Exploring January Free Agent Signings

The month of January isn’t typically a big month for free agent signings, but this year, it might almost have to be. An uncharacteristic number of big-name free agents are still available, including Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Wei-Yin Chen, Dexter Fowler, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Howie Kendrick, among others, remain available. By this point in the year, key free agents have usually already signed, but this winter, many teams will be doing their offseason shopping well after Christmas.

Too see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last five seasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains a bit of drama, and top free agents do sometimes wait to sign. None of the last five offseasons have seen the kind of free agent movement that seems likely in the coming weeks, however.

  • 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
  • 2014: This was the recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
  • 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
  • 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
  • 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero‘s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.

An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Davis, Chen and Kennedy.

The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. The qualifying offer could end up having a significant effect on the markets of a few current free agents, like Kennedy.

Still, those two factors do not explain the logjam of free agents currently on the market. Most of them (Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, Desmond and so on) are not Boras clients. And many free agents who might have been most affected by the qualifying offer (Marco Estrada, Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) either already signed or accepted their QOs.

In any case, this year’s free agent market figures to be considerably busier in January (or even later) than it typically is. In a recent column, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explored reasons why the market has been so slow. Some usual big spenders, like the Yankees and Angels, have been relatively quiet on the free agent market. In addition, the trade market has perhaps been a factor — recent deals involving Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller and Ken Giles, for example, have shown that the trade market has had plenty of good talent available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd implied last month, too, the signing of one of the many numerous bats available via free agency could lead to a run on the rest. In the meantime, though, a number of stars still need homes, so expect plenty of activity in the coming month.

Top Ten Remaining Free Agents

We’re now deep into the MLB offseason, and a number of the winter’s best free agents — David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke — are off the board. It has, however, been a quiet winter, at least in terms of the number of published reports, for many of the rest of the best players available. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently explored the reasons why, focusing on the qualifying offer, the lack of involvement in the market by some traditional big spenders (Yankees, Angels), the large number of rebuilding teams, and the robust trade market. Nonetheless, the free agent market is sure to pick up in the coming weeks. Here’s a look at the best ten free agents left, with their rankings from Tim Dierkes’ Top 50 free agents list from early November.

4. Justin Upton. Upton’s market has seemed quiet, with most recent news reports naming teams who aren’t likely to heavily pursue him (like the Angels, Cardinals and Giants). Upton’s agent met with the Orioles earlier this month (although their level of interest might be different now depending on their progress with Chris Davis and their deal with Hyun-soo Kim). The White Sox could perhaps enter the market for Upton.

5. Chris Davis. Davis has been most strongly connected with the Orioles, who made a significant offer earlier this month that they later rescinded (although without ruling out the possibility of future discussions). Beyond that, Davis’ market is unclear, not only from recent reports, but apparently also in the eyes of the Orioles themselves, who aren’t even sure who they’re bidding against.

6. Yoenis Cespedes. Like those of Upton and Davis, the rumor mill surrounding Cespedes has been relatively quiet. The Tigers reportedly have some interest, although perhaps only if Cespedes’ price drops. The Orioles have also been connected to Cespedes. The Mets have reportedly dropped out of the running.

9. Alex Gordon. The Royals have reportedly been told that there’s “no chance” they’ll re-sign Gordon if they don’t increase their offer, and recent comments from Arte Moreno seem to suggest that the Angels aren’t a likely destination either. The White Sox, however, have emerged as a possible suitor, and Gordon has been connected to a wide variety of teams this offseason.

10. Ian Desmond. It appears Desmond’s market has been slow to develop, which perhaps isn’t surprising given that he’s coming off a subpar season. The latest significant bits of news — and these are both over a week old — are that the Padres aren’t likely to make a large offer and that teams have at least some interest in using Desmond at second, third or outfield, even though he’s played shortstop almost exclusively in his big-league career.

13. Wei-Yin Chen. Many of the top pitchers in this year’s free agent market are off the board, with Chen as the top remaining name. The Dodgers might be a possibility, and the Nationals might as well. It’s unclear, however, whether any team will be willing to meet Chen’s reported five-year, $100MM asking price.

