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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Tim Dierkes | September 15, 2015 at 12:20pm CDT

Click here to read today’s impromptu hot stove chat with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.  We tested new chat software today; please let us know your thoughts in the comments of this post.

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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | September 14, 2015 at 10:50am CDT

Welcome to the last in-season addition of our 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  We’ve been moving these pieces around since February, and the list continues to change with several players surging.

These rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Even back in February, $200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price.  The 30-year-old was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his new team.  The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014.  That contract includes an opt-out that could allow Kershaw to begin a new contract with his age 31 campaign.  Since Price is already 30, agent Bo McKinnis may not need to push for such a clause.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s strong season has continued since we last checked in on August 6th.  Heyward gets on base, shows a touch of pop, and plays strong defense.  It’s a valuable package.  Since he turned 26 just last month, Heyward’s will be the rare free agent contract that includes mostly prime-age seasons.  An eight-year deal would only take him through his age 33 season.  As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted recently, an opt-out clause makes sense here.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton hit .266/.382/.539 in 152 plate appearances since we last checked in, putting his oblique and thumb injuries behind him.  Upton is one player where an opt-out clause seems especially valuable, because it still seems like he could take his game to another level.  He’s a 28-home run guy who could become a 35-40 type, and would benefit from the chance to re-enter the market after three seasons.  He could get a bigger deal at that point, since he recently turned 28.  That could work out for the team too — sign him to an eight-year deal this winter but only have to pay for age 28-30.

Jul 24, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Chris Davis (19) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports4.  Chris Davis.  Davis can’t be contained, with 14 home runs in 35 games since we last checked in.  He has 42 in all.  Davis is five months younger than Yoenis Cespedes, and I’m starting to think he has slightly more earning power.  It’s an interesting contrast.  Davis seems a better bet for additional 35+ homer seasons, yet his rough 2014 season is hard to completely write off.  Cespedes brings more defensive value, though his strong marks this year are out of the ordinary.  Davis strikes out more, but walks more too.  Both players will be vying for seven-year contracts with mid-$20MM salaries.

5.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes didn’t even crack my top ten in February, and now he’s ascended all the way up to fifth.  Even when the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Mets on July 31st, he didn’t seem a good bet to finish with 30 home runs.  Then he went and smacked 16 in 40 games for the Mets, and he now has an outside shot at 40 bombs.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal from December 2013 is a good benchmark for Cespedes, who should get more.  Cespedes’ contract was modified in September to allow the Mets to have a shot at retaining him.

6.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke ranked eighth on this list in February, when a five-year deal in the low-$100MM range seemed reasonable.  Sitting on an MLB-best 1.61 ERA through 29 starts, it’s time to seriously consider a six-year contract.  That’s a scary proposition, since he’s already 31, but the sixth year maximizes his total even if he backs off on the average annual value.  Greinke should be able to get past the six-year, $155MM contract signed by Jon Lester last winter.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon returned from an eight-week layoff on September 1st, having recovered from a groin injury.  He says he feels 100%, and is now serving as the Royals’ leadoff hitter.  Since he turns 32 in February, a six-year deal seems like the limit.  I wonder if he can push his average annual value up to $25MM, netting $150MM in total.

8.  Johnny Cueto.  In our May power rankings, I gave consideration to putting Cueto ahead of Price, second overall.  A July 26th trade from the Reds to the Royals seemed beneficial to Cueto, who became ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Cueto began his Royals stint with a 1.80 ERA over 30 innings, but since then, the wheels have come off.  He’s allowed 28 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings, including 48 hits of which eight left the park.  His ERA has risen a full run in that time, from 2.46 to 3.47.  Perhaps something is wrong physically; you may recall Cueto went 13 days between starts this summer due to a sore elbow.

This story isn’t complete yet.  Cueto has three regular season starts left, and the Royals are going to the Division Series.  Still, Cueto’s last five starts probably took a seven-year contract off the table, and now I’m wondering whether he’ll match Lester.

9.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has a 2.66 ERA in seven starts since we last checked in, in what’s become another typically strong season from the 29-year-old righty.  He seems on track to become the first Tommy John survivor to reach $100MM, and may actually pass $130MM on a six-year deal.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake’s hold on this spot has grown more tenuous, as the righty spent a few weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury.  Leake still has a shot at a five-year deal, as he doesn’t turn 28 until November.

