The Dodgers are paying over $15MM to former players this year; that number will fall under $7MM in 2011 as their commitments will be reduced to Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. They'll also potentially free up over $40MM for departing free agents, with Manny Ramirez, Hiroki Kuroda, and Vicente Padilla the biggest salaries.
On the increase side, players under contract will receive over $13MM more. Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, Jonathan Broxton, and Matt Kemp account for the raises. More increases will be due to arbitration-eligibles: Chad Billingsley, James Loney, and Hong-Chih Kuo enter their second year, Russell Martin his third, and George Sherrill his fourth. Sherrill can be considered a non-tender candidate, only because the Dodgers may be reluctant to pay a setup man more than $5MM.
Even if payroll is maintained in the low $100MM range, the Dodgers should free up enough money to adequately replace Ramirez and at least one of the starting pitchers.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
I thought Furcal’s contract was up after this year?
Furcal signed a 3-year contract last year. His contract will be up in 2011.
Alright thanks wasnt sure if it was up this year or next
Would the Dodgers be willing to actually spend on Manny’s replacement? Who could they get? Jayson Werth comes to mind.
HA forget it if McCourts still the owner next year, in club options gonna get it. Lambo and Paul are some names you should watch out for
Add Robinson in that group. My guess is one of them will be given the spot.
If they all have bad years though, we could(not very likely, but lets dream a little) see Werth or Crawford..
Dont the Yankees have dibs on Crawford? But yeah I can see Werth if our guys have down years
Haha, they wish. I could see crawford if our guys have bad years and Loney finds power. That way we don’t need power from LF and can have a crazy 1-2 combo of furcal and crawford
Which Ray do the Yanks have their eyes on for next year then?
They want Crawford but don’t have dibs.
Now this would piss off everyone, but imagine if they also wanted Pena for the DH spot? Damn….
They could probably find a better full-time DH if they actually wanted to go that route.
A better one than Pena? I’m not sure…
i doubt werth would even want to come to LA after the way they gave him the boot out the door.
Werth wasn’t given a boot out the door, however, he was considering a suit against the Dodgers for the bungled medical care/missed diagnosis he received on his wrist. Like Pedro, there has been a “regime change”, at least in the GM & medical staffs since his last stint on the club.
That’s as close as you might get to being booted out the door; it could actually be worse. It’s not something an 8 figure contract can’t… Oh wait, it’s the frugal McCourt we’re talking about.
I think Xavier Paul/Lambo is the way to go for next year. The free agent class is so weak they should improve pitching with focusing on Cliff Lee or incentive laden deal for Brandon Webb and use some money to extend Kershaw to a team friendly deal. Save some money for the 2012 free agent class to make a run at Prince or maybe even Pujols if Frank isnt as cheap as he says he is. I dont think Loney will ever develop the power they expect.
Pujols will never sniff FA.
I wouldnt be surprised if he does.. not because he wants every dollar, but if A. He feels the Cards are really shortchanging him or B. He wants to play somewhere else
When it comes down to it, Pujols is going to get his playing value where ever he goes. However, there are certain markets that will offer him more value when it comes to marketing/endorsements over St. Louis. It just depends whether or not he wants to take advantage of those extra opportunities that a place like LA or NY gives him over St. Louis.
I could see him signing with the Yankees as their full-time DH.
The way Manny’s contract works the Dodgers are only going to be paying him 1.5 million less in 2011. The money the Dodgers save on departing guys is closer to 20 million.
Yeah thats right. Manny gets paid FOREVER. Gotta love the McCourts.
That’s correct. While Cots’ mentions that Manny is owed $10 million in 2010 and $8.3 million each year from 2011-2013, their spreadsheet states his 2010 salary as $20 million. So the net gain next season will be less than $10 million and they should use that on pitching. Guys like Xavier Paul, Andrew Lambo, Trayvon Robinson, Scott Van Slyke and Kyle Russell are more likely replacements for Manny than any big name free agent.
Kyle Russell – 180 K’s in 133 games in Low-A last year. Highly unlikely he’ll make the jump to the majors in 2010.
Trayvon Robinson – Hasn’t played above A-ball until this year. Still a bit raw.
Lambo – Still very young, but disappointed in Double-A last year. Won’t be ready in 2011.
Paul – 4th outfielder
Van Slyke – Breakout 2009, but that was in the Cal league. Doubt he’s ready in 2011 either.
