If The Blue Jays Become Buyers
The Blue Jays are 24-17, five games back in the AL East. They're only two back of the Yankees for the wild card lead. The Jays have gotten this far based on middle of the pack pitching and a powerful offense. Their runs scored and allowed totals back up the .585 winning percentage, suggesting this team really can win 90+ games.
This was expected to be a consolidation year for the Blue Jays – set the bargain-basement rotation loose, let Travis Snider develop, trade away veteran relievers. Instead, rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos has to be considering making midseason upgrades for a once-improbable playoff run.
The offense has three glaring issues: designated hitter, first base, and second base. In other words, Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay, and Aaron Hill have disappointed, and it is to some extent balancing out surprising contributions by other hitters. We're talking of samples of less than 200 plate appearances for each, so it's very possible the best course of action is to just give each player more time to rediscover his 2009 form.
Overbay, a free agent after the season, would be the easiest to replace if he doesn't improve in the next month. We're not sure yet if game-changers like Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez will be available at the trade deadline, but acquiring either would require a radical departure from Anthopoulos' plan. It'd also block Brett Wallace (.309/.369/.612 at Triple A) through 2011. Calling up Wallace to replace Overbay might provide a sufficient upgrade. Otherwise, the Jays could target more reasonable first base rentals such as Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, or Lance Berkman.
A rotation reinforcement to back up the ace performances of Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero would help. Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow have shown enough promise that one veteran addition might be enough. Jesse Litsch could be an in-house addition next month. Still, the cost to acquire Kevin Millwood, Jake Westbrook, Brandon Webb, or Brett Myers wouldn't be high, as opposed to the Roy Oswalt/Cliff Lee range. The Jays' bullpen hasn't been great, but Jason Frasor appears to be back on track and they've got good arms at the back end.
The Blue Jays have to be treated as potential buyers rather than sellers. There are plenty of options to upgrade the club in 2010 without abandoning the long-term plan.
Odds & Ends: Kearns, Lowell, Dye, Strasburg
Links for Tuesday, as Hanley Ramirez digs himself into an even bigger hole after last night's jog…
- R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs examines Austin Kearns' resurgent season and says it's possible that the outfielder appears in trade rumors this summer. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see the Indians shop Kearns.
- FOX Sports Arizona profiled agent Jonathan Maurer, who represents Brandon Webb, among others.
- Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post has a profile of top amateur Bryce Harper that's well worth reading. Baseball America's Nathan Rode chatted with Harper and found that the prospect loves to catch and play the outfield.
- Mike Lowell doesn't see a role for himself on the Red Sox and wonders if the team would be better off without him, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Lowell explained his frustration to Rob Bradford of WEEI earlier today.
- I joined Jeff & Jeff on KFNS St. Louis earlier today; click here to listen.
- Jeff Fletcher of AOL FanHouse (Twitter link) talked to Eric Chavez, who said Jermaine Dye is "at peace being at home" and is not working out. This counters a quote from Dye's agent Bob Bry from May 11th, when Bry said Dye "continues to work out every morning and hits most days and is still waiting for an opportunity with a team that has a chance to advance to the playoffs."
- Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider wonders if Stephen Strasburg will make his big league debut June 4th against the Reds at Nationals Park. SI's Tom Verducci contrasts the Nats' careful handling of Strasburg to the Reds' approach with Mike Leake.
- Jim Margalus of Sox Machine presents his guide to a White Sox fire sale.
- AOL FanHouse's Steve Phillips explains the many responsibilities of a general manager.
- David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News notes that "the possibility of Cliff Lee falling into the hands of a rival faction [of the Phillies] is something that, at the very least, is worth pondering."
- Free agent lefty Brian Shouse hopes to continue his Major League career, writes Stan Morris of The Journal Star.
2011 Contract Issues Series
In our 2011 Contract Issues series, we looked at each club's free agents, options, and arbitration-eligible players after the 2010 season. Below you can find links to our entry for each team.
If The Brewers Become Sellers
Having dropped seven in a row, the Brewers stand at 15-23, seven games out in the NL Central. Though more than 76% of the season remains, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs points out that Milwaukee's playoff chances already look slim. Here's a look at who might be available if Doug Melvin opens up shop a month or two from now.
The discussion begins with Prince Fielder, who is signed for $10.5MM this year and arbitration-eligible for 2011. Fielder's power went missing in April, but he seems to be back in business now. Though the Brewers could lose Fielder to free agency, there's a case to be made for keeping him until next year's trade deadline in the name of competing in 2011. If he's dealt this summer, I think the package would have to focus on players who can help next year.
The majority of the Brewers' rotation might be immovable. Randy Wolf just began a three-year, $29.75MM deal, and his numbers have slipped. Doug Davis has been lousy, though he's on a one-year, $5.25MM deal. Dave Bush's ugly peripherals don't back up his 4.27 ERA, and he's being paid $4.215MM. Jeff Suppan, now working in long relief, is the highest-paid of all.