Ian Desmond’s season has been all over the map: he was decent in May, very good in August, and lousy otherwise.  There’s no real trend except that it’s his worst season since 2011 despite 17 home runs and counting.  I imagine some kind of four-year deal is in order, but this one is hard to peg.

Ben Zobrist is finishing strong, hitting .323/.398/.516 since joining the Royals in a July 28th trade.  Since he turns 35 in May, a four-year deal will be the limit.  Even that will be risky – it’s not like Victor Martinez’s contract is looking good.

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2016 Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Exclusive Free Articles From MLBTR

By Tim Dierkes | August 19, 2015 at 10:45am CDT

If you’re like us, you’re already thinking ahead to this winter’s free agent class.  In this week’s newsletter, I examine three players who might surprise you with $100MM contracts this winter.  Sign up below now, and you’ll get the article later today!  There are no strings attached with the MLBTR Newsletter; just a free article every week. Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link to sign up.

I want more MLBTR!


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Astros Acquire Oliver Perez

By charliewilmoth and Tim Dierkes | August 8, 2015 at 8:56am CDT

The Astros announced they acquired veteran lefty reliever Oliver Perez from the Diamondbacks for minor league southpaw Junior Garcia.  Houston moved righty Sam Deduno to the 60-day DL to open a spot for Perez, while Arizona announced that it will select the contract of lefty Keith Hessler to take Perez’s place on its active roster.

USATSI_8562304_154513410_lowresPerez, 34 next week, has a 3.10 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, and 38.9% groundball rate in 29 innings for Arizona this year.  This year he’s faced an even number of lefty and righty hitters and has been more effective against left-handed batters, as you would expect.  Perez joins Tony Sipp as another lefty option out of Houston’s bullpen, which ranks second in the American League with a 2.70 ERA.  The Astros had designated lefty reliever Joe Thatcher for assignment on July 21st, though he remained in the organization on a minor league deal.

Perez spent his first nine seasons in the Majors as a starter for the Padres, Pirates, and Mets before beginning a bit of a career renaissance as a reliever for the Mariners.  He signed a two-year free agent deal with the Diamondbacks in March 2014 and will be a free agent after the season.

Garcia, 19, signed with the Astros out of the Dominican Republic for $200K late in 2012. He mostly pitched in the Gulf Coast League in 2014 and got good results, although he posted a 3.9 BB/9 for the season. He’s improved upon that mark in 2015 while pitching in the Appalachian League and the NY-Penn League, posting an 0.96 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. He’s so far from the Majors, though, that parsing his statistics probably misses the point. He’ll provide the Diamondbacks’ system with a bit of left-handed pitching depth and upside.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | August 6, 2015 at 11:16am CDT

The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, and many players’ free agent prospects were affected.  So far, the following free agents are among those no longer eligible for a qualifying offer due to a trade: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Gerardo Parra, and Dan Haren.  Yoenis Cespedes was already ineligible for a QO.

As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Price landed with the Blue Jays last week in a blockbuster trade, and has ascended to the top spot in these rankings.  His 2.45 ERA ranks fourth in the American League, and agent Bo McKinnis will have a case to exceed Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM deal from last offseason.  The present-day value of that deal was reported to be under $192MM due to deferred money.  Price represents a true ace at the top of his game, entering his age 30 season.  He might be the only free agent to top $200MM this winter.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s last 1500 plate appearances have established that he’s good for about 15 home runs per year.  He adds value in a lot of different ways, though, and a more analytical team might be more inclined to appreciate and pay for that.  While he might not be better than all the players listed below him, keep in mind Heyward turns 26 years old on Sunday.  Because of his age, Heyward is the player on this list with the best shot at an eight-year contract, which could still push him into the $180MM range.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton is the other free agent outfielder who figures to command a premium partly because of his youth.  Still, he’s hitting .189/.275/.311 since June, and he will require draft pick forfeiture unless the Padres trade him this month.  Upton has been hampered by oblique and thumb injuries since July 19th, and his contract year has not gone as planned.  He still may approach 30 home runs, though, and may be able to get a seven-year deal.