14. Kenta Maeda. On Christmas Day, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett tweeted that, according to a source in the Japanese media, Maeda visited Dodger Stadium on Thursday. That remains unconfirmed right now, but if in fact the Dodgers were close to signing Maeda, it would certainly make sense — the Dodgers figure to be in on most of the top starting pitchers remaining after having missed out on Greinke and other pitching targets. The deadline for Maeda to sign is January 8.

16. Dexter Fowler. The team to which Fowler has been most heavily connected lately has been the Giants, with another report mentioning the Royals as a possibility. One might think, though, that the market for second-tier outfielders like Fowler and Denard Span won’t come into focus until some of the bigger names come off the market, even though Fowler’s skill set as a full-time leadoff hitter and center fielder is somewhat different than those of Upton, Cespedes and Gordon.

18. Scott Kazmir. In contrast with a number of other big-name free agents, Kazmir’s name has popped up over and over this offseason. Lately, he’s been connected to the Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Athletics and Astros. He has apparently received offers of three years, but might be holding out hope for four. That could be a sticking point for some teams — the Orioles, for example, might not be willing to sign Kazmir to a four-year deal.

19. Ian Kennedy. Kennedy lately has been connected to the Royals and Marlins. At issue for Kennedy, of course, is that, in contrast with some other mid-tier options, signing him will result in the loss of a draft pick. Of course, the qualifying offer has not prevented pitchers like John Lackey, Jeff Samardzija and Hisashi Iwakuma from finding homes.

2015-16 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

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Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived!  The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR?  You can follow us on Twitter, download our free app for iOS and Android, listen to our podcast, and sign up for our free weekly newsletter.

This is the fifth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 3,469 people entered, with Carson Pennington taking home the batting title with 15 correct picks out of 49, a .306 average.  Mark Polishuk topped MLBTR writers with 14 correct.  The contest is back for 2016 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 13th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point.  A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive cash prizes.

This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own.  Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below.  Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra.  Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix.  We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power.  Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!

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2015-16 Free Agent Leaderboards

Free agency is just around the corner, which means it’s about that time for mass public speculation as to which players will end up with which team. Part of the fun of the offseason is, of course, playing GM from home and trying to figure out which players will either push your favorite club into contention or ensure that they stay in the thick of the playoff hunt next year. For those who enjoy playing GM — which, I assume, encompasses most regular MLBTR readers — I’ve created a set of Fangraphs leaderboards for this year’s class of free agents, as I did in both 2014 and 2013.

Fangraphs’ leaderboards will allow you to filter hitters both position and/or sort them by statistics. These lists can be sorted by everything from traditional stats like batting average, RBIs and homers; to sabermetric stats like wRC+, wOBA and baserunning runs above average; and batted-ball metrics like line-drive rate, homer-to-flyball ratio and hard-contact percentage. If you click the “Fielding” tab near the top of the page, you can check out sortable defensive metrics as well. On the pitching side of things, everything from ERA to FIP to swinging-strike rate to fastball velocity can be found. You can also set each leaderboard to include data from previous seasons to increase the sample size, or set minimums in plate appearances/innings pitched in order to narrow the field.

It should be noted that these leaderboard are sorted by Fangraphs’ version of wins above replacement and should not be confused with our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings (which, I might add, will be released in early November). Our Top 50 is a completely separate exercise; this is done solely to give our readers an easier tool to break down the upcoming free agent class. All that said, onto the leaderboards:

Free agent position player leaderboard

Free agent starting pitcher leaderboard

Free agent right-handed reliever leaderboard

Free agent left-handed reliever leaderboard

2015-16 MLB Free Agent Tracker Now Available

We’ve been obsessing over MLB free agency for nearly a decade here at MLB Trade Rumors, and this offseason is going to be a good one.  The market features unprecedented starting pitching, with David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto.  Sluggers Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton will be well-compensated, but Jason Heyward might top them all.  Everything you need to track all of the signings can be found in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker for the 2015-16 offseason.

We’ll be updating the free agent tracker quickly after signings this winter, and you can filter by team, position, signing status, qualifying offer, contract years and amount, and handedness.  Here’s the link again; let the roster-building begin!

