Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Pirates. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Ryan Doumit – $3.55MM
C – Jason Jaramillo – $400K
C/IF – Robinzon Diaz – $401K
1B/OF – Garrett Jones – $400K
2B – Delwyn Young – $406K
SS – Ronny Cedeno – $823K+
3B – Andy LaRoche – $414K
IF – Ramon Vazquez – $2MM
IF – Steve Pearce – $408K
IF – Brian Bixler – $404K
LF – Lastings Milledge – $452K
CF – Andrew McCutchen – $400K
RF – Brandon Moss – $415K
Other possibilities: 1B/C – Jeff Clement – $405K, 3B/OF – Neil Walker – $400K
SP – Paul Maholm – $4.5MM
SP – Zach Duke – $2.2MM+
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $414K
SP – Charlie Morton – $405K
SP – Daniel McCutchen – $400K
Other rotation candidates: Jeff Karstens – $402K, SP – Kevin Hart – $408K, Jose Ascanio – $405K
RP – Matt Capps – $2.3MM+
RP – Jesse Chavez – $402K
RP – Evan Meek – $401K
RP – Joel Hanrahan – $420K
RP – Steven Jackson – $400K
RP – Phil Dumatrait – $402K
RP – Failed rotation candidate
Other commitments: Pedro Alvarez – $500K
Non-tender candidates: Tyler Yates – $1.3MM+, Craig Hansen – $825K+, Denny Bautista – $400K+, Chris Bootcheck – $600K+
Because of all the competition on this club, the above roster is just a rough projection for 2010. The Pirates entered the 2009 season with a $48.7MM payroll. My rough estimate has their 2010 commitment at about half that, before arbitration raises for Cedeno, Duke, and Capps. The payroll should still fall under $30MM.
In my opinion, the Pirates are taking the right approach to rebuilding under GM Neal Huntington. Huntington has a clear long-term focus, and isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a trade that will help the team in the future. Gone from the team's Opening Day lineup: Nyjer Morgan, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, and John Grabow. Eric Hinske, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Burnett were also traded.
The game's best prospects are almost always off-limits, but the Pirates have added a variety of quality young players. Since they don't have veterans clogging up starting jobs and payroll, there's been an opportunity for players like McCutchen, Jones, and Ohlendorf to emerge. Based on his recent history it would not be surprising if Huntington is willing to listen on Doumit, Maholm, and Capps this winter and next summer.
It's a boring analysis, but expect the Pirates to stay on course by mostly avoiding the free agent market, remaining open to trade ideas, and spending on the draft. 2009 was a year of transition as the veterans were sent packing. The team will continue sorting through its inventory in 2010; competing in 2011 does not seem out of reach.
Nationals Aim To Improve Bullpen
As the worst team in baseball, the Nationals have many potential ways to improve for 2010. We've already heard about their craving for better middle infield defense and a veteran starting pitcher. Today MLB.com's Bill Ladson learned of GM Mike Rizzo's plan to revamp the team's bullpen for next year.
Rizzo considers the bullpen a "major point of emphasis for the offseason." Ladson notes the fine work of Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in 2009, but doesn't dig deeply into the Nats' plan for closer Mike MacDougal. It's been a strange year for MacDougal, who has 14 saves in 15 tries despite striking out only 25 and walking 32 in 44.6 innings. He did pitch legitimately well in August. MacDougal is under team control for 2010 as an arbitration-eligible player. Jeff Euston of Cot's Baseball Contracts suggested to me that he is in line for at least $3MM if the Nats tender him a contract.
Aside from the holdovers, Ladson believes Drew Storen could help the 2010 club. Storen was drafted tenth overall by the Nats in June and is on the fast track to the Majors.
Regarding the free agent market, I can't see why the Nationals would spend significant money. This year the Nats waited until March and signed Joe Beimel for a reasonable $2MM.
