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MLB Trade Rumors Turns 10

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Back in June 2005, I worked at a search engine marketing company in Chicago.  It was about the coolest job a kid fresh out of college could hope to have.  I remember being impressed that it was normal to be on the Internet all day at work, and that people communicated with each other using AOL Instant Messenger.  I had been at the company for about a year and it was a fun and interesting job.  I became friends with a consultant named Jeff, and naturally we chatted about baseball.  I had a lot of ideas, and he suggested I start a blog.  I barely knew what that was, but he had one.

So I fired up a free blog using Blogger.  The next day, I registered my own domain, rotoauthority.com, and soon moved to a more serious platform, TypePad.  RotoAuthority would be where I would write a bunch of fantasy baseball posts.  I was all over the forums promoting my blog, and I remember my future wife waiting patiently as I chalked the name of it all over the quad at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign when we visited our alma mater.  I also had the novel idea of mailing out packages of Big League Chew to baseball reporters I liked, to get RotoAuthority on their radar.  I sent out a bunch of them, to Peter Gammons, Jerry Crasnick, Rob Neyer, and the like.  Years later, Rob told me he chewed the gum immediately.

I mentioned to Jeff that I was thinking about naming my new company The Roto Authority, and he told me I should think bigger, I may want to start a second site at some point.  The 2005 MLB season was over, and I found myself writing a bunch of stuff on RotoAuthority that had only a loose connection to fantasy baseball, including my first-ever Top 50 Free Agents list.

I still thought RotoAuthority was my meal ticket to becoming self-employed, as I used it as a vehicle to sell self-created projection spreadsheets for $9.99.  I was also making a few bucks writing the Waiver Wired column for RotoWorld.  Nonetheless, I was drawn to all the rumors and deals of the 2005-06 MLB offseason, and wanted to write about Bobby Abreu, Billy Wagner, and Juan Pierre without the constraints of fantasy baseball.  So, so many posts about Juan Pierre.  So, ten years ago on this date, I registered a new site, mlbtraderumors.com, and wrote this post about the Yankees potentially pursuing Torii Hunter.  The site’s design looked like this.  Raise your hand if you remember it!

mlbtr-v1

MLB Trade Rumors quickly passed up RotoAuthority in traffic, and started to take up more of my time.  During busy times like the July trade deadline or the Winter Meetings, our posts went viral in an old school way, with links on forums and perhaps carrier pigeons.  It certainly wasn’t succeeding because of my journalistic integrity.  In the early years of MLBTR I was completely naive about the hard work and years of trust-building that goes into getting most baseball scoops.  So, if someone emailed about having the same barber as Octavio Dotel and therefore knowing where he might sign, I believed it and printed it.

A major turning point came during the 2007 Winter Meetings.  Someone pretended to be a Mets beat reporter (one I knew of but had not interacted with) and sent me a whopper of a trade rumor.  He was happy to let me write an exclusive post on MLBTR about the potential three-team deal sending Johan Santana and Bobby Crosby to the Mets, Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey to the A’s, and Dan Haren to the Twins.  I was not present at those Winter Meetings, but this bogus rumor spread like wildfire after I posted it, and of course was shot down.

Shot down is an understatement, actually.  Here are the choice quotes from A’s GM Billy Beane:

“There’s a better chance of me breeding unicorns than there is of that deal happening.” – ESPN

“It’s ridiculous.  All-time most ridiculous. Of all the trade rumors the whole time I’ve been coming here, because of the genesis and how quickly it went around, that was the finest, or the worst, whatever you like.” – San Francisco Chronicle

“I’m on the bike, and (Zaidi) is on the treadmill, and he figures out a way to get on the Internet, and he says, ’Hey look at this.’  Of all the trade rumors in all my career, that one’s the furthest from the truth.” – Contra Costa Times

I was mortified at what I’d done and that it was on Beane’s radar to that degree.  I finally realized that I had to take sourcing much more seriously, and also stop worrying about trying to break stories.

Soon after, I quit my job to focus on MLBTR full-time.  A parade of great writers and friends joined me on our team and helped make the site better each year.  The core of what we do hasn’t really changed since 2008.  We collect, organize, and analyze everything related to MLB transactions in a timely manner, filtering out anything lacking in credibility.  The format and means of sharing the information have changed, but the idea remains the same.

Thank you for indulging my trip down memory lane.  I am forever grateful for the opportunity to run MLBTR for a living, and I don’t intend to stop anytime soon.  I would like to express my gratitude to our many contributors over the years, and to the journalists on the beat.  And of course, thanks to our readers, whether you were here for the black background days or you just discovered the site this week.  Here’s to the next ten years!

