be signed by some MLB team. Staying in Japan for a fraction of the paycheck should not be an option for him. There is a good chance he has already worked out the terms of the deal with the Mariners or some other team of his choice. He had 10 days. The teams that are interested have probably already sent him their offers.
Rodon is an “Ace”?
LOL
He had a great half-season after 6 years of some ups and downs….and the up’s weren’t that high nor did they last that long.
We’re grouping him with 2 future HOF’ers – Scherzer and Verlander? I know Boras can find the most desperate owner’s / FO head’s and pit them against one another, but even the Yankees have learned that throwing away money on multi year contracts limits their flexibility to a point that then have to bring in a player that a last place team will pay the salary of just so they can open up a roster spot.
I believe the operative word there was “potential.”
@ BlueSkies_LA;
LOL
OK
Let’s put this in perspective….
Had the Sox extended a QO to Rondon and he’d have taken it, he would have been making what the top 3 players on their team are. And without him, the Sox are already at or near their max historical payroll, with some player raises to come. If Rondon turns out to be anything short of a “Ace” in 2022, the Sox would have been in big trouble (they already are as the Kimbrel trade was the worst I’ve seen since the Pirates traded for Archer).
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More perspective on dumping $20m-plus AAV for multiple years on a “potential” Ace….
I understand you’re a Dodger fan, and of course they run outrageous payrolls. Most MLB teams can’t afford that. Were Rondon to sign a multi-years contract at the salary Mr. Boras thinks he should receive, Rodon would be within the top 3 highest players on more than half the teams in MLB. Does his track record and current physical condition sound like a good match for a franchise taking on that sort of salary?
I would think that most teams would be willing to give one year with a far lower base salary and bring him up to a higher salary if he hits numerous performance benchmarks – starting with innings pitched. If Boras insists on a multi-year contract I would make the 2nd year a team option…..no opt out for the player – the team has taken a big risk and should be rewarded if it works out.
Then again, there’s always a desperate owner / FO head out there – which is how the Sox got Kimbel. While I’m sure most think this is hyperbole, that trade set back their rebuild / contention quite a bit. One more bad move like that (or bad break) and they’re going to get passed up – long term – by some combination of Cleveland, KC, and Detroit.
The point being I read the entire sentence and consequently got the entire thought being expressed. None of this has anything to do with the Dodgers or the White Sox, what Boras says, or anyone else for that matter.
No.
Reread what was written. Rodon was grouped in with Scherzer and Verlander. And because of it everything I wrote is salient as it brought perspective into the situation – something that is seldom done on this site.
Reading is hard.
Apparently so. It’s kind of distressing to those of us who write for a living to know that no matter what we write and no matter how clearly we state what we mean, many readers will still see only what they want to see.
Tepera back to Toronto makes a lot of sense.
Rockies did a major disservice to Story. If he’d been traded, it would’ve given him an opportunity to prove himself out of Coors. Rockies could’ve received good prospects more valuable than a QO pick
Danny Duffy, Trevor Rosenthal, Brad Miller and maybe either Tyler Anderson or Joe Kelly to the Mets. …For love of God, please not another year of Familia.
That’s 4 forty man roster spots. Duffy is back in June, Anderson, Rosenthal and Kelly fill up the bullpen needs. Miller is the super utility.
I know rumors have tied Bryant to the Mets, but I’m thinking Story makes more $$ sense. He could slide to 2nd or 3rd and be great insurance at SS.
At least it would be a pitcher you were Familia with.
Bryant should be a Jay. If I was the Jays!, I pounced on him as soon as the lock downs is lifted!
Kikuchi should be a very interesting option as well to add depth to the rotation.
If I was the Jays I would try to get Bo and Story to work out short and third. I’m not loving Bryant’s recent defense. (love the bat) It might work out better with Bo at second and Espinal at third so throws make it to Vladdy.
I’ll say the Jays end up with Bryant 3B/OF-1B (perfect fit), Kikuchi SP and Suzuki OF, while trading top prospects Pearson/Groshans to the A’s for 1 of Montas/Manaea/Bassit and Olson.
It can be done. All a letter of $ and coming to term with the A’s for the other prospects.
You are supposed to do lists like these from bottom to top, c’mon man!
Would still like to see the Cards take a flier on Greinke. The current rotation is relying on too much “hope.”