4.  Johnny Cueto.  As expected, Cueto was traded, and now he’ll try to lead the Royals to a championship.  Cueto’s ace-level talent is undeniable, but with a few blips on his health record, can he push into seven-year deal territory?  A seventh year could result in Cueto getting this winter’s second-biggest contract.  A strong finish will go a long way.

5.  Zack Greinke.  Since we last checked in on June 25th, Greinke has given up four earned runs.  He leads all of baseball with a 1.41 ERA, and no one else is under 2.00.  Greinke’s timing is fantastic, and even though he turns 32 in October, a six-year deal is looking more and more plausible.  Opting out of the three years and $71MM remaining on his Dodgers contract seems a mere formality.

6.  Yoenis Cespedes.  The Mets made a trade deadline splash by acquiring Cespedes.  He may threaten his career-high of 26 home runs, and he turns 30 in October.  With Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, there is precedent for Cespedes to get a seven-year deal.  Though he’s known for his power, Cespedes’ agent could try to push him as an elite defender as well based on his metrics this year.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon went down on July 8th with a groin injury, but he’s on the road to recovery.  I don’t believe the injury will affect his value much.  However, as a player who turns 32 in February, he seems limited to a six-year deal.  Given his strong on-base percentage and defense, there will be teams with Gordon atop their free agent outfielder rankings.

8.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has been solid, with a 3.54 ERA in 22 starts.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, and for the first time it looks like he’ll allow more than a hit per inning in a full season.  He’ll still be a great addition for a team with a strong defense.  The question is whether a team will commit a sixth year.

9.  Chris Davis.  Davis has bounced back from 2014 and has a reasonable shot at hitting 40 home runs this year.  Davis has 28 home runs now, with Upton, Cespedes, and Marlon Byrd next among free agents at 18.  Davis isn’t showing a platoon split in 2015, and he doesn’t turn 30 until March.  He’s again starting to look like a player who could exceed $100MM.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake is a new entrant on this list.  Just 28 in November, Leake has a 2.61 ERA since June.  With the trade to the Giants, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Leake is a durable, young mid-rotation arm, and I’m starting to wonder if he can snag a five-year deal in free agency.  For now, his durability holds off Scott Kazmir in terms of earning power.

Kazmir leads the American League in ERA right now, and won’t be getting a qualifying offer.  The southpaw, 32 in January, could find his way into our top ten if his success continues and his health holds up.  Still, it’s hard to crack the list without an expectation of a five-year deal, and I can’t picture that for Kazmir right now.

Jeff Samardzija, once seen as the list’s most likely trade candidate, has fallen out of our top ten.  His results continue to be middling for the White Sox, and now a qualifying offer seems likely.  Shark remains a durable, quality arm, but he might not be a lock for five years.

Nationals’ shortstop Ian Desmond also drops off the list.  His struggles have continued, and he may prefer to try to rebuild value with a one-year deal.  Those haven’t been en vogue lately, but can you picture any team giving Desmond four-plus years at a decent salary?

Other impending free agents to watch include Matt Wieters, Ben Zobrist, Yovani Gallardo, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mat Latos.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016 Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Old MLBTR Layout Available On Mobile Devices

By Tim Dierkes | August 3, 2015 at 10:56pm CDT

Back in April, we launched a new mobile version of MLBTR.  The change to mobile-friendly was made to improve load time and user experience, and also because Google basically required it.

In looking at your survey responses, I noticed that some readers preferred the old desktop-style, full post MLBTR format on their mobile devices.  Fortunately, we have a Desktop View button that brings back the old layout.  Just go to the MLBTradeRumors.com homepage on your mobile device, scroll all the way to the bottom, and tap the button that says Desktop:

desktopbutton

Your preference should be remembered the next time you visit.

(Side note: if you occasionally get the mobile version of MLBTR on a desktop computer, that’s a bug.  Please contact us if that happens).

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Red Sox Acquire Ryan Cook

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2015 at 3:19pm CDT

The Red Sox acquired reliever Ryan Cook from the Athletics, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  The A’s will receive a player to be named later, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.

