Ned Colletti Comments
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times has the latest from Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, who recently signed a multiyear extension.
- Colletti and the Dodgers agreed to keep the length of the new contract a secret, to avoid future distractions.
- Colletti's explanation of his bad moves: "In an effort to turn that around as soon as possible, we made some moves that in hindsight you wouldn't do twice. But in the last year or so, our deliberation and our thought process were keener, were more fine-tuned, were less impatient."
- Possible long-term deals for arbitration-eligible players will be considered on a "case-by-case basis." Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, George Sherrill, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, and James Loney are among Colletti's arbitration cases this winter. Which would you lock up?
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Cubs. Their likely 2010 commitments:
C – Geovany Soto – $575K
C – Koyie Hill – $475K+
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Jeff Baker – $415K+
SS – Ryan Theriot – $500K+
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $15.75MM
IF – Aaron Miles – $2.7MM
IF – Andres Blanco – $400K
LF – Alfonso Soriano – $18MM
CF – Kosuke Fukudome – $13MM
RF – Milton Bradley – $9MM
OF – Sam Fuld – $402K
3B/OF – Jake Fox – $402K
SP – Carlos Zambrano – $17.875MM
SP – Ryan Dempster – $12.5MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $12MM
SP – Randy Wells – $402K
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $433K+
RP – Aaron Heilman – $1.625MM+
RP – Carlos Marmol – $575K+
RP – Sean Marshall – $450K+
RP – Angel Guzman – $422K+
RP – Esmailin Caridad – $400K
RP – Jeff Stevens – $400K
RP – Jeff Samardzija – $2.5MM
Non-tender candidates: Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Mike Fontenot
The Cubs have about $124.2MM committed before arbitration raises to Hill, Baker, Theriot, Heilman, Marmol, Marshall, Guzman, and Gorzelanny. Fontenot, at two years and 139 days of service time, is on the bubble for Super Two status (which could influence his 2010 status with the team). Heilman, Cotts, and Fontenot are candidates to be non-tendered. With at least seven arb cases, there is payroll uncertainty, but I'll put the Cubs around $135MM committed. The Cubs entered 2009 with a payroll right around that mark, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The Cubs have new ownership for 2010, and their payroll plans are not yet known.
The Cubs seem dead-set on moving Bradley and finding someone else to play right or center field. A player they loved a year ago, they hate now. Bradley had a slow start and finish, showed little power, and had issues with the fans, media, and manager. Still, he posted a .378 OBP in the off-year and certainly could improve upon that in 2010. My advice: work it out, rather than eating $15MM+ or taking on a different bad contract. Bradley is not the reason the Cubs received over 2,000 plate appearances of subpar hitting from Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, Hill, Hoffpauir, and Miles, nor is he the reason Ramirez was limited to 342 PAs due to a shoulder injury.
With proper conditioning, Soto should bounce back. Baker can't do worse than the other Cubs' second basemen did in '09. Ramirez's shoulder is worrisome, but the Cubs must hope for good health. Soriano finished the season with knee surgery and will presumably be healthy for Spring Training. His contract is so absurd that the team has no flexibility. In all likelihood the Cubs will replace Bradley, but it is the holdovers who need to improve. It would be a shame to see new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo encourage aggression from the hitters, as it was patience that led to the team's NL-best .354 OBP in 2008.
The rotation looks strong, with the front four locked in. Gorzelanny, Marshall, or Samardzija will probably fill the fifth starter role.
As for the bullpen, the Cubs seem willing to spend good money on John Grabow, perhaps not the best idea (5.0 BB/9). Heilman could be non-tendered. Marmol is the de facto closer, despite 65 walks in 74 innings. Adding a Billy Wagner type makes sense, if payroll allows. Guzman is interesting if he can stay healthy, while Caridad is a sleeper.
The Cubs are a pricey team with room for little more than tinkering. GM Jim Hendry will need to push the right buttons this winter after a 2008-09 offseason filled with miscalculations.
Odds & Ends: Sano, Towers, D’Backs, Fehr
Links for Wednesday…
- Kevin Towers has a standing offer from the Red Sox, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. For now, Towers plans on taking a few months off. In contrast, a week ago ESPN's Buster Olney wrote that "there would appear to be excellent odds that Towers will land with the Yankees as a special assistant sometime in the months ahead."
- The Cubs' contract with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo is official.
- Miguel Angel Sano received his U.S. work visa, according to SI's Melissa Segura.
