2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

The 2015-16 MLB free agent class is winding down, and it’s time to turn our attention to the 2016-17 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2016 season, unless they sign contract extensions first.  Extensions seem unlikely for the top names.  Players may be reluctant to sign now, as the 2016-17 class appears weak.  MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.

MLBTR 2017 Power Rankings (vertical)

1.  Stephen Strasburg.  The first overall pick in the 2009 draft, Strasburg has been very good in his Nationals career but hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.  One could draw a parallel with one of last winter’s top free agents, Justin Upton.  Of course, it’s different with pitchers, and over the years Strasburg’s only limitation has been health.  After tying for the NL lead in strikeouts in 2014, shoulder, neck, back, and oblique issues limited Strasburg to 23 big league starts in 2015.  After the season, he had a “small, non-cancerous growth removed from his back,” wrote James Wagner of the Washington Post.  Strasburg also has Tommy John surgery in his health history, with the procedure performed in September 2010.  Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, enjoys a well-known cozy relationship with the Nationals.  The team generated controversy in 2012 when Strasburg was shut down at 159 1/3 innings with the team headed to the playoffs, a decision unsurprisingly supported by Boras.  Now, if Strasburg can muster up his second career 200-inning season along with his typical dominance, Boras will seek to shatter David Price‘s record contract for starting pitchers, which was for seven years and $217MM with the Red Sox.  As with Price, opt-out clauses will factor heavily into the discussion.  Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July, so he’ll be about two years younger than Price was.

2.  Carlos Gomez.  Gomez took big steps forward after being traded to the Brewers in November 2009, and posted a career-best 19 home runs in 2012.  In the spring of 2013, with free agency looming after the season, Gomez signed a surprising three-year extension with Milwaukee.  He went on to put up monster seasons in 2013 and ’14, but was derailed in 2015 with hamstring and hip issues.  A near-trade to the Mets fell apart in July when New York backed out for various reasons, but he was successfully traded to the Astros the following day.  Similar to Strasburg, a healthy season will go a long way for Gomez, who is also represented by Boras.  The center fielder could land a deal north of $150MM if he returns to his 2014 level of health and production.

3.  Yoenis Cespedes.  I predicted a six-year, $140MM deal for Cespedes, who reached free agency after the 2015 season.  Instead, the 30-year-old slugger turned down multiple five-year offers and returned to the Mets in late January on an interesting high-AAV contract.  Cespedes signed a three-year, $75MM deal, with an opt out after 2016.  If exercised, Cespedes will have earned a hefty $27.5MM for the ’16 season.  If he does opt out, perhaps Cespedes will be coming off a season good enough to ease whatever concerns plagued him this winter, and he can snag that six-year deal in the end.  It’s a weaker market for sluggers, as Bautista and Encarnacion are considerably older.

4.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista, 36 in October, crushed 75 home runs over the last two seasons for the Blue Jays.  He’s a late bloomer, having broken out with the Jays in 2010 at age 29 with 54 home runs.  While extension talks with Toronto have occurred, Bautista stated in February that he’s “not willing to negotiate” from his asking price, which reports suggest could be five or six years at around $30MM per season.  Right now I’m penciling him in for four years and $120MM.  Some teams will draw a hard line because of Bautista’s age, but it’s certainly possible for one to throw caution out the window.

5.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Bautista’s teammate has been prolific in his own right, with 151 bombs over the last four years.  He’ll turn 34 prior to the 2017 season, so age is a big factor here as well.  Talks with the Jays have stalled over contract length, and you have to think Encarnacion expects at least four years.  I could see something like four years and $100MM, though he’d have a good argument for five years if Bautista gets that many first.  Encarnacion is more limited in the field, as a DH/first baseman.

6.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick doesn’t carry the same health or age concerns as the other outfielders on this list.  He recently turned 29, and he played in 149 games last year.  Reddick has evolved as a hitter, dropping his strikeout rate to 11.2% last year.  He’s got 20 home run pop and a good defensive reputation, if not the numbers to back up the latter in recent years.  He could be a candidate for a surprising five-year deal approaching $100MM.  The A’s are at least exploring an extension.

7.  Andrew Cashner.  You might be surprised to see Cashner this high on the list.  Indeed, his position is tenuous.  But in a free agent market starved for starting pitching, Cashner is the type you can dream on.  A former 2008 first rounder, Cashner averaged a blazing 94.8 miles per hour on his fastball last year.  That ranked sixth in baseball among those with 180 innings.  On the other hand, it was Cashner’s first time reaching that innings plateau, and he served up a 4.34 ERA for San Diego.  The team chose to hold onto him over the winter, perhaps sensing his value could rise in his contract year.  If Ian Kennedy can get five years and $70MM plus an opt-out clause, Cashner could do well in a free agent market for starting pitching that looks much, much worse.