Cook, 28, has pitched in the Majors for parts of five seasons with solid overall numbers.  Acquired by the A’s from the D’Backs in the December 2011 Trevor Cahill trade, Cook made the All-Star team in 2012 and saved 14 games.  However, he missed time with a shoulder injury and forearm strain last year, and was optioned to Triple-A out of spring training.  That’s where he’s spent most of this season, compiling a 4.05 ERA in 33 1/3 innings.  The Red Sox will potentially control Cook through 2018 as an arbitration eligible player.

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Athletics Boston Red Sox Newsstand Transactions Ryan Cook

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Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers In On Carlos Carrasco

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2015 at 2:31pm CDT

2:32pm: One executive tells Rosenthal that he does not expect a Carrasco trade (Twitter link).

2:12pm: The Dodgers are one of many to discuss Carrasco with the Tribe, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

1:03pm: Boston’s efforts are focused on Carrasco or Tyson Ross of the Padres, tweets Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.  Outfielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. could go in a deal.

7:36am: The Cubs are “among [the] teams engaged in ongoing dialogue” with the Indians about starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The Red Sox are in the market for controllable pitching, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, and they have also talked to the Indians about Carrasco.  Rosenthal says teams continue to call the Indians and make offers on the 28-year-old, who pitched a complete game last night.  Crasnick says the Tribe has been involved with a large number of teams on Carrasco.

Since rejoining the Indians’ rotation on August 10th of last year, Carrasco has been a new man, with a 3.07 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 0.64 HR/9 in 196 1/3 innings.  The Indians deftly signed him to a four-year extension in April, which could run through 2020 if both club options are exercised.  As he’s guaranteed only about $21MM through 2018, Carrasco is a very valuable commodity.

Prior to acquiring David Price, the Blue Jays were “close to a deal that fell apart near the finish line” for Carrasco, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.  According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the Jays offered Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman, and Dalton Pompey for Carrasco.  Interest will presumably be strong from teams looking for more than a rental starting pitcher, but not every team could spare the young players needed to pull off a deal.

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Latest On Aroldis Chapman

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2015 at 2:21pm CDT

The Reds are listening on flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman, an All-Star in each of the last four seasons.  The 27-year-old is under team control through 2016.  The latest:

  • A source tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the Astros are more likely to make a deal with the Reds than the Yankees (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks say their talks with the Reds for Chapman are now completely dead, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
  • It looks like the Diamondbacks are no longer in on Chapman, tweets MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.

Earlier Updates

  • Arizona’s offer for Chapman includes pitching prospect Braden Shipley and one or two more of their top ten, tweets Nightengale.
  • Nightengale says the Reds’ price tag on Chapman is high, but five teams are involved, three seriously.  He feels someone will meet the Reds’ demands.
  • The Reds now have stronger offers for Chapman than the one made by the Diamondbacks, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and Arizona is considered a long shot to acquire him.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports notes that while the Yankees have checked in, that’s not likely to happen either.  The Astros are another club that has been linked to Chapman, tweets Heyman.   Their interest goes to the ownership level, he adds.
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Marlins Seeking Controllable Pitching

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2015 at 2:01pm CDT

The latest on the Marlins, who have already shipped Dan Haren to the Cubs…

  • About eight teams are interested in Capps, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.
  • At least a dozen teams have checked in on Capps, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, and the reliever could very well move.  The Marlins are also getting calls on reliever Sam Dyson, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.

Earlier Updates

  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Marlins are looking for controllable young pitching, with names such as Tyson Ross of the Padres, Carlos Carrasco of the Indians, and Nate Karns of the Rays in play.
  • A number of teams are calling on recently-demoted outfielder Marcell Ozuna, tweets Frisaro.  The Marlins have no urgency to move the 24-year-old, who hit 23 home runs last year.
  • The Marlins are shopping for starting pitching today, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, in what he expects to be a busy day for the club.  Frisaro notes that Dan Haren is drawing interest from several teams.  Also, reliever Carter Capps was linked to the Yankees earlier.
  • Earlier this week, the Marlins sent impending free agent Mat Latos to the Dodgers in a 13-player deal, but the move seemed mostly about salary relief for Miami.  The assumption is the Fish are seeking young, controllable starting pitching, since both Latos and Haren will be eligible for free agency after the season.
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