Ozzie Hopes To Have Kotsay Back
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen would like to have outfielder/first baseman Mark Kotsay back for the 2010 season, according to MLB.com's Jesse Temple. Kotsay had positive words about a possible return, but admitted, "It's just kind of early to speculate on what lies ahead."
Kotsay, 34 in December, has a .264/.312/.384 line in 139 plate appearances for the Red Sox and White Sox this year. He can play first base and all three outfield positions. Kotsay has performed better since coming to Chicago (with cash) for Brian Anderson on July 28th. He dealt with shoulder, back, and calf injuries with the Red Sox before being designated for assignment four days prior to the trade. He'd signed a $1.5MM free agent deal with Boston on January 8th.
Free Agent Market: First Basemen
The free agent market for first basemen is lacking a monster bat, but there are some interesting names.
- Nick Johnson is one of the game's best at getting on base. His .421 OBP this year in 496 plate appearances for the Nationals and Marlins ranks fourth in baseball. Johnson, however, is equally well-known for his lengthy injury history. He's the one true OBP threat of the group – next we have Adam LaRoche at .350 and Russell Branyan at .347.
- Branyan is the top power source, with a .520 SLG in a career-high 505 plate appearances. He's really scuffled since July though. LaRoche is next with a .479 SLG for the Pirates, Red Sox, and Braves. Hank Blalock has 471 innings at first base this year, so he's in the discussion with a .466 SLG. The .278 OBP negates much of that. In that small (inconclusive) defensive sample, Blalock rated well defensively according to UZR/150.
- Carlos Delgado's work in 2008 and '09 stands with all of the above players, but he's missed most of this year due to hip surgery. Aubrey Huff and Jason Giambi were effective in '08 but haven't impressed this year.
- You won't find any top defenders in this group, aside from Doug Mientkiewicz. Guys like Chad Tracy, Ross Gload, and LaRoche won't kill you.
- If you're looking for youth, Blalock, LaRoche, and Tracy are in the 29-30 range.
- There are no Type A free agents here. Huff, Delgado, Johnson, and Fernando Tatis project as Type Bs.
- Troy Glaus might be a dark horse, minor league deal option. But he has only played 38 innings at first base in his career.
- Johnson, Branyan, and LaRoche should get decent, perhaps even multiyear contracts. Delgado, Blalock, and Huff might also be able to snag starting jobs at first base or DH.
Borderline Type A/B Free Agents
Per Eddie Bajek's latest Elias rankings, the following players are eligible for free agency after the season and are teetering on the borderline of Type A and B status:
- Mark DeRosa
- Octavio Dotel
- Chone Figgins
- Brandon Lyon
- Placido Polanco
Figgins projects as a Type A at the moment, while the other four are currently Bs. The September performance of these players could push them in either direction. It's hard to say which will be offered arbitration, though Figgins is a lock.
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 6th, 2009. The rankings will change over the remainder of the season. Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.
Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.
Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals
The Royals are up next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their 2010 commitments:
C – John Buck – $2.9MM+
C – Brayan Pena – $405K
1B – Billy Butler – $421K
2B – Alberto Callaspo – $416K
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Alex Gordon – $457K+
IF/OF – Mark Teahen – $3.575MM+
IF/OF – Willie Bloomquist – $1.7MM
LF – David DeJesus – $4.7MM
CF – Mitch Maier – $401K
RF – Jose Guillen – $12MM
OF – Josh Anderson- $400K
DH – Mike Jacobs – $3.25MM+
SP – Zack Greinke – $7.25MM
SP – Gil Meche – $12MM
SP – Brian Bannister – $1.7375MM+
SP – Luke Hochevar – $1.325MM
SP – Kyle Davies – $1.3MM+
RP – Joakim Soria – $3MM
RP – Juan Cruz – $3.25MM
RP – Kyle Farnsworth – $4.5MM
RP – John Bale – $1.2MM+
RP – Doug Waechter – $640K+
RP – Robinson Tejeda – $437K+
RP – Roman Colon – $435K+
Options: Coco Crisp – $8MM club option with $500K buyout, Yasuhiko Yabuta – $4MM club option with $500K buyout, Miguel Olivo – $3.3MM mutual option with $100K buyout
Non-tender/trade candidates: Buck, Bale, Waechter, Colon, Jacobs, Teahen
Cot's Baseball Contracts says the Royals entered 2009 with a $70.5MM payroll. If the Royals non-tender or trade the six players I've listed as candidates, they'll have about $58MM committed before arbitration raises to Gordon, Bannister, Davies, and Tejeda. So let's put them in the low-$60MM range.
