Our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list has been published after many hours of discussion and debate. Readers grilled Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams about it for 90 minutes in a live chat today, and you can read the transcript here.
St. Louis Cardinals Job Opening
From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.
Summary of Responsibilities:
The role of the Senior Cloud Engineer will be to design, develop, and maintain cloud infrastructure for the baseball data systems of the St. Louis Cardinals. This person will collaborate with the Baseball Systems group to ensure that quality data and analytics are accessible in a timely fashion to front office members, scouts, coaches, players, and others in Baseball Operations. This person should be detail-oriented, enjoy sharing expertise with others, keep up with the latest cloud tools and technologies, and have an interest in the game of baseball.
Job Location: St. Louis (Preferred) or Remote
Education and Experience Required:
- Bachelor’s degree in computer science or a related field, or a combination of relevant education and work experience
- Ability to implement, validate, and maintain software in a cloud environment including:
- Strong proficiency in at least one modern programming language (Python preferred) and application design patterns
- Debugging, performance tuning, and cost optimization
- Systems monitoring and reliability
- Unit testing and test automation
- Experience with cloud architecture principles such as:
- Distributed and event-driven computing
- Memory management
- Scaling up and down systems
- Serverless architectures
- Experience with cloud data management including:
- Databases (Relational, NoSQL, Columnar) and data warehousing
- ETL processes and pipeline automation
- Cloud storage
- Experience with establishing, promoting and ensuring best practices
Education and Experience Preferred:
- 3-5+ years of experience with cloud infrastructure (preferably Google Cloud Platform (GCP))
- Experience with baseball data
- Experience with data analytics
- Experience with cloud infrastructure management such as:
- Infrastructure as code
- Docker and Kubernetes
- Version control
- CI/CD
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents. It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more. We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins
These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.
All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees
These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.
Minnesota Twins Job Openings
From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.
The Minnesota Twins are currently accepting applications for the following positions:
Colorado Rockies Analyst Job Openings
From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.
POSITION TITLE: Analyst
DEPARTMENT: Baseball Research & Development
REPORTS TO: Director, Baseball Research & Development
APPLY TO: baseballjobs@rockies.com, TeamWorks
STATUS: Exempt
POSITION SUMMARY:
The Colorado Rockies Organization is seeking an individual with a passion for baseball and data analysis to join our growing Baseball Research & Development team. This person will focus on performing data analysis to support decision making in all facets of baseball, including player evaluation, roster construction, player development, advance scouting, and in-game strategy.
ESSENTIAL DUTIES & RESPONSIBILITIES:
- Develop statistical models and perform general quantitative analysis to support all areas of baseball operations and organizational decision making.
- Design and build informative data visualizations for use in automated reports or ad hoc projects.
- Effectively present completed projects and communicate new insights to decision makers and other staff.
- Maintain a knowledge of the latest data analysis techniques and data sources to aid in the continual development of the department.
- This job description is not intended to be a comprehensive list of duties and responsibilities required by the employee.
- The responsibilities required by the employee may change over time and without notice.
JOB QUALIFICATIONS/JOB SPECIFICATIONS:
EDUCATION AND WORK EXPERIENCE
- Advanced degree or equivalent experience in statistics, data science, computer science, machine learning or a related field.
- Experience with analyzing datasets and training statistical models using R or Python.
- Experience working with SQL-like databases, such as MySQL, SQL Server or PostgreSQL.
- Experience collaborating on code with the use of source control, such as Git.
RELEVANT SKILLS
- Familiarity with the rules of baseball and an understanding of sabermetrics strongly desirable.
- Passion for baseball and familiarity with current baseball research.
- Ability to communicate effectively, both in writing and orally.
- Strong intellectual curiosity.
- Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships.
WORKING CONDITIONS/WORK SCHEDULE
- Ability to work a flexible schedule with long hours, including weekend, evenings, and holidays.
- Some travel will be required.
- Consistent, punctual and regular attendance.
APPLICATION PROCESS
Qualified candidates should submit their resume and letter of interest no later than October, 18th, 2021.