So really, lots of guys with decent upside, but most probably won’t be ready until 2012. Perhaps the Dodgers will look at a stopgap LF.
gotta disagree. Lambo and Robinson, along with Paul, are contenders for the LF spot in 2010. Now, these will rely on a few things. If Lambo has a good year, he is getting a look in LF. If Robinson proves last year wasnt a fluke(Id say he is far from raw, but finally put the tools he had together), he is in the competition. Paul will get a look because Torre and staff liked him and see him as a potential starter. I think he is a platoon guy/4th OF, but he’ll get a look, especially if Lambo and Robinson arent ready.
Now, if they all have horrible years/injuries, the Dodgers could go into the FA market
Hey like the optimism, but just trying to be realistic. Paul simply doesn’t have the pop for a starting corner position. Robinson’s tools are intriguing, but going from High-A to Double-A/Triple-A to starting in the majors the following year is a big jump. Now a huge 2010 from Paul in the upper minors and I’m on board with him as a starter, but just trying to temper expectations.
We are agreeing. We’d love to see Paul be a starter, but he doesnt do any one thing good enough to scream future starter.
With Robinson, this is a make or break year, IMO. He broke out in a big way last year and finally combined his power and speed, and has always had the defense. If he has another strong year and maintains his power, he will be in the competition against Lambo and Paul for the LF spot. The power/speed combo is a rare one and if a player has it, they will try to utilize it.
This isn’t a bad spot to go dry in. Decent hitting poor defensive left fielders aren’t really getting paid too much. Buying FA LF insurance won’t cost too much and comes with the added bonus of giving significant at-bats to the younger guys. We already have a guy that could fit this bill in Garret Anderson. He’s not an ideal solution, but as a stopgap/placeholder until some kid shows and proves I think it’d be alright for the price which will probably increase 4-6 fold for next season if he has an average season.
Crawford is a great all around player on both sides of the ball, I just don’t see him passing on whatever ridiculous offer new york ends up offering him. Mr. Crawford is going to get paid.
The likeliness that Manny gets replaced by someone in house would hopefully mean we can go get a decent pitcher on the free agent market
“Even if payroll is maintained in the low $100MM range, the Dodgers should free up enough money to adequately replace Ramirez and at least one of the starting pitchers.”
Does the fact that they’re actually at closer to $85mil this year give any other Dodger fans pause? There’ll be no “maintaining” anything close to $100mil.
BTW, I’ve never understood why MLBTR uses the double-M (“MM”) to designate “millions”. Anyone know the origin of that? Why not just one “M”?
the ‘M’ was discussed months ago, and Tim basically said he got comfortable with the MM, so he stuck to it
And yes, 85M for a championship contender is pathetic..
Nice call — $85MM current payroll vs. $100MM in salary commitments.
MM stands for “thousand thousand” = 1 million. It’s a fairly common designation.
The Dodgers have 2 lefties (Paul & Lambo), but no real righty (maybe Hoffman) to platoon. I think Lambo has more team control years than Paul, who came up briefly last season. They aren’t signing anyone big until the McCourts are gone, and even then, the team will be paying Manny for 2 more years (and Pierre, and everyone else). Off roster players will receive $15,412,950.00 this year, and a bunch next year with Manny joining the list. On the bright side, Haeger struck out 12 in his first start, but lost, and Lindbolm and the other kids look ready for shot. Expect more from within and less from without from LA until around 2012.
Trayvon Robinson is a switch hitter… if he proves last year wasnt a fluke, hes up there with Lambo, or even higher because he is better defensively
With a .385 BAbip, last year was a fluke. Doesnt mean progress wasnt made, but there is zero chance of him providing marks like that moving forward.
As far as a talent level, something in the .330 range might be easier to repeat consistently. And when applying that mark to last years numbers you have a line somewhere around .269/.343/.448/.791 for his 2009 A+ performance.
Right now, if he can improve his patience a bit more youre probably looking at about the career lines of Mark Teahen (of course, with speed) if he can transition to the majors. Playing in LA you might also drop it a little bit more; especially since (also similar to Teahen) Robinson hits a whole lot of groundballs. In fact his career 59% GB rate is in the Luis Castillo insanity level, so hopefully he can correct the pounding them into the dirt headed forward.
I was talking more about patience at the plate and power. He hadnt shown the type of HR power he did until last year…
He hit a LOT of GBs early in his career because he is extremely fast(there was talks in the offseason he was close to as fast as Dee Gordon) and he got a lot of base hits on the ground. He will always have a high BABIP. 385 is obviously unsustainable, but he will have a high BABIP in his career
The BB/K rates? Remember, a spiked BAbip will end up altering BB and possibly K rates as well. When youre hot or sporting huge marks, you get pitched around (as he was for the first time last season) And with a high BAbip you stand the chance of not K’ing as much since you don’t have as many opportunities. On a plus note – the BB hike isn’t Houstons doing (that will make sense in a sec) and might really sit in the 8.0-8.5 range as far as ability shown last year.