- The new Rays hitting coach is Derek Shelton, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic crafts an offseason plan for the Diamondbacks, who have a decent amount of money to work with. We did our Offseason Outlook for the team back in September.
- J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics says tendering a contract to arbitration-eligible right fielder Jeff Francoeur is probably worthwhile for the Mets. I don't sense that non-tendering him is a serious consideration.
- Donald Fehr will receive an $11MM parting gift when he steps down from his MLBPA position, says ESPN's Amy K. Nelson. The players were mostly in favor of the decision, according to Curtis Granderson.
- The Rangers met with Jim Crane's group Tuesday, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Two more potential investing groups are scheduled.
- Backup catcher Mike Redmond told MLB.com's Kelly Thesier he plans on playing next year, whether or not it's with the Twins.
- 41-year-old righty Keiichi Yabu also hopes to play in 2010, says NPB Tracker's Ryo Shinkawa.
- Reliever George Sherrill has no hard feelings about the Orioles trading him to the Dodgers, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
- MLB.com's Dick Kaegel talked to Zack Greinke, who was characteristically blunt.
- In a Saturday post, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts said he'd like to see how GM Ned Colletti handles the decreased payroll flexibility once his young players reach arbitration. Weisman is even-handed in his assessment of Colletti, but here's a funny quote: "I don't laud him for retaining the young core of the team: Kershaw, Kemp, Billingsley, Broxton, Martin, et al. Knowing not to dump those guys is like knowing not to show up to work in your underwear."
Free Agent Lefty Mashers
Looking for free agent bats that can crush lefties? Among those with 100 plate appearances against southpaws this year, here are your best bets, ranked by OBP:
- Nick Johnson – .440
- Mike Cameron – .420
- Matt Holliday – .405
- Jason Bay – .402
- Marco Scutaro – .389
- Jermaine Dye – .387
- Adrian Beltre – .384
- Gabe Kapler – .379
- Felipe Lopez – .379
They didn't make the OBP list, but Mark DeRosa, Bengie Molina, Gabe Kapler, and Jason Giambi showed good power (SLG) against lefties.
On the other hand, free agents Randy Winn, Hank Blalock, Alex Gonzalez, and Joe Crede struggled mightily against southpaws.
Chris Bootcheck Elects Free Agency
Reliever and Scott Boras client Chris Bootcheck has elected free agency, according to a press release from the Pirates. Righties Denny Bautista and Craig Hansen were also outrighted, but apparently remain in the organization for now.
Bootcheck, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in December. The signing seemed to signify the Pirates could work with Boras after the Pedro Alvarez drama. Bootcheck picked up 20 saves in Triple A, posting very strong peripherals (11.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, one home run allowed in 42.6 innings). He did not fare well in his 14.6 big league innings, but did average 93.6 mph on his heater.
Dodgers, Ned Colletti Agree To Long-Term Deal
The Dodgers agreed to a long-term deal with GM Ned Colletti, according to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. The move has been confirmed by a team press release.
In September, SI's Jon Heyman suggested this would be a three-year contract. We discussed Colletti's work here.
Discussion: Aubrey Huff
Aubrey Huff wasn't great in 2006 (.267/.344/.469), but he still found a three-year, $21MM offer from the Orioles that winter. Surprisingly, Huff cranked out a .304/.360/.552 performance in 2008, ranking fifth in the AL in slugging. Huff was mainly a DH at that point, perhaps one reason why he cleared waivers.
Huff wasn't nearly as successful this year; he hit .241/.310/.384 in 597 plate appearances for the Orioles and Tigers. He was especially awful after the August 17th trade to Detroit.
Huff turns 33 in December, and his stock is down as he enters free agency. He logged 826 innings at first base this year, so we can't rule out an NL job. But does any team envision Huff as a regular player? Can he expect more than $2-3MM?
Mets Release Ken Takahashi
The Mets released lefty reliever Ken Takahashi, according to Ben Shpigel of the New York Times (via Twitter).
Takahashi, 40, signed a minor league free agent contract with the Blue Jays in February. The Mets scooped him up after the Jays released him in March. Takahashi tossed 56.6 Triple A innings, including seven starts. He had a reverse platoon split in his 27.3 big league innings, as lefties knocked him around to the tune of .302/.387/.472.
Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Brewers. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C –
C – Mike Rivera – $415K+
1B – Prince Fielder – $10.5MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $2.45MM+
SS – Alcides Escobar – $400K
3B – Casey McGehee – $400K
IF – J.J. Hardy – $4.65MM+
IF – Mat Gamel – $400K
LF – Ryan Braun – $1MM
CF – Jody Gerut – $1.775MM+
RF – Corey Hart – $3.25MM+
OF –
? –
SP – Yovani Gallardo – $414K
SP – Dave Bush – $4MM+
SP – Manny Parra – $426K
SP – Jeff Suppan – $12.5MM
SP – Chris Narveson – $400K
Braden Looper – $6.5MM mutual option, $750K buyout if club declines
RP – Trevor Hoffman – $7.5MM
RP – Seth McClung – $1.6625MM+
RP – Todd Coffey – $800K+
RP – Carlos Villanueva – $447K+
RP – Mitch Stetter – $408K
RP – Mark DiFelice – $403K
RP – Chris Smith – $400K
Other commitments: Bill Hall – $7.15MM, David Riske – $4.5MM, David Weathers – $400K buyout
Non-tender candidates: Jody Gerut, Seth McClung
Let's say the Brewers non-tender Gerut and McClung and decline options on Looper and Weathers. That'd put them at $64MM before arbitration raises to Rivera, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Bush, Coffey, and Villanueva. Many of these players had off years but we still have to put the team in the $70MM range. $4.5MM would be trimmed if Hardy is traded for a minimum-salary player. The Brewers entered 2009 with a $80.2MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
GM Doug Melvin could have $10MM+ to spend, with holes to fill at catcher, center field, and in the rotation. Melvin must shoulder some of the blame for the team's limited payroll flexibility – the Brewers have $11.65MM in dead money for Riske and Hall in 2010, plus $12.5MM for Suppan to conclude that dubious signing.
The Brewers could fill the catching spot internally, if they allow Jason Kendall to leave as a free agent. The candidate is 23-year-old prospect Angel Salome. Salome hit .286/.334/.413 in 314 Triple A plate appearances this year. His defense is a question mark, and the Brewers did not give him a September audition. Starting Salome would be a risky move, and Kendall does want to stay.
Weeks is strongly opposed to moving to center field, and incumbent Mike Cameron is a free agent. Cameron is willing to take a pay cut to stay, and the Brewers should strongly consider re-signing him. Gerut may be cut loose after a .230/.279/.376 performance. Internally, Lorenzo Cain (.214/.277/.338 at Double A, missed time with a ligament tear) can't be ruled out. Note that Melvin said in September that "we cannot be distracted" by holes in the field due to the need to focus on pitching.
On to the rotation, Melvin would like to add two starting pitchers. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy wrote on September 10th that "the Brewers will almost certainly pick up" Looper's option. I've written before that I don't think that's a good idea. For that same price the Brewers could sign a free agent with significantly more upside.
The Brewers will not trade Braun or Fielder, but it seems very likely that they'll make Hardy and/or Gamel available for starting pitching. Today at U.S.S. Mariner Dave Cameron proposed a Hardy-Brandon Morrow swap, which seems reasonable. The Twins, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could be other potential fits for the shortstop.
Even before considering a possible long-term deal for Fielder, Melvin has his work cut out for him this winter. He's already re-signed Hoffman and added Rick Peterson as the new pitching coach. Now he must take a limited budget to find two starting pitchers, a catcher, and a center fielder. He has to decide on Looper's option, entertain offers for Hardy, and deal with at least five significant arbitration cases. Should be an action-packed hot stove season for Brewers fans.
Odds & Ends: Johjima, Rockies, Kikuchi
Links for Tuesday…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- The Hanshin Tigers are interested in Kenji Johjima, according to Kyodo News.
- The Rockies are expected to re-sign GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy this week, according to Patrick Saunders and Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.
- Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times says the Dodgers "are mindful that [signing Yusei Kikuchi] could harm the club's long-standing ties in Japan." Kikuchi told Kyodo News that interviewing with 12 NPB and eight MLB clubs made his decision even more difficult. NPB Tracker has more.
- Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle says Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn has been "the perfect trade." In that November 2007 deal, the Phillies also received infielder Eric Bruntlett and the Astros also acquired Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo (Geary is now a free agent). I'd say the Astros may ultimately win the deal if Bourn's breakout season holds up, since they gave up one year of Lidge for five of Bourn. But, as Justice noted, the Phillies have a ring.
- Always fun…Dave Cameron's 2010 offseason plan for the Mariners at U.S.S. Mariner. My one beef is the John Danks acquisition…I don't think it fits from Chicago's point of view.
- Viva El Birdos takes a look at the Cardinals' 2010 commitments.
- MLB.com's Mychael Urban discusses Justin Duchscherer's future.