———————————————————————————————————————————————
POSITION TITLE: Baseball Operations Analyst
DEPARTMENT: Baseball Operations
APPLY TO: baseballjobs@rockies.com, TeamWorks
STATUS: Exempt
POSITION SUMMARY:
The Colorado Rockies Organization is seeking a full-time Baseball Operations Analyst within the Baseball Operations Department. This individual will join the Baseball Operations team and will support Operations and Analysis initiatives within the department. Within Operations, they will assist in salary arbitration, administration of rosters, understand and apply industry rules and regulations, administrative duties, and ad-hoc projects. Within Analysis, they will assist in research pertaining to contract markets, baseball economics, statistical analysis, on-field strategy, and ad-hoc. In addition, they will interact with Major League Staff, Players, and Front Office to implement and operationalize organizational initiatives. The position requires a strong work ethic, attention to detail, willingness to learn, ability to communicate technical concepts to non-technical stakeholders, creatively problem solve, work within cross-functional teams, and have a passion for baseball.
DUTIES & RESPONSIBILITIES
OPERATIONS
- Assist in daily administrative duties of Baseball Operations department.
- Utilize MLB and proprietary Rockies’ software systems to assist in roster management and report building.
- Support salary arbitration process.
- Interpret and apply Major League Baseball rules and regulations.
- Complete ad-hoc projects and implement initiatives as directed by Front Office and Major League staff.
- Improve department efficiency and effectiveness of operational processes.
ANALYSIS
- Work autonomously or within a team to support contract markets, baseball economics, analysis, on-field strategy, and ad-hoc research projects.
- Partner with Research and Development team to develop robust analytics and actionable insights to enable key business decisions.
- Conduct, distill, and present research projects.
JOB REQUIREMENTS
Education and Work Experience
- Bachelor’s degree or equivalent (preferably in an analytical field or related experience)
RELEVANT SKILLS
- Proficiency with Excel and PowerPoint and willingness to learn new products. Experience with SQL is a plus.
- Ability to solve complex problems and develop creative solutions with high attention to detail.
- Comfortable working with large data sets to develop actionable insights.
- Ability to work under deadlines with competing priorities in a fast-paced and sometimes ambiguous environment.
- Experience operating within cross-functional teams and ability to influence without authority.
- Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
- Passion for baseball.
WORK ENVIRONMENT
- Ability to work a flexible schedule including long hours, weekends, evenings, and holidays.
- Some travel may be required.
- Consistent, punctual and regular attendance.
APPLICATION PROCESS
Qualified candidates should submit their resume and letter of interest no later than October, 18th, 2021.
Write For MLB Trade Rumors
We’re looking to add to the MLBTR writing team, in a part-time position that pays hourly. The criteria:
- Strong weekday availability.
- Exceptional knowledge of all 30 baseball teams, no discernible bias. Knowledge of hot stove concepts like arbitration, draft pick compensation for free agents, and the competitive balance tax.
- A high school degree is required, and further education is preferred. Please include your highest completed level of education in your application.
- Writing experience is necessary, and online writing experience is preferred.
- Attention to detail and ability to follow the MLBTR style and tone.
- Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news quickly and concisely.
- Ability to use Twitter, Tweetdeck, and WordPress.
- The job may include opportunities for supporting research and social media tasks.
- If you’re interested, email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and explain how you stand out and qualify in a couple of short paragraphs. Please attach your resume to the email. We often receive several hundred applications, so unfortunately we will not be able to reply to each one.
At the end of your application, please fill in the blank: After the ____ season ends, assuming the CBA remains unchanged in this regard and he does not sign a contract extension or go to the minors, Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds will become a free agent. Rather than give an explanation, simply write, “Reynolds question: [Year]” at the end.
2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
Much has changed since our last installment of these rankings back on June 10th. Six players signed extensions in lieu of free agency, none beyond Lance Lynn’s two-year, $38MM deal with the White Sox. Trevor Bauer has been removed from the rankings, as he remains on paid administrative leave after being accused of sexual assault.
Four players who might have been considered for qualifying offers were traded in July: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Starling Marte. Those players are now ineligible for qualifying offers. Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and AJ Pollock are among those who are ineligible on account of having received one previously. The Rockies inexplicably retained Trevor Story at the trade deadline, so he will be subject to a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, these power rankings are based on my projection of the players’ earning power. Keep in mind that the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, though that doesn’t necessarily mean free agency will be frozen.