Trevor Hoffman's $8MM salary is prohibitive, though he's shown signs of life this month outside of a mop-up appearance. Well-paid relievers LaTroy Hawkins and David Riske are on the DL.
The Brewers do have some attractive trade chips. Corey Hart is playing better, so he could be dealt assuming the Brewers don't plan to tender him a contract after the season. It might be tougher to trade Rickie Weeks, who is also arbitration-eligible one last time after 2010. Lefty Manny Parra had an excellent April, but the Brewers wouldn't have much motivation to trade him. With Davis hitting the DL, Parra rejoins the Brewers' rotation today.
Veterans such as Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Gregg Zaun, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds would make sense to shop, as all are free agents after the season (Zaun has a club option).
GM Initiation: Andrew Friedman
Andrew Friedman was promoted to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations of the Rays on November 3rd, 2005. Fun fact: I wrote MLBTR's first post the next day. Friedman struck his first deal about a month later, acquiring third baseman Sean Burroughs from the Padres for pitcher Dewon Brazelton. Both were former first-round draft picks. As part of the deal, the Rays used their Rule 5 pick on pitcher Steve Andrade and sent him to the Padres as well. Another fun fact: Dan Uggla was chosen by the Marlins in that same Rule 5 draft.
Friedman kindly answered a few questions for MLBTR about his first trade.
MLB Trade Rumors: Burroughs had a decent chance of being non-tendered had he remained with the Padres. Did you consider retaining Brazelton and waiting to see whether Burroughs hit the free agent market? Would the Rays have tendered Brazelton a contract?
Andrew Friedman: When you plan to acquire an arbitration-eligible player, you always have to look at the possibility that he might be non-tendered, and work through the implications if he is. It made sense, where we were as an organization at that time, to look for upside, and Burroughs was a player with significant upside – a young third baseman with defensive ability and a great pedigree who had shown a lot of promise with the bat in his minor league career. We had a player whom the Padres liked and who didn't fit into our plans, so it made sense to pursue a swap before the tender date.
MLBTR: You described this as a "classic change-of-scenery trade." Why do you think that change failed to produce results for either principal player?
Friedman: Like most "change-of-scenery" trades, this one involved players who had struggled to live up to their tools. That happens an awful lot – it's a hard game, and if success were as simple as switching uniforms, you'd see it a lot more often. We've had a few instances here where a change of scenery yielded tremendous results, but most of the time, it doesn't work despite everybody's best efforts. It's very difficult, no matter your physical ability, to have a long, successful major league career.
MLBTR: This was the one deal struck by the Rays at your first Winter Meetings in Dallas. How would you describe your Meetings experience as a rookie?
Friedman: The first time is always a learning experience. You're still meshing as a front office, and still getting to know many of the other GM's. In my case, I'd been with the organization for a couple of years before taking this job, and that made the transition more seamless. I had a good grasp of our own personnel, both in the front office and on the field. That was a big help but it was still an adjustment. We felt good about what we did there and the lessons we took from it, and we continue to adjust and refine our processes every year.
MLBTR: Shortly after the Brazelton trade, another former first-round pick, Josh Hamilton, cleared waivers. Were you surprised no one made a claim?
Friedman: It was not a surprise. We all know Josh's talent but it was more of a procedural move as he was still on the restricted list.
MLBTR: When you make a trade, do you want to see your former player have success with his new team? If your end of the deal doesn't pay off, do you prefer the other team's doesn't either?
Friedman: Once we make a trade, we're most invested in the success of the players we've acquired. But we don't root against those we’ve traded away as we've had so many great relationships with our players over the years.
Thanks to Andrew Friedman for contributing. Ned Colletti, Neal Huntington, Jon Daniels, and Josh Byrnes have also participated in the GM Initiation series.
Ortiz Expects Pedro To Pitch This Season
David Ortiz expects his friend Pedro Martinez to pitch this season, reports Mark Hale of the New York Post. Ortiz spoke to Pedro about a month ago; at that time the pitcher was working out but not really talking to teams.
Back on April 6th, Martinez said he wouldn't need long to get ready and had a preference for an NL East Coast contender. Pedro is known to have been in contact with the Phillies, while the Mets appear uninterested in a second stint. Given Martinez's criteria, he might need to get the Nationals involved to spark a competition for his services.
Players Who Cannot Be Offered Arbitration
Being designated a Type A free agent can be a detriment if the team offers arbitration. If the player accepts, he's off the market on a one-year deal and has a limited salary range. If he declines, his new team must surrender a draft pick upon signing him. Carrying around the added draft pick cost, Juan Cruz and Orlando Cabrera were among those with fewer opportunities as free agents after the '08 season.