By the way, you can catch all of the latest MLB news and rumors by following us on Twitter:


Which Top 2016 Free Agents Will Negotiate In-Season?

Last week we published my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings, an assessment of the earning power of players on track to reach free agency after the 2015 season.  Sometimes contract year players cut off extension negotiations at the start of the season, while others are willing to negotiate at any time.  Here’s the latest on where these top potential free agents stand.

1.  Justin UptonIn a December appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden, Upton’s agent Larry Reynolds indicated that he and his client did not want to negotiate during the season, and actually didn’t want to negotiate during Spring Training either.  So it looks like the Padres’ exclusive window to sign Upton to a new contract will only re-open after the season.  Padres position players are due to report to Spring Training today.

Key quote: “If anything were to happen, we’d probably want to do that before he packs up to go to Spring Training.” – Larry Reynolds, December 2014

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward was asked in January at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up whether he would have a reason to stop talking contract once the season started, and he replied, “At this point, I don’t.” (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporting).  According to Goold, the two sides had yet to discuss an extension at that point in January, though GM John Mozeliak did say he’d be interested in pursuing one.  Goold explained, “The Cardinals prefer to bring a player in, wrap him in red and then do what’s possible to keep him.”  As Goold notes, retaining Heyward would require the largest contract in franchise history, which is currently Matt Holliday‘s seven-year, $120MM deal from January 2010.

Key quote: “For me, I hope I love it so much I won’t have to leave.” – Jason Heyward, January 2015

3.  David Price.  Interest is mutual in a deal between the Tigers and Price.  In January, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported, the lefty said he’s open to anything, and GM Dave Dombrowski said, “We hope he stays a Tiger for a long time.”  Last Sunday in Lakeland, Price explained, “I’d probably rather not talk about it all year long.  But I don’t feel like closing any doors.  It doesn’t have to be cut off. I just don’t want to talk about it every day.” (Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting).  Price did say he wanted to avoid the situation Max Scherzer went through with the Tigers last spring, where the team released a statement on March 23rd about the pitcher rejecting their contract offer.

Key quote: “I would definitely welcome it.  If it’s right for both of us, I’m sure we can make it happen.” – David Price, February 2015

4.  Ian Desmond.  Desmond’s agent Doug Rogalski and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn’t have any significant extension talks during the offseason, reported MLB.com’s Bill Ladson yesterday.  According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, Desmond said he hasn’t thought about whether he would be open to talking about an extension during the season.  Desmond doesn’t seem likely to be extended by the Nationals, but in-season negotiations have not been explicitly ruled out.

Key quote: “I’ve kind of kept it to myself and my agent. And that’s the way I plan on going forward. I feel like we’ve got a lot of expectations in here, and to reach them we’ve got to be really focused. I’m not going to be the one that adds any extra distractions.” – Ian Desmond, February 2015

5.  Johnny Cueto.  In December, Cueto’s agent Bryce Dixon set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks with the Reds, in talking to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, so less than six weeks remain.  Dixon noted in that conversation that Lester is a better comp for Cueto than Homer Bailey, while Max Scherzer is the closest comp.  The two sides held preliminary talks at the Winter Meetings in December.

Key quote: “He wants to stay if the numbers are right.” – Bryce Dixon, December 2014 (MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reporting)

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann is willing to discuss a contract if the Nationals initiate talks this spring, but he does not want to negotiate in-season, reports Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com.  The pitcher said Saturday, “We negotiated a little bit and didn’t get very far,” also saying that he believes everything is on hold right now.

Key quote: “Once the season starts, I really don’t want to talk.  So if something happens in spring here, we’re willing to listen. But once the season starts, I don’t really want to talk about it.” – Jordan Zimmermann, February 2015

7.  Alex Gordon.  Talking to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star on Saturday, Gordon backed off his previous suggestion that he’ll pick up his $14MM player option for 2016, saying, “That’s a question that honestly doesn’t need to be answered right now.  Because I don’t know the answer right now. I don’t know how this year is going to go, or how it’s going to look at the end of the year.”  According to McCullough, Gordon indicated there were no ongoing negotiations, but he’s willing to discuss an extension at any point during the season.