1. Carlos Correa. Prior to this year, Correa had played 110+ games in a season with a 120 wRC+ exactly once, back in 2016. This year, Correa has avoided the regular injured list and is fourth among qualified shortstops with a 136 wRC+. Correa did go on the COVID-19 IL in July, but he missed only a week.
Just 27 years old in December, Correa also has youth on his side, and appears headed toward a monster free agent contract. The $340MM deals of fellow shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor will surely be a target.
2. Corey Seager. After getting hit by a pitch and suffering a broken right hand in mid-May, Seager missed two and a half months. Upon his return July 30th, the Dodgers had acquired another of the game’s top shortstops in Trea Turner. Turner has switched to second base as a member of the Dodgers, but serves as a strong option at shortstop for 2022 for L.A. Seager didn’t have much to say on the topic, but clearly his negotiating leverage took a hit with the Turner acquisition.
As for what Seager can control, he’s shown no ill effects from the broken hand. He’s got a stellar 134 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances since returning from the injury. Seager is only about five months older than Correa, so he too will be seeking a very long contract in excess of $300MM.
3. Kris Bryant. 19 games into his Giants career, Bryant’s solid season has continued. The Giants have enjoyed his versatility, playing Bryant at third base as well as all three outfield positions. He’s saying all the right things about the possibility of staying in San Francisco long-term, telling Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, “It’s definitely enticing.” Even with a new deal for Brandon Crawford, the Giants have less than $36MM on the books for 2022, so they could certainly afford Bryant.
4. Trevor Story. Though Story expressed confusion at the Rockies’ decision not to trade him, he hasn’t let it affect him on the field. Since the trade deadline, Story sports a 147 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances. 29 in November, Story isn’t quite as young as Correa and Seager, but he’s still in good shape for a contract well beyond $100MM. There’s still a case to be made for Story above Bryant, and the Rockies’ shortstop has outplayed Bryant since June.
5. Freddie Freeman. Freeman has turned it on since June, posting a 151 wRC+ in 324 plate appearances. 32 in September, Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball. The Braves wisely held onto the 2020 NL MVP despite a 12% chance at the playoffs at the trade deadline, and now the club has a 77% chance according to FanGraphs. Braves fans continue to wonder why the club hasn’t hammered out a deal with their perennial All-Star.
6. Kevin Gausman. Gausman has scuffled as of late, with a 5.17 ERA and 10.6% walk rate in his last seven starts. However, he remains the prize pitcher of the free agent class, and he has seven regular season starts plus the playoffs to cement his free agent bona fides. Dating back to 2020, Gausman has a 2.94 ERA and and 30.4% strikeout rate in 205 2/3 innings for the Giants.
7. Marcus Semien. Semien joins this list for the first time, as he’s putting together his second MVP-caliber season within three years. Maybe his 53-game 2020 season was the fluke, and Semien really is one of the best players in the game. 31 in September, he’s a candidate for at least a strong five-year deal in free agency. Semien has played mostly second base this year in deference to Bo Bichette, but as a free agent he’ll be a consideration at both middle infield positions. Semien’s 5.2 WAR is only bested among position players by the incomparable Shohei Ohtani.
8. Marcus Stroman. Stroman, 30, ranks seventh among qualified NL starters with a 2.84 ERA in 145 1/3 innings. He succeeds on the strength of his home run prevention and solid control and is a candidate for a five-year deal. Stroman has shown no rust after opting out of the 2020 season.
9. Robbie Ray. Ray, with an identical WAR to Stroman at the moment, presents an interesting contrast. Ray’s 30.7% strikeout rate ranks second in the AL, coupled with a career-best 6.4 BB%. It’s truly shocking to see Ray with such a low walk rate, as he had baseball’s worst walk rate – by far – last year among those with at least 50 innings. He ranked the second-worst in that regard in 2019. While Toronto’s $8MM deal for Ray has turned into a masterstroke, the lefty will be very difficult to value as a 30-year-old free agent.
10. Nick Castellanos. With a 146 wRC+, Castellanos has been the seventh-best hitter in the NL this year. He sports a solid 121 mark since returning from a microfracture in his right wrist on August 5th. Castellanos, 30 in March, has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract with the Reds after the season. He’ll almost certainly do that, and reject a qualifying offer from the Reds as well.