As a result, a contractual clause prohibiting the team from offering arbitration if a player receives Type A status has been gaining in popularity. During the 2009-10 offseason, at least four players had this clause added:
- Orlando Hudson, Legacy Sports. Hudson was offered and turned down arbitration from the Diamondbacks after the '08 season, and was surprised he could only find a one-year deal from the Dodgers guaranteeing $3.38MM. The Dodgers were willing to give up the #17 overall pick to get Hudson at the reduced rate. Hudson avoided the problem when the Dodgers chose not to offer arbitration after the '09 season. His agent made sure it would not surface again after '10 by having a clause included in his Twins contract prohibiting the team from offering arbitration if he's a Type A. Hudson is a Type B right now anyway.
- Brad Penny, Legacy Sports. Penny was well-paid by the Cardinals given his 2009 stats, but he also had the "no arbitration offer" clause included. That might've been optimistic, since right now he's not even a Type B.
- Justin Duchscherer, Lapa/Leventhal. The A's offered arbitration to Duchscherer, a Type B, after the '09 season. He declined and re-signed, and this time made sure the team cannot offer if he's a Type A. The point is moot, as Duchscherer is below Type B and may miss the rest of the season with hip surgery.
- Ben Sheets, CAA. Not only did Sheets snag a huge $10MM guarantee after missing all of '09, he got this clause added just in case he has a season awesome enough to vault him to Type A status. I'm not sure that's even possible. Though he's been better recently, he'd need to quadruple his current Elias points (15.175) to reach Type B.
- Scott Boras may have been out front on this trend. He had the clause included in Ivan Rodriguez's one-year, $10MM deal with the Marlins in '03 as well as Carlos Beltran's seven-year, $119MM deal signed in '05. Beltran is a Type A at this time, but the Mets might not have offered arbitration after '11 anyway.
D’Backs Acquire Saul Rivera, Release Howry
The Diamondbacks have acquired reliever Saul Rivera from the Indians for cash and released Bob Howry, tweets Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse.
Rivera, 32, has a 0.53 ERA, 5.8 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 in 17 Triple A innings so far this year. He's got similar peripherals over 275.6 career big league innings, leading to a 4.05 ERA. Rivera was released by the Nationals in December (on his birthday) to make room for Brian Bruney. He later signed a minor league deal with the Indians.
Howry, 36, was signed by the D'Backs to a one-year, $2.25MM deal in December. In 14.3 innings this year, he sports a matching 3.8 in terms of home runs, walks, and strikeouts per nine innings. That's not an effective formula. Arizona's bullpen has a 7.68 ERA in 104.3 innings, so changes were necessary. Aside from Aaron Heilman, everyone has struggled.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Troy Glaus
Troy Glaus was traded to the Cardinals in January of 2008, waiving his no-trade clause and exercising his '09 player option for more than $12MM. He recovered from surgery to repair a nerve in his foot and posted a fine '08, hitting 27 home runs and playing over 1,200 innings at third base. A year after the trade Glaus had arthroscopic right shoulder surgery, which ultimately limited him to 135 pro plate appearances in 2009. Glaus previously had a procedure on that shoulder in May of '04.
The lost '09 season drove Glaus' price down in free agency, as he signed for a base salary of $1.75MM. He'll get a $250K bonus with 100 days on the active roster and can earn another $2MM based on plate appearances. Glaus is currently on pace to exceed 600 plate appearances and max out his incentives, which would bring him to $4MM earned in 2010.
After a slow April, Glaus has a scorching .400/.460/.600 line in May. He seems headed toward 25 home runs and 100 RBIs. He's also settled in as a regular first baseman. Though the Braves' offense has shown a surprising lack of power, GM Frank Wren deserves praise for this low-risk signing. Glaus will turn 34 in August, so he won't be in line for a multiyear deal after the season. He's nowhere near Type B status, so free agent compensation won't be involved either. He still may be able to pull off a contract similar to that of Adam LaRoche and Hideki Matsui – around $6MM guaranteed.
Elias Rankings Update
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings, and he's providing his work exclusively here at MLB Trade Rumors. The player stats used start with the beginning of the 2009 season and run through May 15th, 2010. We still have 4.5 months for these to change.
A few thoughts:
- Javier Vazquez is still a Type A at the moment, but his 75.000 score isn't far from Type B. Carl Pavano and Jon Garland have a chance at climbing up to A status. Jorge de la Rosa, Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo, Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Correia, Cliff Lee, and Andy Pettitte are currently Type As.
- Relievers such as Rafael Soriano, Matt Guerrier, Darren Oliver, Dan Wheeler, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Pedro Feliciano, Trever Miller, Billy Wagner, Arthur Rhodes, and Trevor Hoffman are currently As. Not all would get arbitration offers, of course.
- At 65.555, Carlos Pena is a B and isn't far from falling out of that group. Adam Dunn could join the Type As soon, which might compel the Nationals to offer arbitration after the season. Derrek Lee could slip to B status, while Jorge Cantu, Lance Berkman, and Aramis Ramirez are already there. Adam LaRoche isn't even a B.