The power? Unless he finds a way to face nothing but Lancasters beyond horrific 09 pitching staff for the rest of his career, much of it isn’t real.
It improved last season, but facing Houston accounted for nearly 40% of the increase – he hit .380/.431/.660/1.091 for a .280 ISO in 100 AB against them, and .286/.358/.448/.806 for .162 ISO in 364 AB against the other clubs. (that club was really bad – 1.61 WHIP where next highest was 1.50. Their ERA was a full run higher then the next closest, and their R/G was nearly 1.5 runs higher then the average. Just a sad staff, and likely getting no help from the park)
Take into consideration also that the league itself is notorious for raising power numbers (second only to the ML, and the California league runs about 40 points higher then the sister FSL). Then, 3 of his 14 HR were misplayed bloopers for in the park homers and the unrealistic BAbip lead to a higher XBH rate as well. Overall, I’d say something around 150 marks are realistic going forward (as mentioned before, think Teahen), but the .194 it looked like he produced is just not very real.
The BAbip? Something around 330 is really high. But the low contact and huge GB rates will mean its probably going to fluctuate quite a bit year to year as well.
And so you know, you have it backwards. His GB% was actually below 50 until he reached A/A+, where it jumped off the charts the last three seasons. It went back down slightly last year at Inland Empire (well, 54%, but that is an improvement) with that park seemingly helping it out, but it again spiked at Chattanooga (62%) upon the promotion. It will start hurting as he reaches the advanced levels where defense is much stronger.
The Yankees are rumored to be interested in Crawford and Werth so you can be sure that the Dodgers will stay out of the bidding (a shame). With the reports of the McCourt plan to cut payroll and raise ticket prices over the next 8 years, I think we need to not look for what free agents are out there, but to concentrate on keeping Kemp, Ethier, Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton and any other young guns who McCourt will see as too expensive in a couple of years
It is not likely any big time free agents will be signed by the dodgers they are headed in a different directon. The minor leaguers of course are unproven and you have to assume if they were any good the dodgers would not have signed Anderson and a few others this year. You can already see the affects of McCourt freezing the payroll in the off season the bullpen guys they got off of the scrap heep are getting shelled. You pay next to nothing you get next to nothing.
the bullpen is pretty good though. The guy they traded for (look up) is the type of move they need to avoid. I don’t think signing free agent relievers would give much ROI, especially with all the young arms the dodgers have. That said, I’d rather them sign a veteran reliever in free agency or having them burn a big pile of money than trade a top 10 prospect for a reliever.
Yeah it is so good it has already blown three leads in a short season. With the thin starting pitching they have and the fact that Kershaw is having growing pains in the major leagues by giving up so many walks, and the loss of wolf it will be hard for the dodgers to win there division. Of course it is still early but what you are seeing is what was expected because of an ownership unwilling to spend any money.But not all is lost you can now get a grilled dodger dog on every level.
that’s an extremely small sample size to judge. This bullpen, mostly unchanged from last year, was one of the best bullpens in the league. Kuo and Bellisario are out right now but when they return they should give more stability to leads. Also keep in mind relief management and usage is not Torre’s strong suit. Even in the small sample size of this season there is evidence of that to go with the wealth of anecdotal evidence. Overall Torre is a good manager though as his records with dodger teams with a payroll and talent level lower than the yankees attests to. It’s a long season. He still has to figure out what he’s got as a manager.
Time will tell the tale.
the dodgers need to stop giving money to anyone that with the last name of Ortiz. Super double fail.
WHAT LAD NEEDS IS TO TRADE FURCAL…I MEAN HE´S A GREAT PLAYER BUT LAD CAN´T AFFORT ALL THAT INJURIES. BESIDES I STRONGLY THINK THAT GIBBONS, ETHIER, KEMP, WOULD BE A NICE PACK TO START WITH AT THE OF. DODGERS HAVE TO START LOOKING FOR A SS AND A CATCHER ASAP…FILL IN THE ROTATION (MY LIKES TO T.LILLY) AND IF THERE IS ENOGH MONEY I WOULD LOOK TO GET A POWER 3B. THAT´S MY THOUGHTS BYE ALL…. GO DODGERS!!!!!!!!