Honorable mentions
Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte
Scherzer and Rodon in particular just missed making my top 10. Even at age 37, Scherzer could land a three-year deal in the $100MM range. But he could also seek something just above two years and $72MM, which would result in a new record for average annual value. Rodon is having a season for the ages after being non-tendered by the White Sox and then returning on a $3MM deal. However, he’s currently on the IL for shoulder fatigue, and even at age 29 he’ll be hard-pressed to find a five-year deal given his health history. Taylor, the Dodgers’ super-utility man, has a 133 wRC+ since the start of 2020 and will likely surprise many with the size of his next contract. Still, it figures to fall short of $100MM.
Even With No CBA, MLB Transactions Can Happen
When baseball’s seventh collective bargaining agreement expired on December 31, 1993, there was no fanfare. Murray Chass of the New York Times dropped it in this way, writing, “If negotiations for a new labor agreement ever begin — the old one expired uneventfully at midnight Friday — the owners will try to put salary arbitration in a time capsule and bury it deep underground, leaving it to be discovered by someone seeking the reason for the decline and fall of the business of baseball.” The expiration of the old agreement was basically an aside in Chass’ article about the owners’ desire to eliminate salary arbitration.
With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1 this year, there’s an assumption a freeze will be placed on free agency and perhaps trades as well. Maybe that’s because we experienced a transaction freeze quite recently, spanning March 26-June 26 of 2020. But that was part of an agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, and it was triggered by a global pandemic that halted not just baseball, but life as we knew it.
So, the expiration of the CBA at the end of 1993 seems more instructive when trying to assess the possibility of a freeze this winter. In January 1994, the MLB offseason continued unabated, with seeming scant consideration for the lack of a collective bargaining agreement. The Padres agreed to a two-year, $8.5MM extension with star outfielder Tony Gwynn. The Mets and Royals exchanged problems in a swap of Vince Coleman and Kevin McReynolds. The Rockies inked free agent shortstop Walt Weiss to a two-year, $2.2MM deal. All the sorts of typical headlines you’d find on MLB Trade Rumors back in January ’94, had this site existed back then. None of these linked New York Times articles made mention of the just-expired CBA.
Of course, as Mark Armour and Dan Levitt of The Hardball Times put it, “in the summer of 1994, baseball’s owners and players were headed for the showdown to beat all showdowns.” MLBPA leader Donald Fehr correctly surmised in July, “We believe absent an agreement the owners will impose a salary cap sometime after the season. That leaves players with two choices — take what’s on the table or try to secure a new agreement by setting a strike date.” The owners followed by withholding the players’ $7.8MM pension payment, and the players soon followed through on their August 12 strike date.
With the 1994 World Series canceled and acrimony between the owners and players through the roof, it’d only be natural for ownership to implement a free agency freeze. Instead, they proposed a 45-day delay, which the union did not accept, and the 1994-95 offseason proceeded. It was far from a normal offseason, with Mets GM Joe McIlvaine saying things like, “We can’t do anything because we don’t know what the rules are.” Players like Jim Abbott and Jack McDowell were unsure if they had reached the six years of Major League service required for free agency, due to disagreement about whether service time was accrued during the strike. McDowell would eventually be traded to the Yankees despite that uncertainty. Other players were thought to be potential restricted free agents as four and five-year players, as part of the owners’ plan to eliminate salary arbitration.
Paradoxically, as Chass put it on October 28, “The business of baseball went on yesterday as if the strike did not exist.” Managers and GMs were hired and fired, sure, but clubs also continued doing big-money deals with players. On the eve of free agency, the Yankees and George Steinbrenner signed Paul O’Neill to a four-year, $19MM deal. A $1.2MM signing bonus included in the deal ran afoul of MLB recommendations, as they’d warned, “Clubs should keep in mind the payment of the bonus amounts to a decision by the club to help fund the continuing players strike.”
