MLBTR is seeking people to test out our Android app, Trade Rumors. This free app has been available in the Play Store for a year now, but our upcoming release adds the ability to read and leave comments on the posts. We’re looking for people specifically to test the commenting feature. Also, it might be best if you’ve already been using the app for a while.
If you’d like to help out and test the new commenting feature within the app, please email us at mlbtrandroid@gmail.com.
Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.
Strengths/Pros
Upton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling. According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old. After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short. Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002. Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.
Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27. Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame. Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball. Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO. Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come. Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.
I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders. Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders. He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11. Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.
As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28. The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus. Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.
Weaknesses/Cons
Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him. He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago. Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more. Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years. You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year. Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.
Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game. He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often. Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.
Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average. Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year. I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.
Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture. This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.
Personal
Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. Justin grew up in a baseball family. His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02. Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez. It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19. Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013. He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior. Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.
Market
Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres. The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis. The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner. The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract. The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player. The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013. I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago. I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center. It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so. The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year. Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.
The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching. Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room. The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter. The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter. The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.
The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player. The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs. The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners. The Cubs also have more of a need at center field. The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.
Expected Contract
Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton. Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point. If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.
Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value. Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV. Something in the $20-22MM range could work. The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total. I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It’s time to give the free MLBTR email Newsletter a try! We’ll deliver an exclusive article to your inbox every week – no strings attached! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR. It’s completely free.
I’ll be honored if you give us your email address and join the thousands of MLBTR readers already enjoying the Newsletter. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list, and you can unsubscribe easily. My newest post, coming this afternoon, compares and contrasts free agent starters Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mike Leake. Sign up now! Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.
Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.
Strengths/Pros
Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game. He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013. He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball. Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012. A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching. From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers. Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.
Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime. Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter. Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.
Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman. He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years. He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.
Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes. Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014. He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.
Weaknesses/Cons
All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect. Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%. Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012. Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players. So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.
With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption. Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season. Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well. So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.
Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year. Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year. The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again? If so, how soon?” Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi. It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.
Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason. Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham. ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron. The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season. After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year. Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.
Market
The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid. The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits. There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play. A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch. Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position. Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.
Expected Contract
Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis. Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency. With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years. It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well. I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.
We’ve been obsessing over MLB free agency for nearly a decade here at MLB Trade Rumors, and this offseason is going to be a good one. The market features unprecedented starting pitching, with David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto. Sluggers Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton will be well-compensated, but Jason Heyward might top them all. Everything you need to track all of the signings can be found in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker for the 2015-16 offseason.
We’ll be updating the free agent tracker quickly after signings this winter, and you can filter by team, position, signing status, qualifying offer, contract years and amount, and handedness. Here’s the link again; let the roster-building begin!
By the way, you can catch all of the latest MLB news and rumors by following us on Twitter:
In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled. How many will fall this offseason, with nine potential $100MM free agents? Here’s our list of the largest contracts for each of the 30 teams. If you’d like a trip down memory lane, each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.
Another active offseason is in store for the White Sox, who find themselves with needs all over the diamond.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
Contract Options
Free Agents
I have difficulty criticizing Rick Hahn’s active 2014-15 offseason, as I was a fan of his moves and thought the White Sox would contend this year. However, major acquisitions Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija bombed. To compound matters, position players Avisail Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Alexei Ramirez were brutal as well. It’s almost freakish that so many players performed below expectations in the same year, and the result was an 86-loss season. That came on the heels of 89 losses in 2014 and 99 losses in 2013.
This team seems in too deep to blow it all up, plus they’ve still got a strong, affordable core. Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton generated about 18 wins above replacement in 2015, and will cost less than $30MM in 2016. That remains a fantastic bargain, so GM Rick Hahn needs to take another shot at complementing his core with the right veterans.
So, what can be done about baseball’s worst collection of position players, by measure of wins above replacement? Starting behind the dish, WAR doesn’t do Tyler Flowers justice, as he’s worked himself into one of the game’s best pitch framers. With so much work to do elsewhere on the diamond, retaining Flowers is a reasonable starting point. Geovany Soto, a minor league signing who worked out well, could be re-signed early in the offseason.
I don’t see much point in trying to sell low on Cabrera. This might be grasping at straws, but he at least showed signs of life in July, and the best bet for 2016 is to hope he can bounce back and supply a two-win season at age 31. Given Cabrera’s consistently poor defense, the team would be improved by having him spend the majority of his time at designated hitter. Abreu’s defense at first base is no longer a liability, and the team could reduce his DH games to 25 or so.
This alignment leaves LaRoche without a starting spot on the 2016 club. Hahn can spend the next few months searching for an interesting bad contract swap or a salary dump partner, and then release him if those efforts come up empty.