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs’ primary offseason goal is to add an impact starting pitcher.  They will also address center field, consider trades for surplus position players, and explore an extension for Jake Arrieta.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $125MM through 2020; mutual option for 2021
  • Starlin Castro, 2B/SS: $38MM through 2019; club option for 2020
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $32MM through 2019; club options for 2020 and 2021
  • Miguel Montero, C: $28MM through 2017
  • Jorge Soler, RF: $18MM through 2020; may opt into arbitration after 2017
  • Jason Hammel, SP: $11MM through 2016; club option for 2017 that may become void based on ’16 performance
  • David Ross, C: $2.25MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

MLB: NLDS-Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsExpectations have been raised for the 2016 Cubs, after the club reached the NLCS for the first time in 12 years.  The team’s position player core has the potential to be in place for at least five more years.  Jorge Soler is under team control through 2020, while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez are under control through 2021.  At 26 years old, Rizzo is the elder statesman of the group.  Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Baez are years from arbitration, and Soler ($3MM) and Rizzo ($5MM) are also very cheap.  Theo Epstein and company have assembled something special and have lined the players up for sustained success.

Bryant’s rookie season defense suggests he’ll remain mostly at third base next year, although manager Joe Maddon dabbled with him at each outfield position and may continue to do so.  Rizzo is locked in at first base.  The veteran tandem of Montero and Ross will return at catcher.

The Cubs have a middle infield surplus.  Russell will remain the starting shortstop, so the question is what to do with Baez and Castro.  Both players were acquired under the Jim Hendry front office, though Epstein’s group brokered the extension with Castro in the summer of 2012.  Castro’s 2015 season was near replacement level, and he lost the starting shortstop job to Russell in August.  Partially because of an injury to Soler that forced Chris Coghlan back to the outfield, Castro became the starting second baseman in September and had a blistering month.  He continued in that role throughout the playoffs.

Castro won’t turn 26 until March, and he’s an enigma.  He tallied 529 hits from age 20-22, joining Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders to accomplish that feat in baseball history.  Since then he’s had replacement level seasons in 2013 and ’15, sandwiching a solid 2014.  The Cubs prefer Russell and Baez over Castro as defensive shortstops, so it’s unclear whether another team would install Castro at short.  He did show pretty well at second base late in the year.

If Castro became a free agent right now and demanded a four-year deal with a club option, I think he could get $38MM or a bit more.  So perhaps the Cubs could move him without eating salary, though they wouldn’t get a player back with much surplus value.  The Mets, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees could be potential trade partners for the Cubs, who would presumably look to add starting pitching.  Most of those teams have pitching depth, and the Cubs could look to add to their bullpen as well.

Baez, who turns 23 in December and comes with six years of control, is also a trade candidate.  He was able to cut his strikeout rate a bit in Triple-A this year, while dealing with the tragic passing of his sister as well as a broken finger.  Baez’s star potential gives him much more trade value than Castro, and it would be risky for the Cubs to move him.  The flip side of that is that making him available opens the door to controllable upper-tier arms like Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross, pitchers the Cubs pursued in July.  All in all, Castro is more likely to be dealt than Baez this winter, yet there is a reasonable chance the club enters the season with both and delays the trade decision.  Baez could serve as the team’s backup infielder to start the season.

Schwarber’s bat is well ahead of his glove.  He joined the Cubs in mid-June and clubbed 21 home runs in 304 plate appearances, including his postseason onslaught.  The plan remains the same for 2016: bring him along as a catcher when possible, while keeping his bat in the lineup as the left fielder.  Trading Schwarber at this point in his career would be an extremely bold move that I don’t anticipate the Cubs making.  Trading Chris Coghlan is a safer alternative.  He and Schwarber both bat left-handed, so they can’t form a left field platoon.  Coghlan remains affordable in his final year of team control, and he hit .264/.355/.476 against right-handed pitching this year.  I’m reminded of Seth Smith, who was traded to the Padres for Luke Gregerson two years ago.  The Angels, Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and White Sox could be potential trade partners for Coghlan.

Though he’s cut from the same cloth as Baez, the Cubs could consider trading Soler for controllable pitching.  Soler posted a replacement level rookie season, with poor defense and a 30% strikeout rate.  His 112 total games played marked a pro career high.  Still, Soler flashed All-Star potential in the playoffs.  Like Baez, the safe move here is to retain Soler and see what he becomes.