Teams continued signing free agents during the strike in the final months of 1994. “I’m not sure our words match our actions,” remarked Dodgers GM Fred Claire in this Bob Nightengale article. Angels GM Bill Bavasi commented, “I’m not saying teams are wrong for what they’re doing, it just has people confused. I know I can’t figure it out.” One of the winter’s top free agents, Gregg Jefferies, inked a four-year, $20MM deal with the Phillies. Not long after, the Mariners re-upped Jay Buhner for $15.5MM. December 23, 1994 marked a turning point, as the owners implemented their salary cap plan. It was only then that the union advised players not to sign free agent contracts, Chass wrote.
History shows us that if the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1 without a new deal in place, a freeze on free agency and/or trades is not fait accompli. It’s fair to say that the environment now is less contentious than it was 27 years ago, as ownership isn’t attempting to impose a salary cap and the players aren’t planning to strike this season. There is technically nothing stopping Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and all the rest from signing free agent contracts despite the lack of a CBA. While uncertainty around things like the new luxury tax thresholds and the universal designated hitter seems likely to suppress hot stove action, an actual free agency freeze won’t happen unless MLB or the players impose it.
Active MLB Players Who Have Received A Qualifying Offer
Under the current collective bargaining agreement, there are two reasons a player can be ineligible for a qualifying offer in a given offseason: they received one in a previous offseason, or they were traded during the just-completed season. The trade hall pass only applies to that specific year.
Sometimes it can be difficult to remember whether a current free agent received a QO years ago, so I’ve compiled a list of such active players. It remains to be seen how the qualifying offer system might be modified in a new CBA. Here’s the list:
Jose Abreu
Brett Anderson
Jake Arrieta
Trevor Bauer
Madison Bumgarner
Lorenzo Cain
Robinson Cano
Alex Cobb
Gerrit Cole
Patrick Corbin
Nelson Cruz
Wade Davis
Josh Donaldson
Dexter Fowler
Kevin Gausman
Yasmani Grandal
Zack Greinke
Bryce Harper
Jason Heyward
Greg Holland
Eric Hosmer
Kenley Jansen
Ian Kennedy
Dallas Keuchel
Craig Kimbrel
DJ LeMahieu
Lance Lynn
Mike Moustakas
Jake Odorizzi
Marcell Ozuna
AJ Pollock
J.T. Realmuto
Anthony Rendon
David Robertson
Hyun Jin Ryu
Pablo Sandoval
Carlos Santana
Ervin Santana
Max Scherzer
Will Smith (pitcher)
George Springer
Stephen Strasburg
Marcus Stroman
Justin Turner
Justin Upton
Zack Wheeler
Trevor Bauer’s Administrative Leave To Be Extended Through August 13
AUGUST 5: Bauer’s administrative leave will be extended tomorrow, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). This extension will run through August 13, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).
JULY 27: The league announced that Bauer’s administrative leave has been extended through August 6.
JULY 26: “A majority of players do not want [Trevor] Bauer back under any circumstances,” writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, who cites “two people with knowledge of Dodgers clubhouse dynamics.” Bauer’s paid administrative leave from the Dodgers, which the club has previously extended twice, runs through tomorrow. In late June, news surfaced of an ex parte temporary restraining order a San Diego woman obtained against Bauer after she alleged sexual assault.
Bauer appeared at a court hearing Friday in Los Angeles, which was pushed to August 2 as his attorney seeks more time to prepare based on recently-received medical records and exhibits. As Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic wrote, the three-day hearing is now set to take place on August 2, 3, and 19. At least nine witnesses will be called at that hearing, according to Britt Ghiroli, Fabian Ardaya, and Katie Strang of The Athletic. It’s known that the woman will call three police officers, while Bauer’s side is expected to call three witnesses of their own. Bauer’s accuser will also testify, and her side will call Bauer as a witness. Bauer’s attorney has advised him to invoke his fifth amendment rights.
DiGiovanna’s article is worth a read, as a well-done overview of where the Bauer situation stands at present and how he came to be a member of the Dodgers. It’s notable that DiGiovanna describes Bauer as a “pariah in his own clubhouse,” as his teammates haven’t spoken publicly on the topic. In the opinion of the L.A. Times scribe, Bauer’s entire career is in jeopardy.
The timing of a potential unpaid suspension by MLB remains unknown, as they investigate the allegations against Bauer on a parallel track with the Pasadena Police Department.