8.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen, 29 in September, may be the game’s best reliever.  The Dodgers’ closer boasts massive strikeout rates, and he added a career-best walk rate last year.  Jansen is practically unhittable, and he doesn’t come with the off-field baggage Chapman does.  Jonathan Papelbon‘s record four-year, $50MM contract for relievers could fall, as it’s possible Jansen could land a five-year deal.

9.  Adrian Beltre.  Though he’s represented by Boras, Beltre stands a fair chance of reaching an extension with the Rangers.  The third baseman will turn 37 soon, but a three-year deal would be a fair request.  I could see three years and $60MM or more.  Though Beltre is winding down a potential Hall of Fame career, he remains a potent hitter and strong defender.

10.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman is right there with Jansen in terms of relief dominance, regularly punching out at least 42% of batters faced.  The 28-year-old is the hardest-throwing pitcher alive, averaging 99.5 miles per hour on his fastball last year and over 100 the year before.  However, his upcoming free agency is clouded by an incident that occurred at his home last October.  In a police report uncovered by Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Chapman reportedly pushed and choked his girlfriend and fired a gun repeatedly in his garage.  Chapman denies harming his girlfriend, but chose not to appeal the 30-game suspension handed down by MLB as part of its domestic violence policy.  Even if Chapman avoids further incidents as a member of the Yankees, this one will affect his free agency after the season.  Every interested team will conduct due diligence, and perhaps several will emerge with enough comfort to offer Chapman a large four-year deal.  At this point, it’s difficult to say.

In the 2015-16 offseason, ten free agents signed for at least $80MM, seven of whom were pitchers.  This year, only Strasburg seems likely to reach $80MM, highlighting the lack of depth in starting pitching in the 2016-17 market.  After Cashner, there’s names like Jesse Chavez, Jorge de la Rosa, Ivan Nova, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, and Brett Anderson.  James Shields and Scott Kazmir each have the ability to opt out of their current contracts and join the market, though it’s unclear whether either will find that worthwhile.  On the relief side, Mark Melancon is a high quality arm likely to land in our top 20.

There are a few interesting position players who did not make my initial top ten: Justin Turner, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Wieters, and Neil Walker.  Ian Desmond and Colby Rasmus will find themselves back on the market again, barring extensions.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 21-year-old phenom pitcher Shohei Otani after this season, but if they do it would shake up the MLB free agent market.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Cubs added tons of veteran talent to an already-strong team, mostly through free agency.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, it was no secret that the Cubs had a middle infield surplus with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Starlin Castro.  With four years and $38MM remaining on his contract, Castro was the most likely to go.  The Yankees were a natural match, having shown interest in Castro during the summer.  As Yankees GM Brian Cashman told John Harper of the New York Daily News, the Cubs initially asked for outfielder Brett Gardner and were rebuffed.  Then, after a month of the Cubs pestering Cashman for swingman Adam Warren, the Yankees gave in and the trade agreement was reached.  Still, the Castro trade was delayed for a few days, as the Cubs were simultaneously attempting to sign Ben Zobrist as a free agent.

The Cubs achieved Theo Epstein’s “multiple-bank shot,” moving on from Castro after six big league seasons.  I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization.  Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs went with veteran Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May.  Zobrist served as Joe Maddon‘s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after establishing himself in the Majors with the Rays.  While Zobrist may not be the defensive asset he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player.  The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14MM a year, despite the riskiness of signing a player through age 38.  He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s deal is covered.  The Cubs can rest assured that competition was stiff for Zobrist, with the Mets and Giants willing to go to $60MM and the Nationals making a play.

With the addition of Warren, the Cubs proved that Castro did indeed have mild positive trade value despite the middle infielder’s contract and up-and-down career.  In Warren, the Cubs received a useful pitcher who is under club control for three years.  The 28-year-old can serve as an effective reliever or credible fifth starter depending on the Cubs’ needs.