Crisp's $8MM option is a tough call; it seems slightly steep but the market for center fielders is weak. If exercised, the Royals won't have much to spend on their other needs unless payroll is raised. But should they be spending more money? I advocate using Pena plus a cheap free agent at catcher, promoting Kila Ka'aihue as a 1B/DH, and signing a reasonably priced reclamation project pitcher like Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, or Randy Johnson. The bullpen might be lousy again, but it's pricey enough as is.
My version of the 2010 Royals is probably not a contender unless everyone stays healthy and they get breakout seasons from Gordon and Hochevar and bounceback years from Guillen, Meche, Cruz, and others. Halfway through the season, if that's not happening, Dayton Moore should hold a fire sale and get what he can for Crisp, Guillen, Meche, Cruz, and Farnsworth. The current mix of cheap effective young players and overpaid, underperforming veterans is not a formula for success.
Heyman On Holliday, Red Sox, Pedro, Bradley
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman covers numerous examples of National League GMs mining the American League scrap heap.
- Heyman agrees with Jayson Stark's note yesterday, that the Yankees will allow Derek Jeter to enter his walk year unsigned and worry about it after the 2010 season.
- The Cardinals will try hard to retain Matt Holliday, but Heyman believes the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox could be in the mix for the slugger.
- Heyman discusses future shortstop possibilities for the Red Sox – they could retain Alex Gonzalez or go after Marco Scutaro. He says they "don't seem anxious" to bring Orlando Cabrera back.
- Pedro Martinez is looking good, and Heyman says only the Phillies and Rangers had real interest. The Cubs and Brewers were on the fringes.
- Heyman talked to two GMs about the Cubs and Milton Bradley. One thought the Cubs could unload him by eating half his remaining $21MM; another thought they'd need to assume almost all the money. I am not a Bradley apologist; he's certainly been a distraction. But how would subtracting a .394 OBP make the Cubs' middling offense better?
Cubs Acquire Thomas Diamond
1:32pm: The Cubs confirmed the acquisition via a press release. Diamond was simply claimed off waivers from the Rangers. He'll head to Triple A Iowa.
12:23pm: The Cubs acquired righty Thomas Diamond from the Rangers, MLBTR has learned. Diamond, the 10th overall pick in the 2004 draft, was designated for assignment Tuesday by Texas. He had Tommy John surgery in '07, and has struggled with his control since. Diamond has worked as a reliever most of this year.
Cubs assistant GM Randy Bush coached Diamond at the University of New Orleans, by the way.
Rangers Mulling Third Base Acquisition
In the wake of Michael Young's hamstring injury, the Rangers are "considering trade options at third base" according to Evan Grant of D Magazine in a Wednesday article. Young is aiming to return two weeks from now, so it'd be a short-term upgrade over the current Omar Vizquel/Esteban German combo. And if the Rangers do overcome their 3.5 game defecit in the AL West, the September acquisition would not be playoff-eligible.
Grant speculates on three potential acquisitions: Garrett Atkins, Melvin Mora, and Fernando Tatis. The problem is that the first two are being well-compensated for their lousy seasons, while Tatis hasn't played third base much in recent years. ESPN's Buster Olney finds a deal unlikely, but feels that Jamey Carroll might be a nice fit. One more idea: would a Troy Glaus trade be worth exploring?