Key quote: “I want to stay here.  Absolutely. It’s close to home. Kansas City almost feels like my hometown. We love the city. We love everybody in this organization. And obviously it’s in a good place right now. It’s come a long way. And I want to be a part of the success that I think we’re still going to have.” – Alex Gordon, February 2015

8.  Zack Greinke.  Last Thursday, Greinke told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick he won’t decide whether to opt out of his contract until after the season.  Greinke can become a free agent that way, or he can stick with the remaining three years and $71MM covering 2016-18.  Greinke told reporters he’s open to negotiating with the Dodgers, noting, “and I’m sure they’re open to me taking a cheap deal.”

Key quote: “It’s all to your benefit. If things are going good, you can use it for more power. There’s no negative to it.” – Zack Greinke on his opt-out, February 2015

9.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija’s agent Mark Rodgers joined Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier this month and said he and his client will listen to the White Sox anytime they want to talk.  At the Winter Meetings in December, Sox GM Rick Hahn expressed interest in extending his new acquisition.  On the radio show in February, though, Rodgers explained that a player needs to reach free agency to determine his true open market value.

Key quote: “To talk about what his value is in free agency a year early would really do him an injustice, because I think there’s more to come, better to come from Jeff.” – Mark Rodgers, February 2015

10.  Matt Wieters.  Back in December, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said there seems to be no urgency with Wieters’ camp or the Orioles to work out an extension.  Most of the talk lately about Wieters has been about whether he will be ready for Opening Day given his Tommy John surgery last June.  Since Wieters is a Scott Boras client, the chances of a deal getting done before free agency seem slim.

For some other names that could battle their way into the top ten in the coming months, check out my 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.  The 2015-16 class looks very strong, much better than the projected 2016-17 group.  But how many of the ten players listed here will actually reach the open market?  I feel that Heyward, Price, and Gordon have reasonable chances of signing extensions, while the other seven are likely to reach free agency.

2015-16 MLB Free Agents

Below is our list of players who have become free agents after the 2015 season (min. 50 PA or 20 IP in 2015).  Each player’s 2016 age is in parentheses.

If you see any errors or omissions, please contact us. To see who represents these players, check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Last updated 5-20-16

Catchers

Carlos Corporan (32)
Ryan Lavarnway (28)
Michael McKenry (31)

First Basemen

Jeff Baker (35)
Corey Hart (34)
Justin Morneau (35)
Mike Morse (34)

Second Basemen

Joaquin Arias (31)
Alberto Callaspo (33)
Elian Herrera (31)
Jonathan Herrera (31)
Dan Uggla (36)
Luis Yander La O (24)

Third Basemen

Joaquin Arias (31)
Alberto Callaspo (33)
Elian Herrera (31)
Luis Yander La O (24)

Shortstops

Joaquin Arias (31)

Left Fielders

David DeJesus (36)
Chris Denorfia (35)
John Mayberry, Jr. (32)
Mike Morse (34)
Delmon Young (30)

Center Fielders

Chris Denorfia (35)
Logan Schafer (29)

Right Fielders

David DeJesus (36)
Chris Denorfia (35)
John Mayberry, Jr. (32)
Alex Rios (35)
Grady Sizemore (33)
Delmon Young (30)

Designated Hitters

None

Starting Pitchers

Chad Billingsley (31)
Mark Buehrle (37)
John Danks (31)
Aaron Harang (38)
Josh Johnson (32)
Cliff Lee (37)
Eric Stults (36)
Jerome Williams (34)

Right-Handed Relievers

Burke Badenhop (33)
Brooks Brown (30)
Buddy Carlyle (38)
Carlos Contreras (25)
Justin De Fratus (28)
Jason Frasor (38)
Ernesto Frieri (30)
Greg Holland (30)
Casey Janssen (34)
Radhames Liz (32)
Ryan Mattheus (32)
Dale Thayer (35)

Left-Handed Relievers

Joe Beimel (39)
Randy Choate (40)
Sean Marshall (33)
Aaron Thompson (29)

Cot’s Baseball Contracts was used in the creation of this post.