The Cubs’ primary offseason need was to add an impact starting pitcher.  Though Epstein later told WEEI the Cubs were “very interested” in the best available option, free agent David Price, the Cubs’ president also admitted, “We ended up a distant third” in the bidding.  Shortly after Price’s agreement with the Red Sox, the Cubs reached an agreement 37-year-old veteran starter John Lackey on a two-year deal.  Epstein had previously signed Lackey as Red Sox GM six years prior.  As Epstein explained in that same WEEI interview, “There’s risk inherent in longer pitching contracts, and having a pitcher the caliber of John Lackey on a two-year deal was a no-brainer for us.”  I thought Lackey would command a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying offer attached, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

By the Winter Meetings, the Cubs had made significant improvements to an already-strong club, without surrendering prospects or adding a major financial burden (at least for a big-market team).  Soon, it became apparent the Cubs’ biggest move was yet to come.  They were again tangling with the Cardinals and Nationals for a free agent: Jason Heyward.  We’ll have more on the Heyward signing in the Deal Of Note section.

With the Cubs adding Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward,  the rich got richer.  Heyward was penciled in at a new position, center field, since Dexter Fowler was expected to sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Cubs already had Jorge Soler as the right field incumbent.  It appears that the Cubs kicked around a lot of trade possibilities, likely involving Soler and Baez.  Meanwhile, the team quietly re-added Trevor Cahill on a one-year deal.  Cahill turned down a more definitive rotation offer from the Pirates to stay with the Cubs, even though he seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen.  Cahill’s contract calls for incentives both for starts and relief appearances.  The 28-year-old first joined the Cubs in August on a minor league deal.  He pitched for the big league club in September and after a dominant month out of the pen became a key late-inning reliever in the playoffs.  The signing gives the Cubs four potential swingmen, along with Warren, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood.

As February came to a close, the Cubs’ offseason seemed to have reached a successful conclusion, as they were down to tinkering with free agents on minor league deals.  Then, in the course of a few hours, Epstein stunningly completed another multiple-bank shot.  First, news broke that outfielder Chris Coghlan, whose presence on the Cubs’ roster was already somewhat redundant, had been traded to Oakland for Aaron Brooks.  This trade seemed mostly about clearing Coghlan’s $4.8MM salary.  Coghlan, a free agent after 2016, raked right-handed pitching with a .277/.354/.478 line from 2014-15.  Brooks, meanwhile, will soon turn 26 and has yet to experience big league success.  He’s got an interesting change-up and could develop into a useful pitcher, but it was a light return for Coghlan.

Shortly after the Coghlan trade, the Cubs announced that center fielder Dexter Fowler had re-signed on a one-year deal.  Although media reports suggested Fowler had a multiyear agreement in place with the Orioles, Fowler, his agent, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette later said that was never the case.  Instead, Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal.  While it’s true the Cubs sacrificed another potential draft pick, Fowler basically fell into their laps.  Heyward is now penciled in at his natural right field position, Fowler returns in center, and the Cubs have a pair of highly-regarded young players in Soler and Kyle Schwarber in left field.

Continued analysis after the break …

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Out Of Options 2016

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors.  I’ve included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources when possible, but may be incomplete for some teams.  I’ll update the post as confirmed information comes in.

Angels

Daniel Nava, Johnny Giavotella, Todd Cunningham, Craig Gentry, Cory Rasmus, Deolis Guerra (Rule 5 also)

Astros

Mike Fiers

Athletics

Danny Valencia, Yonder Alonso, Felix Doubront, Stephen Vogt, Liam Hendriks

Blue Jays

Josh Thole, Josh Donaldson, Steve Delabar, Ezequiel Carrera, Junior Lake, Arnold Leon, A.J. Jimenez

Braves

Jose Ramirez

Brewers

Chris Carter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jeremy Jeffress, Tyler Thornburg, Jonathan Villar, Sean Nolin, Ariel Pena, Ramon Flores, Rymer Liriano

Cardinals

Tyler Lyons

Cubs

Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Neil Ramirez

Diamondbacks

Welington Castillo, Randall Delgado, Chris Herrmann

Dodgers

Louis Coleman, Chris Hatcher

Giants

George Kontos, Cory Gearrin, Ehire Adrianza, Hunter Strickland

Indians

Carlos Carrasco, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship, Dan Otero, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer

Mariners

Justin De Fratus, Leonys Martin, Evan Scribner, Steve Clevenger, Jesus Montero, Rob Brantly, Mike Montgomery

Marlins

Adeiny Hechavarria, Bryan Morris, Brad Hand

Mets

Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores

Nationals

Jose Lobaton, Tyler Moore, Clint Robinson

Orioles

Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Vance Worley, Brad Brach, Jimmy Paredes, Dylan Bundy