Though Avisail Garcia is only 24, it’s time to try someone else in right field. Hahn says he’s still confident in Garcia, but the team can’t afford another replacement level season as they hope for him to develop. Garcia should be shopped to rebuilding clubs for something useful this winter, and sent to Triple-A if no good offers come in. 2015 rookie Trayce Thompson is actually three months older than Garcia, but could land a starting outfield spot on the strength of a strong 135-plate appearance debut. It’s a red flag, however, that Thompson hit .260/.304/.441 at Triple-A. In a perfect world, he’d be penciled in for a fourth outfielder role next year.
The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out. The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season. There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources. There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, and Colby Rasmus. The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig. Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K. He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.
So outfield is wide open and in need of multiple acquisitions. The infield picture isn’t much better for the White Sox. The big question is whether to choose a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez’s improved second half suggests he might have another two-win season left in him, but at age 34 picking up his option would definitely be a gamble. I think the $9MM net price is only slightly above Ramirez’s market value, but the White Sox might not want to tie up that much payroll space in him.
There’s the idea of using 2015 rookie Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, though that’s a poor win-now plan. The free agent market offers Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins. Though Desmond himself had an off-year, I still see him pushing for a four or five-year contract, so I don’t see him as a fit for the Sox. A crosstown swap for Starlin Castro makes some sense. Castro, 26 in March, is signed through 2019 but could spend a few months at shortstop until Anderson is ready and then settle in as an above average second baseman. However, the Cubs may still like him for that role. In that case, Javier Baez could be a target.
Third base is another question mark for the White Sox. Saladino, Mike Olt, and Matt Davidson are in-house options. Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well. Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, and Luis Valbuena. One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.
This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson. It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips and Neil Walker looking like trade candidates. One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility. However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter. Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.
Once again, Sale and Quintana are locked in atop Chicago’s rotation, a duo that provided 415 strong innings this year. Danks’ contract makes him likely to hang around as the fifth starter. Rodon, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2014, joined the big league rotation on May 9th and recorded a 3.79 ERA in 23 starts. His control needs improvement, but it was a solid rookie effort. Samardzija isn’t likely to return, but making a qualifying offer is an easy decision. The Sox could replace Samardzija in-house with some combination of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.
Hahn probably won’t address all of his team’s needs through free agency, and it’s possible he’ll deal from the team’s pitching depth to acquire a position player. Assuming Sale remains off-limits, Quintana will be a popular target for other teams. Only a handful of position players would justify surrendering five affordable years of control of Quintana, Puig among them. I think Hahn is more likely to deal from his stash of unproven but mostly MLB-ready arms. It’s possible the team could add a low-level veteran starting pitcher in free agency if they compromise their rotation depth.
Hahn’s retooled bullpen was above average in 2015. There’s reason for further optimism in 2016. Robertson is better than his 3.41 ERA, and the Sox will enjoy a full season from Nate Jones. I imagine they’ll try to re-sign Albers, who came on a minor league deal and had a quality season despite missing three months in the middle with a broken finger.
Earlier this month, Hahn told reporters the team will be retaining Robin Ventura as manager for 2016. Given the way Ventura’s last three seasons have gone, however, he will likely be on a short leash entering the new season. Before then, expect plenty of offseason action for the White Sox, who have a laundry list of needs to address if they are to return to contention in 2016.
As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known. We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here. In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.
Angels (6)
Astros (8)
Athletics (15)
Blue Jays (9)
Braves (5)
Brewers (3)
Cardinals (7)
Cubs (8)
Diamondbacks (8)
Dodgers (9)
Giants (4)
Indians (7)
Mariners (3)
Marlins (9)
Mets (8)
Nationals (9)
Orioles (10)
Padres (8)
Phillies (4)
Pirates (9)
Rangers (10)
Rays (11)
Red Sox (5)
Reds (4)
Rockies (9)
Royals (8)
Tigers (5)
Twins (6)
White Sox (5)
Yankees (7)
*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.
Did you know it’s been five years since we changed the look of the desktop version of MLB Trade Rumors? As the site approaches its ten-year anniversary, we decided it’s time for something new. Thousands of you have already previewed this new design, and the response was positive.
Most of the changes we’ve made apply to the desktop and tablet versions of MLBTR:
What hasn’t changed, of course, is the core of the site. We’re still focused on bringing you the news and rumors as quickly as possible and providing context for all the information. And we’re sticking with one old-school quirk in our desktop design: full text of the latest articles, right on the homepage.
Please let us know your thoughts in the comments of this post, or contact us here or on Twitter. Thanks for reading MLB Trade Rumors.
The comments on my 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings got me thinking: where might Chris Davis sign this winter? So, I went team-by-team to find the plausible fits in this week’s newsletter. Sign up below now, and you’ll get the article later today! There are no strings attached with the MLBTR Newsletter; just a free article every week. Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link to sign up.
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information
scroll to top