With Schwarber and Soler penciled in at the outfield corners, center field is the Cubs’ clearest position of need.  Coming off the healthiest season of his career, Dexter Fowler is due a qualifying offer and perhaps a four-year contract in the $60MM range.  While the Cubs have the capacity to sign him, they may acknowledge that a four-year deal wouldn’t provide good value.  If Denard Span does not receive a qualifying offer and the Cubs aren’t scared off by his September hip surgery, he could be a cheaper replacement on a shorter term.  The Cubs have 2012 first-rounder Albert Almora working his way up the minor leagues, so a shorter-term investment makes sense.  Bringing Austin Jackson back is an option, or the Cubs could look into a trade for the Yankees’ Brett Gardner.  Epstein has named outfield defense as an area of improvement, which could mean exploring trades for players like Leonys Martin or Juan Lagares.

Despite some decisions to be made on the position player side, the Cubs’ offseason focus will be on their rotation.   The group is currently fronted by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  After the season, Epstein spoke of his desire to add “impact pitching,” as well as big league depth.  He seems open to the “necessary evil” of free agency, and this year’s class is stacked with David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Jeff Samardzija could also be considered a potential impact arm.  Then there’s John Lackey, who Epstein signed as Red Sox GM six years ago. Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Lackey would likely require the Cubs to forfeit their first-round draft pick.  The Cubs could make trade attempts for Carrasco, Ross, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, or Stephen Strasburg, though some of them will be off-limits and they come with varying amounts of team control.  In the end, expect the Cubs to come away with someone they’re comfortable starting in the first three games of a playoff series.

Hammel and Hendricks can capably fill out the back of the Cubs’ rotation.  Hendricks, 26 in December, won’t reach arbitration until after the 2017 season, and the Cubs could include him as part of a trade for a better pitcher like Ross.  Epstein’s mention of depth is important, as the club avoided major injuries in 2015.  They need to safeguard against possible injuries in 2016, especially with ace Jake Arrieta reaching 248 2/3 frames.  That means starting the year with at least six capable options.  Travis Wood could be stretched out if needed, but the Cubs should probably add two starters.

The Cubs assembled an interesting collection of relievers by the time the playoffs started, with a surprisingly heavy reliance on failed starters Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Clayton Richard along with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm.  Wood’s past as a starter will drive his arbitration price up to more than you’d like to pay, but he posted a 2.95 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in regular season relief and should be retained.  It’s unclear whether Cahill, 28 in March, will embrace a relief role as a free agent.  He was very good in that role for 22 1/3 innings after joining the Cubs, and the team should find a way to bring him back.

Perhaps in the new year, the Cubs will explore an extension for Arrieta.  A big factor is who they are able to acquire – if it’s David Price on a seven-year deal, the Cubs would seem unlikely to make Arrieta their third long-term $25MM+ pitcher.  If it’s two years of Tyson Ross, maybe there’s room for a huge deal for Arrieta.  We project Arrieta to make a big leap to a $10.6MM salary in arbitration for 2016, and then he’d be due another raise for 2017.  Signing him now could allow the Cubs to temper those two arbitration salaries, but it would be a question of how many years the pitcher would need on top.  Arrieta’s projected free agency begins with his age 32 season, and Scott Boras is his agent.  Zack Greinke’s new deal will also begin with his age 32 season.  Whatever Greinke gets for his free agent years, Boras will expect the same.  That could be $150MM over five years, $160MM over six, or something else, but we should know by January.  The Cubs have to ask the hard question of whether giving Arrieta ace money through age 36 or 37 is prudent, when they already control his age 30 and 31 seasons.

If the Cubs are already looking at $185MM or so over seven years to lock Arrieta up in January 2016, how much higher would the price be in January 2017?  Can the Cubs wait this year out to see how Arrieta’s arm holds up after all the added innings, or will the window to extend him be mostly closed by that point?  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Cubs could at least gain cost certainty by signing Arrieta to a two-year deal.

In 2015, Joe Maddon’s Cubs got close enough to taste their first World Series in 70 years before running into the Mets buzzsaw in the NLCS.  The Cubs were playing with house money with a lot of fans this year, as many perceived this club to be a year early.  Now, the team will hike ticket prices and add to the payroll to assemble a playoff-caliber rotation to complement their exciting young position players.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters

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Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles.  After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore OriolesStrengths/Pros

Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher.  In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85.  Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100.  He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse.  He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13.  Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.

Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases.  The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13.  The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons.  Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches.  He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.

As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling.  The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated.  In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength.  He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.

Weaknesses/Cons

From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball.  The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years.  Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year.  Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL.  His season debut came on June 5th.

From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games.  He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September.  Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles.  As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year.   He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann.  In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.

Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size.  He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds.  Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself).  One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.

Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers.  The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches.  He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well.  Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases.  He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would  have ranked eighth among qualifiers.

I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.

Personal

Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason.  According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta.  Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.”  Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt.  He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.

Market

Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer.  I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts.  But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first?  If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March.  In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”

If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles.  Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had.  Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros.  Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks.  The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out.  The Braves are a legitimate match.  Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech.  Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt.  The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.

The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit.  They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras.  Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer.  Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse.  The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.

Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.

Expected Contract

I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM.  I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.

Seeking Android App Testers

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MLBTR is seeking people to test out our Android app, Trade Rumors.  This free app has been available in the Play Store for a year now, but our upcoming release adds the ability to read and leave comments on the posts.  We’re looking for people specifically to test the commenting feature.  Also, it might be best if you’ve already been using the app for a while.

If you’d like to help out and test the new commenting feature within the app, please email us at mlbtrandroid@gmail.com.

Free Agent Profile: Justin Upton

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Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.

Strengths/Pros

Justin UptonUpton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling.  According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old.  After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short.  Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002.  Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.

Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27.  Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame.  Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball.  Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO.  Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come.  Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.

I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders.  Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders.  He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11.  Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.

As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28.  The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus.  Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.

Weaknesses/Cons

Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him.  He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago.  Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more.  Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years.  You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year.  Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.

Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game.  He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often.  Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.

Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average.  Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year.  I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.

Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.  This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.

Personal

Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife.  Justin grew up in a baseball family.  His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02.  Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez.  It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19.  Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013.  He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior.  Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.

Market

Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres.  The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis.  The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner.  The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract.  The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player.  The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013.  I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago.  I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center.   It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so.  The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year.  Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.

The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching.  Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room.  The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter.  The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter.  The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.

The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player.  The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs.  The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners.  The Cubs also have more of a need at center field.  The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.

Expected Contract

Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton.  Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point.  If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.

Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value.  Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV.  Something in the $20-22MM range could work.  The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total.  I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Try The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis

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Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.

Strengths/Pros

Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game.  He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013.  He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball.  Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012.  A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching.  From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers.  Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.

Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime.  Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter.  Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.

Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman.  He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years.  He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.

Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes.  Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014.  He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.

Weaknesses/Cons

All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect.  Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%.  Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012.  Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players.  So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.

With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption.  Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season.  Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well.  So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.

Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year.  Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year.  The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again?  If so, how soon?”  Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi.  It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.

Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.

Personal

Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason.  Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham.  ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron.  The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season.  After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year.  Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.

Market

The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid.  The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits.  There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play.  A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch.  Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position.  Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.

Expected Contract

Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo.  Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis.  Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency.  With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years.  It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well.  I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.

2015-16 MLB Free Agent Tracker Now Available

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We’ve been obsessing over MLB free agency for nearly a decade here at MLB Trade Rumors, and this offseason is going to be a good one.  The market features unprecedented starting pitching, with David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto.  Sluggers Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton will be well-compensated, but Jason Heyward might top them all.  Everything you need to track all of the signings can be found in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker for the 2015-16 offseason.

We’ll be updating the free agent tracker quickly after signings this winter, and you can filter by team, position, signing status, qualifying offer, contract years and amount, and handedness.  Here’s the link again; let the roster-building begin!

By the way, you can catch all of the latest MLB news and rumors by following us on Twitter:


Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

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In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled.  How many will fall this offseason, with nine potential $100MM free agents?  Here’s our list of the largest contracts for each of the 30 teams.  If you’d like a trip down memory lane, each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Another active offseason is in store for the White Sox, who find themselves with needs all over the diamond.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

I have difficulty criticizing Rick Hahn’s active 2014-15 offseason, as I was a fan of his moves and thought the White Sox would contend this year.  However, major acquisitions Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija bombed.  To compound matters, position players Avisail Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Alexei Ramirez were brutal as well.  It’s almost freakish that so many players performed below expectations in the same year, and the result was an 86-loss season.  That came on the heels of 89 losses in 2014 and 99 losses in 2013.

This team seems in too deep to blow it all up, plus they’ve still got a strong, affordable core.  Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton generated about 18 wins above replacement in 2015, and will cost less than $30MM in 2016.  That remains a fantastic bargain, so GM Rick Hahn needs to take another shot at complementing his core with the right veterans.