Padres

Tyson Ross, Christian Bethancourt, Drew Pomeranz, Nick Vincent, Brett Wallace

Phillies

Jeanmar Gomez, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer

Pirates

Juan Nicasio, Jeff Locke, Pedro Florimon, Arquimedes Caminero

Rangers

Justin Ruggiano, Chris Gimenez, Sam Freeman

Rays

Rene Rivera, Brandon Guyer, Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Archer, Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, Enny Romero

Red Sox

Tommy Layne, Steven Wright

Reds

Ivan De Jesus, Yorman Rodriguez, Blake Wood

Rockies

Jake McGee, Tyler Chatwood, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Rusin, Justin Miller, Cristhian Adames

Royals

Jarrod Dyson

Tigers

Andrew Romine, Jose Iglesias, Bryan Holaday

Twins

Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez, Tommy Milone, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin

White Sox

Jacob Turner, Dan Jennings, Jerry Sands, Zach Phillips

Yankees

Dustin Ackley, Austin Romine

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

This is the third entry in the Offseason In Review series.  You can also read our Reds and Rockies entries.

The White Sox addressed many different offseason needs without making big sacrifices to the team’s future.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • Nate Jones, RP: three years, $8MM.  Includes $4.65MM club option for 2019, $5.15MM club option for 2020, and $6MM mutual option for 2021, assuming Jones does not require right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

As explained in our October Offseason Outlook for the White Sox, the team had rampant needs this winter.  Let’s begin by examining how GM Rick Hahn upgraded baseball’s worst collection of position players.

Given all the work the White Sox had to do around the diamond, I didn’t feel the team had to make a change at catcher.  Hahn disagreed, and proceeded to sign Alex Avila, non-tender incumbent Tyler Flowers, and sign Dioner Navarro.  Is the new Avila-Navarro tandem better than Flowers and Geovany Soto?  White Sox catchers hit .230/.293/.376 last year, and Avila and Navarro should provide an offensive upgrade.  It seems likely that Flowers and Soto are better at pitch framing, however.  This change mostly looks like a wash.  The Sox also have out of options catcher Rob Brantly on the 40-man; he could wind up with another team.

Feb 27, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop <a rel=Alexei Ramirez served as Chicago’s starting shortstop for seven years.  That era ended when the White Sox declined his club option.  Tyler Saladino may still act as the bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, but the White Sox smartly added veteran Jimmy Rollins on a minor league deal as insurance.  The Sox acquired Brett Lawrie from Oakland to play second base, giving up a pair of arms ranked 18th and 23rd in their farm system by Baseball America.  The price was relatively meager, but it also reflects Lawrie’s failure to live up to expectations thus far in his Major League career.  The 26-year-old finally stayed healthy in 2015, but was barely above replacement level.  If Lawrie is able to bounce back defensively and remain healthy, I think there’s a 2-3 win player in there.  It was a reasonable gamble for Hahn, and Lawrie is under team control for 2017.

For the team’s third base vacancy, the White Sox landed the best available option in Todd Frazier.  I was surprised the Hahn was able to acquire two years of Frazier for Montas, Thompson, and Johnson.  Each of those young players has promise, of course, but the Sox didn’t have to surrender a blue-chip prospect or anyone they’d miss in 2016.  Over the last two years, Frazier has been one of the five best third basemen in the game.  He fits well with the team’s core of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Jose Abreu, and Eaton.

I felt that the White Sox should acquire two starting outfielders, pushing Melky Cabrera to the DH spot and Adam LaRoche and Avisail Garcia potentially off the roster.  The Sox showed December interest in Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes, but they reportedly did not want to exceed a three-year deal.  Cespedes ultimately did sign for three years, but at a hefty $25MM average annual value.  The Sox reportedly had interest in Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler once the calendar turned to 2016, offering Fowler a two-year deal worth more than $17MM.  In the end, Austin Jackson was signed just this week on an affordable one-year deal.  The Jackson signing wasn’t an exciting way to address the team’s outfield, but it does protect against the possible effects of Adam Eaton’s offseason shoulder surgery.  Eaton is not yet ready to play in the field, and has an injury history that suggests relying on him for 153 games again would be unwise.  The team also weakened its outfield depth by including Trayce Thompson in the Todd Frazier deal, so Jackson was sorely needed.  If Eaton, Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, and Jackson are healthy at the same time, it seems that Avisail Garcia will lose the most playing time, and that makes the team better.