So, what can be done about baseball’s worst collection of position players, by measure of wins above replacement?  Starting behind the dish, WAR doesn’t do Tyler Flowers justice, as he’s worked himself into one of the game’s best pitch framers.  With so much work to do elsewhere on the diamond, retaining Flowers is a reasonable starting point.  Geovany Soto, a minor league signing who worked out well, could be re-signed early in the offseason.

I don’t see much point in trying to sell low on Cabrera.  This might be grasping at straws, but he at least showed signs of life in July, and the best bet for 2016 is to hope he can bounce back and supply a two-win season at age 31.  Given Cabrera’s consistently poor defense, the team would be improved by having him spend the majority of his time at designated hitter.  Abreu’s defense at first base is no longer a liability, and the team could reduce his DH games to 25 or so.

This alignment leaves LaRoche without a starting spot on the 2016 club.  Hahn can spend the next few months searching for an interesting bad contract swap or a salary dump partner, and then release him if those efforts come up empty.

Though Avisail Garcia is only 24, it’s time to try someone else in right field.  Hahn says he’s still confident in Garcia, but the team can’t afford another replacement level season as they hope for him to develop.  Garcia should be shopped to rebuilding clubs for something useful this winter, and sent to Triple-A if no good offers come in.  2015 rookie Trayce Thompson is actually three months older than Garcia, but could land a starting outfield spot on the strength of a strong 135-plate appearance debut.  It’s a red flag, however, that Thompson hit .260/.304/.441 at Triple-A.  In a perfect world, he’d be penciled in for a fourth outfielder role next year.

The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out.  The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon.  All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season.  There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources.  There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, and Colby Rasmus.  The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.  Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K.  He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.

So outfield is wide open and in need of multiple acquisitions.  The infield picture isn’t much better for the White Sox.  The big question is whether to choose a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez.  Ramirez’s improved second half suggests he might have another two-win season left in him, but at age 34 picking up his option would definitely be a gamble.  I think the $9MM net price is only slightly above Ramirez’s market value, but the White Sox might not want to tie up that much payroll space in him.

There’s the idea of using 2015 rookie Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, though that’s a poor win-now plan.  The free agent market offers Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins.  Though Desmond himself had an off-year, I still see him pushing for a four or five-year contract, so I don’t see him as a fit for the Sox.  A crosstown swap for Starlin Castro makes some sense.  Castro, 26 in March, is signed through 2019 but could spend a few months at shortstop until Anderson is ready and then settle in as an above average second baseman.  However, the Cubs may still like him for that role.  In that case, Javier Baez could be a target.

Third base is another question mark for the White Sox.  Saladino, Mike Olt, and Matt Davidson are in-house options.  Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well.  Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, and Luis Valbuena.  One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.

This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson.  It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips and Neil Walker looking like trade candidates.  One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility.  However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter.  Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.

Once again, Sale and Quintana are locked in atop Chicago’s rotation, a duo that provided 415 strong innings this year.  Danks’ contract makes him likely to hang around as the fifth starter.  Rodon, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2014, joined the big league rotation on May 9th and recorded a 3.79 ERA in 23 starts.  His control needs improvement, but it was a solid rookie effort.  Samardzija isn’t likely to return, but making a qualifying offer is an easy decision.  The Sox could replace Samardzija in-house with some combination of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.

Hahn probably won’t address all of his team’s needs through free agency, and it’s possible he’ll deal from the team’s pitching depth to acquire a position player.  Assuming Sale remains off-limits, Quintana will be a popular target for other teams.  Only a handful of position players would justify surrendering five affordable years of control of Quintana, Puig among them.  I think Hahn is more likely to deal from his stash of unproven but mostly MLB-ready arms.  It’s possible the team could add a low-level veteran starting pitcher in free agency if they compromise their rotation depth.

Hahn’s retooled bullpen was above average in 2015.  There’s reason for further optimism in 2016.  Robertson is better than his 3.41 ERA, and the Sox will enjoy a full season from Nate Jones.  I imagine they’ll try to re-sign Albers, who came on a minor league deal and had a quality season despite missing three months in the middle with a broken finger.

Earlier this month, Hahn told reporters the team will be retaining Robin Ventura as manager for 2016.  Given the way Ventura’s last three seasons have gone, however, he will likely be on a short leash entering the new season.  Before then, expect plenty of offseason action for the White Sox, who have a laundry list of needs to address if they are to return to contention in 2016.

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