As expected, the Sox let Jeff Samardzija leave via free agency, collecting a draft pick in the process.  In getting Mat Latos for just $3MM, Hahn signed the winter’s best pitching reclamation project at a small fraction of the projected cost.  The 28-year-old Latos was brilliant from 2010-13, and with good health he could return to form under pitching coach Don Cooper.

The Sox will return a similar bullpen for 2016, having re-signed Albers.  The bullpen will again by led by veterans David Robertson and Zach Duke, but will benefit from a full season from the newly-extended Nate Jones.  Turner was claimed off waivers in October, non-tendered in December, and re-signed a few days later.  Turner and Dan Jennings are out of minor league options, so they’ll either make the 25-man roster out of camp or be off the 40-man somehow.  Maybe the White Sox were simply content with their bullpen, or maybe their hands were tied financially given the $16MM they’ll be paying Robertson and Duke this year.

Questions Remaining

The outfield/designated hitter situation is the biggest remaining question for the White Sox.  The addition of Jackson is balanced by the loss of Thompson, so nothing was really done to address a group of players that provided very little value in 2015.  Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia were each below replacement level last year, and the team still needs to give a lot of playing time to at least two of them.  One more significant outfield addition would have gone a long way.

Latos helps the team’s rotation depth, but it’s difficult to guess how many good innings he’ll provide.  The White Sox have John Danks, Erik Johnson, and Jacob Turner as starters five through seven, all of whom project for ERAs around 5.00.  It’s unclear when top pitching prospect Carson Fulmer will be ready.  Further down the depth chart it might be Chris Beck and Scott Carroll.  Most teams aren’t thrilled about their eighth starter, but the Sox are thin after Sale, Quintana, and Rodon.

In general, a cautious yet active offseason will draw praise.  However, the flip side to bargain shopping is that you get less reliable players.  Yes, the White Sox addressed their middle infield situation, but Rollins and Lawrie were actually pretty bad in 2015.  Ian Desmond would have been a safer bet than Rollins.  Avila, Latos, and Lawrie can’t be replied upon to stay healthy; that’s part of the reason they came cheap.

Latos and Lawrie may have come cheap for another reason: both have had questions raised about their attitudes.  The White Sox have a long history of success bringing in some of the game’s bad boys, a point referenced by Hahn when MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince asked about Latos.  Still, Robin Ventura’s clubhouse this year will be worth monitoring.

Deal Of Note

In early November, I pegged Austin Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal.  Maybe I was just wrong from the start, but signing him for less than half of that amount is an excellent deal for the team.  Jackson hasn’t been an above average hitter since 2013, but he played a capable center field last year and could certainly be worth two wins again.  That’s easily worth $5MM.  Jackson will be in center field when he starts, pushing Adam Eaton to a corner spot and improving Chicago’s defense.  As an added bonus, the signing kept Jackson away from the division-rival Indians, who still lack outfield depth.  I don’t think the White Sox entered the offseason planning to wait until March for an outfield bargain, given their interest in other free agents and trade targets.  Staying disciplined on free agents is risky in its own way as the supply dries up.  If another team had signed Jackson this month, the White Sox outfield would be in a really bad place.

Overview

Rick Hahn must be applauded for his offseason, as he did so much without transferring a burden onto the team’s long-term future.  It’s fair to say Hahn helped get the White Sox into this mess through some of last winter’s free agent spending, but he has positioned them to be within spitting distance of a playoff spot for 2016.  With players like Lawrie, Rollins, Jackson, Cabrera, LaRoche, and Latos, you might think a lot of things need to go right for the White Sox to contend.  I don’t think that’s true, however.  Hahn’s veteran acquisitions raised the team’s floor considerably, and they shouldn’t have the dead roster spots they did last year.  Hopefully, the White Sox will take an aggressive approach toward the trade deadline, as the team could well be one player away.

Now, it’s your turn to grade the team’s offseason (click here if you’re using our app):

How Would You Grade The White Sox Offseason?

  • B 54% (3,662)
  • C 21% (1,439)
  • A 17% (1,158)
  • D 5% (332)
  • F 3% (212)

Total votes: 6,803

MLBTR Seeking Agency Data

We do our best here at MLBTR to keep an updated agency database.  However, there are always a few gaps.  Currently, I’m working on a project to determine how much 2015 WAR is represented by each agency, basically an update of this post.  However, we are lacking agency information for the 23 players listed below.  If you know who represents any of these players, please email us at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.  Also, if your agency has inaccurate info in our database, please let us know and we’ll correct it.  Thanks!

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